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1.
Much progress has been made in the area of tropical cyclone prediction using high-resolution mesoscale models based on community models developed at National Centers for Environmental Predication (NCEP) and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). While most of these model research and development activities are focused on predicting hurricanes in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific domains, there has been much interest in using these models for tropical cyclone prediction in the North Indian Ocean region, particularly for Bay of Bengal storms that are known historically causing severe damage to life and property. In this study, the advanced operational hurricane modeling system developed at NCEP, known as the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model, is used to simulate two recent Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones??Nargis of November 2007 and Sidr of April 2008. The advanced NCEP operational vortex initialization procedure is adapted for simulating these Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones. Two additional regional models, the NCAR Advanced Research WRF and NCAR/Penn State University Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) are also used in simulating these storms. Results from these experiments highlight the superior performance of HWRF model over other models in predicting the Bay of Bengal cyclones. These results also suggest the need for a sophisticated vortex initialization procedure in conjunction with a model designed exclusively for tropical cyclone prediction for operational considerations.  相似文献   

2.
The January 2010 earthquake that devastated Haiti left its population ever more vulnerable to rainfall-induced flash floods. A flash flood guidance system has been implemented to provide real-time information on the potential of small (~70 km2) basins for flash flooding throughout Haiti. This system has components for satellite rainfall ingest and adjustment on the basis of rain gauge information, dynamic soil water deficit estimation, ingest of operational mesoscale model quantitative precipitation forecasts, and estimation of the times of channel flow at bankfull. The result of the system integration is the estimation of the flash flood guidance (FFG) for a given basin and for a given duration. FFG is the amount of rain of a given duration over a small basin that causes minor flooding in the outlet of the basin. Amounts predicted or nowcasted that are higher than the FFG indicate basins with potential for flash flooding. In preparation for Hurricane Tomas’ landfall in early November 2010, the FFG system was used to generate 36-h forecasts of flash flood occurrence based on rainfall forecasts of the nested high-resolution North American Model of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Assessment of the forecast flood maps and forecast precipitation indicates the utility and value of the forecasts in understanding the spatial distribution of the expected flooding for mitigation and disaster management. It also highlights the need for explicit uncertainty characterization of forecast risk products due to large uncertainties in quantitative precipitation forecasts on hydrologic basin scales.  相似文献   

3.
The initialization scheme designed to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition is tested during Orissa super cyclone (1999) over Bay of Bengal using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University — National Center for Atmospheric Research (Penn State — NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5). A series of numerical experiments are conducted to generate initial vortices by assimilating the bogus wind information into MM5. Wind speed and location of the tropical cyclone obtained from best track data are used to define maximum wind speed, and centre of the storm respectively, in the initial vortex. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NCEP analysis. Using this scheme, the 24-h, 48-h, and 72-h forecast errors for this case was 63, 58, and 46 km, respectively, compared with 120, 335, and 550 km for the non-vortex initialized case starting from the NCEP global analysis. When bogus vortices are introduced into initial conditions, the significant improvements in the storm intensity predictions are also seen. The impact of the vortex size on the structure of the initial vortex is also evaluated. We found that when the radius of maximum wind (RMW) of the specified vortex is smaller than that of which can be resolved by the model, the specified vortex is not well adapted by the model. In contrast, when the vortex is sufficiently large for it to be resolved on horizontal grid, but not so large to be unrealistic, more accurate storm structure is obtained.  相似文献   

