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1.
This research evaluates the performance of areal interpolation coupled with dasymetric refinement to estimate different demographic attributes, namely population sub-groups based on race, age structure and urban residence, within consistent census tract boundaries from 1990 to 2010 in Massachusetts. The creation of such consistent estimates facilitates the study of the nuanced micro-scale evolution of different aspects of population, which is impossible using temporally incompatible small-area census geographies from different points in time. Various unexplored ancillary variables, including the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), the National Land-Cover Database (NLCD), parcels, building footprints and the proprietary ZTRAX® dataset are utilized for dasymetric refinement prior to areal interpolation to examine their effectiveness in improving the accuracy of multi-temporal population estimates. Different areal interpolation methods including Areal Weighting (AW), Target Density Weighting (TDW), Expectation Maximization (EM) and its data-extended approach are coupled with different dasymetric refinement scenarios based on these ancillary variables. The resulting consistent small area estimates of white and black subpopulations, people of age 18–65 and urban population show that dasymetrically refined areal interpolation is particularly effective when the analysis spans a longer time period (1990–2010 instead of 2000–2010) and the enumerated population is sufficiently large (e.g., counts of white vs. black). The results also demonstrate that current census-defined urban areas overestimate the spatial distribution of urban population and dasymetrically refined areal interpolation improves estimates of urban population. Refined TDW using building footprints or the ZTRAX® dataset outperforms all other methods. The implementation of areal interpolation enriched by dasymetric refinement represents a promising strategy to create more reliable multi-temporal and consistent estimates of different population subgroups and thus demographic compositions. This methodological foundation has the potential to advance micro-scale modeling of various subpopulations, particularly urban population to inform studies of urbanization and population change over time as well as future population projections. 相似文献
2.
Paul A Zandbergen 《Transactions in GIS》2011,15(Z1):5-27
Mismatching sets of boundaries present a persistent problem in spatial analysis for many different applications. Dasymetric mapping techniques can be employed to estimate population characteristics of small areas that do not correspond to census enumeration boundaries. Several types of ancillary data have been used in dasymetric mapping but performance is often limited by their relatively coarse resolution and moderate correspondence to actual population counts. The current research examines the performance of using high resolution ancillary data in the form of individual address point datasets which represent the locations of all addressable units within a jurisdiction. The performance of address points was compared with several other techniques, including areal weighting, land cover, imperviousness, road density and nighttime lights. Datasets from 16 counties in Ohio were used in the analysis, reflecting a range of different population densities. For each technique the ancillary data sources were employed to estimate census block group population counts using census tracts as source zones, and the results were compared with the known block group population counts. Results indicate that address points perform significantly better compared with other types of ancillary data. The overall error for all block groups (n = 683) using address points is 4.9% compared with 10.8% for imperviousness, 11.6% for land cover, 13.3% for road density, 18.6% for nighttime lights and 21.2% for areal weighting. Using only residential address points rather than all types of locations further reduces this error to 4.2%. Analysis of the spatial patterns in the relative performance of the various techniques revealed that address points perform particularly well in low density rural areas, which typically present challenges for traditional dasymetric mapping techniques using land cover datasets. These results provide very strong support for the use of address points for small area population estimates. Current developments in the growing availability of address point datasets and the implications for spatial demographic analyses are discussed. 相似文献
3.
Population at risk of crime varies due to the characteristics of a population as well as the crime generator and attractor places where crime is located. This establishes different crime opportunities for different crimes. However, there are very few efforts of modeling structures that derive spatiotemporal population models to allow accurate assessment of population exposure to crime. This study develops population models to depict the spatial distribution of people who have a heightened crime risk for burglaries and robberies. The data used in the study include: Census data as source data for the existing population, Twitter geo-located data, and locations of schools as ancillary data to redistribute the source data more accurately in the space, and finally gridded population and crime data to evaluate the derived population models. To create the models, a density-weighted areal interpolation technique was used that disaggregates the source data in smaller spatial units considering the spatial distribution of the ancillary data. The models were evaluated with validation data that assess the interpolation error and spatial statistics that examine their relationship with the crime types. Our approach derived population models of a finer resolution that can assist in more precise spatial crime analyses and also provide accurate information about crime rates to the public. 相似文献
4.
