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1.
E. Papadimitriou V. Karakostas M. Tranos B. Ranguelov D. Gospodinov 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2007,96(5):911-924
Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity
to populated centers. The long recurrence intervals, of the order of several hundred years as suggested by previous investigations,
imply that the twentieth century activation along the southern boundary of the sub-Balkan graben system, is probably associated
with stress transfer among neighbouring faults or fault segments. Fault interaction is investigated through elastic stress
transfer among strong main shocks (M ≥ 6.0), and in three cases their foreshocks, which ruptured distinct or adjacent normal fault segments. We compute stress
perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed
for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in
the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (ΔCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were
calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account
both the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. We
evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modeling
results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbors and reduced the
stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic
hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes. 相似文献
2.
Northeast China, a densely populated area, is affected by intense seismic activity, which includes large events that caused extensive disaster and tremendous loss of life. For contributing to the continuous efforts for seismic hazard assessment, the earthquake potential from the active faults near the cities of Zhangjiakou and Langfang in Hebei Province is examined. We estimate the effect of the coseismic stress changes of strong (M ⩾ 5.0) earthquakes on the major regional active faults, and mapped Coulomb stress change onto these target faults. More importantly our calculations reveal that positive stress changes caused by the largest events of the 1976 Tangshan sequence make the Xiadian and part of Daxing fault, thus considered the most likely sites of the next strong earthquake in the study area. The accumulated static stress changes that reached a value of up to 0.4 bar onto these faults, were subsequently incorporated in earthquake probability estimates for the next 30 years. 相似文献
3.
Seismic potential of Southern Italy 总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1
To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7. 相似文献
4.
The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I
max~8–9, M
max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic
potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data
on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential
rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness
of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and
GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the
fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments
within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km2. Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the
last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential
rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF
is in the range M
max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7). 相似文献
5.
The Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone is seismically one of the most active and complex subduction zones that produced the 26
December 2004 mega thrust earthquake (Mw 9.3) and large number of aftershocks. About 8,000 earthquakes, including more than
3,000 aftershocks (M ≥ 4.5) of the 2004 earthquake, recorded during the period 1964–2007, are relocated by the EHB method. We have analysed this
large data set to map fractal correlation dimension (Dc) and frequency-magnitude relation (b-value) characteristics of the seismogenic structures of this ~3,000-km-long mega thrust subduction zone in south-east Asia.
The maps revealed the seismic characteristics of the Andaman-Sumatra-Java trenches, West Andaman fault (WAF), Andaman Sea
Ridge (ASR), Sumatra and Java fault systems. Prominent N–S to NW–SE to E–W trending fractal dimension contours all along the
subduction zone with Dc between 0.6 and 1.4 indicate that the epicentres mostly follow linear features of the major seismogenic
structures. Within these major contours, several pockets of close contours with Dc ~ 0.2 to 0.6 are identified as zones of
epicentre clusters and are inferred to the fault intersections as well as asperity zones along the fault systems in the fore
arc. A spatial variation in the b-value (1.2–1.5) is also observed along the subduction zone with several pockets of lower b-values (1.2–1.3). The smaller b-value zones are corroborated with lower Dc (0.5–0.9), implying a positive correlation. These zones are identified to be the
zones of more stress or asperity where rupture nucleation of intermediate to strong magnitude earthquakes occurred. 相似文献
6.
We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of Ml ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km2 around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an Ml ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km2 is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information. 相似文献
7.
New observational information on the precursory accelerating and decelerating strain energy release 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3
Recent reliable data are used to study the behavior of seismic activity before 46 strong shallow earthquakes (M ≥ 6.0), which correspond to five complete samples of mainshocks. These samples include 6 mainshocks (M = 6.0–7.1) that occurred in western Mediterranean since 1980, 17 mainshocks (M = 6.0–7.2) which occurred in the Aegean (Greece and surrounding area) since 1980, 5 mainshocks (M = 6.4–7.5) that occurred in Anatolia since 1980, 12 mainshocks (M = 6.0–7.3) that occurred in California since 1980 and 6 mainshocks (M = 7.0–8.3) that occurred in Japan since 1990. In all 46 cases, a similar precursory seismicity pattern is observed. Specifically, it is observed that accelerating Benioff strain (square root of seismic energy) release caused by preshocks occurs in a broad circular region (critical region), with a radius about eight times larger than the fault length of the mainshock, in agreement with results obtained by various research groups during the last two decades. However, in a much smaller circular region (seismogenic region), with a radius about four times the fault length, the corresponding preshock strain decelerates with the time to the mainshock. The time variation of the strain follows in both cases a power law but the exponent power is smaller than unit (m ¯ = 0.3) in the case of the accelerating preshock strain and larger than unit (m ¯ = 3.0) in the case of the decelerating preshock strain. Predictive properties of this “Decelerating In–Accelerating Out Strain” model are expressed by empirical relations. The possibility of using this model for intermediate-term earthquake prediction is discussed and the relative model uncertainties are estimated. 相似文献
8.
