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1.
Mekonnen A. Degefu Woldeamlak Bewket 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2015,97(2):395-414
The objective of this paper is to evaluate trends and spatial patterns of drought incidence across the Omo‐Ghibe River Basin using monthly rainfall data from eight stations for the period 1972–2007. It also aims to estimate the probability of drought episodes for a 100‐year period. Drought indices were generated using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) computed at 3‐, 6‐, 12‐ and 24‐month time‐steps for three intensity classes: moderate, severe and extreme drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to detect temporal changes. The results show complex spatial patterns on the frequency and magnitude of drought events across the study area for all timescales and intensity classes. However, the total number of drought events for the three intensity classes for all timescales were larger in the southern lowlands, where there exists a serious water scarcity for the rain‐fed pastoral system, than in the northeastern part (around Wolaita Sodo area). In contrast to this, the longest and most extreme (SPI < ?4.0) drought events for all timescales were observed at Wolaita Sodo station. In a 100‐year period one could expect 57–69 drought events with 3 months' duration, 19–34 events with 6 months' duration, 9–16 events with 12 months' duration and 5–9 events with 24 months' duration. The SPI values show negative rainfall anomalies in the 1980s while positive anomalies have occurred in the 1990s and 2000s, which implies tendency towards decreasing drought events. The Mann–Kendall's trend test for the 12‐ and 24‐month timescales and for seasonal events also confirms this general trend. 相似文献
2.
利用MODIS/EVI数据分析干旱对西南地区植被的影响(英文) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
2009年9月至2010年3月我国西南地区出现了有气象记录以来最严重的干旱,给当地的自然环境和生产、生活带来严重影响。本文利用多年MODIS/EVI数据求取距平植被指数来反映干旱对西南地区植被的影响。在此基础上,分析了西南地区植被受旱的时空格局及其可能影响因素。结果表明,我国西南地区植被受干旱影响的范围很大,超过地区总面积的50%,植被受旱程度时空差异显著。这种显著的差异除了受降水等气象因素影响外,还与不同植被类型对干旱的响应差异有很大关系。在西南地区三种主要的植被类型中,作物是最易受干旱影响的植被类型,草地次之,林地的抗旱能力最强。此外,植被干旱的空间分布与气象干旱也存在很大的差异,进一步证明了降水以外的其他因素对干旱程度的调节作用。研究证明与气象干旱指数相比,植被指数更能反映干旱的实际情况。但在使用植被指数衡量干旱影响时也要考虑到植被指数本身的局限性。 相似文献
3.
4.
Kenneth C. Dagel 《The Professional geographer》1997,49(2):192-202
Drought exacts a heavy toll of agricultural productivity, yet it has been largely defined as a one–dimensional natural hazard. This paper explores an understanding and defining of drought based on the perception of ranchers in the marginal physical enviornment of western South Dakota. Analysis of interview data reveals at least four separate dimensions of drought: (1) when a percentage of normal rainfall is recieved, (2) when ranch operation is affected, (3) when a definite amount of rainfall is recieved, and (4) the timeliness of rainfall. The incorporation of perception–based data with site–specific drought severity indices, such as the Palmer Index, can provide a more complete characterization of a hazard affecting the productivity and sustainability of semiarid enviornments worldwide. 相似文献
5.
Drought severity is conventionally assessed by drought indices. Several drought indices with varying complexity have been used in many geographical areas. Recently, a powerful drought index, the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), is gaining wide acceptance mainly in the arid and semiarid climatic regions. Since RDI is based both on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), it is interesting to assess the effect of the PET calculation method on the drought severity characterisation obtained by RDI. This paper compares the results of RDI for various reference periods using some popular empirical PET methods with minimum data requirements. The selected methods are: Hargreaves, Thornthwaite, Blaney–Criddle and FAO Penman–Monteith (only temperature). The FAO Penman–Monteith method is used as reference method. The data used are from meteorological stations in Greece representing the mountainous and the coastal Mediterranean climatic conditions. No significant influence on RDI was detected by using the selected PET methods. However, the Hargreaves and FAO P–M (only T) methods performed relatively better. This supports the opinion that RDI is a robust drought index, not dependent upon the PET calculation method. 相似文献
6.
