共查询到18条相似文献，搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
广东木棉、苦楝主要物候期温度指标及其农业气候意义 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
根据广东省气象观测资料和农业气象观测站的物候观测资料,计算出木棉和苦楝展叶期和开花期温度指标,并分析其对应的农业气候意义,同时分析了当前气候变暖背景下物候期对温度的响应。结果表明:木棉开花始期的指示温度为11℃,苦楝展叶始期的指示温度为10℃;由于气候增暖,上世纪80年代以后,稳定通过物候期指示温度的日期明显有提早的趋势,春季物候期也明显提前。 相似文献
2.
石家庄春季自然物候对气候变化的响应研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
分析了石家庄1965-2007年杨絮始落、鸭梨始花和刺槐盛花3种植物物候期的变化特征以及对气候的响应规律。结果表明：（1）石家庄春季物候期普遍提早,早春的物候期提前天数多,晚春物候期提早天数少。石家庄春季物候现象普遍存在着2～3年的周期。（2）通过计算石家庄春季物候与气温、日照和降水量的相关关系,发现与气温的关系最好,与降水日数表现出弱的相关性,与日照关系不明显,说明气温是影响石家座春季物候的主导气象因子,GDD是衡量植物热量供应的较好指标,而日照对物候期影响表现出不同物种和不同物候现象间的差异性特征。（3）石家庄春季物候期与ENSO事件也表现出一定的关系,在暖事件年以物候期偏早为主,在冷事件年无明显早晚趋势。 相似文献
3.
桂林市气候变暖特征及其对柑桔物候期的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用桂林市1984-2014年气候资料和同期柑桔物候资料,运用线性倾向估计、SPSS相关系数等方法研究了桂林市气候变暖的特征及其对柑桔物候期的影响。结果表明:31年中桂林市气候变暖趋势明显,其主要特点是年平均气温上升幅度约为0.4℃,20世纪90年代后期和21世纪初升温显著,在升温过程中以春季升温为主,冬季次之,夏季、秋季略升温,气候变暖春季气温升高贡献最大。气候变暖引起柑桔物候期的变化明显,春季物候期提前,秋季物候期推迟,生长季呈延长的趋势;气温是影响柑桔物候期最为显著的气象因子;2月平均最高气温升高1℃,柑桔芽开放期提前约3.4天,3月平均最高气温升高1℃,开花期提前约4.9天,年极端最高气温升高1℃,可采成熟期推迟6.8天。 相似文献
4.
中国木本植物物候对气温变化的响应 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文利用全国21个站的木本植物物候资料和全国599个站的逐日气温资料,分析了1963~1988年中国木本植物物候对气温变化的响应,研究表明:26年来,植物春季物候期与春季气温在全国总体呈负相关,气温越高,物候期越提前;植物秋季物候期与秋季气温在全国呈正相关,但相关性没有春季物候期显著;我国木本植物物候生长季长度有明显的南-北向梯度,早春气温对植物物候生长季的影响比秋末气温对其影响更大。 相似文献
5.
利用商洛市7个国家气象站1961—2020年近60 a的日平均气温、月平均气温、月最高气温、月最低气温等资料,选取10种极端气温指数,采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、累积距平法,对商洛平均气温、最高气温、最低气温的年际、年代际、季节变化特征,异常性及极端性进行了分析。结果表明：近60 a来商洛年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温的年际变化呈上升趋势,其中平均最高气温的线性倾向率最大;除平均最低气温冬季线性倾向率呈下降趋势外,平均最低气温的春季、夏季、秋季和年平均气温、平均最高气温四季变化均呈上升趋势,年平均气温、平均最高气温春季线性倾向率最大,平均最低气温夏季线性倾向率最大;季节气温的年代际变化特点为20世纪60—90年代为相对偏冷期,21世纪为相对偏暖期;通过M-K突变检验和累积距平法得出商洛年平均气温发生了由低温到高温的突变,突变时间在1987—1988年;分析平均气温异常性得出偏暖年份多出现在21世纪之后,偏冷年份多出现在20世纪90年代以前,尤其集中在60年代中期左右,秋季偏暖年份最多,春季偏冷年份最多;近60 a极端最高气温有显著的年际变化,暖夜日数呈增多趋势,冷夜日数呈减少趋势,暖昼日数较冷昼日数增多明显,昼指数变化较夜指数变化明显,热指数呈上升趋势,冷指数呈下降趋势,进一步说明商洛呈增温趋势。 相似文献
6.
