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1.
Earthquake loss estimation of residential buildings in Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (pre-earthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and pre-financing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy- and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan. 相似文献
2.
One of the biggest impacts of a disaster is the effect it can have on community and regional housing and the ability of people, communities and regions to recover from the damages. Policy decisions involving investments in loss reduction measures and response and recovery are best informed by the integration of scientific and socioeconomic information. Natural scientists develop hazard scenarios for stakeholders and emergency officials to assess the impacts of a particular disaster outcome. Social scientists have found that housing losses and recovery affect individuals in lower socioeconomic status disproportionately. By combining socioeconomic status data from the US Census with an earthquake scenario for southern California, an event-driven conditional distribution of earthquake risk is used to prioritize investment decisions for earthquake hazard mitigation. Simulation of the damages in the scenario showed a statistically significant risk concentration in census tracts with large numbers of residents of lower socioeconomic status living in multi-family housing and mobile homes. An application of the approach is demonstrated in Los Angeles County as a decision criterion in a building retrofit program. The earthquake scenario was used to evaluate the economic benefits of a program for voluntary mitigation and a combined program of voluntary mitigation and regulated mitigation based on socioeconomic status (mandate requiring mitigation in census tracts meeting specific damage and income thresholds). Although the analysis is a hypothetical scenario based on a simulation of a great earthquake, the results and potential outcomes show that a regulated program with a socioeconomic decision criterion would have significant benefits to vulnerable populations. 相似文献
3.
Quantitative analysis of consequences (in terms of expected monetary losses) induced by slow-moving landslide mechanisms to buildings or infrastructure networks is a key step in the landslide risk management framework. It can influence risk mitigation policies as well as help authorities in charge of land management in addressing/prioritizing interventions or restoration works. This kind of analysis generally requires multidisciplinary approaches, which cannot disregard a thorough knowledge of landslide mechanisms, and rich datasets that are seldom available as testified by the limited number of examples in the scientific literature. With reference to the well-documented case study of Lungro town (Calabria region, southern Italy)—severely affected by slow-moving landslides of different types—the present paper proposes and implements a multi-step procedure for monetary loss forecasting associated with different landslide kinematic/damage scenarios. Procedures to typify landslide mechanisms and physical vulnerability analysis, previously tested in the same area, are here appropriately merged to derive both kinematic and damage scenarios to the exposed buildings. Then, the outcomes are combined with economic data in order to forecast monetary loss at municipal scale. The proposed method and the obtained results, once further validated, could stand as reference case for other urban areas in similar geo-environmental contexts in order to derive useful information on expected direct consequences unless slow-moving landslide risk mitigation measures are taken. 相似文献
4.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):391-400
The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer. We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue. 相似文献
5.
Even advanced technological societies are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, and financial disasters, such as the 2008 collapse of the US housing and financial markets. Both resulted from unrecognized or underappreciated weaknesses in hazard assessment and mitigation policies. These policies relied on models that proved inadequate for reasons including inaccurate conceptualization of the problem, use of a too-short historic record, and neglect of interconnections. Japanese hazard models did not consider the possibility of multiple fault segments failing together, causing a much larger earthquake than anticipated, and neglected historical data for much larger tsunamis than planned for. Mitigation planning underestimated the vulnerability of nuclear power plants, due to a belief in nuclear safety. The US economic models did not consider the hazard that would result if many homeowners could not pay their mortgages, and assumed, based on a short history, that housing prices would keep rising faster than interest rates. They did not anticipate the vulnerability of the financial system to a drop in housing prices, due to belief that markets functioned best without government regulation. Preventing both types of disasters from recurring involves balancing the costs and benefits of mitigation policies. A crucial aspect of this balancing is that the benefits must be estimated using models with significant uncertainties to infer the probabilities of the future events, as we illustrate using a simple model for tsunami mitigation. Improving hazard models is important because overestimating or underestimating the hazard leads to too much or too little mitigation. Thus, although one type of disaster has natural causes and the other has economic causes, comparison provides insights for improving hazard assessment and mitigation policies. Instead of viewing such disasters as unpredictable and unavoidable “black swan” events, they are better viewed as “gray swans” that—although novel and outside recent experience—can be better foreseen and mitigated. 相似文献
6.
