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1.
The “overshoot scenario” is an emissions scenario in which CO2 concentration in the atmosphere temporarily exceeds some pre-defined, “dangerous” threshold (before being reduced to non-dangerous levels). Support for this idea comes from its potential to achieve a balance between the burdens of current and future generations in dealing with global warming. Before it can be considered a viable policy, the overshoot scenario needs to be examined in terms of its impacts on the global climate and the environment. In, particular, it must be determined if climate change cause by the overshoot scenario is reversible or not, since crossing that “dangerous” CO2 threshold could result in climate change from which we might not be able to recover. In this study, we quantify the change in several climatic and environmental variables under the overshoot scenario using a global climate model of intermediate complexity. Compared to earlier studies on the overshoot scenario, we have an explicit carbon cycle model that allows us to represent carbon-climate feedbacks and force the climate model more realistically with CO2 emissions rates rather than with prescribed atmospheric pCO2. Our standard CO2 emissions rate is calculated on the basis of historical atmospheric pCO2 data and the WRE S650 non-overshoot stabilization profile. It starts from the preindustrial year 1760, peaks in the year 2056, and ends in the year 2300. A variety of overshoot scenarios were constructed by increasing the amplitude of the control emissions peak but decreasing the peak duration so that the cumulative emissions remain essentially constant. Sensitivity simulations of various overshoot scenarios in our model show that many aspects of the global climate are largely reversible by year 2300. The significance of the reversibility, which takes roughly 200 years in our experiments, depends on the time horizon with which it is viewed or the number of future generations for whom equity is sought. At times when the overshoot scenario has emissions rates higher then the control scenario, the transient changes in atmospheric and oceanic temperatures and surface ocean pH can be significant, even for moderate overshoot scenarios that remain within IPCC SRES emissions scenarios. The large transient changes and the centennial timescale of climate reversibility suggest that the overshoot might not be the best mitigation approach, even if it technically follows the optimal economic path. 相似文献
2.
Climatic models are increasingly being used to answer “cosmic questions” such as the possibility of an ice-covered Earth or a runaway greenhouse effect, or to examine the coevolution of climate and life. Conclusions from these models on such issues, of course, rest on the physical parameterizations of the models. Some of the basic parameterizations are reexamined quantitatively, and it is concluded that presently believed uncertainties in these parameterizations lead to an order-of-magnitude uncertainty in estimates of the sensitivity of the present Earth's climate to external forcings (like a change in solar constant). However, seasonal simulations with present Earth models suggest that estimates of the overall sensitivity of the climate to external forcing may be narrowed (over decadal time scales) to, perhaps, a factor of 2. But the effects of glaciers, continental locations, and atmospheric composition, all of which can change on geological time scales, further enhance the uncertainties in long-term climatic sensitivity estimates from state-of-the-art models. But it is precisely these long-term estimates of climatic sensitivity which support quantitative conclusions on, for example, the possible existence of continuously habitable zones around main-sequence stars. We believe that those who draw cosmic conclusions from climatic models should at least attempt to bracket the final results by repeating their calculations over a plausible range of uncertainty in basic model parameterizations. 相似文献
3.
