共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
1.
Aleh Cherp Jessica Jewell Vadim Vinichenko Nico Bauer Enrica De Cian 《Climatic change》2016,136(1):83-94
Energy security is one of the main drivers of energy policies. Understanding energy security implications of long-term scenarios is crucial for informed policy making, especially with respect to transformations of energy systems required to stabilize climate change. This paper evaluates energy security under several global energy scenarios, modeled in the REMIND and WITCH integrated assessment models. The paper examines the effects of long-term climate policies on energy security under different assumptions about GDP growth and fossil fuel availability. It uses a systematic energy security assessment framework and a set of global and regional indicators for risks associated with energy trade and resilience associated with diversity of energy options. The analysis shows that climate policies significantly reduce the risks and increase the resilience of energy systems in the first half of the century. Climate policies also make energy supply, energy mix, and energy trade less dependent upon assumptions of fossil resource availability and GDP growth, and thus more predictable than in the baseline scenarios. 相似文献
2.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):88-108
Distributive justice in climate change has been of interest both to the ethics and to the climate policy communities, but the two have remained relatively isolated. By combining an applied ethics approach with a focus on the details of a wide range of proposed international climate policies, this article proposes two arguments. First, three categories of proposals are identified, each characterized by its assumptions about the nature of the ‘problem’ of climate change, the burdens that this problem imposes, and its application of distribution rules. Each category presents potential implications for distributive justice. The second, related, argument is that assumptions about technology, sovereignty, substitution and public perceptions of ethics shape the distributive justice outcomes of proposed policies even though these areas have largely been overlooked in discussions of the subject in either literature. The final lesson of this study is that the definition, measurement and distribution of burdens are all critical variables for distributive justice in climate policy. 相似文献
3.
This paper uses the MERGE integrated assessment model to identify the least-cost mitigation strategy for achieving a range of climate policies. Mitigation is measured in terms of GDP foregone. This is not a benefit-cost analysis. No attempt is made to calculate the reduction in damages brought about by a particular policy. Assumptions are varied regarding the availability of energy-producing and energy-using technologies. We find pathways with substantial reductions in temperature change, with the cost of reductions varying significantly, depending on policy and technology assumptions. The set of scenarios elucidates the potential energy system transformation demands that could be placed on society. We find that policy that allows for “overshoot” of a radiative forcing target during the century results in lower costs, but also a higher temperature at the end of the century. We explore the implications of the costs and availability of key mitigation technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy, and their combination, known as BECS, as well as nuclear and energy efficiency. The role of “negative emissions” via BECS in particular is examined. Finally, we demonstrate the implications of nationally adopted emissions timetables based on articulated goals as a counterpoint to a global stabilization approach. 相似文献
4.
Matthias G. W. Schmidt Alexander Lorenz Hermann Held Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):783-791
We start from the observation that climate targets under uncertainty should be interpreted as safety constraints on the probability of crossing a certain threshold, such as 2??C global warming. We then highlight, by ways of a simple example, that cost-effectiveness analysis for such probabilistic targets leads to major conceptual problems if learning about uncertainty is taken into account and the target is fixed. Current target proposals presumably imply that targets should be revised in the light of new information. Taking this into account amounts to formalizing how targets should be chosen, a question that was avoided by cost-effectiveness analysis. One way is to perform a full-fledged cost-benefit analysis including some kind of monetary damage function. We propose multi-criteria decision analysis including a target-based risk metric as an alternative that is more explicite in its assumptions and more closely based on given targets. 相似文献
5.
《Climate Policy》2013,13(6):607-612
The Low-Carbon Society (LCS) research project (Strachan et al., 2008a) is examined for its insights about the scale, nature and timing of the deployment of low-carbon technologies. In addition to ‘carbon price only’ policies, other incentives and demand-side efforts are needed in order to embed climate policies into broader development approaches. The question of what constitutes transition pathways is considered. Fundamental institutional, individual and social changes are needed to accompany economic and technological change as energy is embedded in overall development patterns. The cost assessment of decarbonization policies may be too optimistic if it is only considered as the final outcome of a LCS, and if the inevitable hindrances and setbacks along the transition pathway are disregarded. The significance of transition costs is highlighted, together with their causes: social and short- and medium-term economic costs and adjustments in macroeconomic dynamics. Although the overall welfare costs of LCS are likely to be smaller than the benefits (including the co-benefits), a clear and realistic understanding of potential transition difficulties is necessary in order to define the robust policy mix needed to underpin it. 相似文献
6.
