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1.
The paper is based on the ionospheric variations in terms of vertical total electron content (VTEC) for the low solar activity period from May 2007 to April 2009 based on the analysis of dual frequency signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites recorded at ground stations Varanasi (Geographic latitude 25°16′ N, Longitude 82°59′ E), situated near the equatorial ionization anomaly crest and other two International GNSS Service (IGS) stations Hyderabad (Geographic latitude 17°20′ N, longitude 78°30′ E) and Bangalore (Geographic latitude 12°58′ N, longitude 77°33′ E) in India. We describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of total electron content (TEC), and the effects of a space weather related event i.e. a geomagnetic storm on TEC. The mean diurnal variation during different seasons is brought out. It is found that TEC at all the three stations is maximum during equinoctial months (March, April, September and October), and minimum during the winter months (November, December, January and February), while obtaining intermediate values during summer months (May, June, July and August). TEC shows a semi-annual variation. TEC variation during geomagnetic quiet as well as disturbed days of each month and hence for each season from May 2007 to April 2008 at Varanasi is examined and is found to be more during disturbed period compared to that in the quiet period. Monthly, seasonal and annual variability of GPS-TEC has been compared with those derived from International Reference Ionosphere (IRI)-2007 with three different options of topside electron density, NeQuick, IRI01-corr and IRI 2001. A good agreement is found between the GPS-TEC and IRI model TEC at all the three stations.  相似文献   

2.
The comparison of the IRI model with TEC estimated using the continuous GPS observations of European part of IGS network is considered. The variability of a measured TEC was analyzed for the low solar activity in the period 1996–1997. We used IRI 90 version with upped height limit 2000 km and IRI 95 up to 1000 km. It is shown that the difference between model and measured TEC depends on latitude and season.Generally, IRI 95 underestimate and IRI 90 overestimate the TEC relative to GPS measurements. The relative difference may reach over 50%.  相似文献   

3.
In recent years with the advancement in satellite based navigational applications, study of Total Electron Content (TEC) has gained significant importance. It is well known that due to dynamical behaviour of equatorial and low latitude ionosphere, the levels of ionization is relatively high herein. The sustained decrease in solar extreme ultraviolet radiations during the current minimum is greater than any in recent history. This gives us the opportunity to study the observations of global positioning system total electron content (GPS-TEC) dual frequency signals from the GPS satellites continuously recorded at Trivandrum (an equatorial station) and Delhi (a low latitude station) during the extremely low solar activity period from January 2007 to June 2009. This study illustrates the diurnal, seasonal and annual variations of TEC during the extended solar minimum period. This study also investigates the behaviour of daytime ionosphere around spring and autumn equinoxes at low solar activity period. The results clearly reveal the presence of equinoctial asymmetry which is more pronounced at equatorial station Trivandrum. The diurnal variation of TEC shows a short-lived day minimum which occurs between 0500 to 0600 LT at both the stations. Delhi TEC values show its steep increase and reach at its peak value between 1200 and 1400 LT, while at the equator the peak is broad and occurs around 1600 LT. Further, the daily maximum TEC ranges from about 5 to 40 TEC units at Trivandrum and about 10 to 40 TEC units at Delhi, which correspond to range delay variations of about 1 to 8 m at the GPS L1 frequency of 1.575 GHz. The Maximum values of TEC were observed during spring equinox rather than autumn equinox, showing presence of semi annual variation at both the locations. The minimum values of TEC were observed during the summer solstice at Trivandrum indicating the presence of winter anomaly at equatorial region while Delhi TEC values were minimum during winter solstice showing absence of winter anomaly. Also the TEC values at both the locations have been decreasing since 2007 onwards exhibit good positive correlation with solar activity.  相似文献   

