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1.
MICHAEL F. GOODCHILD SUN GUOQING YANG SHIREN 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(2):87-103
Abstract An error model for spatial databases is defined here as a stochastic process capable of generating a population of distorted versions of the same pattern of geographical variation. The differences between members of the population represent the uncertainties present in raw or interpreted data, or introduced during processing. Defined in this way, an error model can provide estimates of the uncertainty associated with the products of processing in geographical information systems. A new error model is defined in this paper for categorical data. Its application to soil and land cover maps is discussed in two examples: the measurement of area and the measurement of overlay. Specific details of implementation and use are reviewed. The model provides a powerful basis for visualizing error in area class maps, and for measuring the effects of its propagation through processes of geographical information systems. 相似文献
2.
Paul H. Jung Jean-Claude Thill Michele Issel 《International journal of geographical information science》2019,33(6):1155-1175
ABSTRACTWe argue that the use of American Community Survey (ACS) data in spatial autocorrelation statistics without considering error margins is critically problematic. Public health and geographical research has been slow to recognize high data uncertainty of ACS estimates, even though ACS data are widely accepted data sources in neighborhood health studies and health policies. Detecting spatial autocorrelation patterns of health indicators on ACS data can be distorted to the point that scholars may have difficulty in perceiving the true pattern. We examine the statistical properties of spatial autocorrelation statistics of areal incidence rates based on ACS data. In a case study of teen birth rates in Mecklenburg County, North Carolina, in 2010, Global and Local Moran’s I statistics estimated on 5-year ACS estimates (2006–2010) are compared to ground truth rate estimates on actual counts of births certificate records and decennial-census data (2010). Detected spatial autocorrelation patterns are found to be significantly different between the two data sources so that actual spatial structures are misrepresented. We warn of the possibility of misjudgment of the reality and of policy failure and argue for new spatially explicit methods that mitigate the biasedness of statistical estimations imposed by the uncertainty of ACS data. 相似文献
3.
Ran Wei Alan T. Murray 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(7):1231-1249
There exist many facets of error and uncertainty in digital spatial information. As error or uncertainty will not likely ever be completely eliminated, a better understanding of its impacts is necessary. Spatial analytical approaches, in particular, must somehow address data-quality issues. This can range from evaluating impacts of potential data uncertainty in planning processes that make use of methods to devising methods that explicitly account for error/uncertainty. To date, little has been done to structure methods accounting for error. This article develops an integrated approach to address data uncertainty in spatial optimization. We demonstrate that it is possible to characterize uncertainty impacts by constructing and solving a new multi-objective model that explicitly incorporates facets of data uncertainty. Empirical findings indicate that the proposed approaches can be applied to evaluate the impacts of data uncertainty with statistical confidence, which moves beyond popular practices of simulating errors in data. 相似文献
4.
基于CLUE-S模型的黄土台塬区土地利用变化模拟——以陕西省咸阳台塬区为例 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文以2000 年的TM遥感影像解译数据以及水文水资源数据为基础, 综合运用Binary Logistic、CLUE-S模型以及SPSS19.0 统计分析软件, 测评了咸阳黄土台塬区水土资源在数量和空间上的配置, 并在此基础上模拟了咸阳台塬区未来土地利用变化的图谱。分析发现:①从水土数量优化配置的结果可知, 耕地、草地、水域及未利用地面积减少, 而林地和建设用地面积则有增加的趋势;②从面向生态的角度出发, 黄土台塬区的水土优化配置结果反映了台塬区土地生态系统的生态价值和经济效益, 台塬区的生态效益由2000 年的1.5313 亿元增加到2020 年的1.5445 亿元;而台塬区的土地经济收益则由2000 年的68.4901 亿元增加到2020 年的71.9021 亿元;③从水土空间优化配置的结果可以看出, 咸阳台塬区建设用地在过去10 年以及未来10 年变化极为明显, 建设用地主要在原有建设用地周边进行拓展, 其中, 建设用地变化最为明显的区域主要集中在咸阳市的秦都区以及三原县。 相似文献
5.
