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1.
The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in 2002, which largely resulted from a major rainfall deficiency in the month of July. While moderate El Nino conditions prevailed during this period, the atmospheric convective activity was anomalously enhanced over northwest and north-central Pacific in the 10–20°N latitude belt; and heavy rainfall occurred over this region in association with a series of northward moving tropical cyclones. Similar out-of-phase rainfall variations over the Indian region and the northwest (NW) Pacific have been observed during other instances of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dynamical linkage corresponding to this out-of-phase rainfall variability is explored in this study by conducting a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results from the model simulations lend credence to the role of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in forcing the out-of-phase precipitation variability over the NW Pacific and the Indian monsoon region. It is seen that the ENSO induced circulation response reveals an anomalous pattern comprising of alternating highs and lows which extend meridionally from the equatorial region into the sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions of west-central Pacific. This meridional pattern is associated with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over NW Pacific, which is found to favor enhanced tropical cyclonic activity and intensified convection over the region. In turn, the intensified convection over NW Pacific induces subsidence and rainfall deficiency over the Indian landmass through anomalous east-west circulation in the 10–20°N latitude belt. Based on the present findings, it is suggested that the convective activity over NW Pacific is an important component in mediating the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection dynamics.  相似文献   

2.
Summary Using the 60 year period (1931–1990) gridded land surface air temperature anomalies data, the spatial and temporal relationships between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and temperature anomalies were examined. Composite temperature anomalies were prepared in respect of 11 deficient monsoon years and 9 excess monsoon years. Statistical tests were carried out to examine the significance of the composites. In addition, correlation coefficients between the temperature anomalies and Indian summer monsoon rainfall were also calculated to examine the teleconnection patterns.There were statistically significant differences in the composite of temperature anomaly patterns between excess and deficient monsoon years over north Europe, central Asia and north America during January and May, over NW India during May, over central parts of Africa during May and July and over Indian sub-continent and eastern parts of Asia during July. It has been also found that temperature anomalies over NW Europe, central parts of Africa and NW India during January and May were positively correlated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Similarly temperature anomalies over central Asia during January and temperature anomalies over central Africa and Indian region during July were negatively correlated. There were secular variations in the strength of relationships between temperature anomalies and Indian summer monsoon rainfall. In general, temperature anomalies over NW Europe and NW India showed stronger correlations during the recent years. It has been also found that during excess (deficient) monsoon years temperature gradient over Eurasian land mass from sub-tropics to higher latitudes was directed equatowards (polewards) indicating strong (weak) zonal flow. This temperature anomaly gradient index was found to be a useful predictor for long range forecasting of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.With 12 Figures  相似文献   

3.
In this paper, a diagnostic study is carried out with global analysis data sets to determine how the large scale atmospheric circulation affecting the anomalous drought of the Indian summer monsoon 2002. The daily analysis obtained from National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for the month of July is used to investigate the mean circulation characteristics and the large scale energetics over the Indian monsoon domain. Examination of rainfall revealed that the summer monsoon (JJAS) rainfall of 2002 over India is 22% below normal in which the large deficit of 56% below normal rainfall in July. The recent past drought during summer season of 2004 and 2009 are 12 and 23%, respectively, below normal rainfall. The large deficit of rainfall in 2009 is from the June month with 48% below normal rainfall, where as 2004 drought contributed from July (19%) and August (24%). Another significant facet of the rainfall in July 2002 is lowest ever recorded in the past 138 years (1871–2008). The circulation features illustrated weak low level westerly wind at 850 hPa (Somali Jet) in July during large deficit rainfall years of 1987 and 2002 with a reduction of about 30% when compared with the excess and normal rainfall years of 1988 and 2003. Also, tropical easterly jet at 150 hPa reduced by 15% during the deficit rainfall year of 2002 against the excess rainfall year of 1988. Both the jet streams are responsible for low level convergence and upper level divergence leading to build up moisture and convective activity to sustain the strength of the monsoon circulation. These changes are well reflected in reduction of tropospheric moisture profile considerably. It is found that the maximum number of west pacific cyclonic system during July 2002 is also influenced for large deficit rainfall over India. The dynamic, thermodynamic and energetic clearly show the monsoon break type situation over India in the month of July 2002 resulting less convective activity and the reduction of moisture. The large diabatic heating, flux convergence of heat and moisture over south east equatorial Indian Ocean are also responsible for drought situation in July 2002 over the Indian region.  相似文献   

