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1.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):368-375
Thanks to the Montreal Protocol, the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting chlorine and bromine have been declining since their peak in the late 1990s. Global ozone has responded: The substantial ozone decline observed since the 1960s ended in the late 1990s. Since then, ozone levels have remained low, but have not declined further. Now general ozone increases and a slow recovery of the ozone layer is expected. The clearest signs of increasing ozone, so far, are seen in the upper stratosphere and for total ozone columns above Antarctica in spring. These two regions had also seen the largest ozone depletions in the past. Total column ozone at most latitudes, however, does not show clear increases yet. This is not unexpected, because the removal of chlorine and bromine from the stratosphere is three to four times slower than their previous increase. Detecting significant increases in total column ozone, therefore, will require much more time than the detection of its previous decline. The search is complicated by variations in ozone that are not caused by declining chlorine or bromine, but are due, e.g., to transport changes in the global Brewer–Dobson circulation. Also, very accurate observations are necessary to detect the expected small increases. Nevertheless, observations and model simulations indicate that the stratosphere is on the path to ozone recovery. This recovery process will take many decades. As chlorine and bromine decline, other factors will become more important. These include climate change and its effects on stratospheric temperatures, changes in the Brewer–Dobson circulation (both due to increasing CO2), increasing emissions of trace gases like N2O, CH4, possibly large future increases of short-lived substances (like CCl2H2) from both natural and anthropogenic sources, and changes in tropospheric ozone.  相似文献   

2.
全球变化条件下的平流层大气长期变化趋势   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
两个因素将对21世纪平流层气候变化产生重要作用。一个是温室气体增加,另一个是平流层臭氧的可能恢复。温室气体增加的辐射效应一方面造成地面和对流层变暖,另一方面却导致平流层变冷,而臭氧层恢复的辐射效应则导致平流层变暖。在温室气体增加和臭氧恢复这两种相反因素作用下的平流层温度如何变化是所关心的主要问题。为了预估平流层温度在21世纪的变化,使用了辐射—对流模式进行了敏感性实验,另外,也对他人进行的化学—气候耦合模式（CCM）模拟结果进行了分析。这些模拟结果表明,在21世纪平流层中上层（60～1 hPa）将变冷,而下层（150～60 hPa）变暖。这说明在平流层中上层温室气体的冷却效应将起主导作用,而臭氧恢复的加热效应在平流层下层相对更为重要。CCM的模拟结果表明,臭氧恢复最显著的区域在平流层上层（3 hPa附近）,与最大降温区一致,说明温室气体增加将有利于平流层上层臭氧恢复。CCM的模拟结果还表明,平流层两极地区在冬半年存在变暖的现象。根据已有的研究结果,极区变暖与平流层行星波活动增强有关,动力、热力和化学之间的正反馈作用也有可能对极区变暖有重要的贡献。  相似文献   

3.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):403-409
The stratospheric ozone layer is expected to recover as a result of the regulations of the Montreal Protocol on chlorine and bromine containing ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Model simulations project a return of global annually averaged total column ozone to 1980 levels before the middle of the 21st century, well before the ODSs will return to 1980 levels. This earlier ozone return date is due to the effects of rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. GHGs influence ozone directly by chemical reactions, but also indirectly by changing stratospheric temperature and the Brewer–Dobson circulation. Based on projections of chemistry–climate models, this article summarizes the effects of GHGs on stratospheric and total column ozone in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere, Arctic and Antarctic spring, and the tropics. The sensitivity of future ozone change to the GHG scenario is discussed, as well as the specific role of a future increase in nitrous oxide and methane.  相似文献   

