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1.
In this paper, we introduce the gray correlation method of risk evaluation in meteorological disaster losses based on historical disaster data in China (mainland) and apply the improved gray relational analysis model (the triangular gray relational model) to the risk evaluation of rainstorm and flood disaster losses. In addition, we divide the risk grade standards of rainstorm and flood disaster losses according to 186 rainstorm and flood disaster data of four optimization indexes (disaster area, suffered population, collapsed houses, and direct economic losses), evaluate the extent of dynamic rainstorm and flood disaster losses in 31 provinces of China (Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan exclusive) comprehensively, and draw China’s zoning map of rainstorm and flood disaster from 2004 to 2009. The method provides reasonable and effective references for national disaster preventions which can be used in other researches focused on risk evaluation of meteorological disaster losses. 相似文献
2.
基于自然灾害风险原理,结合青海省气象数据、地理信息数据、社会经济数据,并利用主成分分析法、GIS自然断点法对青海省暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度、承载体易损度评估模型以及暴雨洪涝灾害风险度进行评估,结果表明：青海省不同强度降水日数均呈增多趋势,新世纪以来中雨日数及强降水日数增加趋势尤为明显;暴雨洪涝灾害致灾因子危险度呈由东南向西北降低的趋势,承载体易损度为东北部地区最高,南部以及西部地区最低;暴雨洪涝风险较高的地区主要集中在东部地区,互助、湟中、大通、西宁为高风险区,东部大部地区、环青海湖地区为较高风险区,西部地区为低风险区。该评估结果可以在气象灾害风险管理业务中进行应用,可以加强对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响程度及影响区域的判定,为地方防灾减灾救灾工作提供科学依据。 相似文献
3.
Natural Hazards - Effective management of rainstorm risk is essential for reducing regional rainstorm disaster risks and losses. In this paper, we discussed the influencing factors of urban... 相似文献
4.
吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
利用吉林省50县市1951-2013年逐日降水资料、暴雨灾情损失数据,1：5万DEM数据、水系、TM遥感卫星影像资料以及GDP、人口等数据,探讨了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险的主要影响因素,确立了各因素的权重系数,构建了吉林省重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险评估模型.利用过程预报降雨量对2013年8月14-17日的重大暴雨过程灾害损失风险进行了预评估.结果表明：重大暴雨过程灾害损失综合风险的高值区分布在四平、辽源大部以及长春、吉林、通化城区附近,风险偏高区位于中南部,西部地区和东北部地区为中低风险区.灾害损失风险评估模型预评估效果良好,可在实际的暴雨过程灾害损失风险预评估业务中使用,由于通过该模型的评估结果可迅速圈定各级洪涝风险区,对提高重大暴雨过程应对能力、减少灾害损失以及防灾减灾意义重大. 相似文献
5.
Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in China, causing heavy losses for people’s lives and property and reducing the capability of sustainable development of the national and local economy. In this study, the risks of the rainstorm and flood disasters are assessed for the Chinese mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and also employ the historical data of seven indicators, including the affected area of crops, the affected population, the direct economic loss, and etc., from 2004 to 2009. Based on the large 1,302 historical sample data, the impact of rainstorm and flood disasters were analyzed using the methodology of gray fixed weight cluster analysis according to disaster losses, which were divided into the three gray classes of high, medium, and low. The regional differences of the risk assessment of the rainstorm and flood disasters are discussed, and the dynamical risk zoning map is conducted. The results show a consistent conclusion with the actual losses of rainstorm and flood disasters over each administrative district, which can provide more scientific evidence for the relevant departments of disaster prevention and mitigation. 相似文献
6.