Analysis of vertical crustal deformation data in the southwestern part of Shikoku, southwest Japan, suggests that the Nankaido earthquake of 1946 (Mw = 8.1), which is a principal interplate thrust earthquake, was accompanied by subsidiary faulting on a splay fault adjacent to the coast of Shikoku. Discarding crustal movement resulting from the main thrusting of the Nankaido earthquake, local leveling data are explained by slip on a simple rectangular thrust fault located just offshore of Shikoku. Although it is difficult to constrain the fault location, a possible result is a high-angle thrust dipping landward at an angle of about 70°, with a dislocation of about 1.5 m, and source dimensions of 30 × 13 km along strike and dip. respectively. This result indicates that the fault may be one of the steeply dipping subsidiary faults branching from the main low-angle thrust, as was the case in the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Although several lines of evidence suggest that this faulting occurred as slow aseismic slip, its discrimination from the main seismic event is extremely difficult. This kind of high-angle thrusting just offshore of the coast would play an important role for the formation of the marine terraces during the late Quaternary period. 相似文献
9.
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11.
We have analysed the earthquake sequence occurred at Campi Flegrei during an unrest episode of strong ground uplift and seismicity, occurred in the period 1982–1984. The maximum magnitude of these events was about 4. Both earthquake occurrence and ground deformation have been interpreted in terms of the role played by a ring fault system, inward dipping, related to phenomena of caldera collapse and resurgence. Earthquakes are of mixed strike-slip and normal fault type. They show a dip movement opposite to the static ground deformation. The rising of the internal block with respect to the zone external to the ring fault, as observed by ground deformation, should cause thrust fault slip on the fracture system, whereas a normal fault dip component is observed. The simulation of the stress field generated by overpressure in a magma chamber in presence of lateral discontinuities, as performed by a boundary element method, allows to hypothesise that reverse fault slip on the ring fault is mainly aseismic, and such aseismic movement is able to focus normal fault shear stress along the lateral discontinuities. Aseismic slip on the ring fault in response to static deformation is also supported by the low amount of seismic moment released (M0 ≅ 1015 Nm), about two orders of magnitude lower than expected from the shear slip on the discontinuities needed to accomplish the total static surface deformation (1.8 m). Such results have been compared with observations at Rabaul caldera, during a similar unrest episode. In such area, the seismic moment release is in good agreement with shear slip produced on a system of outward dipping ring faults, and seismicity is much more focused on the fault structures. The comparison between the two areas shed new light about the dynamics of earthquakes in calderas, as due to the role of bordering ring fault systems. 相似文献
12.
The earthquakes and related tsunamis of October 6, 1944 and March 7, 1867; NE Aegean Sea 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
During two distinct earthquakes occurred on March 7, 1867 and October 6, 1944, tsunami waves were also observed at some localities
around the Gulf of Edremit, NE Aegean Sea. The first event (M
w = 6.8) mostly affected the city of Mitilini of Lesvos Island while the Gulf of Edremit-Ayvacık earthquake (M
S = 6.8) largely affected the northern and eastern coastal areas of the Gulf of Edremit. In 1944 earthquake, numerous surface
cracks and water gushes were reported. The coastal neighborhoods of the town of Ayvalık in the east were flooded by tsunami
waves. At the WSW extend of the main fault observed on land, which is parallel to the present-day slip vectors, some normal-oblique
faults were observed close and subparallel to the northern coast. On the basis of historical documents, reports, interviews,
geological setting, field observations and marine seismic reflection data, the 1944 earthquake was not triggered by one of
the main fault segments but by a secondary fault or fault group which was described in this study. Depending on the distribution
of tensional and compressional forces in the region, which rotates clockwise under the control of the middle strand of the
North Anatolian fault, secondary fault groups become important. The moment tensor parameters of such small-size events have
been determined and have obtained consistent results with the faults proposed in this study. 相似文献
13.