长江三角洲生态用地破碎度及其城市化关联 总被引：12，自引：3，他引：9
破碎化是当今地表自然景观演化的重要形式。基于县(区) 行政单元,利用GIS 技术和景观生态方法,定量探讨了长江三角洲生态用地破碎分区及其城市化关联,研究结论有：① 建立了生态用地破碎度综合模型,并与城市化规模和空间构型等参数聚类,将全区划为2 个 高破碎区、3 个中等破碎区和2 个低破碎区;② 基于区县尺度和30 m 分辨率影像的生态用 地破碎度是城市化、生态用地特征及其他干扰源的综合表现,与城镇化水平和城镇用地比例 等规模参数相关性不明显,相关系数分别为0.303、0.432,但与城镇用地聚合度呈现明显的负相关,相关系数为-0.807;③ 破碎分区及破碎度的城市化关联为不同生态用地空间战略的选择提供依据,对面向生态保护的城市化空间引导和规划具有指导意义。 相似文献
6.
The apparent features of a rural landscape are the final result of the interaction among several natural and anthropic factors. The analysis of a landscape, as well as the identification of its best management strategies, can be improved when useful information about its modifications along a wide time period is available, so as to assess the effect of the transformations that have taken place there. The implementation within a geographic information system (GIS) of geographical information derived from ancient historical maps, combined with modern digital cartography and recent remote sensing images may provide a very powerful tool for a better-informed analysis and targeted decision-making strategies about the most appropriate rural landscape planning. With the purpose to detect the land use changes in a typical rural landscape in the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy), spatial analysis using free and open-source GIS tools, in which data covering a period of about two centuries, from 1829 to 2017, were implemented. This multi-temporal analysis was carried out to investigate the landscape structure transformations through the assessment of land use change and the implementation of a methodology for the identification of areas in which there has been a natural evolution of the rural landscape. Then, using landscape metrics and spatial analysis tools, some areas in which the landscape has naturally evolved without any anthropic intervention during these 188 years have been identified, and changes occurred on the rural landscape were assessed quantitatively.
相似文献7.
干旱区水土资源时空变化的定量研究 总被引：11，自引：9，他引：11
水资源是制约干旱区土地资源开发利用的主要自然因素，水、土资源利用在时间和空间上平衡与否的矛盾影响着干旱区生态环境与社会发展。用定量化的数学模型表示二者的互相影响，能描述、解释和预测二者关系并能为制定对策提供依据。本文首先分析了干旱区土地利用与水资源的相互影响，然后对水土资源相互影响下时空变化的模拟方法和理论进行了综述。一方面从蒸散的计算、模拟地下水补给、模拟区域尺度上土地利用影响、模拟土地管理措施影响、模拟抽取地下水影响、以系统方法模拟土地利用影响等几方面对土地利用影响下水资源的时空变化模拟进行了综述。同时对水资源影响下土地利用变化的模拟从主要考虑水文作用的水文－植被模型的建立应用及引入人为因素为驱动力的土地利用变化模拟两方面做了综述。文章最后进一步概括了干旱区水土资源时空变化模拟的趋势并就此方面的研究提出了三点展望意见。 相似文献
8.