1980—2019年新疆南部不同强度暴雨洪水灾害的空间分布和时间变化特征 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
以1980—2019年新疆南部出现的暴雨洪水灾害事件造成的死亡人数、倒塌房屋数、倒塌棚圈数、牲畜死亡数、受灾面积作为灾情要素,采用比值权重法和无量纲化线性求和,构建了暴雨洪水灾害事件的灾损指数。根据灾损指数,采用百分位数法将每次暴雨洪水灾害事件定量划分为一般、较重、严重、特重四个等级。结果表明：新疆南部暴雨洪水事件在塔里木盆地北缘多于南缘,西部多于东部,高值区集中在阿克苏地区、喀什地区、克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州一带;暴雨洪水事件多发在3—10月,年出现次数呈现明显上升趋势,增幅为8次·（10a）-1,主要表现为一般性灾害发生频次的增加;新疆南部暴雨洪水灾害年平均灾损指数在1985年和1999年发生两次突变,平均值表现出“低—高—低”阶段性变化;暴雨洪水灾害发生次数与3—10月降水量、大雨发生日数、暴雨发生日数密切相关。近40年来新疆南部降水量的增多,导致暴雨洪水灾害次数增加;年平均灾损指数与特重和严重灾害发生次数关系密切,后者对其贡献率达87%。 相似文献
7.
With the acceleration of urbanisation in China, preventing and reducing the economic losses and casualties caused by urban rainstorm waterlogging disasters have become a critical and difficult issue that the government is concerned about. As urban storms are sudden, clustered, continuous, and cause huge economic losses, it is difficult to conduct emergency management. Developing a more scientific method for real-time disaster identification will help prevent losses over time. Examining social media big data is a feasible method for obtaining on-site disaster data and carrying out disaster risk assessments. This paper presents a real-time identification method for urban-storm disasters using Weibo data. Taking the June 2016 heavy rainstorm in Nanjing as an example, the obtained Weibo data are divided into eight parts for the training data set and two parts for the testing data set. It then performs text pre-processing using the Jieba segmentation module for word segmentation. Then, the term frequency–inverse document frequency method is used to calculate the feature items weights and extract the features. Hashing algorithms are introduced for processing high-dimensional sparse vector matrices. Finally, the naive Bayes, support vector machine, and random forest text classification algorithms are used to train the model, and a test set sample is introduced for testing the model to select the optimal classification algorithm. The experiments showed that the naive Bayes algorithm had the highest macro-average accuracy. 相似文献
8.
Exposure assessment of rainstorm waterlogging on old-style residences in Shanghai based on scenario simulation 总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3
Waterlogging is one of the most serious hazards in China. Old-style residences in cities are prone to be damaged by waterlogging
hazards. This paper describes our exposure assessment of old-style residences in Shanghai during rainstorm waterlogging. Two
rainstorm scenarios of 20-year and 50-year return periods were simulated with the rainstorm simulation model from Shanghai
Flood Risk Information Center. Each old-style residence was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation
depth of that residence. An exposure assessment model was then built to integrate three ranks of exposure in order to reflect
the total exposure features of a district and to compare disaster situation among different districts. Our research results
reveal that Hongkou District and Huangpu District are the regions most necessary for the government to carry out safety defense
in old-style residences, while rainstorms bring little effect on old-style residences in the districts of Putuo, Luwan, Changning,
Zhabei, and Jing’an. These results provide important information for Shanghai Municipal Government to improve waterlogging
management, and the method of exposure assessment can also be applied in other cities to provide guidance regarding flood
risk control. 相似文献
9.
