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1.
Mode water is a distinct water mass characterized by a near vertical homogeneous layer or low potential vorticity, and is considered essential for understanding ocean climate variability. Based on the output of GFDL CM3, this study investigates the response of eastern subtropical mode water(ESTMW) in the North Pacific to two different single forcings: greenhouse gases(GHGs) and aerosol. Under GHG forcing, ESTMW is produced on lighter isopycnal surfaces and is decreased in volume. Under aerosol forcing, in sharp contrast, it is produced on denser isopycnal surfaces and is increased in volume.The main reason for the opposite response is because surface ocean-to-atmosphere latent heat flux change over the ESTMW formation region shoals the mixed layer and thus weakens the lateral induction under GHG forcing, but deepens the mixed layer and thus strengthens the lateral induction under aerosol forcing. In addition, local wind changes are also favorable to the opposite response of ESTMW production to GHG versus aerosol.  相似文献   

2.
Anthropogenic aerosols play an important role in the atmospheric energy balance. Anthropogenic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its accompanying shortwave radiative forcing (RF) are usually simulated by nu- merical models. Recently, with the development of space-borne instruments and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, it has become possible to estimate aerosol radiative forcing based on satellite observations. In this study, we have estimated shortwave direct radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosols over oceans in all-sky conditions by combining clouds and the Single Scanner Footprint data of the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES/SSF) experiment, which provide measurements of upward shortwave fluxes at the top of atmosphere, with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol and cloud products. We found that globally averaged aerosol radiative forcing over oceans in the clear-sky conditions and all-sky conditions were -1.03±0.48 W m-2 and -0.34 ±0.16 W m-2, respectively. Direct radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols shows large regional and seasonal variations. In some regions and in particular seasons, the magnitude of direct forcing by anthropogenic aerosols can be comparable to the forcing of greenhouse gases. However, it shows that aerosols caused the cooling effect, rather than warming effect from global scale, which is different from greenhouse gases.  相似文献   

3.
This study investigates the changes in January diurnal temperature range(DTR) in China during 1961-2000.The observed DTR changes during 1981-2000 relative to 1961-80 are first analyzed based on the daily temperature data at 546 weather stations.These observed DTR changes are classified into six cases depending on the changes in daily maximum and minimum temperatures,and then the occurrence frequency and magnitude of DTR change in each case are presented.Three transient simulations are then performed to understand the impact of greenhouse gases(GHGs) and aerosol direct forcing on DTR change:one without anthropogenic radiative forcing,one with anthropogenic GHGs,and another one with the combined forcing of GHGs and five species of anthropogenic aerosols.The predicted daily DTR changes during the years 1981-2000 are also classified into six cases and are compared with the observations.Results show that the previously proposed reason for DTR reduction,a stronger nocturnal warming than a daytime warming,explains only 19.8%of the observed DTR reduction days.DTR reductions are found to generally occur in northeastern China,coinciding with significant regional warming.The simulation with GHG forcing alone reproduces this type of DTR reduction with an occurrence frequency of 32.9%,which is larger than the observed value.Aerosol direct forcing reduces DTR mainly by daytime cooling.Consideration of aerosol cooling improves the simulation of occurrence frequencies of different types of DTR changes as compared to the simulation with GHGs alone,but it cannot improve the prediction of the magnitude of DTR changes.  相似文献   

4.
Previous observational studies have estimated anthropogenic aerosol direct radiative forcing over oceans without due consideration of cloudy-sky aerosols.However,when interaction between clouds and aerosols located below or above the cloud level is taken into account,the aerosol direct radiative forcing is larger by as much as 5 W m-2 in most mid-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere.  相似文献   

