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1.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4)
Abstract The management of water excesses and deficits is a major task in semiarid Mediterranean regions, where the variability of rainfall inputs is high at different time and space scales. Thus intense hydrometeorological events, which generate both potential resource and hazards, are of major interest. A simple method is proposed, with the example of the Skhira basin (192 km2) in central Tunisia, to account for the event space–time variability of rainfall in a rainfall–runoff model, in order to check its influence on the shape, magnitude and timing of resulting hydrographs. The transfer function used is a geomorphology-based unit hydrograph with an explicit territorial significance. Simulations made for highly variable events show the relevance of this method, seen as the first step of a downward approach, and its robustness with respect to the quality and the density of rainfall data. 相似文献
2.
AbstractThis review paper critically examines one of the most popular flood hydrograph modelling techniques for ungauged basins, the synthetic unit hydrograph (SUH), and its recent developments and advances. For this purpose, the SUH models were first grouped into four main classes, as follows: (a) traditional or empirical models; (b) conceptual models; (c) probabilistic models; and (d) geomorphological models. It was found that the geomorphological class is the most useful and interesting, since it is able to employ topographic information, so limiting the role of the calibration parameters. This review is expected to be helpful to hydrologists, water managers and decision-makers searching for models to study the flood hydrograph, modelling techniques and related processes in ungauged basins. It was completed as the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Decade (2003–2012) on predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), drew to a close. Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. GrimaldiCitation Singh, P.K., Mishra, S.K., and Jain, M.K., 2013. A review of the Synthetic Unit Hydrograph: from the empirical UH to advanced geomorphological methods. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 239–261. 相似文献
3.
B. Zhao Y. -K. Tung J. -C. Yang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1994,8(4):269-280
This paper discusses the derivation of a unit hydrograph by multiple storm analysis using least squares methods. Variations of least squares method was generalized using the framework of weighted ridge analysis. The paper also shows two theorems to support using multi-storm analysis to derive UH. In addition, an issue was addressed on the scaling effect in the conventional multi-storm analysis which could create potential bias toward large storms in deriving a multi-storm UH. For that, a simple scaling procedure was proposed to reduce such potential bias problem. Numerical investigations were conducted to examine the performance of the scaling procedure by comparing with the conventional multi-storm analysis (without scaling) and the HEC-1 weighing procedures. Based on various performance criteria using a total of 39 storms from three watersheds, the proposed scaling procedure was found to produce a quite desirable UH. 相似文献
4.
B. Zhao Y. -K. Tung K. -C. Yeh J. -C. Yang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):33-50
Unit hydrographs (UHs), along with design rainfalls, are frequently used to determine the discharge hydrograph for design
and evaluation of hydraulic structures. Due to the presence of various uncertainties in its derivation, the resulting UH is
inevitably subject to uncertainty. Consequently, the performance of hydraulic structures under the design storm condition
is uncertain. This paper integrates the linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation with the UH theory and routing techniques
to evaluate the reliability of hydraulic structures. The linear constraint is considered because the water volume of each
generated design direct runoff hydrograph should be equal to that of the design effective rainfall hyetograph or the water
volume of each generated UH must be equal to one inch (or cm) over the watershed. For illustration, the proposed methodology
is applied to evaluate the overtopping risk of a hypothetical flood detention reservoir downstream of Tong-Tou watershed in
Taiwan. 相似文献
5.
Reliability analysis of hydraulic structures considering unit hydrograph uncertainty 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Unit hydrographs (UHs), along with design rainfalls, are frequently used to determine the discharge hydrograph for design
and evaluation of hydraulic structures. Due to the presence of various uncertainties in its derivation, the resulting UH is
inevitably subject to uncertainty. Consequently, the performance of hydraulic structures under the design storm condition
is uncertain. This paper integrates the linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation with the UH theory and routing techniques
to evaluate the reliability of hydraulic structures. The linear constraint is considered because the water volume of each
generated design direct runoff hydrograph should be equal to that of the design effective rainfall hyetograph or the water
volume of each generated UH must be equal to one inch (or cm) over the watershed. For illustration, the proposed methodology
is applied to evaluate the overtopping risk of a hypothetical flood detention reservoir downstream of Tong-Tou watershed in
Taiwan. 相似文献
6.