《The Professional geographer》2013,65(2):192-202
Drought exacts a heavy toll of agricultural productivity, yet it has been largely defined as a one–dimensional natural hazard. This paper explores an understanding and defining of drought based on the perception of ranchers in the marginal physical enviornment of western South Dakota. Analysis of interview data reveals at least four separate dimensions of drought: (1) when a percentage of normal rainfall is recieved, (2) when ranch operation is affected, (3) when a definite amount of rainfall is recieved, and (4) the timeliness of rainfall. The incorporation of perception–based data with site–specific drought severity indices, such as the Palmer Index, can provide a more complete characterization of a hazard affecting the productivity and sustainability of semiarid enviornments worldwide. 相似文献
7.
几种干旱评估指标在宁夏的应用对比分析 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
简要分析了几种干旱评估指标（Pa、K、SPI、PDSI和CI）与实况的等级差异;重点对比分析了Pa、K指数和SPI指数的干旱频率、干旱等级一致率、空漏评估率等与干旱实况的差异。结果表明,Pa、SPI指数和PDSI指数的评估效果接近;CI指数的评估效果与K指数接近。大部分年份Pa、K指数和SPI指数的等级较实况偏低,K指数更接近实际等级;大部分地区K指数较Pa和SPI指数反映的干旱频率高,K指数放大了干旱频率,尤其放大了中旱频率,Pa和SPI指数明显缩小了干旱频率;K指数的绝对一致率和相对一致率均高于Pa和SPI指数,大部分出现干旱的年份,Ｋ指数都能体现出来;Pa和SPI指数各等级的一致率差异不大。同时,K指数的空评估率较Pa和SPI指数高,漏评估率最低,其空、漏评估率之和最小,而且春旱小于其他3个季节的干旱。综合分析,K指数和CI综合干旱指数评估效果较好,但需进一步改进以适宜宁夏应用。 相似文献
8.
宁夏中南部地区干旱变化趋势分析 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
采用国家最新发布的综合气象干旱指数,详细分析了宁夏中南部地区干旱发生频率、日数和强度的变化趋势。发现宁夏中南部地区春、夏季干旱变化趋势基本相似,而与秋季干旱变化趋势基本相反。20世纪60年代至80、90年代,宁夏中南部地区春、夏季干旱总体呈弱减轻趋势,而秋季干旱呈非常显著的加剧趋势,80、90年代秋季干旱强度较60年代增强了两倍多;进入21世纪以来,春、夏季干旱显著加剧,中部干旱带春、夏季干旱、南部山区夏季干旱强度较20世纪90年代平均增加了约1~2倍,而秋季干旱出现了明显减弱的新趋势。随着春、夏季干旱加剧,对农林牧业\,生态环境、人畜饮水的影响越来越严重,旱灾造成的损失也在不断增大,应引起高度重视。最后提出了应对干旱加剧的措施建议。 相似文献
9.
Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards affecting agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems, and society. The negative societal consequences of drought include severe economic losses, famine, epidemics, and land degradation. However, few studies have analyzed the complexity of drought characteristics, both at multiple time scales and with variations in evapotranspiration. In this study, drought occurrences were quantified using a new drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on observed data of monthly mean temperature and precipitation from 1961 to 2013 in Henan province, central China. Based on the SPEI values of each weather station in the study, the frequency and severity of meteorological droughts were computed, and the monthly, seasonal, and annual drought frequency and intensity over a 53-year period were analyzed. The spatial and temporal evolution, intensity, and the primary causes of drought occurrence in Henan were revealed. The results showed that the SPEI values effectively reflected the spatial and temporal pattern of drought occurrence. As the time scale decreased, the amplitude of the SPEI increased and droughts became more frequent. Since 1961, drought has occurred at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales, and the occurrence of drought has increased. However, regional distribution has been uneven. The highest drought frequency, 35%, was observed in the Zhoukou region, while the lowest value, ~26%, was measured in central and western Henan. The most severe droughts occurred in the spring and summer, followed by autumn. Annually, wide-ranging droughts occurred in 1966–1968, 1998–2000, and 2011–2013. The drought intensity showed higher values in north and west Henan, and lower values in its east and south. The maximum drought intensity value was recorded in Anyang, and the minimum occurred in Zhumadian, at 22.18% and 16.60%, respectively. The factors with the greatest influence on drought occurrence are increasing temperatures, the Eurasian atmospheric circulation patterns, and the El Niño effect. 相似文献
10.