4.
Prediction of heavy rainfall events due to severe convective storms in terms of their spatial and temporal scales is a challenging task for an operational forecaster. The present study is about a record-breaking heavy rainfall event observed in Pune (18°31′N, 73°55′E) on October 4, 2010. The day witnessed highest 24-h accumulated precipitation of 181.3 mm and caused flash floods in the city. The WRF model-based real-time weather system, operating daily at Centre for Development of Advanced Computing using PARAM Yuva supercomputer showed the signature of this convective event 4-h before, but failed to capture the actual peak rainfall and its location with reference to the city’s observational network. To investigate further, five numerical experiments were conducted to check the impact of assimilation of observations in the WRF model forecast. First, a control experiment was conducted with initialization using National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Global Forecast System 0.5° data, while surface observational data from NCEP Prepbufr system were assimilated in the second experiment (VARSFC). In the third experiment (VARAMV), NCEP Prepbufr atmospheric motion vectors were assimilated. Fourth experiment (VARPRO) was assimilated with conventional soundings data, and all the available NCEP Prepbufr observations were assimilated in the fifth experiment (VARALL). Model runs were compared with observations from automated weather stations (AWS), synoptic charts of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Comparison of 24-h accumulated rainfall with IMD AWS 24-h gridded data showed that the fifth experiment (VARALL) produced better picture of heavy rainfall, maximum up to 251 mm/day toward the southern side, 31 km away from Pune’s IMD observatory. It was noticed that the effect of soundings observations experiment (VARPRO) caused heavy precipitation of 210 mm toward the southern side 49 km away from Pune. The wind analysis at 850 and 200 hPa indicated that the surface and atmospheric motion vector observations (VARAMV) helped in shifting its peak rainfall toward Pune, IMD observatory by 18 km, though VARALL over-predicted rainfall by 60 mm than the observed.  相似文献   

5.
以大连市复杂水库群供、调水系统为背景,在对系统特性分析的基础上,提出了系统实时调度框架及二层耦合结构模式,设计了以"总量控制、耦合嵌套、多维决策、滚动修正"为核心的实时调度流程。在径流预报方面,提出了基于超越概率的水库群供、调水系统长期入库径流预报方法,结合中期GFS(Global Forecasting System)数值预报技术对不同时段入库径流进行滚动预报。在调度模型方面,采用基于动态规划的建模求解新方法和常规调度方法,为调度决策提供参考。实例研究表明,建立的实时调度系统实现了滚动预报和滚动调度,具备了实时性;实现了宏观总控与局部调整相结合的调度目标,具备了调度决策不同时间尺度耦合嵌套特性,证明了系统的适用性。研究成果对于同类系统实时调度具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

6.
基于面向服务体系结构（SOA）的钾盐资源潜力系统   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
为了对中国钾盐矿产资源潜力进行全面预测,建立了全国性的钾盐矿产资源潜力预测系统。对收集的钾盐信息进行系统地整理,在Oracle空间数据库中建立面向对象的空间数据模型,基于面向服务体系结构进行系统的框架设计,将属性数据和空间数据的操作发布为Web服务,客户端通过网络调用服务实现空间与属性数据的一体化管理及分析,采用面向对象语言C#和ArcObjects二次开发具体实现本系统。系统可通过Web服务与其他地学系统有机集成,对地学数据基于服务集成与共享及一站式服务具有重要参考价值。  相似文献   

7.
为提高网格环境下海量空间数据管理与并行化处理效率,将网格环境下的分布并行处理技术与空间索引相融合,提出了一种空间索引框架(grid slot and hash R tree,GSHR-Tree).该索引树结构基于散列hash表和动态空间槽,结合R树结构的范围查询优势和哈希表结构的高效单key查询,分析改进了索引结构的组织和存储.构造了适合于大规模空间数据的网格并行空间计算的索引结构,该索引树算法根据空间数据划分策略,动态分割空间槽,并将它们映射到多个节点机上.每个节点机再将其对应空间槽中的空间对象组织成R树,以大节点R树方式在多个节点上分布索引数据.以空间范围查询并行处理的系统响应时间为性能评估指标,通过模拟实验证明,该GSHR-Tree索引满足了当前网格环境空间索引的需要,并具有设计合理、性能高效的特点.   相似文献   

8.
The desire to increase spatial and temporal resolution in modeling groundwater system has led to the requirement for intensive computational ability and large memory space. In the course of satisfying such requirement, parallel computing has played a core role over the past several decades. This paper reviews the parallel algebraic linear solution methods and the parallel implementation technologies for groundwater simulation. This work is carried out to provide guidance to enable modelers of groundwater systems to make sensible choices when developing solution methods based upon the current state of knowledge in parallel computing.  相似文献   

