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1.
It is widely recognized nowadays that there are at least two different phases of bedload sediment transport in gravel‐bed rivers. However, the transition between these phases is still poorly or subjectively defined, especially at bends in rivers, where cross‐stream sediment transport can strongly influence changes in the texture of the transported sediment. In this paper, we use piecewise models to identify objectively, at two points in the cross‐section of a river bend, the discharge at which the transition between bedload transport phases occurs. Piecewise models were applied to a new bedload data set collected during a wide range of discharges while analysing the associated changes in sediment texture. Results allowed the identification of two well‐differentiated phases of sediment transport (phase I and phase II), with a breakpoint located around bankfull discharge. Associated with each phase there was a change in bedload texture. In phase I there was non‐dominance in the transport of fine or coarse fractions at a particular sampling point; but in phase II bedload texture was strongly linked to the position of the sampling point across the channel. In this phase, fine particles tended to be transported to the inner bank, while coarse sizes were transferred throughout the middle parts of the channel. Moreover, bedload texture at the inner sampling point became bimodal while the transport of pebble‐sized particles was increasing in the central parts of the river channel. It is suggested that this general pattern may be related both to secondary currents, which transfer finer particles from the outer to the inner bank, and to the progressive dismantling of the riverbed surface layer. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
The variability in the morphological active width: Results from physical models of gravel‐bed braided rivers 
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下载免费PDF全文 The morphological active width, defined as the lateral extent of bed material displacement over time, is a fundamental parameter in multi‐threaded gravel‐bed rivers, linking complex channel dynamics to bedload transport. Here, results are presented from five constant discharge experiments, and three event hydrographs, covering a range of flow strengths and channel configurations for which morphological change, bedload transport rates, and stream power were measured in a physical model. Changes in channel morphology were determined via differencing of photogrammetrically‐derived digital elevation models (DEMs) of the model surface generated at regular intervals over the course of ~115 h of experimental runs. Independent measures of total bedload output were made using downstream sediment baskets. Results indicate that the morphological active width increases with total and dimensionless stream power and is strongly and positively correlated with bulk change (total volume of bed material displaced over time) and active braiding intensity (ABI). Although there is considerable scatter due to the inherent variability in braided river morphodynamics, the active width is positively correlated with independent measurements of bedload transport rate. Active width, bulk change, and bedload transport rates were all negligible below a dimensionless stream power threshold value of ~ 0.09, above which all increase with flow strength. Therefore, the active width could be used as a general predictor of bulk change and bedload transport rates, which in turn could be approximated from total and dimensionless stream power or ABI in gravel‐bed braided rivers. Furthermore, results highlight the importance of the active width, rather than the morphological active depth, in predicting volumes of change and bedload transport rates. The results contribute to the larger goals of better understanding braided river morphodynamics, creating large high‐resolution datasets of channel change for model calibration and validation, and developing morphological methods for predicting bedload transport rates in braiding river systems. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
The relation between morphological change and patterns of variation in bedload transport rate in braided streams was observed by repeated, daily topographic surveys over a 25 day study period in a 60 m reach of the proglacial Sunwapta River, Alberta, Canada. There are two major periods of morphological change, each lasting several days and each involving the complete destruction and reconstruction of bar complexes. Bar complex destruction was caused by redirection of the flow and by downstream extension of the confluence scour zone upstream. Reconstruction involved accretion of unit bars on bar head, flank and tail and in one case was initiated by disection of a large, lobate unit bar. High rates of sediment movement, measured from net scour and fill of the cross-sections, coincided with these morphological changes. Sediment was supplied from both bed and bank erosion, and patterns and distances of transfer were highly variable. Rates of transport estimated by matching upstream erosional volumes with downstream deposition were much greater than those estimated from either a step-length approach or a sediment budget. Measurements of scour and fill and observations of morphological change indicate that step lengths (virtual transport distances) were typically 40–100m during a diurnal discharge cycle. Shorter step lengths occurred when transfer was confined to a single anabranch and longer steps involved channel changes at the scale of the entire reach. Sediment budgeting was used to describe the spatial patterns of sediment transport associated with the morphological changes and to estimate minimum daily reach-averaged transport rates. Mean bedload transport rates correlate with discharge, but with considerable scatter. The largest deviations from the mean relation can be tied to phases of channel incision, bank erosion, scour hole migration, bar deposition and channel filling apparently controlled by changes and fluctuations in sediment supply from upstream, independent of discharge. These are interpreted as field evidence of ‘autopulses’ or ‘macropulses’ in bedload transport, previously observed only in laboratory models of braided streams. 相似文献
4.
