首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The rapid development of cities in developing countries results in deteriorating of agricultural lands. The majority of these agricultural lands are converted to urban areas, which affects the ecosystems. In this research, an integrated model of Markov chain and cellular automata models was applied to simulate urban land use changes and to predict their spatial patterns in Tripoli metropolitan area, Libya. It is worth mentioning that there is not much research has been done about land use/cover change in Libyan cities. In this study, the performance of integrated CA–Markov model was assessed. Firstly, the Markov chain model was used to simulate and predict the land use change quantitatively; then, the CA model was applied to simulate the dynamic spatial patterns of changes explicitly. The urban land use change from 1984 to 2010 was modelled using the CA–Markov model for calibration to compute optimal transition rules and to predict future land use change. In validation process, the model was validated using Kappa index statistics which resulted in overall accuracy more than 85 %. Finally, based on transition rules and transition area matrix produced from calibration process, the future land use changes of 2020 and 2025 were predicted and mapped. The findings of this research showed reasonably good performance of employed model. The model results demonstrate that the study area is growing very rapidly especially in the recent decade. Furthermore, this rapid urban expansion results in remarkable continuous decrease of agriculture lands.  相似文献   

2.
This paper describes the spatiotemporal changes pertaining to land use land cover (LULC) and the driving forces behind these changes in Doodhganga watershed of Jhelum Basin. An integrated approach utilizing remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) was used to extract information pertaining to LULC change. Multi-date LULC maps were generated by analyzing remotely sensed images of three dates which include LandSat TM 1992, LandSat ETM+ 2001 and IRS LISS-III 2005. The LULC information was extracted by adopting on-screen image interpretation technique in a GIS environment at 1:25,000 scale. Based on the analysis, changes were observed in the spatial extent of different LULC types over a period of 13 years. Significant changes were observed in the spatial extent of forest, horticulture, built-up and agriculture. Forest cover in the watershed has decreased by 1.47 %, Agricultural by 0.93 % while as built-up area has increased by 0.92 %. The net decrease in forest cover and agriculture land indicate the anthropogenic interference into surrounding natural ecosystems. From the study it was found that the major driving forces for these changes were population growth and changes in the stream discharge. The changes in the stream discharge were found responsible for the conversion of agricultural land into horticulture, as horticulture has increased by 1.14 % in spatial extent. It has been found that increasing human population together with decreasing stream discharge account for LULC changes in the watershed. Therefore, the existing policy framework needs to focus upon mitigating the impacts of forces responsible for LULC change so as to ensure sustainable development of land resources.  相似文献   

3.
Historical and exact information about the land use/land cover change is very important for regional sustainable development. The aim of this paper is to determine the rapid changes in land use/land cover (LULC) pattern due to agriculture expansion, environmental calamities such as flood and government policies over Upper Narmada basin, India. Multi-temporal Landsat satellite images for years 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2015 were used to analyze and monitor the changes in LULC with an overall accuracy of more than 85%. Results revealed a potential decrease in natural vegetation (? 9.52%) due to the expansion of settlement (+ 0.52%) and cropland (+ 9.43%) from 1990 to 2015. In the present study, Cellular Automata and Markov (CA–Markov), an integrated tool was used to project the short-term LULC map of year 2030. The projected LULC (2030) indicated the expansion of built-up area along with the cropland and degradation in the vegetation area. The outcomes from the study can help as a guiding tool for protection of natural vegetation and the management of the built-up area. Additionally, it will help in devising the strategies to utilize every bit of land in the study area for decision makers.  相似文献   

4.
Haraz River is one of the most important rivers in Iran, which has been faced with successive inappropriate land use changes and environmental degradation practices in recent decades. In this way, the impact of land use changes on stream flow generation, evaporation and hydrological processes of the Haraz basin has been studied. Land use maps for the years of 1988, 2000 and 2013 were prepared and assessed for any changes in land use using land change modeler and logistic regression methods. GEOMOD method was also used for accuracy tests of models. The calibration periods of 1988–2000, 1988–2013 and also Markov chain with hard prediction model were applied in order to predict the future land use for 2025. Besides, SWAT model was used to evaluate the watershed-scale impacts of land use change. Evaluating the calibration periods using GEOMOD method and some parameters showed a more accurate prediction for the period of 1988–2013 than the 1988–2000 period. Likewise, the results indicated that the rate of changes from 2013 to 2025 will be decreased in terms of forest and range lands (6751.05 and 168,09.01 ha, respectively) and will be increased in terms of residential areas, irrigated farming, gardens and bare lands up to 1567.2, 1405.68, 3039.38 and 174,05.55 ha, respectively. The assessment of model efficiency showed that the SWAT model has acceptable performance to simulate the flow discharge. Overall, the model outcomes indicated that land use changes lead to increase the average runoff in the study area. As a matter of fact, this issue has significant effects on water resources, economic and social situations, and hence, efficient strategies are needed for an integrated management in the Haraz basin.  相似文献   