气候变暖对呼和浩特地区自然物候的影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
分析了1982—2007年气候变暖对内蒙古呼和浩特、武川自然物候的影响,结果表明:①春季,土壤表层解冻呼和浩特晚于武川,其余物候呼和浩特早于武川;秋季物候均为武川早于呼和浩特。且两地物候间距均为"豆雁始(绝)见>气象水文物候期>植物始花(落叶)";两地植物物候间呈显著的正相关,豆雁始(绝)见呈显著负相关,气象水文物候期间相关不显著;②两地年、春、秋季平均气温呈增加趋势,植物物候春季提前,秋季延迟趋势显著,与气温有很强的响应关系;豆雁在呼和浩特始见提前,绝见延迟,武川与此相反,豆雁与气温有一定的响应关系;气象水文物候期也具有春季提前,秋季延迟的趋势,与气温相关不显著。 相似文献
7.
粤中地区木本植物春季物候特征及其对气候变化的响应 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
根据1982-2012年高要气象站自然物候和气象观测资料,利用线性回归、相关分析等方法研究了近30 a来粤中地区木本植物木棉、苦楝春季物候特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明,粤中地区木本植物春季物候期总体呈提前趋势,苦楝展叶始期、开花盛期平均每年提前0.4 d和0.8 d,木棉开花盛期、展叶始期平均每年提前0.8 d和1.1 d。冬季平均气温、春季平均气温、年平均气温以及前期≥10℃积温均与苦楝、木棉展叶始期、开花盛期呈显著负相关,其中,2-3月平均气温对苦楝、木棉春季物候期的影响最为显著,高要市2-3月平均气温上升1℃,苦楝展叶始期、开花盛期分别提前5.4 d和6.9 d,木棉开花盛期、展叶始期分别提前6.6 d和8.0 d。物候期特征可作为评估区域气候变化的一个衡量指标,为当地生态系统保护、新物种引进、农时预报和农林业发展等提供参考。 相似文献
8.
桂北动物物候气候变暖响应 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
对桂北地区1989~2007年青蛙、蟋蟀始鸣和终鸣以及气温等气候要素1975~2007年同步观测资料的对比分析结果表明,近10年来桂北地区青蛙和蟋蟀始鸣日期呈提前趋势,终鸣日期稳定,始终鸣间隔期及生长繁殖季显著延长;桂林雁山近34年来年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,特别是1997年以来增温显著,在增温过程中以春季增温为主,冬季和秋季增温次之,夏季呈弱降温趋势;2~4月平均气温和3月平均最高气温是影响青蛙和蟋蟀始鸣期和始终鸣间隔期的主要气候生态因子;动物物候变化是动物对气候变暖的响应。 相似文献
9.
江苏省冬季气温、降水年代际异常及相关分析 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和江苏省冬季气温、降水资料,运用带通滤波、经验正交分解(EOF)和相关分析等方法,分析了江苏省冬季气候年代际异常及同期气温与降水的相关特征.结果表明:江苏省冬季气候的年代际变化具有很好的空间一致性,表现为全省整体偏暖(偏冷)和偏涝(偏旱)的趋势;冬季气候存在明显的年代际突变,时间在1980s中期前后,平均气温从偏冷时期向偏暖时期转换,降水由偏少期向偏多时期转换.通过冬季同期降水和气温的相关分析发现,降水和气温具有一定的正相关性,而他们的年代际分量的正相关性更为显著,这与冬季大气环流场和海温场的年代际变化有密切的关系. 相似文献
10.
桂平市近50年气温变化特征分析 总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3
利用桂平市1954～2007年气温资料,通过滑动平均、线性回归、距平列表等统计方法,分析了桂平市50年来的气候变化特征。结果表明：桂平市四季气温呈明显上升趋势,增温趋势较全区均值大,80年代中期以后呈加速增温,气候异常偏暖的年份都出现在90年代以后的偏暖期;四季的气温均上升,其中冬季增温贡献最大,春季次之,90年代后出现了明显的暖冬天气。 相似文献
11.
