共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
V. P. Dymnikov V. N. Lykosov E. M. Volodin 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2006,42(5):568-585
The properties of the climate system as a physical object are considered. Major concepts of the mathematical theory of climate are stated, and the problems of constructing mathematical climate models are discussed. The results of reproducing the present-day climate are analyzed, and the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in the content of greenhouse gases is considered. Major directions are formulated in which the development of the mathematical theory of climate and of modeling climate and climate change is possible. 相似文献
2.
3.
Wang Dehan 《海洋学报(英文版)》1988,7(1):57-67
The vertical distribution and seasonal variation of air temperature, humidity, static stability and Richardson number over Xisha Island are investigated based on 7-year records by means of time-altitude cross section, and harmonic and regression analyses. Mean data on height above sea level, air temperature, specific humidity, relative humidity and air density at standard-pressure surfaces are given respectively in terms of the annual average and the typhoon seasonal average of the South China Sea respectively. 相似文献
4.
The INMCM5.0 numerical model of the Earth’s climate system is presented, which is an evolution from the previous version, INMCM4.0. A higher vertical resolution for the stratosphere is applied in the atmospheric block. Also, we raised the upper boundary of the calculating area, added the aerosol block, modified parameterization of clouds and condensation, and increased the horizontal resolution in the ocean block. The program implementation of the model was also updated. We consider the simulation of the current climate using the new version of the model. Attention is focused on reducing systematic errors as compared to the previous version, reproducing phenomena that could not be simulated correctly in the previous version, and modeling the problems that remain unresolved. 相似文献
5.
6.
新生代主要全球气候事件研究进展 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
地质历史时期发生的全球气候变化事件正在成为地球科学界的研究重点。新生代以来的许多全球气候变化事件都接近于现今的地球系统,对其研究有助于理解现今地球系统过程在气候快速变化时的响应。这些主要全球气候事件包括古新世—始新世最热事件(PETM)、渐新世初大冰期事件(EOGM)、中中新世冷事件、北极冰盖形成事件、中更新世气候周期转型事件(MPT)、Dansgaard/Oscheger事件、Heinrich事件、新仙女木事件和中全新世冷事件。CO2浓度在全球气候变化中起着重要的作用。 相似文献
7.
《Ocean Modelling》2000,2(3-4):123-192
This paper presents some research developments in primitive equation ocean models which could impact the ocean component of realistic global coupled climate models aimed at large-scale, low frequency climate simulations and predictions. It is written primarily to an audience of modellers concerned with the ocean component of climate models, although not necessarily experts in the design and implementation of ocean model algorithms. 相似文献
8.
Understanding fishermen's perspectives and responses relating to climate variability is important for sustainable fisheries management. To this end, a survey of captains of commercial passenger fishing vessels (CPFVs) was conducted in San Diego. The survey demonstrates that fishermen have observed and adapted to changes in the environment and fish populations associated with climate variability. However, only 12.9% of respondents agreed that global climate change is a possibility. In order to explain fishermen's divergent beliefs on climate change, a semiparametric discrete choice model is used to identify the potential determinants. The empirical results highlight the importance of the following factors: fishermen's experience, observations of the phenomena that are associated with climate variability, and an interaction of fishermen's experience and their observations. 相似文献
9.
Sverre Haver 《Applied Ocean Research》1985,7(2):85-92
The wave climate off northern Norway is considered and the investigation is based on wave measurements made at Tromsøflaket by means of a waverider buoy during the years 1977–1981. Data quality of waverider measurements is briefly commented upon; however, more emphasis is given to an evaluation of the long-term representativity of the actual measuring period and to a procedure accounting approximately for a lack of representativity. The wave climate is presented in terms of a smoothed joint probability density function of the significant wave height, Hs, and the spectral peak period, Tp. Based on this distribution a consistent design curve in the Hs, Tp space is established. 相似文献
10.
11.
Global sea surface wind field data derived from NCEP reanalysis were used in driving a SWAN wave model to reconstruct historical wave records from 1948 to 2008. The reconstructed wave data were compared and verified by the observation of the data buoys of the Central Weather Bureau and the Water Resources Agency, Taiwan, and the National Data Buoy Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States. Over the past six decades, the wave climate in Taiwan waters has undergone considerable changes. The annual mean significant wave heights have reduced an average of 0.31 cm/year. Winter wave heights have gradually dropped 0.86 cm/year, which are related to the weakening of winter monsoons. Regarding the inter-annual wave climate variation, the influence of El Niño/southern oscillation was substantial; the wave heights increased in La Niña years and decreased in El Niño years. In the past 60 years, extreme wave events have been concentrated in two periods: 1967–1974 and 2000–2008. More severe extreme wave events occurred in the latter compared with the former, and all were induced by typhoons. A clear trend, in which the summer (winter) extreme wave events have increased (decreased) gradually, has been identified. The 1980s was the transition period. After the transition period, the annual occurrence of extreme wave events caused by typhoons exceeded those caused by an intense outbreak of winter cold surges, although the total number of the annual extreme wave events has not changed substantially. 相似文献
12.