A typical question in climate change analysis is whether a certain observed climate characteristic, like a pronounced anomaly or an interdecadal trend, is an indicator of anthropogenic climate change or still in the range of natural variability. Many climatic features are described by one-dimensional index time series, like for instance the global mean temperature or circulation indices. Here, we present a Bayesian classification approach applied to the time series of the northern annular mode (NAM), which is the leading mode of Northern Hemisphere climate variability. After a pronounced negative phase during the 1950s and 1960s, the observed NAM index reveals a distinct positive trend, which is also simulated by various climate model simulations under enhanced greenhouse conditions. The objective of this study is to decide whether the observed temporal evolution of the NAM may be an indicator of global warming. Given a set of prior probabilities for disturbed and undisturbed climate scenarios, the Bayesian decision theorem decides whether the observed NAM trend is classified in a control climate, a greenhouse-gas plus sulphate aerosol climate or a purely greenhouse-gas induced climate as derived from multi-model ensemble simulations.The three climate scenarios are well separated from each other in terms of the 30-year NAM trends. The multi-model ensembles contain a weak but statistically significant climate change signal in the form of an intensification of the NAM. The Bayesian classification suggests that the greenhouse-gas scenario is the most probable explanation for the observed NAM trend since 1960, even if a high prior probability is assigned to the control climate. However, there are still large uncertainties in this classification result because some periods at the end of the 19th century and during the “warm” 1920s are also classified in an anthropogenic climate, although natural forcings are likely responsible for this early NAM intensification. This demonstrates a basic shortcoming of the Bayesian decision theorem when it is based on one-dimensional index time series like the NAM index. 相似文献
4.
Mikhail Budyko 《Global and Planetary Change》1999,20(4):1
Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. 相似文献
5.
Interannual variability of regional climate was investigated on a seasonal basis. Observations and two global climate model (GCM) simulations were intercompared to identify model biases and climate change signals due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Observed record length varies from 40 to 100 years, while the model output comes from two 100-year equilibrium climate simulations corresponding to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at observed 1990 and projected 2050 levels. The GCM includes an atmosphere based on the NCAR CCM1 with the addition of the radiative effects of CH4, N2O and CFCs, a bulk layer land surface and a mixed-layer ocean with thermodynamic sea-ice and fixed meridional oceanic heat transport.Because comparisons of interannual variability are sensitive to the time period chosen, a climate ensemble technique has been developed. This technique provides comparisons between variance ratios of two time series for all possible contiguous sub-periods of a fixed length. The time autocorrelation is thus preserved within each sub-period. The optimal sub-period length was found to be 30 years, based on which robust statistics of the ensemble were obtained to identify substantial differences in interannual variability that are both physically important and statistically significant.Several aspects of observed interannual variability were reproduced by the GCM. These include: global surface air temperature; Arctic sea-ice extent; and regional variability of surface air temperature, sea level pressure and 500 mb height over about one quarter of the observed data domains. Substantial biases, however, exist over broad regions, where strong seasonality and systematic links between variables were identified. For instance, during summer substantially greater model variability was found for both surface air temperature and sea-level pressure over land areas between 20–50°N, while this tendency was confined to 20–30°N in other seasons. When greenhouse gas concentrations increase, atmospheric moisture variability is substantially larger over areas that experience the greatest surface warming. This corresponds to an intensified hydrologic cycle and, hence, regional increases in precipitation variability. Surface air temperature variability increases where hydrologic processes vary greatly or where mean soil moisture is much reduced. In contrast, temperature variability decreases substantially where sea-ice melts completely. These results indicate that regional changes in interannual variability due to the enhanced greenhouse effect are associated with mechanisms that depend on the variable and season. 相似文献
6.
Geological evidence indicates that low-latitude polygonally-patterned grounds on Mars, generally thought to be the product of flood volcanism, are periglacial in nature and record a complex signal of changing climate. By studying the martian surface stratigraphically (in terms of the geometrical relations between surface landforms and the substrate) rather than genetically (by form analogy with Earth), we have identified dynamic surfaces across one-fifth of martian longitude. New stratigraphical observations in the Elysium-Amazonis plains have revealed a progressive surface polygonisation that is destructive of impact craters across the region. This activity is comparable to the climatically-driven degradation of periglacial landscapes on Earth, but because it affects impact craters—the martian chronometer—it can be dated. Here, we show that it is possible to directly date this activity based on the fraction of impact craters affected by polygon formation. Nearly 100% of craters (of all diameters) are superposed by polygonal sculpture: considering the few-100 Ma age of the substrate, this suggests that the process of polygon formation was active within the last few million years. Surface polygonisation in this region, often considered to be one of the signs of young, ‘plains-forming’ volcanism on Mars, is instead shown to postdate the majority of impact craters seen. We therefore conclude that it is post-depositional in origin and an artefact of thermal cycling of near-surface ground ice. Stratigraphically-controlled crater counts present the first way of dating climate change on a planet other than Earth: a record that may tell us something about climate change on our own planet. Parallel climate change on these two worlds—an ice age Mars coincident with Earth’s glacial Quaternary period—might suggest a coupled system linking both. We have previously been unable to generalise about the causes of long-term climate change based on a single terrestrial example—with the beginnings of a chronology for climate change on our nearest planetary neighbour, we can. 相似文献
7.
