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1.
The 4th IPCC report highlights the increased vulnerability of the coastal areas from floods due to sea-level rise (SLR).
The existing coastal flood control structures in Bangladesh are not adequate to adapt these changes and new measures are urgently
necessary. It is important to determine the impacts of SLR on flooding to analyse the performance of the existing structures
and corresponding impact to plan for suitable adaptation and mitigation measures to reduce the impacts of floods on coastal
zone. The study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the possible effects of SLR on floods in the coastal zone
of Bangladesh. A hydrodynamic model, which is a combination of surface and river parts, was utilized for flood simulation.
The tool was applied under a range of future scenarios, and results indicate both spatial variability of risk and changes
in flood characteristics between now and under SLR. Estimated impact on population, infrastructure and transportation is also
exposed. These types of impact estimation would be of value to flood plain management authorities to minimize the socio-economic
impact. 相似文献
2.
Extreme sea-level events (e.g. caused by storm surges) can cause coastal flooding, and considerable disruption and damage. To understand the impacts or hazards expected by different sea levels, waves and defence failures, it is useful to monitor and analyse coastal flood events, including generating numerical simulations of floodplain inundation. Ideally, any such modelling should be calibrated and validated using information recorded during real events, which can also add plausibility to synthetic flood event simulations. However, such data are rarely compiled for coastal floods. This paper demonstrates the capture of such a flood event dataset, and its integration with defence and floodplain modelling to reconstruct, archive and better understand the regional impacts of the event. The case-study event comprised a significant storm surge, high tide and waves in the English Channel on 10 March 2008, which resulted in flooding in at least 37 distinct areas across the Solent, UK (mainly due to overflow and outflanking of defences). The land area flooded may have exceeded 7 km2, with the breaching of a shingle barrier at Selsey contributing to up to 90 % of this area. Whilst sea floods are common in the Solent, this is the first regional dataset on flood extent. The compilation of data for the validation of coastal inundation modelling is discussed, and the implications for the analysis of future coastal flooding threats to population, business and infrastructure in the region. 相似文献
3.
Amy C. Ruocco Robert J. Nicholls Ivan D. Haigh Matthew P. Wadey 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(3):1773-1796
Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast
of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and
the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo, based in Southampton and The News, based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between
the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding
which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted
from the storm surge events of 13–17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that
while extreme sea-level events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed
to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent
events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth)
was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves. 相似文献
4.
5.
Coastal regions are the areas most threatened by natural hazards, with floods being the most frequent and significant threat in terms of their induced impacts, and therefore, any management scheme requires their evaluation. In coastal areas, flooding is a hazard associated with various processes acting at different scales: coastal storms, flash floods, and sea level rise (SLR). In order to address the problem as a whole, this study presents a methodology to undertake a preliminary integrated risk assessment that determines the magnitude of the different flood processes (flash flood, marine storm, SLR) and their associated consequences, taking into account their temporal and spatial scales. The risk is quantified using specific indicators to assess the magnitude of the hazard (for each component) and the consequences in a common scale. This allows for a robust comparison of the spatial risk distribution along the coast in order to identify both the areas at greatest risk and the risk components that have the greatest impact. This methodology is applied on the Maresme coast (NW Mediterranean, Spain), which can be considered representative of developed areas of the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The results obtained characterise this coastline as an area of relatively low overall risk, although some hot spots have been identified with high-risk values, with flash flooding being the principal risk process. 相似文献
6.
Paul William Kojo Yankson Alex Barimah Owusu George Owusu John Boakye-Danquah Jacob Doku Tetteh 《Natural Hazards》2017,89(2):661-689
Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy. 相似文献
7.
The main objective of this writing is to present a practical way to envisage the flood vulnerability in deltaic region, particularly
on the concern of sea level rise. Kuching city of Malaysia is established on banks of Sarawak River, 30 km from the sea. Therefore,
it is subjected to fluvial and tidal floods. Kuching Bay experiences the highest King Tides in Southeast Asia region. These
tide magnitudes could be a glimpse of future sea level rise. By means of modelling these tides, it provides an understanding
and preparation for the impacts of sea level rise on the flood mitigation infrastructures and the city itself. The modelling
efforts had created an illustration that a 10% rise in tide levels would result in increase of flooding areas up to 6% relative
to existing tide levels. 相似文献
8.