ABSTRACTA hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed based on the combined concept of Clark’s unit hydrograph and its spatial decomposition methods, incorporating refined spatially variable flow dynamics to implement hydrological simulation for spatially distributed rainfall–runoff flow. In Distributed-Clark, the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number method is utilized to estimate spatially distributed runoff depth and a set of separated unit hydrographs is used for runoff routing to obtain a direct runoff flow hydrograph. Case studies (four watersheds in the central part of the USA) using spatially distributed (Thiessen polygon-based) rainfall data of storm events were used to evaluate the model performance. Results demonstrate relatively good fit to observed streamflow, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) of 0.84 and coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.86, as well as a better fit in comparison with outputs of spatially averaged rainfall data simulations for two models including HEC-HMS. 相似文献
7.
Nonlinear transformation of unit hydrograph 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Unit hydrograph (UH) and its numerous derivatives have been popular for estimation of flood hydrographs. Two major assumptions still overshadow UH applications. One is the linearity and the other is time invariance. In theory, only peak discharge of an equilibrium hydrograph follows linear proportionality to excess rainfall intensity. In trying to relax the linearity constraint, this paper aims to propose a nonlinear way of transforming a given UH to other general hydrographs. The transformation or mapping technique relies on a simple rainfall ratio raised to a power less than unity. The case of nonlinear transformation is illustrated for a number of watershed geometries with either known kinematic wave analytic solutions or observed data. The nonlinear UH approach also relaxes the assumption of constant time base of the UH. The proposed nonlinear UH transformation may thus be viewed as a major step in closing the gap between physically based and traditional UH-based surface runoff simulation approaches. 相似文献
8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Résumé Des mesures hydrométriques classiques et l'imagerie 2-D de résistivité électrique (IRE) détaillée ont été combinées avec le prélèvement de traceurs pour identifier les processus hydrologiques en jeu dans un bassin versant semi-aride de la province Cap-Oriental, en Afrique du Sud. L'étude des événements de précipitation et d'écoulement a souligné la forte relation qui existe entre les précipitations et les caractéristiques de la génération des écoulements. L'observation du potentiel hydrique du sol ainsi que du niveau d'eau souterraine a mis en évidence le développement d'une nappe perchée dans le sol. Ces résultats sont confirmés par des séparations d'hydrogrammes à base de traceurs et illustrent le rôle important des écoulements souterrains superficiels. L'étude par IRE a permis de mieux connaître la structure du sous-sol. Finalement, l'étude par IRE, combinée avec des mesures obtenues par réflectométrie en domaine temporel (TDR), a permis d'extrapoler à des mesures sélectives de teneur en eau. Pour récapituler, l'utilisation et la combinaison de différentes méthodes de terrain ont mené au développement d'un modèle conceptuel du fonctionnement hydrologique de ce bassin versant. Le rôle dominant des mécanismes de subsurface a été démontré. 相似文献
9.