As with most Italian rivers, the Reno River has a long history of human modification, related also to morphological changes of the lower Po River since Roman times, but in the last decades, significant land use changes in the headwaters, dam construction, torrent control works and extensive bed material mining have caused important channel morphology and sediment budget changes. In this paper, two main types of channel adjustment, riverbed incision and channel narrowing, are analysed. Riverbed degradation is discussed by comparing four different longitudinal profiles surveyed in 1928, 1951, 1970 and 1998 in the 120 km long reach upstream of the outlet. The analysis of channel narrowing is carried out by comparing a number of cross‐sections surveyed in different years across the same downstream reach. Field sediment transport measurements of seven major floods that occurred between 2003 and 2006 are compared with the bedload transport rates predicted by the most renowned equations. The current low bedload yield is discussed in terms of sediment supply limited conditions due to land use changes, erosion‐control works and extensive and out of control bed material mining that have affected the Reno during the last decades. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
We report bedload data and acoustic impulse measurements due to particle impact from the Pitzbach in Austria. Impulse counts can be viewed as a measure of the energy delivered to the bed by moving particles. Impulse counts show a large scatter even for the same discharge and bedload supply. This scatter is due to varying grain size distribution, grain shape, mode of transport of the sediment particles and spatial and temporal distribution of the sediment load. The mean impulse count at given hydraulic conditions may increase or decrease with increasing sediment supply, suggesting that both tools and cover effects are active on the channel bed. Dependent on the local balance between sediment supply and transport capacity, either effect may be dominant at different locations along the cross‐section at the same time. Furthermore, the same bed location may respond to increasing sediment supply as tools‐dominated at some discharges and cover‐dominated at other discharges. Our observations may have implications for modelling of bedrock erosion in landscape evolution models and of bedrock channel morphology. Erosion models that do not incorporate both tools and cover effects are not sufficient to describe observations. Furthermore, a local erosion law cannot in general be used to describe erosion averaged over the channel cross‐section. The changing balance between sediment supply and transport capacity with increasing discharge highlights that a single representative discharge is not sufficient to capture the full erosion dynamics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
This paper presents a field investigation on river channel storage of fine sediments in an unglaciated braided river, the Bès River, located in a mountainous region in the southern French Prealps. Braided rivers transport a very large quantity of bedload and suspended sediment load because they are generally located in the vicinity of highly erosive hillslopes. Consequently, these rivers play an important role because they supply and control the sediment load of the entire downstream fluvial network. Field measurements and aerial photograph analyses were considered together to evaluate the variability of fine sediment quantity stored in a 2·5‐km‐long river reach. This study found very large quantities of fine sediment stored in this reach: 1100 t per unit depth (1 dm). Given that this reach accounts for 17% of the braided channel surface area of the river basin, the quantities of fine sediment stored in the river network were found to be approximately 80% of the mean annual suspended sediment yields (SSYs) (66 200 t year?1), comparable to the SSYs at the flood event scale: from 1000 t to 12 000 t depending on the flood event magnitude. These results could explain the clockwise hysteretic relationships between suspended sediment concentrations and discharges for 80% of floods. This pattern is associated with the rapid availability of the fine sediments stored in the river channel. This study shows the need to focus on not only the mechanisms of fine sediment production from hillslope erosion but also the spatiotemporal dynamics of fine sediment transfer in braided rivers. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
We describe additions made to a multi‐size sediment routing model enabling it to simulate width adjustment simultaneously alongside bed aggradation/incision and fining/coarsening. The model is intended for use in single thread gravel‐bed rivers over annual to decadal timescales and for reach lengths of 1–10 km. It uses a split‐channel approach with separate calculations of flow and sediment transport in the left and right sides of the channel. Bank erosion is treated as a function of excess shear stress with bank accretion occurring when shear stress falls below a second, low, threshold. A curvature function redistributes shear stress to either side of the channel. We illustrate the model through applications to a 5·6‐km reach of the upper River Wharfe in northern England. The sediment routing component with default parameter values gives excellent agreement with field data on downstream fining and down‐reach reduction in bedload flux, and the width‐adjustment components with approximate calibration to match maximum observed rates of bank shifting give plausible patterns of local change. The approach may be useful for exploring interactions between sediment delivery, river management and channel change in upland settings. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Recent research in fluvial geomorphology has emphasized the spatially distributed feedbacks amongst river channel topography, flow hydraulics and sediment transport. Although understanding of the behaviour of dynamic river channels has been increased markedly through detailed within-channel process studies, less attention has been given to the accurate monitoring and terrain modelling of river channel form using three-dimensional measurements. However, such information is useful in two distinct senses. Firstly, it is one of the necessary boundary conditions for a physically based, deterministic modelling approach in which three-dimensional topography and river discharge drive within-channel flow hydraulics and ultimately spatial patterns of erosion and deposition and therefore channel change. Secondly, research has shown that an alternative means of estimating the medium-term bedload transport rate can be based upon monitoring spatial patterns of erosion and deposition within the river channel. This paper presents a detailed assessment of the distributed monitoring and terrain modelling of river bed topography using a technique that combines rigorous analytical photogrammetry with rapid ground survey. The availability of increasingly sophisticated terrain modelling packages developed for civil engineering application allows the representation of topographic information as a landform surface. Intercomparison of landform surfaces allows visualization and quantification of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition. A detailed assessment is undertaken of the quality of the morphological information acquired. This allow some general comments to be made concerning the use of more traditional methods to monitor and represent small-scale river channel morphology. 相似文献
9.
Natural bedrock rivers flow in self‐formed channels and form diverse erosional morphologies. The parameters that collectively define channel morphology (e.g. width, slope, bed roughness, bedrock exposure, sediment size distribution) all influence river incision rates and dynamically adjust in poorly understood ways to imposed fluid and sediment fluxes. To explore the mechanics of river incision, we conducted laboratory experiments in which the complexities of natural bedrock channels were reduced to a homogenous brittle substrate (sand and cement), a single sediment size primarily transported as bedload, a single erosion mechanism (abrasion) and sediment‐starved transport conditions. We find that patterns of erosion both create and are sensitive functions of the evolving bed topography because of feedbacks between the turbulent flow field, sediment transport and bottom roughness. Abrasion only occurs where sediment impacts the bed, and so positive feedback occurs between the sediment preferentially drawn to topographic lows by gravity and the further erosion of these lows. However, the spatial focusing of erosion results in tortuous flow paths and erosional forms (inner channels, scoops, potholes), which dissipate flow energy. This energy dissipation is a negative feedback that reduces sediment transport capacity, inhibiting further incision and ultimately leading to channel morphologies adjusted to just transport the imposed sediment load. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Bedload and river morphology interact in a strong feedback manner. Bedload conditions the development of river morphology along different space and time scales; however, by concentrating the flow in preferential paths, a given morphology controls bedload for a given discharge. As bedload is a non‐linear response of shear stress, local morphology is likely to have a strong impact on bedload prediction when the shear stress is averaged over the section, as is usually done. This was investigated by comparing bedload measured in different bed morphologies (step‐pool, plane bed, riffle‐pool, braiding, and sand beds), with bedload measured in narrow flumes in the absence of any bed form, used here as a reference. The initial methodology consisted of fitting a bedload equation to the flume data. Secondly, the morphological signature of each river was studied as the distance to this referent equation. It was concluded that each morphology affects bedload in a different way. For a given average grain shear stress, the larger the river, the larger the deviation from the flume transport. Narrow streams are those morphologies that behave more like flumes; this is particularly true with flat beds, whereas results deviate from flumes to a greater extent in step‐pools. The riffle‐pool's morphology impacts bedload at different levels depending on the degree of bar development, considered here through the ratio D84/D50 which is used as a proxy for the local bed patchiness and morphology. In braiding rivers morphological effects are important but difficult to assess because width is dependent on transport rate. Bed morphology was found to have negligible effects in sand bed rivers where the Shields stress is usually sufficiently high to minimize the non‐linearity effects when hydraulics is averaged over the section. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