We argue that it is important to expand the consideration of climate in the context of provision of ecosystem services in drylands. In addition to climate change, it is necessary to include climate variability on timescales relevant to human and ecological considerations, namely interannual to decadal and multidecadal. The period of global instrumental record (about a century and a half long at the very most) is neither an adequate nor an unbiased sample of the range and character of natural climate variability that might be expected with the climate system configured as it is now. We base this on evidence from W. N. America, where there has recently been a major multi-year drought, of a scale and intensity that has occurred several times in the last 2000 years, and on attempts to provide explanations of these phenomena based on physical climatology. Ensembles of runs of forced climate system models suggest the next 50 years will bring much more extensive and intense drought in the continental interior of North America. The trajectory followed by the supply of ecosystem services will be contingent not only on the genotypes available and the antecedent soil, economic and social conditions but also on climate variability and change. The critical features of climate on which patterns of plant growth and water supply depend may vary sharply during and between human generations, resulting in very different experiences and hence, expectations. 相似文献
8.
Glacier mass changes are considered to represent natural key variables with respect to strategies for early detection of enhanced greenhouse effects on climate. The main problem, however, with interpreting worldwide glacier mass balance evolution concerns the question of representativity. One important key to deal with such uncertainties and to assess the spatio-temporal representativity of the few available measurements is the long-term change in cumulative glacier length. The mean specific mass balance determined from glacier length change data since 1900 shows considerable regional variability but centers around a mean value of about −0.25 m year−1 water equivalent. 相似文献
9.
Responses of dune activity and desertification in China to global warming in the twenty-first century 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Most areas of arid and semiarid China are covered by aeolian sand dunes, sand sheets, and desert steppes, and the existence of the nearly 80 million people who live in this region could be seriously jeopardized if climate change increases desertification. However, the expected trends in desertification during the 21st century are poorly understood. In the present study, we selected the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 global climate models (after comparing them with the results of the GFDL-R30, CGCM2, and CSIRO-Mk2b models) and used simulations of a dune mobility index under IPCC SRES climate scenarios A1FI, A2a, A2b, A2c, B1a, B2a, and B2b to estimate future trends in dune activity and desertification in China. Although uncertainties in climate predictions mean that there is still far to go before we can develop a comprehensive dune activity estimation system, HadCM3 simulations with most greenhouse forcing scenarios showed decreased desertification in most western region of arid and semiarid China by 2039, but increased desertification thereafter, whereas ECHAM4 simulation results showed that desertification will increase during this period. Inhabitants of thecentral region will benefit from reversed desertification from 2010 to 2099, whereas inhabitants of the eastern region will suffer from increased desertification from 2010 to 2099. From 2010 to 2039, most regions will not be significantly affected by desertification, but from 2040 to 2099, the environments of the western and eastern regions will deteriorate due to the significant effects of global warming (particularly the interaction between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration), leading to decreased livestock and grain yields and possibly threatening China's food security. 相似文献
10.