4.
Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) model is implemented to recognize the Total Electron Content (TEC) time series of daily, temporal as well as seasonal characteristics throughout the 24th solar cycle period of the year 2015 in the study. The Vertical (vTEC) analysis has been carried out with Global Positioning System (GPS) data sets collected from five stations from India namely GNT, Guntur (16.44° N, 80.62° E), and IISC, Bangalore (12.97° N, 77.59° E), LCK2, Lucknow (26.76° N, 80.88° E), one station from Thailand namely AITB, Bangkok (14.07° N, 100.61° E), and one station from South Andaman Island namely PBR, Port Blair (11.43° N, 92.43° E), located in low latitude region. The first five singular value modes constitute about 98% of the total variance, which are linearly transformed from the observed TEC data sets. So it is viable to decrease the number of modeling parameters. The Fourier Series Analysis (FSA) is carried out to characterize the solar-cycle, annual and semi-annual dependences through modulating the first three singular values by the solar (F10.7) and geomagnetic (Ap) indices. The positive correlation coefficient (0.75) of daily averaged GPS–TEC with daily averaged F10.7 strongly supports the temporal variations of the ionospheric features depends on the solar activity. Further, the significance and reliability of the SVD model is evaluated by comparing it with GPS–TEC data and the standard global model (Standard Plasma-Spherical Ionospheric Model, SPIM and International Reference Ionosphere, IRI 2016).  相似文献   

5.
《Planetary and Space Science》1987,35(8):1039-1052
An empirical density formula is explored as a practical model for atmospheric variations and satellite drag analyses. Expanding neutral air density as a series of spherical harmonics and normalizing to a fixed height, an analytical expression for the rate of change of the mean motion is developed for an oblate atmosphere with density scale height varying linearly with altitude. A subset of the coefficients in the density expansion is determined by least-squares adjustment to the observed orbital decay rate of Intercosmos 13 rocket (1975-22B) for the period May 1975–December 1979. Comparisons against four thermospheric models are undertaken for the solar activity effect and the diurnal and semi-annual variations. Given the even spread of data and the increase in solar activity from low to moderate, the air density variation with solar activity is particularly well determined. The results support the “J77” model revealing a greater increase in density with the daily solar index than either the “MSIS” or “DTM” thermospheric models near the solar minimum. Analyses of the diurnal and semi-annual variations are less exact.  相似文献   

6.
电离层延迟改正模型综述   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  
电离层延迟改正模型通常可以分为广播星历用的预报模型、广域差分用的实时模型、后处理模型3类,不同应用要求需要选择不同的模型。主要比较分析了几种常用的电离层延迟改正模型: 用于广域差分中生成格网模型的三角级数模型、多项式模型、低阶球谐函数模型等都可以获得很好的改正效果,且这3种模型基本上是等价的;电离层延迟谐函数展开模型可以用来分析电离层长时间系列的变化特征;国际电离层参考模型IRI的改正精度一般可以达到60％的效果;而GPS 星历采用的Klobuchar模型的参数设置存在一些不足,对此提出了一些改进措施。  相似文献   

7.
F10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...  相似文献   

8.
The probability of the interstellar wind atoms (H and He) to survive ionization by solar wind electrons is presented. For the first time a dual temperature electron distribution is used to model the effects of “core” (10 eV) and “halo” (60 eV) solar electrons on the probabilities. Survival probability distributions as a function of helicocentric distance were calculated for variations in the electron temperature, solar radiation force, and the interstellar wind flow velocity. These probabilities are important in determining the radial density distributions of the interstellar atoms. It has been found that the interstellar wind has a distinctively higher probability of surviving “halo” rather than “core” electron ionization only at heliocentric distances, ρ, smaller than about 0.5 a.u. For distances larger than 0.5 a.u., the probabilities of surviving “halo” electrons are close to the probabilities of surviving “core” electrons. Also, the probabilities for both “core” and “halo” electrons are relatively insensitive to changes in u∞ (interstellar wind velocity at infinity), μ (the solar ratio of radiation to gravitational force) and α (a model parameter for solar electron temperature) for ρ > 0.5. For distances smaller than that, the sensitivity increases significantly.  相似文献   

