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1.
This research presents a precise evaluation of the Tien Shan glacier's recession based on data of geodetic surveys 1861–1869, aerial photographs from 1943, 1963, 1977, 1981, 1:25,000 scale topographic maps, SRTM, and ASTER data from 2000/2003 for the Akshiirak glacierized massif in the central Tien Shan with 178 glaciers covering 317.6 km2, and for the Ala Archa glacier basin in the northern Tien Shan with 48 glaciers covering 36.31 km2.The Tien Shan glaciers retreated as much as 3 km from the 1860s to 2003. From 1943 to 1977, Akshiirak and Ala Archa shrunk 4.2% and 5.1% respectively, and from 1977 to 2003 the area shrunk 8.6% and 10.6%, respectively. The volume of the Akshiirak glaciers was reduced by 3.566 km3 from 1943 to 1977 and 6.147 km3 from 1977 to 2000.The total reduction of the Tien Shan glacier is 14.2% during the last 60 yr. The northern and central Tien Shan have not experienced a significant increase of precipitation during the last 100 yr, but they have experienced an increase in summer air temperatures, especially observable since the 1970s, which caused an acceleration of the Tien Shan glaciers recession.  相似文献   

2.
This study simulates water resources in the Tien Shan alpine basins to forecast how global and regional climate changes would affect river runoff. The model employed annual mean values for the major characteristics of the water cycle: annual air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and river runoff. The simulation was based on 304 hydro-meteorological stations, 23 precipitation sites, 328 high altitudinal points with glaciological measurements, 123 stream-gauges, and 54 evaporation sites, and it took into account topography. The findings were simulated over Tien Shan relief using a 1:500,000 scale 100 m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model. An applicable GIS-based distributed River Runoff Model was implemented in regional conditions and tested in the Tien Shan basins. The annual evapotranspiration exceeds the river runoff in the Tien Shan watersheds particularly up to 3700 m. Hypothetical climate-change scenarios in the Tien Shan predict that by 2100 river runoff will increase by 1.047 times with an increase in air temperature averaging 3 °C and an increase in precipitation averaging 1.2 times the current levels. Change in precipitation, rather than temperature, is the main parameter determining river runoff in the Tien Shan. The maximum ratio for predicted river runoff could reach up to 2.2 and the minimum is predicted to be 0.55 times current levels. This possibly dramatic change in river runoff indicates on non-linear system response caused mainly by the non-linear response of evapotranspiration from air temperature and precipitation changes. In the frame of forecasted possible climate change scenarios the probability of river runoff growth amounts 83–87% and probability of this decline is 17–13% by 2100 in the Tien Shan River basins.  相似文献   

3.
Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 14C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 106 m3 w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.  相似文献   

4.
Fluctuations of glaciers during the 20th century in Garibaldi Provincial Park, in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia, were reconstructed from historical documents, aerial photographs, and fieldwork. Over 505 km2, or 26%, of the park, was covered by glacier ice at the beginning of the 18th century. Ice cover decreased to 297 km2 by 1987–1988 and to 245 km2 (49% of the early 18th century value) by 2005. Glacier recession was greatest between the 1920s and 1950s, with typical frontal retreat rates of 30 m/a. Many glaciers advanced between the 1960s and 1970s, but all glaciers retreated over the last 20 years. Times of glacier recession coincide with warm and relatively dry periods, whereas advances occurred during relatively cold periods. Rapid recession between 1925 and 1946, and since 1977, coincided with the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas glaciers advanced during its negative phase (1890–1924 and 1947–1976). The record of 20th century glacier fluctuations in Garibaldi Park is similar to that in southern Europe, South America, and New Zealand, suggesting a common, global climatic cause. We conclude that global temperature change in the 20th century explains much of the behaviour of glaciers in Garibaldi Park and elsewhere.  相似文献   

5.
Cryospheric change in China   总被引：16，自引：0，他引：16  
This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km2. The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km3 and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 109 m3. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 106 km2 and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 109 m3 yr− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 106 km2. The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km3. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.  相似文献   

