共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 46 毫秒
1.
The knowledge of the present-day underground temperatures may be important in the assessments of the past climate change. The method of inversion of the temperature-depth records into the ground surface temperature history is briefly introduced by showing an example of synthetic data and illustrated by a review of existing results obtained from the inversion of temperature logs measured in holes in the Czech Republic. Underground temperatures observed in holes of the depth of at least 1000–1500 m seem to confirm the preinstrumental climate pattern of the past several thousand years. Most of shallower temperature records (500–800 m) revealed general warming of climate followed the Little Ice Age of the 17–18th centuries and a pronounced increase of the soil temperatures by at least 1 K since the beginning of this century. 相似文献
2.
A. Sh. Mukhtarov F. A. Kadirov V. A. Mamedov 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(6):524-528
In order to reconstruct the ground surface temperature history (GSTH) in the Kura depression from the data on borehole temperatures,
we selected two thermal logs, which met the requirements of the well temperature inversion into the GSTH. The temperature
gradients measured in these wells varied about 20 K/km, which is typical for the region of study. The borehole temperatures
were inverted into the ground surface temperatures in the past in accordance with the program developed by Po Yu Shen. It
was found that the ground surface temperature had increased by 1–2°C during the last century. The GSTH derived from the well
temperature inversion agrees with the climate temperatures measured at the Ganca meteorological station, which has been operating
since 1873. These results obtained for the Kura depression are consistent also with the results of similar studies in other
regions in the world. 相似文献
3.
— Well temperature logs from 61 sites located in discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions of northern Canada are analyzed. The method of functional space inversion (FSI) is applied to the set of precise temperature logs from wells located between 60 ° and 82 °N. There is strong evidence of extensive ground surface temperature (GST) warming beginning in the late 18th century and lasting until the 20th century. This was preceded by a lengthy period of cooling. The approximate average increase of the surface temperature of Canadian Arctic, based on all individual GST histories, is > 1.3 °C for the last 200 years. Simultaneous inversion of all well temperature data suggests an even higher warming (approximately 2 °C). There has been no strong south-to-north gradient in the ground warming magnitude when northern Canadian data are compared with eastern and central Canadian data south of 60 °N which also shows warming close to 2 °C. In Alaska, warming of some 2 °C has been restricted mainly to the 20th century. In general, however, a high warming magnitude is common for most of Canada and Alaska for the previous century. The averaged GST history (GSTH) for the Canadian Arctic is calibrated with and compares visually with a variety of recently published regional and hemispheric proxy climate reconstructions. These show that GST warming derived from well temperature logs is generally higher than one shown by other proxy (mainly tree-ring reconstructions).Received April, 2003 相似文献
4.
Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to –0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period. 相似文献
5.
Čermák Vladimír Šafanda Jan Krešl Milan Dědeček Petr Bodri Louise 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2000,44(3):430-441
Long-term (1961 – 1996) meteorological air temperature series together with the reconstructed ground surface temperature histories, obtained by inverting borehole temperature-depth profiles, were used to project regional patterns of the recent (climate) warming rate on the territory of the Czech Republic. The characteristic magnitude of the warming rate of 0.02 –0.03 K/yr was confirmed by the results of several years of monitoring the temperature in two experimental boreholes. The monitoring of shallow temperatures at depths of about 30 –40 m, i.e. below the reach of the seasonal surface temperature variations, can serve as an alternative tool of direct quantitative assessment of the present warming rate. The data also seem to sustain a potential man-made component contributing to the more pronounced recent warming rate observed in the areas of large agglomeration. 相似文献
6.
Groundwater temperature is an important water quality parameter that affects species distributions in subsurface and surface environments. To investigate the response of subsurface temperature to atmospheric climate change, an analytical solution is derived for a one‐dimensional, transient conduction–advection equation and verified with numerical methods using the finite element code SUTRA. The solution can be directly applied to forward model the impact of future climate change on subsurface temperature profiles or inversely applied to produce a surface temperature history from measured borehole profiles. The initial conditions are represented using superimposed linear and exponential functions, and the boundary condition is expressed as an exponential function. This solution expands on a classic solution in which the initial and boundary conditions were restricted to linear functions. The exponential functions allow more flexibility in matching climate model projections (boundary conditions) and measured temperature–depth profiles (initial conditions). For example, measured borehole temperature data from the Sendai Plain and Tokyo, Japan, were used to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the exponential function for replicating temperature–depth profiles. Also, the improved accuracy of the exponential boundary condition was demonstrated using air temperature anomaly data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These air temperature anomalies were then used to forward model the effect of surficial thermal perturbations in subsurface environments with significant groundwater flow. The simulation results indicate that recharge can accelerate shallow subsurface warming, whereas upward groundwater discharge can enhance deeper subsurface warming. Additionally, the simulation results demonstrate that future groundwater temperatures obtained from the proposed analytical solution can deviate significantly from those produced with the classic solution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Temperature variations recovered from tree-rings in the middle Qilian Mountain over the last millennium 总被引：21，自引：5，他引：16
LIU Xiaohong QIN Dahe SHAO Xuemei CHEN Tuo & REN Jiawen . Cold Arid Regions Environmental Engineering Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences Lanzhou China . Institute of Geographical Sciences Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(4):521-529
During the past 1000 years, there had been sev-eral widespread climate events on the earth, such asthe ‘Medieval Warm Period’, the ‘Little Ice Age’ andthe recent warming from the later part of the nine-teenth century onward[1,2]. To better understand thedetails of climatic history on a regional scale, morehigh-resolution, millennia-length climate reconstruc-tions are needed by intensive, multiproxy investigationof ice cores, sediments of loess and lakes, corals andtree-rings. Since … 相似文献
8.