A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between
past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models.
The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed.
Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios
defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard
models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was
carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element
with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide
hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained
for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify
areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions. 相似文献
7.
Debris flow hazard assessment with numerical simulation 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Debris flow disasters are usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. However, debris flows are also part
of earth’s natural phenomenon, and so what is the reasonable budget to be spent on mitigation measures becomes an important
issue for the budget allocation processes. This article utilizes economic concepts to propose a reasonable estimation of the
hazard damage and the cost of proposed mitigation measures. The proposed method is composed of four steps, namely, delineating
the area of the disaster with different return periods, itemizing the land use within those areas, calculating the hazard
loss using official values, and computing the expected probable maximum loss with a probability distribution. The comparison
between the assessment of hazard and the economic gains of any proposed mitigation measures can be used as a reference for
future decision-making process. 相似文献
8.
Evidence of self-organization in Sumatra earthquakes: recurrence time and its geodynamical implications 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Risk reduction as an outcome only takes place if results of risk estimation studies are used to develop action plans for risk-management and risk-reduction strategies. This paper describes an automated model that uses the output of existing earthquake loss estimation methodologies to support decision makers in evaluating a set of competing seismic mitigation strategies and exploring their impact in reducing socio-economic losses of urban settlements. The proposed model is structured to quantify the monetary value of earthquake losses and to find an optimal budget allocation assigned to each mitigation strategy based on user input. The optimization method takes into account both pre- and post-earthquake expenditures, such as costs of building upgrades, critical facility enhancement, temporary shelter provisions, debris removal, hospitalization and human casualty. The system consists of five main modules: (1) building damage function; (2) mitigated damage function; (3) cost estimation function; (4) optimization function; and (5) user interface function. Whereas the optimization function provides the optimal values assigned to each mitigation alternative based on the estimated costs and a defined budget, the user interface allows the decision maker to interact with the software in each step and plan mitigation strategies that best suit the user’s socio-economic requirements and limitations. The outputs of the proposed model are presented with respect to an application in a pilot study area within a vulnerable city district of Tehran, Iran. 相似文献
9.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
10.
In this paper, we build an event-based seismic hazard assessment and financial analysis model for Hi-Tech Fabs in Taiwan. As we know, the low occurrence rate, tremendous loss and high uncertainty are characteristics of earthquake disasters. To handle the above issues, the model integrates knowledge from many fields including earth science, seismology, geology, risk management, structural engineering, the insurance profession, financial engineering and facility management. The portfolio of data from the site survey indicates that the model can be used to calculate the event losses (including buildings, contents and business interruption losses); furthermore the average annual loss and loss exceeding probabilities also can be calculated. The total earthquake risk cost, which includes earthquake insurance premiums, average annual retained loss and equivalent annual retrofit cost, is defined as an indicator for selection of optimal risk management strategies. 相似文献
11.
Spatio-temporal dynamics in the flood exposure due to land use changes in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Flood risk is expected to increase in many regions of the world in the next decades with rising flood losses as a consequence. First and foremost, it can be attributed to the expansion of settlement and industrial areas into flood plains and the resulting accumulation of assets. For a future-oriented and a more robust flood risk management, it is therefore of importance not only to estimate potential impacts of climate change on the flood hazard, but also to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of flood exposure due to land use changes. In this study, carried out in the Alpine Lech Valley in Tyrol (Austria), various land use scenarios until 2030 were developed by means of a spatially explicit land use model, national spatial planning scenarios and current spatial policies. The combination of the simulated land use patterns with different inundation scenarios enabled us to derive statements about possible future changes in flood-exposed built-up areas. The results indicate that the potential assets at risk depend very much on the selected socioeconomic scenario. The important conditions affecting the potential assets at risk that differ between the scenarios are the demand for new built-up areas as well as on the types of conversions allowed to provide the necessary areas at certain locations. The range of potential changes in flood-exposed residential areas varies from no further change in the most moderate scenario ‘Overall Risk’ to 119 % increase in the most extreme scenario ‘Overall Growth’ (under current spatial policy) and 159 % increase when disregarding current building restrictions. 相似文献
12.