6.
The Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) forms an isolated ice cap on the Península Muñoz Gamero (PMG) located 200 km to the south of the Southern Patagonia Icefield (SPI). We present a glacier inventory of the GCN made up by 27 drainage basins (in total 199.5 km2) and other small cirque and valley glaciers of the southern part of PMG (in total 53 km2). The glacier inventory is based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and ortho-photos. Contour lines from maps, relief information derived from Landsat TM satellite imagery from 1986 and 2002 and stereoscopic data from aerial photos were combined in a knowledge-based scheme to obtain a DEM of the area. A digital ortho-photo map based on aerial photos from 1998 and several ortho-photos based on aerial photos from 1942 and 1984 could be produced from the initial DEM. A geographical information system (GIS) served to outline the extent of the present glaciation. All major glaciers of the GCN show a significant glacier retreat during the last 60 yr. Some of the outlet glaciers lost more than 20% of their total area during this period. Overall glacier retreat amounts to 2.8% of glacier length per decade and the glacier area loss is 2.4% per decade in the period from 1942 to 2002. We hypothesise that GCN glaciers may have reacted faster and more synchronously with the observed warming trend during recent decades when compared with the SPI.  相似文献   

7.
Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.  相似文献   

8.
An estimate of the glacier ice volume in the Swiss Alps   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Changes in glacier volume are important for questions linked to sea-level rise, water resource management, and tourism industry. With the ongoing climate warming, the retreat of mountain glaciers is a major concern. Predictions of glacier changes, necessarily need the present ice volume as initial condition, and for transient modelling, the ice thickness distribution has to be known. In this paper, a method based on mass conservation and principles of ice flow dynamics is applied to 62 glaciers located in the Swiss Alps for estimating their ice thickness distribution. All available direct ice thickness measurements are integrated. The ice volumes are referenced to the year 1999 by means of a mass balance time series. The results are used to calibrate a volume–area scaling relation, and the coefficients obtained show good agreement with values reported in the literature. We estimate the total ice volume present in the Swiss Alps in the year 1999 to be 74 ± 9 km3. About 12% of this volume was lost between 1999 and 2008, whereas the extraordinarily warm summer 2003 caused a volume loss of about 3.5%.  相似文献   

9.
The heat needed to melt snow over the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands for 10-day period (TDP) was estimated. Melting curves and a map of snowmelt duration were obtained through the long-term data from 79 stations in the Tien Shan mountains and 20 stations in the Japanese Islands. At high elevations in the mountains, about 40% of the snow melts during penultimate 10 days of snow cover. In the Japanese Islands, about 80% of the snow melts during the last 20 days of snow cover. Over the mountains, 0.13×104 MJ m2 year−1 is needed to melt snow in the northern and western Tien Shan where maximum snow accumulation occurred. The volume of air cooled 10 °C by snowmelt amounted to 4.4×106 km3 year−1 over the Tien Shan mountains and 3×106 km3 year−1 over the Japanese Islands. The most significant impact of snowmelt on air temperature was observed at an elevation of 2500 m in the western and northern Tien Shan. Air that was cooled 10 °C could reach an elevation of 2.1 km day−1. Over the Japanese Islands, energy losses from snowmelt amounted to 0.26×1014 MJ year−1 and the maximum occurred over Honshu Island. The heat loss from snowmelt in the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands amounted to about 2/3 of heat loss in the Eurasian continental plains.  相似文献   

10.
Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
The general features of alpine permafrost such as spatial distribution, temperatures, ice content, permafrost and active-layer thickness within the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia are described. The modern thermal state of permafrost reflects climatic processes during the twentieth century when the average rise in mean annual air temperature was 0.006–0.032 °C/yr for the different parts of the Tien Shan. Geothermal observations during the last 30 yr indicate an increase in permafrost temperatures from 0.3 °C up to 0.6 °C. At the same time, the average active-layer thickness increased by 23% in comparison to the early 1970s. The long-term records of air temperature and snow cover from the Tien Shan's high-mountain weather stations allow reconstruction of the thermal state of permafrost dynamics during the last century. The modeling estimation shows that the altitudinal lower boundary of permafrost distribution has shifted by about 150–200 m upward during the twentieth century. During the same period, the area of permafrost distribution within two river basins in the Northern Tien Shan decreased approximately by 18%. Both geothermal observations and modeling indicate more favorable conditions for permafrost occurrences and preservation in the coarse blocky material, where the ice-rich permafrost could still be stable even when the mean annual air temperatures exceeds 0 °C.  相似文献   

