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1.
This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Rainfall–runoff modelling at ungauged catchments often involves the transfer of calibrated model parameters from ‘donor’ gauged catchments. However, in any rainfall–runoff model, some parameters tend to be more sensitive to the objective function, whereas others are insensitive over their entire feasible range. In this paper, we analyse the effect of selectively transferring sensitive versus insensitive parameters on streamflow predictability at ungauged catchments. We develop a simple daily time‐step rainfall–runoff model [exponential bucket hydrologic model (EXP‐HYDRO)] and calibrate it at 756 catchments within the continental USA. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of (NS) is used as the objective function. The model simulates satisfactorily at 323 catchments (NS > 0.6), most of which are located in the eastern part of the USA, along the Rocky Mountain Range, and near the western Pacific coast. Of the six calibration parameters, only three parameters are found to be sensitive to NS. Two of these parameters control the hydrograph recession behaviour of a catchment, and the third parameter controls the snowmelt rate. We find that when only sensitive parameters are transferred, model performance at ungauged catchments is almost at par with that of transferring all six parameters. Conversely, the transfer of only insensitive parameters results in a significant deterioration in model performance. Results suggest that streamflow predictability at ungauged catchments using rainfall–runoff models is largely dependent on the transfer of a small subset of parameters. We recommend that, in any modelling framework, such parameters should be identified and further characterized to better understand the information controlling streamflow predictability at ungauged catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
AbstractIn this study, transferability options of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model parameter (MP) spaces were investigated to estimate ungauged catchment runoff. Three approaches were applied in the study: MP space transfer from single, neighbouring and all potential donor catchments. The model performance was evaluated by a jackknife procedure, where one catchment at a time was treated as if ungauged, and behavioural MP sets from candidate donor catchments were used to estimate the “ungauged” runoff. The results showed that ungauged catchment runoff estimation could not be guaranteed by transferring MP sets from a single physiographically nearest donor catchment. Integrating MP sets typically from one to six donor catchments supplemented the lack of effective MP sets and improved the model performance at the ungauged catchments. In addition, the analysis results revealed that the model performance converged to an average performance when the MP sets of all potential donor catchments were integrated. 相似文献
4.
Catchments in many parts of the world are either ungauged or poorly gauged, and the dominant processes governing their streamflow response are still poorly understood. The analysis of runoff coefficients provides essential insight into catchment response, particularly if both range of catchments and a range of events are compared. This paper investigates how well the hydrological runoff of 11 small, poorly gauged catchments with ephemeral streams (0·1‐0·6 km2) can be compared using estimated runoff with the associated uncertainty. Data of rainfall and water depth at a catchment's outlet were recorded using automatic logging equipment during 2008‐2009. The hydrological regime is intermittent and the annual precipitation ranged between 569 and 727 mm. Discharge was estimated using Manning's equation and channel cross‐section measurements. Innovative work has been performed under controlled experimental conditions to estimate Manning's coefficient values for the different cover types observed in studied streams: non‐aquatic vegetations (giant reed, bramble and thistle), grass and coarse granular deposits. The results show that estimates derived using roughness coefficients differ from those previously established for larger streams with aquatic vegetation. Catchment runoff was compared at both the event and the annual scale. The results indicate significant variability between the catchment's responses. This variability allows for classification in spite of all the uncertainty associated with runoff estimation. This study highlights the potential of using a network of poorly gauged catch ments. From almost no catchment understanding the proposed methodology allows to compare poorly gauged catchments and highlights similarity/dissimilarity between catchment responses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