4.
Summary Southwest monsoon rainfall over India during July 2002 was the lowest since instrumental observations of monsoon rainfall began. The present study is an attempt to examine some of the probable causes for this unprecedented rainfall deficit. It is found that mid and higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere were abnormally warm during the spring and summer months. Associated with this unusual warming were two blocking highs, one each to the east and west of the Indian subcontinent. These were separated by an anomalous low (low temperature) just to the north of the subcontinent. This anomalous stationary wave-like configuration was consistently present from March to August and the blocking highs were found to be closer to each other during July. This configuration was apparently responsible for the advection of anomalously dry air over the Indian region during July, which may be one of the causes of the suppressed monsoon flow and, ultimately, rainfall activity.  相似文献   

5.
The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don’t. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than −1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for variations in NE monsoon rainfall extremes during El Niño years. This study indicates that despite having strong warming in the central and eastern Pacific, NE monsoon rainfall variations over the southern peninsular India is mostly determined by SST gradient over the Indo-western Pacific region and number of systems formation in the Bay of Bengal and their land fall. The paper concludes that though the favourable large scale circulation induced by Pacific is important in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall the local air sea interaction plays a key role in modulating or driving rainfall extremes associated with El Niño.  相似文献   

6.
Summary Based on observed rainfall data of India Meteorological Department (IMD), correlation coefficients (CCs) have been computed between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over different Nino regions and standardised pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. Significant positive CCs are found between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in winter and subsequent June rainfall over India. Concurrent with and subsequent to Indian summer monsoon, SOI shows significant positive CC with the mean rainfall of July to September (JAS). Significant negative CCs are found between JAS mean rain and the concurrent and following SST anomalies over Nino-3.4 region. On the basis of these correlations, it is proposed that the entire period of summer monsoon from June to September could be divided into two sub-periods such as: early summer (June) and mid-late summer (July to September) monsoon for prediction of ISMR in the extended range.In order to examine the characteristics of atmospheric circulation during some El-Nino years, divergent flow at 200hPa and omega field at 500hPa based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis have been studied in detail. Major significant southward shift of upper level divergent field from India are related to El-Nino and this shift may be responsible for causing droughts during several El-Nino years over India. Also vertical wind fields at 500hPa show sinking motion over large parts of India and west Pacific and ascending motion over southern Indian Ocean, central and eastern Pacific during major drought years.  相似文献   

7.
Summary ?This study presents the monthly climatology and variability of the INSAT (Indian National Satellite) derived snow cover estimates over the western Himalayan region. The winter/spring snow estimates over the region are related to the subsequent summer monsoon rainfall over India. The NCEP/NCAR data are used to understand the physical mechanism of the snow-monsoon links. 15 years (1986–2000) of recent data are utilized to investigate these features in the present global warming environment. Results reveal that the spring snow cover area has been declining and snow has been melting faster from winter to spring after 1993. Connections between snow cover estimates and Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) show that spring snow cover area is negatively related with maximum during May, while snow melt during the February–May period is positively related with subsequent IMR, implying that smaller snow cover area during May and faster snow melt from winter to spring is conducive for good monsoon activity over India. NCEP/NCAR data further shows that the heat low over northwest India and the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent, in particular the cross-equatorial flow, during May are intensified (weakened) when the snow cover area during May is smaller (extensive) and snow melts faster (slower) during the February–May period. The well-documented negative relationship between winter snow and summer rainfall seems to have altered recently and changed to a positive relationship. The changes observed in snow cover extent and snow depth due to global warming may be a possible cause for the weakening winter snow–IMR relationship. Received January 15, 2002; revised May 5, 2002; accepted June 23, 2002  相似文献   

