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1.
Seismicity patterns that characterize the seismic regime of the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes are investigated using an earthquake catalogue extending from 1974 to 1998. The analysis is made separately on two characteristic segments of the subducted plate (active zones) which hosted the major earthquakes of 4 March 1977, 30 August 1986 and 30 May 1990. Precursory anomalies preceding the occurrence of the major shock of 1986 (Mw = 7.3) in the lower part of the subducted slab are outlined when analyzing the time variation of the parameter (defined as the ratio of small to moderate events in a given active zone and a given time interval) and of the fractal dimension of the earthquake space distribution. Nothing similar is noticed in the upper part of the Vrancea slab. The analyzed time interval covering 25 years shows that, in contrast to previous studies, the statistical fluctuations of the parameter, computed for a time window of 5 months, appear to be too large to be considered as precursory anomalies. Significant differences among characteristic depth segments are also outlined in the frequency–magnitude distribution and are possibly related to differences in the physical mechanism of the earthquake generation process.  相似文献   

2.
A parameterization derived from the Weibull distribution is used to model the seismic activity of the Vrancea region.The analysis of 498 crustal earthquakes with local magnitudes greater than 2.0, and 1377 subcrustal events with local magnitudes greater than 2.5 emphasizes that the shallow sequences show a strong clustering tendency, while the intermediate depth mainshock sequences are modeled by a completely random pattern in space and time. These results are not influenced by the magnitude threshold and the width of the time window.The difference between the seismicity patterns in the crust and in the subcrustal zone correlates with the difference between the stress field within these two regions.  相似文献   

3.
A systematic investigation of the applicability of several ground motion prediction models for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source is conducted in this research. Two ground motion prediction models recommended by previous evaluations (Vacareanu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 11(6):1867–1884, 2013a; Pavel et al. in Earthq Struct 6(1):1–18, 2014), as well as two new state-of-the-art ground motion prediction equations (Vacareanu et al. in J Earthq Eng, 2013b; Earthq Struct 6(2):141–161, 2014) are tested using an increased strong ground motion database consisting of 150 recordings from Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes. The evaluation is performed by using several goodness-of-fit parameters from the literature. Moreover, the applicability of the single-station sigma method is also investigated by using the same strong ground motion database recorded in 30 seismic stations from southern and eastern Romania. The influence of the soil conditions on the numerical results obtained in this study is investigated and discussed using the results provided by the analysis of variance method. The impact of the single-station standard deviation on the levels of seismic hazard is also assessed in this study, and the results show, in the analyzed cases, significant reductions of the hazard levels.  相似文献   

4.
An inversion of P-wave travel time residuals from selected earthquakes in the distance range 30°–98° to two seismic station networks was used to model P-wave velocity anomalies down to 250 km depth. In the first inversion experiment a region between 43.5°–47.5°N and 21°–29°E was modelled, using 35 seismic stations, while in the second one a region between 44°–47°N and 25°–29°E was modelled, using 19 seismic stations. The 4-layer block model of the first inversion offers 19% reduction in residual variance, while the 5-layer block model of the second one offers 26% reduction, the rest being explained by noise and smaller scale heterogeneities. The obtained velocity anomalies correlate remarkably well with the gravity anomalies and with the tectonic model for the Vrancea region of Fuchs et al. (1979).  相似文献   

5.
The possibility that the Earth's tides are a triggering factor of Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes is investigated in the first part of this paper. A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes and geomagnetic jerks is demonstrated in the second part. The last part of the paper presents a number of results concerning a possible relationship between the regularities of strong Vrancea subcrustal seismicity and the Chandler nutation parameters. An attempt is made to integrate all of these phenomena in a more general framework that takes into account physical processes in the Earth mantle and core. A long-term prediction of the next strong Vrancea earthquake is finally attempted.  相似文献   

6.
Simple spectral theory of seismic sources was used to determine source parameters directly related to medium properties (stress drop, seismic efficiency and fracture energy) and quality factors of the Vrancea (Romania) seismic region. The results show an increase in maximum static stress drop, maximum seismic efficiency and fracture energy with depth. The seismic efficiency is magnitude independent, but the stress drop is magnitude independent only for events with ML > 3.8; below this value, the logarithm of stress drop increases quasi-linearly with magnitude. In the depth interval 50–160 km the stress drop increases with a slope of about 2–3 bar/km. The fracture energy per unit area of the fault has values of the order of 105–108 erg/cm2.The frequency independent quality factors indicate that the attenuation of P waves is generally higher than that of S waves and that Qp values are in agreement with recent tectonic models for the Vrancea region: total decoupling of the slab now sinking gravitationally is present only in the southwestern part of the Vrancea region, as suggested by the spatial position of intermediate depth hypocenters.  相似文献   

