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1.
Bian Haifeng Zhang Jun Li Ruixue Zhao Huanhuan Wang Xuexue Bai Yiping 《Natural Hazards》2021,106(3):1771-1795
As the scale of the power grid becomes larger, the requirements for transmission reliability are getting higher. Due to the large geographical span and the harsh environment of the power transmission line, it has become the most severely affected equipment of the power grid by natural factors. However, the quantitative assessment of transmission line tripping accidents caused by multiple natural hazards has rarely been investigated. In this study, a risk analysis method to probabilistically analyze the tripping accidents of power transmission lines caused by wildfire, lightning, strong wind and ice storm was proposed. The analysis process consists of comprehensively identifying the risk of tripping accidents based on fault tree analysis and dynamically performing the predictive analysis of tripping accident evolution process in transmission line from causes to consequences based on Bayesian network. Critical risk evolution paths corresponding to four natural hazards are determined through a 72-node BN. The source risks of the four critical risk evolution paths are artificial ignition source from the wildfire path, aging from the lightning path, thoughtless of surrounding environment from the strong wind path and wind effect from the ice storm path. The countermeasures of tripping accidents are derived through the source risks and synergy between risks in three scenario analysis. This study is expected to examine the key challenges of risk management in power grid tripping accidents, which provides technical supports for accident preventing, handling and recovering of tripping accidents of the power transmission line according to “scenario–response”-based hazard response strategy.
相似文献2.
Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes,floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Elisabeth Krausmann Elisabetta Renni Michela Campedel Valerio Cozzani 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(1):285-300
Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents
can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the
dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases
were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event
impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived.
The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning,
calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent
on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence
of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are
water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters.
The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed
databases. 相似文献
3.
进入新世纪,煤炭行业经过十年黄金期高速发展,煤炭产量稳定在目前的45亿t左右。煤矿安全形势总体向好,事故由多发、频发甚至群发,重特大事故时有发生,到单发、偶发,特别重大事故得到有效遏制;矿井水灾害仍为我国煤矿的主要灾害类型,是仅次于瓦斯灾害的第二大杀手。分析表明,客观上开采环境复杂以及主观上重视不够,是事故发生的主要原因;井田水文地质条件勘查、隐患探查治理、突水征兆辨识等“三道关”失守,是事故发生的主要技术原因。相应提出了依规勘查查清条件、照章探放消除隐患、异常辨识及时撤人3项过“三道关”技术措施,规范了“查疑、设计、施工、评价”超前探放水工作流程,强调了勘查理论技术体系和防治水工作体系及其各环节的新进展以及智能精准感知辨识技术为“守关”的科技支撑作用。展望未来,深度学习、智能感知及升尺度方法等理论探索,“三维透明地质体”及其属性探测技术的突破,是解决地质体的随机性、流体的时变性和采矿的动态性的根本出路,可实现我国矿井水可防可控的终极目标。 相似文献
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Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the
boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone
areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and
increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still
treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific
natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the
current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies
aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with
fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial
units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing
them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The
method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard
maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical
territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable
maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban
systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as
2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major
accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core. 相似文献
7.