A distributed overland flow model is presented and the test results compared with those of the unit hydrograph (UH) model. Infiltration excess in the overland model was calculated using both a modified Green and Ampt (G–A) method and a more complicated method that keeps track of the soil moisture content. The two‐dimensional partial differential flow equations with kinematic flow approximation were solved using both backward‐central explicit and implicit finite‐difference schemes. Moreover, a baseflow component was added to the flow model. Each part of the model was built by replacing a process by a parallel process or by adding a completely new component. When the model was developed and validated in small agricultural fields in southern Finland, comparisons were made between corresponding processes and the significance of added components were estimated in order to find out whether increased model complexity improves the model performance. Apart from the basic model, all the other distributed models outperformed the UH approach. The implicit scheme was clearly more accurate than the explicit scheme, and the baseflow component improved the results significantly. There was no major difference between the performances of the infiltration models, but the G–A method was more stable and much faster. The approaches that were best in the calibration were also the best in the verification. The full distributed model provides a potential method for running water‐quality models and testing their different processes. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Changes in trend and quasi-periodicities are sought in the time series of river discharges in all major South American basins. The relationship between trends and quasi-periodicities found and climate variations on interannual and longer time scales are discussed. Consideration of multiple rivers gives insight into the geographical extent of hydrological signals and climate impacts. It is found that the streamflow of all major rivers of South America has experienced an increased trend since the early 1970s. It is suggested that this simultaneity may reflect the impact of a large-scale climate change. All the time series of river streamflows that were analysed show El Niño-like periodicities. Only for La Plata Basin do these explain a larger part of the total variance than the other quasi-periodicities. There are two other quasi-oscillations in the time series analysed: one of them with a longer period—around 17 years—and the other of about 9 years. Previous work has related these oscillations to sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic Ocean. 相似文献
11.
A guiding principle in hydrological modelling should be to keep the number of calibration parameters to a minimum. A reduced number of parameters to be calibrated, while maintaining the accuracy and detail required by modern hydrological models, will reduce parameter and model structure uncertainty and improve model diagnostics. In this study, the dynamics of runoff are derived from the distribution of distances from points in the catchments to the nearest stream. This distribution is unique for each catchment and can be determined from a geographical information system. The distribution of distances, will, when a celerity of (subsurface) flow is introduced, provide a distribution of travel times, or a unit hydrograph (UH). For spatially varying levels of saturation deficit, we have different celerities and, hence, different UHs. Runoff is derived from the superposition of the different UHs. This study shows how celerities can be estimated if we assume that recession events represent the combined UHs for different levels of saturation deficit. A new soil moisture routine which estimates saturated and unsaturated volumes of subsurface water and with only one parameter to calibrate is included in the new model. The performance of the new model is compared with that of the Swedish HBV model and is found to perform equally well for eight Norwegian catchments although the number of parameters to be calibrated in the module concerning soil moisture and runoff dynamics is reduced from seven in the HBV model to one in the new model. It is also shown that the new model has a more realistic representation of the subsurface hydrology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract Artificial neural network (ANN) models provide huge potential for simulating nonlinear behaviour of hydrological systems. However, the potential of ANN is yet to be fully exploited due to the problems associated with improving the model generalization performance. Generalization refers to the ability of a neural network to correctly process input data that have not been used for calibrating the neural network model. In the hydrological context, better generalization performance implies higher precision of forecasting. The primary objectives of this study are to explore new measures for improving the generalization performance of an ANN-based rainfall–runoff model, and to evaluate the applicability of the new measures. A modified neural network model (entitled goal programming (GP) neural network) for modelling the rainfall–runoff process has been developed, in which three enhancements are made as compared to the widely-used backpropagation (BP) network. The three enhancements are (a) explicit integration of hydrological prior knowledge into the neural network learning; (b) incorporation of a modified training objective function; and (c) reduction of network sensitivity to input errors. Seven watersheds across a range of climatic conditions and watershed areas in China were selected for examining the alternative networks. The results demonstrate that the GP consistently outperformed the BP both in the calibration and verification periods and three proposed measures yielded improvement of performance. 相似文献
13.