5.
Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.  相似文献   

6.
Wular Lake is the largest freshwater lake of India located in north western Himalayas of Kashmir Valley which has got deteriorated over the period of time due to the enough human interference within its catchment areas. The purpose of the present research study is to identify the changes in land use and land cover in the Wular catchment as well as its transformation into other classes and its impact on the overall water quality of the lake. For the present study Landsat (TM) image of 1992 and Landsat-8 (OLI) of 2015 have been used for assessing the changes in land use/land cover. Supervised classification technique was used to generate LULC maps of different categories pertaining to study area for years 1992 and 2015. Regarding water quality, water samples were collected from five different spots of the lake in four different seasons of the year—from December 2014 to September 2015. The sites from which samples were collected are Vintage Park, Ashtungo, Watlab, Makhdomyari and Ningal as site 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. Some parameters of water like temperature, transparency, depth, conductivity and pH were examined on the spot during the sample collection by their respective measuring instruments. The rest of the parameters were examined in hydrological laboratory within 24 h after collection following the standard methods of APHA (Standard methods for the examination of water and wastewater, 21st edn. American Public Health Association, Washington, DC, 2005). The relationship between the LULC classes and water quality parameters has been calculated with the help of SHDI which has shown both positive and as well as negative results.  相似文献   

7.
Land use and land cover (LULC) changes caused by human activities have strong influences on regional environment. Land surface temperate plays an important role in studying the impact of LULC changes on regional environment. In this paper, remotely sensed thermal infrared data were used to assess land surface temperature (LST) in the Weigan and Kuqa river oasis, Xingjiang, one of the important agricultural areas in the northwestern China. The present study deals with the extraction of LST and the relationship between LULC changes using Landsat 5 TM acquired on September 25, 1989, and September 6, 2011. The results indicate that the surface temperature of water body, bare land, and desert changed significantly between 1989 and 2011. In general, the LST was lower in 1989 than in 2011. There were no lower, higher, and highest temperature zones in 1989. However, the minimum temperature was 10.7 °C in 1989 and 15.8 °C in 2011. The maximum temperature was 29.3 °C in 1989 and 41.8 °C in 2011. Regarding the LULC types, the desert features in the Gobi Desert warmed more quickly than the oasis. So, the temperature of the oasis was lower than the surrounded areas, resulting in a so-called “cold island” phenomenon. Oasis cold island effect index (OCIEI) shows that stability of oasis had rising trend from 1989 to 2011. In addition, the impact of LULC changes on LST was analyzed and the driving forces were also analyzed from 1977 to 2011. This study is significant for further understanding of the energy exchange status of soil-plant-atmospheric system and the regional heat distribution in arid and semi-arid areas of the northwest China.  相似文献   

8.
Wular Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes of Jhelum River Basin, is showing signs of deterioration due to the anthropogenic impact and changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) and hydrometeorological climate of the region. The present study investigated the impacts of temporal changes in LULC and meteorological and hydrological parameters to evaluate the current status of Wular Lake environs using multisensor, multitemporal satellite and observatory data. Satellite images acquired for the years 1992, 2001, 2005, and 2008 were used for determining changes in the LULC in a buffer area of 5 km2 around the Wular Lake. LULC mapping and change analysis using the visual interpretation technique indicated significant changes around the Wular Lake during the last two decades. Reduction in lake area from 24 km2 in 1992 to 9 km2 in 2008 (?62.5 %) affected marshy lands, the habitat of migratory birds, which also exhibited drastic reduction from 85 km2 in 1992 to 5 km2 in 2008 (?94.117 %). Marked development of settlements (642.85 %) in the peripheral area of the Wular Lake adversely affected its varied aquatic flora and fauna. Change in climatic conditions, to a certain extent, is also responsible for the decrease in water level and water spread of the lake as witnessed by decreased discharge in major tributaries (Erin and Madhumati) draining into the Wular Lake.  相似文献   