11.
This paper evaluates the suitability of readily available elevation data derived from recent sensors – the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) – for glaciological applications. The study area is Nevado Coropuna (6426 m), situated in Cordillera Ampato of Southern Peru. The glaciated area was 82.6 km2 in 1962, based on aerial photography. We estimate the glacier area to be ca. 60.8 km2 in 2000, based on analysis of the ASTER L1B scene.We used two 1:50,000 topographic maps constructed from 1955 aerial photography to create a digital elevation model with 30 m resolution, which we used as a reference dataset. Of the various interpolation techniques examined, the TOPOGRID algorithm was found to be superior to other techniques, and yielded a DEM with a vertical accuracy of ± 14.7 m. The 1955 DEM was compared to the SRTM DEM (2000) and ASTER DEM (2001) on a cell-by-cell basis. Steps included: validating the DEM's against field GPS survey points on rock areas; visualization techniques such as shaded relief and contour maps; quantifying errors (bias) in each DEM; correlating vertical differences between various DEM's with topographic characteristics (elevation, slope and aspect) and subtracting DEM elevations on a cell-by-cell basis.The RMS error of the SRTM DEM with respect to GPS points on non-glaciated areas was 23 m. The ASTER DEM had a RMS error of 61 m with respect to GPS points and displayed 200–300 m horizontal offsets and elevation ‘spikes’ on the glaciated area when compared to the DEM from topographic data.Cell-by-cell comparison of SRTM and ASTER-derived elevations with topographic data showed ablation at the toes of the glaciers (− 25 m to − 75 m surface lowering) and an apparent thickening at the summits. The mean altitude difference on glaciated area (SRTM minus topographic DEM) was − 5 m, pointing towards a lowering of the glacier surface during the period 1955–2000. Spurious values on the glacier surface in the ASTER DEM affected the analysis and thus prevented us from quantifying the glacier changes based on the ASTER data.  相似文献   

12.
The growth of two high-elevation inland lakes (at 4600 m) was analyzed using satellite imagery (2000–2005) and data were collected over the last decade (1997–2006) at a plateau meteorological station (at 4820 m) and stream gauging data from a station (at 4250 m) in central Tibet. We examined the lake water balance responses to meteorological and hydrological variables. The results show that the lake areas greatly expanded by a maximum of 27.1% (or 43.7 km2) between 1998 and 2005. This expansion appears to be associated with an increase in annual precipitation of 51.0 mm (12.6%), mean annual and winter mean temperature increases of 0.41 °C and 0.71 °C, and an annual runoff increase of 20% during the last decade. The changes point to an abrupt increase in the annual precipitation, mean temperature and runoff occurring in 1996, 1998 and 1997, respectively, and a decrease in the annual pan evaporation that happened in 1996. The timing of lake growth corresponds closely with abrupt increases in the annual precipitation and runoff and with the decrease in the annual evaporation since the mid-1990s. This study indicates a strong positive water balance in these permafrost highland lakes, and provides further evidence of lake growth as a proxy indicator of climate variability and change.  相似文献   

