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1.
利用1995～1998年南阳机场气象资料,分析了南阳机场冬季辐射雾形成的有利天气形势和物理量指标,并建立了辐射雾生成和消散的预报方法. 相似文献
2.
刘作华 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》1994,(6)
本文由两部分组成，第一部分对伊犁机场辐射雾生消的物理过程、天气形势、气候特征进行了必要分析。在此基础上概括出生成辐射雾的概念模式，为辐射雾生成的预报提供了一种依据。第二部分选取实况资料、筛选预报因子，采用多因子相关法律立客观预报方程。结果表明，方程拟含率高于主观预报准确率。可为今后的业务工作提供参考。 相似文献
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利用机场自动气象观测系统数据和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对昭通机场2019年1月3日("1·3"过程)和12月7日("12·7"过程)两次辐射雾过程的天气形势、水汽条件和边界层结构等进行对比分析,探讨了两次辐射雾形成和维持条件的共性和差异。结果表明:(1)两次过程均发生在雨雪天气转晴后,机场受高压底后部弱气压场控制,但"1·3"过程水汽含量和动力条件明显优于"12·7"过程,雾浓度和持续时间都大于"12·7"过程。(2)"1·3"过程是一次典型辐射雾,形成于晴夜、微风、辐射降温最强烈的凌晨。雾过程中水汽充沛,动力条件适宜,有利于雾的形成和发展。(3)"12·7"过程辐射雾具有局地爆发性发展的特征,雾爆发前由于水汽和动力条件较差,机场仅形成了轻雾。日出后由于西南方向的雾层向北平流,机场低温、高湿的环境条件有利于雾维持,近地面风速有利于雾层混合,使机场区域雾爆发发展。 相似文献
4.
桂林机场雾的天气统计特征分析及预报初探 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
对１９８６－１９９５年桂林机场的历史资料进行统计分析,从而得到桂林机场雾的分布特征及变化,并将桂林机场的雾分为辐射雾物和们随“两低”天气产生的雨雾两类,分别对其形成的天气形势、雾散时间的预报进行分析研究,为今后预报和分析桂林机场低能风度天气提供了有用的参考依据和预报思路。 相似文献
5.
对1986-1995年桂林机场的历史资料进行统计分析,从而得到桂林机场雾的分布特征及变化,并将桂林机场的雾分为辐射雾和伴随“两低”天气产生的雨雾两类,分别对其形成的天气形势、雾散时间的预报进行分析研究,为今后预报和分析桂林机场低能见度天气提供了有用的参考依据和预报思路。 相似文献
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洛阳机场辐射雾的预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
从统计资料看，洛阳机场影响能见工的雾绝大多数是辐射雾，平流雾的出现低于0．1％。辐射雾出现的常见形势是：洛阳处在地面弱高压中心附近或鞍形场、均压共内，地面为稳定东北风或风向不定，风速均≤3m/s，出现的前一天下午至晚上近地面湿度较大，前一天16时相对湿度均＞75％，天空背景为夜间晴朗少云，或碧空或只有高云县总云量不超过2／8，近地面层大气层结比较稳定。 相似文献
9.
利用广汉机场地面观测气象要素与08时探空资料,结合天气图,求取成雾露点温度和逆温层顶温,提出了预报冬半年(11月至次年2月)辐射雾生消的经验公式,经检验具有较高的准确率,在实际运用中取得了很好的效果. 相似文献
10.
利用广汉机场地面观测气象要素与08时探空资料,结合天气图,求取成雾露点温度和送温层顶温,提出了预报冬半年（11月至次年2月）辐射雾生消的经验公式,经检验具有较高的准确率,在实际运用中取得了很好的效果。 相似文献
11.
Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7
This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability. 相似文献
12.
The ‘Anthropocene’ concept provides a conceptual framework that encapsulates the current global situation in which society has an ever-greater dominating influence on Earth System functioning. Simulation models used to understand earth system dynamics provide early warning, scenario analysis and evaluation of environmental management and policies. This paper aims to assess the extent to which current models represent the Anthropocene and suggest ways forward. Current models do not fully reflect the typical characteristics of the Anthropocene, such as societal influences and interactions with natural processes, feedbacks and system dynamics, tele-connections, tipping points, thresholds and regime shifts. Based on an analysis of current model representations of Anthropocene dynamics, we identify ways to enhance the role of modeling tools to better help us understand Anthropocene dynamics and address sustainability issues arising from them. To explore sustainable futures (‘safe and operating spaces’), social processes and anthropogenic drivers of biophysical processes must be incorporated, to allow for a spectrum of potential impacts and responses at different societal levels. In this context, model development can play a major role in reconciling the different epistemologies of the disciplines that need to collaborate to capture changes in the functioning of socio-ecological systems. Feedbacks between system functioning and underlying endogenous drivers should be represented, rather than assuming the drivers to be exogenous to the modelled system or stationary in time and space. While global scale assessments are important, the global scale dynamics need to be connected to local realities and vice versa. The diversity of stakeholders and potential questions requires a diversification of models, avoiding the convergence towards single models that are able to answer a wide range of questions, but without sufficient specificity. The novel concept of the Anthropocene can help to develop innovative model representations and model architectures that are better suited to assist in designing sustainable solutions targeted at the users of the models and model results. 相似文献
13.
