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1.
Using observation and reanaiysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCARPCM, axe systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models‘ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors axe displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compaxed with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure axe generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances axe much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability. 相似文献
2.
A most striking summer–winter difference of evolution of the intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) over the equatorial Indian Ocean is a quasi-stationary oscillation in boreal summer but eastward propagation in boreal winter. This feature is consistent with the observational fact that maximum ISO variance appears only in the eastern Indian Ocean in boreal summer while it appears across the entire basin in boreal winter. The cause of the distinctive propagation and initiation characteristics is investigated through the diagnosis of observational and reanalysis data for the period of 1982–2012. It is found that when the ISO convection appears over eastern Indian Ocean, a positive(negative) moisture tendency appears to the east of the convection in boreal winter(summer). It is the moisture tendency difference that is responsible for different propagation behavior in the summer and winter. A further diagnosis of the moisture budget indicates that the major difference lies in anomalous moisture advection by the mean flow. In addition, air–sea interaction also plays a role. While boreal winter ISO starts over western Indian Ocean, boreal summer ISO is initiated over central–eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, due to boundary layer moistening. The moisture increase is caused primarily by the horizontal advection of mean specific humidity by anomalous easterlies induced by preceding suppressed-phase ISO over eastern Indian Ocean. Besides, a delayed SST feedback also plays a role. The overall difference of ISO evolution between the summer and winter is regulated by the seasonal mean state including the mean SST and water vapor content. 相似文献
3.
The sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly of the eastern Indian Ocean （EIO） exhibits cold anomalies in the boreal summer or fall during E1 Nino development years and warm anomalies in winter or spring following the E1 Nino events. There also tend to be warm anomalies in the boreal summer or fall during La Nina development years and cold anomalies in winter or spring following the La Nina events. The seasonal phase-locking of SST change in the EIO associated with E1 Nino/Southern Oscillation is linked to the variability of convection over the maritime continent, which induces an atmospheric Rossby wave over the EIO. Local air-sea interaction exerts different effects on SST anomalies, depending on the relationship between the Rossby wave and the mean flow related to the seasonal migration of the buffer zone, which shifts across the equator between summer and winter. The summer cold events start with cooling in the Timor Sea, together with increasing easterly flow along the equator. Negative SST anomalies develop near Sumatra, through the interaction between the atmospheric Rossby wave and the underneath sea surface. These SST anomalies are also contributed to by the increased upwelling of the mixed layer and the equatorward temperature advection in the boreal fall. As the buffer zone shifts across the equator towards boreal winter, the anomalous easterly flow tends to weaken the mean flow near the equator, and the EIO SST increases due to the reduction of latent heat flux from the sea surface. As a result, wintertime SST anomalies appear with a uniform and nearly basin-wide pattern beneath the easterly anomalies. These SST anomalies are also caused by the increase in solar radiation associated with the anticyclonic atmospheric Rossby wave over the EIO. Similarly, the physical processes of the summer warm events, which are followed by wintertime cold SST anomalies, can be explained by the changes in atmospheric and oceanic fields with opposite signs to those anomalies described above. 相似文献
4.
In a sharp contrast to tropical cyclone(TC) genesis over the main development region of the western North Pacific(WNP), near-equatorial(0°–5°N) TCs exhibit a distinctive annual cycle, peaking in boreal winter and being inactive in boreal summer. The relative roles of dynamic and thermodynamic background states on near-equatorial TCs formation were investigated based on the observational diagnosis of the genesis potential index(GPI) and high-resolution model simulations. It is found that the background vorticity makes a major contribution to the distinctive annual cycle, while mean temperature and specific humidity fields are not critical. Numerical simulations further indicate that seasonal mean cyclonic vorticity in boreal winter has three effects on TC genesis near the equator. First, the environmental cyclonic vorticity interacts with TC vortex to promote a mid-level outflow, which strengthens boundary layer friction induced ascending motion and thus condensational heating. Second, it produces an equivalent Coriolis effect(via enhanced absolute vorticity), which strengthens positive feedback between primary and secondary circulation. Third, it helps to merge small-scale vortical hot towers(VHTs) into a mesoscale core through vorticity segregation process. However, background vorticity in boreal summer has an opposite effect on TC development near the equator. 相似文献
5.