Mohammad Karamouz Ali Razmi Sara Nazif Zahra Zahmatkesh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(11):395
Due to increasing flood severities and frequencies, studies on coastal vulnerability assessment are of increasing concern. Evaluation of flood inundation depth and extent is the first issue in flood vulnerability analysis. This study has proposed a practical framework for reliable coastal floodplain delineation considering both inland and coastal flooding. New York City (NYC) has been considered as the case study because of its vulnerability to storm surge-induced hazards. For floodplain delineation, a distributed hydrologic model is used. In the proposed method, the severities of combined inland and coastal floods for different recurrence intervals are determined. Through analyzing past storms in the study region, a referenced (base) configuration of rainfall and storm surge is selected to be used for defining flood scenarios with different return periods. The inundated areas are determined under different flooding scenarios. The inundation maps of 2012 superstorm Sandy in NYC is simulated and compared with the FEMA revised maps which shows a close agreement. This methodology could be of significant value to the planners and engineers working on the preparedness of coastal urban communities against storms by providing a platform for updating inundation maps as new events are observed and new information becomes available. 相似文献
9.
This article explores the impacts of floods on the economy, environment, and society and tries to clarify the rural community’s
coping mechanism to flood disasters in Central Viet Nam. It focuses on the social aspects of flood risk perception that shapes
the responses to floods. The research findings revealed that flooding is an essential element for a coastal population, whose
livelihood depend on productive functions of cyclical floods. The findings also revealed that floods, causing losses and damages,
often inhibited economic development. The surveyed communities appeared to have evolved coping mechanisms to reduce the negative
impacts of the floods, yet these coping mechanisms are under pressure due to environmental degradation. Integrated flood risk
management is considered as a suitable paradigm for coping with flood disasters.
相似文献
| Phong TranEmail: |
10.
Han Song Tang Steven I-Jy Chien Marouane Temimi Cheryl Ann Blain Qu Ke Liuhui Zhao Simon Kraatz 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):141-163
Catastrophic flooding associated with sea-level rise and change of hurricane patterns has put the northeastern coastal regions of the United States at a greater risk. In this paper, we predict coastal flooding at the east bank of Delaware Bay and analyze the resulting impact on residents and transportation infrastructure. The three-dimensional coastal ocean model FVCOM coupled with a two-dimensional shallow water model is used to simulate hydrodynamic flooding from coastal ocean water with fine-resolution meshes, and a topography-based hydrologic method is applied to estimate inland flooding due to precipitation. The entire flooded areas with a range of storm intensity (i.e., no storm, 10-, and 50-year storm) and sea-level rise (i.e., current, 10-, and 50-year sea level) are thus determined. The populations in the study region in 10 and 50 years are predicted using an economic-demographic model. With the aid of ArcGIS, detailed analysis of affected population and transportation systems including highway networks, railroads, and bridges is presented for all of the flood scenarios. It is concluded that sea-level rise will lead to a substantial increase in vulnerability of residents and transportation infrastructure to storm floods, and such a flood tends to affect more population in Cape May County but more transportation facilities in Cumberland County, New Jersey. 相似文献
11.
Overwash is one of the most prominent hazards affecting coastal zones, and the associated consequences are expected to increase because of both sea-level rise and intensification of coastal occupation. This study used a 23-year data set of wave heights and tide-surge levels to define return periods of overwash potential for current and future sea-level conditions, namely 2055 and 2100, at two sites from South Portugal. A relevant intensification of both frequency and magnitude of the overwash is expected to occur by mid-century if adaptation measures are not taken and further aggravated by 2100. Current overwash levels with a return period of 100-years can reach a return period lower than 20-years by 2055 and 10-years by 2100. However, these values are rather variable from site to site, highlighting the urgency to develop detailed local studies to identify climate change impacts along coastal sectors, based on validated equations and long-term time series. These could be easily carried by replicating and adapting the here proposed methodology to sandy coasts worldwide. Understating the impact that climate change (namely sea-level rise) may have at the local level is key to contribute to effective management plans that include adaptation measures to minimize risks associated with coastal floods.
相似文献12.