《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(1):25-36
The transition to a low carbon energy system must occur in the context of numerous uncertainties that occur at all scales, from the extent of the carbon reduction required through to the technologies and policies which will bring the reductions about. Against this background, the Tyndall Decarbonisation Scenarios project has sought to develop a new approach for the generation of energy scenarios, which focuses explicitly upon the transition to a low carbon energy system. Using a backcasting approach, the scenarios explore areas of uncertainty in relation to a low carbon energy system and how the low carbon transition may be brought about. 相似文献
7.
The dominant assumption in economic models of climate policy remains that adaptation will be implemented in an optimal manner. There are, however, several reasons why optimal levels of adaptation may not be attainable. This paper investigates the effects of suboptimal levels of adaptation caused by different types of adaptation restrictions, on the composition and level of climate change costs and on welfare. We find that especially restrictions to the effectiveness of adaptation at more extreme levels of climate change can be very harmful. Furthermore we show that the potential of mitigation to offset suboptimal adaptation varies from being essential in case adaptation becomes ineffective at higher temperature increases, to being largely ineffective in case of short-term inaction. However, in all cases the short-term recommendation is to increase mitigation levels slightly above what is normally recommended, and to keep mitigation policies flexible enough to be able to respond when adaptation restrictions become more prominent. It is clear that by reducing adaptation restrictions, in combination with adjusting the optimal level of mitigation may keep the costs of adaptation restrictions limited, and thus generally it is very harmful to ignore existing restrictions on adaptation when devising (efficient) climate policies. 相似文献
8.
Climate benefits of changing diet 总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0
Elke Stehfest Lex Bouwman Detlef P. van Vuuren Michel G. J. den Elzen Bas Eickhout Pavel Kabat 《Climatic change》2009,95(1-2):83-102
Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in the adverse health effects of beef and pork have lead to a revision of meat consumption recommendations. Here, we explored the potential impact of dietary changes on achieving ambitious climate stabilization levels. By using an integrated assessment model, we found a global food transition to less meat, or even a complete switch to plant-based protein food to have a dramatic effect on land use. Up to 2,700 Mha of pasture and 100 Mha of cropland could be abandoned, resulting in a large carbon uptake from regrowing vegetation. Additionally, methane and nitrous oxide emission would be reduced substantially. A global transition to a low meat-diet as recommended for health reasons would reduce the mitigation costs to achieve a 450 ppm CO2-eq. stabilisation target by about 50% in 2050 compared to the reference case. Dietary changes could therefore not only create substantial benefits for human health and global land use, but can also play an important role in future climate change mitigation policies. 相似文献
9.
Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2 °C. However, there is no consensus on both questions “Is the 2 °C target achievable?” and “What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?”. This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2 °C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an “uncertainties and decisions tree”, linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change. 相似文献
10.
This paper reviews existing policy responses to rapid climate change and examines possible assumptions that underpin those responses. The analysis demonstrates that current policy responses to rapid climate change make unwarranted epistemological and ethical assumptions. Specifically, we argue that the assumptions about the possibility of predicting the climate system including tipping points linked to utilitarian ethical assumptions in the form of cost–benefit analysis are open to contestation and should be subject to global public debate. The paper considers alternative normative approaches and briefly proposes complementary policy responses. 相似文献
11.