9.
A simulation study of the sea breeze circulation and thermal internal boundary layer (TIBL) characteristics has been carried out at the tropical site Kalpakkam on the east coast of India, for operational atmospheric dispersion prediction. The community based PSU/NCAR MM5 Meso-scale meteorological model is used for the study. Three cases on typical days in summer (24 May 2003), southwest (SW) monsoon (1 July 2001) winter season (2 February 2003) with different large-scale flow pattern are studied. The MM5 model is used with 3 nested domains with horizontal grid resolutions 18 km, 6 km and 2 km and 26 vertical levels. The model is integrated for 24 hours in the above cases with initial and boundary conditions taken from NCEP-FNL analyses data. Observations of 10 meteorological stations and coastal boundary layer experiments conducted at Kalpakkam are used for comparison and validation of the simulation. The characteristics of simulated sea breeze and TIBL at Kalpakkam are seen to vary in the above cases according to the prevailing large-scale winds and surface fluxes. The sea breeze circulation is seen to develop early with larger strength and inland propagation in the summer case under the influence of moderate synoptic wind and strong heating conditions than in the SW monsoon and winter cases. The horizontal and vertical extents of TIBL are found to be larger in the summer case than in other cases. Although model parameters agree in general with observations, all the fine features are not clearly captured and some slowness in model sea breeze development is also seen. The results indicate the need to improve i) the initial conditions by assimilation of available surface/upper air observations to reduce model bias and ii) surface net radiation parameterisation. The model could predict the essential features of the local circulation and further improvement is expected with better initial condition data and incorporation of more realistic surface data.  相似文献   

10.
It is well recognized that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a dominant role in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. A number of observational/empirical studies were conducted at different basins to investigate the influence of SST on the intensification of tropical cyclones and in turn, modification in SST by the cyclone itself. Although a few modeling studies confirmed the sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of Bengal cyclones. The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). Three numerical experiments are conducted with climatological SST, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) skin temperature as SST, and observed SST (satellite derived) toward 5-day simulation of the storm using mesoscale model MM5. At model initial state, NCEP skin temperature and observed SST over the Bay of Bengal are 1–2°C warmer than climatological SST, but cooler by nearly 1°C along the coastline. Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. The simulation results indicate that the sea surface temperature has a significant impact on model-simulated track and intensity of the cyclonic storm. The track and intensity of the storm is better simulated with the use of satellite-observed SST.  相似文献   

11.
Air pollution is usually driven by a complex combination of factors in which meteorology, physical obstacles, and interactions between pollutants play significant roles. Considering the characteristics of urban atmospheric pollution and its consequent impacts on human health and quality of life, forecasting models have emerged as an effective tool to identify and forecast air pollution episodes. The overall objective of the present work is to produce forecasts of pollutant concentrations with high spatio-temporal resolution and to quantify the uncertainty in those forecasts. Therefore, a new approach was developed based on a two-step methodology. Firstly, neural network models were used to generate short-term temporal forecasts based on air pollution and meteorology data. The accuracy of those forecasts was then evaluated against an independent set of historical data. Secondly, local conditional distributions of the observed values with respect to the predicted values were used to perform spatial stochastic simulations for the entire geographic area of interest. With this approach the spatio-temporal dispersion of a pollutant can be predicted, while accounting for both the temporal uncertainty in the forecast (reflecting the neural networks efficiency at each monitoring station) and the spatial uncertainty as revealed by the spatial variograms. Based on an analysis of the results, our proposed method offers a highly promising alternative for the characterization of urban air quality.  相似文献   

