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1.
Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
2.
AbstractQuantifying the reliability of distributed hydrological models is an important task in hydrology to understand their ability to estimate energy and water fluxes at the agricultural district scale as well the basin scale for water resources management in drought monitoring and flood forecasting. In this context, the paper presents an intercomparison of simulated representative equilibrium temperature (RET) derived from a distributed energy water balance model and remotely-sensed land surface temperature (LST) at spatial scales from the agricultural field to the river basin. The main objective of the study is to evaluate the use of LST retrieved from operational remote sensing data at different spatial and temporal resolutions for the internal validation of a distributed hydrological model to control its mass balance accuracy as a complementary method to traditional calibration with discharge measurements at control river cross-sections. Modelled and observed LST from different radiometric sensors located on the ground surface, on an aeroplane and a satellite are compared for a maize field in Landriano (Italy), the agricultural district of Barrax (Spain) and the Upper Po River basin (Italy). A good ability of the model in reproducing the observed LST values in terms of mean bias error, root mean square error, relative error and Nash-Sutcliffe index is shown.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten 相似文献
3.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1018-1034
Abstract A conceptual hydrological water balance model has been developed and employed to assess the water availability in a mid-Himalayan watershed and analyse the dynamics of water supply and its utilization under different scenarios arising out of present and future developments. The model was calibrated and validated using daily runoff and rainfall data at different locations in the watershed. The water availability in streams and springs to meet the human, animal and crop requirements was assessed, and was found to vary in different quarters of the year with inequalities existing in different parts of the watershed. The model was successfully applied to analyse the impact of land-use changes and weather aberrations on water availability in the present and future scenarios. The drought scenarios are more critical in causing water scarcity in a given location, compared to the impact of land-use changes. The findings can be applied for assessing, planning and allocation of water resources among different sectors of water use in hilly areas and to make informed decisions during critical periods of water scarcity. 相似文献
4.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):418-431
Abstract The water balance of the closed freshwater Lake Awassa was estimated using a spreadsheet hydrological model based on long-term monthly hydrometeorological data. The model uses monthly evaporation, river discharge and precipitation data as input. The net groundwater flux is obtained from model simulation as a residual of other water balance components. The result revealed that evaporation, precipitation, and runoff constitute 131, 106 and 83 × 106 m3 of the annual water balance of the lake, respectively. The annual net groundwater outflow from the lake to adjacent basins is 58 × 106 m3. The simulated and recorded lake levels fit well for much of the simulation period (1981–1999). However, for recent years, the simulated and recorded levels do not fit well. This may be explained in terms of the combined effects of land-use change and neotectonism, which have affected the long-term average water balance. With detailed long-term hydrogeological and meteorological data, investigation of the subsurface hydrodynamics, and including the effect of land-use change and tectonism on surface water and groundwater fluxes, the water balance model can be used efficiently for water management practice. The result of this study is expected to play a positive role in future sustainable use of water resources in the catchment. 相似文献
5.
AbstractThis article addresses the critical need for a better quantitative understanding of how water resources from the Hérault River catchment in France have been influenced by climate variability and the increasing pressure of human activity over the last 50 years. A method is proposed for assessing the relative impacts of climate and growing water demand on the decrease in discharge observed at various gauging stations in the periods 1961–1980 and 1981–2010. An annual water balance at the basin scale was calculated first, taking into account precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water withdrawals and water discharge. Next, the evolution of the seasonal variability in hydroclimatic conditions and water withdrawals was studied. The catchment was then divided into zones according to the main geographical characteristics to investigate the heterogeneity of the climatic and human dynamics. This delimitation took into account the distribution of climate, topography, lithology, land cover and water uses, as well as the availability of discharge series. At the area scale, annual water balances were calculated to understand the internal changes that occurred in the catchment between both past periods. The decrease in runoff can be explained by the decrease in winter precipitation in the upstream areas and by the increase during summer in both water withdrawals and evapotranspiration in the downstream areas, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Thus, water stress increased in summer by 35%. This work is the first step of a larger research project to assess possible future changes in the capacity to satisfy water demand in the Hérault River catchment, using a model that combines hydrological processes and water demand.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
6.