4种藤本月季抗旱性综合评价 总被引：9，自引：4，他引：5
通过盆栽试验,进行了4种藤本月季品种抗旱性的比较研究。在正常供水与水分胁迫条件下,分别测定与品种抗旱性有关的多项生理生化指标。把藤本月季各性状的抗旱系数作为衡量各单项抗旱能力大小的指标,用主成分分析将各单项抗旱系数综合成几个新的、相互独立的综合指标,再利用隶属函数求出综合指标的隶属值,较为准确地评价了各藤本月季品种的抗旱性。结果表明,藤本月季主要的抗旱途径为生理性抗旱,4种藤本月季品种抗旱性由强到弱为:欢腾、夏令营、西方大帝、莫扎特。评价结果为西北干旱地区特殊空间的园林绿化选择应用藤本月季品种提供了理论依据。 相似文献
11.
气候变暖背景下中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间及其南北差异性 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
在全球气温日趋升高和极端降水增加的气候背景下,近年来中国干旱变化特征异常突出,新形势下需进一步深入认识干旱灾害影响机制。利用1960—2014年中国527个气象站逐日气温和降水量数据,选用改进的综合气象干旱指数（MCI）作为监测指标,详细分析了中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间变化特征及其南北差异性。结果表明：气候变暖背景下,中国干旱范围扩大、程度加剧、频次增加;干旱发生的范围发生了明显的转移,北方干旱加剧的同时,南方干旱明显加重,尤其是大旱范围明显增加。中国干旱范围主要在黄河流域以南和长江以北地区。干旱频次北方高于南方,东部高于西部,长江流域以北干旱频次较高。中国干旱持续时间较长,而且四季都有可能发生干旱。干旱不仅发生在干旱区和半干旱区,湿润和半湿润区域也常有干旱发生。不同年代、不同区域干旱发生的程度、持续时间和频次有一定的差异。中国20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初期干旱范围最广、持续时间最长,造成的损失最严重。中国干旱强度、频次和持续时间南北差异性显著。气候变暖后,中国干旱强度加重、范围扩大、频次增加和持续时间增加明显。 相似文献
12.
选择4种遥感干旱监测模型,与土壤相对湿度（RSM）和自校准帕默尔干旱指数（sc-PDSI）进行相关性分析,并探讨了研究区生长季干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明：作物缺水指数（CWSI）和植被供水指数（VSWI）更适合监测华北地区的土壤水分,在草原区和农区CWSI干旱监测较好,在森林区和荒漠区VSWI干旱监测效果较好;研究区干旱化趋势有所减缓,且2007—2011年为干旱到湿润的转折区间;干旱空间分布呈北部大于南部、西部大于东部的变化趋势,阿拉善高原的干旱最严重,而大兴安岭山脉基本无干旱发生;干旱整体上向好的趋势发展,尤其是鄂尔多斯南部、山西省、燕山山脉和华北地区-东北地区交界处的农区,且易旱区重心有向西移动的趋势,该成果可以为区域农业干旱监测提供一定的参考。 相似文献
13.
农业旱灾研究进展 总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12
商彦蕊 《地理与地理信息科学》2004,20(4):101-105
农业旱灾是我国发生范围最广、频率最高、灾情和影响最严重的灾害。为了全面地认识旱灾,有效地进行旱灾风险管理,减轻旱灾损失和影响,该文对干旱指标与监测、干旱影响、旱灾评估、旱灾区域分异规律、减灾管理等方面的国内外研究进展进行了综述。 相似文献
14.