13.
Climate changes and recent glacier behaviour in the Chilean Lake District   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Atmospheric temperatures measured at the Chilean Lake District (38°–42°S) showed contrasting trends during the second half of the 20th century. The surface cooling detected at several meteorological stations ranged from − 0.014 to − 0.021 °C a− 1, whilst upper troposphere (850–300 gpm) records at radiosonde of Puerto Montt (41°26′S/73°07′W) revealed warming between 0.019 and 0.031 °C a− 1. Regional rainfall data collected from 1961 to 2000 showed the overall decrease with a maximum rate of − 15 mm a− 2 at Valdivia st. (39°38′S/73°05′W). These ongoing climatic changes, especially the precipitation reduction, seem to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena which has been more frequent after 1976. Glaciers within the Chilean Lake District have significantly retreated during recent decades, in an apparent out-of-phase response to the regional surface cooling. Moreover, very little is known about upper troposphere changes and how they can enhance the glacier responses. In order to analyse their behaviour in the context of the observed climate changes, Casa Pangue glacier (41°08′S/71°52′W) has been selected and studied by comparing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) computed at three different dates throughout the last four decades. This approach allowed the determination of ice elevation changes between 1961 and 1998, yielding a mean thinning rate of − 2.3 ± 0.6 m a− 1. Strikingly, when ice thinning is computed for the period between 1981 and 1998, the resulting rate is 50% higher (− 3.6 ± 0.6 m a− 1). This enhanced trend and the related area loss and frontal retreat suggests that Casa Pangue might currently be suffering negative mass balances in response to the upper troposphere warming and decreased precipitation of the last 25–30 yr, as well as debris cover would not prevent the glacier from a fast reaction to climate forcing. Most of recent glaciological studies regarding Andean glaciers have concentrated on low altitude changes, namely frontal variations, however, in order to better understand the regional glacier changes, new data are necessary, especially from the accumulation areas.  相似文献   

14.
This paper presents data concerning recent (1990–2007) surface morphological and ice-dynamical changes on the Tasman Glacier, New Zealand. We use remote-sensing data to derive rates of lake growth, glacier velocities and rates of glacier surface lowering. Between 1990 and 2007, the glacier terminus receded ~ 3.5 km and a large ice-contact proglacial lake developed behind the outwash head. By 2007 the lake area was ~ 6 km2 and had replaced the majority of the lowermost 4 km of the glacier tongue. There is evidence that lake growth is proceeding at increasing rates — the lake area doubled between 2000 and 2007 alone. Measured horizontal glacier velocities decline from 150 m a− 1 in the upper glacier catchment to almost zero at the glacier terminus and there is a consequent down-glacier increase in surface debris cover. Surface debris mapping shows that a large catastrophic rockfall onto the glacier surface in 1991 is still evident as a series of arcuate debris ridges below the Hochstetter icefall. Calculated glacier surface lowering is most clearly pronounced around the terminal area of the glacier tongue, with down-wasting rates of 4.2 ± 1.4 m a− 1 in areas adjacent to the lateral moraine ridges outside of the current lake extent. Surface lowering rates of approximately 1.9 ± 1.4 m a− 1 are common in the upper areas of the glacier. Calculations of future lake expansion are dependent on accurate bathymetric and bed topography surveys, but published data indicate that a further 8–10 km of the glacier is susceptible to calving and further lake development in the future.  相似文献   

15.
Late Glacial to Holocene ice retreat was investigated along a 120 km long fjord system, reaching from Gran Campo Nevado (GCN) to Seno Skyring in the southernmost Andes (53°S). The aim was to improve the knowledge on regional and global control on glacier recession with special emphasis on latitudinal shifting of the westerlies. The timing of ice retreat was derived from peat and sediment cores, using mineralogical and chemical characteristics, and pollen as proxies. Stratigraphy was based on 14C-AMS ages and tephrochronology. The ice retreat of the Seno Skyring Glacier lobe is marked by an ice rafted debris layer which was formed around 18,300 to 17,500 cal. yr B.P. Subsequently, fast glacier retreat occurred until around 15,000 to 14,000 cal. yr B.P. during which around 84% of Skyring Glacier were lost. This fast recession was probably also triggered by an increase of the Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) from 200 to 300 m. Subsequently, the ice surface was lowered below the ELA in an area that previously made up more than 50% of the accumulation area. Much slower retreat and glacier fluctuations of limited extent in the fjord channel system northeast of GCN occurred between around 14,000 to 11,000 cal. yr B.P. during both the Antarctic Cold Reversal and the Younger Dryas. This slow down of retreat indicates a decline in the general warming trend and/or increased precipitation, due to a southward migration of the westerlies. After around 11,000 cal. yr B.P. pollen distribution shows evolved Magellanic Rainforest and similar climate as at present, which lasted throughout most of the Holocene. Only Late Neoglacial moraine systems were formed in the period 1220–1460 AD, and subsequently in the 1620s AD, and between 1870 and 1910 AD. The results indicate that the Gran Campo Nevado ice cap has reacted more sensitive and partly distinct to climate change, compared to the Patagonian Ice Field.  相似文献   