AbstractWater balance studies with stable water isotopes have rarely been conducted in remote and tropical wetland areas. As such, little is known regarding the water balance and groundwater–surface water interaction in the Pantanal, one of the largest and most pristine wetlands in the world. We applied MINA TrêS, a water balance model utilizing stable water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) and chloride (Cl-) to assess the dry-season hydrological processes controlling groundwater–surface water interactions and the water balance of six floodplain lakes in the northern Pantanal, Brazil. Qualitatively, all lakes exhibited similarity in hydrological controls. Quantitatively, they differed significantly due to morphological differences in controlling groundwater inflow and lake volume. Our approach is readily transferable to other remote and tropical wetland systems with minimal data input requirements, which is useful in regions with sparse hydrometric monitoring.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz 相似文献
7.
本文概述了国际大地测量学与地球物理学联合会(IUGG)的历史发展,介绍了IUGG的近况。IUGG作为一个致力于研究地球及把研究所获得的知识应用于造福人类社会的科学组织,近年来在推动地球科学各相关学科的交叉融合、加强国际合作、关心与帮助发展中国家或地区地球科学的发展以及探讨地球科学未来的发展趋向等方面,开展了许多活动,这些活动对于认识人类赖于生存的、不断变化的行星地球、促进人与自然的和谐相处以及人类社会的发展具有重要的意义。 相似文献
8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):278-291
Abstract Hydrological and glaciological data were gathered in the watershed (1.37 km2) of the Antizana Glacier 15 (0.7 km2) in the periods 1997–2002 and 1995–2005, respectively. In addition, tracer experiments were carried out to analyse the flow through permeable morainic deposits located between the glacier snout and the runoff gauging station. Over 11 years, the mean specific net balance of the glacier was negative (–627 mm w.e.), despite the occurrence of positive values in the La Niña years (1999–2000). From the glacier net mass balance between 1997 and 2002, it was found that the mean flow originating from ice melt was significantly higher than the mean discharge measured at the hydrological station. Analyses of tracer experiments and of the different components of the hydrological balance suggest groundwater flow that originates below the glacier accounts for the remaining water. This result is important for regional analyses of available water resources and for the relationship between hydro-cryospheric processes and volcanic activity. 相似文献
9.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):314-324
Abstract An approach to the global estimation of water balance elements and their spatial distribution using GIS is presented. It is primarily related to the catchments where measured data are scarce and the spatial differentiation of the hydrological characteristics is not possible without climatological data. Emphasis is placed on estimating the water balance of transboundary karstic aquifers, where problems concerning the hydrometeorological data, catchment boundaries and determination of water balance elements in general are far more complex. The runoff estimation was done using the Turc and Langbein methods, which are the most frequently applied in this region. The years 1961–1990 were used as the reference period. Based on comparison of the results, the applicability of the methods is discussed. The approach proposed is suitable for estimation of water balance in the study area and may also be applied in a wider region. 相似文献
10.
T. Estrela 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1154-1167
Abstract Impacts on water resources produced by climate change can be exacerbated when occurring in regions already presenting low water resources levels and frequent droughts, and subject to imbalances between water demands and available resources. Within Europe, according to existing climate change scenarios, water resources will be severely affected in Spain. However, the detection of those effects is not simple, because the natural variability of the water cycle and the effects of water abstractions on flow discharges complicate the establishment of clear trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models. This paper reviews water resources and their variability in Spain, the recent modelling studies on hydrological effects of climate change, expected impacts on water resources, the implications in river basins and the current policy actions. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Estrela, T., Pérez-Martin, M.A., and Vargas, E., 2012. Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1154–1167. 相似文献
11.