Climate change is presently a major global challenge. As the world??s largest developing country, China is particularly vulnerable to global warming, especially in the rapidly developing coastal regions in the southeast of the country. This paper provides an overview of the impacts of climate change on the nature of geological disasters in the coastal regions of southeastern China. In the context of climate change, processes with the potential for causing geological disasters in this region, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, storm surges, and slope failures, which already have a substantial occurrence history, are all aggravated. All these processes have their own characteristics and relevance to climate change. Sea-level rise together with land subsidence reduces the function of dikes and flood prevention infrastructure in the study areas and makes the region more vulnerable to typhoons, storm surges, floods, and astronomical tidal effects. Storm surges have caused great losses in the study areas and also have contributed to increases in rainstorms. As a result, numerous rainfall-induced slope failures, characterized by focused time concentration, high frequencies, strong ??burstiness,?? and substantial damage, occur in the study areas. To prevent and mitigate such disasters that are accelerated by climate change, and to reduce losses, a series of measures is proposed that may help to achieve sustainable development in coastal southeastern China. 相似文献
13.
Bangladesh is one of the most natural hazard-prone countries in the world with the greatest negative consequences being associated with cyclones, devastating floods, riverbank erosion, drought, earthquake, and arsenic contamination, etc. One way or other, these natural hazards engulfed every corner of Bangladesh. The main aim of this research paper is to carry out a multi-hazards risk and vulnerability assessment for the coastal Matlab municipality in Bangladesh and to recommend possible mitigation measures. To this aim, hazards are prioritized by integrating SMUG and FEMA models, and a participation process is implemented so as to involve community both in the risk assessment and in the identification of adaptation strategies. The Matlab municipality is highly vulnerable to several natural hazards such as cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. The SMUG is a qualitative assessment, while FEMA is a quantitative assessment of hazards. The FEMA model suggests a threshold of highest 100 points. All hazards that total more than 100 points may receive higher priority in emergency preparedness and mitigation measures. The FEMA model, because it judges each hazard individually in a numerical manner, may provide more satisfying results than the SMUG system. The spatial distributions of hazard, risk, social institutions, land use, and other resources indicate that the flood disaster is the top environmental problem of Matlab municipality. Hazard-specific probable mitigation measures are recommended with the discussion of local community. Finally, this study tries to provide insights into the way field research combining scientific assessments tools such as SMUG and FEMA could feed evidence-based decision-making processes for mitigation in vulnerable communities. 相似文献
14.
Cathleen Wigand Thomas Ardito Caitlin Chaffee Wenley Ferguson Suzanne Paton Kenneth Raposa Charles Vandemoer Elizabeth Watson 《Estuaries and Coasts》2017,40(3):682-693
Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coastal systems faced with deteriorating habitat, accelerated sea level rise, and changes in precipitation and storm patterns. 相似文献
15.
P. J. Ward M. A. Marfai F. Yulianto D. R. Hizbaron J. C. J. H. Aerts 《Natural Hazards》2011,56(3):899-916
Coastal flooding poses serious threats to coastal areas, and the vulnerability of coastal communities and economic sectors
to flooding will increase in the coming decades due to environmental and socioeconomic changes. It is increasingly recognised
that estimates of the vulnerability of cities are essential for planning adaptation measures. Jakarta is a case in point,
since parts of the city are subjected to regular flooding on a near-monthly basis. In order to assess the current and future
coastal flood hazard, we set up a GIS-based flood model of northern Jakarta to simulate inundated area and value of exposed
assets. Under current conditions, estimated damage exposure to extreme coastal flood events with return periods of 100 and
1,000 years is high (€4.0 and €5.2 billion, respectively). Under the scenario for 2100, damage exposure associated with these
events increases by a factor 4–5, with little difference between low/high sea-level rise scenarios. This increase is mainly
due to rapid land subsidence and excludes socioeconomic developments. We also develop a detemporalised inundation scenario
for assessing impacts associated with any coastal flood scenario. This allows for the identification of critical points above
which large increases in damage exposure can be expected and also for the assessment of adaptation options against hypothetical
user-defined levels of change, rather than being bound to a discrete set of a priori scenarios. The study highlights the need
for urgent attention to the land subsidence problem; a continuation of the current rate would result in catastrophic increases
in damage exposure. 相似文献
16.