8.
Summary The influence of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode on the extreme summer monsoon rainfall over East Asia (China, Korea, Japan) has been investigated applying simple statistical techniques of correlation and composite analysis. While the observed rainfall data are used as a measure of rainfall activity, the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis data are used to examine the circulation features associated with the extreme monsoon phases and the dynamics of the zonal mode – monsoon variability connections. The data used covers the period 1960 to 2000.The equatorial Indian Ocean is dominated by westerly winds blowing towards Indonesia. However, during the positive phase of the zonal mode, an anomalous, intensified easterly flow prevails, consistent with the positive (negative) sea surface temperature anomalies over the western (southeastern) equatorial Indian Ocean. This positive phase of the zonal mode enhances summer monsoon activity over China, but suppresses the monsoon activity over the Korea-Japan sector, 3 to 4 seasons later. The relationship is more consistent and stronger over the Korea-Japan region than over China.The Indian Ocean influences the monsoon variability over East Asia via the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes or via the eastern Indian Ocean/west Pacific route. The monsoon-desert mechanism induces strong subsidence northwest of India due to the anomalous convection over the Indian Ocean region associated with the positive phase of the zonal mode. This induces a zonal wave pattern over the mid-latitudes of Asia propagating eastwards and displacing the north Pacific subtropical high over East Asia. The warming over the eastern Indian Ocean/west Pacific inhibits the westward extension of the north Pacific sub-tropical high. The location and shape of this high plays a dominant role in the monsoon variability over East Asia. The memory for delayed impact, three to four seasons later, could be carried by the surface boundary conditions of Eurasian snow cover via the northern channel or the equatorial SSTs near the Indonesian Through Flow via the southern channel.  相似文献   

9.
This study has investigated the possible relation between the Indian summer monsoon and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) observed in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Pacific Ocean. Using long records of observations and coupled model (NCAR CCSM4) simulation, this study has found that the warm (cold) phase of the PDO is associated with deficit (excess) rainfall over India. The PDO extends its influence to the tropical Pacific and modifies the relation between the monsoon rainfall and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the warm PDO period, the impact of El Niño (La Niña) on the monsoon rainfall is enhanced (reduced). A hypothesis put forward for the mechanism by which PDO affects the monsoon starts with the seasonal footprinting of SST from the North Pacific to the subtropical Pacific. This condition affects the trade winds, and either strengthens or weakens the Walker circulation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans depending on the phase of the PDO. The associated Hadley circulation in the monsoon region determines the impact of PDO on the monsoon rainfall. We suggest that knowing the phase of PDO may lead to better long-term prediction of the seasonal monsoon rainfall and the impact of ENSO on monsoon.  相似文献   

10.
The 2009 drought in India was one of the major droughts that the country faced in the last 100?years. This study describes the anomalous features of 2009 summer monsoon and examines real-time seasonal predictions made using six general circulation models (GCMs). El Ni?o conditions evolved in the Pacific Ocean, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian Ocean were warmer than normal during monsoon 2009. The observed circulation patterns indicate a weaker monsoon in that year over India with weaker than normal convection over the Bay of Bengal and Indian landmass. Skill of the GCMs during hindcast period shows that neither these models simulate the observed interannual variability nor their multi-model ensemble (MME) significantly improves the skill of monsoon rainfall predictions. Except for one model used in this study, the real-time predictions with longer lead (2- and 1-month lead) made for the 2009 monsoon season did not provide any indication of a highly anomalous monsoon. However, with less lead time (zero lead), most of the models as well as the MME had provided predictions of below normal rainfall for that monsoon season. This study indicates that the models could not predict the 2009 drought over India due to the use of less warm SST anomalies over the Pacific in the longer lead runs. Hence, it is proposed that the uncertainties in SST predictions (the lower boundary condition) have to be represented in the model predictions of summer monsoon rainfall over India.  相似文献   