A simple modelling framework for assessing the response of ungauged catchments to land use change in South‐Western Australia is presented. The framework uses knowledge of transpiration losses from native vegetation and pasture and then partitions the ‘excess’ water (resulting from reduced transpiration after land use change) between runoff and deep storage. The simple partitioning is achieved by using soft information (satellite imagery, previous mapping and field assessment) to delimit the spread of the permanently saturated area close to the stream. Runoff is then assumed to increase in proportion to the saturated area, with the residual difference going to deep storage. The model parameters to describe the annual water yield are obtained a priori and no calibration to streamflow is required. We tested the model using gauged records over 25 years from paired catchment experiments in South‐Western Australia. Very good estimates of runoff were obtained from high rainfall (>1100 mm yr−1) catchments (R2 > 0·9) and for low rainfall (<900 mm yr−1) catchments after clearing (R2 = 0·96) but results were poorer (R2 = 0·55) for an uncleared low rainfall catchment, although overall balances were reasonable. In the drier uncleared catchments, the within‐year distributions of rainfall may exert a substantial influence on runoff response that is not completely captured by the presented model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
Simple runoff models with a low number of model parameters are generally able to simulate catchment runoff reasonably well, but they rely on model calibration, which makes their use in ungauged basins challenging. In a previous study it has been shown that a limited number of streamflow measurements can be quite informative for constraining runoff models. In practice, however, instead of performing such repeated flow measurements, it might be easier to install a stream level logger. Here, a dataset of 600+ gauged basins in the USA was used to study how well models perform when only stream level data, rather than streamflow data, are available. A runoff model (the HBV model) was calibrated assuming that only stream level observations were available, and the simulations were evaluated on the full observed streamflow record. The results indicate that stream level data alone can already provide surprisingly good model simulation results in humid catchments, whereas in arid catchments some form of quantitative information (e.g. a streamflow observation or a regional average value) is needed to obtain good results. These results are encouraging for hydrological observations in data scarce regions as level observations are much easier to obtain than streamflow measurements. Based on runoff modelling, it might even be possible to derive streamflow time series from the level data obtained from loggers, satellites or community‐based approaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):401-408
Abstract Knowledge of peak discharge is essential for safe and economical planning and design of hydraulic structures. In India, as in most developing countries, the majority of river basins are either sparsely gauged or not gauged at all. The gauged records are also of short length (generally 15–30 years), therefore development of robust models is necessary for estimation of streamflows. Various studies reveal that flood estimation through channel geometry is an alternative method for ungauged catchments. It is appropriate for use where flow characteristics are poorly related to catchment area and other catchment characteristics. In the present study, stream geometry parameters for 42 river sites in central-south India were used; calibration equations were developed with data for 35 stations and tested on data for the remaining seven stations. The relationships developed between mean discharge and channel geometry parameters provide an alternative technique for estimation of mean annual channel discharge. 相似文献
8.
Predicting dry‐season flows with a monthly rainfall–runoff model: Performance for gauged and ungauged catchments 
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下载免费PDF全文 Hydrologic models are useful to understand the effects of climate and land‐use changes on dry‐season flows. In practice, there is often a trade‐off between simplicity and accuracy, especially when resources for catchment management are scarce. Here, we evaluated the performance of a monthly rainfall–runoff model (dynamic water balance model, DWBM) for dry‐season flow prediction under climate and land‐use change. Using different methods with decreasing amounts of catchment information to set the four model parameters, we predicted dry‐season flow for 89 Australian catchments and verified model performance with an independent dataset of 641 catchments in the United States. For the Australian catchments, model performance without catchment information (other than climate forcing) was fair; it increased significantly as the information to infer the four model parameters increased. Regressions to infer model parameters from catchment characteristics did not hold for catchments in the United States, meaning that a new calibration effort was needed to increase model performance there. Recognizing the interest in relative change for practical applications, we also examined how DWBM could be used to simulate a change in dry‐season flow following land‐use change. We compared results with and without calibration data and showed that predictions of changes in dry‐season flow were robust with respect to uncertainty in model parameters. Our analyses confirm that climate is a strong driver of dry‐season flow and that parsimonious models such as DWBM have useful management applications: predicting seasonal flow under various climate forcings when calibration data are available and providing estimates of the relative effect of land use on seasonal flow for ungauged catchments. 相似文献
9.
抚仙湖集水域地表径流入湖水量模拟 总被引：8，自引：2，他引：6
采用适用于无资料流域、参数较少的SCS模型计算抚仙湖集水域地表径流量.模型考虑了集水域下垫面条件的空间差异,利用Maplnfo/Arc view软件按照土地利用方式与土壤类型的不同,把集水域划分为若干个水文响应单元,分别计算产流量,较准确地模拟了入湖径流量.通过对梁王河流域和大鲫鱼沟流域实测降雨径流资料的分析与反演,提出了适合该区域的产流计算CN值.在对CN值作坡度修正后再应用到其它无观测数据区域.通过模型计算得到的抚仙湖集水域2005年3月1日-2006年2月28日地表径流量为1.74×108 m3,陆面径流系数为0.395.模型为指导抚仙湖集水域径流观测及入湖污染物负荷的计算提供依据. 相似文献
10.