5.
This study investigates the potential influences of anthropogenic forcings and natural variability on the risk of summer extreme temperatures over China.We use three multi-thousand-member ensemble simulations with different forcings(with or without anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosol emissions) to evaluate the human impact,and with sea surface temperature patterns from three different years around the El Ni ?no–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) 2015/16 event(years 2014,2015 and 2016) to evaluate the impact of natural variability.A generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution is used to fit the ensemble results.Based on these model results,we find that,during the peak of ENSO(2015),daytime extreme temperatures are smaller over the central China region compared to a normal year(2014).During 2016,the risk of nighttime extreme temperatures is largely increased over the eastern coastal region.Both anomalies are of the same magnitude as the anthropogenic influence.Thus,ENSO can amplify or counterbalance(at a regional and annual scale) anthropogenic effects on extreme summer temperatures over China.Changes are mainly due to changes in the GEV location parameter.Thus,anomalies are due to a shift in the distributions and not to a change in temperature variability.  相似文献   

6.
This study investigated the drivers and physical processes for the abrupt decadal summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes that occurred over Northeast Asia in the mid-1990 s. Observations indicate an abrupt increase in summer mean surface air temperature(SAT) over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s. Accompanying this abrupt surface warming, significant changes in some temperature extremes, characterized by increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), annual hottest day temperature(TXx), and annual warmest night temperature(TNx) were observed. There were also increases in the frequency of summer days(SU) and tropical nights(TR).Atmospheric general circulation model experiments forced by changes in sea surface temperature(SST)/ sea ice extent(SIE),anthropogenic greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations, and anthropogenic aerosol(AA) forcing, relative to the period 1964–93, reproduced the general patterns of observed summer mean SAT changes and associated changes in temperature extremes,although the abrupt decrease in precipitation since the mid-1990 s was not simulated. Additional model experiments with different forcings indicated that changes in SST/SIE explained 76% of the area-averaged summer mean surface warming signal over Northeast Asia, while the direct impact of changes in GHG and AA explained the remaining 24% of the surface warming signal. Analysis of physical processes indicated that the direct impact of the changes in AA(through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions), mainly related to the reduction of AA precursor emissions over Europe, played a dominant role in the increase in TXx and a similarly important role as SST/SIE changes in the increase in the frequency of SU over Northeast Asia via AA-induced coupled atmosphere–land surface and cloud feedbacks, rather than through a direct impact of AA changes on cloud condensation nuclei. The modelling results also imply that the abrupt summer surface warming and increases in hot temperature extremes over Northeast Asia since the mid-1990 s will probably sustain in the next few decades as GHG concentrations continue to increase and AA precursor emissions over both North America and Europe continue to decrease.  相似文献   

7.
In this study,a general circulation model coupled with a gas-phase module and an aerosol chemistry module was employed to investigate the impacts of anthropogenic emission sectors on aerosol direct radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere(TOA)in the present-day climate.The predictions were based on the emission inventories developed in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)Fifth Assessment Report(AR5).Six emission sectors—agriculture,open biomass burning,domestic activities,industry,energy generation,and transport—were considered,with a special focus on nitrate aerosol that shows large uncertainties in current models.The results show that the energy sector accounts for the largest contribution(-222 mW m 2)to global aerosol radiative forcing,with substantial negative forcing from sulfate.Inclusion of nitrate results in the transport sector yielding a global nitrate radiative forcing of-92 mW m-2and an internally mixed aerosol radiative forcing of -85 mW m-2,which is opposite to the positive radiative forcing predicted in the past,indicating that the transport emissions could not be a potential control target to counteract climate warming as expected before.The maximum change in nitrate burden is found to be associated with agricultural emissions,which accounts for about75%of global ammonia gas(NH3)emissions.Agricultural emissions account for global nitrate radiative forcing of -186 mW m-2and internally mixed aerosols direct radiative forcing of -149 mW m-2.Such agricultural radiative forcing exceeds the radiative forcing of the industrial sector and is responsible for a large portion of negative radiative forcing over the Northern Hemisphere.  相似文献   

8.
The authors used a high-resolution regional climate model(RegCM3) coupled with a chemistry/aerosol module to simulate East Asian climate in 2006 and to test the climatic impacts of aerosols on regionalscale climate.The direct radiative forcing and climatic effects of aerosols(dust,sulfate,black carbon,and organic carbon) were discussed.The results indicated that aerosols generally produced negative radiative forcing at the top-of-the-atmosphere(TOA) over most areas of East Asia.The radiative forcing induced by aerosols exhibited significant seasonal and regional variations,with the strongest forcing occurring in summer.The aerosol feedbacks on surface air temperature and precipitation were clear.Surface cooling dominated features over the East Asian continental areas,which varied in the approximate range of-0.5 to-2°C with the maximum up to-3-C in summer over the deserts of West China.The aerosols induced complicated variations of precipitation.Except in summer,the rainfall generally varied in the range of-1 to 1 mm d-1 over most areas of China.  相似文献   

