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1.
June-Yi Lee Bin Wang I.-S. Kang J. Shukla A. Kumar J.-S. Kug J. K. E. Schemm J.-J. Luo T. Yamagata X. Fu O. Alves B. Stern T. Rosati C.-K. Park 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(2-3):267-283
Given observed initial conditions, how well do coupled atmosphere–ocean models predict precipitation climatology with 1-month lead forecast? And how do the models’ biases in climatology in turn affect prediction of seasonal anomalies? We address these questions based on analysis of 1-month lead retrospective predictions for 21 years of 1981–2001 made by 13 state-of-the-art coupled climate models and their multi-model ensemble (MME). The evaluation of the precipitation climatology is based on a newly designed metrics that consists of the annual mean, the solstitial mode and equinoctial asymmetric mode of the annual cycle, and the rainy season characteristics. We find that the 1-month lead seasonal prediction made by the 13-model ensemble has skills that are much higher than those in individual model ensemble predictions and approached to those in the ERA-40 and NCEP-2 reanalysis in terms of both the precipitation climatology and seasonal anomalies. We also demonstrate that the skill for individual coupled models in predicting seasonal precipitation anomalies is positively correlated with its performances on prediction of the annual mean and annual cycle of precipitation. In addition, the seasonal prediction skill for the tropical SST anomalies, which are the major predictability source of monsoon precipitation in the current coupled models, is closely link to the models’ ability in simulating the SST mean state. Correction of the inherent bias in the mean state is critical for improving the long-lead seasonal prediction. Most individual coupled models reproduce realistically the long-term annual mean precipitation and the first annual cycle (solstitial mode), but they have difficulty in capturing the second annual (equinoctial asymmetric) mode faithfully, especially over the Indian Ocean (IO) and Western North Pacific (WNP) where the seasonal cycle in SST has significant biases. The coupled models replicate the monsoon rain domains very well except in the East Asian subtropical monsoon and the tropical WNP summer monsoon regions. The models also capture the gross features of the seasonal march of the rainy season including onset and withdraw of the Asian–Australian monsoon system over four major sub-domains, but striking deficiencies in the coupled model predictions are observed over the South China Sea and WNP region, where considerable biases exist in both the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle and the summer precipitation amount and its interannual variability are underestimated. 相似文献
2.
Since most previous attempts to establish monsoon indices have been limited to specific regions, they have lacked the applicability to universally describe the global monsoon domain. In this paper, we first review the history of global monsoon study and then identify the climatology of global precipitation associated with major systems of the atmospheric general circulation. A new index, based on the annual and semiannual harmonic precipitation rate difference between two local calendar maximal and minimal precipitation pentads, is used to identify the global monsoon domain focusing on where experienced and what caused the climatic dry-wet alteration. The global monsoon domain is defined by the regions where two pentad-mean precipitation difference exceeds 4 mm ?day?1, which is also influenced by the low-level prevailing wind reversal associated with the cross-equatorial flow. This definition not only confirmed previous results of the classical global monsoon domain from the tropical Africa to Asia-Australia and non-classical monsoon region in the tropical America but also solved an issue of missing local summer monsoon spots. 相似文献
3.
4.
Reduction of systematic biases in regional climate downscaling through ensemble forcing 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Simulations of the East Asian summer monsoon for the period of 1979–2001 were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by three reanalysis datasets (NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The experiments forced by different reanalysis data exhibited remarkable differences, primarily caused by uncertainties in the lateral boundary (LB) moisture fluxes over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea. The climatological mean water vapor convergence into the model domain computed from ERA-40 was about 24% higher than that from the NCEP-R2 reanalysis. We demonstrate that using the ensemble mean of NCEP-R2, ERA-40, and JRA-25 as LB forcing considerably reduced the biases in the model simulation. The use of ensemble forcing improved the performance in simulated mean circulation and precipitation, inter-annual variation in seasonal precipitation, and daily precipitation. The model simulated precipitation was superior to that in the reanalysis in both climatology and year-to-year variations, indicating the added value of dynamic downscaling. The results suggest that models having better performance under one set of LB forcing might worsen when another set of reanalysis data is used as LB forcing. Use of ensemble mean LB forcing for assessing regional climate model performance is recommended. 相似文献
5.