区域性暴雨事件由于影响范围大、持续时间长,更易引发严重洪涝灾害,对经济社会可持续发展构成严重威胁。因此,预估区域性暴雨事件的未来变化对于气候变化适应和灾害风险管理意义重大。本文基于区域气候模式RegCM4对4个全球气候模式的动力降尺度模拟,利用“追踪式”客观识别方法,对我国区域性暴雨进行了识别,并从发生频次、持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度5个方面预估了其在RCP4.5情景下的未来变化。多模式预估结果表明,我国平均区域性暴雨事件的发生频次、持续时间、平均降水量、平均影响范围和综合强度到21世纪末均呈不同程度的上升趋势。与1986—2005年相比,无论在21世纪中期(2046—2065年)还是末期(2080—2099年),位于“低值区”的事件出现频率减少,而位于“高值区”的事件出现频率增加。轻度区域性暴雨事件发生频次将减少,而中度、重度和严重的区域性暴雨事件发生频次将增加。在空间分布上,区域性暴雨事件的发生频次、持续时间和降水量均在我国东部区域大范围增加,并且三者增幅的空间分布型态较为一致。增加最显著的区域主要位于长江中下游、江南和华南地区,而且到21世纪末期的增加幅度大于中期。 相似文献
10.
编制适用于不同历时的综合暴雨公式是协调城市管网排水与区域防洪治涝的重要基础。选用上海市代表雨量站徐家汇站65 a实测雨量资料,建立不同重现期暴雨强度与历时关系,解析暴雨衰减规律,编制单一重现期暴雨公式,结合雨力公式推求适用不同重现期的长历时综合暴雨公式,并推导出暴雨重现期公式。结果表明:不同重现期1~24 h历时暴雨强度均以0.74的衰减指数衰减,据此推求的长历时综合暴雨公式可计算1~24 h任意历时、2~100 a任意重现期的设计暴雨,且平均相对和平均绝对均方根误差分别为1.9%和0.009 mm/min,符合规范要求;暴雨重现期公式可估算1~24 h历时内任意场次暴雨的重现期,高效地服务于城市洪涝防治决策。成果已纳入上海市治涝地方标准,对其他城市具有参考价值。 相似文献
11.
全球气候变化对暴雨洪涝等极端天气事件的发生产生了显著影响,识别气候变化背景下暴雨事件的时空变化特征是暴雨洪涝灾害综合应对的关键.以淮河流域为研究区,基于流域内229个气象站点1950-2012年的实测逐小时降水数据,遵循淮河流域实际情况对暴雨事件进行场次划分,并以此作为基础统计单元,借助地理信息系统平台,运用统计学方法并结合气象学理论,以场次暴雨事件开始时间、达到雨强峰值历时、场次平均暴雨历时及暴雨事件发生频次4个指标分析不同年代背景下淮河流域场次暴雨事件发生的过程变化及时空演变特征.结果表明：在气候变化的背景下,场次暴雨发生时间呈现宽幅化和极值化的变化趋势,暴雨发生时间出现了后移和双峰化的特征;暴雨历时及到达雨强峰值历时均呈现增加趋势,整个流域场次暴雨事件在1990s-2000s进入一个增加时期;全球性的气候变化使流域内暴雨事件发生的频次不断增加,历时不断增大,长历时高频次特征明显,尤其是近20 a来,淮河流域暴雨事件高发区域呈现出从流域部分地区向全流域扩张的趋势. 相似文献
12.
The influence of rainstorm pattern on shallow landslide 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
Tung-Lin Tsai 《Environmental Geology》2008,53(7):1563-1569
In this study, the influence of the rainstorm pattern on shallow landslide is examined. The physically-based shallow landslide
model is used to conduct this examination with considering four representative rainstorm patterns including uniform, advanced,
central, and delayed rainstorms. The results show that in spite of the rainfall duration and the rainfall pattern, the rainstorm
with less than the minimum landslide-triggering rainfall amount will not trigger landslide. However, for the rainstorm with
greater than the minimum landslide-triggering rainfall amount, the occurrence of landslide significantly depends not only
on the rainfall duration but also on the rainfall pattern. Among the four representative rainstorm patterns, the delayed rainstorm
has the greatest rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence, followed by the central rainstorm, and then the uniform
rainstorm. In addition, for each rainstorm pattern, the corresponding rainfall duration threshold for landslide occurrence
decreases with the increase of rainfall amount, and seems to be constant for large rainfall amount. 相似文献
13.