Jose Oteros Herminia García-Mozo Roser Botey Antonio Mestre Carmen Galán 《Climatic change》2015,132(4):545-558
Over recent years, the Iberian Peninsula has witnessed an increase both in temperature and in rainfall intensity, especially in the Mediterranean climate area. Plant phenology is modulated by climate, and closely governed by water availability and air temperature. Over the period 1986–2012, the effects of climate change on phenology were analyzed in five crops at 26 sites growing in Spain (southern Europe): oats, wheat, rye, barley and maize. The phenophases studied were: sowing date, emergence, flag leaf sheath swollen, flowering, seed ripening and harvest. Trends in phenological response over time were detected using linear regression. Trends in air temperature and rainfall over the period prior to each phenophase were also charted. Correlations between phenological features, biogeographical area and weather trends were examined using a Generalized Lineal Mixed Model approach. A generalized advance in most winter-cereal phenophases was observed, mainly during the spring. Trend patterns differed between species and phenophases. The most noticeable advance in spring phenology was recorded for wheat and oats, the “Flag leaf sheath swollen” and “Flowering date” phenophases being brought forward by around 3 days/year and 1 day/year, respectively. Temperature changes during the period prior to phenophase onset were identified as the cause of these phenological trends. Climate changes are clearly prompting variations in cereal crop phenology; their consequences could be even more marked if climate change persists into the next century. Changes in phenology could in turn impact crop yield; fortunately, human intervention in crop systems is likely to minimize the negative impact. 相似文献
12.
Spring Phenophases in Recent Decades Over Eastern China and Its Possible Link to Climate Changes 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
In light of the observed climate changes in recent decades over eastern China, we studied the changes in spring phenophases of woody plants observed at 16-stations during 1963–1996, and explored the possible link between the spring phenophases changes and climate changes before the phenophase onset. It is found that, in the region north of 33∘N (including Northeast, North China and the lower reaches of the Huaihe River), the phenophase advanced 1.1–4.3 days per decade for early spring and 1.4–5.4 days per decade for late spring, but in the eastern part of the southwest China it was dealyed by 2.9–6.9 days per decade in early spring and 2.4–6.2 days per decade in late spring. One outstanding feature is identified in Guangzhou in south China, where significant advance of 7.5 days per decade in early spring and delay of 4.6 days per decade in late spring were detected. Statistically siginficant correlation was found between the changes of spring phenophase and the temperatures of one or several months before the phenophase onset. The relationship between the trend of phenophase change and temperature change was highly non-linear (more sensitivity to cooling than to warming) and reached an asymptote 0.5∘C per decade, which may have implication in the responses of the ecosystem in a future global warming scenario. In addition, we also examined the link between the spring phenophase, and length and mean temperature of the growing season, and the analyses suggested that they were highly correlated as well. 相似文献
13.
B. Primault 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1992,45(2):139-143
Summary The beginning of tree growth in the spring, denoted by the arrival of a phenophase, varies from year to year. The ambient air temperature is probably the most important factor for vegetation growth in spring. Starting from an initial concept of the beginning of the vegetation period as being seven days with a mean temperature of 5.0 °C or greater, we modify the threshold (going down to 2 °C) and the length of the reaction period (five to nine days). To estimate the effect of these changes on the results at several geographical sites, we calculated the modifications obtained for three weather stations in Switzerland: Zurich (590 m), Einsiedeln (914 m) and Davos (1600 m). To obtain a clear picture of the influence of these changes, we used a frequency of data obtained during the period 1931–1970 (maximum, 90%, 75%, 50%, 25%, 10%, minimum). In conclusion, the lower the threshold of temperature, the earlier the computed start date for growth. Similarly, the shorter the lapse time, the earlier the date produced for the phenophase. Both modifications have no significant influence on the picture of the frequential distribution of the results.With 5 Figures 相似文献
14.
利用1963~1988年中国木本草本植物物候观测资料,运用趋势分析和相关分析方法,研究了26年中国20个物候站点植物始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期物候变化特征及其对降水变化的响应。结果表明:1963~1988年我国植物始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期均以推迟趋势为主;春季始展叶期、始花期,东北、华北以提前趋势为主,其他各区以推迟趋势为主;秋季始落叶(黄枯)期华北以提前趋势为主,其他各区以推迟趋势为主;1980年前后的物候期变化与1963~1988年的变化相同;春季物候期平均值差异多在-3~6天,秋季物候期平均值差异多在-10~10天;我国植物的始展叶期、始花期、始落叶(黄枯)期对于之前月份的累积降水量有不同程度的响应,物候期对该物候期前1月至前3月的累积降水量响应最为明显;我国春季物候期与降水量以正相关为主,秋季物候期与降水量则以负相关为主。 相似文献
15.