In this paper, the dynamic effect of oceanic upwelling on the intensity of El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a simple coupled model (Zebiak-Cane Model). The term balance analysis in the temperature variability equation shows that the anomalous upwelling of the mean vertical temperature gradient and the mean advection of the anomalous meridional temperature gradient are the two of most important factors that determine the intensity of ENSO events, in which the "vertical oceanic heat flux" in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) is the primary influencing factor. The lag correlation between "vertical heat flux (VHF)" and ENSO intensity shows that the highest correlation occurs when the former leads the latter by one to two weeks. The VHF is positively correlated with the background thermocline strength in the EEP, and an increase of both could result in strong ENSO variability. Comparison of the forced and coupled experiments suggests that the coupled process can affect both the intensity and frequency of ENSO. 相似文献
6.
Estimating the Predictability of the Quasi-Biweekly Oscillation Using the Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent Approach 
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下载免费PDF全文 The quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) is a major intraseasonal variability (ISV) in the tropics. Based on bandpass-filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and wind field data, the predictability limits of the QBWO in boreal summer and boreal winter are investigated using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) approach The analysis shows that the evolution of the mean error growth of the QBWO in boreal summer and the evolution of the mean error growth in boreal winter are comparable Both curves exhibit rapid growth in the initial stage followed by a slowly fluctuating, ascending trend before saturation is reached. As a result, the potential predictability limits for the boreal summer QBWO are very close to those for the boreal winter QBWO, with a lead time of approximately three weeks. Given the current limitations in the simulation and prediction of ISV, including the QBWO, the results of this study provide a useful reference for assessing the predictability of the QBWO using model simulations. 相似文献
7.
According to the latest version(version 2.0) of the China global Merged Surface Temperature(CMST2.0) dataset, the global mean surface temperature(GMST) in the first half of 2023 reached its third warmest value since the period of instrumental observation began, being only slightly lower than the values recorded in 2016 and 2020, and historically record-breaking GMST emerged from May to July 2023. Further analysis also indicates that if the surface temperature in the last five months of 2023 appr... 相似文献
8.
In the context of 1905-1995 series from Nanjing and Hangzhou, study is undertaken of establishing a predictive model of annual mean temperature in 1996-2005 to come over the Changjiang (Yangtze River) delta region through mean generating function and artificial neural network in combination. Results show that the established model yields mean error of 0.45℃ for their absolute values of annual mean temperature from 10 yearly independent samples (1986-1995) and the difference between the mean predictions and related measurements is 0.156℃. The developed model is found superior to a mean generating function regression model both in historical data fitting and independent sample prediction. 相似文献
9.
Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Nino events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Nino event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)magnitude over the Nino 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Nino events(i.e.,1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Nino event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Nino events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Nino is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature(as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Nino events.As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection. 相似文献
10.
Upper-level jet streams over East Asia simulated by the LASG/IAP coupled climate system model FGOALS-s2 were assessed, and the mean state bias explained in terms of synoptic-scale transient eddy activity (STEA). The results showed that the spatial distribution of the seasonal mean jet stream was reproduced well by the model, except that following a weaker meridional temperature gradient (MTG), the intensity of the jet stream was weaker than in National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP)/Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project Ⅱ reanalysis data (NCEP2). Based on daily mean data, the jet core number was counted to identify the geographical border between the East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ) and the East Asian Polar-front Jet (EAPJ). The border is located over the Tibetan Plateau according to NCEP2 data, but was not evident in FGOALS-s2 simulations. The seasonal cycles of the jet streams were found to be reasonably reproduced, except that they shifted northward relative to reanalysis data in boreal summer owing to the northward shift of negative MTGs. To identify the reasons for mean state bias, the dynamical and thermal forcings of STEA on mean flow were examined with a focus on boreal winter. The dynamical and thermal forcings were estimated by extended Eliassen-Palm flux (E) and transient heat flux, respectively. The results showed that the failure to reproduce the tripolar-pattern of the divergence of E over the jet regions led to an unsuccessful separation of the EASJ and EAPJ, while dynamical forcing contributed less to the weaker EASJ. In contrast, the weaker transient heat flux partly explained the weaker EASJ over the ocean. 相似文献
11.