The primary objective of the study is to propose a strategy for rainfall–runoff model calibration at ungauged sites. This strategy comprises two main components: (1) development of the regional analysis method to synthesize the flow duration curves at ungauged sites; and (2) utilization of the synthetic flow duration curves for model calibration. Since the regional analysis method can synthesize the flow duration curves at ungauged sites, the continuous rainfall–runoff model coupled with a global optimization method were applied in southern Taiwan using the synthetic flow duration curve as an objective for model calibration. The results reveal that the regional flow duration curve and the strategy for model calibration at ungauged sites have good performances in the study area. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
This paper presents preliminary results from the application of a transfer‐function rainfall–runoff model to ephemeral streams in Mediterranean Spain. Flow simulations have been conducted for two small catchments (Carraixet and Poyo basins), located in close proximity to one another yet with significantly different geological characteristics. Analysis of flow simulations for a number of high‐flow events has revealed the dominant influence of the rainfall on the catchment response, particularly for high‐rainfall events. Particular success has been attained modelling the highest magnitude events in both catchments and for all events in the faster responding (Poyo) catchment. In order to investigate the viability of the model for forecasting floods in ungauged catchments, additional investigations have been conducted by calibrating the model for one catchment (donor catchment) and then applying it to another (receptor catchment). The results indicate that this can be successful when either the donor catchment is a fast response catchment or when the model is calibrated using a high‐magnitude event in the donor catchment, providing that the modelled receptor catchment event is of a lower magnitude. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
An efficient calibration with remotely sensed (RS) data is important for accurate predictions at ungauged catchments. This study investigates the advantages of streamflow-sensitive regionalization on calibration with RS evapotranspiration (ET). Regionalization experiments are performed at 28 catchments in Australia. The catchments are classified into three groups based on annual rainfall and runoff coefficients. Streamflow, RS ET, and a multi-objective RS ET-streamflow calibration are performed using the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm in each catchment. Simplified Australian Water Resource Assessment-Landscape model is calibrated for a selection of five parameters. Posterior probability distributions of parameters from three calibrations performed at donor catchments in each group are inspected to find the parameter for regionalization in the individual group. In group 1 of wetter catchments, regionalization of parameter FsoilEmax (soil evaporation scaling factor) helps to simplify the calibration without any deterioration in ET, soil moisture (SM) and streamflow predictions. Regionalization of parameter Beta (coefficient describing rate of hydraulic conductivity increase with water content) in group 2 assists to improve the streamflow predictions with no decrement in ET and SM predictions. However, regionalization is not able to provide satisfactory results in group 3. Group 3 includes low-yielding catchments, with average annual rainfall below 1000 mm/year and runoff coefficient less than 0.1, where traditional streamflow calibration also fails to produce accurate results. This study concludes that streamflow-sensitive regionalization is effective for improving the efficacy of RS ET calibration in wetter catchments. 相似文献
13.
Regional frequency analysis is an important tool in estimating design flood for ungauged catchments. Index flood is an important component in regionalized flood formulas. In the past, many formulas have been developed based on various numbers of calibration catchments (e.g. from less than 20 to several hundred). However, there is a lack of systematic research on the model uncertainties caused by the number of calibration catchments (i.e. what is the minimum number of calibration catchment? and how should we choose the calibration catchments?). This study uses the statistical resampling technique to explore the impact of calibration catchment numbers on the index flood estimation. The study is based on 182 catchments in England and an index flood formula has been developed using the input variable selection technique in the data mining field. The formula has been used to explore the model uncertainty due to a range of calibration catchment numbers (from 15 to 130). It is found that (1) as expected, the more catchments are used in the calibration, the more reliable of the models developed are (i.e. with a narrower band of uncertainty); (2) however, poor models are still possible with a large number of calibration catchments (e.g. 130). In contrast, good models with a small number of calibration catchments are also achievable (with as low as 15 calibration catchments). This indicates that the number of calibration catchments is only one of the factors influencing the model performance. The hydrological community should explore why a smaller calibration data set could produce a better model than a large calibration data set. It is clear from this study that the information content in the calibration data set is equally if not more important than the number of calibration data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
Hydrological model sensitivity to climate change can be defined as the response of a particular hydrological model to a known quantum of climate change. This paper estimates the hydrological sensitivity, measured as the percentage change in mean annual runoff, of two lumped parameter rainfall-runoff models, SIMHYD and AWBM and an empirical model, Zhang01, to changes in rainfall and potential evaporation. These changes are estimated for 22 Australian catchments covering a range of climates, from cool temperate to tropical and moist to arid. The results show that the models display different sensitivities to both rainfall and potential evaporation changes. The SIMHYD, AWBM and Zhang01 models show mean sensitivities of 2.4%, 2.5% and 2.1% change in mean annual flow for every 1% change in mean annual rainfall, respectively. All rainfall sensitivities have a lower limit of 1.8% and show upper limits of 4.1%, 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. The results for potential evaporation change are −0.5%, −0.8% and −1.0% for every 1% increase in mean annual potential evaporation, respectively, with changes rainfall being approximately 3–5 times more sensitive than changes in potential evaporation for each 1% change in climate. Despite these differences, the results show similar correlations for several catchment characteristics. The most significant relationship is between percent change in annual rainfall and potential evaporation to the catchment runoff coefficient. The sensitivity of both A and B factors decreases with an increasing runoff coefficient, as does the uncertainty in this relationship. The results suggest that a first-order relationship can be used to give a rough estimate of changes in runoff using estimates of change in rainfall and potential evaporation representing small to modest changes in climate. Further work will develop these methods further, by investigating other regions and changes on the subannual scale. 相似文献
15.