16.
Teleconnections between Andean and New Zealand glaciers   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
Retreat and advance of glaciers in the Southern Alps of New Zealand have occurred over two distinct 20-yr climate periods (1954–1974) and (1974–1994). Changes in tropical and southern Andean glaciers are compared over these same periods. Behaviour of glaciers in the tropical Andes are out of phase with the Southern Alps glaciers, but some glaciers in Patagonia appear to be in phase. Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies and sea surface temperature patterns are examined for these periods. Glacier response on inter-decadal timescales is linked with distinctive shifts in atmospheric circulation patterns around the Southern Hemisphere. Retreat (advance) of glaciers in the Southern Alps and southern Andean glacier and advance (retreat) of glaciers in the tropical Andes are all associated with weaker (stronger) westerlies, blocking events in the South-east Pacific, negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies over Southern Africa and higher latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. These glacier changes are also linked with the negative (positive) phase of the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, a higher frequency of La Niña (El Niño) events, and warm (cool) sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region and cool (warm) sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern region of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Peru.  相似文献   

17.
The observed rapid glacier wastage in the European Alps during the past 20 years already has strong impacts on the natural environment (rock fall, lake formation) as well as on human activities (tourism, hydro-power production, etc.) and poses several new challenges also for glacier monitoring. With a further increase of global mean temperature in the future, it is likely that Alpine glaciers and the high-mountain environment as an entire system will further develop into a state of imbalance. Hence, the assessment of future glacier geometries is a valuable prerequisite for various impact studies. In order to calculate and visualize in a consistent manner future glacier extent for a large number of individual glaciers (> 100) according to a given climate change scenario, we have developed an automated and simple but robust approach that is based on an empirical relationship between glacier size and the steady-state accumulation area ratio (AAR0) in the Alps. The model requires digital glacier outlines and a digital elevation model (DEM) only and calculates new glacier geometries from a given shift of the steady-state equilibrium line altitude (ELA0) by means of hypsographic modelling. We have calculated changes in number, area and volume for 3062 individual glacier units in Switzerland and applied six step changes in ELA0 (from + 100 to + 600 m) combined with four different values of the AAR0 (0.5, 0.6, 0.67, 0.75). For an AAR0 of 0.6 and an ELA0 rise of 200 m (400 m) we calculate a total area loss of − 54% (− 80%) and a corresponding volume loss of − 50% (− 78%) compared to the 1973 glacier extent. In combination with a geocoded satellite image, the future glacier outlines are also used for automated rendering of perspective visualisations. This is a very attractive tool for communicating research results to the general public. Our study is illustrated for a test site in the Upper Engadine (Switzerland), where landscape changes above timberline play an important role for the local economy. The model is seen as a first-step approach, where several parts can be (and should be) further developed.  相似文献   

18.
Mendenhall Glacier is a dynamic maritime glacier in southeast Alaska that is undergoing substantial recession and thinning. The terminus has retreated 3 km during the 20th century and the lower part of the glacier has thinned 200 m or more since 1909. Glacier-wide volume loss between 1948 and 2000 is estimated at 5.5 km3. Wastage has been the strongest in the glacier's lower reaches, but the glacier has also thinned at higher elevations. The shrinkage of Mendenhall Glacier appears to be due primarily to surface melting and secondarily to lake calving. The change in the average rate of thinning on the lower glacier, <1 m a−1 between 1948 and 1982 and >2 m a−1 since 1982, agrees qualitatively with observed warming trends in the region. Mean annual temperatures in Juneau decreased slightly from 1947 to 1976; they then began to increase, leading to an overall warming of ∼1.6 °C since 1943. Lake calving losses have periodically been a small but significant fraction of glacier ablation. The portion of the terminus that ends in the lake is becoming increasingly vulnerable to calving because of a deep pro-glacial lake basin. If current climatic trends persist, the glacier will continue to shrink and the terminus will recede onto land at a position about 500 m inland within one to two decades. The glacier and the meltwaters that flow from it are integral components of the Mendenhall Valley hydrologic system. Approximately 13% of the recent average annual discharge of the Mendenhall River is attributable to glacier shrinkage. Glacier melt contributes 50% of the total river discharge in summer.  相似文献   