Some annual variation characteristics for the Northern Hemispheric monthly mean precipitation fields 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Tang Maocang 《大气科学进展》1989,6(2):186-201
By the utilization of monthly precipitation data from all stations in the Northern Hemisphere annexed to the “World Survey of climatology, Vol. 1-15, the distributions of the maximum precipitation months (MPM), the annual relative precipitation (ARP) and the monthly relative precipitation (percent of annual) in January and July are respectively mapped. Moreover the distributions of intermonthly relative precipitation variabilities from January to December are plotted as well. From these figures, the precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may be classified into three types (continental, oceanic and transitional types) and 17 regions. The precipitation regime may also be divided into two patterns, the global and regional patterns. The global pattern consists of planetary front system and ITCZ and its inter-monthly variation shows the north-and-south shift of the rain belt; the regional pattern consists of the sea-land monsoon and plateau monsoon regime, in which the inter-monthly variation of rain belt shows a east- and-west shift. 相似文献
6.
A high-resolution 43-year atmospheric hindcast for South America generated with the MPI regional model 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Gabriel Silvestri Carolina Vera Daniela Jacob Susanne Pfeifer Claas Teichmann 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(5):693-709
An evaluation of the present-day climate in South America simulated by the MPI atmospheric limited area model, REMO, is made.
The model dataset was generated by dynamical downscaling from the ECMWF-ERA40 reanalysis and compared to in-situ observations.
The model is able to reproduce the low-level summer monsoon circulation but it has some deficiencies in representing the South
American Low-Level Jet structure. At upper levels, summer circulation features like the Bolivian High and the associated subtropical
jet are well simulated by the model. Sea-level pressure fields are in general well represented by REMO. The model exhibits
reasonable skill in representing the general features of the mean seasonal cycle of precipitation. Nevertheless, there is
a systematic overestimation of precipitation in both tropical and subtropical regions. Differences between observed and modeled
temperature are smaller than 1.5°C over most of the continent, excepting during spring when those differences are quite large.
Results also show that the dynamical downscaling performed using REMO introduces some enhancement of the global reanalysis
especially in temperature at the tropical regions during the warm season and in precipitation in both the subtropics and extratropics.
It is then concluded that REMO can be a useful tool for regional downscaling of global simulations of present and future climates. 相似文献
7.
Diagnostic metrics for evaluation of annual and diurnal cycles 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Two sets of diagnostic metrics are proposed for evaluation of global models?? simulation of annual and diurnal cycles of precipitation. The metrics for the annual variation include the annual mean, the solstice and equinoctial asymmetric modes of the annual cycle (AC), and the global monsoon precipitation domain and intensity. The metrics for the diurnal variation include the diurnal range, the land?Csea contrast and transition modes of the diurnal cycle (DC), and the diurnal peak propagation in coastal regions. The proposed modes for the AC and DC represent faithfully the first two leading empirical orthogonal functions and explain, respectively, 82% of the total annual variance and 87% of the total diurnal variance over the globe between 45°S and 45°N. The simulated AC and DC by the 20-km-mesh MRI/JMA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are in a wide-ranging agreement with observations; the model considerably outperforms any individual AMIP II GCMs and has comparable performance to 12-AMIP II model ensemble simulation measured by Pearson??s pattern correlation coefficient. Comparison of four versions of the MRI/JMA AGCM with increasing resolution (180, 120, 60, and 20?km) reveals that the 20-km version reproduces the most realistic annual and diurnal cycles. However, the improved performance is not a linear function of the resolution. Marked improvement of the simulated DC (AC) occurs at the resolution of 60?km (20?km). The results suggest that better represented parameterizations that are adequately tuned to increased resolutions may improve models?? simulation on the forced responses. The common deficiency in representing the monsoon domains suggests the models having difficulty in replicating annual march of the Subtropical Highs that is largely driven by prominent east-west land?Cocean thermal contrast. Note that the 20-km model reproduces realistic diurnal cycle, but fails to capture realistic Madden-Julian Oscillation. 相似文献
8.
We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean” favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced. 相似文献
9.
In this paper, the response of global monsoon to changes in orbital forcing is investigated using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model with an emphasis on relative roles of precession and obliquity changes. When precession decreases, there are inter-hemispheric asymmetric responses in monsoonal precipitation, featuring a significant increase over most parts of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon regions and a decrease over the Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoon regions. In contrast, when obliquity increases, global monsoon is enhanced except for the American monsoon. Dynamic effects (caused by changes in winds with humidity unchanged) dominate the monsoonal precipitation response to both precession and obliquity forcing, while thermodynamic effects (caused by changes in humidity with winds unchanged) is related to the northward extension of the North African summer monsoon. During minimum precession, the seasonal cycle of tropical precipitation is advanced with respect to the maximum precession. The rainfall increase in the transitional season (April-June in the NH and October-December in the SH) is dominated by the dynamic component. From an energetics perspective, the southward (northward) cross-equatorial energy transport during April-June (October-December) corresponds to a northward (southward) shift of tropical precipitation, which results in a seasonal advance in the migration of tropical precipitation. Nonetheless, there is no significant change in the seasonal cycle in response to obliquity forcing.