7.
Since 1964, the Geophysical Laboratory in Tahiti has been charged with the responsibility of issuing tsunami warnings. But this research laboratory is also designed to conduct other missions. One of them is to study an oversee seismicity and volcanism in the South Central Pacific. For this activity the Geophysical Laboratory, which is also the French Polynesia Tsunami Warning Center (Centre Polynésien de Prévention des Tsunamis — CPPT), processes the data recorded by the Polynesian Seismic Network which includes 21 short-period stations, 4 broad-band three-component long period stations, and 2 tide gauge stations. These stations are, for the most, telemetered to CPPT in Tahiti which is equipped wilh data processing capabilities.At CPPT, Tsunami Warning is based on the measurement of the Seismic Moment through the mantle magnitudeM m and the proportionality of observed tsunami height to this seismic moment.The new mantle magnitude scale,M m, uses the measurement of the mantle of Rayleigh and Love wave energy in the 50–300 s period range and is directly related to the seismic moment throughM m = logM o – 20. Knowledge of the seismic moment allows an estimation of a range of high seas amplitudes for the expectable tsunami.The relation that estimates the tsunami height according to the seismic moment is based on the normal mode tsunami theory but also fits a dataset of 17 tsunamis recorded at Papeete (PPT) since 1958. This procedure is fully automatic: a computer detects, locates and estimates the seismic moment through theM m magnitude and, in terms of moment, gives an amplitude window for the expected tsunami. These-several operations are executed in real time. In addition, the operator can use historical references and, if necessary, acoustic T waves.This automatic procedure, which has been operating at the CPPT since 1986, is certainly transposable and applicable to other tsunami warning centers that issue warnings for earthquakes detected more than 1000 km away, and has significant potential in the regional field.  相似文献   

8.
Öncel  A. O.  Alptekin  Ö. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):1-11
In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (m, b and Mmax) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (Mmax, the seismic activity rate (m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.  相似文献   

9.
A study of the shallow and intermediate depth seismicity of the Romanian Vrancea region in the period 1964–1981 has been performed. The seismic events have been relocated by a standard location procedure using a regional velocity model. From the temporal and spatial distribution of the seismic activity, aspects of the seismicity before the large March 4, 1977 earthquake are treated, in particular the seismic gap in space and time prior to this event, found by Mârze (1979), which is critically discussed and revised. The concept of the precursor time/magnitude relationships of different authors is applied and its validity to the Vrancea region assessed. The hypocentral distribution shows that the intermediate depth seismic activity is confined to a small volume with dimensions of only some tens of kilometers. The results are interpreted in terms of the tectonics of the region. From an analysis of the travel-time residuals at different local stations, evidence for lateral velocity heterogeneities beneath the region is obtained e.g. a high velocity zone southeastwards of the Carpathian chain. Finally mean ratios, (i.e. Poisson's ratios), for various stations are calculated from P- and S-wave travel times. They show azimuthal variations of up to 6% for stations within the area where the intermediate seismic activity occurs in comparison with the station Focsani, situated eastwards in the Carpathian foredeeps. All these results are compatible with the plate tectonic concept for the Vrancea region, that is the subduction of an oceanic lithospheric slab under the Carpathian mountain arc, giving rise to such a highly active seismic zone.  相似文献   

10.
The amplitude domain analysis applied to the major Vrancea (Romania) earthquake of 30 August 1986 leads to the determination of some parameters characterizing the amplitude and the time duration of the signal.Digital three-component acceleration data, obtained at 10 Romanian seismic stations with epicentral distances between 40 and 200 km, are used. The results are compared with those obtained by Schenk for strong Californian earthquakes.Paper presented in the 21st General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission, Sofia, 1988.  相似文献   