本文基于内蒙古农牧业气象观测站1994—2015年旱柳、榆树和小叶杨三种木本植物物候观测资料及同期气候数据,采用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数等方法,探讨了气候变化对阴山北麓木本植物物候的影响。结果表明：近22 a,阴山北麓旱柳、榆树和小叶杨的花芽开放期和落叶末期均表现为提前趋势,且落叶末期提前幅度较大,平均每10 a分别提前2.9 d、3.6 d、4.6 d。生长季缩短,平均生长季长度为182 d。气温是影响旱柳、榆树、小叶杨春季花芽开放期的关键气象因子,春季气温每升高1℃,花芽开放期提前4.1 d;而落叶末期对降水量较为敏感,水分条件是阴山北麓木本植物落叶末期的主要限制因子。 相似文献
16.
为探讨ECMWF业务预报模式(以下简称ECMWF)的地面气温预报不一致性问题,本文利用2015年12月1日—2016年11月30日业务预报中常用的地面气温预报数据,研究ECMWF地面气温预报产品在不同季节里的不一致性指数分布及变化特征。结果表明:各个季节不一致性指数有不同的特点,冬季不一致性指数最大,大值区主要分布在除华南和青藏高原外的大部分区域;而夏季不一致性指数最小,在青藏高原地区不一致性指数相对较大;春、秋两季不一致性指数大小均处于冬、夏季之间。此外,研究还发现冬季地面气温预报不一致性指数单日变化较大,而夏季较小。夏季不同起报时间的地面气温预报比较稳定。 相似文献
17.
Using the hindcasts provided by the Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts(ENSEMBLES) project for the period of 1980–2005, the forecast capability of spring climate in China is assessed mainly from the aspects of precipitation, 2-m air temperature, and atmospheric circulations. The ENSEMBELS can reproduce the climatology and dominant empirical orthogonal function(EOF) modes of precipitation and 2-m air temperature, with some differences arising from different initialization months. The multi-model ensemble(MME) forecast of interannual variability is of good performance in some regions such as eastern China with February initialization.The spatial patterns of the MME interannual and inter-member spreads for precipitation and 2-m air temperature are consistent with those of the observed interannual spread, indicating that internal dynamic processes have major impacts on the interannual anomaly of spring climate in China. We have identified two coupled modes between intermember anomalies of the 850-hPa vorticity in spring and sea surface temperature(SST) both in spring and at a lead of 2 months, of which the first mode shows a significant impact on the spring climate in China, with an anomalous anticyclone located over Northwest Pacific and positive precipitation and southwesterly anomalies in eastern China.Our results also suggest that the SST at a lead of two months may be a predictor for the spring climate in eastern China. A better representation of the ocean–atmosphere interaction over the tropical Pacific, Northwest Pacific, and Indian Ocean can improve the forecast skill of the spring climate in eastern China. 相似文献
18.
Simulation of Effects of Grassland Degradation on Regional Climate over Sanjiangyuan Region in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 Regional climate model （RegCM3） was applied to explore the possible effects of land use changes （e.g., grassland degradation in this study） on local and regional climate over the Sanjiangyuan region in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Two multiyear （1991-1999） numerical simulation experiments were conducted： one was a control experiment with current land use and the other was a desertification experiment with potential grassland degradation. Preliminary analysis indicated that RegCM3 is appropriate for simulating land- climate interactions, as the patterns of the simulated surface air temperature, the summer precipitation, and the geopotential height fields are consistent with the observed values. The desertification over the Sanjiangyuan region will cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics. The area with obvious change in surface air temperature inducing by grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region is located in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A winter surface air temperature drop and the other seasons＇ surface air temperature increase will be observed over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on two numerical simulation experiments. Surface air temperature changes in spring are the largest （0.46℃）, and in winter are the smallest （smaller than 0.03℃）, indicating an increasing mean annual surface air temperature over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Surface air temperature changes will be smaller and more complex over the surrounding region, with minor winter changes for the regions just outside the plateau and notable summer changes over the north of the Yangtze River. The reinforced summer heat source in the plateau will lead to an intensification of heat low, causing the West Pacific subtropical high to retreat eastward. This will be followed by a decrease of precipitation in summer. The plateau＇s climate tends to become warm and dry due to the grassland degradation over the Sanjiangyuan region. 相似文献