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1.
Geography of crime research dates back to the early 1800s, most of which in English and in the context of the United States and Europe, but with a growing and significant literature studying the developing world. We contribute to this literature through an application of social disorganization theory in a Latin American context: Campinas, Brazil. We consider a number of property and violent crime types using census tracts as the spatial unit of analysis. Implementing a spatial regression method, we find support for social disorganization theory, but not as strong as similar studies in Europe and North America. However, because of the context of Campinas, Brazil, a different understanding of the local conditions proves to be important for understanding the geography of crime in this context. The implications of these results are discussed in the context of theoretical developments as well as crime prevention initiatives. 相似文献
2.
Ryan J. Bunting Oliver Yang Chang Christopher Cowen Richard Hankins Staci Langston Alexander Warner 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(1):34-46
The combination of crime mapping and geospatial analysis methods has enabled law enforcement agencies to develop more proactive methods of targeting crime-prone neighborhoods based on spatial patterns, such as hot spots and spatial proximity to specific points of interest. In this article, we investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of the neighborhood crimes of aggravated assault and larceny in 297 census tracts in Miami–Dade County from 2007 to 2015. We use emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA) to identify the spatial patterns of emerging, persistent, continuous, and sporadic hot spots. In addition, we use geographically weighted regression to analyze the spatial clustering effects of sociodemographic variables, poverty rate, median age, and ethnic diversity. The hot spots for larceny are much more diffused than those for aggravated assaults, which exhibit clustering in the north over Liberty City and Miami Gardens and in the south near Homestead, and the ethnic heterogeneity index has a moderate and positive effect on the incidence of both larceny and aggravated assaults. The findings suggest that law enforcement can better target prevention programs for violent versus property crime using geospatial analyses. Additionally, the ethnic concentration of neighborhoods influences crime differently in neighborhoods of different socioeconomic status, and future studies should account for spatial patterns when estimating conventional regression models. 相似文献
3.
Alina Ristea Mohammad Al Boni Bernd Resch Matthew S. Gerber Michael Leitner 《International journal of geographical information science》2020,34(9):1708-1739
ABSTRACT Sporting events attract high volumes of people, which in turn leads to increased use of social media. In addition, research shows that sporting events may trigger violent behavior that can lead to crime. This study analyses the spatial relationships between crime occurrences, demographic, socio-economic and environmental variables, together with geo-located Twitter messages and their ‘violent’ subsets. The analysis compares basketball and hockey game days and non-game days. Moreover, this research aims to analyze crime prediction models using historical crime data as a basis and then introducing tweets and additional variables in their role as covariates of crime. First, this study investigates the spatial distribution of and correlation between crime and tweets during the same temporal periods. Feature selection models are applied in order to identify the best explanatory variables. Then, we apply localized kernel density estimation model for crime prediction during basketball and hockey games, and on non-game days. Findings from this study show that Twitter data, and a subset of violent tweets, are useful in building prediction models for the seven investigated crime types for home and away sporting events, and non-game days, with different levels of improvement. 相似文献
4.
本文旨在识别盗窃犯罪易发地的主要类型、影响强度及其区域异质性特征,同时厘清地理探测器在犯罪地理研究中的适用性。利用北京中心城区的多源大数据,研究发现：① 在全域范围内,37类设施均属显著的盗窃易发地,道路边界、行政边界、用地边界也是盗窃高发的边缘地带,影响力突出的盗窃易发地更具备犯罪模式理论提及的犯罪引致条件。② 如社会解组理论所言,随着社会解组程度减弱,犯罪易发地的类型数量及其对盗窃分布的影响逐渐下降。除低解组区外,各类设施及边界的相对影响排序基本相同。③ 因未考虑混淆因素干扰,地理探测器容易高估解释变量的作用,与负二项回归结果的吻合度不高。而结合排除控制法,将混淆因素同质化的样本进行分区分析是规避外生变异和稳健运用地理探测器的可行路径。 相似文献
5.
《Urban geography》2013,34(3):187-211
Neighborhood variations in crime incidence rates are most commonly interpreted through the lens of social disorganization theory, or a "communities and crime" perspective. This approach typically articulates explanation for crime by focusing on the characteristics of communities—a unitary scale most commonly equated with neighborhoods. We argue that this perspective fails to recognize the importance of broader urban geographic contexts, and offer an extension that sees geographically contingent processes functioning at multiple scales simultaneously. We develop this perspective applied to the "spread effects" of public housing on violent crime in surrounding neighborhoods: these spread effects are conditioned by the nature of the urban contexts through which they operate. Specifically, deeply divided and racialized patterns of residential segregation at least partially define the contexts that condition public housing's effect on crime. We examine our perspective using early 1990s block group data for the City of Atlanta and find substantial evidence in support of our perspective. In particular, we find that Techwood Homes, the nation's first federally constructed public housing project, exerted different geographic spread effects in predominantly White than in predominantly Black portions of the city. By failing to recognize the complexity and contingency of public housing's geographic effect on crime in surrounding neighborhoods, previous approaches substantially overestimate crime in White areas, and underestimate crime in Black areas. 相似文献
6.