19.
High thinning rates (up to − 4.0 ± 0.97 m a− 1) have been measured at Campo de Hielo Patagónico Norte (CHN) or Northern Patagonia Icefield, Chile between 1975 and 2001. Results have been obtained by comparing a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derived from regular cartography compiled by Instituto Geográfico Militar of Chile (IGM) based upon 1974/1975 aerial photographs and a DEM generated from Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite images acquired in September 2001. A complete cloud-free Landsat ETM+ satellite image mosaic acquired in March 2001 was used to update the available glacier inventory of the CHN, including all glaciers larger than 0.5 km2 (48 new glaciers). A new delineation of ice divides was also performed over the accumulation areas of glaciers sharing the high plateau where the existing regular cartography exhibits poor coverage of topographic information. This updated glacier inventory produced a total ice area for 2001 of 3953 km2, which represents a decrease of 3.4 ± 1.5% (140 ± 61 km2 of ice) with respect to the total ice area of the CHN in 1979 calculated from a Landsat MSS satellite image. Almost 62% of the total area change between 1979 and 2001 took place in glaciers located at the western margin of the CHN, where the maximum area loss was experienced by Glaciar San Quintín with 33 km2. At the southern margin, Glaciar Steffen underwent the largest ice-area loss (12 km2 or 2.6% of the 1979 area), whilst at the eastern margin the greatest area loss took place in Glaciares Nef (7.9 km2, 5.7% of the 1979 area) and Colonia (9.1 km2, 2.7% of the 1979 area). At the northern margin of the CHN the lower debris-covered ablation area of Glaciar Grosse collapsed into a new freshwater lake formed during the late 1990s. The areal changes measured at the CHN are much larger than previously estimated due to the inclusion of changes experienced in the accumulation areas. The CHN as a whole is contributing melt water to global sea level rise at rates  25% higher than previous estimates.  相似文献   

20.
Evidence for Late Pleistocene glaciers and rock glaciers in the Pindus Mountains, Greece, is used to reconstruct palaeoclimate for this part of the Mediterranean during the last cold stage (Tymphian/ Würmian). Mean annual precipitation was c. 2300 ± 200 mm and the mean summer temperature (June/July/August) was c. 4.9 °C at 2174 m a.s.l., the equilibrium line altitude of the former glaciers, at the last local glacier maximum. The glacier–climate relationship in the northern Pindus Mountains during the local glacier maximum of the Tymphian Stage closely resembled that found today at the equilibrium line altitude of Norwegian glaciers. The local glacier maximum on Mount Tymphi is likely to have preceded both the most severe phase of climate indicated in the pollen record at nearby Ioannina and also the global last glacial maximum. Major stadials, including the most severe phase of the last cold stage, were characterised by cold sea surfaces temperatures, which inhibited atmospheric moisture supply creating unfavourable conditions for glacier formation. Such stadial conditions are likely to have favoured periglacial conditions and the formation of features such as rock glaciers. Conversely, warm summer temperatures during major interstadials would have promoted glacier ablation, offsetting increased precipitation enabled by warmer sea surface temperatures. Thus, the most favourable conditions for glacier formation would have occurred during intermediate conditions between major stadials and interstadials. It is clear that former glacier behaviour in the mountains of this region is best understood with reference to temporally dynamic glacier–climate models, which take into account millennial-scale changes in both precipitation and temperature.  相似文献   

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