Elastic and visco-elastic stress triggering in the South Iceland Seismic Zone due to large earthquakes since 1706 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Damaging earthquakes in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) occur fairly regularly and often as a series of events with a few days only between individual events. Tolerably reliable information on epicentre locations and mechanisms are available for 13 M ≥ 6 events between 1706 and 2000. For these events, we computed the co- and post-seismic stress fields, hereby approximating the SISZ by a mixed elastic/visco-elastic layered half-space. The horizontal shear stress and the Coulomb stress changes were analysed to detect possible trigger mechanisms, which may aid future earthquake mitigation efforts. We tested several criteria but must conclude that the start of an earthquake series in the SISZ cannot be explained by triggering through previous events. Inside an individual series, however, one may infer triggering. Our results are in contradiction with the findings in other regions of the world. The reason might be related to the fact that the SISZ is not a mature fault zone, in which old faults are re-activated if a certain stress level threshold is passed. In addition, uncertainties in the model parameters as well as the neglect of horizontal variations in the model and of possible stress transfer due to volcanic activity further complicate the evaluation of our results and need to be taken into account in future studies. 相似文献
14.
Hurst's rescaled range analysis is a useful tool in the examination of a time series and is designed to measure memory content and determine its fractal texture. This study applies the Hurst method to a new earthquake catalogue for Greece. The study also adopts Monte Carlo simulations to provide a statistical test underpinning the Hurst analyses. Together these reveal basic temporal fractal characteristics in the earthquake occurrence time-histories' memory. Three regions are considered, approximately: all of Greece and some surrounding areas, and the sub-zones of the Hellenic Arc and the Gulf of Corinth. Three temporal textures are considered: elapsed time between earthquakes, strain energy release, and earthquake frequency. The elapsed temporal textures for the zone whole Greece indicate distinct characteristics in chronological order and possess long memory. These belong to the class non-random pattern. However, these characteristics generally disappear when the sub-zones are considered and become random patterns. The Monte Carlo simulations support this. Therefore, memoryless statistical seismic hazard estimates may not be suitable for whole Greece but could be useful for the sub-zones. The strain energy release temporal textures for whole Greece and for the sub-zones, no matter that these seem to possess long memory at first analysis, are all random patterns. In other words, the Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these patterns are much more likely to happen by chance. The seismic frequency textures for whole Greece and for the sub-zones suggest long memory, however, only the texture for the Hellenic Arc zone (MS ≥ 5.0) and that for whole Greece (MS ≥ 4.0) approach demonstrable non-random patterns. Except for these, other patterns happen by chance. 相似文献
15.
Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (MW = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (MW = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (MW = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ MW ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events. 相似文献
16.
Ch. U. Kim V. I. Mikhailov R. S. Sen Ye. P. Semenova 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2009,3(5):412-423
A catalogue of aftershocks of the 2007 Nevelsk earthquake (M
w = 6.2) was prepared on the basis of the data from the local network of digital seismic stations established on the southern
part of Sakhalin Island. The parameters of the aftershock hypocenters were determined using the method of the seismic wave
travel time inversion. The errors in the determination of the coordinates of the seismic events were analyzed. The particularities
of the spatiotemporal distribution of the aftershocks in the source zone of the earthquake were established. It was shown
that a strong aftershock was a subsource earthquake with its own source zone. This explains the disagreement between the energetic
characteristics and the size of the aftershock zone of the Nevelsk earthquake. 相似文献
17.
Valry Ferber Jean-Claude Auriol Yu-Jun Cui Jean-Pierre Magnan 《Engineering Geology》2009,104(3-4):200-210
We conducted a study of the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for Turkey and the adjacent areas, applying the maximum likelihood method. The procedure allows for the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two. By using this method, we can estimate the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude Mˆmax, the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known bˆ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. These three parameters are determined simultaneously using an iterative scheme. The uncertainty in the determination of the magnitudes was also taken into consideration. The return periods (RP) of earthquakes with a magnitude M ≥ m are also evaluated. The whole examined area is divided into 24 seismic regions based on their seismotectonic regime. The homogeneity of the magnitudes is an essential factor in such studies. In order to achieve homogeneity of the magnitudes, formulas that convert any magnitude to an MS-surface scale are developed. New completeness cutoffs and their corresponding time intervals are also assessed for each of the 24 seismic regions. Each of the obtained parameters is distributed into its respective seismic region, allowing for an analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and a representation of their regional variation on a map. The earthquake hazard level is also calculated as a function of the form Θ = (Mˆmax,RP6.0), and a relative hazard scale (defined as the index K) is defined for each seismic region. The investigated regions are then classified into five groups using these parameters. This classification is useful for theoretical and practical reasons and provides a picture of quantitative seismicity. An attempt is then made to relate these values to the local tectonics. 相似文献
18.