为揭示街道眼与防卫空间理论的分歧源头和适用条件,论文以北京中心城区为研究范围,整合法律文书、定位服务、街景图像、兴趣点等多源大数据,将犯罪机会与社会生态理论置于同一分析框架,探讨了可渗透性环境对盗窃犯罪分布的影响以及社会解组因素的调节作用。结果表明,土地利用密度、功能混合度、路网密度、沿街通透性等可渗透性特征与盗窃密度整体呈现正向关联。建成环境对犯罪行为的影响因社会生态分异而变化,随着居住不稳定性、途经人员流动性、就业人员流动性、人口异质性、社会经济弱势地位等社会解组程度的加深,可渗透性环境的犯罪引致作用将不断放大,防卫空间理论更具适用性。而在社会结构稳定的社区中,街道眼能够发挥自然监控作用,街道眼理论的解释力更强,现实生活中该类社区仍属少数,盲目采用新城市主义设计方法恐会加剧安全风险。 相似文献
7.
基于环境设计预防犯罪理论（CPTED）和社会失序理论,利用2012年10―12月在广州门禁小区进行的大规模入户调查数据,采用多层次回归模型从社区内部环境角度对广州门禁小区家庭的入室盗窃受害情况及其发生的环境机理进行研究。通过5个多层次回归模型的对比分析发现：家庭被盗情况主要受到家庭的住房特征和人口特征的影响,小区变量对家庭变量有非常重要的调节作用。住房特征、公共空间使用率、家庭人口特征和小区的正式控制机构失效度对家庭是否被盗有着非常显著的影响;环境形象和人口流动性、小区开放度和功能混合度通过对家庭特征的间接影响而影响家庭的被盗情况。 相似文献
8.
加拿大爱得蒙顿市犯罪问题的地理研究* 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
运用GIS技术和回归分析方法,分析加拿大爱得蒙顿市各类犯罪的空间分布规律。结果发现：城市犯罪分布的空间差异异常明显,城市内部存在少数极端的犯罪高发区;犯罪的空间分布遵循距离衰减规律,表现为距城市中心越近的地区犯罪发生密度越高,距城市中心越远的地区犯罪密度越低;犯罪发生密度与居住人口密度成正相关,即居住人口密度越高,越容易诱发犯罪,但不同类型的犯罪与居住人口密度的关联程度不一样;不同用地性质的区域犯罪发生密度存在明显差异,在各类用地中,商业区为城市犯罪的高发区。 相似文献
9.
Research within the geography of crime and spatial criminology literature most often show that crime is highly concentrated in particular places. Moreover, a subset of this literature has shown that the spatial patterns of these concentrations are different across crime types. This raises questions regarding the appropriateness of aggregating crime types (property and violent crime, for example) when the underlying spatial pattern is of interest. In this paper, using crime data from Campinas, Brazil, we investigate the crime concentrations and the similarities among different crime types across space. Similar to some recent research in another context, we find that crime is highly concentrated in Campinas but the ability to aggregate similar crime types at the street segment level is not generalizability when compared to a North American context. 相似文献
10.
Two common practices in modeling of crime when crime data is available for multiple years are using single-year crime data corresponding to census data and taking the average of crime rate (or count) over multiple years. Current theoretical and empirical literature provides little, if any, rationale in support of either practice. Averaging multiple years is purported to reduce heterogeneity and minimize the measurement error in the year-to-year emergence of crime. However, it is unclear how useful the analysis of averaged and smoothed data is for revealing the relationship between crimes and socio-demographic and economic characteristics of every single year. In order to more clearly understand these two approaches, this paper applies a seemingly unrelated regression model to assess the temporal stability of model parameters. The model accounts for spatial autocorrelation among crime rates and social disorganization variables at the block group level. 相似文献
11.
利用北京社会调查、法律文书、兴趣点、路网、定位数据,发现盗窃及暴力犯罪密度对犯罪恐惧感并无显著关联或影响偏弱,犯罪活动与犯罪恐惧感存在“匹配且具高安全性”“匹配且具高危险性”“不匹配且比主观感知更危险”“不匹配且比主观感知更安全”等类型。脆弱人群更易高估安全风险;防卫空间及街道眼理论分别适用于解释客观犯罪和主观感知,高密度、混合型、密路网的可渗透环境容易产生比主观感知更危险的情形;物理与社会失序、居住不稳定性会产生比主观感知更安全的情形;高人员流动性及高地位社区的居民则易低估安全风险;出入管控和环境维护能起到减犯罪、降恐惧的双重作用。 相似文献
12.
