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1.
Climate change would significantly affect many hydrologic systems, which in turn would affect the water availability, runoff, and the flow in rivers. This study evaluates the impacts of possible future climate change scenarios on the hydrology of the catchment area of the Tunga–Bhadra River, upstream of the Tungabhadra dam. The Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System version 3.4 (HEC‐HMS 3.4) is used for the hydrological modelling of the study area. Linear‐regression‐based Statistical DownScaling Model version 4.2 (SDSM 4.2) is used to downscale the daily maximum and minimum temperature, and daily precipitation in the four sub‐basins of the study area. The large‐scale climate variables for the A2 and B2 scenarios obtained from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 are used. After model calibration and testing of the downscaling procedure, the hydrological model is run for the three future periods: 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2099. The impacts of climate change on the basin hydrology are assessed by comparing the present and future streamflow and the evapotranspiration estimates. Results of the water balance study suggest increasing precipitation and runoff and decreasing actual evapotranspiration losses over the sub‐basins in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Heavy rainfall events during the fall season are causing extended damages in Mediterranean catchments. A peaks‐over‐threshold model is developed for the extreme daily areal rainfall occurrence and magnitude in fall over six catchments in Southern France. The main driver of the heavy rainfall events observed in this region is the humidity flux (FHUM) from the Mediterranean Sea. Reanalysis data are used to compute the daily FHUM during the period 1958–2008, to be included as a covariate in the model parameters. Results indicate that the introduction of FHUM as a covariate can improve the modelling of extreme areal precipitation. The seasonal average of FHUM can improve the modelling of the seasonal occurrences of heavy rainfall events, whereas daily FHUM values can improve the modelling of the events magnitudes. In addition, an ensemble of simulations produced by five different general circulation models are considered to compute FHUM in future climate with the emission scenario A1B and hence to evaluate the effect of climate change on the heavy rainfall distribution in the selected catchments. This ensemble of climate models allows the evaluation of the uncertainties in climate projections. By comparison to the reference period 1960–1990, all models project an amplification of the mean seasonal FHUM from the Mediterranean Sea for the projection period 2070–2099, on average by +22%. This increase in FHUM leads to an increase in the number of heavy rainfall events, from an average of 2.55 events during the fall season in present climate to 3.57 events projected for the period 2070–2099. However, the projected changes have limited effects on the magnitude of extreme events, with only a 5% increase in the median of the 100‐year quantiles. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
A system has been installed to automatically monitor rainfall, streamflow, bedload discharge and suspended sediment concentration in the arid to hyper‐arid setting of Nahal Rahaf, Southern Judean Desert in Israel. The Rahaf gauging station is located in a relatively steep, wide channel with an unsteady bed driven by flash floods. It is an attempt to deploy modern automatic equipment for continuous sediment transport monitoring in harsh, arid fluvial environments. Unit bedload discharges are the highest recorded hitherto, suggesting they may represent an upper end member in the worldwide climate–bedload discharge relationship. Suspended sediment concentration is much higher than is typical of perennial fluvial humid environments. There is high correlation between suspended sediment concentration and water discharge on an event scale, with diverse intra‐event relations. The sediment yield of individual events is large, but the small number of floods limits the mean annual sediment yield to low values in this arid environment. This also has environmental implications, as large‐scale quarrying requires a long period of self‐restoration in such an arid fluvial setting. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
H. Moradkhani 《水文研究》2014,28(26):6292-6308
In this study the impact of climate change on runoff extremes is investigated over the Pacific Northwest (PNW). This paper aims to address the question of how the runoff extremes change in the future compared to the historical time period, investigate the different behaviors of the regional climate models (RCMs) regarding the runoff extremes and assess the seasonal variations of runoff extremes. Hydrologic modeling is performed by the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model at a 1/8° resolution and the model is driven by climate scenarios provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) including nine regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Analysis is performed for both the historical (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070) time periods. Downscaling of the climate variables including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature and wind speed is done using the quantile‐mapping (QM) approach. A spatial hierarchical Bayesian model is then developed to analyse the annual maximum runoff in different seasons for both historical and future time periods. The estimated spatial changes in extreme runoffs over the future period vary depending on the RCM driving the hydrologic model. The hierarchical Bayesian model characterizes the spatial variations in the marginal distributions of the General Extreme Value (GEV) parameters and the corresponding 100‐year return level runoffs. Results show an increase in the 100‐year return level runoffs for most regions in particular over the high elevation areas during winter. The Canadian portions of the study region reflect higher increases during spring. However, reduction of extreme events in several regions is projected during summer. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Anthropogenic climate change is expected to change the discharge and sediment transport regime of river systems. Because rivers adjust their channels to accommodate their typical inputs of water and sediment, changes in these variables can potentially alter river morphology. In this study, a hierarchical modeling approach was developed and applied to examine potential changes in reach‐averaged bedload transport and spatial patterns of erosion and deposition for three snowmelt‐dominated gravel‐bed rivers in the interior Pacific Northwest. The modeling hierarchy was based on discharge and suspended‐sediment load from a basin‐scale hydrologic model driven by a range of downscaled climate‐change scenarios. In the field, channel morphology and sediment grain‐size data for all three rivers were collected. Changes in reach‐averaged bedload transport were estimated using the Bedload Assessment of Gravel‐bedded Streams (BAGS) software, and the Cellular Automaton Evolutionary Slope and River (CAESAR) model was used to simulate the spatial pattern of erosion and deposition within each reach to infer potential changes in channel geometry and planform. The duration of critical discharge was found to control bedload transport. Changes in channel geometry were simulated for the two higher‐energy river reaches, but no significant morphological changes were found for a lower‐energy reach with steep, cohesive banks. Changes in sediment transport and river morphology resulting from climate change could affect the management of river systems for human and ecological uses. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
A large number of rivers are frozen annually, and the river ice cover has an influence on the geomorphological processes. These processes in cohesive sediment rivers are not fully understood. Therefore, this paper demonstrates the impact of river ice cover on sediment transport, i.e. turbidity, suspended sediment loads and erosion potential, compared with a river with ice‐free flow conditions. The present sediment transportation conditions during the annual cycle are analysed, and the implications of climate change on wintertime geomorphological processes are estimated. A one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Kokemäenjoki River in Southwest Finland. The shear stress forces directed to the river bed are simulated with present and projected hydroclimatic conditions. The results of shear stress simulations indicate that a thermally formed smooth ice cover diminishes river bed erosion, compared with an ice‐free river with similar discharges. Based on long‐term field data, the river ice cover reduces turbidity statistically significantly. Furthermore, suspended sediment concentrations measured in ice‐free and ice‐covered river water reveal a diminishing effect of ice cover on riverine sediment load. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that the influence of rippled ice cover on shear stress is varying. Climate change is projected to increase the winter discharges by 27–77% on average by 2070–2099. Thus, the increasing winter discharges and possible diminishing ice cover periods both increase the erosion potential of the river bed. Hence, the wintertime sediment load of the river is expected to become larger in the future. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
ABSTRACT

This study investigated the impacts of changes in land cover and climate on runoff and sediment yield in a river basin in India. Land Change Modeler was used to derive the future land cover and its changes using the Sankey diagram approach. The future climatic parameters were derived from five general circulation models for two emission scenarios with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The land cover and climate change impacts on runoff and sediment yield were estimated using SWAT model. The results show important changes in land cover and indicate that urban and agricultural areas strongly influence the runoff and sediment yield. Among the land cover and climate change impacts, climate has more predominant (70%–95%) impact. Runoff and sediment yield are likely to decrease in both RCP scenarios in the future period. The impacts of land cover changes are more prominent on sediment yield than runoff.  相似文献   

8.
《国际泥沙研究》2016,(3):212-219
In this paper, the site-specific impact of climate change on sediment yield has been assessed for the Naran watershed, Pakistan. Observed data has been gathered for period 1961–2010 and HaDCM3 GCM predictors of SRES scenarios A2 and B2 have been downloaded. Future precipitation and temperature time series have been statistically downscaled for time horizon 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Downscaled data show both increasing and decreasing changes with respect to the observation. Potential sediment yield for future related to climate change has been simulated. The results show that the both snowy and monsoon seasonal stream discharges are expected to increase. This will lead to increase in annual sus-pended sediment yields. Percentage-wise, a less discharge and more sediment yield are expected during the early summer. The study concluded that the climate change and variability are influencing the watershed, and suspended sediment yield is likely to increase in the future.  相似文献   

9.
