首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ c and P d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.  相似文献   

2.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

3.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

4.
The relation between the gravity variation features and M S=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily, by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000. The results show that: 1) M S=8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass western occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity’s high negative variation; 2) The main tectonic deformation and energy accumulation before M S=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter; 3) The range of gravity’s high negative variation at east of the M S=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation; 4) Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain’s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation.  相似文献   

5.
This study uses macroseismic data and wave equations to solve the problem of ultra long propagation of felt ground motion (over 9000 km from the epicenter) due to the Sea-of-Okhotsk earthquake. We show that the principal mechanism of this phenomenon could be excitation of a previously unknown standing radial wave as a mode of the Earth’s free oscillations, 0S0, due to the superposition of an incident and a reflected spherical P wave in the epicentral area of the Sea-of-Okhotsk earthquake. The standing wave generates slowly attenuating P waves that travel over the earth’s surface that act as carrying waves; when superposed on these, direct body waves acquire the ability to travel over great distances. We show previously unknown parameters of the radial mode 0S0 for the initial phase of earth deformation due to the large deep-focus earthquake. We used data on the Sea-of-Okhotsk and Bolivian earthquakes to show that large deep-focus earthquakes can excite free oscillations of the Earth that are not only recorded by instrumental means, but are also felt by people, with the amplification of the macroseismic effect being directly related to the phenomenon of resonance for multistory buildings.  相似文献   

6.
Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q 0 and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q c(f)?=?Q 0 f α . The result was Q 0?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t s???t 0) (time from origin time t 0 to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q c was not calculated. The derived Q c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q S was Q 0?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q c result.  相似文献   

7.
Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multipoint strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using C v value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of C v value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of C v value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. C v value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when C v value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that C v value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

8.
The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (Ms = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (Ms = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (Ms = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (Ms = 6.9) earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
In this paper changes in focal mechanisms, parameters of wave spectra, and stress drops for the M S=5.0 foreshock and M S=6.0 mainshock in February 2001 in Yajiang County, Sichuan, and seismicity in epicentral region are studied. Comparison of focal mechanisms for the Yajiang earthquakes with distribution patterns of aftershocks, the nodal plane I, striking in the direction of NEN, of the Yajiang M=5.0 event is chosen as the faulting plane; the nodal plane II, striking in the direction of WNW, of the M=6.0 event as the faulting plane. The strikes of the two faulting planes are nearly perpendicular to each other. The level of stress drops in the epicentral region before the occurrence of the M=6.0 earthquake increases, which is consistent with increase of seismicity in the epicentral region. The rate decay of the Yajiang earthquake sequence, changes in wave spectra for foreshocks and aftershocks, and focal mechanisms are complex.  相似文献   

10.
The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E y component, dynamic pressure P d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E y value at E y < 12 mV m?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E y > 12 mV m?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.  相似文献   

11.
The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M L-LDG >4, M w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M L-LDG ≤4, M w is converted from M L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M w. All M w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M w of recent events. As for some small events, no M L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M D) are first converted into M L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.  相似文献   

12.
Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F 2 region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F 2 region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.  相似文献   

13.
A new 3D velocity model of the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan plateau was obtained by joint inversion of body- and surface-wave data. For the body-wave data, we used 7190 events recorded by 102 stations in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The surface-wave data consist of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves obtained from ambient noise cross-correlation analysis recorded by a dense array in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The joint inversion clearly improves the v S model because it is constrained by both data types. The results show that at around 10 km depth there are two low-velocity anomalies embedded within three high-velocity bodies along the Longmenshan fault system. These high-velocity bodies correspond well with the Precambrian massifs, and the two located to the northeast of 2013 M S 7.0 Lushan earthquake are associated with high fault slip areas during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock gap between 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with low-velocity anomalies, which also acts as a barrier zone for ruptures of two earthquakes. Generally large earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the region occurring from 2008 to 2015 are located around the high-velocity zones, indicating that they may act as asperities for these large earthquakes. Joint inversion results also clearly show that there exist low-velocity or weak zones in the mid-lower crust, which are not evenly distributed beneath the SE margin of Tibetan plateau.  相似文献   

14.
The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b m , N, M 1, M 2) that an observed b m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M 1????≤?ΔM/2,?M 2?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.  相似文献   