9.
We present the “Drag-Based Model” (DBM) of heliospheric propagation of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). The DBM is based on the hypothesis that the driving Lorentz force, which launches a CME, ceases in the upper corona and that beyond a certain distance the dynamics becomes governed solely by the interaction of the ICME and the ambient solar wind. In particular, we consider the option where the drag acceleration has a quadratic dependence on the ICME relative speed, which is expected in a collisionless environment, where the drag is caused primarily by emission of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. In this paper we present the simplest version of DBM, where the equation of motion can be solved analytically, providing explicit solutions for the Sun–Earth ICME transit time and impact speed. This offers easy handling and straightforward application to real-time space-weather forecasting. Beside presenting the model itself, we perform an analysis of DBM performances, applying a statistical and case-study approach, which provides insight into the advantages and drawbacks of DBM. Finally, we present a public, DBM-based, online forecast tool.  相似文献   

10.
利用时间序列模型预报电离层TEC   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  
以IGS(international GPS service)发布的电离层TEC(total electron content)资料为样本,用时间序列模型对全球的电离层总电子含量进行了预报.在时间序列预报模型中,不同的定阶方法导致不同的预报结果;实践证明本文使用的BIC定阶准则较好地实现了电离层总电子含量的预报.结果表明:对10 d左右的预报时间段,时间序列模型的TEC计算结果相对精度高,预报相对精度优于60%的网格点数在总网格点数中所占百分比可达90%以上.  相似文献   

11.
O. Floyd  P. Lamy  A. Llebaria 《Solar physics》2014,289(4):1313-1339
We report on the statistical analysis of the interaction between coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and streamers based on 15 years (from 1996 to 2010 inclusive) of observation of the solar corona with the LASCO-C2 coronagraph. We used synoptic maps and improved the method of analysis of past investigations by implementing an automatic detection of both CMEs and streamers. We identified five categories of interaction based on photometric and geometric variations between the pre- and post-CME streamers: “brightening”, “dimming”, “emergence”, “disappearance”, and “deviation”. A sixth category, “no change”, included all cases where none of the above variations is observed. A “global set” of 21?242 CMEs was considered as well as a subset of the 10 % brightest CMEs (denoted “top-ten”) and three typical periods of solar activity: minimum, intermediate, and maximum. We found that about half of the global population of CMEs are not associated with streamers, whereas 93 % of the 10 % brightest CMEs are associated. When there is a CME-streamer association, approximately 95 % of the streamers experience a change, either geometric or radiometric. The “no change” category therefore amounts to approximately 5 %, but this percentage varies from 1?–?2 % during minimum to 7?–?8 % during intermediate periods of activity; values of 3?–?5 % are recorded during maximum. Emergences and disappearances of streamers are not dominant processes; they constitute 16?–?17 % of the global set and 23 % (emergence) and 28 % (disappearance) of the “top-ten” set. Streamer deviations are observed for 57 % and 70 % of, respectively, the global set and “top-ten” CMEs. The cases of dimming and brightening are roughly equally present and each case constitutes approximately 30?–?35 % of either set, global or “top-ten”.  相似文献   

12.
NASA's Genesis Mission returned solar wind (SW) to the Earth for analysis to derive the composition of the solar photosphere from solar material. SW analyses control the precision of the derived solar compositions, but their ultimate accuracy is limited by the theoretical or empirical models of fractionation due to SW formation. Mg isotopes are “ground truth” for these models since, except for CAIs, planetary materials have a uniform Mg isotopic composition (within ≤1‰) so any significant isotopic fractionation of SW Mg is primarily that of SW formation and subsequent acceleration through the corona. This study analyzed Mg isotopes in a bulk SW diamond‐like carbon (DLC) film on silicon collector returned by the Genesis Mission. A novel data reduction technique was required to account for variable ion yield and instrumental mass fractionation (IMF) in the DLC. The resulting SW Mg fractionation relative to the DSM‐3 laboratory standard was (?14.4‰, ?30.2‰) ± (4.1‰, 5.5‰), where the uncertainty is 2? SE of the data combined with a 2.5‰ (total) error in the IMF determination. Two of the SW fractionation models considered generally agreed with our data. Their possible ramifications are discussed for O isotopes based on the CAI nebular composition of McKeegan et al. (2011).  相似文献   