11.
The year 2019 experienced an excess monsoon season over the Indian region, with the seasonal rainfall being 110 % of the long period average (LPA). Several zones across the country suffered multiple extreme rainfall events and flood situations resulting in a massive loss of life and property. The first half of 2019 experienced a moderate El Niño Modoki event that lasted till mid-summer. Another important feature of 2019 was the strongest recorded positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that lasted approximately seven months from May to November. This study has examined the reasons for the intra-seasonal variability of rainfall over India during the 2019 monsoon using available remote sensing and reanalysis data. Our analysis has shown that the presence of El Niño and the formation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) in the Arabian Sea were unfavorable for the monsoon onset and its northward advancement during June. However, the Walker circulation associated with El Niño helped strengthen the IOD developed early in the Indian Ocean, much before the monsoon onset. The anomalously strong IOD strengthened the monsoon circulation during July-September and resulted in excess rainfall over India.  相似文献   

12.
500 hPa ridge positions over the Indian and the West Pacific regions during April are related with the summer monsoon rainfall over India. The ridge position over the Indian region shows better relation with monsoon rainfall than that shown by the ridge over the Pacific region. The multiple correlation of these ridge positions with monsoon rainfall exceeds 0.7. These predictive relationships are better than those shown by other parameters, viz. (1) Northern Hemispheric surface temperature; (2) East-Pacific sea surface tempera-ture; (3) El-Nino events and (4) Tahiti-Darwin pressure difference, and index of southern oscillation, over the 30-year samples analysed.  相似文献   

13.
The summer monsoon rainfall over India exhibits strong intraseasonal variability. Earlier studies have identified Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) as one of the most influencing factors of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon rainfall. In this study, using India Meteorological Department (IMD) high resolution daily gridded rainfall data and Wheeler?CHendon MJO indices, the intra-seasonal variation of daily rainfall distribution over India associated with various Phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle was examined to understand the mechanism linking the MJO to the intraseasonal variability. During MJO Phases of 1 and 2, formation of MJO associated positive convective anomaly over the equatorial Indian Ocean activated the oceanic tropical convergence zone (OTCZ) and the resultant changes in the monsoon circulation caused break monsoon type rainfall distribution. Associated with this, negative convective anomalies over monsoon trough zone region extended eastwards to date line indicating weaker than normal northern hemisphere inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). The positive convective anomalies over OTCZ and negative convective anomalies over ITCZ formed a dipole like pattern. Subsequently, as the MJO propagated eastwards to west equatorial Pacific through the maritime continent, a gradual northward shift of the OTCZ was observed and negative convective anomalies started appearing over equatorial Indian Ocean. During Phase 4, while the eastwards propagating MJO linked positive convective anomalies activated the eastern part of the ITCZ, the northward propagating OTCZ merged with monsoon trough (western part of the ITCZ) and induced positive convective anomalies over the region. During Phases 5 and 6, the dipole pattern in convective anomalies was reversed compared to that during Phases 1 and 2. This resulted active monsoon type rainfall distribution over India. During the subsequent Phases (7 and 8), the convective and lower tropospheric anomaly patterns were very similar to that during Phase 1 and 2 except for above normal convective anomalies over equatorial Indian Ocean. A general decrease in the rainfall was also observed over most parts of the country. The associated dry conditions extended up to northwest Pacific. Thus the impact of the MJO on the monsoon was not limited to the Indian region. The impact was rather felt over larger spatial scale extending up to Pacific. This study also revealed that the onset of break and active events over India and the duration of these events are strongly related to the Phase and strength of the MJO. The break events were relatively better associated with the strong MJO Phases than the active events. About 83% of the break events were found to be set in during the Phases 7, 8, 1 and 2 of MJO with maximum during Phase 1 (40%). On the other hand, about 70% of the active events were set in during the MJO Phases of 3 to 6 with maximum during Phase 4 (21%). The results of this study indicate an opportunity for using the real time information and skillful prediction of MJO Phases for the prediction of break and active conditions which are very crucial for agriculture decisions.  相似文献   