Since the early 1990s, US Forest Service researchers have made thousands of bedload measurements in steep, coarse‐grained channels in Colorado and Wyoming, USA. In this paper we use data from 19 of those sites to characterize patterns and rates of coarse sediment transport for a range of channel types and sizes, including step–pool, plane‐bed, pool–riffle, and near‐braided channels. This effort builds upon previous work where we applied a piecewise regression model to (1) relate flow to rates of bedload transport and (2) define phases of transport in coarse‐grained channels. Earlier, the model was tested using bedload data from eight sites on the Fraser Experimental Forest near Fraser, Colorado. The analysis showed good application to those data and to data from four supplementary channels to which the procedure was applied. The earlier results were, however, derived from data collected at sites that, for the most part, have quite similar geology and runoff regimes. In this paper we evaluate further the application of piecewise regression to data from channels with a wider range of geomorphic conditions. The results corroborate with those from the earlier work in that there is a relatively narrow range of discharges at which a substantial change in the nature of bedload transport occurs. The transition from primarily low rates of sand transport (phase I) to higher rates of sand and coarse gravel transport (phase II) occurs, on average, at about 80 per cent of the bankfull (1·5‐year return interval) discharge. A comparison of grain sizes moved during the two phases showed that coarse gravel is rarely trapped in the samplers during phase I transport. Moreover, the movement and capture of the D16 to D25 grain size of the bed surface seems to correspond with the onset of phase II transport, particularly in systems with largely static channel surfaces. However, while there were many similarities in observed patterns of bedload transport at the 19 studied sites, each had its own ‘bedload signal’ in that the rate and size of materials transported largely reflected the nature of flow and sediment particular to that system. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
The composition, grain‐size, and flux of stream sediment evolve downstream in response to variations in basin‐scale sediment delivery, channel network structure, and diminution during transport. Here, we document downstream changes in lithology and grain size within two adjacent ~300 km2 catchments in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, which drain differing mixtures of soft and resistant rock types, and where measured sediment yields differ two‐fold. We use a simple erosion–abrasion mass balance model to predict the downstream evolution of sediment flux and composition using a Monte Carlo approach constrained by measured sediment flux. Results show that the downstream evolution of the bed sediment composition is predictably related to changes in underlying geology, influencing the proportion of sediment carried as bedload or suspended load. In the Big Wood basin, particle abrasion reduces the proportion of fine‐grained sedimentary and volcanic rocks, depressing bedload in favor of suspended load. Reduced bedload transport leads to stronger bed armoring, and coarse granitic rocks are concentrated in the stream bed. By contrast, in the North Fork Big Lost basin, bedload yields are three times higher, the stream bed is less armored, and bed sediment becomes dominated by durable quartzitic sandstones. For both basins, the geology‐based mass balance model can reproduce within ~5% root‐mean‐square error the composition of the bed substrate using realistic erosion and abrasion parameters. As bed sediment evolves downstream, bedload fluxes increase and decrease as a function of the abrasion parameter and the frequency and size of tributary junctions, while suspended load increases steadily. Variable erosion and abrasion rates produce conditions of variable bed‐material transport rates that are sensitive to the distribution of lithologies and channel network structure, and, provided sufficient diversity in bedrock geology, measurements of bed sediment composition allow for an assessment of sediment source areas and yield using a simple modeling approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Changes in climate may significantly affect how sediment moves through watersheds into harbours and channels that are dredged for navigation or flood control. Here, we applied a hydrologic model driven by a large suite of climate change scenarios to simulate both historical and future sediment yield and transport in two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Using historical dredging expenditure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, we then developed a pair of statistical models that link sediment discharge from each river to dredging costs at the watershed outlet. Although both watersheds show similar slight decreases in streamflow and sediment yield in the near‐term, by Mid‐Century, they diverge substantially. Dredging costs are projected to change in opposite directions for the two watersheds; we estimate that future dredging costs will decline in the St. Joseph River by 8–16% by Mid‐Century but increase by 1–6% in the Maumee River. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on sediment yield and dredging may vary significantly by watershed even within a region and that agricultural practices will play a large role in determining future streamflow and sediment loads. We also show that there are large variations in responses across climate projections that cause significant uncertainty in sediment and dredging projections.  相似文献   

12.