Predicting runoff in ungauged catchments by using Xinanjiang model with MODIS leaf area index 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
Vegetation processes are seldom considered in lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff (RR) models although they have significant impacts on runoff via the control of evapotranspiration. This paper incorporates the remotely-sensed the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer mounted on the polar-orbiting terra satellite-leaf area index (MODIS-LAI) data into Xinanjiang rainfall–runoff model and assesses the model performance on 210 catchments in south-east Australia. The results show that the inclusion of LAI data improves both the model calibration results as well as the daily runoff prediction in ungauged catchments. It is likely that more significant improvements to the model structure to integrate the remotely-sensed vegetation and other data can further reduce the uncertainty in runoff prediction in ungauged catchments. 相似文献
16.
Design flood estimates for a given return period are required in both gauged and ungauged catchments for hydraulic design and risk assessments. Contrary to classical design estimates, synthetic design hydrographs provide not only information on the peak magnitude of events but also on the corresponding hydrograph volumes together with the hydrograph shapes. In this study, we tested different regionalization approaches to transfer parameters of synthetic design hydrographs from gauged to ungauged catchments. These approaches include classical regionalization methods such as linear regression techniques, spatial methods, and methods based on the formation of homogeneous regions. In addition to these classical approaches, we tested nonlinear regression models not commonly used in hydrological regionalization studies, such as random forest, bagging, and boosting. We found that parameters related to the magnitude of the design event can be regionalized well using both linear and nonlinear regression techniques using catchment area, length of the main channel, maximum precipitation intensity, and relief energy as explanatory variables. The hydrograph shape, however, was found to be more difficult to regionalize due to its high variability within a catchment. Such variability might be better represented by looking at flood-type specific synthetic design hydrographs. 相似文献
17.
Assessment of the adequacy of the regional relationships between catchment attributes and catchment response dynamics,calibrated by a multi‐objective approach 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of the regionalization method on the basis of a combination of a parsimonious model structure and a multi‐objective calibration technique. For this study, 12 gauged catchments in the Republic of Korea were used. The parsimonious model structure, requiring minimal input data, was used to avoid adverse effects arising from model complexity, over‐parameterization and data requirements. The IHACRES rainfall‐runoff model was applied to represent the dynamic response characteristics of catchments in Korea. A multi‐objective approach was adopted to reduce the predictive uncertainty arising from the calibration of a rainfall‐runoff model, by increasing the amount of information retrieved from the available data. The regional relationships (or models) between the model parameters and the catchment attributes were established via a multiple regression approach, incorporating correlation analysis and stepwise regression on linear and logarithmic scales. The impacts of the parameters, calibrated by the multi‐objective approach, on the adequacy of regional relationships were assessed by comparison with impacts obtained by the single‐objective approach. The regional relationships were well defined, despite limited available data. The drainage area, the effective soil depth, the mean catchment slope and the catchment gradient appeared to be the main factors for describing the hydrologic response characteristics in the areas studied. The overall model performance of the regional models based on the multi‐objective approach was good, producing reasonable results for high and low flows and for the overall water balance, simultaneously. The regional models based on the single‐objective approach yielded accurate predictions in high flows but showed limited predictive capability for low flows and the overall water balance. This was due to the optimal model parameter estimates when using a single‐objective measure. The parameters calibrated by the single‐objective approach decreased the predictability of the regional models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
18.