The HIRHAM regional climate model suggests an increase in temperature in Denmark of about 3 °C and an increase in mean annual precipitation of 6–7%, with a larger increase during winter and a decrease during summer between a control period 1961–1990 and scenario period 2071–2100. This change of climate will affect the suspended sediment transport in rivers, directly through erosion processes and increased river discharges and indirectly through changes in land use and land cover. Climate‐change‐induced changes in suspended sediment transport are modelled for five scenarios on the basis of modelled changes in land use/land cover for two Danish river catchments: the alluvial River Ansager and the non‐alluvial River Odense. Mean annual suspended sediment transport is modelled to increase by 17% in the alluvial river and by 27% in the non‐alluvial for steady‐state scenarios. Increases by about 9% in the alluvial river and 24% in the non‐alluvial river were determined for scenarios incorporating a prolonged growing season for catchment vegetation. Shortening of the growing season is found to have little influence on mean annual sediment transport. Mean monthly changes in suspended sediment transport between ? 26% and + 68% are found for comparable suspended sediment transport scenarios between the control and the scenario periods. The suspended sediment transport increases during winter months as a result of the increase in river discharge caused by the increase in precipitation, and decreases during summer and early autumn months. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
13.
Marcel Liedermann Philipp Gmeiner Andrea Kreisler Michael Tritthart Helmut Habersack 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(2):514-523
A comprehensive monitoring programme focusing on bedload transport behaviour was conducted at a large gravel‐bed river. Innovative monitoring strategies were developed during five years of preconstruction observations accompanying a restoration project. A bedload basket sampler was used to perform 55 cross‐sectional measurements, which cover the entire water discharge spectrum from a 200‐year flood event in 2013 to a rare low flow event. The monitoring activities provide essential knowledge regarding bedload transport processes in large rivers. We have identified the initiation of motion under low flow conditions and a decrease in the rate of bedload discharge with increasing water discharge around bankfull conditions. Bedload flux strongly increases again during high flood events when the entire inundation area is flooded. No bedload hysteresis was observed. The effective discharge for bedload transport was determined to be near mean flow conditions, which is therefore at a lower flow discharge than expected. A numerical sediment transport model was able to reproduce the measured sediment transport patterns. The unique dataset enables the characterisation of bedload transport patterns in a large and regulated gravel‐bed river, evaluation of modern river engineering measures on the Danube, and, as a pilot project has recently been under construction, is able to address ongoing river bed incision, unsatisfactory ecological conditions for the adjacent national park and insufficient water depths for inland navigation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
In mixed bedrock–alluvial rivers, the response of the system to a flood event can be affected by a number of factors, including coarse sediment availability in the channel, sediment supply from the hillslopes and upstream, flood sequencing and coarse sediment grain size distribution. However, the impact of along-stream changes in channel width on bedload transport dynamics remains largely unexplored. We combine field data, theory and numerical modelling to address this gap. First, we present observations from the Daan River gorge in western Taiwan, where the river flows through a 1 km long 20–50 m wide bedrock gorge bounded upstream and downstream by wide braidplains. We documented two flood events during which coarse sediment evacuation and redeposition appear to cause changes of up to several metres in channel bed elevation. Motivated by this case study, we examined the relationships between discharge, channel width and bedload transport capacity, and show that for a given slope narrow channels transport bedload more efficiently than wide ones at low discharges, whereas wider channels are more efficient at high discharges. We used the model sedFlow to explore this effect, running a random sequence of floods through a channel with a narrow gorge section bounded upstream and downstream by wider reaches. Channel response to imposed floods is complex, as high and low discharges drive different spatial patterns of erosion and deposition, and the channel may experience both of these regimes during the peak and recession periods of each flood. Our modelling suggests that width differences alone can drive substantial variations in sediment flux and bed response, without the need for variations in sediment supply or mobility. The fluctuations in sediment transport rates that result from width variations can lead to intermittent bed exposure, driving incision in different segments of the channel during different portions of the hydrograph. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd 相似文献
15.