This study aims to analyse the combined impacts of future discharges and sea levels on erosion–sedimentation potential, and its seasonal changes, in a ~43‐km‐long coastal river reach of South‐west Finland. To our knowledge, this kind of combined study has not been performed before. In addition to surveying the present erosion–sedimentation conditions, the daily erosion–sedimentation potential is simulated with a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic model for the 1971–2000 and 2070–2099 periods by applying four discharge scenarios. Different sea level stages are also employed in the simulations. All scenarios forecast increasing autumn and winter discharges, but diminishing summer discharges. This indicates increasing river channel erosion, particularly during winters and autumns. Although discharge changes have altogether a greater influence on erosion–sedimentation potential, the importance of sea level changes on sedimentation is noticeable in the estuary. The rising sea level scenarios increase the sedimentation potential. In total, by 2070–2099, the erosion potential may increase in most parts of the study area. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
We report on bedload transport observations using piezoelectric bedload impact sensors (PBIS), an indirect method of estimating the volume of bedload transport of coarse sediment. The PBIS device registers vibrations produced by bedload (particle diameter >～20 mm) and records the signal as a sum of the number of impulses per time. Sediment transport at the Erlenbach stream has been continuously monitored with a PBIS array starting in 1986. The sensor array spans the width of an entire cross‐section and is mounted flush with the surface of a check dam immediately upstream of a sediment retention basin. We compare PBIS data with long‐term sedimentation records obtained from repeated surveys of material stored in the sediment retention basin, with artificial sediment input under controlled conditions in the field, and also with laboratory experiments. The rate of bedload transport is proportional to the number of impacts on the sensor per unit time. The reliability of the calibration relationship increases with the length of the observation period, e.g. for higher numbers of impacts and larger bedload volumes. Sediment volumes for individual flood events estimated with the PBIS method are in agreement with volumes estimated using an independent empirical method based on the effective runoff volume of water, the peak water discharge, and the critical discharge for the onset of sediment transport. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Efficiency of non‐point source pollution control methods may be altered in future climate. This study investigated climate change impacts on sediment and nutrient transport, and efficiency of best management practices (BMPs), in the Upper Pearl River Watershed (UPRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied to the UPRW using observed flow, sediment and nutrient data. Water quality samples were collected at three US geological survey gauging stations. The model was successfully calibrated and validated for daily time steps (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination – R2 up to 0.7) using manual and automatic (sequential uncertainty fitting version 2) methods from February 2010 to May 2011. Future weather scenarios were simulated using the LARS‐WG model, a stochastic weather generator, with Community Climate System Model, global climate model, which was developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in the USA. On the basis of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, climate change scenarios were simulated for the mid (2046–2065) and late (2080–2099) century. Effectiveness of four BMPs (Riparian buffer, stream fencing, sub‐surface manure applications and vegetative filter strips) on reducing sediment and nutrient were evaluated in current and future climate conditions. Results show that sediment, nitrogen and phosphorus loadings will be increased up to a maximum of 26.3%, 7.3% and 14.3%, respectively, in future climate conditions. Furthermore, the effectiveness of BMPs on sediment removal will be reduced in future climate conditions, and the efficiency of nitrogen removal will be increased, whereas phosphorus removal efficiency will remain unchanged. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Fluvial sediment transport in the high mountain Partnach River (Reintal Valley, Bavarian Alps) was investigated during a 10‐year observation period (2001–2010). During this period, the downstream reach of the Partnach River was decoupled from upstream sediment throughput by a rockslide deposit until 2005. In August 2005, the dam was partially breached during a flood event resulting in renewed sediment coupling between the upstream and downstream reaches. A comparison of pre‐ and post‐dambreak river sediment load data showed that the dissolved load dominated sediment transport prior to August 2005 with a switch to the dominance of bedload transport, post‐dambreak. The higher post‐dambreak bedload rates were particularly evident during the first years after the dam failure due to significant coarse material coupling between active sediment sources (undercut banks/talus cones) and the Partnach River. In the last years of the observation period (2009 and 2010) the dominance of dissolved load transport was re‐established. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Long‐term average rates of channel erosion and sediment transport depend on the frequency–magnitude characteristics of ?ood ?ows that exceed an erosion threshold. Using a Poisson model for rainfall and runoff, analytical solutions are developed for average rates of stream incision and sediment transport in the presence of such a threshold. Solutions are derived and numerically tested for three erosion/transport formulas: the Howard–Kerby shear‐stress incision model, the Bridge–Dominic sediment transport model, and a generic shear‐stress sediment transport model. Results imply that non‐linearity resulting from threshold effects can have a ?rst‐order impact on topography and patterns of dynamic response to tectonic and climate forcing. This non‐linearity becomes signi?cant when fewer than about half of ?ood events are capable of detaching rock or sediment. Predicted morphology and uplift‐gradient scaling is more closely consistent with observations and laboratory experiments than conventional slope‐linear or shear‐linear erosion laws. These results imply that particle detachment thresholds are not details that can be conveniently ignored in long‐term landscape evolution models. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