14.
2010年西北太平洋与南海热带气旋活动异常的成因分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
利用中国气象局热带气旋（TC）资料、NCEP/NCAR 再分析资料和美国 NOAA 向外长波辐射（OLR）等资料,分析了2010年西北太平洋（WNP）及南海（SCS）热带气旋活动异常的可能成因,讨论了同期大气环流配置和海温外强迫对TC生成和登陆的动力和热力条件的影响。结果表明,2010年生成TC频数明显偏少,生成源地显著偏西,而登陆TC频数与常年持平。导致7～10月TC频数明显偏少的大尺度环境场特征为：副热带高压较常年异常偏强、西伸脊点偏西,季风槽位置异常偏西,弱垂直风切变带位置也较常年偏西且范围偏小,南亚高压异常偏强,贝加尔湖附近对流层低高层均为反气旋距平环流,这些关键环流因子的特征和配置都不利于 TC 在WNP的东部生成。影响TC活动的外强迫场特征为：2010年热带太平洋经历了El Ni?o事件于春末夏初消亡、La Ni?a事件于7月形成的转换;7～10月,WNP海表温度维持正距平,140°E以东为负距平且对流活动受到抑制;暖池次表层海温异常偏暖,对应上空850 hPa为东风距平,有利于季风槽偏西和TC在WNP的西北侧海域生成。WNP海表温度和暖池次表层海温的特征是2010年TC生成频数偏少、生成源地异常偏西的重要外强迫信号。有利于7～10月热带气旋西行和登陆的500 hPa风场特征为：北太平洋为反气旋环流距平,其南侧为东风异常,该东风异常南缘可到25°N,并向西扩展至中国大陆地区;南海和西北太平洋地区15°N以南的低纬也为东风异常;在这样的风场分布型下,TC容易受偏东气流引导西行并登陆我国沿海地区。这是2010年生成TC偏少但登陆TC并不少的重要环流条件。  相似文献   

15.
Summary Hindcasts for the Indian summer monsoons (ISMs) of 2002 and 2003 have been produced from an ensemble of numerical simulations performed with a global model by changing SST. Two sets of ensemble simulations have been produced without vegetation: (i) by prescribing the weekly observed SST from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) analyses, and (ii) by adding weekly SST anomalies (SSTA) of April to the climatological SST during the simulation period from May to August. For each ensemble, 10 simulations have been realized with different initial conditions that are prepared from ECMWF data with five each from April and May analyses of both the years. The predicted June–July monsoon rainfall over the Indian region shows good agreement with the GPCP (observed) pentad rainfall distribution when 5 member ensemble is taken from May initial conditions. The All-India June–July simulated rainfall time series matches favourably with the observed time series in both the years for the five member ensemble from May initial condition but drifts away from observation with April initial conditions. This underscores the role of initial conditions in the seasonal forecasting. But the model has failed to capture the strong intra-seasonal oscillation in July 2002. Heating over equatorial Indian Ocean for June 2002 in a particular experiment using 29th May 12 GMT as initial conditions shows some intra-seasonal oscillation in July 2002 rainfall, as in observation. Further evaluation of the seasonal simulations from this model is done by calculating the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the GPCP rainfall over India. The first four EOFs explain more than 80% of the total variance of the observed rainfall. The time series of expansion coefficients (principal components), obtained by projecting on the observed EOFs, provide a better framework for inter-comparing model simulations and their evaluation with observed data. The main finding of this study is that the All-India rainfall from various experiments with prescribed SST is better predicted on seasonal scale as compares to prescribed SST anomalies. This is indicative of a possible useful seasonal forecasts from a GCM at least for the case when monsoon is going to be good. The model responses do not differ much for 2002 and 2003 since the evolution of SST during these years was very similar, hence July rainfall seems to be largely modulated by the other feedbacks on the overall circulation.  相似文献   