Semarang is one of the biggest cities in Indonesia and is nowadays suffering from coastal flooding. Land subsidences, high
water tide, and inadequate structural measures play important roles in the coastal inundations. Structural and non-structural
methods for controlling coastal flooding including dykes, drainage systems, pump stations, polder systems, coastal-land reclamations,
coastal planning and management, public education, as well as the establishment of an institutional framework for disaster
management have been implemented in the Semarang coastal area. Although some improvements have been made, the current flood
management system has generally failed to address a wide range of coastal inundation problems. Some improvement actions have
been proposed including stakeholders involvement on the disaster mitigation. For a long period coastal management, accelerated
sea level rises due to global warming should also be taken into account. 相似文献
17.
An Environmental Risk Assessment/Management Framework for Climate Change Impact Assessments 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation.The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. 相似文献
18.
Coastal hazard mapping in the Cuddalore region, South India 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
It is estimated that nearly one-third of India’s population lives on the coast and is dependent on its resources. Shoreline erosion, storm surges and extreme events have resulted in severe loss of human life, damage to ecosystems and to property along the coast of India. Studies carried out in the Cuddalore region of South India reveal that this low-lying coastal zone, which suffered significant erosion during the last century, has been severely affected by the tsunami of 2004, storm floods and cyclones. In response to these impacts, a variety of coastal defense measures and adaptation strategies have been implemented in the region, although with only limited success. In order to inform future coastal planning in this region, the work reported here identifies a composite hazard line, seaward of which coastal flooding events will have a return interval of less than 1 in 100 years. The area landward of the coastal hazard line will be unaffected by 100 years of coastal erosion at present day rates. The study directly supports the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan of the Tamil Nadu State through the identification and assessment of coastal hazards and the overall vulnerability to coastal flooding and erosion. The key results from this pilot study will be used directly by the State of Tamil Nadu in the protection of the coastal livelihoods, better conservation measures and sustainable development along the coast. This study is a step toward mapping the hazard line for the entire coast of India that helps protect human lives and property. 相似文献
19.
冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究是以探索冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念为前提和基础,以冰冻圈变化的自然影响为链接点,以社会经济影响研究为突破,以脆弱性研究为桥梁与纽带,以应对与适应冰冻圈变化影响、风险为目的的冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向。探讨了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念,并以影响—脆弱性—适应为主线,针对冰冻圈变化的社会经济影响研究、脆弱性研究、适应研究内容及其关键科学问题、脆弱性评估模型、尺度问题进行了较为详细的阐述,初步搭建了中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系。基于冰冻圈要素的多样性、变化影响的复杂性与显著的区域差异性,从2个梯度勾绘了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究格局与空间布局。中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究除深化冰冻圈变化的影响与脆弱性研究之外,应加强不同利益相关者协同设计、共同参与的冰冻圈变化适应应用研究,并关注冰冻圈灾害风险、渐变风险研究。 相似文献
20.
The paper examines: (a) trends in climatic variations and variability with particular emphasis on rainfall (b) the characteristics
of climatic events, including floods and droughts, (c) seasonal variations in river flows, (d) mean annual trends in river
flows and discharges, (e) local variations of extremes of rainfall and river discharges, (f) the effects of climatic variability
and climate change on ground water variations, (g) the problems of acute shortage of freshwater, and (h) the prevalence of
water stress whose characteristics would be worsened with the projected impacts of climate change. The results show that:
(i) there are a lot of spatial and temporal variations in the characteristics of rainfall and the hydrological systems locally
and regionally, although in general, there have been downward trends in rainfall and increases in water deficits and drought
events, (ii) that flood events, which also have impacted adversely in many parts of the region, have also been witnessed.
The paper then produces projections for future urban and rural water supplies in Nigeria, which is an epitome of West Africa
and examines the two main categories of adaptation measures needed to improve water management, namely, those involving the
water supply and water demand systems in the study region. Finally, the paper discusses the need to address a number of mechanisms
for implementation of the various adaptation measures including: (a) building capacity and manpower, (b) promoting education
and public awareness, (c) public participation and the involvement of stakeholders, (d) the establishment of both national
and regional co-operation, and (e) the need for climatic and other environmental data collection and monitoring.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. 相似文献