ABSTRACTWith global climate change and impacts of human activity, the water cycle, which has a close relationship with local water resources, has changed rapidly. Based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, five relatively independent global climate models are selected from 47 CMIP5 models to simulate future climatic conditions. Data are downscaled to the local projection, with bias neutralized before applying them to the hydrological models, by which availability of future water resources are calculated for the Dongting Lake basin. The results show that the water resources of the Dongting Lake basin are likely to increase in the future, but be distributed more unevenly. All scenarios indicate that water availability will increase during the flood season and decrease during the dry season, with a prominent increase in annual discharge. The scenarios also predict that the greater the greenhouse gas emissions, the more uneven the water distribution becomes. Overall, the water resources of the Dongting Lake catchment show the same increasing and unevenly distributed trend in the future, which could be further accelerated by human activities.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor Q. Zhang 相似文献
12.
ABSTRACTClimate change may have significant consequences for water resources availability and management at the basin scale. This is particularly true for areas already suffering from water stress, such as the Mediterranean area. This work focused on studying these impacts in the Llobregat basin supplying the Barcelona region. Several climate projections, adapted to the spatiotemporal resolution of the study, were combined with a daily hydrological model to estimate future water availability. Depending on the scenario and the time period, different assessment indicators such as reliability and resilience showed a future decrease in water resources (up to 40%), with drought periods becoming more frequent. An additional uncertainty analysis showed the high variability of the results (annual water availability ranging from 147 hm3/year to 274 hm3/year), thus making accurate projections difficult. Finally, the study illustrates how climate change could be taken into account to provide adaptive measures for the future.
Editor M.C. Acreman; Associate editor J. Thompson 相似文献
13.
Water is our most precious and arguably most undervalued natural resource. It is essential for life on our planet, for food production and economic development. Moreover, water plays a fundamental role in shaping weather and climate. However, with the growing global population, the planet’s water resources are constantly under threat from overuse and pollution. In addition, the effects of a changing climate are thought to be leading to an increased frequency of extreme weather causing floods, landslides and drought. The need to understand and monitor our environment and its resources, including advancing our knowledge of the hydrological cycle, has never been more important and apparent. The best approach to do so on a global scale is from space. This paper provides an overview of the major components of the hydrological cycle, the status of their observations from space and related data products and models for hydrological variable retrievals. It also lists the current and planned satellite missions contributing to advancing our understanding of the hydrological cycle on a global scale. Further details of the hydrological cycle are substantiated in several of the other papers in this Special Issue. 相似文献
14.
Abstract The increasing water demand is a concern affecting many regions in the Mediterranean Basin. To overcome this situation rim countries resorted during the last decades to a massive mobilization of their water resources, often resulting in excessive water exploitation. In such a context, understanding the effects of present recharge and aquifer salinization is crucial for correct water management. Understanding the present hydrogeological situation of coastal plains requires the knowledge of both their past morphologic conditions and their recent geological evolution. Within this framework, this paper presents a review of water related problems in the Mediterranean Basin. It suggests a conceptual model for groundwater resources in Mediterranean coastal plains, deriving from the present and past recharge processes. Special attention is paid to providing a better understanding of climate change impacts on water quantity and quality, and conservation of ecological diversity. Citation Re, V. & Zuppi, G. M. (2011) Influence of precipitation and deep saline groundwater on the hydrological systems of Mediterranean coastal plains: a general overview. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 966–980. 相似文献
15.