9.
Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.  相似文献   

10.
The Huajiang and Hongfenghu demonstration areas represent typical karst landforms and rocky desertification landscapes in Guizhou, China. These were selected for a comparison of rocky desertification and land use cover. Based mainly on 5 m resolution Spot 5, remote sensing images, topographic maps (1:10,000) and land use maps, the intensity and extent of rocky desertification, and slope characteristics of the two areas were interpreted. Spatial overlay analysis was used to compare the land use/land cover (LULC) and rocky desertification within each. The results were compared using the concepts of rocky desertification occurrence (RDO) among LULC classes and the structure value of desertification land (SVDL). The results demonstrated that (1) the landforms and extent of rocky desertification in the two areas are significantly different and the proportion of very steep slopes is one of the reasons leading to large areas of rocky desertification; (2) the RDO and SVDL show significant differences between the two areas; also rocky desertification intensity in various LULC classes cannot be measured in terms of RDO. High RDO may occur in low-intensity desertification land, and vice versa; (3) the structural characteristics of rocky desertification among various LULC are consistent among the woodland, “bare land” and “other grassland” land use classes in the two areas, but sequence slight > moderate > intense is not consistent between the areas. For the rocky desertification control, the present authors consider that the spatial distribution differences of rocky desertification and LULC among areas with different landform types area combined with the intensity of rocky desertification should be used in designing appropriate measures for control of desertification and rehabilitation of land.  相似文献   

11.
The sustainability of water resources mainly depends on planning and management of land use; a small change in it may affect water yield largely, as both are linked through relevant hydrological processes, explicitly. However, human activities, especially a significant increase in population, in-migration and accelerated socio-economic activities, are constantly modifying the land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. The impact of such changes in LULC on the hydrological regime of a basin is of widespread concern and a great challenge to the water resource engineers. While studying these impacts, the issue that prevails is the selection of a hydrological model that may be able to accommodate spatial and temporal dynamics of the basin with higher accuracy. Therefore, in the present study, the capabilities of variable infiltration capacity hydrological model to hydrologically simulate the basin under varying LULC scenarios have been investigated. For the present analysis, the Pennar River Basin, Andhra Pradesh, which falls under a water scarce region in India, has been chosen. The water balance components such as runoff potential, evapotranspiration (ET) and baseflow of Pennar Basin have been simulated under different LULC scenarios to study the impact of change on hydrological regime of a basin. Majorly, increase in built-up (13.94% approx.) and decrease in deciduous forest cover (2.44%) are the significant changes observed in the basin during the last three decades. It was found that the impact of LULC change on hydrology is balancing out at basin scale (considering the entire basin, while routing the runoff at the basin outlet). Therefore, an analysis on spatial variation in each of the water balance components considered in the study was done at grid scale. It was observed that the impact of LULC is considerable spatially at grid level, and the maximum increase of 265 mm (1985–2005) and the decrease of 48 mm (1985–1995) in runoff generation at grid were estimated. On the contrary, ET component showed the maximum increase of 400 and decrease of 570 mm under different LULC change scenario. Similarly, in the base flow parameter, an increase of 70 mm and the decrease of 100 mm were observed. It was noticed that the upper basin is showing an increasing trend in almost all hydrological components as compared to the lower basin. Based on this basin scale study, it was concluded that change in the land cover alters the hydrology; however, it needs to be studied at finer spatial scale rather than the entire basin as a whole. The information like the spatial variation in hydrological components may be very useful for local authority and decision-makers to plan mitigation strategies accordingly.  相似文献   

12.
The integration of remote sensing, geographic information system, landscape ecology and statistical analysis methods was applied to study the urban thermal environment in Guangzhou. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Build-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Barren Index (NDBaI) and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) were used to analyze the relationships between land surface temperature (LST) and land use/land cover (LULC) qualitatively. The result revealed that, most urban built-up lands were located in the middle part, and high LST areas mostly and were in the middle and southern parts. Therefore, the urbanization and thermal environment in the middle and southern parts need to be determined. Land surface temperature increased with the density of urban built-up and barren land, but decreased with vegetation cover. The relationship between MNDWI and LST was found to be negative, which implied that pure water would decrease the surface temperature and the polluted water would increase the surface temperature. A multiple regression between LST and each indices as well as the elevation was created to elevate the urban thermal environment, which showed that NDVI, NDBI, NDBaI, MNDWI were effective indicators for quantifying LULC impacts on LST.  相似文献   