针对现有空间插值方法对样点空间分布及结构约束考虑较少,难以保真原有空间数据的统计参量等问题,利用Voronoi和Delaunay的相互关系,建立了基于样点分布V-邻域结构的插值控制点自适应生成方法,构建了顾及样点分布结构与分布密度的结构保持空间插值方法。基于中国气象台站日均气温数据的方法验证与对比表明,相比于常用的空间插值算法,本文算法具有更好的结构自适应性,且对原始数据的空间统计特征具有更好的保持性。 相似文献
5.
Land change models are frequently used to analyze current land change processes and possible future developments. However, the outcome of such models is accompanied by uncertainties that have to be taken into account in order to address their reliability for science and decision‐making. While a range of approaches exist that quantify the disagreement of land change maps, the quantification of uncertainty remains a major challenge. The aim of this article is therefore to reveal uncertainties in land change modeling by developing two measures: quantity uncertainty and allocation uncertainty. We choose a Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach for deforestation in Brazil to develop and apply the two measures to the resulting probability surface. Quantity uncertainty describes the uncertainty about the correct number of cells in a land change map assigned to different land change categories and allocation uncertainty expresses the uncertainty about the correct spatial placement of a cell in the land change map. Thus, uncertainty can be quantified even in those cases where no reference data exist. Informing about uncertainty in probabilistic outcomes may be an important asset when land change projections are being used in science and decision‐making and moreover, they may also be further evaluated for other spatial applications. 相似文献
6.
Protected areas are experiencing increased levels of human pressure. To enable appropriate conservation action, it is critical to map and monitor changes in the type and extent of land cover/use and habitat classes, which can be related to human pressures over time. Satellite Earth observation (EO) data and techniques offer the opportunity to detect such changes. Yet association with field information and expert interpretation by ecologists is required to interpret, qualify and link these changes to human pressure. There is thus an urgent need to harmonize the technical background of experts in the field of EO data analysis with the terminology of ecologists, protected area management authorities and policy makers in order to provide meaningful, context-specific value-added EO products. This paper builds on the DPSIR framework, providing a terminology to relate the concepts of state, pressures, and drivers with the application of EO analysis. The type of pressure can be inferred through the detection of changes in state (i.e. changes in land cover and/or habitat type and/or condition). Four broad categories of changes in state are identified, i.e. land cover/habitat conversion, land cover/habitat modification, habitat fragmentation and changes in landscape connectivity, and changes in plant community structure. These categories of change in state can be mapped through EO analyses, with the goal of using expert judgement to relate changes in state to causal direct anthropogenic pressures. Drawing on expert knowledge, a set of protected areas located in diverse socio-ecological contexts and subject to a variety of pressures are analysed to (a) link the four categories of changes in state of land cover/habitats to the drivers (anthropogenic pressure), as relevant to specific target land cover and habitat classes; (b) identify (for pressure mapping) the most appropriate spatial and temporal EO data sources as well as interpretations from ecologists and field data useful in connection with EO data analysis. We provide detailed examples for two protected areas, demonstrating the use of EO data for detection of land cover/habitat change, coupled with expert interpretation to relate such change to specific anthropogenic pressures. We conclude with a discussion of the limitations and feasibility of using EO data and techniques to identify anthropogenic pressures, suggesting additional research efforts required in this direction. 相似文献
7.
Ademola K. Braimoh Takashi Onishi 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2007,9(4):438-446
Land use modeling requires large amounts of data that are typically spatially correlated. This study applies two geostatistical techniques to account for spatial correlation in residential land use change modeling. In the first approach, we combined generalized linear model (GLM) with indicator kriging to estimate the posterior probability of residential development. In the second approach, generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) was used to simultaneously model spatial correlation and regression fixed effects. Spatial agreement between actual and modeled land use change was higher for the GLM incorporating indicator kriging. The GLMM produced more reliable estimates and could be more useful in analyzing the effects of driving factors of land use change for land use planning. 相似文献
8.
