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1.
International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR). 相似文献
2.
Pacific Island countries are among the list of countries that face the highest disaster risk globally—in per capita terms. In recent years, governments in the region have been confronted by a rise in damages from extreme catastrophic events, many increasingly linked to climate change. These events pose significant challenges to Pacific governments in terms of maintaining fiscal stability and the operation of their limited and under-diversified economies and shallow financial sectors. Governments in the region generally play a leading role in domestic economies and are responsible for leading disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery efforts. Accordingly, measures to improve financial sustainability and the public sector’s ability to provide public services in the aftermath of major disasters must be prioritized. This paper examines the literature on fiscal resilience to disasters, the estimated impacts of major events in the Pacific, and analyses the applicability of available financial instruments to facilitate both ex ante and ex post disaster fiscal risk management in the region. The paper also discusses policies that can improve resilience against fiscal risks.
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3.
While many approaches for assessing earthquake risk exist within the literature and practice, it is the dynamic interrelationships between earthquake hazard, physical risk, and the social conditions of populations that are the focal point for disaster risk reduction. Here, the measurement of vulnerability to earthquakes (i.e., characteristics that create the potential for harm or loss) has become a major focus area. However, metrics aimed at measuring vulnerability to earthquakes suffer from several key limitations. For instance, hazard and community context are often ignored, and attempts to validate metrics are largely non-existent. The purpose of this paper is to produce composite indices of the vulnerability of countries to earthquakes within three topical areas: social vulnerability, economic vulnerability, and recovery potential. To improve upon the status quo in indicators development for measuring vulnerability to seismic events, our starting point was to: (1) define a set of indicators that are context specific to earthquakes as defined by the literature; (2) delineate indicators within categorical areas of vulnerability that are easy to understand and could be put into practical use by DRR practitioners; and (3) propose indicators that are validated using historical earthquake impacts. When mapped, the geographic variations in the differential susceptibility of populations and economies to the adverse effects of damaging earthquake impacts become evident, as does differential ability of countries to recover from them. Drivers of this geographic variation include average country debt, the type and density of infrastructure, poverty, governance, and educational attainment, to name just a few. 相似文献
4.
Small-scale flash flood events are climate-related disasters which can put multiple aspects of the system at risk. The consequences of flash floods in densely populated cities are increasingly becoming problematic around the globe. However, they are largely ignored in disaster impact assessment studies, especially in assessing socioeconomic loss and damage, which can provide a significant insight for disaster risk reduction measures. Using a structured questionnaire survey, this study applied a statistical approach and developed a structural equation model (SEM) for assessing several socioeconomic dimensions including physical impacts, mobility disruption, lifeline facilities, health and income-related impacts. The study reveals that respondents have experienced a stronger impact on direct tangible elements such as household contents and buildings as well as direct intangible elements with β coefficients 0.703, 0.576 and 0.635, respectively, at p?<?0:001 level. The direct intangible impacts affect mobility disruption with β coefficients equal to 0.701 at p?<?0:001 level which then further cause adversity to income-generating activities with β 0.316 at significant p?<?0:001 as well. The overall model fit indices show highly acceptable scores of SRMR 0.068, RMSEA 0.055 and PClose 0.092. Thus, the SEM has successfully incorporated the socioeconomic dimensions of disaster impact and explained the impact phenomena reliably. This modeling approach will allow inclusion of various variables from different disciplines to assess hazard impact, vulnerability and resilience. 相似文献
5.
Understanding the nature and impacts of tsunamis within the Aegean Sea region ofGreece is of importance to both the academic community and those organisationsconcerned with tsunami disaster management. In order to determine hazard and riskand consequently pre-plan mitigative strategies, it is necessary to analyse historical(documentary) and geological records of former tsunami events. Therefore, firstlythis paper provides a summary of the written sources of information on Aegeantsunamis paying particular attention to published catalogues. From the availabledata, it is noted that a large number of events have been reported during the last3500 years. Secondly, the paper provides a review of the published on-shore(terrestrial) geological records of tsunamis within the region. From this analysisit is seen that little geological evidence has been identified for the large numberof tsunamis reported in the catalogues. Thirdly, the paper considers the reliabilityof the written and geological records and how problems of accuracy, coverage,extent and reliability, may have potential implications for the estimation of hazardand risk. The paper concludes by making recommendations for disaster managers,geologists and historians to work closely together. 相似文献
6.
In terms of events that undermine economic growth, the impact of natural disasters is huge and inevitable. Taking the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake as the research object, and based on the country-year data for 181 counties in Sichuan Province from 1999 to 2018, this paper uses the dynamic difference-in-difference method to investigate the indirect impact of this event on the economy. The main findings are as follows: Even though the central government has introduced reconstruction policies and invested a lot of reconstruction funds, in 2018, the per capita income in the extremely and relatively severe disaster areas was still significantly lower than the counterfactual by 21.96% and 7.61%, respectively. There is heterogeneity in the long-term indirect impacts in areas with different disaster levels, and the economies of the extremely severe disaster areas may form a "poverty trap," while the economies of the relatively severe disaster areas are still in a slow recovery state. It was further found that the assistance of central government’s reconstruction funds and the increase in local government expenditure are the reasons for the rapid economic recovery in the short term, and the insufficient level of total demand caused by the investment and consumption is the main reasons for the negative indirect impact on the economy in the disaster areas. 相似文献
7.