13.
Burton Christopher G. Toquica Miguel Asad Khan Mortuza Bin Musori Michael 《Natural Hazards》2022,111(2):1301-1334
While many approaches for assessing earthquake risk exist within the literature and practice, it is the dynamic interrelationships between earthquake hazard, physical risk, and the social conditions of populations that are the focal point for disaster risk reduction. Here, the measurement of vulnerability to earthquakes (i.e., characteristics that create the potential for harm or loss) has become a major focus area. However, metrics aimed at measuring vulnerability to earthquakes suffer from several key limitations. For instance, hazard and community context are often ignored, and attempts to validate metrics are largely non-existent. The purpose of this paper is to produce composite indices of the vulnerability of countries to earthquakes within three topical areas: social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and recovery potential. To improve upon the status quo in indicators development for measuring vulnerability to seismic events, our starting point was to: (1) define a set of indicators that are context specific to earthquakes as defined by the literature; (2) delineate indicators within categorical areas of vulnerability that are easy to understand and could be put into practical use by DRR practitioners; and (3) propose indicators that are validated using historical earthquake impacts. When mapped, the geographic variations in the differential susceptibility of populations and economies to the adverse effects of damaging earthquake impacts become evident, as does differential ability of countries to recover from them. Drivers of this geographic variation include average country debt, the type and density of infrastructure, poverty, governance, and educational attainment, to name just a few.
相似文献14.
We investigated the Coulomb stress changes in the active faults surrounding a moderate‐magnitude normal‐faulting earthquake (2009 L'Aquila, Mw 6.3) and the associated variations in the expected ground motion on regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. We show that the static stress variations can locally increase the seismic hazard by modifying the expected mean recurrence time on neighbouring faults by up to ~290 years, with associated variations in the probability of occurrence of the maximum expected earthquake of up to ~2%. Our findings suggest that the increase in seismic hazard on neighbouring faults following moderate‐magnitude earthquakes is probably not sufficient to necessitate systematic upgrades of regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps, but must be considered to better address and schedule strategies for local‐scale mitigation of seismic risk. 相似文献
15.
Mabel C. Marulanda Omar D. Cardona Miguel G. Mora Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2071-2088
Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are probabilistic metrics useful for risk analyses, for designing strategies for risk reduction and mitigation, for emergency response strategies and for risk financing. This article presents, based on probabilistic risk models, the design and implementation of a risk transfer instrument to cover the private buildings of the city of Manizales, Colombia. This voluntary collective instrument provides financial protection to both, the estate tax payers and the low-income homeowners through a cross-subsidy strategy; besides, it promotes not only the insurance culture but also the solidarity of the community. The city administration and the insurance industry are promoting this program using the mechanism of the property tax payment. This collective insurance helps the government to access key resources for low-income householders recovery and improve disaster risk management at local level. 相似文献
16.
17.
As property damage from flooding continues to increase, particularly in coastal areas, the adoption of strategies to mitigate these losses has never been more important to protecting the health and safety of coastal communities. Both structural and non-structural flood mitigation activities are being considered to buffer the adverse consequences of building structures in areas exposed to flood risk. However, little research has been conducted on the effectiveness of flood mitigation practices, particularly non-structural approaches at the parcel level. Our study addresses this lack of critical knowledge by examining the effect of mitigation activities adopted under the FEMA community rating system on insured property losses across multiple communities within the Clear Creek watershed located just south of Houston, TX and adjacent to Galveston Bay. Specifically, we statistically identify the degree to which various mitigation strategies adopted by a community reduce flood loss claims among 9,555 parcels from 1999 to 2009. Results indicate that several mitigation policies adopted at the community level result in significant savings in property damage for homeowners in the Clear Creek watershed. 相似文献
18.