G. Thomas 《Global and Planetary Change》1990,2(3-4)
The requirement to increase understanding of the complex interaction between society and the environment is well documented. Dramatic evidence of the vulnerability of anthropogenic systems to short-term weather fluctuations abounds. Taking an historical perspective provides an equally impressive picture of the potential upheaval caused by longer term climate changes. However, the past (and present) may not provide an adequate analoque for the future. The greenhouse theory of climate change suggests that the changes in climate regime to be expected from enhanced atmospheric CO2 will be of similar magnitude to the glacial-interglacial mean temperature difference, but will occur in a fraction of the time. Consequently, considerable emphasis is being placed on the role of physical climate models in determining projections of future global and regional temperature and precipitation patterns. The latter climate changes will have important implications for the distribution (in time and space) of water, a principal natural resource and basic requirement for a variety of human activities. Consequently, climate models are being applied to the question of determining the regional hydrologic response to global climate change. The latter objective is a prerequisite to assessing the likely impacts on the water resources sector. This paper reviews current progress in achieving this aim and outlines some future research directions. 相似文献
11.
Stabilization and global climate policy 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Marcus C. Sarofim Chris E. Forest David M. Reiner John M. Reilly 《Global and Planetary Change》2005,47(2-4):266
Academic and political debates over long-run climate policy often invoke “stabilization” of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), but only rarely are non-CO2 greenhouse gases addressed explicitly. Even though the majority of short-term climate policies propose trading between gases on a global warming potential (GWP) basis, discussions of whether CO2 concentrations should be 450, 550, 650 or perhaps as much as 750 ppm leave unstated whether there should be no additional forcing from other GHGs beyond current levels or whether separate concentration targets should be established for each GHG. Here, we use an integrated modeling framework to examine multi-gas stabilization in terms of temperature, economic costs, carbon uptake and other important consequences. We show that there are significant differences in both costs and climate impacts between different “GWP equivalent” policies and demonstrate the importance of non-CO2 GHG reduction on timescales of up to several centuries. 相似文献
12.
The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: A Ricardian approach 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This paper measures the economic impact of climate on crops in Kenya. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 816 households. We estimate a seasonal Ricardian model to assess the impact of climate on net crop revenue per acre. The results show that climate affects crop productivity. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is harmful for crop productivity. Predictions from global circulation models confirm that global warming will have a substantial impact on net crop revenue in Kenya. The results also show that the temperature component of global warming is much more important than precipitation. Findings call for monitoring of climate change and dissemination of information to farmers to encourage adaptations to climate change. Improved management and conservation of available water resources, water harvesting and recycling of wastewater could generate water for irrigation purposes especially in the arid and semi-arid areas. 相似文献
13.
14.
Long-wave energy emitted by the Earth-atmosphere into space is characterized by changes in power over time that always lag
behind the changes in power of the absorbed solar radiation due to slow variation in enthalpy of the Earth-atmosphere system.
Long-term variation of the solar energy radiation absorbed by the Earth remains uncompensated by the energy radiated into
space over the interval of time that is determined by the thermal inertia. The basic state of the climate system is when the
debit and credit sides in the Earth’s global annual mean energy budget (including the air and water envelopes) are almost
always unbalanced. The annual mean balance of the heat budget of the Earth-atmosphere over a long time period will reliably
define the behavior and magnitude of the energy excess accumulated by the Earth or energy deficit to allow us to determine
adequately and to predict beforehand the trend and amplitude of the forthcoming climate change using the prognosis of variations
in the total solar irradiance (solar constant). The decrease in solar constant has been observed since the early 1990s. The
Earth as a planet will have a negative balance in the energy budget in the future as well, because the Sun is entering the
decline phase of the bicentennial luminosity changes. This will lead to a drop in temperature in approximately 2014. The increase
in albedo and decrease in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere will result in the additional decrease in absorbed
portion of the solar energy and reduced greenhouse effect. The additional drop in temperature exceeding the effect of decreased
solar constant can occur as a result of successive feedback effects. A deep bicentennial minimum in solar constant is to be
anticipated in 2042 ± 11 and the 19th Little Ice Age (for the last 7500 years) may occur in 2055 ± 11. 相似文献
15.