15.
Six species of more than 20-year-old desert woody plants in the oasis-desert ecotone were selected for study. The results showed that: (1) in different growing seasons δ13C values of assimilating organ varied between -14%. and -16%. for Haloxylon ammodendron (HA),-14%. - -15%. for Calligonum mongolicum (CM) and -25%. - -28%. for Caragana korshinskii (CK), Nitraria sphaerocarpa (NS) and Hedysarum scoparium (HS). (2) The net photosynthetic rate (Pn) of HA and CM was significantly higher than those of the other species. With the decrease in Pn for the six species, their intercellular CO2 concentration increased, but stomatal limitation value decreased under the intensive light. At the same time, the photochemical efficiency of PS II dropped to different degrees. (3) The CO2 enrichment experiment demonstrated that, Pn of HA and CM increased to different extent under 450 μmol/mol, but their Pn reduced or approximated to the current condition under 650 μmol/mol. Under 450 μmol/mol the efficiency for solar energy utilization of CK and HS significantly reduced and under 650 μmol/mol their respiration rate exceeded photosynthesis rate. It can be concluded that HA and CM have some function of pathway for C4 but the other three species have the function for C3. The decline in their Pn is mainly caused by non-stomatal factors. HA, CM, CK and HS exhibited photoinhibition, which disappeared in a short time. This is a kind of positive readjustment to adapting to the desert environment. HA and CM can adapt to the high CO2 environment, but CK and HS cannot. With the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate warming, the latter two species in the oasis-desert ecotone may be gradually degraded or even disappear.  相似文献   

16.
We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO2 (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO2 significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO2 conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO2 shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO2 increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO2 reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO2 reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO2 during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO2 in ecology or aquaculture.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, observation data in 25 GPS reference stations of China have been analyzed by calculating GPS position coordinate time-series with GIPSY. Result shows there is an obvious trend variation in such time-series. The trend variations of time series along the longitude and latitude coordinate reflect the motion of each position in the global-plate, in which the trend variation in the vertical direction reveals some large-scale construction information or reflects the local movement around the positions. The analysis also shows that such time-series have a variation cycle of nearly 1.02 a, but the reason still remains to be further studied. At the end of this paper, response of the time-series of M S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake was analyzed, and the seismogenic process of M S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake, according to the time proceeding and the feature of anomaly, was divided into 3 phases—changes in blocks with forces, strain accumulation, quick accumulation and slow release of energy. At the initial stage of seismogenic process of M S=8.1 earthquake and at the imminent earthquake, coseismic process as well as during the post earthquake recovery, anomaly in vertical direction is always in a majority. The anomalous movement in vertical direction at the initial stage resulted in a blocking between faults, while at the middle stage of seismogenic process, the differential movement between blocks are in a majority, which is the major reason causing energy accumulating at the blocking stage of faults.  相似文献   

18.
The paper considers the Argun earthquake of July 22, 2011 (M w = 4.5), which occurred in the Argun River valley in a low-seismicity territory in China. The focal parameters of the earthquake (depth of the hypocenter, moment magnitude, scalar seismic moment, and focal mechanism) were determined by calculating the seismic moment tensor from the amplitude spectra of surface waves and the data on the signs of the first arrivals of body waves at regional stations. The solution of the focal mechanism makes it possible to assume a relationship between the earthquake focus and a fault with a northeastern strike bordering the southeastern side of the Argun Basin (in Chinese territory). The Argun earthquake was felt in Russia with an intensity of II–III to V at the epicentral distances up to 255 km. The intensity of shaking did not exceed values suggested by new GSZ-2012 and GSZ-2014 seismic zoning maps of Russian territory. Nevertheless, the question on the possible occurrence of stronger earthquakes in the studied region remains open.  相似文献   

19.
A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q m after the M=5.1 event is 204.  相似文献   

20.
The seasonal cycle of the main lunar tidal constituent M 2 is studied globally by an analysis of a high-resolution ocean circulation and tide model (STORMTIDE) simulation, of 19 years of satellite altimeter data, and of multiyear tide-gauge records. The barotropic seasonal tidal variability is dominant in coastal and polar regions with relative changes of the tidal amplitude of 5–10 %. A comparison with the observations shows that the ocean circulation and tide model captures the seasonal pattern of the M 2 tide reasonably well. There are two main processes leading to the seasonal variability in the barotropic tide: First, seasonal changes in stratification on the continental shelf affect the vertical profile of eddy viscosity and, in turn, the vertical current profile. Second, the frictional effect between sea-ice and the surface ocean layer leads to seasonally varying tidal transport. We estimate from the model simulation that the M 2 tidal energy dissipation at the sea surface varies seasonally in the Arctic (ocean regions north of 60°N) between 2 and 34 GW, whereas in the Southern Ocean, it varies between 0.5 and 2 GW. The M 2 internal tide is mainly affected by stratification, and the induced modified phase speed of the internal waves leads to amplitude differences in the surface tide signal of 0.005–0.0150 m. The seasonal signals of the M 2 surface tide are large compared to the accuracy demands of satellite altimetry and gravity observations and emphasize the importance to consider seasonal tidal variability in the correction processes of satellite data.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号