16.
Inter-annual and regional variations in aerosol and cloud characteristics, water vapor and rainfall over six homogeneous rainfall zones in India during the core monsoon month of July from 2000 to 2010, and their correlations are analyzed. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol absorbing index (AAI) in July 2002, a drought year are higher over India when compared to normal monsoon years. The drier conditions that existed due to deficient rainfall in July 2002 could be responsible for raising more dust and smoke resulting in higher AODs over India. In addition, over India precipitation is not uniform and large-scale interruptions occur during the monsoon season. During these interruptions aerosols can build up over a region and contribute to an increase in AODs. This finding is supported by the occurrence of higher anomalies in AOD, AAI and rainfall over India in July 2002. Aerosol characteristics and rainfall exhibit large regional variations. Cloud effective radius (CER), cloud optical thickness and columnar water vapor over India are the lowest in July 2002. CER decreases as AOD and AAI increase, providing an observational evidence for the indirect effect of aerosols. Eighty percent of CER in northwest India, and 30% of CER over All India in July 2002 are <14 μm, the precipitation threshold critical cloud effective radius. Northeast India shows contrasting features of correlation among aerosols, clouds and rainfall when compared to other regions. These results will be important while examining the inter-annual variation in aerosols, cloud characteristics, rainfall and their trends.  相似文献   

17.
Summary During most El-Ni?o events the Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been below normal. El-Ni?o that occurred during 1997 was one of the strongest in the 20th century, but did not have an adverse impact on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in 1997. This is despite the fact that most parameters observed in May 1997 suggested that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall may be below normal. This intriguing feature of the 1997 Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been examined by studying the evolution of various parameters from May to August. The behavior of the 1997 monsoon is related to its evolution during June and July, with westward migration of cloudbands from West Pacific that increased convection over Bay of Bengal. We find that there exists a significant correlation between convective activity over Bay of Bengal and winds over the Arabian Sea with the latter lagging convection over Bay of Bengal by about three days. The convective activity over Bay of Bengal induces stronger winds over the Arabian Sea and this in turn enhances advection of moisture into the Indian landmass and leads to increased precipitable water and strength of the monsoon. Using a simple thermodynamic model we show that increased precipitable water during July leads to increased rainfall. A similar behavior has also been noticed during the 1983 monsoon, with precursors indicating a possible poor monsoon but subsequent events changed the course of the monsoon. Received May 21, 2001 Revised October 10, 2001  相似文献   

18.
The Northwest Pacific (NWP) circulation (subtropical high) is an important component of the East Asian summer monsoon system. During summer (June–August), anomalous lower tropospheric anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation appears over NWP in some years, which is an indicative of stronger (weaker) than normal subtropical high. The anomalous NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years are associated with negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over most of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) region. This indicates concurrent relationship between NWP circulation and convection over the ISMR region. Dry wind advection from subtropical land regions and moisture divergence over the southern peninsular India during the NWP cyclonic circulation years are mainly responsible for the negative rainfall anomalies over the ISMR region. In contrast, during anticyclonic years, warm north Indian Ocean and moisture divergence over the head Bay of Bengal-Gangetic Plain region support moisture instability and convergence in the southern flank of ridge region, which favors positive rainfall over most of the ISMR region. The interaction between NWP circulation (anticyclonic or cyclonic) and ISMR and their predictability during these anomalous years are examined in the present study. Seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center and their multimodel ensemble mean skills in predicting the seasonal rainfall and circulation anomalies over the ISMR region and NWP for the period 1982–2004 are assessed. Analysis reveals that three (two) out of seven models are unable to predict negative (positive) precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent during the NWP cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation years at 1-month lead (model is initialized on 1 May). The limited westward extension of the NWP circulation and misrepresentation of SST anomalies over the north Indian Ocean are found to be the main reasons for the poor skill (of some models) in rainfall prediction over the Indian subcontinent. This study demonstrates the importance of the NWP circulation variability in predicting summer monsoon precipitation over South Asia. Considering the predictability of the NWP circulation, the current study provides an insight into the predictability of ISMR. Long lead prediction of the ISMR associated with anomalous NWP circulation is also discussed.  相似文献   