4.
Ozone trends in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere over the Indian region are investigated using three satellite data sets namely Halogen Occultation Experiment (1993–2005), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (1993–2005) II, and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2005–2011). Estimated ozone trends using multi-variate regression analysis are compared with trends at two Indian ozonesonde stations (Delhi, 28°N, 77°E and Pune, 18°N, 73°E), and a 3-D Chemical Transport Model (CTM, SLIMCAT) for the 1993–2005 time period. Overall, all the observational data sets and model simulations indicate significant increasing trend in the upper troposphere (0–2.5 %/year). In the lower stratosphere, estimated trends are slightly positive up to 30 mb and are negative between 30 and 10 mb. Increasing trends in the upper troposphere is probably due to increasing trends in the tropospheric ozone precursor gases (e.g. CO, NO x , NMHCs). Here, we argue that these contrasting ozone-trend profiles might be partially responsible for insignificant long-term trends in the tropical total column ozone. On seasonal scale, positive trends are observed during all the seasons in the upper troposphere while structure of trend profile varies in lower stratosphere. Seasonal variations of ozone trends and its linkages with stratospheric intrusions and increasing trends in lightning flashes in the troposphere are also discussed.  相似文献   

5.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):442-447
The Montreal Protocol has controlled the production and consumption of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) since its signing in 1987. The levels of most of these ODSs are now declining in the atmosphere, and there are now initial signs that ozone levels are increasing in the stratosphere. Scientific challenges remain for the Montreal Protocol. The science community projected large ozone losses if ODSs continued to increase, and that ozone levels would increase if ODSs were controlled and their levels declined. Scientists remain accountable for these projections, while they continue to refine their scientific basis. The science community remains vigilant for emerging threats to the ozone layer and seeks scientific evidence that demonstrates compliance with Montreal Protocol. As ODSs decrease, the largest impact on stratospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century will be increases in greenhouse gases. The associated climate forcings, and the human responses to these forcings, represent major uncertainties for the future of the stratospheric ozone layer.  相似文献   

6.
Chemical compositions of volcanic gases of several Japanese active volcanoes have been monitored from distant safe places since the beginning of the 1990s using an FT-IR spectral radiometer. For absorption measurements, an infrared light source behind volcanic gas emissions is necessary in a volcanic environment. In the early observations, infrared radiation from hot lava domes (Unzen volcano) and hot ground heated by high-temperature fumaroles (Usu, Aso, and Satsuma-Iwojima volcanoes) were used as infrared light sources. However, these sources were not available in many cases. This remote FT-IR method became more commonly applied to chemical monitoring of volcanic gases emitted from the summit or slopes of active volcanoes using scattered solar infrared light as infrared light sources (Sakurajima, Miyakejima, and Asama volcanoes). To date, eight species have been measured using this method: SO2, HCl, HF, CO, CO2, COS, SiF4, and H2O. The observations indicate that volcanic gases for each volcano have different chemical composition on a SO2–HCl–HF ternary diagram in spite of similar tectonic settings, suggesting that vapor/melt volume ratios during volcanic gas formation differ among volcanoes. During more than 15 years of monitoring, chemical changes in volcanic gases attributable to ascent of magma were observed only at Asama, where HCl/SO2 and HF/HCl ratios in the eruptive period were higher than those in non-eruptive period because of scrubbing of more soluble components in surface hydrothermal systems in the non-eruptive stage or solubility-controlled fractionation processes. Results show that these parameters are the most prospective ones among the various parameters measured using the remote FT-IR method to monitor volcanic activities.  相似文献   

7.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):347-353
After the well-reported record loss of Arctic stratospheric ozone of up to 38% in the winter 2010–2011, further large depletion of 27% occurred in the winter 2015–2016. Record low winter polar vortex temperatures, below the threshold for ice polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation, persisted for one month in January 2016. This is the first observation of such an event and resulted in unprecedented dehydration/denitrification of the polar vortex. Although chemistry–climate models (CCMs) generally predict further cooling of the lower stratosphere with the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), significant differences are found between model results indicating relatively large uncertainties in the predictions. The link between stratospheric temperature and ozone loss is well understood and the observed relationship is well captured by chemical transport models (CTMs). However, the strong dynamical variability in the Arctic means that large ozone depletion events like those of 2010–2011 and 2015–2016 may still occur until the concentrations of ozone-depleting substances return to their 1960 values. It is thus likely that the stratospheric ozone recovery, currently anticipated for the mid-2030s, might be significantly delayed. Most important in order to predict the future evolution of Arctic ozone and to reduce the uncertainty of the timing for its recovery is to ensure continuation of high-quality ground-based and satellite ozone observations with special focus on monitoring the annual ozone loss during the Arctic winter.  相似文献   