以“Web of ScienceTM核心合集”和CNKI核心文献库为数据源,运用CiteSpace软件进行文献计量分析,从发文时间、地区分布、学科分布、研究机构、关键词共现与高被引文献等方面,总结比较了2000年以来中外犯罪地理研究进展,并展望了未来的研究趋势。结果发现：1）国内外犯罪地理发文量整体呈现持续增长态势,美国发文量首位度明显。学科分布国外较为广泛,国内相对集中,且存在较大发展空间。研究机构之间的合作网络国外较强,国内机构联系较弱,后续研究力量正处于培育发展阶段。2）不同时期国内外研究关注的热点不同：国外侧重于暴力犯罪、恐怖主义犯罪、因种族歧视和性别歧视等引发的多类型犯罪研究,从微观到宏观,涉及地区、国家甚至全球层面;国内聚焦于城市社区“两抢一盗”犯罪、省域拐卖儿童犯罪和毒品犯罪等类型,微观和宏观并举,实证案例研究逐渐增多。3）随着多学科的交叉融合发展,国内外犯罪地理发展势头良好。犯罪分布模式、空间防控对策与犯罪风险模拟仍是当下较为活跃的研究议题,“3S”技术开发和大数据应用将成为犯罪地理研究的两条并行趋势线。未来需要以综合性思维审视犯罪地理环境,持续关注犯罪地理研究的潜在领域。同时,信息技术发展与计量模型应用为犯罪地理带来新契机,必须立足于当下国际社会环境,加强个人、组织和团体机构之间的研究合作,交流和分享经验成果,探索多样化的犯罪防控模式,并采取全球合作的方式应对区域所面临的犯罪挑战。 相似文献
13.
Several theories (e.g., routine activities, strain and social disorganization theories) suggest that there are effects of income inequality and concentrated disadvantage on crime. This study follows primarily the long line of social disorganization theorizing to explain the intraurban variation of homicide rates in Chicago. In addition to poverty, income inequality adds stress to individuals when they compare their situation to those around them. A localized income inequality (LII) index is implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) to measure the inequality between contiguous areas. Defining inequality in a localized context is important because geographic proximity permits close contacts between residents and thus reinforces the awareness of relative deprivation. This inequality index adds a new dimension to concentrated disadvantage in urban areas. The study shows that the new concentrated disadvantage measure is a strong predictor of homicide rates across three areal units of analysis in Chicago, i.e., census tracts, community areas and neighborhood clusters. 相似文献
14.
Investigations into the seasonal patterns of crime date back 180 years to the beginnings of spatial criminology. This original research by Adolphe Quetelet, and much subsequent work, has shown that various crimes have a seasonal component, but the strength and timing of the respective seasonalities vary by crime type. In this paper, we first investigate the existence of seasonality for a number of different crime types, but also the variations of seasonality across space. We find that not only do the various crime types exhibit seasonal patterns, but those seasonal patterns have relatively distinct spatial patterns. This has implications for theory and policy. 相似文献
15.
基于面域汇总数据的犯罪地理分析不仅存在MAUP局限,还会制约理论发展。本文将基于距离测度方法的DO指数用于犯罪地理研究,在连续空间上揭示2013—2018年北京盗窃、抢夺抢劫、暴力犯罪与32类城市功能的分布关系。研究表明：① 98%的“犯罪-功能”组合呈共聚分布,单一尺度分析极易低估犯罪发生地的种类数;② 由于罪犯在中等尺度上选择收益、风险、成本适中的概率最高,“犯罪-功能”组合的共聚尺度与程度多为倒U型关系,该规律有助补足日常活动理论和理性选择理论的空间视角;③ 随着监管加强,三种犯罪与所有功能的总体共聚程度渐趋下降,暴力犯罪的共聚尺度大于“两抢一盗”;④ 较之犯罪模式理论中的单一共聚类型,共聚组合可细分成大、中、小尺度强共聚型以及弱共聚型等小类。本研究将犯罪空间形成机制简化为犯罪点与功能点的几何关系,未来需克服混淆因素干扰、功能点均质化假设等。 相似文献
16.
Entertainment districts have high crime rates. Offences peak on the weekend during the operating hours of on-premises drinking establishments. To determine if proactive policing from May 1st to August 31st reduced the spatial density (kernel) or annual frequency of liquor infractions and assaults in Vancouver British Columbia Granville St. Entertainment Area (GEA) we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of crime pre (2006) and post (2010, 2013) the policing intervention. Crime occurred most frequently between 1:00am and 3:00am. The frequency of weekend liquor infractions significantly (α < 0.05) decreased during the proactive policing period. The magnitude of the reduction was greater for liquor infractions than assaults. Liquor infractions decreased from 121 events in 2006, to 53 events in 2010, to 91 events in 2013. Assaults decreased from 36 events in 2006, to 34 events in 2010, to 28 events in 2013. Future patrolling should focus on north-east end of Granville St. during early morning hours (1:00am-3:00am), and consider additional patrols, to increase crime reductions. In light of the recent trend to liberalize alcohol access across British Columbia we demonstrated that targeted policing strategies can reduce alcohol-attributable crime. We also provide fine temporal and spatial scale information on the patterns of crime creating evidence-based information to support policing strategies. 相似文献
17.