The Navier–Stokes-α equation is a regularised form of the Euler equation that has been employed in representing the sub-grid scales in large-eddy simulations. Determined efforts have been made to place it on a secure deductive foundation. This requires two steps to be completed. The first is fundamental and consists of establishing from the equations governing the fluid flow, a relationship between two velocities called by Holm (Chaos, 2002a, 12, 518) the “filtered” and “unfiltered” velocities. The second consists of the relation between these two velocities. Until now, the preferred route to the first objective has been variational, by varying the action using Hamilton's principle. Soward and Roberts (J. Fluid Mech., 2008, 604, 297) followed that variational route and established the existence of an important but unwelcome term omitted by Holm in his derivation. It is shown here that the Soward and Roberts result may be derived from Euler's equation by a direct approach with considerably greater efficiency. Holm achieved the second objective by making a “Taylor hypothesis”, which we use here to evaluate the unwelcome term missing from his analysis of the first step. The resulting model equations differ from those of Holm's α model, and the attractive mean Kelvin's circulation theorem that follows from his α equations is no longer valid. For that reason, we call the term omitted by Holm unwelcome. 相似文献
14.
Ammar Mlayah Eduardo Anselmo Ferreira Da Silva Fethi Lachaal Samia Khadhar Abdelkrim Charef Fernando Noronha 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):686-705
Résumé Le Nord-Ouest de la Tunisie renferme plus que 81% des eaux de surface et 95% des mines et gîtes miniers. Le bassin versant de l'Oued Mellègue, situé dans cette zone, englobe 13 mines de plomb, zinc, fer, strontium, fluor, barium et phosphates. L'impact des rejets de ces mines sur les eaux de surface a été apprécié grâce à plusieurs compagnes d’échantillonnage. Les résultats d'analyse par ICP/MS de ces échantillons montrent qu'ils renferment des quantités non négligeables d'Al, As, B, Ba, Br, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Sr, U et de Zn. L'analyse des ces éléments dans les eaux du Mellègue, de ses affluents et dans la retenue de Nebeur montre que leurs concentrations sont inférieures aux normes d'eau potable. Ce comportement pourrait être dû à la nature des affleurements géologiques formés par des carbonates des argiles et des évaporites, à l'absence de cours d'eau drainant directement les rejets, à la formation de minéraux secondaires caractérisés par une importante rétention des métaux et à l’étendue des bassins versants non pollués. 相似文献
15.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are general-purpose techniques that can be used for nonlinear data-driven rainfall–runoff modelling. The key issue to construct a good model by means of ANNs is to understand their structural features and the problems related to their construction. Indeed, the quantity and quality of data, the type of noise and the mathematical properties of the algorithm for estimating the usual large number of parameters (weights) are crucial for the generalization performances of ANNs. However, it is well known that ANNs may suffer from poor generalization properties due to the high number of parameters and non-Gaussian data noise. Therefore, in the first part of this paper, the features and problems of ANNs are discussed. Eight Avoiding Overfitting Techniques are then presented, considering that these are methods for improving the generalization of ANNs. For this reason, they have been tested on two case studies—rainfall–runoff data from two drainage basins in the south of Italy—in order to gain insight into their properties and to investigate if there is one that absolutely gives the best performance. 相似文献
16.