M. Heinl J. Walde G. Tappeiner U. Tappeiner 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2009
The study investigates the performance of image classifiers for landscape-scale land cover mapping and the relevance of ancillary data for the classification success in order to assess and to quantify the importance of these components in image classification. Specifically tested are the performance of maximum likelihood classification (MLC), artificial neural networks (ANN) and discriminant analysis (DA) based on Landsat7 ETM+ spectral data in combination with topographic measures and NDVI. ANN produced high accuracies of more than 75% also with limited input information, while MLC and DA produced comparable results only by incorporating ancillary data into the classification process. The superiority of ANN classification was less pronounced on the level of the single land cover classes. The use of ancillary data generally increased classification accuracy and showed a similar potential for increasing classification accuracy than the selection of the classifier. Therefore, a stronger focus on the development of appropriate and optimised sets of input variables is suggested. Also the definition and selection of land cover classes has shown to be crucial and not to be simply adaptable from existing land cover class schemes. A stronger research focus towards discriminating land cover classes by their typical spectral, topographic or seasonal properties is therefore suggested to advance image classification. 相似文献
9.
A novel approach to study vegetation dynamics is introduced, using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) to analyze NDVI time series. The NDVI time series which is nonlinear and nonstationary can be decomposed by EMD into components called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), based on inherent temporal scales. The highest frequency component which has been found to represent noise is subtracted from the original NDVI series; thus smoothing the noisy signal. The different key features describing vegetation phenology have been extracted by analyzing the noise free signal. The lowest frequency component (last IMF) is the trend in the NDVI series. The trend in the series has been identified finding the Sen’s slope of last IMF, and the non-parametric seasonal Mann–Kendall test has been used to confirm the significance of the observed trend. The method has been applied on per–pixel basis to the SPOT Vegetation NDVI product covering Northeast India and surrounding regions for the time span of 1998–2009. Results show that the method has performed well in identifying the pixel clusters with significant trends. Hotspot regions with severe vegetation degeneration have been identified, and the relationship of the observed trends with the expected causative variables such as land use and land cover, topographic relief, and anthropogenic causes has been explored. The spatial locations of these critical regions closely matches with the findings of the previous studies carried out locally in the region, mainly indicating the shifting cultivation practice to be the main cause for land cover change. 相似文献
10.
The Alberta Oil Sands (AOS) is a unique area in Canada undergoing significant disturbance and recovery due to a variety of anthropogenic and natural factors. Accurately quantifying these changes in space and time is important for assessing ecosystem status and trends. In this research, we implemented an approach to combine Landsat time series for the period 1984–2012 with ancillary change datasets to derive detailed change attribution in the AOS. Detected changes were attributed to causes including fire, forest harvest, surface mining, insect damage, flooding, regeneration, and several generic change classes (abrupt/gradual, with/without regeneration) with accuracies ranging from 74% to 100% for classes that occurred frequently. Lower accuracies were found for the generic gradual change classes which accounted for less than 3% of the affected area. Timing of abrupt change events were generally well captured to within ±1 year. For gradual changes timing was less accurate and variable by change type. A land-cover time series was also created to provide information on “from-to” change. A basic accuracy assessment of the land cover showed it to be of moderate accuracy, approximately 69%. Results show that fire was the major cause of change in the region. As expected, surface mine development and related activities have increased since 2000. Insect damage has become a more significant agent of change in the region. Further investigation is required to determine if insect damage is greater than past historical events and to determine if industrial development is linked to the increasing trend observed. 相似文献
11.
针对传统基于空间插值和时间序列上的插值补全形变缺失数据的方法在空间点位分布稀疏、观测值连续缺失以及含有粗差的情况下插补效果不佳的问题,提出了一种基于抗差Kriged Kalman Filter的形变缺失数据插补方法。该方法是一种时空插值的算法,在空间点位分布稀疏时考虑时间上的相关性,在时间上出现连续缺失时考虑其他点位对插补点的影响,以提高插补缺失数据的精度。又将抗差估计融合到Kriged Kalman Filter中以抵抗形变数据中粗差对插补精度的影响。利用模拟数据及天津GPS地面沉降数据进行了实验分析。结果表明:由于该法考虑了监测点的时空相关性以及具有抗差性能,使得插补结果在空间点位稀疏、连续缺失或具有粗差的情况下都具有较高的插补精度。 相似文献
12.