干旱指标研究的进展与展望 总被引：67，自引：1，他引：66
对气象干旱指标、农业干旱指标、水文干旱指标和社会经济干旱指标4个方面的研究成果进行了较为全面的对比分析,并提出了干旱指标研究中仍存在的主要问题以及今后研究的重点与展望。干旱气候的影响具有持续时间长、范围广、灾害程度重的特点,而干旱指标是衡量干旱气候的标准。分析指出,按照大气、土壤、水文和作物干旱的相互关系及其因果关系,应该首先考虑大气干旱,而考虑大气干旱时,最好利用降水百分数或距平百分率,这样便于统一比较各个地区的干旱程度。其次,再根据不同的领域和对象,考虑土壤、农作物、牧业和水文干旱等。在研制干旱指标时,要注意要素的可收集性及其适时性,考虑主要要素和监测业务的可行性,干旱指标要简单、明了,可计算性强,以便于业务使用和推广。 相似文献
15.
利用中国东北地区84个气象站1961-2014年逐月气温、降水资料,采用标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）、气候倾向率及M-K统计检验方法,从不同时间尺度（年、季、月）探讨了东北地区干旱频率、干旱站次比和干旱强度的演变特征,研究了干旱指数与不同环流指数 （亚洲极涡面积指数IAPV、亚洲纬向环流指数IAZC、东亚槽位置指数IEAT、极地-欧亚遥相关型指数IPOL）的相关关系。结果表明：东北地区多年平均的干旱发生频率为26%～36%,不同等级干旱发生频次以重旱和特旱的增速最快。春、夏、秋三季干旱站次比和干旱强度都有所增强,其中秋旱变化最为显著,通过了0.95水平的显著性检验。从SPEI与各环流指数的相关来看,亚洲极涡面积指数与SPEI表现为全区一致的正相关关系,而其他3个指数与SPEI则表现出明显的反向变化。4个指数与SPEI的对应关系还存在明显的季节变化,其中亚洲极涡面积指数、亚洲纬向环流指数与SPEI在春、夏季的相关性更好,东亚槽位置指数、极地-欧亚遥相关型指数则是在秋、冬季与SPEI的相关性更显著。 相似文献
16.
中国干旱灾害评估与空间特征分析(英文) 总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14
Based on the monthly precipitation data for the period 1960-2008 from 616 rainfall stations and the phenology data of main grain crops,the spatial characteristics of drought hazard in China were investigated at a 10 km×10 km grid-cell scale using a GIS-based drought hazard assessment model,which was constructed by using 3-month Standard Pre-cipitation Index (SPI).Drought-prone areas and heavy drought centers were also identified in this study.The spatial distribution of drought hazard in China shows apparent east-west dif-ference,with the eastern part of China being far more hazardous than the western part.High hazard areas are common in the eastern and central parts of Inner Mongolian Plateau,the central part of Northeast China Plain,the northern part of Heilongjiang,the southeastern part of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the central and southern parts of Loess Plateau,the southern part of North China Plain,the northern and southern parts of Yangtze River Plain,and Yun-nan-Guizhou Plateau.Furthermore,obvious differences in drought hazard were found both within and between different agricultural zonings. 相似文献
17.
干旱指标在陕西省应用的敏感性分析 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
利用陕西省1961—2005年各气象站旬气象资料、33个农气旬报站土壤相对湿度及2001年6月13日NOAA-16极轨气象卫星资料,分析了降水距平百分率、Z指数、Palmer干旱指数、土壤相对湿度对干旱的发生、发展、变化的敏感性,描述干旱发生的范围、程度的差异,并将反映出的旱情与同时段用遥感监测得到的旱情进行比较。结果表明:降水距平百分率、Z指数对旱情的变化具有很高的敏感性,各干旱指标都能反应出区域内干旱的发生,但各指标反映出的干旱程度和范围不同;与同时段遥感监测得到的旱情相比,遥感监测的旱情更加细致,并与地表状况有关。干旱是一个累积过程,同时与影响对象有密切关系,使用干旱指标分析旱情时需要根据受旱对象选用不同的干旱指标,综合考虑前期的水分状况与旱情发生、发展有关的因素。 相似文献
18.