Résumé Les espaces urbanisés soumis à des risques modérés d'inondation pour les vies humaines sont souvent peu considérés dans les études sur la vulnérabilité aux risques naturels en dépit des enjeux qu'ils représentent en termes de gestion de crise. Comment les riverains y font-ils face au danger et quelles sont leurs « bonnes raisons » d'agir? A partir de l’étude socio-géographique de deux inondations récentes (2000 et 2003) dans la périphérie toulousaine (Sud-Ouest de la France), nous montrons que les caractéristiques de l'aléa dans les vallées étudiées influencent les représentations du risque et par conséquent les motivations à se protéger. Face au risque majeur, la vulnérabilité sociale se trouve ainsi augmentée. Pour améliorer la résilience des populations, il convient d'adapter la communication sur les risques: personnaliser l'information, améliorer la compréhension de l’événement vécu et mobiliser de nouvelles formes de médiation entre gestionnaires et riverains. Editeur Z.W. Kundzewicz Citation Becerra, S., Peltier, A., Antoine, J.M., Labat, D., Chorda, J., Ribolzi, O., Daupras, F., et Dartus, D., 2013. Comprendre les comportements face à un risque modéré d'inondation. Etude de cas dans le périurbain toulousain (Sud-Ouest de la France). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 945–965. 相似文献
17.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract The effect of land-use change on the flood frequency curve (FFC) in a natural catchment is analysed. To achieve this, a simple methodology for the derivation of FFCs in land-use change scenarios is proposed. The adopted methodology, using a stochastic model in Monte Carlo simulation of FFCs, was found to provide a useful framework for detecting changes in flood magnitudes in both pre- and post-fire conditions. In particular, the importance of the antecedent soil moisture condition in the determination of the flood frequency distribution was analysed. The analysis of FFCs for pre- and post-fire conditions shows an increase in the average value of Curve Number and a decrease in the catchment time lag. The derivation of FFCs shows a clear increase in flood quantiles. For the post-fire conditions, the FFC exhibits higher quantiles of the peak discharges showing a reduction in frequency of occurrence. This variation is more significant for low-return period quantiles than for high-return period quantiles. The results of the catchment studies reported here support the hypothesis that the hydrological response of the watershed changes as a result of fire, especially during the first years following a fire event. 相似文献
18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1)
Abstract Abstract MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a new generation remote sensing (RS) sensor and its applications in hydrology and water resources have attracted much attention. To overcome the problems of slow response in flood disaster monitoring based on traditional RS techniques in China, the Flood Disaster Monitoring and Assessing System (FDMAS), based on MODIS and a Geographic Information System (GIS), was designed and applied to Dongting Lake, Hunan Province, China. The storage curve of Dongting Lake for 1995 was obtained using 1:10 000 topographic map data and then a relationship between water level at the Chenglingji hydrological station and lake area was derived. A new relationship between water level and lake area was obtained by processing MODIS images of Dongting Lake from April 2002 to April 2003 and the influence of lake area variation on water level was analysed with the 1996 flood data. It was found that the water level reduction reached 0.64 m for the 1996 flood if the original lake area curve was replaced with the area curve of 2002. This illustrates that the flood water level has been considerably reduced as a result of the increased area of Dongting Lake since the Chinese Central Government’s ?return land to lake? policy took effect in 1998. 相似文献
19.
A practical estimation of Clark IUH parameters using root selection and linear programming 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The values of the parameters of the Clark instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) are often relying on the subjective decision of the researcher, which leads to large variations of their values. Therefore, an objective method minimizing the subjective judgement in the IUH modelling procedure while providing a reduced range of acceptable values is proposed. The proposed method uses a basin average IUH to mitigate the robustness problem of the Clark IUH parameters. Using linear system theory, the z‐transform is applied to the average IUH and then the IUH polynomial is factored into the recession and time‐area curve (TAC) components based on a convolution relation between the Clark IUH parameters. During this calculation, the root selection method was adopted to verify the storage coefficient R from the recession component and a linear programming technique was applied for determining the TAC for the basin of interest. The Wi River basin was used to test the applicability of the proposed method. The results showed that the components of a single reservoir and the TAC for Clark IUH were separated effectively, and acceptable values for the parameters were obtained. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2)
Abstract Abstract The role of accuracy in the representation of infiltration on the effectiveness of real-time flood forecasting models was investigated. A simple semi-distributed model of conceptual type with adaptive estimate of hydraulic characteristics included in the infiltration component was selected. Infiltration was described by a very accurate approach recently formulated for complex rainfall patterns, or alternatively through a simpler formulation known as an extension of the classical time compression approximation. The results indicated that, for situations involving a significant rainfall variability in space, the inaccuracy in the representation of infiltration cannot be corrected by the adaptive component of the rainfall–runoff model. A preliminary analysis of the role of an approximation of saturated hydraulic conductivity to be used in each homogeneous area of the semi-distributed model used both in non-adaptive version and in real-time is also presented. 相似文献