时间序列空间数据可视化中有关问题的研究 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
就土地利用变化可视化这一实例 ,对时间序列空间数据可视化的图形关系分析和图形内插等问题进行了深入的研究 ,得出了土地利用变化中图形关系变化的四种基本形式 ,并针对这四种基本图形的变化情形研究出了相应的内插策略 ;在对现有的图形内插算法研究的基础上 ,提出了基于物理场模型的整体内插算法 ,该算法能够较好地解决文中的图形内插问题。 相似文献
13.
人口统计数据的空间分布化研究 总被引：21，自引：0，他引：21
分析了传统的人口空间分布密度衰减函数－指数型和Gauss型，指出了其应用的局限性，对于有两个中心以上的城市，提出了将人口统计数据空间分布化的思路和方法。 相似文献
14.
地面不均匀沉降可能对城市的发展与人民的安全造成危害，天津市的地面沉降情况尤为严重。针对该问题，本文收集天津市2005—2012年、2016—2017年水准观测数据，以固定水准点位的沉降量、沉降速率、沉降加速率为状态向量，构建卡尔曼滤波模型，对天津市历年的水准观测数据进行滤波；根据滤波后的结果，本文利用多项式加权内插的方法，以距离、沉降速率、沉降加速率信息确定权值大小，对地面沉降情况进行内插；并以中误差作为精度评定参数，比较多种内插方法的精度。通过对内插结果的试验分析发现，2005—2017年天津市地面累计平均沉降量为394.477 5 mm，最大沉降量为1 143.5 mm；主要沉降区域为北辰、大港、塘沽等地区，且随着时间的增长，这些区域呈现漏斗式下沉。试验证明本文结合卡尔曼滤波与多项式加权内插的方式能够较好地反映地面沉降的时空特征分布情况并对未来一段时间的沉降情况进行预测，对天津市的城市发展及建设有一定的参考意义。 相似文献
15.
武夷山市土地利用变化遥感监测分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对近20年来武夷山市土地利用变化信息相对不足的问题,提出运用现代遥感与GIS技术进行武夷山市土地利用变化动态监测的方法。在分析1996年、2005年和2014年3期Landsat影像的基础上,采用监督分类方法提取土地利用信息,然后采用土地利用转移矩阵分析法和动态度分析法,分析了土地利用类型的时空变化情况及发展趋势。结果表明:1996年以来,武夷山市土地利用变化的特点表现为耕地显著增加,而林地明显减少;20年间其他未利用地和城镇的空间变化幅度很大;经济快速发展,旅游业大力发展等是武夷山市土地利用变化的驱动因素。研究结果对武夷山市的生态环境保护以及探究旅游业对土地利用变化的影响有参考价值。 相似文献
16.
《制图学和地理信息科学》2013,40(4):411-423
Over the years many approaches to areal interpolation have been developed and utilized. They range from the simple 2-D areal weighing method which uses only the spatial Z variable being processed, to more sophisticated approaches which use auxiliary variable(s) to provide more specificity to the results. In the research reported here, four promising approaches are implemented and comparatively tested. These approaches have widely varying conceptual foundations, and different auxiliary variables, if used. The areal weighing reflects many earlier methods which assumes uniform distributions of the spatial Z variable, and does not use any auxiliary variable. Tobler's pycnophylactic method uses a volumetric preservation approach, which assumes spatial Z variable is heterogeneously distributed, but does not use any auxiliary variable. The traditional dasymetric method of Wright is used with remote sensing spectral data of land use. Xie's road network hierarchically weighted interpolation uses the road network as the auxiliary variable, and assumes that population density is related to the class of the road, and to the density of the road network. The research design implemented here uses Census population distributions at different levels in the hierarchy as the source and target variables analyzed. The source zone population is taken at the Census Tract level, and the target zones are specified at the Census Block Group level in the hierarchy. The first two tests use only the Census population Z data, and no auxiliary variables, whereas the next uses remotely sensed land use data as the auxiliary data variable, and the fourth test utilizes the road network hierarchy as the auxiliary variable. The paper reports on the findings from these tests, and then interprets them in a spatial setting in terms of accuracy and effectiveness. This research points to the network method as the most accurate of the areal interpolation methods tested in this research. 相似文献
17.