13.
A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21?–?24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about \(140 \pm30\) solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of \(135 \pm25\). This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near \(2025.2 \pm1.5\) year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.  相似文献   

14.
Significant discrepancies are often observed among the values of the mean magnetic field (MMF) of the Sun as a star observed by various instruments using various spectral lines. This is conventionally attributed to the measurement errors and “saturation” of a solar magnetograph in fine-structure photospheric elements with a strong magnetic field. Measurements of the longitudinal MMF performed in 1968–2006 at six observatories are compared in this paper. It is shown that the degree of discrepancy (slopes b of linear regression lines) varies significantly over the phase of the 11-year cycle. This gives rise to a paradox: the magnetograph calibration is affected by the state of the Sun itself. The proposed explanation is based on quantum properties of light, namely, nonlocality and “coupling” of photons whose polarization at the telescope-spectrograph output is determined by spacious parts of the solar disk. In this case, the degree of coupling, or “identity,” of photons depends on the field distribution in the photosphere and the instrument design (as Bohr said, “the instrument inevitably affects the result”). The “puzzling” values of slope b are readily explained by the dependence of the coupling on the solar-cycle phase. The very statistical nature of light makes discrepancies unavoidable and requires the simple averaging of data to obtain the best approximation of the actual MMF. A 39-year time series of the MMF absolute value is presented, which is indicative of significant variations in the magnitude of the solar magnetic field with a cycle period of 10.5(7) yr.  相似文献   

15.
Several studies show that temporal variations in the Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity display a distinct 11-year periodicity due to solar modulation of the galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere. The 11-year periodicity of GCRs is inversely proportional to, but out of phase with, the 11-year solar cycle, implying that there is a time lag between actual solar cycle and the GCR intensity, which is known as the hysteresis effect. In this study, we use the hysteresis effect to model the relationship between neutron counting rates (NCRs), an indicator of the GCR intensity, and sunspot numbers (SSNs) over the period that covers the last four solar cycles (20, 21, 22, and 23). Both linear and ellipse models were applied to SSNs during odd and even cycles in order to calculate temporal variations of NCRs. We find that ellipse modeling provides higher correlation coefficients for odd cycles compared to linear models, e.g. 0.97, 0.97, 0.92, and 0.97 compared to 0.69, 0.72, 0.53, and 0.68 for data from McMurdo, Swarthmore, South Pole, and Thule neutron monitors, respectively, during solar cycle 21 with overall improvement of 31 % for odd cycles. When combined to a continuous model, the better correlation observed for the odd cycles increases the overall correlation between observed and modeled NCRs. The new empirical model therefore provides a better representation of the relationship between NCRs and SSNs. A major goal of the ongoing research is to use the new non-linear empirical model to reconstruct SSNs on annual time scales prior to 1610, where we do not have observational records of SSNs, based on changes in NCRs reconstructed from 10Be in ice cores.  相似文献   

16.
As an important measurement parameter, global total electron content (TEC) is appropriate for the study of the Sun–Earth connection. In this paper, the wavelet technique is employed to investigate the periodicities in global mean TEC during 1995–2008. Analysis results show several remarkable components (including 27-day, semiannual and annual cycles) existing in global mean TEC with obvious time-variable characteristics, besides 11-year cycle. After analyzing sunspot numbers and solar extreme ultra-violet (EUV) radiation variations during this time period, except for semiannual variations, close correlation between global mean TEC and solar variations is found, especially, a strong resemblance of the 27-day fluctuation exists in global mean TEC, sunspot and solar EUV radiation variations.  相似文献   