11.
该文对濮阳台记录的21次地震进行了地震波衰减研究,讨论了地球介质品质因子随频率变化的关系;利用不同地震采用不同流逝时间的尾波品质因子测定方法,有效去除了由于不同地震或同一地震的地震散射波在纵向介质中穿透深度的不同而导致对品质因子测量结果的影响,从而有利于扑捉到品质因子的异常变化特征与地震孕育过程的关系。利用改进后的模型,对鲁豫交界地区尾波值进行了计算,得到了该地区品质因子随频率的变化关系和区域介质衰减的时间变化特征。  相似文献   

12.
The frequency dependence of the function of the seismic wave attenuation was determined for the first time for southern Sakhalin on the basis of seismic coda of local earthquakes using the model of single scattering. The algorithm of the automated definition of the scalar seismic moments was realized for small earthquake foci. Mass estimates of the scalar seismic moments were obtained as exemplified by the after-shocks of the August 17, 2006, Gornozavodsk earthquake (MW 5.6) and the May–June 2004 Kostromskoe earthquake swarm events, which occurred in South Sakhalin. The dynamic parameters of the earthquake foci were determined from the SH-wave spectra adjusted for absorption and geometrical spreading. The loglinear relationship determined between the seismic moment and the local magnitude is in good agreement with the estimates obtained for other regions and, in a certain sense, does not contradict the average world dependence.  相似文献   

13.
Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (MW = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (MW = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (MW = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ MW ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events.  相似文献   

14.
We present the results of a systematic search for the identification of accelerating seismic crustal deformation in the broader northern Aegean area and in northwestern Turkey. We found that accelerating seismic deformation release, expressed by the generation of intermediate magnitude earthquakes, is currently observed in NW Turkey. On the basis of the critical earthquake model and by applying certain constraints which hold between the basic quantities involved in this phenomenon, it can be expected that this accelerating seismic activity may culminate in the generation of two strong earthquakes in this area during the next few years.The estimated epicenter coordinates of the larger of these probably impending earthquakes are 39.7°N–28.8°E, its magnitude is 7.0 and its occurrence time tc=2003.5. The second strong event is expected to occur at tc=2002.5 with a magnitude equal to 6.4 and epicenter coordinates 40.0°N–27.4°E. The uncertainties in the calculated focal parameters for these expected events are of the order of 100 km for the epicenter, ±0.5 for their magnitude and ±1.5 years for their occurrence time.  相似文献   

15.
Gulf of Aqaba is recognized as an active seismic zone where many destructive earthquakes have occurred. The estimation of source parameters and coda Q attenuation are the main target of this work. Fifty digital seismic events in eight short-period seismic stations with magnitude 2.5–5.2 are used. Most of these events occurred at hypocentral depths in the range of 7–20 km, indicating that the activity was restricted in the upper crust. Seismic moment, M o, source radius, r, and stress drop, Δσ, are estimated from P- and S-wave spectra using the Brune’s seismic source model. The average seismic moment generated by the whole sequence of events was estimated to be 4.6E?+?22 dyne/cm. The earthquakes with higher stress drop occur at 10-km depth. The scaling relation between the seismic moment and the stress drop indicates a tendency of increasing seismic moment with stress drop. The seismic moment increases with increasing the source radius. Coda waves are sensitive to changes in the subsurface due to the wide scattering effects generating these waves. Single scattering model of local earthquakes is used to the coda Q calculation. The coda with lapse times 10, 20, and 30 s at six central frequencies 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 18, 24 Hz are calculated. The Q c values are frequency dependent in the range 1–25 Hz, and are approximated by a least squares fit to the power law [ $ {Q_c}(f) = {Q_o}{(f/{f_o})^\eta } $ ]. The average of Q c values increases from 53?±?10 at 1.5 Hz to 700?±?120 at 24 Hz. The average of Q o values ranges from 13?±?1 at 1.5 Hz to 39?±?4 at 24 Hz. The frequency exponent parameter η ranges between 1.3?±?0.008 and 0.9?±?0.001.  相似文献   

16.
Seismic attenuation of coda waves in the eastern region of Cuba   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Cuba's seismic attenuation had never been studied in detail. In this paper we present the results of the research on the seismic attenuation of Cuba's eastern zone based upon the information collected by the seismological Cuban network from 1998 to 2003. 581 earthquakes were selected from the Cuban catalogue to make this study. All of them, recorded by at least three seismic stations, had their epicenters located in the eastern Cuban region (19.3–22 N, 79–73 W), epicentral distances between 15 km and 213 km, their coda duration magnitudes ranging from 2 and 4.1 and their focal depths reaching up to 30 km. The seismic wave attenuation was studied using coda waves. The single scattering method proposed by Sato in 1977 was applied, the attenuation and frequency dependency for different paths and the correlation of the results with the geotectonics of the region are presented in this paper.The mean Qc value calculated was Qc = (64 ± 2)f0.84 ± 0.01. The relatively low Q0 and the high frequency dependency agree with the values of a region characterized by a high tectonic activity. The Qc values of seven subregions of eastern Cuba were calculated and correlated with the geology and tectonics of the area.  相似文献   