Diagnostic evaluation of multiple hypotheses of hydrological behaviour in a limits‐of‐acceptability framework for 24 UK catchments 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Testing competing conceptual model hypotheses in hydrology is complicated by uncertainties from a wide range of sources, which result in multiple simulations that explain catchment behaviour. In this study, the limits of acceptability uncertainty analysis approach used to discriminate between 78 competing hypotheses in the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors for 24 catchments in the UK. During model evaluation, we test the model's ability to represent observed catchment dynamics and processes by defining key hydrologic signatures and time step‐based metrics from the observed discharge time series. We explicitly account for uncertainty in the evaluation data by constructing uncertainty bounds from errors in the stage‐discharge rating curve relationship. Our study revealed large differences in model performance both between catchments and depending on the type of diagnostic used to constrain the simulations. Model performance varied with catchment characteristics and was best in wet catchments with a simple rainfall‐runoff relationship. The analysis showed that the value of different diagnostics in constraining catchment response and discriminating between competing conceptual hypotheses varies according to catchment characteristics. The information content held within water balance signatures was found to better capture catchment dynamics in chalk catchments, where catchment behaviour is predominantly controlled by seasonal and annual changes in rainfall, whereas the information content in the flow‐duration curve and time‐step performance metrics was able to better capture the dynamics of rainfall‐driven catchments. We also investigate the effect of model structure on model performance and demonstrate its (in)significance in reproducing catchment dynamics for different catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Effects of the catchment runoff coefficient on the performance of TOPMODEL in simulating catchment rainfall–runoff relationships are investigated in this paper, with an aim to improve TOPMODEL's simulation efficiency in catchments with a low runoff coefficient. Application of TOPMODEL in the semi‐arid Yihe catchment, with an area of 2623 km2 in the Yellow River basin of China, produced a Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency of about 80%. To investigate how the catchment runoff coefficient affects the performance of TOPMODEL, the whole observed discharge series of the Yihe catchment is multiplied with a larger‐than‐unity scale factor to obtain an amplified discharge series. Then TOPMODEL is used to simulate the amplified discharge series given the original rainfall and evaporation data. For a set of different scale factors, TOPMODEL efficiency is plotted against the corresponding catchment runoff coefficient and it is found that the efficiency of TOPMODEL increases with the increasing catchment runoff coefficient before reaching a peak (e.g. about 90%); after the peak, however, the efficiency of TOPMODEL decreases with the increasing catchment runoff coefficient. Based on this finding, an approach called the discharge amplification method is proposed to enhance the simulation efficiency of TOPMODEL in rainfall–runoff modelling in catchments with a low runoff coefficient. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
G. Ravazzani D. Bocchiola B. Groppelli A. Soncini M.C. Rulli F. Colombo 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1013-1016
AbstractFlood frequency estimation is crucial in both engineering practice and hydrological research. Regional analysis of flood peak discharges is used for more accurate estimates of flood quantiles in ungauged or poorly gauged catchments. This is based on the identification of homogeneous zones, where the probability distribution of annual maximum peak flows is invariant, except for a scale factor represented by an index flood. The numerous applications of this method have highlighted obtaining accurate estimates of index flood as a critical step, especially in ungauged or poorly gauged sections, where direct estimation by sample mean of annual flood series (AFS) is not possible, or inaccurate. Therein indirect methods have to be used. Most indirect methods are based upon empirical relationships that link index flood to hydrological, climatological and morphological catchment characteristics, developed by means of multi-regression analysis, or simplified lumped representation of rainfall–runoff processes. The limits of these approaches are increasingly evident as the size and spatial variability of the catchment increases. In these cases, the use of a spatially-distributed, physically-based hydrological model, and time continuous simulation of discharge can improve estimation of the index flood. This work presents an application of the FEST-WB model for the reconstruction of 29 years of hourly streamflows for an Alpine snow-fed catchment in northern Italy, to be used for index flood estimation. To extend the length of the simulated discharge time series, meteorological forcings given by daily precipitation and temperature at ground automatic weather stations are disaggregated hourly, and then fed to FEST-WB. The accuracy of the method in estimating index flood depending upon length of the simulated series is discussed, and suggestions for use of the methodology provided.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献