Janaina Bezzerra Silva Mariana A. Giannotti Ana Paula C. Larocca José Alberto Quintanilha 《GeoJournal》2017,82(2):293-310
Spatial data have been used for the environmental monitoring of the consequences of accidents that involve the transportation of hazardous chemical products. This spatial data infrastructure (SDI), which was created for the sharing and use of spatial data, is limited by the absence of policies to support its establishment. The main objective of this study was to explore the use of social network analysis (SNA) as a tool to identify spatial data sharing between organizations involved in the management of accidents related to road transport of hazardous materials (RTHM). In addition, to discuss the existing policies and institutional agreements, and to initiate a conceptual SDI framework for RTHM sector. In this context, the institutions that are involved with RTHM were identified and information concerning their interest in the use and sharing of spatial data via a SDI was collected through interviews and consolidated. The interviews were at 39 institutions with representative employees. The interview data were tabulated and entered into the UCINET software (2000 version) to calculate metrics of centrality. From the SNA, the flow of data among the participating institutions was identified through the visual representation of the spatial data sharing and use networks. Subsequently, the existing institutional agreements for spatial data sharing were analyzed and discussed. The compiled results enabled the proposal of a conceptual SDI framework to support the management of disasters involving RTHM, based on the application of SNA theory, and the development of a methodology that supports the analysis of interactions among the various actors of an SDI. The purpose is to facilitate the formulation of policies for the sharing of spatial data for decision-making and preventive disaster management. The results indicate that the 39 institutions share spatial data, but this sharing is not always predetermined by formal agreements. Furthermore, there is a strong demand, by the institutions involved in the management of RTHM accidents, regarding legal mechanisms governing the sharing of data for the purpose of producing maps that help to describe actions of preparedness, prevention, management and immediate relief involving RTHM incidents. Finally, it was possible to propose a conceptual framework with data that is considered essential for creating an SDI for RTHM. 相似文献
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The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami damaged or destroyed many industrial facilities housing or processing hazardous substances, such as refineries, petrochemical facilities and other types of chemical industry. This showed that also generally well prepared countries are at risk of suffering natural hazard triggered technological (Natech) accidents. An analysis of data collected from open sources and through interviews with authorities was performed to understand the main reasons for the industrial damage and downtime as well as the extent of hazardous-materials releases and the associated impact on society. The analysis of the data set confirmed the findings from other studies with respect to main damage and failure modes, as well as hazardous-materials release paths. In addition, gaps in Natech risk management were identified. Based on the data analysis and interviews lessons learned in support of a more far-reaching Natech risk management are presented. 相似文献
9.
海洋经济的开发需要了解海洋灾害地质环境状况。海洋工程设计与建设需要考虑海底工程地质条件,特别是国家宏观决策更需要了解海洋地质环境的基本特征以及灾害地质类型、分布规律。灾害地质综合评价可以基于灾害地质分区进行,灾害地质综合评价的目标是比较不同分区的灾害地质稳定性并给出定量评价。文中就南海北部灾害地质稳定性提出了网格化加权统计模型。该模型结合专家智能的参与,体现了不同种类灾害地质因素的等级差别。另外还考虑到不同种类灾害地质因素之间的空间分布差异性及同类灾害地质因素的空间分布差异性。根据模型计算结果将评价区划分为稳定区、过渡区及危险区。这种划分通过与南海北部灾害地质稳定性定性描述对比。证明该模型在全面地定量化反映南海北部的地质环境状况方面是实用的。由于模型建立过程中各灾害因素权重分值的设定完全依赖于专家智能,因此,今后应当致力于更精确地确定权重分值。 相似文献
10.
M. Hadji Hosseinlou M. Sohrabi 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2009,6(2):309-314
Providing safety in roads for the purpose of protecting human assets and preventing social and economic losses resulted from road accidents is a significant issue. Identifying the traffic hot spots of the roads provides the possibility of promoting the road safety which is also related to investigate frequency and intensity of occurred accidents. Accidents are multidimensional and complicated events. Identifying the accident factors is based on applying a comprehensive and integrated system for making decisions. Therefore, applying common mathematical and statistical methods in this field can be resulted in some problems. Hence, the new research methods with abilities to infer meaning from complicated and ambiguous data seem useful. Therefore, along with identifying the traffic hot spots, adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy inference system is used to predict traffic hot spots on rural roads. In this process, a fuzzy inference system from Sugeno type is trained applying hybrid optimization routine (back propagation algorithm in combination with a least square type of method) and accident data of Karaj-Chalus road in Tehran Province. Then the system was tested by a complete set of data. Finally, the stated system could predict 96.85 % of accident frequencies in the studied blocks. Furthermore, the amount of effective false negative in all cases included only 0.82 % of predictions, which indicated a good approximation of predictions and model credibility. 相似文献
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根据某火电厂建设项目自身性质及其对地下水环境影响的特点,采用数值模拟法进行预测与评价,建立能够正确刻画评价区地下水流动特征的地下水数值模型,并预测评价项目厂区在建设阶段、运行阶段及服务期满后等3个情景下地下水环境的影响和危害情况。认为本项目废水设计为零排放,不会对场址所在的地下水系统造成新的影响。在正常工况下,建设项目不会对当地地下水产生明显影响。在考虑发生风险事故且防渗措施失效情况下,建设项目对场区及下游地下水环境造成轻微影响,不会引起地下水质量标准降低,在及时采取防渗堵漏措施后,对场区及下游地区地下水不会产生影响。旨在为有效预防和控制电厂区域的地下水环境恶化,保护地下水资源,为电厂工程设计和环境管理提供科学依据。 相似文献
12.