8.
Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea–ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147–154.  相似文献   

9.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):354-367
In the 1980s, ground-based monitoring of the ozone layer played a key role in the discovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole as well as in the first documentation of significant winter and spring long-term downward trends in the populated mid-latitude regions. The article summarizes the close-to-hundred-year-long history of ground-based measurements of stratospheric ozone, and more recent observations of constituents that influence its equilibrium. Ozone observations began long before the recognition of the impact of increasing emissions of manmade ozone-depleting substances on ozone and therefore on UV levels, human health, ecosystems and the Earth climate. The historical ozone observations prior to 1980s are used as a reference for the assessments of the state of the ozone layer linked to the enforcement of the Montreal Protocol. In this paper, we describe the worldwide monitoring networks and their ozone observations used to determine long-term trends with an accuracy of a few percent per decade. Since 1989, the ground-based monitoring activities have provided support for the amendments of the Montreal Protocol (MP). They include monitoring of (a) the ozone total column and the vertical distribution at global scale, (b) the ozone-depleting substances (ODS) related to the MP such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and their decomposition products in the stratosphere, and (c) the atmospheric species playing a role in ozone depletion, e.g., nitrogen oxides, water vapor, aerosols, polar stratospheric clouds. We highlight important accomplishments in the atmospheric monitoring performed by the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW) run under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). We also address the complementary roles of ground-based networks and satellite instruments. High-quality ground-based measurements have been used to evaluate ozone variabilities and long-term trends, assess chemistry climate models, and check the long-term stability of satellite data, including more recently the merged satellite time-series developed for the detection of ozone recovery at global scale, which might be further modified by climate change.  相似文献   

10.
平流层微量气体变化趋势的研究   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  
采用HALOE提供的1992—2005年的资料,分析了平流层几种微量气体（臭氧、HCl,HF,NO,NO2,水汽和甲烷）的混合比在不同高度、不同纬度带的变化趋势, 以期为研究平流层的辐射和化学过程提供一些有用的数据。结果表明,在不同纬度带这些微量气体的变化特征并不相同,在不同高度上他们的变化特征也不大一样。这14年臭氧的变化趋势与其他几种微量气体的变化趋势对比表明,在平流层上层,1990年代中期以后臭氧浓度的恢复比较明显,而且这14年臭氧的变化趋势与HCl、HF和水汽的变化趋势是相反的。在平流层中层臭氧的变化趋势复杂一些,除一些微量成分对它的破坏外,还受到其它因素的影响。但1997—2002年臭氧混合比增大,与HCl、NO,NO2和水汽混合比的减小趋势是相反的,这说明《蒙特利尔条约》及其它环保措施的实施对平流层中层臭氧浓度的恢复也已初见成效。  相似文献   

11.
Daily zenith scattered light intensity observations were carried out in the morning twilight hours using home-made UV-visible spectrometer over the tropical station Pune (18‡31′, 73‡51′) for the years 2000–2003. These observations are obtained in the spectral range 462–498 nm for the solar zenith angles (SZAs) varying from 87‡ to 91.5‡. An algorithm has been developed to retrieve vertical profiles of ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) from ground-based measurements using the Chahine iteration method. This retrieval method has been checked using measured and recalculated slant column densities (SCDs) and they are found to be well matching. O3 and NO2 vertical profiles have been retrieved using a set of their air mass factors (AMFs) and SCDs measured over a range of 87–91.5‡ SZA during the morning. The vertical profiles obtained by this method are compared with Umkehr profiles and ozonesondes and they are found to be in good agreement. The bulk of the column density is found near layer 20–25 km. Daily total column densities (TCDs) of O3 and NO2 along with their stratospheric and tropospheric counterparts are derived using their vertical profiles for the period 2000–2003. The total column, stratospheric column and tropospheric column amounts of both trace gases are found to be maximum in summer and minimum in the winter season. Increasing trend is found in column density of NO2 in stratospheric, tropospheric and surface layers, but no trend is observed in O3 columns for above layers during the period 2000–2003  相似文献   