12.
The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of a surface data assimilation (SDA) technique, together with the traditional four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), on the simulation of a monsoon depression that formed over India during the field phase of the 1999 Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The SDA uses the analyzed surface data to continuously assimilate the surface layer temperature as well as the water vapor mixing ratio in the mesoscale model. The depression for the greater part of this study was offshore and since successful application of the SDA would require surface information, a method of estimating surface temperature and surface humidity using NOAA-TOVS satellites was used. Three sets of numerical experiments were performed using a coupled mesoscale model. The first set, called CONTROL, uses the NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis for the initial and lateral boundary conditions in the MM5 simulation. The second and the third sets implemented the SDA of temperature and moisture together with the traditional FDDA scheme available in the MM5 model. The second set of MM5 simulation implemented the SDA scheme only over the land areas, and the third set extended the SDA technique over land as well as sea. Both the second and third sets of the MM5 simulation used the NOAA-TOVS and QuikSCAT satellite and conventional upper air and surface meteorological data to provide an improved analysis. The results of the three sets of MM5 simulations are compared with one another and with the analysis and the BOBMEX 1999 buoy, ship, and radiosonde observations. The predicted sea level pressure of both the model runs with assimilation resembles the analysis closely and also captures the large-scale structure of the monsoon depression well. The central sea level pressures of the depression for both the model runs with assimilation were 2–4 hPa lower than the CONTROL. The results of both the model runs with assimilation indicate a larger spatial area as well as increased rainfall amounts over the coastal regions after landfall compared with the CONTROL. The impact of FDDA and SDA, the latter over land, resulted in reduced errors of the following: 1.45 K in temperature, 0.39 m s−1 in wind speed, and 14° in wind direction compared with the BOBMEX buoy observation, and 1.43 m s−1 in wind speed, 43° in wind direction, and 0.75% in relative humidity compared with the CONTROL. The impact of SDA over land and sea compared with SDA over land only showed a further marginal reduction of errors: 0.23 K in air temperature (BOBMEX buoy) and 1.33 m s−1 in wind speed simulations.  相似文献   

13.
基于椭圆型缓坡方程和消息传递接口机制,提出了缓坡地形上非线性波浪变形的一种并行数值模拟方法,并在微机群集并行系统上进行了数值实现.对一种典型缓坡地形上的非线性波浪传播变形进行了数值模拟,数值结果与实验数据的比较表明,在椭圆型缓坡方程中应用非线性波色散关系可有效考虑波浪的非线性效应,同时从获得的并行效率和并行加速比来看,并行数值方法可有效提高数值模拟效率.  相似文献   

14.
Most tropical cyclones have very few observations in their vicinity. Hence either they go undetected in standard analyses or are analyzed very poorly, with ill defined centres and locations. Such initial errors obviously have major impact on the forecast of cyclone tracks using numerical models. One way of overcoming the above difficulty is to remove the weak initial vortex and replace it with a synthetic vortex (with the correct size, intensity and location) in the initial analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of introducing NCAR–AFWA synthetic vortex scheme in the regional model MM5 on the simulation of a tropical cyclone formed over the Arabian Sea during November 2003. Two sets of numerical experiments are conducted in this study. While the first set utilizes the NCEP reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, the second set utilizes the NCAR–AFWA synthetic vortex scheme. The results of the two sets of MM5 simulations are compared with one another as well as with the observations and the NCEP reanalysis. It is found that inclusion of the synthetic vortex has resulted in improvements in the simulation of wind asymmetries, warm temperature anomalies, stronger vertical velocity fields and consequently in the overall structure of the tropical cyclone. The time series of the minimum sea level pressure and maximum wind speed reveal that the model simulations are closer to observations when synthetic vortex was introduced in the model. The central minimum pressure reduces by 17 hPa while the maximum wind speed associated with the tropical cyclone enhances by 17 m s −1 with the introduction of the synthetic vortex. While the lowest central pressure estimated from the satellite image is 988 hPa, the corresponding value in the synthetic vortex simulated cyclone is 993 hPa. Improvements in the overall structure and initial location of the center of the system have contributed to considerable reduction in the vector track prediction errors ie. 642 km in 24 h, 788 km in 48 h and 1145 km in 72 h. Further, simulation with the synthetic vortex shows realistic spatial distribution of the precipitation associated with the tropical cyclone.  相似文献   

15.
The relative contributions of spatial and temporal fluctuations are different in shaping natural communities in a tropical coastal/estuarine system. Understanding how coastal communities respond to these fluctuations is still equivocal, and thus, available data are rare. Here, multiple analytical approaches were used to identify key spatial and temporal factors, and to quantify their relative roles in shaping a macrobenthic community through space (contamination degree, physical parameters, and sediment characteristics) and time (climatic factors, season, and year). A dataset of eight sampling times was analyzed over a period of 2 years, in which macrobenthic species abundances were sampled. A total of 33 species were identified, including 18 bivalves, 5 gastropods, and 4 crustaceans. The other taxa were less diverse. The results show that there were no significant temporal changes of macrobenthic community structure, but spatial changes were significant and synchronized with environmental factors (i.e., sediment characteristics, water depth, and the distance from anthropogenic sources). This study demonstrates that spatial factors played a primary role in structuring of macrobenthic assemblages, whereas the influence of temporal factors appeared less across geographically distinct sites. Thus, temporal variation of a coastal macrobenthic community appears to be controlled by partly different processes at different scales.  相似文献   