Existing riverbank riprap could face the risk of failure if the flood regime changes in future. Additionally, changed sediment transport in rivers, as a possible result of climate change, impacts the failure risk of flood protection measures. Evaluation of this potential failure is the primary issue of riprap stability and safety assessment. The consequences of the bank failure are probably uncontrolled erosion and flooding with disastrous consequences in residential areas or damage to infrastructures. Thus, a probabilistic analysis of riprap failure considering different mechanisms due to the flood and sediment transport uncertainties is required to assess embankment stability. In this article, the concept of a probabilistic assessment model based on Monte Carlo simulation method, moment analysis methods, and Rosenblueth point estimation method are presented to define the failure risk of riprap as the river bank protection. The probability of failure in different modes, namely direct block erosion, toe scouring and overtopping, has been defined by taking into account the river bed level variation based on bedload transport described with a probabilistic function of the peak discharge. The result of three models comparison revealed a good agreement (the average deviation of less than 2%) in estimation of riprap failure probability. This model is a strategical tool to search the critical river reaches and helps to evaluate the risk maps. So that, the model could cover the engineering aspect of environmental stability in the rivers with riprap as the bank protections. 相似文献
16.
《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(6):723-735
This numerical modeling study (i) assesses the influence of the sediment erosion process on the sediment dynamics and subsequent morphological changes of a mixed-sediment environment, the macrotidal Seine estuary, when non-cohesive particles are dominant within bed mixtures (non-cohesive regime), and (ii) investigates respective contributions of bedload and suspended load in these dynamics. A three dimensional (3D) process-based morphodynamic model was set up and run under realistic forcings (including tide, waves, wind, and river discharge) during a 1-year period. Applying erosion homogeneously to bed sediment in the non-cohesive regime, i.e., average erosion parameters in the erosion law (especially the erodibility parameter, E0), leads to higher resuspension of fine sediment due to the presence of coarser fractions within mixtures, compared to the case of an independent treatment of erosion for each sediment class. This results in more pronounced horizontal sediment flux (two-fold increase for sand, +30% for mud) and erosion/deposition patterns (up to a two-fold increase in erosion over shoals, generally associated with some coarsening of bed sediment). Compared to observed bathymetric changes, more relevant erosion/deposition patterns are derived from the model when independent resuspension fluxes are considered in the non-cohesive regime. These results suggest that this kind of approach may be more relevant when local grain-size distributions become heterogeneous and multimodal for non-cohesive particles. Bedload transport appears to be a non-dominant but significant contributor to the sediment dynamics of the Seine Estuary mouth. The residual bedload flux represents, on average, between 17 and 38% of the suspended sand flux, its contribution generally increasing when bed sediment becomes coarser (can become dominant at specific locations). The average orientation of residual fluxes and erosion/deposition patterns caused by bedload generally follow those resulting from suspended sediment dynamics. Sediment mass budgets cumulated over the simulated year reveal a relative contribution of bedload to total mass budgets around 25% over large erosion areas of shoals, which can even become higher in sedimentation zones. However, bedload-induced dynamics can locally differ from the dynamics related to suspended load, resulting in specific residual transport, erosion/deposition patterns, and changes in seabed nature. 相似文献
17.