12.
Two distinctive magmatic fluids were recognized in the Tatun volcanic group (TVG), Taiwan. One is a relatively reduced fluid represented by the fumarolic gases at Hsiao-you-ken (HYK) geothermal field. Another is an oxidized fluid containing high concentrations of HCl represented by the fumarolic gases at Da-you-ken (DYK). An intermediate gas was recognized at Gung-tze-ping (GTP) and She-hung-ping (SHP). The fumarolic gases at HYK and GTP possess the features of so-called primary steam generated on mixing of magmatic gas and meteoric groundwater. The fumarolic gases at DYK are a simple mixture between magmatic gas and water vapor of meteoric origin. The CO2/H2O molar ratio of the magmatic component in the fumarolic gases at DYK was estimated to be 0.018, meanwhile it was estimated to be 0.027 for the fumarolic gases at HYK and GTP, suggesting the magma beneath DYK is depleted in volatiles relative to the magma beneath HYK and GTP. The estimated CO2/H2O ratio for the magmatic component is comparable to that of some active volcanoes in Japan, suggesting the enrichment of volatiles in the magmas beneath TVG.  相似文献   

13.
According to the spectroscopy data on the HCl content analyzed in Peterhof in 2009–2016 and in a number of NDACC stations in the Northern Hemisphere, growth in the HCl content observed since 2007 and caused by changes in the stratospheric circulation stopped in 2010–2011. As follows from the experimental data, a decrease in the HCl content estimated in Peterhof at 4.4 × 1013 cm–2/year or ~1.0%/year started again.  相似文献   

14.
Understanding the source mechanism of earthquakes may be the key to predict earthquakes. The testing of radioactive radiations and reactionary hypothesis of gases before and after quake events can help predict and monitor earthquake occurrence. In this study, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the column ozone (O3) were applied to evaluate the December 26, 2003 earthquake of Bam city in western Iran. The results show that ozone concentration (column density) decreased about 30 DU and or 807?×?10E15/cm2 molecules. Using high-resolution AIRS data for the study area, we were able to discriminate gases that formed and changed before the main shock at least a day before the occurrence of the quake in Bam.  相似文献   

15.
Uptake of trace gases by (stratospheric aerosol can be significant particularly after large injections of volcanic sulphur. A theoretical scheme is presented to quantify the rate at which trace gases diffuse into these aerosol droplets. Rate constants for 19 trace gases are calculated and it is found that the rates vary from a value of 2.85 × 10-7s-1 for CC14 to 8.08 × 10-7s-1 for NO. The calculations are characterised by their ease of application and can be incorporated into stratospheric chemical models.  相似文献   

16.
《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2018,350(7):432-434
NASA has a long and significant history in observations and data analysis research for understanding the short- and long-term changes in ozone in the atmosphere. For nearly 40 years, NASA has overseen satellite observations of stratospheric ozone. These observations have been augmented by ground-based remote sensing, balloon borne, and aircraft observations of ozone and ozone-related species and by continuous observations of ozone depleting substances. Together, they form the evidential basis for understanding ozone changes over these past four decades. Also, NASA has continuously funded laboratory, modeling and data analysis activities to better understand the observations obtained by NASA and other programs. NASA has plans to continue these activities in the future, at a level consistent with available funding, other Earth Science observational priorities, and more importantly, with a goal of ensuring that data exist to understand changes in ozone in the future as the abundances of ozone depleting substances decrease and those of greenhouse gases increase.  相似文献   