Geospatial presentation of habitat has become a key issue for planning conservation and management of any ecosystem. Hokersar wetland, one of the best resorts of migratory waterfowl in Kashmir, is under anthropogenic pressure and siltation due to floods. This has resulted in the degradation and change in the habitat quality of varied aquatic flora and fauna. Moreover, the seasonal changes affect the water level and land cover characteristics of the landscape. In the present study temporal mapping of the wetland has been carried out using the data sets for the autumn and spring seasons to assess the land cove/land use dynamics. The temporal change analysis, in the urban sprawl and the wetland, has been carried out to assess the rate of changes in the wetland and its environs. The wetland initially comprised of patch of marshy waterfowl habitat with some open water bodies. It has been fragmented into a large number of land uses because of anthropogenic activities. The increase in the settlement has been observed proportionate to the rate of fragmentation in the wetland. This study has created an information base, which will help to design conservation schemes for long term maintenance of the wetland. 相似文献
18.
Bayesian networks and agent-based modeling approach for urban land-use and population density change: a BNAS model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Land-use change models grounded in complexity theory such as agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly being used to examine evolving urban systems. The objective of this study is to develop a spatial model that simulates land-use change under the influence of human land-use choice behavior. This is achieved by integrating the key physical and social drivers of land-use change using Bayesian networks (BNs) coupled with agent-based modeling. The BNAS model, integrated Bayesian network–based agent system, presented in this study uses geographic information systems, ABMs, BNs, and influence diagram principles to model population change on an irregular spatial structure. The model is parameterized with historical data and then used to simulate 20 years of future population and land-use change for the City of Surrey, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation results identify feasible new urban areas for development around the main transportation corridors. The obtained new development areas and the projected population trajectories with the“what-if” scenario capabilities can provide insights into urban planners for better and more informed land-use policy or decision-making processes. 相似文献
19.
This study adopts a near real‐time space‐time cube approach to portray a dynamic urban air pollution scenario across space and time. Originating from time geography, space‐time cubes provide an approach to integrate spatial and temporal air pollution information into a 3D space. The base of the cube represents the variation of air pollution in a 2D geographical space while the height represents time. This way, the changes of pollution over time can be described by the different component layers of the cube from the base up. The diurnal ambient ozone (O3) pollution in Houston, Texas is modeled in this study using the space‐time air pollution cube. Two methods, land use regression (LUR) modeling and spatial interpolation, were applied to build the hourly component layers for the air pollution cube. It was found that the LUR modeling performed better than the spatial interpolation in predicting air pollution level. With the availability of real‐time air pollution data, this approach can be extended to produce real‐time air pollution cube is for more accurate air pollution measurement across space and time, which can provide important support to studies in epidemiology, health geography, and environmental regulation. 相似文献
20.
An extensive land cover change was triggered by a series of typhoons, especially Typhoon Morakot in 2009 in Taiwan. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) series from multiple satellite images were applied to monitor the change processes of land cover. This study applied spatiotemporal analysis tools, including empirical orthogonal functions (EOF), and multiple variograms in analyzing space–time NDVI data, and detected the effects of large chronological disturbances in the characteristics of land cover changes. Spatiotemporal analysis delineated the temporal patterns and spatial variability of NDVI caused by these large typhoons. Results showed that mean of NDVI decreased but spatial variablity of NDVI increased after typhoons in the study area. The EOF can clarify the major component of NDVI variations and identify the core area of the NDVI changes. Various approaches showed consistent results that Typhoon Morakot significantly lowered the NDVI in land cover change process. Furthermore, the spatiotemporal analysis is an effective monitoring tool, which advocates the use of the index for the quantification of land cover change and resilience. 相似文献