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1.
Rock masses contain ubiquitous multiscale heterogeneities, which (or whose boundaries) serve as the surfaces of discontinuity for some characteristics of the stress state, e.g., for the orientation of principal stress axes. Revealing the regularities that control these discontinuities is a key to understanding the processes taking place at the boundaries of the heterogeneities and for designing the correct procedures for reconstructing and theoretical modeling of tectonic stresses. In the present study, the local laws describing the refraction of the axes of extreme principal stresses T 1 (maximal tension in the deviatoric sense) and T 3 (maximal compression) of the Cauchy stress tensor at the transition over the elementary area n of discontinuity whose orientation is specified by the unit normal n are derived. It is assumed that on the area n of discontinuity, frictional contact takes place. No hypotheses are made on the constitutive equations, and a priori constraints are not posed on the orientation on the stress axes. Two domains, which adjoin area n on the opposite sides and are conventionally marked + and ?, are distinguished. In the case of the two-dimensional (2D) stress state, any principal stress axis on passing from domain ? to domain + remains in the same quadrant of the plane as the continuation of this axis in domain +. The sign and size of the refraction angle depend on the sign and amplitude of the jump of the normal stress, which is tangential to the surface of discontinuity. In the three-dimensional (3D) case, the refraction of axes T 1 and T 3 should be analyzed simultaneously. For each side, + and ?, the projections of the T 1 and T 3 axes on the generally oriented plane n form the shear sectors S + and S ?, which are determined unambiguously and to whose angular domains the possible directions p + and p ? of the shear stress vectors belong. In order for the extreme stress axes T 1 + ,T 3 + and T 1 ? , T 3 ? to be statically compatible on the generally oriented plane n, it is required that sectors S + and S ? had a nonempty intersection. The direction vectors p + and p ? are determined uniquely if, besides axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? and T 1 + , T 3 + , also the ratios of differential stresses R + and R ? (0 ≤ R ± ≤ 1) are known. This is equivalent to specifying the reduced stress tensors T R + and T R ? The necessary condition for tensors T R + and T R ? being statically compatible on plane n is the equality p + = p ?. In this paper, simple methods are suggested for solving the inverse problem of constructing the set of the orientations of the extreme stress axes from the known direction p of the shear stress vector on plane n and from the data on the shear sector. Based on these methods and using the necessary conditions of local equilibrium on plane n formulated above, all the possible orientations of axes T 1 + , T 3 + are determined if the projections of axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? axes on side — are given. The angle between the projections of axes T 1 + , T 1 ? and/or T 3 + , T 3 ? on the plane can attain 90°. Besides the general case, also the particular cases of the contact between the degenerate stress states and the special position of plane n relative to the principal stress axes are thoroughly examined. Generalization of the obtained results makes it possible to plot the local diagram of the orientations of axes T 1 + , T 3 + for a given sector S ?. This diagram is a so-called stress orientation sphere, which is subdivided into three pairs of areas (compression, tension, and compression-extension). The tension and compression zones cannot contain the poles of T 3 + and T 1 + axes, respectively. The compression-extension zones can contain the poles of either T 1 + or T 3 + axis but not both poles simultaneously. In the particular case when the shear stress vector has a unique direction p ? on side ?, the areas of compression-extension disappear and the diagram is reduced to a beach-ball plot, which visualizes the focal mechanism solution of an earthquake. If area n is a generally oriented plane and if the orientation of the pairs of the statically compatible axes T 1 ? , T 3 ? and T 1 + , T 3 + is specified, then, the stress values on side + are uniquely determined from the known stress values on side ?. From the value of differential stress ratio R ?, one can calculate the value of R +, and using the values of the principal stresses on side ?, determine the total stress tensor T + on side +. The obtained results are supported by the laboratory experiments and drilling data. In particular, these results disclose the drawbacks of some established notions and methods in which the possible refraction of the stress axes is unreasonably ignored or taken into account improperly. For example, it is generally misleading to associate the slip on the preexisting fault with the orientation of any particular trihedron of the principal stress axes. The reconstruction should address the potentially statically compatible principal stress axes, which are differently oriented on opposite sides of the fault plane. The fact that, based on the orientation of the intraplate principal stresses at the base of the lithosphere, one cannot make a conclusion on the active or passive influence of the mantle flows on the lithospheric plate motion is another example. The present relationships linking the stress values on the opposite sides of the fault plane on which the orientations of the principal stress axes are known demonstrate the incorrectness of the existing methods, in which the reduced stress tensors within the material domains are reconstructed without allowance for the dynamic interaction of these domains with their neighbors. In addition, using the obtained results, one can generalize the notion of the zone of dynamical control of a fault onto the case of the existence of discontinuities in this region and analyze the stress transfer across the system of the faults.  相似文献   