The seismic risks to which populations are exposed should be estimated reliably for mitigation and preparation of response to disastrous earthquakes. Three parameters need to be known: Population numbers, properties of the built environment, and the seismic hazard. If we focus on large cities, we can say that at least one of these is known satisfactorily, namely the population, but not the other two. In the developing world, the numbers of buildings in a city are known only approximately, their distribution into building types (resistance to shaking) has to be assumed, and the distribution of types throughout the city is unknown. Recent verification of the world seismic hazard map has shown that it is grossly misleading: Instrumental measurements of accelerations due to six earthquakes were about three times larger, on average, than the maximum likely accelerations shown on the map; the macroseismic intensities reported for the last 60 earthquakes with M ≥ 7.5 were all significantly larger than expected, based on the hazard map (by 2.3 intensity units for the 12 deadliest earthquakes); and calculations of losses of life based on the hazard map underestimate the losses sustained in the 12 recent earthquakes with more than 1,000 fatalities by two to three orders of magnitude. This means that the seismic risk in most of the approximately 1,000 large cities at risk in the developing world is unknown. To remedy this intolerable situation, models for the built environment in cities need to be constructed, using cost-effective analyses of satellite images, and worst case scenario estimates of the losses in case of the nearest maximum credible earthquake. 相似文献
19.
Seismic Hazard and Loss Estimation for Central America 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
A new methodology of seismic hazard and loss estimation has been proposed by Chen et al. (Chen et al., 1998; Chan et al., 1998) for the study of global seismic risk. Due to its high adaptability for regions of different features and scales, the methodology was applied to Central America. Seismic hazard maps in terms of both macro-seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are provided. The maps are all based on the global instrumental as well as historical seismic catalogs and available attenuation relations. Employing the population-weighted gross domestic product (GDP) data, the expected earthquake loss in 50 years for Central America is also estimated at a 5' latitude × 5' longitude resolution. Besides the seismic risk index, a measure of the relative loss or risk degree is calculated for each individual country within the study area. The risk index may provide a useful tool to help allocations of limited mitigation resources and efforts for the purpose of reduction of seismic disasters. For expected heavy loss locations, such as the Central American capital cities, earthquake scenario analysis is helpful in providing a quick overview of loss distribution assuming a major event occurs there. Examples of scenario analysis are given for San Jose, capital of Costa Rica, and Panama City, capital of Panama, respectively. 相似文献
20.
Comprehensive risk assessments are fundamental to effective emergency management. These assessments need to identify the range
of hazards (or perils) an entity is exposed to and quantify the specific threats associated with each of those hazards. While
hazard identification is commonly, if not formally, conducted in most circumstances, specific threat analysis is often overlooked
for a variety of reasons, one of which is poor communication with subject matter experts. This poor communication is often
attributable to an adherence to scientific jargon and missed opportunities to simplify information. In Canada, for example,
earthquake hazard calculations have been readily available to engineers and scientists for decades. This hazard information,
however, is expressed in terms of peak ground accelerations (PGA) or spectral accelerations (SA) that are foreign concepts
to most emergency managers, community decision-makers and the public-at-large. There is, therefore, a need to more clearly,
simply and effectively express seismic hazard information to the non-scientific community. This paper provides crustal, sub-crustal
and subduction interface earthquake shaking probabilities, expressed as simple percentages for each of 57 locations across
Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. Calculations present the likelihood of earthquake shaking on Vancouver Island
as the probabilities of exceeding each of three shaking intensity thresholds (“widely felt”; onset of “non-structurally damaging”
shaking; and onset of “structurally damaging” shaking) over four timeframes (10, 25, 50 and 100 years). Results are based
on the latest Geological Survey of Canada hazard models used for the 2010 national building code and are presented in both
tabular and graphic formats. This simplified earthquake hazard information is offered to aid local residents, organizations
and governments in understanding and assessing their risk and to encourage and facilitate sound earthquake preparedness funding
decisions. 相似文献