Interdecadal Variations of Precipitation and Temperature in China Around the Abrupt Change of Atmospheric Circulation in 1976 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The interdecadal characteristics of rainfall and temperature in China before and after the abrupt change of the general circulation in 1976 are analyzed using the global 2.5°×2.5° monthly mean reanalysis data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction of US and the precipitation and temperature data at the 743 stations of China from the National Climate Center of China. The results show that after 1976, springtime precipitation and temperature were anomalously enhanced and reduced respectively in South China, while the reverse was true in the western Yangtze River basin. In summer, precipitation was anomalously less in South China, more in the Yangtze River basin, less again in North China and more again in Northeast China, showing a distribution pattern alternating with negative and positive anomalies （＂ , ＋, -, ＋＂）. Meanwhile, temperature shows a distribution of warming in South China, cooling in the Yangtze and Huaihe River basins, and warming again in northern China. In autumn, precipitation tended to decrease and temperature tended to increase in in South China and warming was most parts of the country. In winter, the trend across all parts of China. precipitation increased moderately The interdecadal decline of mean temperature in spring and summer in China was mainly due to the daily maximum temperature variation, while the interdecadal increase was mainly the result of the minimum temperature change. The overall warming in autumn （winter） was mostly influenced by the minimum （maximum） temperature variation. These changes were closely related to the north-south shifts of the ascending and descending branches of the Hadley cell, the strengthening and north-south progression of the westerly jet stream, and the atmospheric stratification and water vapor transport conditions. 相似文献
12.
Global and Regional Impacts of Vegetation on the Hydrological Cycle and Energy Budget as Represented by the Community Atmosphere Model （CAM3） 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The effects of vegetation and its seasonal variation on energy and the hydrological cycle were examined using a state-of-the-art Community Atmosphere Model （CAM3）. Three 15-year numerical experiments were completed： the first with realistic vegetation characteristics varying monthly （VEG run）, the second without vegetation over land （NOVEG run）, and the third with the vegetation characteristics held at their annual mean values （VEGMEAN run）. In these models, the hydrological cycle and land surface energy budget were widely affected by vegetation. Globaland annual-mean evapotranspiration significantly increased compared with the NOVEG by 11.8% in the VEG run run, while runoff decreased by 13.2% when the realistic vegetation is incorporated. Vegetation plays different roles in different regions. In tropical Asia, vegetation-induced cooling of the land surface plays a crucial role in decreasing tropical precipitation. In middle latitudes and the Amazon region, however, the vegetation-induced increase of evapotranspiration plays a more important role in increasing precipitation. The seasonal variation of vegetation also shows clear influences on the hydrological cycle and energy budget. In the boreal mid-high latitudes where vegetation shows a strong seasonal cycle, evapotranspiration and precipitation are higher in the summer in the VEG run than in the VEGMEAN run. 相似文献
13.
Climate Change in the Subtropical Jetstream during 1950–2009 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A study of six decades(1950–2009) of reanalysis data reveals that the subtropical jetstream(STJ) of the Southern(Northern) Hemisphere between longitudes 0°E and 180°E has weakened(strengthened) during both the boreal winter(January,February) and summer(July, August) seasons. The temperature of the upper troposphere of the midlatitudes has a warming trend in the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling trend in the Northern Hemisphere. Correspondingly, the north–south temperature gradient in the upper troposphere has a decreasing trend in the Southern Hemisphere and an increasing trend in the Northern Hemisphere, which affects the strength of the STJ through the thermal wind relation. We devised a method of isotach analysis in intervals of 0.1 m s-1in vertical sections of hemispheric mean winds to study the climate change in the STJ core wind speed, and also core height and latitude. We found that the upper tropospheric cooling of the Asian mid-latitudes has a role in the strengthening of the STJ over Asia, while throughout the rest of the globe the upper troposphere has a warming trend that weakens the STJ. Available studies show that the mid-latitude cooling of the upper troposphere over Asia is caused by anthropogenic aerosols(particularly sulphate aerosols) and the warming over the rest of the global mid-latitude upper troposphere is due to increased greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 相似文献
14.