2.
We use a viscous slide model of Jiang and LeBlond (1994) coupled with nonlinear shallow water equations to study tsunami waves in Resurrection Bay, in south-central Alaska. The town of Seward, located at the head of Resurrection Bay, was hit hard by both tectonic and local landslide-generated tsunami waves during the M W 9.2 1964 earthquake with an epicenter located about 150 km northeast of Seward. Recent studies have estimated the total volume of underwater slide material that moved in Resurrection Bay during the earthquake to be about 211 million m3. Resurrection Bay is a glacial fjord with large tidal ranges and sediments accumulating on steep underwater slopes at a high rate. Also, it is located in a seismically active region above the Aleutian megathrust. All these factors make the town vulnerable to locally generated waves produced by underwater slope failures. Therefore it is crucial to assess the tsunami hazard related to local landslide-generated tsunamis in Resurrection Bay in order to conduct comprehensive tsunami inundation mapping at Seward. We use numerical modeling to recreate the landslides and tsunami waves of the 1964 earthquake to test the hypothesis that the local tsunami in Resurrection Bay has been produced by a number of different slope failures. We find that numerical results are in good agreement with the observational data, and the model could be employed to evaluate landslide tsunami hazard in Alaska fjords for the purposes of tsunami hazard mitigation.  相似文献   

3.
A modified formula of the cumulative frequency-magnitude relation has been formulated and tested in a previous paper by the authors of this study. Based on the modified relationship, the following reoccurrence formulas have been obtained.
  1. For the ‘T-years period’ larger earthquake magnitude,M T $$M_T = \frac{1}{{A_3 }}ln\frac{{A_2 }}{{(1/T) + A_1 }}.$$
  2. For the value of the maximum earthquake magnitude, which is exceeded with probabilityP inT-years period,M PT $$M_{PT} = \frac{{ln(A_2 .T)}}{{A_3 }} - \frac{{ln[A_1 .T - ln(1 - P)]}}{{A_3 }}.$$
  3. For the probability of occurrence of an earthquake of magnitudeM in aT-years period,P MT $$P_{MT} = 1 - \exp [ - T[ - A_1 + A_2 \exp ( - A_3 M)]].$$
The above formulas provide estimates of the probability of reoccurrence of the largest earthquake events which are significantly more realistic than those based on the Gutenberg-Richter relationships; at least for numerous tested earthquake samples from the major area of Greece.  相似文献   