The response of natural vegetation to climate change is of global concern. In this research, an aggregated Holdridge Life Zone System was used to study the possible response of life zones in China under doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration with the input climatic parameters at 0.5×0.5° resolution of longitude and latitude from NCAR regional climate model 2 (RegCM2) coupled with the CSIRO global climate model. The results indicate that the latitudinal distribution of life zones would become irregular because of the complicated climate change. In particular, new life zones, such as subtropical desert (SD), tropical desert (TDE) and tropical thorn woodland (TTW), would appear. Subtropical evergreen broadleaved forest (SEBF), tropical rainforest and monsoon forest (TRF), SD, TDE and TTW zones would appear in the northeastern China. Cool-temperate mixed coniferous and broadleaved forest (CMC) and warm-temperate deciduous broadleaved forest (WDBF) zones would appear at latitudes 25–35°N. The temperate desert (TD) in the western China would become Tibetan high-cold plateau (THP), SEBF, WDBF and temperate steppe (TS), and a large part of THP would be replaced by TRF, TDE, SEBF, TS and TTW. The relative area (distribution area/total terrestrial area) of CMC, TRF, TDE and TTW zone would increase about 3%, 21%, 3% and 6%, respectively. However, the relative area of SEBF, TS, TD and THP would decrease about 5%, 3%, 19% and 4%, respectively. In all, the relative area of forests (CCF, CMC, WDBF, SEBF, TRF) would increase about 15%, but the relative area of desert (TD, SD, TDE, and TTW) and THP would decrease about 9% and 4%, respectively. Therefore, responses of different life zones in China to climate change would be dramatic, and nationwide corridors should be considered for the conservation of migrating species under climate change. 相似文献
16.
We use three measures of aridity, the Köppen climate classification, the UNEP aridity index and the Budyko dryness index, to estimate the possible effects of late 21st century climate change on the Mediterranean region under increased greenhouse gas concentrations (A2 and B2 IPCC emission scenarios) as simulated with a high resolution (20 km grid interval) regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM). A basic validation of the reference simulation along with a brief discussion of the surface climate changes for the A2 and B2 scenarios is also provided. Analysis of the changes in all three aridity measures indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region might experience a substantial increase in the northward extension of dry and arid lands, particularly in the central and southern portions of the Iberian, Italian, Hellenic and Turkish peninsulas and in areas of southeastern Europe (e.g. Romania and Bulgaria), the Middle East, northern Africa and major Islands (Corsica, Sardinia and Sicily). Most Ice-Cap areas of the Alps are also projected to disappear. These effects are due to a large warming and pronounced decrease in precipitation, especially during the spring and summer seasons. In addition, fine scale topography and coastline features affect the aridity change signal. We identify the southern Mediterranean as a region particularly vulnerable to water stress and desertification processes under climate change conditions. 相似文献
17.
Brent Yarnal 《Global and Planetary Change》1996,11(4):167-175
Many scientists are striving to identify and promote the policy implications of their global change research. Much basic research on global environmental change cannot advance policy directly, but new projects can determine the relevance of their research to decision makers and build policy-relevant products into the work. Similarly, many ongoing projects can alter or add to the present science design to make the research policy relevant. Thus, this paper shows scientists working on global change how to make their research policy relevant. It demonstrates how research on physical global change relates to human dimensions studies and integrated assessments. It also presents an example of how policy relevance can be fit retroactively into a global change project (in this case, SRBEX—the Susquehanna River Basin Experiment) and how that addition can enhance the project's status and science. The paper concludes that policy relevance is desirable from social and scientific perspectives. 相似文献
18.