13.
应用MODIS数据推估区域地表蒸散   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文
通过"热增强"方法,充分利用MODIS数据的时间分辨率和空间分辨率的优势,基于对SEBAL模型改进的基础上,反演并验证了山东省的地表蒸散。结果表明,蒸散反演结果与实测值具有很好的一致性,日平均相对误差约为-11.34%。同时分析了研究区2005年和2006年不同土地利用/覆盖类型下蒸散的逐月变化规律,发现水域的月平均蒸散量最大,其次为水田,林地、旱田和草地基本相当,人工用地的月平均蒸散量最小。  相似文献   

14.
In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km2, respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans.  相似文献   

15.
Information on use/land cover change is important for planners and decision makers to implement sustainable use and management of resources. This study was intended to assess the land use land cover (LULC) change in the Koga watershed. The MSS of 1973, TM images of 1986, 1995 and 2011 were used together with survey and demographic data to detect the drivers of land cover changes. The result revealed that a remarkable LULC change occurred in the study area for the past thirty eight years. The area of cultivated and settlement has increased by 7054.6 ha, while, grass and bush lands decreased by 4846.5 and 3376 ha respectively. Wetland also declined from 580.2 ha to 68.3 ha. The growing demand for cultivable land and fuel wood were the major causes to the deterioration of grass and bush lands. Hence, the appropriate land use policy should be employed to sustain available resource in the watershed.  相似文献   

16.
贵州省近40年耕地功能转型评价及演变差异分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
史小祺  李阳兵 《中国岩溶》2018,37(5):722-732
梳理1978年之后贵州省农业政策及农业农户概况,构建耕地功能评价指标体系,并运用熵权法计算指标权重与其功能值,对耕地多功能进行分类和评价,对比全省及各个州市耕地在不同社会经济条件下所承载的功能,分析差异及原因,研究表明:（1）贵州省耕地功能呈下降趋势,功能转型从2006年前后开始,各州市存在一定差异,经济发展较快的地区在2004年前后已提前转型,经济发展较慢的地区在2012年前后转型;（2）耕地功能存在空间分布差异,主要与地区耕地压力和经济发达程度组合状况有关,低耕低压力高GDP（如遵义、六盘水）耕地功能值最高,高耕低压力高GDP（如贵阳市）则次之,高压力低GDP（如安顺等地区）再次之,低压力低GDP（如黔南等地）最低;（3）耕地数量减少,耕地化学品负荷加剧,建议注重耕地生态保护,减少以过度化学品的投入换取粮食产出等不合理做法;从当地实际出发选择适合的农业发展方式,协调粮经作物、种养业发展的关系,推动农业结构优化升级。   相似文献   

17.
An effective and efficient planning of an urban growth and land use changes and its impact on the environment requires information about growth trends and patterns amongst other important information. Over the years, many urban growth models have been developed and used in the developed countries for forecasting growth patterns. In the developing countries however, there exist a very few studies showing the application of these models and their performances. In this study two models such as cellular automata (CA) and the SLEUTH models are applied in a geographical information system (GIS) to simulate and predict the urban growth and land use change for the City of Sana’a (Yemen) for the period 2004–2020. GIS based maps were generated for the urban growth pattern of the city which was further analyzed using geo-statistical techniques. During the models calibration process, a total of 35 years of time series dataset such as historical topographical maps, aerial photographs and satellite imageries was used to identify the parameters that influenced the urban growth. The validation result showed an overall accuracy of 99.6 %; with the producer’s accuracy of 83.3 % and the user’s accuracy 83.6 %. The SLEUTH model used the best fit growth rule parameters during the calibration to forecasting future urban growth pattern and generated various probability maps in which the individual grid cells are urbanized assuming unique “urban growth signatures”. The models generated future urban growth pattern and land use changes from the period 2004–2020. Both models proved effective in forecasting growth pattern that will be useful in planning and decision making. In comparison, the CA model growth pattern showed high density development, in which growth edges were filled and clusters were merged together to form a compact built-up area wherein less agricultural lands were included. On the contrary, the SLEUTH model growth pattern showed more urban sprawl and low-density development that included substantial areas of agricultural lands.  相似文献   