针对气候变暖采取稳健的适应措施已成为国际社会共识。该文综合了当前适应气候变化的国际谈判进展及已有的农业适应气候变化措施,指出适应资金严重不足,技术研发、应用与转让难以实施,以及适应气候变化行动实施能力的不足严重制约着适应气候变化行动的有效实施;关于农业适应气候变化的技术措施仍缺乏系统的理论研究与应用示范。在此基础上,提出了未来中国农业适应气候变化需要重点开展的研究任务,即农业气象灾变过程的新特点及其风险管理, 农业适应气候变化的大数据决策管理系统研发及适应气候变化的农业气候区划与减灾保产技术研究,以切实推进农业适应气候变化,为确保国家粮食安全与农业可持续发展提供支撑。 相似文献
14.
武占云 《气候变化研究进展》2021,17(5):559-569
空间规划是适应气候变化的重要政策工具之一,将适应气候变化目标纳入空间规划已经成为国际主流政策。中国适应气候变化的空间规划仍面临诸多问题和挑战,包括气候适应目标和理念薄弱、气候变化风险评估与空间规划尺度不匹配、适应和减缓策略的协同机制欠缺、技术标准和法律法规不完善等。文章结合国家适应气候变化战略和国土空间规划体系重构的目标要求,研究提出适应气候变化导向的国土空间规划框架体系和技术思路,以及将适应气候变化纳入空间规划编制审批、技术标准、实施监督以及法规政策等各个环节的思路与建议,以期通过空间规划的编制与监督实施促进适应气候变化目标的实现。 相似文献
15.
Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system. 相似文献
16.
Michael Grubb 《Climate Policy》2013,13(1):1-2
Despite the increasing interest in climate change policy in the US, little systematic research has been conducted on the willingness of individuals to change their behaviour to mitigate the problem. Understanding behavioural change is critical if federal and local governments intend to implement programmes requiring actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. This understudied aspect of climate change policy is addressed by quantitatively examining the degree to which residents living in the US are willing to alter their behaviour to mitigate climate change impacts, and by identifying the major factors contributing to this willingness. Based on a national survey, the reported willingness of individuals to alter behaviours is explained, using the components of risk, individual stress, capacity and ecological values. The findings indicate that specific personal traits and contextual characteristics trigger a significantly greater willingness to change longstanding behavioural patterns. These insights into the factors motivating behavioural change can provide guidance to decision makers at both federal and local levels on how best to implement climate change policies. 相似文献
17.
科学应对气候变化 建设江西生态文明 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
阐述了科学应对气候变化对实现“建设生态文明”战略目标的重要性。结合江西实际,分析了气候变化对江西农业、水资源、森林和其他生态系统的影响。在此基础上,提出了江西应对气候变化应采取的措施：一是进一步优化能源结构,大力发展循环经济,加强节能减排管理,以减缓温室气体排放;二是继续加强农业基础设施建设,推进农业结构和种植制度调整,选育抗逆品种,以加强农业生态建设;三是加强水资源管理与保护,进一步强化水利基础设施规划和建设;四是进一步完善森林生态系统建设,大力推进生态市、县和生态城市建设,健全林业有害生物检疫、测报和防虫服务体系,以加强森林和其他生态系统建设;五是研究和用好“排放权”特殊资源;六是采取加强气候变化相关科技工作的管理与协调,加强气候变化相关科研工作,加强气候变化领域科技人才建设,促进产业结构优化和升级,加强应对气候变化的节能减排科技成果的推广和转化,加大对气候变化科学研究与技术开发的资金投入等,以提高气候变化相关科技工作的水平和能力;七是发挥政府的推动作用,加强宣传、教育和培训工作,提高公众应对气候变化意识和水平。 相似文献
18.
A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Ioan Fazey Mike Kesby Anna Evely Ian Latham Daniel Wagatora Jude-Edward Hagasua Mark S. Reed Mike Christie 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):713-728
Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process. 相似文献
19.
Climate science to date demonstrates that natural and human systems must urgently adapt. Adaptation refers to changes in societies and ecological systems as they respond to both actual and anticipated impacts of the changing climate. While adaptation is not limited to the level of planning and policy, existing adaptation practice privileges institutional action. We argue that the definition of adaptation should be broadened to include the small, incremental changes made in our daily lives to accommodate the shifting ecologies in which we live. Drawing on critical adaptation research and our own ethnographic fieldwork in the Global South, we define everyday adaptation as the shifted ways a person works, eats, lives and thinks in response to climate realities, rather than the hardening of coastlines or the relocation of vulnerable structures. We integrate and build on existing scholarship on adaptation and the everyday to theorize the logics of everyday, hyperlocal adaptation. This hyperlocal scale is a critical component of any definition of adaptation and a useful lens for studying the way much of the global population adapts and will continue to adapt their lives to climate change. We offer two theoretical components of adaptation revealed by the everyday - adaptation labor and value adaptation – as lenses to see changes in everyday action. Through considering hyperlocal action, we then identify and explore four logics of everyday adaptation actions: lifestyle stability, socio-ecological reactivity, livelihood flexibility, and community capacity. Everyday adaptations are limited by individuals’ capacity to adapt and thereby determine the longevity, livability, and quality of life of places on the frontlines of climate change. We argue for understanding the aggregate effects of everyday adaptation in order to better align the actions of those living with climate change in their everyday lives and the large-scale adaptation projects aiming to protect them. 相似文献
20.
气候变暖是当今时代所面临的最大挑战之一。在全球应对气候变暖的同时,作为前沿经济理念和发展模式的低碳经济应运而生了。按照低碳经济的内涵,江西发展低碳经济面临着机遇和挑战,总体上对正在实现“进位赶超、跨越发展、加快崛起”的江西是后发优势。为此,要做好八个方面的工作：坚持发展与保护并重不动摇,全社会树立低碳经济理念与方式,持续开展节能减排,大力发展低碳能源,着力改善自然生态系统质量,建立低碳与生态工业园区,加强农村环境综合整治,以科技创新支持低碳经济。 相似文献