9.
Jacek A. Majorowicz 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1996,147(1):1-24
The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the ramp function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the step function model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth. 相似文献
10.
We estimated the effects of hydrogeological and surface temperature warming on subsurface thermal regime from the temperature-depth profiles and hydrological data of groundwater quality both in the quaternary and tertiary systems in the Sendai Plain as a preliminary step toward reconstruction of climate changes.Annual mean air temperature in the plain has increased about 1.5 °C in the last 70 years and this surface warming resulted in low or negative thermal gradient. However, anomaly of thermal gradient was recognized in not all temperature-depth profiles. Groundwater chemical compositions and stable isotope data (δD and δ18O) show that the groundwater flow system has marked difference between those of tertiary and quaternary systems. Calculated results of three dimensional groundwater flow and heat transport model ensure the above hypothesis and shows that thermal gradient changes at close to basement of the quaternary system. The differences in groundwater flow systems are expressed as subsurface thermal gradient anomalies in the temperature-depth profiles in the Sendai Plain. Furthermore, one-dimensional numerical analyze including the effect of surface warming indicates that calculated profile has departure from steady state line at depths in 60-80 m agree well with observed one. 相似文献
11.
Shusaku Goto Hideki Hamamoto Makoto Yamano 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2005,152(4):314-325
In order to infer past climatic change in central Japan, we measured temperatures in a borehole at the Karasuma site, on the southeastern coast of Lake Biwa, and reconstructed sediment surface temperature history during the last 3000 years. The reconstructed temperature history shows apparent Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, and contemporary temperature warming. However, the large amplitude of the temperature changes up to 4-5 K cannot be explained by past climatic change only, suggesting that there was some other cause of the larger amplitude temperature changes. The onsets of temperature decrease in the late 12th century a.d. and temperature increase in the mid 17th century a.d. appear to coincide with occurrences of two destructive earthquakes (1185 and 1662 a.d.) that caused water level changes of Lake Biwa. It suggests that the reconstructed sediment surface temperature history reflects the environmental change due to tectonically induced water level changes of the lake. If the annual mean of the ground surface temperature was higher than that of the bottom water temperature in a shallow part of the lake, which is consistent with the present-day data, the large amplitude of the sediment surface temperature change may be attributed to a combined effect of past climatic and environmental changes. Thus, we suggest that the borehole temperature at the Karasuma site preserves information not only on past climate changes but also on environmental changes due to tectonically induced water level changes. 相似文献
12.
Ola M. Johannessen Alexander Korablev Victoria Miles Martin W. Miles Knut E. Solberg 《Surveys in Geophysics》2011,32(4-5):387-396
Recent observations of ocean temperature in several Greenland fjords suggest that ocean warming can cause large changes in the outlet glaciers in these fjords. We have observed the Helheim outlet-glacier front in the Sermilik Fjord over the last three decades using satellite images, and the vertical fjord temperature and salinity during three summer expeditions, 2008?C2010. We show that the subsurface water below 250 m depth is the warm saline Atlantic Water from the Irminger Sea penetrating into the fjord and exposing the lower part of the Helheim glacier to warm water up to 4°C. Lagged correlation analysis spanning the 30-year time series, using the subsurface Atlantic Water temperature off the coast as a proxy for the variability of the subsurface warm Atlantic Water in the fjord, indicates that 24% of the Helheim ice-front movement can be accounted for by ocean temperature. A strong correlation (?C0.75) between the ice-front position and the surface air temperature from a nearby meteorological station suggests that the higher air temperature causes melting and subsequent downward percolation of meltwater through crevasses leading to basal lubrication; the correlation accounts for 56% of the ice-front movement. The precise contribution of air temperature versus ocean temperature however, remains an open question, as more oceanographic and meteorological measurements are needed close to the glacier terminus. 相似文献
13.