以典型历史断面下的建设用地为研究对象,以数量估算控制下的空间格局重建为基本思路,在200 m×200 m网格下,估算并重建了近200年5个时间断面下的江苏省建设用地（城镇用地和农村聚落用地）的空间格局。在数量估算方面,历史时期（1820年）的城镇用地主要采用城垣、市镇四栅等作为代用指标;近现代时期（1911年、1936年、1952年）,主要通过人口、社会经济等数据,结合一定假设确定人均用地数量进行推导;各时期的农村聚落用地均以人口数量为基础,根据人均住房面积和社会经济数据修正确定。在空间重建方面,结合遥感数据解译获得的现代（1985年）土地利用数据,借助基础地理数据,在一定假设条件下,通过数量控制、边界控制、适宜性控制,兼顾用地连片性等予以确定。结果表明：① 各时间断面下的江苏省建设用地数量分别为963.46 km2（1820年）、1041.94 km2（1911年）、1672.40 km2（1936年）、1980.34 km2（1952年）和10687.18 km2（1985年）;② 建设用地在空间分布上具有亲水网、路网等特征,并随居民点极化与扩散效应而不断扩张;③ 通过变化过程与演化趋势检验、建设用地与生产协调性分析、居民点空间数量与格局分析等方法,间接证明了重建结果的合理性。 相似文献
9.
Gerard B. M. Heuvelink 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(8):921-935
Abstract Recent developments in theory and computer software mean that it is now relatively straightforward to evaluate how attribute errors are propagated through quantitative spatial models in GIS. A major problem, however, is to estimate the errors associated with the inputs to these spatial models. A first approach is to use the root mean square error, but in many cases it is better to estimate the errors from the degree of spatial variation and the method used for mapping. It is essential to decide at an early stage whether one should use a discrete model of spatial variation (DMSV—homogeneous areas, abrupt boundaries), a continuous model (CMSV—a continuously varying regionalized variable field) or a mixture of both (MMSV—mixed model of spatial variation). Maps of predictions and prediction error standard deviations are different in all three cases, and it is crucial for error estimation which model of spatial variation is used. The choice of model has been insufficiently studied in depth, but can be based on prior information about the kinds of spatial processes and patterns that are present, or on validation results. When undetermined it is sensible to adopt the MMSV in order to bypass the rigidity of the DMSV and CMSV. These issues are explored and illustrated using data on the mean highest groundwater level in a polder area in the Netherlands. 相似文献
10.
L. ALAN EYRE 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(4):363-371
Abstract JAMGIS, the first comprehensive multi-data geographical information system (GIS) in Jamaica, has been developed by the Ministry of Agriculture in cooperation with USAID and two universities in the U.S.A. The system and its database are described and a number of problems encountered in its development and practical application are discussed. The most valuable products to date have been the delineation of areas of crop suitability, two series of twelve land use/cover maps at 1:50000 scale and statistical analyses of soil and land resources. 相似文献
11.
Arika Ligmann-Zielinska 《International journal of geographical information science》2013,27(9):1764-1781
The complexity of land use and land cover (LULC) change models is often attributed to spatial heterogeneity of the phenomena they try to emulate. The associated outcome uncertainty stems from a combination of model unknowns. Contrarily to the widely shared consensus on the importance of evaluating outcome uncertainty, little attention has been given to the role a well-structured spatially explicit sensitivity analysis (SSA) of LULC models can play in corroborating model results. In this article, I propose a methodology for SSA that employs sensitivity indices (SIs), which decompose outcome uncertainty and allocate it to various combinations of inputs. Using an agent-based model of residential development, I explore the utility of the methodology in explaining the uncertainty of simulated land use change. Model sensitivity is analyzed using two approaches. The first is spatially inexplicit in that it applies SI to scalar outputs, where outcome land use maps are lumped into spatial statistics. The second approach, which is spatially explicit, employs the maps directly in SI calculations. It generates sensitivity maps that allow for identifying regions of factor influence, that is, areas where a particular input contributes most to the clusters of residential development uncertainty. I demonstrate that these two approaches are complementary, but at the same time can lead to different decisions regarding input factor prioritization. 相似文献
12.