在煤炭开采过程中,瓦斯事故是煤矿五大自然灾害中,危害最大、破坏性最严重、伤亡人数最多的一类事故。随着矿井生产向深部延伸,地质构造复杂多变,瓦斯压力、瓦斯含量增大,瓦斯超限、瓦斯中毒造成人员死亡事故也时有发生。本文以皖南地区为例,从煤矿业主重视程度不足、技术力量薄弱、职工安全意识淡薄、管理存在缺陷等方面对低瓦斯矿井瓦斯中毒、窒息原因进行分析,为预防煤矿瓦斯中毒窒息事故的发生,提出针对性的防治措施。 相似文献
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滇藏公路类乌齐-俄洛桥段地质灾害发生频繁,长期以来一直严重影响了该段公路的正常通行。经实地调查研究发现,沿线存在崩塌、滑坡和泥石流等7类地质灾害,共有各类灾害点48处。为使该段公路改建工程的顺利进行,减少地质灾害对改建后公路的危害,文章结合地质环境条件和灾害特征等对全段地质灾害进行了危险性现状评估和预测评估,运用灾损率法和风险性区划法将评估区划分为7个区,并对这7个区进行了地质灾害危险性综合评估、建设场地适宜性和防治工程重要性分级。经综合评估发现,地质灾害危险性大的地区主要分布在地质条件差的高山峡谷地带,危险性小的地区主要分布在地质条件好的宽谷和山岭地带。最后提出了目前青藏高原地区公路地质灾害危险性评估中存在的问题。 相似文献
14.
Hot spot analysis based on network spatial weights to determine spatial statistics of traffic accidents in Rize,Turkey 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
H. Ebru Colak Tugba Memisoglu Y. Selcuk Erbas Sevket Bediroglu 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(7):151
The increased numbers of vehicles using roads in the world today are cause of traffic-related problems, and in this respect, road traffic accidents are an important topic relating to public health. Especially on the road connecting two border provinces, traffic accidents are increasing substantially in parallel with the quantity of transport facilities. By determining areas where traffic accidents result in deaths or injuries, accident prevention strategies can be developed. This study applies the spatial statistics techniques using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to determine the intensity of traffic accidents (hot-spot regions) over 45 km of main routes in Rize Province, Turkey. Traffic accidents recorded in data spanning 5 years are combined with a geographical dataset for evaluation using hot spot statistical analysis. Unlike other studies, this study used hot spot analysis based on network spatial weights (an innovative review in the methods of determining traffic accident hot spots: “novel application of GIScience”) to identify black spots for traffic safety. To perform the analysis using Hot Spot Analysis: Getis-Ord Gi*, a generated network dataset and the spatial weights of the road data are used to generate network spatial weights. Then, Kernel Density method is used to define traffic accident black spots. Finally, these two methods are compared each other with visually. 相似文献
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Xifei Huang Xinhao Wang Jingjing Pei Ming Xu Xiaowu Huang Yun Luo 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(3):1181-1202
As the industrialization process accelerates in developing countries, road accidents involving hazardous materials are increasing, and the threat associated with these accidents to areas along the highway cannot be ignored. The main objective of this paper is to contribute information regarding risk quantification, risk prevention, and control by government managers in areas along the highways. Thus, the risk assessment of the area along the highway (RAAH) method was established and applied as a regional risk prevention policy. Considering that the damage caused by accidents can vary substantially between different surroundings, the RAAH method was used as an integrated function comprising of accident frequency, intensity and vulnerability along the route, and the vulnerability system reflected the characteristics of the social and environmental factors in the study area. Then, in this study, we implemented this assessment model in geographic information system and applied it to a typical section of the Beijing–Tibet Highway in Beijing, China, to demonstrate its functionality and utility. A risk map was successfully obtained, and it showed that this method not only effectively reveals the neglected high-risk units but also can be used to provide technical support to the regional government to identify the blind spots and strengthen their risk management. 相似文献
17.
汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目WFSD-4S孔地层复杂,钻探施工难度大,孔内缩径、坍塌、掉块事故频发,给钻探施工带来了极大的困难。就WFSD-4S孔在孔深517 m发生的卡钻事故进行了详细的阐述,分析发生卡钻事故的原因及条件,采用了强力起拔、反钻杆、可退式打捞矛打捞、套铣等手段,最终成功处理该起卡钻事故。该起事故的经验,为同类事故的处理提供借鉴及参考。 相似文献
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V. T. Trofimov A. V. Nikolaev A. D. Zhigalin T. A. Baraboshkina M. A. Khar’kina E. V. Arkhipova 《Moscow University Geology Bulletin》2017,72(4):235-244
Onshore oil and gas production is often accompanied by accidents of varying severities and negative consequences. Operations within the areas of peripheral seas and the World Ocean have significantly aggravated the situation and driven a significant part of the emergencies related to the production of hydrocarbons to regional and global levels. The use of new technologies in the production of shale hydrocarbons has added a new problem, that is, the probability of total contamination of a large volume of geological environment with highly toxic chemicals. The discovery of a new promising fossil energy source, gas hydrates, makes it possible only to outline the possible related hazards and shows that the environmental risk can increase by many times. To withstand the threat of emergencies related to the growth of hydrocarbon production, it is advisable to establish special control and rapid-response structures on a nationwide scale. Such structures may be open to international cooperation in the jurisdiction of the United Nations, if necessary. 相似文献
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Human factors have contributed to the causes of several accidents. The physiological parameters change law of labor employees before and after fatigue is researched in this paper. The purpose of this research is to find the relationship between physiological parameters and fatigue, design corresponding fatigue monitoring and early warning system, reduce the accident rate and optimize the working environment. The labor employees’ heart rate, RR interval, respiration rate and blood pressure under fatigue state are determined in the laboratory. The change law of labor employees’ heart rate, RR interval, respiratory rate and blood pressure are analyzed based on the paired samples t test by using SPSS software. The results show that labor employees’ heart rate and RR interval have no significant difference before and after fatigue. Labor employees’ respiration rate has significant difference before and after fatigue: the respiration rate decreased after fatigue. Labor employees’ blood pressure has significant difference before and after fatigue: blood pressure of labor employees after fatigue can be elevated. The results provide a richer theoretical and practical basis in what criteria are used to determine the fatigue. It has important significance in the safety management field and accident prevention. 相似文献
20.
D. M. Orazulike 《Natural Hazards》1993,7(2):109-119
Field and chemical data show that soils in some parts of Bauchi State, Nigeria, are rich in illite (20–35%), montmorillonite (60–75%), and kaolinite (45–73%). These expansive clays cause the soils to shrink and swell alternatively in response to the seasonal supply of moisture; resulting in observed damaging cracks. Plasticity index (PI) determinations on these soils are high (7–13.4%) suggesting that they are potentially hazardous. The attendant hazards and huge losses to the State are blamed on the expansive nature of these soils. The hazardous conditions can be mitigated by adopting proper construction precautions as well as by using chemical additives such as lime and phosphates, to lower the PI and help to increase the strength of the soils. 相似文献