相似文献10.
Mike Hulme 《Climate Dynamics》1992,7(2):57-72
Previous evaluations of model precipitation fields have suffered from two weaknesses; they have used only mean observed climatologies which have prevented an explicit evaluation of interannual variability, and they have generally failed to quantify the significance of differences between model and observed fields. To rectify these weaknesses, a global precipitation climatology is required which is designed with model evaluation in mind. This paper describes such a climatology representative of the period 1951–80. The climatology is based on historical gauge-precipitation measurements from over 2500 land-based station time series representing over 28% of the Earth's surface. It is necessarily biased towards terrestrial areas. The climatology (CRU5180) is derived from month-by-month gridbox precipitation estimates at 5° resolution. Although other global precipitation climatologies exist, this is the first one to have used a consistent reference period for each station, and to include the details of interannual variability. Fields of mean seasonal and annual precipitation and mean temporal variability are presented, and the variability of global-mean precipitation over 1951–80 assessed. The resulting mean monthly global precipitation fields are compared briefly with two other observed climatologies used for model evaluation, those prepared by Jaeger and Legates and Willmott. The global and hemispheric means, mean seasonal cycles, and spatial patterns of the three cimatologies are compared. Although based on a smaller set of stations than Legates and Willmott, the CRU5180 precipitation estimates agree closely with their uncorrected climatology. 相似文献
11.
J. A. Marengo I. F. A. Cavalcanti P. Satyamurty I. Trosnikov C. A. Nobre J. P. Bonatti H. Camargo G. Sampaio M. B. Sanches A. O. Manzi C. A. C. Castro C. D'Almeida L. P. Pezzi L. Candido 《Climate Dynamics》2003,21(5-6):459-475
This is a study of the annual and interannual variability of regional rainfall produced by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies/Center for Ocean, Land and Atmospheric Studies (CPTEC/COLA) atmospheric global climate model. An evaluation is made of a 9-member ensemble run of the model forced by observed global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the 10-year period 1982–1991. The Brier skill score and, Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) are used to assess the predictability of rainfall and to validate rainfall simulations, in several regions world wide. In general, the annual cycle of precipitation is well simulated by the model for several continental and oceanic regions in the tropics and mid latitudes. Interannual variability of rainfall during the peak rainy season is realistically simulated in Northeast Brazil, Amazonia, central Chile, and southern Argentina–Uruguay, Eastern Africa, and tropical Pacific regions, where the model shows good skill. Some regions, such as northwest Peru–Ecuador, and southern Brazil exhibit a realistic simulation of rainfall anomalies associated with extreme El Niño warming conditions, while in years with neutral or La Niña conditions, the agreement between observed and simulated rainfall anomalies is not always present. In the monsoon regions of the world and in southern Africa, even though the model reproduces the annual cycle of rainfall, the skill of the model is low for the simulation of the interannual variability. This is indicative of mechanisms other than the external SST forcing, such as the effect of land–surface moisture and snow feedbacks or the representation of sub-grid scale processes, indicating the important role of factors other than external boundary forcing. The model captures the well-known signatures of rainfall anomalies of El Niño in 1982–83 and 1986–87, indicating its sensitivity to strong external forcing. In normal years, internal climate variability can affect the predictability of climate in some regions, especially in monsoon areas of the world. 相似文献
12.
T. N. Krishnamurti Mukul Tewari Ed Bensman Wei Han Zhan Zhang William K. M. Lau 《大气科学进展》1999,16(2):159-182
1.IntroductionThispaperexploresanensembleforecaststrategyforthelarge--scaletropicalpredictionproblem.Thisisgeneralizedfromarecentstudyontheuseofempiricalorthogonalfunction(EOF)--basedperturbationsforhurricanetrackensembleforecasts,(ZhangandKrishnamur... 相似文献
13.