东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响评价 总被引：28，自引：0，他引：28
分析研究当前区域性耕地资源数量与质量的变化格局和态势, 研究其耕地资源变化对粮食生产能力的影响, 具有重要的理论和现实意义。以东北地区为例, 利用“3S”技术, 着 重应用GIS 空间分析优势, 首先分层次开展耕地自然质量评价、耕地利用质量评价与耕地综 合质量评价, 分析耕地自然质量、耕地利用质量与粮食单产的关系, 研究区域耕地数量变化 引起的耕地综合质量空间分布变化; 然后从耕地数量、耕地质量、作物种植制度等方面, 探 讨东北地区耕地变化对粮食生产能力的影响。为本地区耕地资源可持续利用与管理, 制定科学合理的粮食生产发展规划提供借鉴, 为其他地区开展类似研究提供参考。 相似文献
13.
以徐州市贾汪矿区1986、1996、2006和2016年4期遥感影像为数据源,基于CLUE-S模型,在传统Logistics回归模型的基础上引入空间自相关因子形成Autologistic回归模型,选取政策、自然环境、社会经济和空间约束等因素,对贾汪矿区2016年土地利用空间分布格局进行模拟以检验精度。在此基础上对研究区2026年趋势发展、经济发展和生态保护3种情景下的土地利用空间分布格局进行了模拟。结果表明：1）Autologistic回归模型在土地利用情景模拟过程中能够更好地反映真实的土地利用格局;2）研究区2016－2026年不同情景下,建设用地在3种情景下均呈现明显的增加趋势,未利用地面积持续减少,其中经济发展情景下建设用的增幅最大,生态保护用地情景下建设用地增幅最小,在生态保护情景下,林地、耕地等生态用地受到保护,建设用地的扩展速度被抑制。
关键词：土地利用变化;CLUE-S模型;Autologistic回归模型;情景模拟;贾汪矿区 相似文献
14.
充分利用大数据开展城市用地功能识别,有助于把握城市空间结构,推动城市内部空间合理布局。POI数据是大数据时代一种较易获得且极具代表性的空间点状数据,能够有效地确定城市用地的实际功能。以济南市内五区的185126条POI数据为基础,对所得数据进行去重、纠偏、重分类,构建城市用地功能分类体系,运用频数密度、类型比例及核密度估计,识别济南市内五区城市用地功能并利用误差矩阵对识别结果进行检验。结果表明：①混合功能用地与单一功能用地呈现圈层化地域分布特征,“核心-外围”分异明显;②由内向外单一功能用地集聚趋势减弱,混合功能用地多样性降低,不同用地表现出不同的空间分布模式;③通过误差矩阵及与用地规划图中规划用地及电子地图的实际用地对比,识别总体精度为75.67%,识别结果较为准确。 相似文献
15.
南方山地丘陵区资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法探讨 ——以福建省为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以福建省为例,综合运用文献研究法、地理比较法、GIS空间分析和数理模型等研究方法,按照评价技术与区域特色相匹配、开发阈值与主体功能相协调、划分结果与自然分异相统一的设计思路,构建适宜山地丘陵区的资源环境承载能力监测预警改进方案。提出：① 评价模型中引入山地丘陵区的特征要素,着重探讨土地资源评价中坡度、生态保护红线、行洪通道等影响因子分值的调整,水资源评价方法的替换,重点生态功能区集成方法的调整等。② 在地形复杂多变、区域差异显著的情况下,宜尽可能采用具有全域覆盖特征的数据替代孤立点位数据。集中体现在农产品主产区采用的耕地质量等别评定数据,生态评价采用的以地灾点为中心的地质灾害综合影响指数中。 相似文献
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区域建设用地开发强度是揭示土地利用效率、社会经济发展水平与国土空间开发状态的 重要指标,对其变化进行监测与管治是优化国土空间开发格局,实现区域可持续发展的重要手 段。构建建设用地开发强度量化模型,以陕西省为例,计算 2000—2015 年县域建设用地开发强度 指数,利用空间自相关分析方法揭示其空间格局和演化特征,并采用最小二乘法（OLS）和地理加权 回归（GWR）模型识别建设用地开发强度格局演化的影响因素。结果表明：（1）2000—2015 年陕西 省建设用地开发强度总体呈现增长态势,内部空间分异显著,高强度区集中在榆林、延安、西安、安 康等地,低强度区集中在咸阳、宝鸡、铜川、商洛、渭南、汉中等地。（2）陕西省建设用地开发强度呈 现出明显的空间集聚状态,热点区稳定分布在西安市辖区及周边区县,冷点区分布在延安南部、咸 阳、铜川、渭南和汉中等部分区域;县域建设用地开发强度逐步提升的同时,区域开发不平衡现象 日益突显。（3）固定资产投资、居民消费水平、财政投入力度、耕地资源和地形条件是影响陕西省建 设用地开发强度空间分异的主要因素,但在不同县域其影响程度大小具有显著差异,且个别因素 的影响具有不稳定性。 相似文献
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黑河流域典型区土地利用格局变化及影响比较 总被引：28，自引：4，他引：24