4.
Unloaded natural rock masses are known to generate seismic signals (Green et al., 2006; Hainzl et al., 2006; Husen et al., 2007; Kraft et al., 2006). Following a 1,000 m3 mass failure into the Mediterranean Sea, centimeter-wide tensile cracks were observed to have developed on top of an unstable segment of the coastal cliff. Nanoseismic monitoring techniques (Wust-Bloch and Joswig, 2006; Joswig, 2008), which function as a seismic microscope for extremely weak seismic events, were applied to verify whether brittle failure is still generated within this unconsolidated sandstone mass and to determine whether it can be detected. Sixteen days after the initial mass failure, three small-aperture sparse arrays (Seismic Navigation Systems-SNS) were deployed on top of this 40-m high shoreline cliff. This paper analyzes dozens of spiky nanoseismic (?2.2 ≥ M L ≥ ?3.4) signals recorded over one night in continuous mode (at 200 Hz) at very short slant distances (3–67 m). Waveform characterization by sonogram analysis (Joswig, 2008) shows that these spiky signals are all short in duration (>0.5 s). Most of their signal energy is concentrated in the 10–75 Hz frequency range and the waveforms display high signal similarity. The detection threshold of the data set reaches M L ?3.4 at 15 m and M L ?2.7 at 67 m. The spatial distribution of source signals shows 3-D clustering within 10 m from the cliff edge. The time distribution of M L magnitude does not display any decay pattern of M L over time. This corroborates an unusual event decay over time (modified Omori’s law), whereby an initial quiet period is followed by regained activity, which then fades again. The polarization of maximal waveform amplitude was used to estimate spatial stress distribution. The orientation of ellipses displaying maximal signal energy is consistent with that of tensile cracks observed in the field and agrees with rock mechanics predictions. The M L– surface rupture length relationship displayed by our data fits a constant-slope extrapolation of empirical data collected by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for normal fault features at much larger scale. Signal characterization and location as well as the absence of direct anthropogenic noise sources near the monitoring site, all indicate that these nanoseismic signals are generated by brittle failure within the top section of the cliff. The atypical event decay over time that was observed suggests that the cliff material is undergoing post-collapse bulk strain accommodation. This feasibility study demonstrates the potential of nanoseismic monitoring in rapidly detecting, locating and analyzing brittle failure generated within unconsolidated material before total collapse occurs.  相似文献   

5.
Presently available data on the reaction of SO2 with OH radicals (OH + SO2 + \(M\xrightarrow[{k_1 }]{}\) HSO3 +M) are critically reviewed in light of recent stratospheric sulfur budget calculations. These calculations impose that the net oxidation ratek of SO2 within the stratosphere should fall within the range 10?7≤k≤10?9, if the SO2 oxidation model for the stratospheric sulfate layer is assumed to be correct. The effective reaction rate constantk 1 * =k 1[M] at the stratospheric temperature is estimated as $$k_1^* = \frac{{(8.2 \pm 2.2) \times 10^{ - 13} \times [M]}}{{(0.79 \mp 0.34) \times 10^{ - 13} + [M]}}cm^3 /molecules sec$$ where [M] refers to the total number density (molecules/cm3). Using the above limiting values ofk 1 * , and the estimated OH density concentrations, the net oxidation rate is calculated as 3.6×10?7≤k≤1.3×10?8 at 17 km altitude. This indicates that the upper limit of thesek values exceeds the tolerable range imposed by the model by a factor of about four. Obviously the uncertainty of thek 1 * values and of the OH concentrations in the stratosphere is still too large to make definite conclusions on the validity of the SO2 model.  相似文献   

6.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

7.
The relative rate constants of O2(b1Σ g + , v= 1–4) production at an inelastic interaction between electronically excited N(2D) atoms and O2(X3Σ g ? , v = 0) oxygen molecules have been calculated. It was shown that an increase in equilibrium distances between oxygen atoms in NO2 quasi-molecule, produced during the interaction, substantially increases the calculated relative production rates of O2(b1Σ g + , v > 1). The obtained coefficients are used to calculate the O2(b1Σ g + , v= 1–4) relative populations at 110 km (T = 250 K) and 150 km (T = 500 K) altitudes of the polar ionosphere. The calculated populations have been compared with the results of the published measurements of the Atmospheric system band luminosity intensities, and satisfactory agreement has been obtained for low altitudes.  相似文献   