18.
The devastating effect of soil erosion is one of the major sources of land degradation that affects human lives in many ways which occur mainly due to deforestation, poor agricultural practices, overgrazing,wildfire and urbanization. Soil erosion often leads to soil truncation, loss of fertility, slope instability, etc.which causes irreversible effects on the poorly renewable soil resource. In view of this, a study was conducted in Kelantan River basin to predict soil loss as influenced by long-term land use/land-cover(LULC) changes in the area. The study was conducted with the aim of predicting and assessing soil erosion as it is influenced by long-term LULC changes. The 13,100 km~2 watershed was delineated into four sub-catchments Galas, Pergau, Lebir and Nenggiri for precise result estimation and ease of execution. GIS-based Universal Soil Loss Equation(USLE) model was used to predict soil loss in this study. The model inputs used for the temporal and spatial calculation of soil erosion include rainfall erosivity factor,topographic factor, land cover and management factor as well as erodibility factor. The results showed that 67.54% of soil loss is located under low erosion potential(reversible soil loss) or 0-1 t ha~(-1) yr~(-1) soil loss in Galas, 59.17% in Pergau, 53.32% in Lebir and 56.76% in Nenggiri all under the 2013 LULC condition.Results from the correlation of soil erosion rates with LULC changes indicated that cleared land in all the four catchments and under all LULC conditions(1984-2013) appears to be the dominant with the highest erosion losses. Similarly, grassland and forest were also observed to regulate erosion rates in the area. This is because the vegetation cover provided by these LULC types protects the soil from direct impact of rain drops which invariably reduce soil loss to the barest minimum. Overall, it was concluded that the results have shown the significance of LULC in the control of erosion. Maps generated from the study may be useful to planners and land use managers to take appropriate decisions for soil conservation.  相似文献   

19.
Forest conversion due to illegal logging and agricultural expansion is a major problem that is hampering biodiversity conservation efforts in the Zagros region. Yet, areas vulnerable to forest conversion are unknown. This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of deforestation in western Iran. Landsat images dated 1988, 2001, and 2007 are classified in order to generate digital deforestation maps which locate deforestation and forest persistence areas. Meanwhile, in order to examine deforestation factors’ investigation, deforestation maps with physiographic and human spatial variables are entered into the model. Areas vulnerable to forest changes in the Zagros forest region are predicted by a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with a Markov chain model. The results show that about 19,294 ha forest areas are deforested in the last 19 years. The predictive performance of the model appears successful, which is validated using the actual land cover map of the same year from Landsat data. The validated map is found to be 94 % accurate. The validation is also tested using the relative operating characteristic approach which yielded a value of 0.96. The model is then further extended to predict forest cover losses for 2020. The MLPNN approach was found to have a great potential to predict land use/land cover changes because it permits developing complex, nonlinear models.  相似文献   

20.
The effects of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics have directly affected the surface runoff and flooding events. Hence, current study proposes a full-packaged model to monitor the changes in surface runoff in addition to forecast of the future surface runoff based on LULC and precipitation variations. On one hand, six different LULC classes were extracted from Spot-5 satellite image. Conjointly, land transformation model (LTM) was used to detect the LULC pixel changes from 2000 to 2010 as well as predict the 2020 ones. On the other hand, the time series-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast the amount of rainfall in 2020. The ARIMA parameters were calibrated and fitted by latest Taguchi method. To simulate the maximum probable surface runoff, distributed soil conservation service-curve number (SCS-CN) model was applied. The comparison results showed that firstly, deforestation and urbanization have been occurred upon the given time, and they are anticipated to increase as well. Secondly, the amount of rainfall has non-stationary declined since 2000 till 2015 and this trend is estimated to continue by 2020. Thirdly, due to damaging changes in LULC, the surface runoff has been also increased till 2010 and it is forecasted to gradually exceed by 2020. Generally, model calibrations and accuracy assessments have been indicated, using distributed-GIS-based SCS-CN model in combination with the LTM and ARIMA models are an efficient and reliable approach for detecting, monitoring, and forecasting surface runoff.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号