在黑河流域选择两个典型区域进行土地利用变化的空间差异与影响的对比研究,利用20世纪60年代以来的三期遥感数据,通过定量表征指标体系,对比分析了两个区域不同空间土地利用格局变化和土地利用类型变化的分异特征,定量评价了土地利用变化对不同区域绿洲系统的稳定性和水资源空间分配的影响。结果表明：过去35年来两个对比区域不同的土地利用格局变化,形成了显著的绿洲沿河流的溯源迁移和以基于下游老绿洲的渐进性绿洲外围拓展两种不同模式,前者导致流域水资源过度集中消耗于流域上游和源区,中下游水资源可利用量急剧减少,在35年间下游荒漠化土地增加了85.1%,灌溉绿洲萎缩了25.5%;后者则不同,水资源利用量的空间配置在区域下游具有小幅度集中,区域绿洲系统整体的稳定性较高。从流域整体的水土相互关系出发,合理规划干旱内陆流域土地利用模式和空间土地资源配置,对于促进流域整体的可持续发展具有重要意义。 相似文献
18.
Ally Namangaya Robert Kiunsi 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(2):151-159
The connection between city development patterns, housing and service provision is critical as it affects allocation of scarce resources in the cities of Sub Sahara Africa, where the adopted planning models and concepts seem to have minimal success. Through spatial analysis and quantitative research this study explores sequencing of servicing and housing development as it impacts city spatial growth patterns in a context of resource deficiency in Dar es Salaam City. The study finds that despite households’ land ownership being crucial in city spatial expansion process towards residential house ownership, their actual construction and occupation will depend on the accessibility of services. Moreover, it was established that as more services become available, proportionally, number of people settling in new areas increases. Since this process happens equally in planned and unplanned settlements, this study indicates that it is the availability of services and not land allocation that triggers actual development of residential housing. Thus, service provision determines the pace of change in short and medium city spatial patterns. This implies that in the context of public resource deficiency and self-help housing, strategic investments in basic services such as electricity connection, public transport and portable water is the way to influence actual city development pattern rather than providing plots. 相似文献
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20.
区域尺度土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）时空特征及驱动力是研究大尺度变化乃至全球变化演变过程的基础,而干旱区LUCC对区域水文、生态影响尤为显著,是全球变化研究的重点之一。以新疆孔雀河流域上游作为研究区,基于1977-2015年6期Landsat数据,采用多规则人机交互目视解译的方法完成LUCC制图,并利用LUCC模型从数量变化、空间变化、土地利用集约程度变化等多方面分析了近40年来该区域LUCC特点及演变机制。结果表明：（1）研究区仅有耕地和建设用地面积增加,且增幅均在200%以上,其他土地类型面积则均有不同程度的减少;（2）耕地变化呈现出空间集聚现象,而建设用地的扩张则呈现空间连续性;（3）2000年前后自然植被经历小幅退化—恢复过程;（4）受西部大开发、塔里木河生态综合治理工程等多种因素影响,2000-2005年间,空间变化的综合动态度最高（2.76%）;（5）自然因素影响较小,人口增长和政策因素是主要驱动因子。 相似文献