16.
基于MPI的快速富里叶变换并行算法   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
随着并行计算技术的快速发展 ,数据处理、信息处理等应用领域处理问题规模的日益增大 ,对并行计算的需求也越来越迫切。这里给出一种基于可移植消息传递界面 (MPI)标准的一维快速富里叶变换并行算法 ,可应用于分布式存储并行计算机系统  相似文献   

17.
Recent rapid progress in cyberinfrastructure in geosciences is providing seismologists an enormous boost for addressing multi-physical phenomena of regional seismic activities.The inherent nature of their multi-scale properties,from temporal to spatial spaces,makes it inevitably to be solved using large-scale computations and distributed parallel data processing schemes.Under such circumstance,using the advanced numerical algorithms and unstructured mesh generation technologies become the obstacles for m...  相似文献   

18.
The hybrid two-way coupled 3DEnsVar assimilation system was tested with the NCMRWF global data assimilation forecasting system. At present, this system consists of T574L64 deterministic model and the grid-point statistical interpolation analysis scheme. In this experiment, the analysis system is modified with a two-way coupling with an 80 member Ensemble Kalman Filter of T254L64 resolution and runs are carried out in parallel to the operational system for the Indian summer monsoon season (June–September) for the year 2015 to study its impact. Both the assimilation systems are based on NCEP GFS system. It is found that hybrid assimilation marginally improved the quality of the forecasts of all variables over the deterministic 3D Var system, in terms of statistical skill scores and also in terms of circulation features. The impact of the hybrid system in prediction of extreme rainfall and cyclone track is discussed.  相似文献   

19.
青藏高原地区多套位势高度和风场再分析资料的对比分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  
胡梦玲  游庆龙  林厚博 《冰川冻土》2015,37(5):1229-1244
针对20CR、CFSR、NCEP1、NCEP2、ERA-Interim、ERA-20CM和JRA-55再分析位势高度和风场资料,基于探空资料,采用计算均方根误差、相关分析等方法从气候均值、长期变化趋势和年际变率三个方面评估再分析资料在青藏高原地区的适用性.结果表明:再分析资料的适用性存在季节、空间和垂直层次上的差异.气候均值方面,NCEP1和ERA-Interim位势高度资料与观测资料最接近,适用性最佳,而ERA-20CM资料偏差最大.春夏季,NCEP2和NCEP1的风速资料质量较优,20CR和ERA-20CM资料质量相对较差;而秋冬季,ERA-20CM风速资料与探空资料最接近,质量最好.气候变化趋势方面,JRA-55、ERA-Interim和NCEP1资料质量存在时空的差异,但均能很好地反映出位势高度的变化趋势.年际变率方面,除了ERA-20CM,各再分析资料与探空资料相关性高,对年际变率的刻画基本一致,其中JRA-55和ERA-Interim位势高度资料与探空资料相关性最好.就季节而言,冬季再分析资料质量最高,适用性好,其次为春季,夏季资料质量最低.  相似文献   

20.
Today’s organizations, industries and research centers are geographically distributed in different sites. To achieve true knowledge of business, mining massive amounts of data is necessary. In earth-related sciences such as meteorology, the date obtained from the various types of sensors is huge because of the high-frequency rate of data acquisition process and also the geographical distribution of weather stations. Therefore, the data mining and knowledge discovery process of this big and distributed data is a challenging work. In this paper, we propose a new distributed data mining approach called multi-agent hierarchical data mining to classify meteorology data, which has been collected from different sites widely distributed around the country (Iran). Our method utilizes a modified version of REPTree algorithm, which has been optimized to work in multi-agent system. To evaluate the proposed approach, it is implemented on 20 million of meteorology data record. Experimental results show that multi-agent hierarchical data mining approach can achieve significant performance improvement over centralized and parallel methods for knowledge discovery in large amounts of data.  相似文献   

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