国际气候治理中的公正转型议题涉及就业、关乎民生,是各国都很关注的政策领域之一,因此也被视为是支持应对气候变化的一种重要社会机制。近年来,国际社会积极推动建设气候治理公正转型制度体系,各国也在所制定的国家应对气候变化战略和规划中越来越多地提出与公正转型和就业相关的目标与措施。公正转型议题在国际气候治理进程中主流化的趋势给中国参与和引领全球气候治理带来了新的机遇与挑战。中国应加强关于该问题的基础性研究;在国内应对气候变化的行动中充分考虑该问题,保障受影响就业群体获得社会公正对待;总结具体实践经验;在政策领域协调上做好新的布局;积极参与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下公正转型治理体系的构建中。 相似文献
12.
Following a multi-scenario framework based on the technology assumptions proposed by the 27th Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-27), our analysis focuses on analyzing the impacts of key technology assumptions on climate policies, including the interdependencies of different technological options. Each scenario may be considered as either a possible state of nature upon which one has no influence, each scenario thus dictating the availability (or non availability) of some subset of the technology groups, or as an opportunity for society, by its own actions and policies, to influence the availability of said technology group. The main insights obtained from the assessment show the prominent role of bioenergy as a means to abate greenhouse gas emissions, irrespective of other technological developments, while the role of the other technologies (wind and solar, carbon capture and sequestration, nuclear) are more dependent of one another. It appears that CCS may play a sort of “backstop” role: it compensates for a lower contribution of solar and wind, or of nuclear. This means that an increased social acceptability of one (or all) of these three sets of technology should be at the heart of future climate policies. The costs caused by the adaptation of electricity networks to accommodate a high fraction of intermittent sources would deserve more attention in future research. 相似文献
13.
《Climate Policy》2003
This paper aims at clarifying some conceptual flaws blurring the equity-efficiency debates involved in the setting of objectives of GHGs emissions control beyond 2012. To this end, it carries out numerical experiments that test the viability of agreements grounded on two contrasting target allocation rules: a “Soft Landing” rule prolonging a Kyoto-type agreement; and a “Convergence” rule progressively re-directing Kyoto towards a per capita emissions endowment. The numerical results demonstrate the sensitivity of the impact to the metric used to assess it and to assumptions regarding the interaction between the cap and trade system and accompanying measures such as domestic policies (characterised as simple fiscal reforms) and international public funding. In a further step, the paper derives some lessons about how to reconcile two political imperatives: (a) an ex-post or “consequentialist” approach to equity, which however cannot fully avoid relying on ex-ante rules, and (b) the necessity of an agreement on such stable ex-ante rules to set up emissions targets and efficient emissions trading. Such reconciliation suggests a coming back to the environment/development “Gordian Knot”, which underpins all global environmental affairs since the Stockholm Conference in 1972: the equity-efficiency dilemma has to be set in a broader sustainable development perspective whereby climate policies are integrated with development priorities of the poorest countries so as to create a leverage effect on development. 相似文献
14.
Keywan Riahi Shilpa Rao Volker Krey Cheolhung Cho Vadim Chirkov Guenther Fischer Georg Kindermann Nebojsa Nakicenovic Peter Rafaj 《Climatic change》2011,109(1-2):33-57
This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m2). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution. 相似文献
15.
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unwilling to implement mitigation strategies, at least in the short term, and no agreement on an ambitious global stabilisation target has yet been reached. It is thus likely that international climate policies will be characterized by a high degree of uncertainty over the stringency of the climate objective, and that some countries might delay their participation to global action. What additional economic costs will this delay in the adoption of mitigation measures imply? What would the optimal short-term strategy be given the uncertainty surrounding the climate policy to come? Is there a hedging strategy that decision makers can adopt to cope with delayed action and uncertain targets? This paper addresses these questions by quantifying the economic implications of delaying mitigation action, and by computing the optimal abatement strategy in the presence of uncertainty about a global stabilisation target (which will be agreed upon in future climate negotiations). Results point to short-term inaction as the key determinant for the economic costs of ambitious climate policies. They also indicate that there is an effective hedging strategy that could minimise the cost of climate policy uncertainty over the global stabilisation target: a short-term moderate climate policy would be a good strategy to reduce the costs of delayed action and to cope with uncertainty about the outcome of future climate negotiations. By contrast, failing to curb emissions in the short term imposes rapidly increasing additional costs of compliance. 相似文献
16.