9.
A regional climate model coupled with an aerosol model is employed to numerically simulate the direct climate effects of the anthropogenic aerosol emitted in South Asia and China in the East Asian summer monsoon during 1988 to 2009. Based on the data of the numerical simulation, composite analysis and correlation analysis are used to make diagnostic study of climate dynamics. Results show that the month of maximum emission of the mean column burden of the anthropogenic aerosol in the main emission areas of South Asia is opposite in phase to that in China. Summer is the season of maximum emission amount in China, but the emission amounts are more in South Asia in spring and winter. On the whole, the mean column burden of the anthropogenic aerosol in China is relatively high compared with that in South Asia. The trend of distribution of aerosol is SW-NE in China, and Sichuan Basin is the emission center of aerosol. The effect of negative short wave radiative forcing alters the gradient of pressure between land and sea, weakening the development of East Asian summer monsoon over the northern part of Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin. We also discuss the feedback effect of East-Asian summer monsoon which is changed by the anthropogenic aerosol on the concentration and distribution of aerosol in China.  相似文献   

10.
The spatial distributions and interannual variations of aerosol concentrations,aerosol optical depth(AOD) ,aerosol direct radiative forcings,and their responses to heterogeneous reactions on dust surfaces over East Asia in March 2006-10 were investigated by utilizing a regional coupled climate-chemistry/aerosol model. Anthropogenic aerosol concentrations(inorganic+carbonaceous) were higher in March 2006 and 2008,whereas soil dust reached its highest levels in March 2006 and 2010,resulting in stronger aerosol radiative forcings in these periods.The domain and five-year(2006-10) monthly mean concentrations of anthropogenic and dust aerosols,AOD,and radiative forcings at the surface(SURF) and at the top of the atmosphere(TOA) in March were 2.4μg m-3,13.1μg m-3,0.18,-19.0 W m-2,and-7.4 W m-2,respectively.Heterogeneous reactions led to an increase of total inorganic aerosol concentration;however,the ambient inorganic aerosol concentration decreased,resulting in a smaller AOD and weaker aerosol radiative forcings.In March 2006 and 2010,the changes in ambient inorganic aerosols,AOD,and aerosol radiative forcings were more evident.In terms of the domain and five-year averages,the total inorganic aerosol concentrations increased by 13.7%(0.17μg m-3) due to heterogeneous reactions,but the ambient inorganic aerosol concentrations were reduced by 10.5%(0.13μg m-3) .As a result,the changes in AOD,SURF and TOA radiative forcings were estimated to be-3.9%(-0.007) ,-1.7%(0.34 W m-2) ,and-4.3%(0.34 W m-2) ,respectively,in March over East Asia.  相似文献   

11.
The aerosol optical properties and direct radiative forcing over the Mu Us desert of northern China, acquired through a CE318 sunphotometer of the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), are analyzed. The seasonal variations in the aerosol optical properties are examined. The effect of meteorological elements (pressure, temperature, water vapor pressure, relative humidity and wind speed) on the aerosol optical properties is also studied. Then, the sources and optical properties under two different cases, a dust event and a pollution event, are compared. The results show that the high aerosol optical depth (AOD) found in Yulin was mostly attributed to the occurrence of dust events in spring from the Mu Us desert and deserts of West China and Mongolia, as well as the impacts of anthropogenic pollutant particles from the middle part of China in the other seasons. The seasonal variation and the probability distribution of the radiative forcing and the radiative forcing efficiency at the surface and the top of the atmosphere are analyzed and regressed using the linear and Gaussian regression methods.  相似文献   