ON TEMPERATURE CHANGES OF SHANGHAI AND URBANIZATION IMPACTS 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
To understand how temperature varies in urban Shanghai under the background of global
climate change and how it is affected by urbanization, the Shanghai temperature responses to global
warming were analyzed, and then the temperature trends of urban and suburb stations under
different climatic backgrounds were obtained. The urbanization effects on temperature were studied
by comparing urban stations to suburb stations, the relationship between urbanization variables and
temperature components were obtained, and observation data of surface and high level were
combined to assess the contribution of urbanization effect. In the last part of the paper, the cause of
urbanization effects on temperature was discussed. The results indicated: The long term change
trend of Shanghai annual mean temperature is 1.31/100a from 1873 to 2004, the periods of 1921 –
1948 and 1979 – 2004 are warmer, and the 1979 – 2004 period is the warmest; compared to suburb
stations, the representative urban station has slower decreases in the cool period and faster increases
in the warm one; the urban and suburb temperatures have distinct differences resulting from
urbanization and the differences are increasing by the year, with the difference of mean temperature
and minimum temperature being the greatest in fall and that of maximum temperature being the
largest in summer between the urban and suburban areas. The urbanization process accelerates the
warming speed, with the minimum temperature being the most obvious; the urbanization effect
contributes a 0.4°C increase in 1980s and 1.1°C in 1990s to the annual mean temperature. 相似文献
15.
This study simulates the effective radiative forcing(ERF) of tropospheric ozone from 1850 to 2013 and its effects on global climate using an aerosol–climate coupled model, BCC AGCM2.0.1 CUACE/Aero, in combination with OMI(Ozone Monitoring Instrument) satellite ozone data. According to the OMI observations, the global annual mean tropospheric column ozone(TCO) was 33.9 DU in 2013, and the largest TCO was distributed in the belts between 30°N and 45°N and at approximately 30°S; the annual mean TCO was higher in the Northern Hemisphere than that in the Southern Hemisphere;and in boreal summer and autumn, the global mean TCO was higher than in winter and spring. The simulated ERF due to the change in tropospheric ozone concentration from 1850 to 2013 was 0.46 W m~(-2), thereby causing an increase in the global annual mean surface temperature by 0.36℃, and precipitation by 0.02 mm d~(-1)(the increase of surface temperature had a significance level above 95%). The surface temperature was increased more obviously over the high latitudes in both hemispheres, with the maximum exceeding 1.4?C in Siberia. There were opposite changes in precipitation near the equator,with an increase of 0.5 mm d~(-1)near the Hawaiian Islands and a decrease of about-0.6 mm d~(-1)near the middle of the Indian Ocean. 相似文献
16.
The regionalization of climate in China is based on a three-level classification in terms of lasting days for accumulated temperature （AT）,aridity index,and July mean temperature.Based on daily meteorological observational data from 756 stations,trends and interdecadal variation in indices for classifying temperature zones,moisture regions and climatic subregions in the period 1961-2010 are discussed.Results reveal that the nationwide AT ≥ 10℃C （AT10） and its lasting days are basically increasing,while aridity in northern Xinjiang is decreasing.The increasing trend of July mean temperature in North China is found to be notably larger than in South China.In terms of their national averages,a marked step increase of AT10 and its lasting period,as well as July mean temperature occurred around 1997,while the aridity index presents no such clear change.By comparing regionalization areas for 1998-2010 with those for 1961-97,it is found that the semi-humid,semi-dry and dry regions in the sub-temperate zone,as well as the humid region in the middle subtropical zone,have experienced substantial shrinkage in terms of area.In contrast,the areas of semi-dry and dry regions in the warm temperate zone,as well as the humid region in the south subtropical zone,present drastically increasing trends.Owing to the influence of such step changes that took place in 1997,that particular point in time should be given close attention in future studies regarding the regionalization of climate in China. 相似文献
17.
With the EOF of reanalysis data being analyzed, a northern-
southern dipole is found in the upper troposphere geopotential height
field of over the Asian-Australian monsoon region in the winter of the
Northern Hemisphere (NH), which is defined as Asian-Australian dipole
(AAD) in this study. Its intensity index is defined as AADI.