《Global and Planetary Change》2006,50(1-2):1-17
This study utilizes the NCAR Land Surface Model (LSM1.2) integrated with dynamic global vegetation to recreate the early Paleogene global distribution of vegetation and to examine the response of the vegetation distribution to changes in climate at the Paleocene–Eocene boundary (∼ 55 Ma). We run two simulations with Eocene geography driven by climatologies generated in two atmosphere global modeling experiments: one with atmospheric pCO2 at 560 ppm, and another at 1120 ppm. In both scenarios, the model produces the best match with fossil flora in the low latitudes. A comparison of model output from the two scenarios suggests that the greatest impact of climate on vegetation will occur in the high latitudes, in the Arctic Circle and in Antarctica. In these regions, greater accumulated summertime warmth in the 1120 ppm simulation allows temperate plant functional types to expand further poleward. Additionally, the high pCO2 scenario produces a greater abundance of trees over grass at these high latitudes. In the middle and low latitudes, the general distribution of plant functional types is similar in both pCO2 scenarios. Likely, a greater increment of greenhouse gases is necessary to produce the type of change evident in the mid-latitude paleobotanical record. Overall, differences between model output and fossil flora are greatest at high latitudes. 相似文献
19.
Greenhouse gas emissions from a managed grassland 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Managed grasslands contribute to global warming by the exchange of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane. To reduce uncertainties of the global warming potential of European grasslands and to assess potential mitigation options, an integrated approach quantifying fluxes from all three gases is needed. Greenhouse gas emissions from a grassland site in the SE of Scotland were measured in 2002 and 2003. Closed static chambers were used for N2O and CH4 flux measurements, and samples were analysed by gas chromatography. Closed dynamic chambers were used for soil respiration measurements, using infrared gas analysis. Three organic manures and two inorganic fertilizers were applied at a rate of 300 kg N ha−1 a−1 (available N) and compared with a zero-N control on grassland plots in a replicated experimental design. Soil respiration from plots receiving manure was up to 1.6 times larger than CO2 release from control plots and up to 1.7 times larger compared to inorganic treatments (p<0.05). A highly significant (p<0.001) effect of fertilizer and manure treatments on N2O release was observed. Release of N2O from plots receiving inorganic fertilizers resulted in short term peaks of up to 388 g N2O–N ha−1 day−1. However losses from plots receiving organic manures were both longer lasting and greater in magnitude, with an emission of up to 3488 g N2O–N ha−1 day−1 from the sewage sludge treatments. During the 2002 growing season the cumulative total N2O flux from manure treatments was 25 times larger than that from mineral fertilizers. CH4 emissions were only significantly increased (p<0.001) for a short period following applications of cattle slurry. Although soil respiration in manure plots was high, model predictions and micrometeorological flux measurements at an adjacent site suggest that all plots receiving fertilizer or manure acted as a sink for CO2. Therefore in terms of global warming potentials the contribution of N2O from manure treatments becomes particularly important. There were considerable variations in N2O and CO2 fluxes between years, which was related to annual variations in soil temperature and rainfall. 相似文献
20.
Stephen J. Gallagher Barbara E. Wagstaff Jennifer G. Baird Malcolm W. Wallace Chung Leong Li 《Global and Planetary Change》2008,60(3-4):351-364
A palynological study of oil exploration wells in the Gippsland Basin southeastern Australia has provided a record of southern high latitude climate variability for the last 12 million years of the Cretaceous greenhouse world. During this time, the vegetation was dominated by a cool to temperate flora of Podocarpaceae, Proteaceae and Nothofagidites spp. at a latitude of 60°S. Milankovitch forced cyclic alternations from drier to wetter climatic periods caused vegetation variability from 72 to 77 Ma. This climate change was probably related to the waxing and waning of ephemeral (100 ky) small ice sheets in Antarctica during times of insolation minima and maxima. Drying and cooling after 72 Ma culminated from 68 to 66 Ma, mirroring trends in global δ18O data. Quantitative palynofloral analyses have the potential to provide realistic proxies for small-scale climate variability in the predominantly ice-free Late Cretaceous. 相似文献