S. N. Moshonkin A. V. Gusev V. B. Zalesny V. I. Byshev 《Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics》2016,52(2):196-206
Results of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting ocean circulation model on the simulation of the climatic variability of the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean are analyzed. We compare the ocean simulation quality with using different subgrid mixing parameterizations. The circulation model is found to be sensitive to a mixing parametrization. The computation of viscosity and diffusivity coefficients by an original splitting algorithm of the evolution equations for turbulence characteristics is found to be as efficient as traditional Monin–Obukhov parameterizations. At the same time, however, the variability of ocean climate characteristics is simulated more adequately. The simulation of salinity fields in the entire study region improves most significantly. Turbulent processes have a large effect on the circulation in the long-term through changes in the density fields. The velocity fields in the Gulf Stream and in the entire North Atlantic Subpolar Cyclonic Gyre are reproduced more realistically. The surface level height in the Arctic Basin is simulated more faithfully, marking the Beaufort Gyre better. The use of the Prandtl number as a function of the Richardson number improves the quality of ocean modeling. 相似文献
13.
Managing fish stocks under climate uncertainty 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Rothschild Brian J.; Chen Changsheng; Lough R. Greg 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2005,62(7):1531-1541
14.
CHEN Dake 《海洋学报(英文版)》2008,27(Z1):1-8
Because of its vast volume and heat capacity, the ocean contains most of the memory of the earth's ocean - atmosphere coupled system. It has been suggested that the ocean may delay global warming by absorbing large amounts of heat, that it may cause ab- rupt climate change due to its disrupted thermohaline circulation, and that it may set the time-scales for various climate oscilla- tions. Although the slow pace and persistence of oceanic variations give hope to long-range prediction, there still exist large uncer- tainties in climate predictability. Presently available observations and models are generally inadequate for studying and predicting long-term climate changes. However, some short-term fluctuations such as ENSO have been well studied and shown to be highly predictable even with simplified models. 相似文献
15.
Wave records at seven different locations within a groin field have been analysed by both statistical and spectral approaches to study the general wave climate. The wave heights and periods from the wave records were obtained by both upcross and downcross methods for the statistical approach. The variation of different wave height and wave period parameters with respect to the time of measurement at a particular location and its variation at different locations within the groin field at a particular instant of time are presented and discussed in detail in this paper. It is generally found that the wave heights follow the Weibull distribution. 相似文献
16.
Gordon G. Liao 《海洋学报(英文版)》1989,8(3):351-358
Correlation analysis as used by meteorologists and oceanographers is a tool for the analysisof the spacial or temporal variability of physical fields. In his notes, Dr. Hasselmann pro-posed to combine correlation analysis and linear regression analysis in climate prediction re-search. The main idea is to decompose the physical field into its principal oscillation patterns. 相似文献
17.
What will happen to local record values of temperature and precipitation in a world with ongoing global warming? Here we first examine how many of the observed local temperature maxima of 1901–2006 occurred in the years 2001–2006 and compare the observations with model simulations. Then we study whether, and how soon, the models simulate the climate records of the 20th century to be broken in the ongoing 21st century.
In 27% of our analysis area, the highest annual mean temperatures of the whole period 1901–2006 were observed in 2001–2006. For the 22 climate models in our study, this fraction varies from 17% to 70%, with a multimodel mean of 40%. In simulations based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario, the highest annual mean temperature of the 20th century is exceeded on average in 99% of the global area by the year 2080. The same number for the highest (lowest) annual precipitation total is 60% (43%). Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation records are also analysed, and the geographical distributions of record value occurrence are related to the distributions of time mean climate change and magnitude of interannual variability. 相似文献
In 27% of our analysis area, the highest annual mean temperatures of the whole period 1901–2006 were observed in 2001–2006. For the 22 climate models in our study, this fraction varies from 17% to 70%, with a multimodel mean of 40%. In simulations based on the SRES A1B emissions scenario, the highest annual mean temperature of the 20th century is exceeded on average in 99% of the global area by the year 2080. The same number for the highest (lowest) annual precipitation total is 60% (43%). Monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation records are also analysed, and the geographical distributions of record value occurrence are related to the distributions of time mean climate change and magnitude of interannual variability. 相似文献
18.
19.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is a project of the intergovernmental Arctic Council, intended to synthesize knowledge of the effects of climate change on the Arctic. This paper is based on the primary output of the ACIA project, a 1042 page book entitled Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Our concern is with the effects of Arctic climate change on fisheries. To set the stage, however, we first discuss those chapters that logically precede the fisheries discussion, the chapters concerned with past and present climate change, climate modeling and marine systems. The conclusion notes that moderate climate warming will probably benefit most Arctic fisheries. The conclusion also considers the role of anthropogenic causation in climate change and its policy implications. 相似文献
20.
The problems related to the role of both natural and anthropogenic factors in global climate change are considered. The role
of ocean circulation in the Earth’s global thermodynamic processes is qualitatively analyzed. The balances of greenhouse gases
in the atmosphere and in the ocean and the effect of anthropogenic factors are analyzed. The requirements for new-generation
models of the Earth’s climate are formulated. 相似文献