8.
The present work is a continuation and improvement of the method suggested in Pisarenko et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 165:1–42, 2008) for the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes. The chief innovation is to combine the two main limit theorems of Extreme Value Theory (EVT) that allow us to derive the distribution of T-maxima (maximum magnitude occurring in sequential time intervals of duration T) for arbitrary T. This distribution enables one to derive any desired statistical characteristic of the future T-maximum. We propose a method for the estimation of the unknown parameters involved in the two limit theorems corresponding to the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and to the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We establish the direct relations between the parameters of these distributions, which permit to evaluate the distribution of the T-maxima for arbitrary T. The duality between the GEV and GPD provides a new way to check the consistency of the estimation of the tail characteristics of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes for earthquake occurring over an arbitrary time interval. We develop several procedures and check points to decrease the scatter of the estimates and to verify their consistency. We test our full procedure on the global Harvard catalog (1977–2006) and on the Fennoscandia catalog (1900–2005). For the global catalog, we obtain the following estimates: \( \hat{M}_{{\rm max} } \)  = 9.53 ± 0.52 and \( \hat{Q}_{10} (0.97) \)  = 9.21 ± 0.20. For Fennoscandia, we obtain \( \hat{M}_{{\rm max} } \)  = 5.76 ± 0.165 and \( \hat{Q}_{10} (0.97) \)  = 5.44 ± 0.073. The estimates of all related parameters for the GEV and GPD, including the most important form parameter, are also provided. We demonstrate again the absence of robustness of the generally accepted parameter characterizing the tail of the magnitude-frequency law, the maximum possible magnitude M max, and study the more stable parameter Q T (q), defined as the q-quantile of the distribution of T-maxima on a future interval of duration T.  相似文献   

9.
The accumulation of data sets of past tsunamis is the most basic but reliable way to prepare for future tsunamis because the frequency of tsunami occurrence and their magnitude can be estimated by historical records of tsunamis. Investigation of tsunami deposits preserved in geological layers is an effective measure to understand ancient tsunamis that occurred before historical records began. However, the areas containing tsunami deposits can be narrower than the area of tsunami inundation, thus resulting in underestimation of the magnitude of past tsunamis. A field survey was conducted after the 2010 Chile tsunami and 2011 Japan tsunami to investigate the chemical properties of the tsunami-inundated soil to examine the applicability of tsunami inundation surveys considering water-soluble salts in soil. The soil and tsunami deposits collected in the tsunami-inundated areas are rich in water-soluble ions (Na+, Mg2+, Cl?, Br? and SO 4 2? ) compared with the samples collected in the non-inundated areas. The analytical result that the ratios of Na+, Mg2+, Br? and SO 4 2? to Cl? are nearly the same in the tsunami deposits and in the tsunami-inundated soil suggests that the deposition of these ions resulting from the tsunami inundation does not depend on whether or not tsunami deposits exist. Discriminant analysis of the tsunami-inundated areas using the ion contents shows the high applicability of these ions to the detection of tsunami inundation during periods when the amount of rainfall is limited. To examine the applicability of this method to palaeotsunamis, the continuous monitoring of water-soluble ions in tsunami-inundated soil is needed as a future study.  相似文献   

10.
The evolution laws of LURR (Loading–Unloading Response Ratio) before strong earthquakes, especially the peak point of LURR, are described in this paper. The results of four methods (experimental, numerical simulation, seismic data analysis and with damage mechanics analysis) lead to a consistent conclusion—the evolution laws of LURR before strong earthquakes are that, at the early stage of the seismic cycle, LURR will fluctuate around 1 and in the late stage, it rises swiftly and to its peak point. At some time after this peak point, a catastrophic event or events occur. These do not occur at the peak point, but lag behind. The lag time which is denoted by T 2 depends on the magnitude M of the upcoming earthquake among other factors. In order to consider the influence of geophysical parameters in a specific region such as $ \dot{\gamma }, $ E a and J (t), where $ \dot{\gamma } $ is the shear strain rate of tectonic loading in situ, E a is the sum of radiated energy of all earthquake occurring in a specific region measured during a long time duration (110 years in this paper) divided by the area of the region and the time duration, and J (t) is a parameter denoting the LURR anomaly area weighted with Y (the value of LURR) and represents the expanse and degree of the seismogenic zone. The dimensional analysis method has been used to reveal the relation between M, T 2 and other parameters in situ for more reliable earthquake prediction.  相似文献   

11.
Changes in the chemical composition of the hot springs of Mendeleev Volcano (Kunashir Island) as for Cl?, SO 4 2? , CO2, NH 4 + and Cl?/SO 4 2? are given in function of the 1965–66 and 1973 (in part) seismic activity in the South Kurile islands.  相似文献   