Despite progress being advanced with spatial approaches to crime and crime control, the geography of crime harm has to date received little attention. The recent development of “Crime Harm Indices”, which weight crimes by an estimate of the relative harm they cause, offers an opportunity to improve on volume based spatial analysis approaches to identify where crime harm concentrates.This study aims to address this issue via the use of a Crime Harm Index (CHI) developed for New Zealand. By contrast to localized ‘harm-spotting’ analysis, we apply a census unit based approach to identify, at a macro level, the neighborhoods and wider communities suffering the highest crime harm in New Zealand. This approach enables harm to be viewed not only as a total Index but as a rate controlled for population and allows for the identification of census based sociodemographic factors which predict harm. Specifically, this paper compares the CHI with the New Zealand Priority Locations Index (PLI), an existing census unit based crime analysis tool which combines crime and demographic variables to identify communities vulnerable to crime and disorder issues.In this study CHI and PLI scores were calculated for Census Area Units (normally containing 3000–5000 population) across New Zealand. Bivariate correlations and a general linear model were used to determine the relationships between the CHI and PLI and additional population related variables. The CHI and PLI were weakly correlated, with population size and urban/rural categorization also accounting for CHI variance. Mapping techniques are used to illustrate outlier locations where the CHI and PLI differ widely and to identify location features which may assist in explaining CHI/PLI differences.This work exemplifies a novel geographic approach to the problem of crime harm with implications for resource allocation at national through to local levels. Wider implications for the theory and practice of crime and crime harm control are discussed, along with limitations of the study and areas for further research. 相似文献
18.
William V. Ackerman 《The Professional geographer》1998,50(3):372-387
This research analyzes changes in crime rates by city size and determines the extent to which these changes can be explained by socioeconomic variables. More particularly it addresses rates of change in mean crime rates for violent and property crime between 1976–1984 and 1985–1994 for all U. S. cities, then compares results to Ohio cities. It provides a detailed analysis of changing crime rates in 111 Ohio cities with populations between 10,000 and 99,999 inhabitants and attempts to account for crime differentials between these cities employing linear regression and factor analysis. Results indicate that crime is significantly related to poverty and its associated conditions and processes. 相似文献
19.
以往关于作案地选择的研究,缺乏考虑不同属性群体间的空间差异。以中国ZG市为例,利用离散空间选择模型,基于不同年龄属性的视角,进行街头抢劫者作案地选择及影响因素的对比分析,并据此提出犯罪防控建议。研究发现：① 不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择存在显著的空间差异。即少年抢劫者趋向在劳动密集型产业集聚区和中小学密集区作案,而年轻的成年抢劫者仅趋向于劳动密集型产业集聚区,但成年抢劫者的作案地却偏向于客运站所在社区及其周边地区。② 年龄相关的活动节点、周围人口的监护作用和青少年人口比例是形成这种空间差异的主要因素。研究结果对犯罪防控与社会治理具有重要的参考意义,如：① 在青少年抢劫者频繁作案的劳动密集型产业集聚区,调控网吧、酒吧等年龄相关活动节点的数量。② 在成年抢劫者作案密集的客运站及其周边社区,规划一定数量周围人口的持续存在,以发挥出更好的监护作用。③ 在青少年人口比例较高的社区,通过问题青少年的摸底调查,加强精准引导与帮扶。论文首次验证了不同年龄的街头抢劫者作案地选择差异及成因,并在理论上弥补了犯罪者作案地选择缺乏细分人群的不足。 相似文献
20.
入室盗窃临近重复案件与孤立案件分布的影响因素对比研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以中国南方某特大城市YP区为例,结合犯罪地理学主要理论选取相关变量构建二元逻辑回归模型,探讨区域环境对入室盗窃临近重复案件和孤立案件分布的影响差异。研究发现：居民数量、银行&ATM机和公园集聚的区域发生临近重复案件的概率比孤立案件更高,而道路密度高的社区难以发生临近重复案件;青少年人口比重高和低租金住户多的社区会加剧弱势群体、问题人群的集中趋势,临近重复犯罪发生的可能性也会随之上升,其中青少年人口的影响程度高于低租金住户。研究结果可对微观社区层面入室盗窃临近重复犯罪的治安防控与警务政策制定提供一定的参考。 相似文献