19.
Monsoon precipitation in the AMIP runs   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  
 We present an analysis of the seasonal precipitation associated with the African, Indian and the Australian-Indonesian monsoon and the interannual variation of the Indian monsoon simulated by 30 atmospheric general circulation models undertaken as a special diagnostic subproject of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The seasonal migration of the major rainbelt observed over the African region, is reasonably well simulated by almost all the models. The Asia West Pacific region is more complex because of the presence of warm oceans equatorward of heated continents. Whereas some models simulate the observed seasonal migration of the primary rainbelt, in several others this rainbelt remains over the equatorial oceans in all seasons. Thus, the models fall into two distinct classes on the basis of the seasonal variation of the major rainbelt over the Asia West Pacific sector, the first (class I) are models with a realistic simulation of the seasonal migration and the major rainbelt over the continent in the boreal summer; and the second (class II) are models with a smaller amplitude of seasonal migration than observed. The mean rainfall pattern over the Indian region for July-August (the peak monsoon months) is even more complex because, in addition to the primary rainbelt over the Indian monsoon zone (the monsoon rainbelt) and the secondary one over the equatorial Indian ocean, another zone with significant rainfall occurs over the foothills of Himalayas just north of the monsoon zone. Eleven models simulate the monsoon rainbelt reasonably realistically. Of these, in the simulations of five belonging to class I, the monsoon rainbelt over India in the summer is a manifestation of the seasonal migration of the planetary scale system. However in those belonging to class II it is associated with a more localised system. In several models, the oceanic rainbelt dominates the continental one. On the whole, the skill in simulation of excess/deficit summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region is found to be much larger for models of class I than II, particularly for the ENSO associated seasons. Thus, the classification based on seasonal mean patterns is found to be useful for interpreting the simulation of interannual variation. The mean rainfall pattern of models of class I is closer to the observed and has a higher pattern correlation coefficient than that of class II. This supports Sperber and Palmer’s (1996) result of the association of better simulation of interannual variability with better simulation of the mean rainfall pattern. The hypothesis, that the skill of simulation of the interannual variation of the all-India monsoon rainfall in association with ENSO depends upon the skill of simulation of the seasonal variation over the Asia West Pacific sector, is supported by a case in which we have two versions of the model where NCEP1 is in class II and NCEP2 is in class I. The simulation of the interannual variation of the local response over the central Pacific as well as the all-India monsoon rainfall are good for NCEP2 and poor for NCEP1. Our results suggest that when the model climatology is reasonably close to observations, to achieve a realistic simulation of the interannual variation of all-India monsoon rainfall associated with ENSO, the focus should be on improvement of the simulation of the seasonal variation over the Asia West Pacific sector rather than further improvement of the simulation of the mean rainfall pattern over the Indian region. Received: 2 June 1997 / Accepted: 8 January 1998  相似文献   

20.
1998 SCSMEX期间亚洲30－60天低频振荡特征的分析   总被引：34，自引：0，他引：34  
对１９９８年 ５－８月南海季风试验（ＳＣＳＭＥＸ）期间东亚地区 ８５０ ｈＰａ中低纬环流指数、东亚季风指数和长江中下游降水进行了Ｍｏｒｌｅｔ 小波分析,结果表明在此期间这些要素均有明显的３０－６０天周期低频振荡。在此基础上对 ５－８月每隔 ５天的 ８５０ ｈＰａ低频流场进行分析,结果表明：（１）１００°－１５０°Ｅ间东亚从中国东中部大陆经南海和西太平洋的南北半球中明显的存在一个以３０－６０天低频荡为特征的东亚季风低频环流系统,东亚季风活动主要受东亚季风系统中低频活动影响;（２）５月第５候南海热带季风爆发、６月中旬长江中下游人梅及产生大暴雨以及７月中旬以后的该地区大暴雨均与低频气旋带在该地区活动有关,而８月长江上游大暴雨则与低频反气旋伸人到大陆有关;（３）ＳＣＳＭＥＸ期间东亚低频振荡系统的源地有二个,即南海赤道和北半球中太平洋中高纬。南海低频系统向北传播,而中高纬低频系统自东北向西南传播为主。长江中下游６、７月二次大暴雨均与上述二个低频气旋系统自热带向北和中高纬向西南传播并于长江中下游汇合有关;（４）５－８月间东亚季风系统中有二次低频气旋带和二次低频反气旋带活动,这些低频环流系统的活动与印度季风低频环流系统活动并无明  相似文献   

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