Late-Quaternary Slip Rate and Seismic Activity of the Xianshuihe Fault Zone in Southwest China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
The Xianshuihe fault zone is a seismo-genetic fault zone of left-lateral slip in Southwest China. Since 1725, a total of 59 Ms ≥ 5.0 earthquakes have occurred along this fault zone, including 18 Ms 6.0–6.9 and eight Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes. The seismic risk of the Xianshuihe fault zone is a large and realistic threat to the western Sichuan economic corridor. Based on previous studies, we carried out field geological survey and remote sensing interpretation in the fault zone. In addition, geophysical surveys, trenching and age-dating were conducted in the key parts to better understand the geometry, spatial distribution and activity of the fault zone. We infer to divide the fault zone into two parts: the northwest part and the southeast part, with total eight segments. Their Late Quaternary slip rates vary in a range of 11.5 mm/a –(3±1) mm/a. The seismic activities of the Xianshuihe fault zone are frequent and strong, periodical, and reoccurred. Combining the spatial and temporal distribution of the historical earthquakes, the seismic hazard of the Xianshuihe fault zone has been predicted by using the relationship between magnitude and frequency of earthquakes caused by different fault segments. The prediction results show that the segment between Daofu and Qianning has a possibility of Ms ≥ 7.0 earthquakes, while the segment between Shimian and Luding is likely to have earthquakes of about Ms 7.0. It is suggested to establish a GPS or In SAR-based real-time monitoring network of surface displacement to cover the Xianshuihe fault zone, and an early warning system of earthquakes and post seismic geohazards to cover the major residential areas. 相似文献
19.
Constraints on the location and mechanism of the 1511 Western-Slovenia earthquake from active tectonics and modeling of macroseismic data 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
The 1511 Western Slovenia earthquake (M = 6.9) is the largest event occurred so far in the region of the Alps–Dinarides junction. Though it strongly influences the regional seismic hazard assessment, the epicenter and mechanism are still under debate. The complexity of the active tectonics of the Alps–Dinarides junction is reflected by the presence of both compressional and transpressional deformations. This complexity is witnessed by the recent occurrence of three main earthquake sequences, the 1976 Friuli thrust faulting events, the 1998 Bovec–Krn Mountain and the 2004 Kobarid strike-slip events. The epicenters of the 1998 and 2004 strike-slip earthquakes (Ms = 5.7 and Ms = 4.9, respectively) lie only 50 km far from the 1976 thrust earthquake (Ms = 6.5).We use the available macroseismic data and recent active tectonics studies, to assess a possible epicenter and mechanism for the 1511 earthquake and causative fault. According with previous works reported in the literature, we analyze both a two-and a single-event case, defining several input fault models. We compute synthetic seismograms up to 1 Hz in an extended-source approximation, testing different rupture propagations and applying a uniform seismic moment distribution on the fault segments. We extract the maximum horizontal velocities from the synthetics and we convert them into intensities by means of an empirical relation. A rounded-to-integer misfit between observed and computed intensities is performed, considering both a minimized and a maximized databases, built to avoid the use of half-degree macroseismic intensity data points. Our results are consistent with a 6.9 magnitude single event rupturing 50 km of the Idrija right-lateral strike-slip fault with bilateral rupture propagation. 相似文献
20.
S. M. Saprygin 《Russian Journal of Pacific Geology》2008,2(2):158-164
Detailed seismic zoning of Sakhalin based on seismological, tectonic, geomorphological, hydrogeological, and other data is discussed. It is shown that strong crustal earthquakes occurred at the boundary between the Eurasian and Okhotsk plates and their recurrence in Central Sakhalin is equal to the duration of the tectonic cycle (75 years). This boundary in North Sakhalin is marked by the Upper-Piltun fault, which was the epicenter of the 1995 Neftegorsk earthquake with an intensity of 9. The analysis of paleosoils in the fault zone showed that such events repeat with an interval of 400 years. The development of large oil and gas reservoirs on the Sakhalin shelf will be accompanied by intensification of the seismicity, which can reach a magnitude of M = 6.0–6.5 in the Lunskoye field. 相似文献