The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer. We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue. 相似文献
8.
We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given. 相似文献
9.
Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim. 相似文献
10.
Managing the risks of extreme events such as natural disasters to advance climate change adaptation (CCA) has been a global focus. However, a critical challenge in supporting CCA is to improve its linkage with disaster risk reduction (DRR). Based on discussions on similarities and differences between CCA and DRR concerning their spatial–temporal scales, main focuses, preferred research approaches and methodologies, etc., this paper tentatively put forward an analytical framework of “6W” for linking DRR with CCA. This framework presented preliminary answers to a series of fundamental questions, such as “What is adaptation with respect to disaster risk?” “Why adaptation is needed?” “Who adapt to what?” “How to adapt?” “What are the possible principles to assess the adaptation effect?” To bridge the research gaps between CCA and DRR, it is imperative to associate the adaptation actions with both near-term disaster risk and long-term climate change and formulate adaptation strategies at various spatial–temporal scales by embracing uncertainty in a changing climate. 相似文献
11.
France experiences catastrophic floods on a yearly basis, with significant societal impacts. In this study, we use multiple sources (insurance datasets, scientific articles, satellite data, and grey literature) to (1) analyze modern flood disasters in the PACA Region; (2) discuss the efficiency of French public policy instruments; (3) perform a SWOT analysis of French flood risk governance (FRG); and (4) suggest improvements to the FRG framework. Despite persistent government efforts, the impacts of flood events in the region have not lessened over time. Identical losses in the same locations are observed after repeated catastrophic events. Relative exposure to flooding has increased in France, apparently due to intense urbanization of flood-prone land. We suggest that the French FRG could benefit from the following improvements: (1) regular updates of risk prevention plans and tools; (2) the adoption of a build back better logic; (3) taking undeclared damages into account in flood risk models; (4) better communication between the actors at the different steps of each cycle (preparation, control, organization, etc.); (5) better communication between those responsible for risk prevention, emergency management, and disaster recovery; (6) an approach that extends the risk analysis outside the borders of the drainage basin; and (7) increased participation in FRG from local populations. 相似文献
12.
The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters. 相似文献
13.
Italy has one of the most complete and historically extensive seismic catalogues in the World due to a unique and uninterrupted flow of written sources that have narrated its seismic history since about the end of the Iron Age. Seismic hazard studies have therefore always been mainly based upon this huge mass of data. Nevertheless, the Italian catalogue probably “lacks” many M ≥ 6.5 events, the seismogenetic structures responsible for which are characterized by recurrence times that are longer than the time span covered by our historical sources. For these reasons, and as in other countries, earthquake data that in Italy have been derived from paleoseismological studies should finally become a necessary ingredient in seismic risk assessment. Indeed, over the past 20 years, some hundred trenches have been excavated, supplying reliable and conclusive data on the recent activities of many faults. Through to many robust datings of surface fault events, these studies have provided the ages of several unknown or poorly known M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes. Here, we summarize the state of the art of paleoseismology in Italy, and present a first catalogue of 56 paleoearthquakes (PCI) that occurred mainly in the past 6 kyr. The PCI integrates the historical/instrumental seismic catalogue, and extends it beyond the recurrence time of the seismogenetic faults (2000 ± 1000 yr). We feel confident that the use of the PCI will enhance future probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, and thus contribute to more reliable seismic risk mitigation programs. 相似文献
14.
Under the background of climate warming, the occurrence time, frequency, intensity, and impact of snowmelt flood disasters have changed significantly. Thus, establishing a global snowmelt flood disaster database is particularly important for disaster risk management. With the help of a web crawler, and based on multiple data sources such as natural disaster databases, documents, books, government agency websites, and news media, this study collected relevant information of snowmelt floods and mixed floods and established standards for identifying snowmelt flood events and their disaster impacts based on data from the different sources. Following the screening, sorting, fusion, and integration of snowmelt flood events, a global snowmelt flood disaster dataset containing 579 pieces of data with strong pertinence and reliability was constructed. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of global snowmelt flood disasters from 1900 to 2020 were preliminarily analyzed. The results showed that the snowmelt floods were mainly distributed between 30° N and 60° N, with more mixed floods south of 50° N and more snowmelt floods north of 50° N. Spring was the period of highest incidence of snowmelt flood disasters, followed by winter, summer, and autumn, respectively. The snowmelt floods that occurred in spring, autumn, and winter were mainly at 40°~50° N, and the snowmelt floods that occurred in summer were mainly at 30°~40° N. Compared with the snowmelt floods, the mixed floods were more frequent and more destructive, and their frequency increased with climate warming. The results provide a scientific basis for risk prevention and loss assessment of global snowmelt flood disasters. © 2022 Science Press (China). 相似文献
15.
Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis. 相似文献
16.