17.
Regular solar spectral irradiance (SSI) observations from space that simultaneously cover the UV, visible (vis), and the near-IR (NIR) spectral region began with SCIAMACHY aboard ENVISAT in August 2002. Up to now, these direct observations cover less than a decade. In order for these SSI measurements to be useful in assessing the role of the Sun in climate change, records covering more than an eleven-year solar cycle are required. By using our recently developed empirical SCIA proxy model, we reconstruct daily SSI values over several decades by using solar proxies scaled to short-term SCIAMACHY solar irradiance observations to describe decadal irradiance changes. These calculations are compared to existing solar data: the UV data from SUSIM/UARS, from the DeLand & Cebula satellite composite, and the SIP model (S2K+VUV2002); and UV-vis-IR data from the NRLSSI and SATIRE models, and SIM/SORCE measurements. The mean SSI of the latter models show good agreement (less than 5%) in the vis regions over three decades while larger disagreements (10 – 20%) are found in the UV and IR regions. Between minima and maxima of Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23, the inferred SSI variability from the SCIA proxy is intermediate between SATIRE and NRLSSI in the UV. While the DeLand & Cebula composite provide the highest variability between solar minimum and maximum, the SIP/Solar2000 and NRLSSI models show minimum variability, which may be due to the use of a single proxy in the modeling of the irradiances. In the vis-IR spectral region, the SCIA proxy model reports lower values in the changes from solar maximum to minimum, which may be attributed to overestimations of the sunspot proxy used in modeling the SCIAMACHY irradiances. The fairly short timeseries of SIM/SORCE shows a steeper decreasing (increasing) trend in the UV (vis) than the other data during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23. Though considered to be only provisional, the opposite trend seen in the visible SIM data challenges the validity of proxy-based linear extrapolation commonly used in reconstructing past irradiances.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract— The He, Ne, and Ar compositions of 32 individual interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) were measured using low‐blank laser probe gas extraction. These measurements reveal definitive evidence of space exposure. The Ne and Ar isotopic compositions in the IDPs are primarily a mixture between solar wind (SW) and an isotopically heavier component dubbed “fractionated solar” (FS), which could be implantation‐fractionated solar wind or a distinct component of the solar corpuscular radiation previously identified as solar energetic particles (SEP). Space exposure ages based on the Ar content of individual IDPs are estimated for a subset of the grains that appear to have escaped significant volatile losses during atmosphere entry. Although model‐dependent, most of the particles in this subset have ages that are roughly consistent with origin in the asteroid belt. A short (<1000 years) space exposure age is inferred for one particle, which is suggestive of cometary origin. Among the subset of grains that show some evidence for relatively high atmospheric entry heating, two possess elevated 21Ne/22Ne ratios generated by extended exposure to solar and galactic cosmic rays. The inferred cosmic ray exposure ages of these particles exceeds 107 years, which tends to rule out origin in the asteroid belt. A favorable possibility is that these 21Ne‐rich IDPs previously resided on a relatively stable regolith of an Edgeworth‐Kuiper belt or Oort cloud body and were introduced into the inner solar system by cometary activity. These results demonstrate the utility of noble gas measurements in constraining models for the origins of interplanetary dust particles.  相似文献   

19.
Statistical characteristics of meteoroids with kinetic energy from 0.1 to 440 kt TNT are estimated based on NASA satellite observations made in 1994–2016. The distributions of the number of falling meteoroids are constructed and analyzed based on the values of their initial kinetic energy, initial velocity, initial mass, altitude, geographic coordinates of the maximum total radiated energy region, and the year of the fall. Correlation dependences “mass–initial kinetic energy,” “maximum total radiated energy region altitude–initial kinetic energy,” and “maximum total radiated energy region altitude–initial velocity (the square of the initial velocity)” are constructed.  相似文献   

20.
21 naked-eye sunspot records in the 17th century, hitherto unknown, have been gleaned from a large collection of local gazettes of China. Based on these data, together with the telescopic records of contemporary Europe, we discuss in detail the solar activity during the 17th century. We have re-examined Wolf's years of maxima and minima and given improved values. We re-evaluate the question of the “Maunder Minimum” and conclude that it is an incorrect inference due to insufficient data.  相似文献   

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