12.
In the hours following the 2011 Honshu event, and as part of tsunami warning procedures at the Laboratoire de Géophysique in Papeete, Tahiti, the seismic source of the event was analyzed using a number of real-time procedures. The ultra-long period mantle magnitude algorithm suggests a static moment of 4.1 × 1029 dyn cm, not significantly different from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) value obtained by W-phase inversion. The slowness parameter, $\Uptheta = -5.65, $ is slightly deficient, but characteristic of other large subduction events such as Nias (2005) or Peru (2001); it remains significantly larger than for slow earthquakes such as Sumatra (2004) or Mentawai (2010). Similarly, the duration of high-frequency (2–4 Hz) P waves in relation to seismic moment or estimated energy, fails to document any slowness in the seismic source. These results were confirmed in the ensuing weeks by the analysis of the lowest-frequency spheroidal modes of the Earth. A dataset of 117 fits for eight modes (including the gravest one, 0 S 2, and the breathing mode, 0 S 0) yields a remarkably flat spectrum, with an average moment of 3.5 × 1029 dyn cm (*/1.07). This behavior of the Tohoku earthquake explains the generally successful real-time modeling of its teleseismic tsunami, based on available seismic source scaling laws. On the other hand, it confirms the dichotomy, among mega-quakes (M 0 > 1029 dyn cm) between regular events (Nias, 2005; Chile, 2010; Sendai, 2011) and slow ones (Chile, 1960; Alaska, 1964; Sumatra, 2004; and probably Rat Island, 1965), whose origin remains unexplained.  相似文献   

13.
We expand on the empirical Green’s function deconvolution method of Ide et al. (2011) to estimate radiated energy for the six largest earthquakes worldwide over the last 10 years: 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-Oki, 2004 M w 9.1 Sumatra, 2010 M w 8.8 Maule, 2005 M w 8.7 Nias, 2007 M w 8.5 Bengkulu, and 2012 M w 8.6 off-Sumatra. Deconvolution of P, SV and SH components gives consistent energy results that are comparable to estimates found independently by other researchers. Apparent stress for the five great thrust earthquakes is between 0.4 and 0.8 MPa, while the 2012 off-Sumatra strike-slip earthquake has a higher apparent stress of 3 MPa, which is consistent with other studies that find a tendency for strike-slip events to be more energetic. Our results are within the spread of apparent stress from the wider global earthquake population over a large magnitude range. The azimuthal distribution of energy in each case shows signs of directivity, and in some cases, shows less energy radiated in the trench-ward direction, which may suggest enhanced tsunami potential. We find that eGfs as small as ~M 6.5 can be used for teleseismic deconvolution, and that an eGf-mainshock magnitude difference of 1.5 units yields stable results. This implies that M 8 is the minimum mainshock size for which teleseismic eGf deconvolution will work well. We propose that a database of eGf events could be used to calculate radiated energy and apparent stress of great, hazardous events in near real time, i.e., promptly enough that it could contribute to rapid response measures.  相似文献   

14.
Dew samples were collected between October 2007 and February 2008 from a suburban site in Agra. pH, conductivity, major inorganic ions (F?, Cl?, NO 3 ? , SO 4 2? , Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, and NH 4 + ), and some trace metals (Cr, Sn, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Mn, Fe, Si, Al, V, and Cu) were determined to study the chemistry of dew water. The mean pH was 7.3, and the samples exhibited high ionic concentrations. Dew chemistry suggested both natural and anthropogenic influences, with acidity being neutralized by atmospheric ammonia and soil constituents. Ion deposition flux varied from 0.25 to 3.0?neq?m?2?s?1, with maximum values for Ca2+ followed by NH 4 + , Mg2+, SO 4 2? , Cl?, NO 3 ? , Na+, K+, and F?. Concentrations of trace metals varied from 0.13 to 48?μg?l?1 with maximum concentrations of Si and minimum concentration of Cd. Correlation analysis suggested their contributions from both crustal and anthropogenic sources.  相似文献   