Results are first presented from an analysis of a global coupled climate model regarding changes in future mean and variability of south Asian monsoon precipitation due to increased atmospheric CO2 for doubled (2 × CO2) and quadrupled (4 × CO2) present-day amounts. Results from the coupled model show that, in agreement with previous studies, mean area-averaged south Asian monsoon precipitation increases with greater CO2 concentrations, as does the interannual variability. Mechanisms producing these changes are then examined in a series of AMIP2-style sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric model (taken from the coupled model) run with specified SSTs. Three sets of ensemble experiments are run with SST anomalies superimposed on the AMIP2 SSTs from 1979–97: (1) anomalously warm Indian Ocean SSTs, (2) anomalously warm Pacific Ocean SSTs, and (3) anomalously warm Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs. Results from these experiments show that the greater mean monsoon precipitation is due to increased moisture source from the warmer Indian Ocean. Increased south Asian monsoon interannual variability is primarily due to warmer Pacific Ocean SSTs with enhanced evaporation variability, with the warmer Indian Ocean SSTs a contributing but secondary factor. That is, for a given interannual tropical Pacific SST fluctuation with warmer mean SSTs in the future climate, there is enhanced evaporation and precipitation variability that is communicated via the Walker Circulation in the atmosphere to the south Asian monsoon to increase interannual precipitation variability there. This enhanced monsoon variability occurs even with no change in interannual SST variability in the tropical Pacific. 相似文献
14.
Future change of global monsoon in the CMIP5 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
This study investigates future changes of Global Monsoon (GM) under anthropogenic global warming using 20 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) by comparing two runs: the historical run for 1850–2005 and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 run for 2006–2100. A metrics for evaluation of models’ performance on GM is designed to document performance for 1980–2005 and best four models are selected. The four best models’ multi-model ensemble (B4MME) projects the following changes in the twenty-first century under the RCP4.5 scenario. (1) Monsoon domain will not change appreciably but land monsoon domain over Asia tends to expand westward by 10.6 %. (2) The annual mean and range of GM precipitation and the percentage of local summer rainfall will all amplify at a significant level over most of the global region, both over land and over ocean. (3) There will be a more prominent northern-southern hemispheric asymmetry and eastern-western hemispheric asymmetry. (4) Northern Hemisphere (NH) monsoon onset will be advanced and withdrawal will be delayed. (5) Changes in monsoon precipitation exhibits huge differences between the NH and the Southern hemisphere (SH). The NH monsoon precipitation will increase significantly due to increase in temperature difference between the NH and SH, significant enhancement of the Hadley circulation, and atmospheric moistening, against stabilization of troposphere. There is a slight decrease of the Walker circulation but not significant against the inter-model spread. There are important differences between the CMIP 3 and CMIP5 results which are discussed in detail. 相似文献
15.
M. Latif K. Sperber J. Arblaster P. Braconnot D. Chen A. Colman U. Cubasch C. Cooper P. Delecluse D. Dewitt L. Fairhead G. Flato T. Hogan M. Ji M. Kimoto A. Kitoh T. Knutson H. Le Treut T. Li S. Manabe O. Marti C. Mechoso G. Meehl S. Power E. Roeckner J. Sirven L. Terray A. Vintzileos R. Voß B. Wang W. Washington I. Yoshikawa J. Yu S. Zebiak 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):255-276
An ensemble of twenty four coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been compared with respect to their performance in the tropical Pacific. The coupled models span a large portion of the parameter space and differ in many respects. The intercomparison includes TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere)-type models consisting of high-resolution tropical ocean models and coarse-resolution global atmosphere models, coarse-resolution global coupled models, and a few global coupled models with high resolution in the equatorial region in their ocean components. The performance of the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability are investigated. The primary quantity analysed is sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the evolution of interannual heat content variations in the tropical Pacific and the relationship between the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific to fluctuations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon are investigated. The results can be summarised as follows: almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology, although some improvements are found relative to earlier intercomparison studies. Only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically. In particular, many models overestimate the variability in the western equatorial Pacific and underestimate the SST variability in the east. The evolution of interannual heat content variations is similar to that observed in almost all models. Finally, the majority of the models show a strong connection between ENSO and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon. 相似文献
16.
Major modes of short-term climate variability in the newly developed NUIST Earth System Model (NESM) 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jian Cao Bin Wang Baoqiang Xiang Juan Li Tianjie Wu Xiouhua Fu Liguang Wu Jinzhong Min 《大气科学进展》2015,32(5):585-600
A coupled earth system model(ESM) has been developed at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(NUIST) by using version 5.3 of the European Centre Hamburg Model(ECHAM), version 3.4 of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean(NEMO), and version 4.1 of the Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE). The model is referred to as NUIST ESM1(NESM1). Comprehensive and quantitative metrics are used to assess the model's major modes of climate variability most relevant to subseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction. The model's assessment is placed in a multi-model framework. The model yields a realistic annual mean and annual cycle of equatorial SST, and a reasonably realistic precipitation climatology, but has difficulty in capturing the spring–fall asymmetry and monsoon precipitation domains. The ENSO mode is reproduced well with respect to its spatial structure, power spectrum, phase locking to the annual cycle, and spatial structures of the central Pacific(CP)-ENSO and eastern Pacific(EP)-ENSO; however, the equatorial SST variability,biennial component of ENSO, and the amplitude of CP-ENSO are overestimated. The model captures realistic intraseasonal variability patterns, the vertical-zonal structures of the first two leading predictable modes of Madden–Julian Oscillation(MJO), and its eastward propagation; but the simulated MJO speed is significantly slower than observed. Compared with the T42 version, the high resolution version(T159) demonstrates improved simulation with respect to the climatology, interannual variance, monsoon–ENSO lead–lag correlation, spatial structures of the leading mode of the Asian–Australian monsoon rainfall variability, and the eastward propagation of the MJO. 相似文献
17.