12.
In this study, the contributions from changes in man-made greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic aerosols (AA), and land use (LU), as well as natural solar and volcanic (NAT) forcing changes, to observed changes in surface air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) over global land, especially over arid-semiarid areas, during 1946–2005 are quantified using observations and climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that the anthropogenic (ANT) forcings dominate the ubiquitous surface warming seen in observations and lead to slight increases in precipitation over most land areas, while the NAT forcing leads to small cooling over land. GHG increases are the primary factor responsible for the anthropogenic climate change, while the AA forcing offsets a large part of the GHG-induced warming and P changes. The LU forcing generally contributes little to the T and P changes from 1946 to 2005 over most land areas. Unlike the consistent temperature changes among most model simulations, precipitation changes display a large spread among the models and are incomparable with the observations in spatial distributions and magnitude, mainly due to its large internal variability that varies among individual model runs. Using an optimal fingerprinting method, we find that the observed warming over land during 1946–2005 can be largely attributed to the ANT forcings, and the combination of the ANT and NAT forcings can explain about 85~95% of the observed warming trend over global land as well as over most arid-semiarid regions such as Northern China. However, the anthropogenic influences on precipitation over the past 60 years are generally undetectable over most land areas, including most arid-semiarid regions. This indicates that internal variability is still larger than the forced change for land precipitation.  相似文献   

13.
An analytic solution of an energy balance model (EBM) is presented which can beused as a recursive filter for time series analysis. It is shown that the EBM can reproduce the solution of a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) experiment. Contrary to the AOGCM, the EBM easily allows for variations in climate sensitivity to satisfy the full range of uncertainty concerned with this parameter. The recursive filter is applied to two natural and two anthropogenic forcing mechanisms which are expressed in terms of heating rate anomaly time series: volcanism, solar activity, greenhouse gases (GHG), and anthropogenic tropospheric aerosols. Thus, we obtain modelled global mean temperature variations as a response to the different forcings and with respect to the uncertainty in the forcing approximations and climate sensitivity. In addition, it is shown that the observed (ENSO-corrected) global mean temperature time series within the period from 1866 to 1997 can be explained by the external forcings which have been considered and an additional white noise forcing. In this way we are able to separate different signals and compare them. As a result, global anthropogenic climate change due to GHG forcing can be detected at a high level of significance without considering spatial patterns of climate change but including natural forcing, which is usually not done. Furthermore, it is shown that solar forcing alone does not lead to significantclimate change, whereas solar and volcanic forcing together lead to a significant natural climate change signal. Anthropogenic climate change due to GHG forcing may partly be masked by anthropogenic aerosol cooling.  相似文献   

14.
为减少不同气候模式评估气溶胶气候效应的差异,第六次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)直接给定了人为气溶胶强迫数据。因此,有必要基于此强迫数据重新评估气溶胶气候效应。本研究首先将CMIP6给出的描述人为气溶胶强迫的模块引入南京信息工程大学(Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,NUIST)的地球系统模式(The NUIST Earth System Model,NESM)。之后,利用NESM模式评估地球辐射收支平衡对此人为气溶胶强迫的响应,并分析模式模拟结果的不确定性。评估给出的人为气溶胶有效辐射强迫为-0. 45(±0. 28) W·m~(-2)。其中,气溶胶直接辐射效应为-0. 34(±0. 01) W·m~(-2),与第二次气溶胶比较计划(The second phase of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and M odels,Aero ComⅡ)的评估结果基本一致;气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响(包括半直接效应和间接效应)为-0. 10(±0. 30) W·m~(-2),明显受到模式内部变率的干扰,具有较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

15.
中国地区气溶胶的辐射强迫及其气候响应试验   总被引：15，自引：3，他引：12  
胡荣明  石广玉 《大气科学》1998,22(6):917-525
根据国内测定的排放因子数据和国家、部委及各省市统计年鉴公布的排放源数据,得到的中国大陆的1°×1°网格精度的SO2的排放分布,计算了中国地区人为扰动气溶胶的辐射强迫。应用近期开发的二维能量平衡模式计算了由该种气溶胶所引起的中国地区地面温度变化。模式结果表明,最大辐射强迫和最大地面温度变化都集中在中国的沿海和四川地区。最大辐射强迫达3 W/m2。  相似文献   

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