15.
The repeat times,T, of strong shallow mainshocks in fourteen seismogenic sources along the western coast of South and Central America have been determined and used in an attempt at long-term forecasting. The following relation was determined: $$\log T = 0.22M_{\min } + 0.21M_p + a$$ between the repeat time,T, and the magnitudes,M min, of the minimum mainshock considered andM p , of the preceding mainshock. No dependence of the magnitude,M f , of the following mainshock on the preceding intervent time,T, was found. These results support the idea that the time-predictable model is valid for this region. This is an interesting property for earthquake prediction since it provides the ability to predict the time of occurrence of the next strong earthquake. A strong negative dependence ofM f onM p was found, indicating that a large mainshock is followed by a smaller magnitude one, andvice versa. The probability for the occurrence of the expected strong mainshocks (M s ≥7.5) in each of the fourteen seismogenic sources during the next 10 years (1992–2002) is estimated, adopting a lognormal distribution for earthquake interevent times. High probabilities (P 10>0.80) have been calculated for the seismogenic sources of Oaxaca, Chiapas and Southern Peru.  相似文献   

16.
In the strip limestone mine in Guiding county, Guizhou Province the shear and frictionin situ tests of rock body were made for the three typical inclined weak bands C 3 1 /C 3 1 , C 3 1 /C 2 2 and C 2 2 /C 2 1 . The tests were made according to the second scheme of cuneate sample of the standards on rock mechanics test of Water Conservancy and Electricity Ministry. The changes of the resistivity in the weak band and the acoustic speed across the weak band were measured in the same time. The apparent resistivity data, obtained for 8 samples on 27 measure lines in 38 cycle tests, show that the apparent resistivity changes have rather obvious characters as follows: 1. At shear and friction stage, the change of the apparent resistivity accelerates after the yield point, and reaches the maximum of change rate and change amplitude near fracture point (except the lines with resistivity invariant); 2. On the same sample, the resistivity changes are different on the various lines and related to the location settled the lines, there are some “sensitive” location; 3. At the stage of preloading normal stress before shearing, the resistivity decreases on most lines, but on a few lines the resistivity does not changes; 4. After unloading shear stress, the resistivity could not recover completely and the hysteresis of resistiviity takes place on a few lines.  相似文献   

17.
The effect of location errors in the performance of seismicity-based forecasting methods was studied here using one particular binary forecast technique, the Pattern Informatics (PI) technique (Rundle et al., Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 99, 2514–2521, 2002; Tiampo et al., Pure Appl Geophys 159, 2429–2467, 2002). The Southern Californian dataset was used to generate a series of perturbed catalogs by adding different levels of noise to epicenter locations. The PI technique was applied to these perturbed datasets to perform retrospective forecasts that were evaluated by means of skill scores, commonly used in atmospheric sciences. These results were then compared to the effectiveness obtained from the original dataset. Isolated instances of decline of the PI performance were observed due to the nature of the skill scores themselves, but no clear trend of degradation was identified. Dependence on the total number of events in a catalog also was studied, with no systematic degradation in the performance of the PI for catalogs with events in the cases studied. These results suggest that the stability of the PI method is due to the invariance of the clustering patterns identified by the TM metric (Thirumalai and Mountain, Phys Rev A 39, 3563–3573, 1989) when applied to seismicity.  相似文献   