干旱是影响甘肃省河东地区农业生产的主要气象灾害之一。如何在众多的干旱遥感监测指数中选择适宜的指数是干旱遥感监测工作面临的主要问题。利用研究区30个农业气象站观测的不同深度土壤相对湿度和对应的MODIS数据,分析了7种典型干旱遥感监测指数(AVI、NDWI、VCI、PDI、MPDI、VSWI和MEI)的构建原理和模拟结果,并选择适宜的干旱遥感监测指数对2006年甘肃省河东地区干旱情况的时空分布做了动态监测。结果表明:7种干旱遥感监测指数均能反映研究区土壤湿度的时空变化特征;各干旱遥感监测指数对土壤水分监测的最佳深度为20 cm,其次为10 cm。从相关系数来看,PDI、MPDI指数对春季,VSWI、NDWI指数对夏季的土壤相对湿度有较好的监测结果;MEI指数对秋季土壤相对湿度模拟效果较差,其余指数对秋季模拟效果均较好;根据各指数与20 cm处土壤相对湿度的相关系数,结合各指数的构成原理,春季选择PDI和MEI,夏季选择VSWI和NDWI,秋季选择PDI和MPDI,分别对2006年甘肃省河东地区干旱情况进行监测。通过考虑各等级出现的频率,同时兼顾土壤相对湿度,评定各指数干旱等级。监测结果显示,庆阳市北部连续出现春旱、春末夏初旱、伏旱和秋旱,陇中北部和庆阳市北部旱情严重。 相似文献
19.
Xianfeng Liu Xiufang Zhu Yaozhong Pan Shuangshuang Li Yanxu Liu Yuqi Ma 《地理学报(英文版)》2016,26(6):750-767
In this paper, we compared the concept of agricultural drought and its relationship with other types of droughts and reviewed the progress of research on agricultural drought monitoring indices on the basis of station data and remote sensing. Applicability and limitations of different drought monitoring indices were also compared. Meanwhile, development history and the latest progress in agricultural drought monitoring were evaluated through statistics and document comparison, suggesting a transformation in agricultural drought monitoring from traditional single meteorological monitoring indices to meteorology and remote sensing-integrated monitoring indices. Finally, an analysis of current challenges in agricultural drought monitoring revealed future research prospects for agricultural drought monitoring, such as investigating the mechanism underlying agricultural drought, identifying factors that influence agricultural drought, developing multi-spatiotemporal scales models for agricultural drought monitoring, coupling qualitative and quantitative agricultural drought evaluation models, and improving the application levels of remote sensing data in agricultural drought monitoring. 相似文献
20.
华北不同地表覆盖类型区干旱演变特征 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
利用华北地区气象站点1960～2008年共49年的降水旬数据集逐旬计算1个月、3个月、12个月尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI)序列。采用SPI历史序列的多年滑动平均和滑动标准差方法,解析研究区及3种主要地表覆盖类型区(草原区、农田区、阔叶林带)干旱在整个时间序列上的演变周期和幅度。采用线性回归分析干旱的演变趋势和变化频度,并对趋势线进行预测。对比了3个子区域全年12个月份干旱演变特征的差异。结果表明:研究区干旱发生的频率和强度呈逐渐加重的趋势,且各月份干旱发展趋势有较大差异,夏季的6月、7月降水较历史时期增多,春旱(4月)、秋旱(9月和10月)加重趋势显著。草原区在整个历史时期的干旱变化趋势不如南部农作物区和中部阔叶林带明显。农作物区9月、10月两月份干旱加重的趋势最显著,说明黄淮海平原区的夏玉米将越来越受到秋旱的威胁,防旱抗旱形势重于冬小麦面临的春旱,冬小麦的秋种受干旱的影响将加重。 相似文献