Correlation and synthetic analysis illustrate that AADI is closely
related to the weather and climate of Asian-Australian region in boreal
winter. The index can reflect the simultaneous anomalies of temperature
and precipitation on interannual and decadal scales in the boreal
winter of Asian-Australian region. The superposition of the decadal and
interannual signals is significant for the relationship between the
AADI and climate change. The index can be used as an indicator of
intensity of the Asian-Australian monsoon. In the years of strong AADI,
the East Asia major deep trough is stronger, the Subtropical High is
weaker and the Alaska ridge and the westerly jet are stronger than
those in normal years. Enhanced meridional circulation between high and
low latitudes exists in the years of strong AADI. These relationships
reflect the intrinsic link between the anomalies in the upper
troposphere geopotential height and climate in the Asian-Australian
region. 相似文献
18.
By using the monthly data from 1951 through 1984, empirical orthogonal expansion is performed for the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 65°N and the canonical fields are clustered by fuzzy classification. It is noted that both the mean monthly polar vortex fields and the large-scale anomaly fields fall into three regimes, with those of the January mean field and th April anomaly field having characteristic features. In addition, the relationship between the time weigthing coefficients of the canonical fields and El Nino / SO is examined, showing significant anomalies in the large-scale polar anomaly fields during April and October of the year when El Nino occurs. These polar circulation anomalies have considerably influenced the temperature fields in China during April and October. Thus, we may conclude that this is one of the most important reasons for a relatively cool April and a warm October in China during the El Nino year. 相似文献
19.
A SIMPLIFIED MODEL STUDY ON THE SHORT-TERM CLIMATIC EFFECT OF SNOWFALL ANOMALY IN MID-HIGH LATITUDES
A simulation of the annual variation of temperature and moisture in the atmosphere and sublayer of soil in mid-high latitudes has been performed with a one-dimensional atmosphere-land coupled model, in which snowmelt process is included. The computed temperature variations in each latitudinal belt are consistent with the seasonal change of snowextent over continents in the Northern Hemisphere.To analyse the short-term climatic effect of snowfall anomaly, two sets of experiments have carried out by using the above simplified model, i. e. 1) the snowmelt period is earlier than the climatic mean and 2) snowdepth is less than the climatic mean. The results are shown in the present paper. In the first experiment, snow melts earlier, and comparing with the normal annual variation, the absorption of solar radiation increases significantly due to the earlier decrease of albedo. Thus the surface temperature is higher, and latent and sensible heat fluxes are enhanced. This process is characterized by thermal anom 相似文献
20.
Understanding the Global Surface-Atmosphere Energy Balance in FGOALS-s2 through an Attribution Analysis of the Global Temperature Biases 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 Based on an attribution analysis of the global mean temperature biases in the Flexible Global OceanAtmosphere-Land System model, spectral version 2(FGOALS-s2) through a coupled atmosphere-surface climate feedback-response analysis method(CFRAM), the model's global surface-atmosphere energy balance in boreal winter and summer is examined. Within the energy-balance-based CFRAM system, the model temperature biases are attributed to energy perturbations resulting from model biases in individual radiative and non-radiative processes in the atmosphere and at the surface. The results show that, although the global mean surface temperature(Ts) bias is only 0.38 K in January and 1.70 K in July, and the atmospheric temperature(Ta) biases from the troposphere to the stratosphere are only around ±3 K at most, the temperature biases due to model biases in representing the individual radiative and non-radiative processes are considerably large(over ±10 K at most). Specifically, the global cold radiative Ts bias, mainly due to the overestimated surface albedo, is compensated for by the global warm non-radiative Ts bias that is mainly due to the overestimated downward surface heat fluxes. The model biases in non-radiative processes in the lower troposphere(up to 5–15 K) are relatively much larger than in upper levels, which are mainly responsible for the warm Ta biases there. In contrast, the global mean cold Ta biases in the mid-to-upper troposphere are mainly dominated by radiative processes. The warm/cold Ta biases in the lower/upper stratosphere are dominated by non-radiative processes, while the warm Ta biases in the mid-stratosphere can be attributed to the radiative ozone feedback process. 相似文献