A comprehensive monitoring programme focusing on bedload transport behaviour was conducted at a large gravel‐bed river. Innovative monitoring strategies were developed during five years of preconstruction observations accompanying a restoration project. A bedload basket sampler was used to perform 55 cross‐sectional measurements, which cover the entire water discharge spectrum from a 200‐year flood event in 2013 to a rare low flow event. The monitoring activities provide essential knowledge regarding bedload transport processes in large rivers. We have identified the initiation of motion under low flow conditions and a decrease in the rate of bedload discharge with increasing water discharge around bankfull conditions. Bedload flux strongly increases again during high flood events when the entire inundation area is flooded. No bedload hysteresis was observed. The effective discharge for bedload transport was determined to be near mean flow conditions, which is therefore at a lower flow discharge than expected. A numerical sediment transport model was able to reproduce the measured sediment transport patterns. The unique dataset enables the characterisation of bedload transport patterns in a large and regulated gravel‐bed river, evaluation of modern river engineering measures on the Danube, and, as a pilot project has recently been under construction, is able to address ongoing river bed incision, unsatisfactory ecological conditions for the adjacent national park and insufficient water depths for inland navigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
This paper examines the impacts of climate change on future water yield with associated uncertainties in a mountainous catchment in Australia using a multi‐model approach based on four global climate models (GCMs), 200 realisations (50 realisations from each GCM) of downscaled rainfalls, 2 hydrological models and 6 sets of model parameters. The ensemble projections by the GCMs showed that the mean annual rainfall is likely to reduce in the future decades by 2–5% in comparison with the current climate (1987–2012). The results of ensemble runoff projections indicated that the mean annual runoff would reduce in future decades by 35%. However, considerable uncertainty in the runoff estimates was found as the ensemble results project changes of the 5th (dry scenario) and 95th (wet scenario) percentiles by ?73% to +27%, ?73% to +12%, ?77% to +21% and ?80% to +24% in the decades of 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2061–2070 and 2071–2080, respectively. Results of uncertainty estimation demonstrated that the choice of GCMs dominates overall uncertainty. Realisation uncertainty (arising from repetitive simulations for a given time step during downscaling of the GCM data to catchment scale) of the downscaled rainfall data was also found to be remarkably high. Uncertainty linked to the choice of hydrological models was found to be quite small in comparison with the GCM and realisation uncertainty. The hydrological model parameter uncertainty was found to be lowest among the sources of uncertainties considered in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Sediment transport during flood events often reveals hysteretic patterns because flow discharge can peak before (counterclockwise hysteresis) or after (clockwise hysteresis) the peak of bedload. Hysteresis in sediment transport has been used in the literature to infer the degree of sediment availability. Counterclockwise and clockwise hysteresis have been in fact interpreted as limited and unlimited sediment supply conditions, respectively. Hysteresis has been mainly explored for the case of suspended sediment transport, but it was rarely reported for bedload transport in mountain streams. This work focuses on the temporal variability of bedload transport in an alpine catchment (Saldur basin, 18.6 km2, Italian Alps) where bedload transport was monitored by means of an acoustic pipe sensor which detects the acoustic vibrations induced by particles hitting a 0.5m‐long steel pipe. Runoff dynamics are dominated by snowmelt in late spring/early summer, mostly by glacier melt in late summer/early autumn, and by a combination of the snow and glacier melt in mid‐summer. The results indicate that hysteretic patterns during daily discharge fluctuations are predominantly clockwise during the snowmelt period, likely due to the ready availability of unpacked sediments within the channel or through bank erosion in the lower part of the basin. On the contrary, counterclockwise hysteresis tend to be more frequent during late glacier melting period, possibly due to the time lag needed for sediment provided by the glacial and peri‐glacial area to be transported to the monitoring section. However, intense rainfall events occurring during the glacier melt period generated predominantly clockwise hysteresis, thus indicating the activation of different sediment sources. These results indicate that runoff generation processes play a crucial role on sediment supply and temporal availability in mountain streams. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):100-111
Abstract

The runoff of Iceland has been evaluated for the period 1961–1990, and changes in runoff from then to the period 2071–2100 predicted according to a future projection of climate change. The hydrological model WASIM-ETH was used, with meteorological data from the PSU/NCAR MM5 numerical weather model. The evaluation of the effects of climate change on water resources was based on a future climate simulation from the HIRHAM regional climate model with boundary conditions from the HadAM3H global climate model using A2 and B2 emissions scenarios. Future runoff was shown to become much higher in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990, predominantly due to increased glacial melt caused by increased temperature. Furthermore, changes in runoff seasonality would be substantial. Thus, according to this projection there could be great changes in hydropower production potential associated with climate change in Iceland.  相似文献   

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