This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979–2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981–2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081–2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the inter-tropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MIROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS’s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario. 相似文献
18.
Trends in precipitation are critical to water resources. Considerable uncertainty remains concerning the trends of regional precipitation in response to global warming and their controlling mechanisms. Here, we use an interannual difference method to derive trends of regional precipitation from GPCP(Global Precipitation Climatology Project) data and MERRA(ModernEra Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis in the near-global domain of 60?S–60?N during a major global warming period of 1979–2013. We find that trends of regional annual precipitation are primarily driven by changes in the top 30% heavy precipitation events, which in turn are controlled by changes in precipitable water in response to global warming, i.e., by thermodynamic processes. Significant drying trends are found in most parts of the U.S. and eastern Canada,the Middle East, and eastern South America, while significant increases in precipitation occur in northern Australia, southern Africa, western India and western China. In addition, as the climate warms there are extensive enhancements and expansions of the three major tropical precipitation centers–the Maritime Continent, Central America, and tropical Africa–leading to the observed widening of Hadley cells and a significant strengthening of the global hydrological cycle. 相似文献
19.
Using observation and reanaiysis data throughout 1961-1990, the East Asian surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure climatology as simulated by seven fully coupled atmosphere-ocean models, namely CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3, GFDL-R30, HadCM3, and NCARPCM, axe systematically evaluated in this study. It is indicated that the above models can successfully reproduce the annual and seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation climatology in East Asia, with relatively good performance for boreal autumn and annual mean. The models‘ ability to simulate surface air temperature is more reliable than precipitation. In addition, the models can dependably capture the geographical distribution pattern of annual, boreal winter, spring and autumn sea level pressure in East Asia. In contrast, relatively large simulation errors axe displayed when simulated boreal summer sea level pressure is compaxed with reanalysis data in East Asia. It is revealed that the simulation errors for surface air temperature, precipitation and sea level pressure axe generally large over and around the Tibetan Plateau. No individual model is best in every aspect. As a whole, the ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HadCM3 performances axe much better, whereas the CGCM2 is relatively poorer in East Asia. Additionally, the seven-model ensemble mean usually shows a relatively high reliability. 相似文献
20.
The climate and natural variability of the large-scale stratospheric circulation simulated by a newly developed general circulation model are evaluated against available global observations. The simulation consisted of a 30-year annual cycle integration performed with a comprehensive model of the troposphere and stratosphere. The observations consisted of a 15-year dataset from global operational analyses of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model evaluation concentrates on the simulation of the evolution of the extratropical stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres. The December–February climatology of the observed zonal mean winter circulation is found to be reasonably well captured by the model, although in the Northern Hemisphere upper stratosphere the simulated westerly winds are systematically stronger and a cold bias is apparent in the polar stratosphere. This Northern Hemisphere stratospheric cold bias virtually disappears during spring (March–May), consistent with a realistic simulation of the spring weakening of the mean westerly winds in the model. A considerable amount of monthly interannual variability is also found in the simulation in the Northern Hemisphere in late winter and early spring. The simulated interannual variability is predominantly caused by polar warmings of the stratosphere, in agreement with observations. The breakdown of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex appears therefore to occur in a realistic way in the model. However, in early winter the model severely underestimates the interannual variability, especially in the upper troposphere. The Southern Hemisphere winter (June–August) zonal mean temperature is systematically colder in the model, and the simulated winds are somewhat too strong in the upper stratosphere. Contrary to the results for the Northern Hemisphere spring, this model cold bias worsens during the Southern Hemisphere spring (September–November). Significant discrepancies between the model results and the observations are therefore found during the breakdown of the Southern Hemisphere polar vortex. For instance, the simulated Southern Hemisphere stratosphere westerly jet continuously decreases in intensity more or less in situ from June to November, while the observed stratospheric jet moves downward and poleward.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–8 Sept. 1995 under the auspice of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil. 相似文献