The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a central role for the climate in the Atlantic realm. Since scenarios
for future climate change indicate a significant reduction of the MOC under global warming, an assessment of variations and
trends of the real MOC is important. Using observations at ocean weather ship (OWS) stations and along oceanic sections, we
examine the hydrographic information that can be used to determine MOC trends via its signature in water mass properties obtained
from model simulations with the climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. We show that temperature trends at mid-latitudes provide useful
indirect measure of large-scale changes of deep circulation: A mid-depth warming is related to MOC weakening and a cooling
to MOC strengthening. Based on our model experiments, we argue that a continuation of measurements at key OWS sites may contribute
to a timely detection of a possible future MOC slowdown and to separate the signal from interannual-to-multidecadal MOC variability.
The simulations suggest that the subsurface hydrographic information related to MOC has a lower variability than the MOC trend
measured directly. Based on our model and the available long-term hydrographic data, we estimate non-significant MOC trends
for the last 80 years. For the twenty-first century, however, the model simulations predict a significant MOC decline and
accompanied mid-depth warming trend. 相似文献
14.
Although temperature is an important determinant of many biogeochemical processes in groundwater, very few studies have attempted to forecast the response of groundwater temperature to future climate warming. Using a composite linear regression model based on the lagged relationship between historical groundwater and regional air temperature data, empirical forecasts were made of groundwater temperature in several aquifers in Switzerland up to the end of the current century. The model was fed with regional air temperature projections calculated for greenhouse‐gas emissions scenarios A2, A1B, and RCP3PD. Model evaluation revealed that the approach taken is adequate only when the data used to calibrate the models are sufficiently long and contain sufficient variability. These conditions were satisfied for three aquifers, all fed by riverbank infiltration. The forecasts suggest that with respect to the reference period 1980 to 2009, groundwater temperature in these aquifers will most likely increase by 1.1 to 3.8 K by the end of the current century, depending on the greenhouse‐gas emissions scenario employed. 相似文献
15.
Carla Manciati Marcos Villacís Jean-Denis Taupin Eric Cadier Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez Bolívar Cáceres 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1519-1535
AbstractMost Latin American glaciers are located in the tropical Andes. The melting processes of Glacier “15” on Antisana volcano were studied to understand the relationship between glacier retreat and natural climate variability and global climate change. Glaciers on the Antisana volcano are crucial sources of water as they feed the headwater rivers that supply Quito with potable water. The aim of this study was to build empirical models based on multiple correlations to reconstruct the mass loss of glaciers over a period of 10 years at three scales: local (data recorded by meteorological stations located around the volcano), regional (data from stations located around the country) and global (re-analysis data). Data quality was checked using graphical and statistical methods. Several empirical models based on multiple correlations were created to generate longer time series (42 and 115 years) of the mass balance for the glacier ablation zone. The long mass balance series were compared with the temperature variation series of the Earth’s surface in the Southern Hemisphere to estimate the relation between the mass balance and global warming. Our results suggest that the meteorological factors that best correlate with mass balance are temperature and wind.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
16.
XuChao Yang YiLi Zhang LinShan Liu Wei Zhang MingJun Ding ZhaoFeng Wang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2009,52(8):1207-1215
Using CRU high resolution grid observational temperature and ERA40 reanalysis surface air temperature data during 1960–1999,
we investigated the sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China by subtracting the reanalysis
from the observed surface air temperature (observation minus reanalysis, OMR). The results show that there is a stable and
systemic impact of land use/cover types on surface air temperature. The surface warming of each land use/cover type reacted
differently to global warming. The OMR trends of unused land (⩾0.17 °C/decade), mainly comprised by sandy land, Gobi and bare
rock gravel land, are obviously larger than those of the other land use/cover types. The OMR over grassland, farmland and
construction land shows a moderate decadal warmingabout 0.12°C/decade, 0.10°C/decade, 0.12°C/decade, respectively. Woodland
areas do not show a significant warming trend (0.06°C/decade). The overall assessment indicates that the surface warming is
larger for areas that are barren and anthropogenically developed. The better the vegetation cover, the smaller the OMR warming
trend. Responses of surface air temperature to land use/cover types with similar physical and chemical properties and biological
processes have no significant difference. The surface air temperature would not react significantly until the intensity of
land cover changes reach a certain degree. Within the same land use/cover type, areas in eastern China with intensive human
activities exhibit larger warming trend. The results provide observational evidence for modeling research on the impact of
land use/cover change on regional climate. Thus, projecting further surface climate of China in regional scale should not
only take greenhouse gas increase into account, but also consider the impact of land use/cover types and land cover change.
Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2005CB422006), National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant Nos. 90202012, 40771206) 相似文献
17.
Long-term variability of heat content (HC) in the upper 1,000 m of the Arctic Ocean is investigated using surface and subsurface
temperature and current data during 1958–2005 compiled by Simple Ocean Data Assimilation. Annual cycle of the Arctic Ocean
HC is controlled primarily by the negative and positive excursions in net upper ocean heat flux, while the inter-annual variability
is mainly associated with meridional thermal advection from the North Atlantic Ocean. Variability in HC is experienced as
a basin-wide cooling/warming in association with the Arctic Oscillation on a decadal time scale. In the first three dominant
modes of Empirical Orthogonal Function, the maximum amplitude of HC variability occurs in the Greenland–Norwegian Sea and
Eurasian Basin. In general, HC showed increasing trend during 1958–2005 indicating continuous warming with regional variations
in magnitude. 相似文献
18.
在最新的SRES A2和B2温室气体排放情景下,利用国际上7个气候模式针对未来全球变暖的数值模拟结果,本文着重分析了东亚区域气候21世纪的变化趋势. 研究揭示：中国大陆年均表面气温升高过程与全球同步,但增幅在东北、西部和华中地区较大,且表现出明显的年际变化;全球年均表面气温增幅纬向上大体呈带状分布,两极地区最为明显,并在北极地区达到最大;此外,21世纪后半段北半球高纬度地区的年平均强升温幅度主要来自于冬季增温. 在21世纪前50年,温室气体含量的增加除在一定程度上会增加青藏高原大部分夏季降水量外,不会对中国大陆其余地区的年、季节平均降水量产生较大影响;但持续的温室气体含量增加将最终导致大陆降水量几乎是全域性的增加. 相似文献
19.
The Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)contains a group of state-of-the-art climate models and represents the highest level of climate simulation thus far.However,these models significantly overestimated global mean surface temperature(GMST)during 2006-2014.Based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD)method,the long term change of the observed GMST time series of HadCRUT4 records during 1850-2014 was analyzed,then the simulated GMST by 33 CMIP5 climate models was assessed.The possible reason that climate models failed to project the recent global warming hiatus was revealed.Results show that during 1850-2014 the GMST on a centennial timescale rose with fluctuation,dominated by the secular trend and the multi-decadal variability(MDV).The secular trend was relatively steady beginning in the early 20th century,with an average warming rate of 0.0883℃/decade over the last 50 years.While the MDV(with a~65-year cycle)showed2.5 multi-decadal waves during 1850-2014,which deepened and steepened with time,the alarming warming over the last quarter of the 20th century was a result of the concurrence of the secular warming trend and the warming phase of the MDV,both of which accounted one third of the temperature increase during 1975-1998.Recently the slowdown of global warming emerged as the MDV approached its third peak,leading to a reduction in the warming rate.A comparative analysis between the GMST time series derived from HadCRUT4 records and 33 CMIP5 model outputs reveals that the GMSTs during the historical simulation period of 1850-2005 can be reproduced well by models,especially on the accelerated global warming over the last quarter of 20th century.However,the projected GMSTs and their linear trends during 2006-2014 under the RCP4.5 scenario were significantly higher than observed.This is because the CMIP5 models confused the MDV with secular trend underlying the GMST time series,which results in a fast secular trend and an improper MDV with irregular phases and small amplitudes.This implies that the role of atmospheric CO_2 in global warming may be overestimated,while the MDV which is an interior oscillation of the climate system may be underestimated,which should be related to insufficient understanding of key climatic internal dynamic processes.Our study puts forward an important criterion for the new generation of climate models:they should be able to simulate both the secular trend and the MDV of GMST. 相似文献
20.
The subsurface temperature field was studied on a set of 46 borehole logs measured in the vicinity of uranium deposits in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin. Vertical variations of the steady state temperature and the temperature gradient are governed by thermal conductivity which strongly varies in dependence on lithology. Large departures from undisturbed temperature detected in many holes are associated with uranium mining. A positive anomaly is observed in leaching fields where large amounts of acid are injected into the uranium-bearing Cenomanian. A negative anomaly is linked to the operation of hydraulic barriers which enclose the mining area and helps to contain pollution by pumping clean water into the Cenomanian aquifer. The spatial distribution of the observed temperature anomalies helps to map the migration of the fluids used in both processes.
The temperature disturbance is propagated from the Cenomanian aquifer up through overlying impermeable sediments. The good fit of transient conductive models to the measured temperatures rules out heat advection and hence upward water flow towards and contamination of the upper Middle Turonian aquifer in the vicinity of the holes studied. 相似文献