Eliisa Lotsari David Wainwright Geoffrey D. Corner Petteri Alho Jukka Käyhkö 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2685-2716
Field measurements and morphodynamic simulations were carried out along a 5‐km reach of the sandy, braided, lower Tana River in order to detect temporal and spatial variations in river bed modifications and to determine the relative importance of different magnitude discharges on river bed and braid channel evolution during a time span of one year, i.e. 2008–2009. Fulfilling these aims required testing the morphodynamic model's capability to simulate changes in the braided reach. We performed the simulations using a 2‐D morphodynamic model and different transport equations. The survey showed that more deposition than erosion occurred during 2008–2009. Continuous bed‐load transport and bed elevation changes of ±1 m, and a 70–188‐m downstream migration of the thalweg occurred. Simulation results indicated that, during low water periods, modifications occurred in both the main channel and in other braid channels. Thus, unlike some gravel‐bed rivers, the sandy lower Tana River does not behave like a single‐thread channel at low discharge. However, at higher discharge, i.e. exceeding 497 m3/s, the river channel resembled a single‐thread channel when channel banks confined the flow. Although the spring discharge peaks caused more rapid modifications than slower flows, the cumulative volumetric changes of the low water period were greater. The importance of low water period flows for channel modifications is emphasized. Although the 2‐D model requires further improvements, the results were nevertheless promising for the future use of this approach in braided rivers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
The response of a gravel‐bed river planform configuration to flow variations and bed reworking: a modelling study 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 A 2D depth‐averaged model has been developed for simulating water flow, sediment transport and morphological changes in gravel‐bed rivers. The model was validated with a series of laboratory experiments and then applied to the Nove reach of the Brenta River (Northern Italy) to assess its bed material transport, interpret channel response to a series of intensive flood events (R.I. ≈ 10 years) and provide a possible evolutionary scenario for the medium term. The study reach is 1400 m long with a mean slope of 0.0039 m m?1. High‐resolution digital terrain models were produced combining LiDAR data with colour bathymetry techniques. Extensive field sedimentological surveys were also conducted for surface and subsurface material. Data were uploaded in the model and the passage of two consecutive high intensity floods was simulated. The model was run under several hypotheses of sediment supply: one considering substantial equilibrium between sediment input and transport capacity, and the others reducing the sediment supply. The sediment supply was then calibrated comparing channel morphological changes as observed in the field and calculated by the model. Annual bed material transport was assessed and compared with other techniques. Low‐frequency floods (R.I. ≈ 1.5 years) are expected to produce negligible changes in the channel while high floods may erode banks rather than further incising the channel bed. Location and distribution of erosion and deposition areas within the Nove reach were predicted with acceptable biases stemming from imperfections of the model and the specified initial, boundary and forcing conditions. A medium‐term evolutionary scenario simulation underlined the different response to and impact of a consecutive sequence of floods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Physics‐based models have been increasingly developed in recent years and applied to simulate the braiding process and evolution of channel units in braided rivers. However, limited attention is given to lowland braided rivers where the transport of suspended sediment plays a dominant role. In the present study, a numerical model based on the basic physics laws of hydrodynamics and sediment transport is used to simulate the evolution process of a braided river dominated by suspended load transport. The model employs a fractional method to simulate the transport of graded sediments and uses a multiple‐bed‐layer approach to represent the sediment sorting process. An idealized braided river has been produced, with the hydrodynamic, sediment transport and morphological processes being analysed. In particular, the formation process of local pool–bar units in the predicted river has been investigated. A sensitivity analysis has also been undertaken to investigate the effects of grid resolution and an upstream perturbation on the model prediction. A variety of methods are applied to analyse the geometrical and topographical properties of the modelled river. Self‐organizing characteristics related to river geometry and topography are analysed by state‐space plots, which indicate a close relationship with the periodical erosion and deposition cycles of braiding. Cross‐sectional topography and slope frequency display similar geometries to natural rivers. Scaling characteristics are found by correlation analysis of bar parameters. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
The impacts of climate‐induced changes in discharge and base level in three tributaries of the Saint‐Lawrence River, Québec, Canada, are modelled for the period 2010–2099 using a one‐dimensional morphodynamic model. Changes in channel stability and bed‐material delivery to the Saint‐Lawrence River over this period are simulated for all combinations of seven tributary hydrological regimes (present‐day and those predicted using three global climate models and two greenhouse gas emission scenarios) and three scenarios of how the base level provided by the Saint‐Lawrence River will alter (no change, gradual fall, step fall). Even with no change in base level the projected discharge scenarios lead to an increase in average bed material delivery for most combinations of river and global climate model, although the magnitude of simulated change depends on the choice of global climate model and the trend over time seems related to whether the river is currently aggrading, degrading or in equilibrium. The choice of greenhouse gas emission scenario makes much less difference than the choice of global climate model. As expected, a fall in base level leads to degradation in the rivers currently aggrading or in equilibrium, and amplifies the effects of climate change on sediment delivery to the Saint‐Lawrence River. These differences highlight the importance of investigating several rivers using several climate models in order to determine trends in climate change impacts. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献