17.
Coda wave attenuation is estimated for Qeshm Island which is located in the southeastern part of Zagros. For this purpose, the aftershocks of Qeshm earthquake in November 27, 2005, recorded within an epicentral distance less than 100 km, have been used. More than 829 earthquakes were recorded by a local temporary network consisting of 16 short period stations installed after a week after the main shock for ～10 weeks. The coda quality factor, Q c, was estimated using the single-backscattering model in frequency bands of 0.5–24 Hz. In this research, lateral and vertical variations of coda Q in Qeshm Island are explored. In Qeshm Island, absence of significant lateral variation of coda Q is observed. To investigate the attenuation variation with depth, the coda Q value was calculated for coda time windows with different lengths (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 s). It is observed that coda Q increases with depth. However, in our study area, the rate of increase of coda Q with depth is not uniform. Beneath Qeshm Island, the rate of increase of coda Q is greater at depths less than ～40 km compared with those of larger depths. This is indicating the existence of a low attenuation anomalous structure under the ～40-km depth which may be correlated with the Moho depth in this region. The average frequency relation for this region is Q c = 36 ± 1.2f 0.94 ± 0.039 at a 5 s-lapse time window length and Q c = 110 ± 1.8f 0.88 ± 0.09 at a 30-s lapse time window length.  相似文献   

18.
The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.  相似文献   

19.
Speidel  D. H.  Mattson  P. H. 《Natural Hazards》1997,16(2-3):165-179
The use of b-values derived from the Gutenberg–Richter relationship as a phenomenological base for developing probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA) has been questioned for years. The relationship is still used because political demands require something for PSHA, one variable is easy to deal with, and no persuasive alternative has come forward. Using cumulative distribution probability plots, it can be shown that seismic magnitude-frequency data can be well described as one or more populations, each of which is normally distributed with respect to magnitude. This holds true for large earthquakes when sorted by mechanism, for earthquakes >400 km deep, for the general USGS NEIC catalog, for the Harvard CMT catalog, for the CERI catalog of the New Madrid Zone, and for a Scandinavian catalog. In all instances, multiple normal populations provide a better fit to the data than does the Gutenberg–Richter relationship. Use of these multiple populations in PSHA emphasizes that the scientifically sound limits of magnitude projection are within the 4 limit of the largest populations. Such graphs may make it easier to resist political requirement to extrapolate into scientifically unsound regions.  相似文献   

20.
The systematic analysis of seismograms recorded on the Romanian territory using Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes shows a strong asymmetric pattern relative to the epicentral area: on one side, in the Transylvanian Basin and the Eastern Carpathians (approximately along the inner volcanic chain), the amplitudes are reduced by a factor of 20 on average and the high frequencies are attenuated, in contrast with the other side, in the foreland platform. This pattern is explained by a significant attenuation increase caused by a strong lateral variation of the structure in the upper mantle, immediately towards NW of the Vrancea seismic active volume. This region corresponds to the most recent volcanic activity in the Persani Mountains and with the low-velocity body adjacent toward NW to the high-velocity body subducted beneath Vrancea area as indicated by seismic tomography and heat flow results. The CALIXTO'99 tomography experiment, deployed for 6 months in 1999, provides the largest number of observations for Vrancea earthquakes ever recorded on the Romanian territory. We select data from 8 earthquakes generated in this time interval in the Vrancea nest, which were recorded with signal / noise ratio greater than 5 by at least 25 stations. All of them are small- to moderate-magnitude events (3.6 ≤ Mw ≤ 4.2). The attenuation is much more important in the high-frequency range (> 1 Hz), than at low frequencies. Since the large Vrancea earthquakes can radiate significant energy in the low-frequency range (< 1 Hz), our results show that the seismic hazard level is much more uniform all over the Romanian territory in the low-frequency range than in the high-frequency range.  相似文献   

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