17.
Measurements of the stratospheric contents of O3 and NO2 in the Moscow region were used to analyze the anomalies of these species related to the sudden stratospheric warming in the winter and the following deformation of the stratospheric circumpolar vortex in early February 2010 and the latitudinal displacement of the vortex towards the European sector in late March 2011 before the final warming in the spring. In the first case, an increase in the O3 and NO2 contents up to 85% and by two times, respectively, was recorded. In the second case, the O3 content decreased by one-fourth and the NO2 content dropped by two times as compared to the average values for the periods that preceded the beginning of the anomalies.  相似文献   

18.
《Atmósfera》2014,27(2):173-183
In this work, the experiment for performing solar-absorption infrared measurements from the atmospheric observatory of the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) located at the university campus in Mexico City is described. The Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer and solar-tracking system have been operating since June 2010, and from the recorded spectra the total column amounts of several atmospheric gases can be derived. The current study presents the results obtained for methane (CH4), an important pollutant involved in ozone production and a rapidly increasing greenhouse gas. The total column amounts, retrieved with high temporal resolution, present a large dispersion and day-to-day variability. A mean value of 2.88 × 1019 molecules/cm2 (1.829 ppm), with a 95% confidence interval between 2.62 and 3.14 × 1019 molecules/cm2, has been obtained for the period from June 2010 to December 2011. No clear annual cycle can be determined from the monthly means due to the large variability in the measurements, suggesting a significant effect of local emissions on the natural background concentrations. Some days with extraordinary enhancements are presented and a simple back trajectory analysis points to a predominant source direction from the northeast of the measurement site. The methane-contaminated air masses passing over the UNAM atmospheric observatory, however, originate presumably not from one but several dispersed sources. A more detailed analysis with modeling of the dynamics of these air masses is required.  相似文献   

19.
Knowledge of groundwater residence time is important in understanding key issues in the evolution of water quality, whether this occurs due to water–rock interaction or simply by mixing or contamination. The build-up in the atmosphere of the trace gases chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) from the middle of the last century offers a convenient way of dating waters up to ∼60 a old. The gases are well-mixed in the atmosphere so their input functions are not area-specific as is the case with 3H. While any one of these trace gases can in principle provide a groundwater age, when two or more are measured on water samples the potential exists to distinguish between different modes of flow including piston flow, exponential flow and simple end-member mixing. As with all groundwater dating methods, caveats apply. Factors such as recharge temperature and elevation must be reasonably well-constrained. Primarily for SF6, the phenomenon of ‘excess air’ also requires consideration. Primarily for the CFCs, local sources of contamination need to be considered, as do redox conditions. For both SF6 and the CFCs, the nature and thickness of the unsaturated zone need to be factored into residence time calculations. However, as an inexpensive dating method, the trace gases can be applied to a wide range of groundwater problems where traditional age indicators might once have been used more sparingly. Examples include tracing flowlines, detecting small modern inputs in ‘old’ waters, and pollution risk assessment. In the future, with the main CFCs already declining in the atmosphere, new anthropogenic trace gases are likely to take their place.  相似文献   

20.
Characteristics of trace gases (O3, CO, CO2, CH4 and N2O) and aerosols (particle size of 2.5 micron) were studied over the Arabian Sea, equatorial Indian Ocean and southwest part of the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon transition period (October–November, 2004). Flow of pollutants is expected from south and southeast Asia during the monsoonal transition period due to the patterns of wind flow which are different from the monsoon period. This is the first detailed report on aerosols and trace gases during the sampled period as the earlier Bay of Bengal Experiment (BOBMEX), Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) and Indian Ocean Experiments (INDOEX) were during monsoon seasons. The significant observations during the transition period include: (i) low ozone concentration of the order of 5 ppbv around the equator, (ii) high concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O and (iii) variations in PM2.5 of 5–20μg/m3.  相似文献   

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