This paper provides a critique of the cost-benefit analysis tool for ecosystem services policy evaluation. We argue that when applied to public ecosystem services, the theoretical assumptions that underlie economic valuation and cost-benefit analysis fail to fully acknowledge the multiple dimensions of human well-being, the plural forms of value articulation, the complex nature of ecosystems, the distributional biases of markets and the fairness implications of spatio-temporal framing. The current monistic utilitarian approach to ecosystem services policy evaluation should therefore be replaced by a pluralist framework composed of a heterogeneous set of value-articulating instruments that are appropriate to the specific context within which decision-making takes place. It is argued that within this pluralist framework cost-benefit analysis may remain an appropriate tool to examine the contingent trade-offs of local policies that have limited impacts on ecosystems and their services. 相似文献
17.
What effects do domestic and international policies have on household solid fuel consumption? Previous studies analyze some of the policies that national governments and international organizations have implemented to reduce solid fuel dependence, but these studies tend to examine one policy and/or one country at a time. In contrast, this article seeks to provide a more systematic analysis of whether and to what extent domestic and international policies can encourage transition to less polluting fuels. Using data on the proportion of population using solid cooking fuels, and domestic and international programs promoting renewable energy, we evaluate the association between renewable energy policies and household solid fuel dependence. Our statistical tests show that such policies, regardless of their domestic or international origins, matter in explaining the level of solid fuel dependence. As the number of domestic policies increases, the share of population using solid fuels tends to decline. International efforts to promote renewable energy are also linked to reduced solid fuel dependence in countries where such international programs are implemented. 相似文献
18.
This paper synthesizes results of the multi-model Energy Modeling Forum 27 (EMF27) with a focus on climate policy scenarios. The study included two harmonized long-term climate targets of 450 ppm CO2-e (enforced in 2100) and 550 pm CO2-e (not-to-exceed) as well as two more fragmented policies based on national and regional emissions targets. Stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 and 550 ppm CO2-e requires a dramatic reduction of carbon emissions compared to baseline levels. Mitigation pathways for the 450 CO2-e target are largely overlapping with the 550 CO2-e pathways in the first half of the century, and the lower level is achieved through rapid reductions in atmospheric concentrations in the second half of the century aided by negative anthropogenic carbon flows. A fragmented scenario designed to extrapolate current levels of ambition into the future falls short of the emissions reductions required under the harmonized targets. In a more aggressive scenario intended to capture a break from observed levels of stringency, emissions are still somewhat higher in the second half due to unabated emissions from non-participating countries, emphasizing that a phase-out of global emissions in the long term can only be reached with full global participation. A key finding is that a large range of energy-related CO2 emissions can be compatible with a given long-term target, depending on assumptions about carbon cycle response, non-CO2 and land use CO2 emissions abatement, partly explaining the spread in mitigation costs. 相似文献
19.
1979~2013年西北太平洋地区海平面气压场季节转换时间的变化分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
采用1979~2013年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,借助线性趋势、距平、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验及Morlet小波等方法分析了西北太平洋地区海平面气压场季节转换时间的长期趋势和多尺度周期变化特征。结果表明:海平面气压场一年中存在两次季节转变,20°N~50°N海平面气压场冬夏季节转变的时间在第20候左右,而夏冬季节转变发生在第51候。并且海平面气压场的季节转换时间存在纬度差异与经度差异。通过趋势分析,发现海平面气压场由冬季型转变到夏季型的时间存在显著的趋势变化,并且在近35年内是趋于提前,其气候倾向率为-0.33候/10 a;夏季型转换为冬季型的时间趋于延后,气候倾向率为0.25候/10 a。季节转换时间的Mann-Kendall突变检测结果表明,海平面气压场由冬向夏的转换时间在1997~1998年间发生了突变;夏季型转换为冬季型的时间尚未发现显著突变。最后通过对季节转换时间的小波分析与小波功率谱的显著性检验得出,冬夏季节转换的时间具有显著的15 a周期变化;夏冬季节转换时间8 a周期振荡最为剧烈。 相似文献