18.
The Ligurian coast, located at the French–Italian border, is densely populated as well as a touristic area. It is also a location where earthquakes and underwater landslides are recurrent. The nature of the local tsunamigenesis is therefore a legitimate question, because no tsunami warning system can resolve tsunami arrival times of a few minutes, which is the case for the area. As far as the seismicity of the area is concerned, the frequent recurrent earthquakes are generally of moderate magnitude: most of them are lower than M w 5. However, the relatively large M w 6.9 earthquake (Larroque et al., in Geophys J Int, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) that occurred on the February 23, 1887, offshore of Imperia (Italian Riviera) is quite emblematic. This unusual event for the region merits a complete study: the quantification of its rupture mechanism is essential (1) to understand the regional active deformation, but also (2) to evaluate its tsunamigenesis potential by deriving relevant rupture scenarios obtained from our knowledge of the event; for that purpose the event is extensively described here. The first point has been the subject of quite a few studies based on the seismotectonics of the area. The last documented approach has been completed by Larroque et al. (Geophys J Int, 2012. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05498.x) who proposed a rupture scenario involving a reverse faulting along a north dipping fault and favoring a M w 6.9 magnitude. In the present paper (1) we study the accuracy of their solutions in relation to the computational grid spacing and the dispersive/nondispersive parameterization, (2) based on an uncertainty on the recorded wave amplitude of the Genoa tide gauge they used, we propose a M w 6.7 earthquake magnitude solution for the event (the kinematics is unchanged), co-existing with the M w 6.9, (3) we evaluate the tsunami coastal impact of the 1887 event, and (4) we test a range of possible ruptures that local faults may undergo in order to propose a synoptic mapping of the tsunami threat in the area. The spatial distribution of the maximum wave height (MWH) is provided with a tentative identification of the processes that are responsible for it. This latter issue is imperative in order to make our mapping as generic as possible in the framework of our deterministic approach (based on realistic scenarios and not on ensemble statistics). The predictions suggest that the wave impact is mostly local, considering the relatively moderate size of the rupture planes. Although the present-day seismicity in this region is moderate, stronger earthquakes (M > 6.5) have occurred in the past. The studied scenarios show that for such events specific localities along the French–Italian Riviera may experience very significant MWH related to the shallow focal depth tested for such scenarios. We may reasonably conclude that the tsunami threat is relatively significant and uniform at the Italian side of the Riviera (from Ventimiglia to Imperia), while it is more localized (sporadic) at the French side from Antibes to Menton with, however, higher local level of inundation, e.g., Nice city center.  相似文献   

19.
In the present study, a digital waveform dataset of 216 local earthquakes recorded by the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) was used to estimate the attenuation of seismic wave energy in the greater Cairo region. The quality factor and the frequency dependence for Coda waves and S-waves were estimated and clarified. The Coda waves (Q c) and S-waves (Q d) quality factor were estimated by applying the single scattering model and Coda Normalization method, respectively, to bandpass-filtered seismograms of frequency bands centering at 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24?Hz. Lapse time dependence was also studied for the area, with the Coda waves analyzed through four lapse time windows (10, 20, 30 and 40?s). The average quality factor as function of frequency is found to be Q c?=?35?±?9f 0.9±0.02 and Q d?=?10?±?2f 0.9±0.02 for Coda and S-waves, respectively. This behavior is usually correlated with the degree of tectonic complexity and the presence of heterogeneities at several scales. The variation of Q c with frequency and lapse time shows that the lithosphere becomes more homogeneous with depth. In fact, by using the Coda Normalization method we obtained low Q d values as expected for a heterogeneous and active zone. The intrinsic quality factor (Q i ?1 ) was separated from the scattering quality factor (Q s ?1 ) by applying the Multiple Lapse Time Domain Window Analysis (MLTWA) method under the assumption of multiple isotropic scattering with uniform distribution of scatters. The obtained results suggest that the contribution of the intrinsic attenuation (Q i ?1 ) prevails on the scattering attenuation (Q s ?1 ) at frequencies higher than 3?Hz.  相似文献   

20.
The use of submersed macrophyte tissue δ 15N to quantify the level of WWTP effluent use in a highly urbanized and agricultural river was evaluated using several methods. Macrophytes, NH4 + and NO3 ? were collected by canoe along two 10 km reaches of river, upstream and downstream of two major municipal WWTPs over 3 years. NH4 + decreased in concentration while δ 15N–NH4 + increased as a function of distance downstream of both WWTPs, changing in one survey from 13 to 31 ‰ over 1 km. This increase is attributed to the combined effects of volatilization, nitrification and uptake. While NO 3 ? concentrations increased downstream of the WWTP over one of the survey reaches, δ 15N–NO 3 ? showed no prominent trend with distance at either. Macrophyte tissue δ 15N increased with distance downstream of both WWTPs, with a slope not significantly different from that of δ 15N–NH4 + suggesting that macrophytes incorporate effluent NH4 + as their main N source in those areas. However, mixing models suggest that towards the end of the reach, where source separation is distinct, macrophytes may utilize background NO 3 ? . Our study indicates the difficulty of deriving precise estimates of effluent use by macrophytes in a system where the δ 15N of the effluent changes rapidly. It also illustrates the utility of macrophytes in describing those changes where the effluent is too attenuated to allow for direct isotopic analysis.  相似文献   

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