Taken into account that the natural hazard risk is a contingent liability and, therefore, a sovereign risk for national governments, it is important to assess properly the potential losses to design a suitable risk reduction, retention and transfer strategy. In this article, a disaster risk assessment methodology is proposed based on two approaches: on the one hand, the empiric estimation of losses, using information available from local disaster databases, allowing estimating losses due to small-scale events and, on the other hand, probabilistic evaluations to estimate losses for greater or even catastrophic events, for which information usually is not available due to the lack of historical data. A “hybrid” loss exceedance curve is thus determined, which combines the results of these two approaches and represents the disaster risk in a proper and complete way. This curve merges two components: the corresponding to small and moderate losses, calculated using an inductive and retrospective analysis, and the corresponding to extreme losses, calculated using a deductive and prospective analysis. Applications of this risk assessment technique are given in this article for eleven countries. 相似文献
17.
Tsunamic events are a frequent hazard to coastal towns. Despite this, the extent to which resilience models can be applied to coastal towns as well as the aspects that should be considered when doing so have not been fully evaluated. There is little information regarding the specific indicators that allow cities to better cope and adapt to the impacts of tsunamis, and this information is especially scarce for developing countries such as Chile. The main objective of this study is to develop a resilience model to explore the extent to which local characteristics influence the resilience of Chilean coastal communities to tsunami hazards. Accordingly, this study presents the Coastal Community Resilience model (The CORE model) for exploring the adaptive capacity of coastal areas affected by tsunamis. This model was then applied to fourteen coastal villages, distributed within four towns, three communes, and two regions of Chile. Data comprising 21 indicators that address the physical, environmental, and social resilience aspects of the villages were obtained on-site and from governmental and municipality databases; these data were then subjected to multivariate analysis in order to determine which indicators most and least affect resilience and whether indicators affect resilience positively or negatively. Variation in resilience among the villages was explained by similarities and differences in the administrative-political, urban, rural, and indigenous characteristics of the study areas. In addition to these results, we discuss land use planning considerations to build community resilience, and we provide insight into the utility of the resilience model proposed here. Overall, our findings shed light on gaps in planning policies and opportunities for planning coastal resilient communities, particularly for those where data of explicit indicators are scarce like in Chile and other developing countries. 相似文献
18.
How societies organize themselves to respond to cascading impacts exacerbated by climate change will help define the future of disaster planning, mitigation, response, and recovery. Current emergency management risk analyses focus on identifying a broad array of threats and hazards that may affect an area. However, there is limited attention and understanding of the totality of hazard impacts, the relationship of consequences across disasters, and the dangers of not addressing critical capabilities necessary to rapidly managing consequences—including the potential to create new incidents within incidents. Through a focused review of the related literature and guiding policy documents, this study aims to provide a cascading consequence-based framework that can support emergency managers in the analysis of their jurisdictional risks, development of emergency operations plans, and decision-making. Results include the identification of an alternative framework to identify cascading networks, the creation of a supplementary model for downstream risk assessment, and refined Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Analysis (THIRA) outputs for improved grant allocation. The proposed framework has the potential to help organizations factor both conspicuous and downstream consequences into their Emergency Operations Plans in the planning and mitigations phases. This proposed refinement, which looks deeper into the progression of a disaster, has both national and international implications. 相似文献
19.
China is a country prone to high frequency of natural catastrophic events. According to the natural disaster data from 1900 to 2011, the major disaster types include drought, earthquake, epidemic, extreme temperature, flood, mass movement wet and storm. The occurrence of natural disaster and economic loss is increased during the studied period. However, the death toll induced by natural disaster is decreased significantly. A new frame of social development and natural disaster is proposed to discuss the impact of population and GDP on the influence of disaster through the recording and reduction efforts. The results indicated that economic development contributes to the reduction in the impact of natural disaster on the people lives and society. New comprehensive integrated management, including international cooperation, should be established. 相似文献
20.
This research appraises how residential built environment growth influences coastal exposure and how this component of societal vulnerability contributes to tropical cyclone impact and disaster potential. Historical housing unit data and future demographic projections from a high-resolution, spatial allocation model illustrate that the area within 50 km of the US Atlantic and Gulf Coastlines has the greatest housing unit density of any physiographic region in the USA, with residential development in this region outpacing non-coastal areas. Tropical cyclone exposure for six at-risk metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are assessed. All six MSAs evaluated are distinct in their development character, yet all experienced significant growth from 1940 through the contemporary period; projections from the model under various socioeconomic pathways reveal that this growth is anticipated to continue during the twenty-first century. Using a worst-case scenario framework, the historical and future residential data for the six MSAs are intersected with synthetic hurricane wind swaths generated from contemporary landfalling events. The New York City MSA contains the greatest residential built environment exposure, but Miami is the most rapidly changing MSA and has the greatest potential for hurricane disaster occurrence based on the juxtaposition of climatological risk and exposure. A disaster potential metric illustrates that all six MSAs will experience significant increases in disaster probability during the twenty-first century. This analysis facilitates a detailed spatiotemporal assessment of US coastal region vulnerability, providing decision makers with information that may be used to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone disasters, mitigate tropical cyclone hazard impacts, and build community resilience for these and other hazards in the face of environmental and societal change. 相似文献
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