Estimation of submarine groundwater discharge in the Il‐Gwang watershed using water budget analysis and 222Rn mass balance 
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下载免费PDF全文 Yong‐Seok Gwak Sang‐Hyun Kim Yong‐Woo Lee Boo‐Keun Khim Se‐Yeong Hamm Sung‐Wok Kim 《水文研究》2014,28(11):3761-3775
Submarine groundwater discharges (SGD) were investigated in a marine watershed in south‐eastern Korea using water budget analysis and a 222Rn mass balance model. Multi‐layered TOPMODEL added hydrological assumption was used to estimate groundwater components in the water budget analysis. Field observations of soil moisture, rainfall, runoff and groundwater fluctuations were used for calibration and validation of the hydrologic model. Based on observed hydrological data and terrain analyses, parameters for the hydrologic model were delineated and used to describe several hydrologic responses in the watershed. SGD estimations by 222Rn mass balance method were also performed at Il‐Gwang bay in July, 2010, and May, June, July and Nov. 2011. The estimated groundwater through hydrologic modeling and water balance analysis was 1.3x106 m3/year, which rapidly increased during typhoon season due to heavy rainfall and permeable geologic structure. The estimated groundwater was approximately 3.7–27.1% of SGD as evaluated by 222Rn mass balance method ranges 3.44 and 17.45 m3m?2year?1. Even though SGD is predominantly influenced by tide fluctuation, the head gradient (difference) from hydrologic processes associated with heavy rainfalls can also have extra significant influences. Comprehensive understanding of SGD evaluation can be improved through a simultaneous application of both these approaches. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
16.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract Abstract An annual water balance model of Lake Victoria is derived for the period 1925–2000. Regression techniques are used to derive annual inputs to the water balance, based on lake rainfall data, measured and derived inflows and estimated evaporation during the historical period. This approach acknowledges that runoff is a nonlinear function of lake rainfall. A longer inflow series is produced here which is representative of the whole inflow to the lake, rather than just from individual tributaries. The results show a good simulation of annual lake levels and outflows and capture the high lake level in 1997–1998. Climate change scenarios, from a recent global climate model experiment, are applied to the lake rainfall inflow series and evaporation data to estimate future water balances of the lake. The scenarios produce a potential fall in lake levels by the 2030s horizon, and a rise by the 2080s horizon. A discussion of the application of climate change data to this complex hydrological system is presented. 相似文献
17.
ABSTRACT Water from the alluvium of ephemeral rivers in Zimbabwe is increasingly being used. These alluvial aquifers are recharged annually from infiltrating floodwater. Nonetheless, the size of this water resource is not without limit and an understanding of the hydrological processes of an alluvial aquifer is required for its sustainable management. This paper presents the development of a water balance model, which estimates the water level in an alluvial aquifer recharged by surface flow and rainfall, while allowing for abstraction, evaporation and other losses. The model is coupled with a watershed model, which generates inflows from upland catchment areas and tributaries. Climate, hydrological, land cover and geomorphological data were collected as inputs to both models as well as observed flow and water levels for model calibration and validation. The sand river model was found to be good at simulating the observed water level and was most sensitive to porosity and seepage. 相似文献
18.
Francisco Pellicer‐Martínez Irene González‐Soto José Miguel Martínez‐Paz 《水文研究》2015,29(19):4361-4366
In many catchments, the geographical demarcation does not coincide with the limits of the aquifers, so groundwater may be exchanged beyond their topographic boundaries. By studying groundwater exchanges, the natural resources of a catchment can be better assessed, and the divergences between hydrological models and measurements can be explained. The aim of this work is to reveal the importance of including groundwater exchanges in the hydrological modelling of some catchments, using a water balance model. For this purpose, a simple example is conducted. The so‐called parent model scheme is modified to only allow groundwater exchanges, and it is applied to the headwater of the Segura River Basin District, located in the southeast of Spain. This area is selected because groundwater plays an important role in surface hydrology. The results reveal that groundwater exchanges cannot be neglected in some catchments when assessing water resources because their integration in the hydrological model corrects errors in the water balance. Moreover, this paper proves that water balance models are a useful tool for estimating groundwater exchanges between catchments, which can be contrasted with more complex distributed models or isotopic tracers if there is enough information available. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
19.
Yeugeniy M. Gusev Vladimir A. Semenov Olga N. Nasonova Evgeny E. Kovalev 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(8):1181-1199
Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich 相似文献
20.
AbstractThe Nema is a river in western Senegal where only a minority of inhabitants has access to drinking water. Rainfall has been decreasing in this region since the 1960s. It is crucial to understand how this change affects groundwater recharge. The objective of this research is to determine the current proportions of groundwater recharge, runoff, subsurface runoff and evapotranspiration using a simulation approach. The Nash criterion and water balance error were used to evaluate the quality of the simulations. The following results were obtained: the Nash criterion was 0.73 for calibration (0.73 for validation), and the water balance error was ?0.35% and 0.005%, respectively, for the hydrological years 1995/96 and 1997/98. Evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge are the main processes involved.
Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Hughes 相似文献