Natural Hazards - At present, researches on urban short-duration rainstorm patterns mainly focus on single-peak rainstorm patterns, and rarely involve double-peak rainstorm patterns, or convert... 相似文献
14.
流域区间的治涝方案以及排涝设施的规模都与区间暴雨和外江洪水位的遭遇息息相关,因此需要研究区间暴雨与外江洪水位遭遇的风险规律.采用copula函数建立区间暴雨和外江洪水位的联合分布,用联合概率密度来描述两者遭遇的机率,提出了以遭遇为设计组合的排涝风险率和重现期的分析方法.实例研究表明,copula函数能够较好地模拟广东省阳山县区间暴雨与外江洪水位的联合分布;联合概率密度曲线表现为明显的正偏态分布,对于不超过10年一遇的暴雨,遭遇同频率的外江水位的机率最大;但对10年一遇以上的暴雨,最大遭遇机率的外江水位的重现期低于暴雨重现期;对任一排涝重现期,则有成反相关的区间最大暴雨和外江洪水位重现期的多种组合方案,且任一组合方案的暴雨重现期都大于排涝重现期. 相似文献
15.
Risk analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on residences in Shanghai based on scenario simulation 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Yong Shi 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):677-689
Due to special geographical location and climate, the waterlogging has always been one of the most serious hazards in Shanghai. Residences in the inner city are prone to be damaged by waterlogging hazards. This paper describes the risk analysis of rainstorm waterlogging on residences in Shanghai. First, a rainstorm scenario of 50-year return period was simulated with the rainstorm simulation model from Shanghai Flood Risk Information Center. Each residence was ranked according to its degree of exposure indicated by the inundation depth of that residence, and an exposure analysis model was then built. It is found from the exposure analysis that residences in the sub-districts like Linfen Road, Pengpu Village, Gonghe New Village, Hongqiao Road, Xianxia Road, Xinhua Road, and Zhenru Town are at high-exposure level. Whereas residences in other sub-districts like Gaojing Town, Siping Road, Huaihai Road, Yuyuan, Waitan, Caojiadu, Nanjing East Road, etc. are at low-exposure level. Second, given the characteristics of residences in waterlogging, the vulnerability of residences was expressed as the proportion of old-style residences to total residences. The results show that residences in Yuyuan, Xiaodongmen, Waitan, Nanjing East Road, Laoximen, Zhapu Road, North Station, and Tilanqiao are the most vulnerable ones, while there is no vulnerability in Fenglin Road, Kongjiang Road, Liangcheng New Village, Quyang Road, Siping Road, and Xianxia Road due to the absence of old-style residences. Finally, a model has been built from a systematic perspective and then waterlogging risk analysis was quantified by multiplying the exposure value with vulnerability value of residences. The results reveal that Laoximen, Tilanqiao, Dinghai Road, North Station, Tianping Road, Hongmei Road, Hunan Road, and Xiaodongmen are at high-risk level. The systemic risk model is a simple tool that can be used to assess the relative risk of waterlogging in different regions and the results of risk analysis are applicable to prevention and mitigation of waterlogging for Shanghai Municipal Government. 相似文献
16.
A series of empirical studies involving typhoon rainstorm and flood risk scenario analysis were carried out on a medium spatial scale, covering Pingyang County. Considering a rainstorm/water-logging conversion process, active flooding submergence and per unit area values (million yuan/km2), two typical risk scenarios (50- and 100-year frequency) were simulated and analyzed. The study revealed that high-risk areas distributed across the towns of Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang, with a maximum submerged depth of 4.61 m for a 100-year flood hazard. In the case of a disaster loss rate >65 %, the potential maximum loss could be more than 10 million yuan/km2. For medium-scale disaster risk, more attention must be paid to catastrophic events, which have a low probability of occurrence but would induce great losses. An amended risk formula could determine the degree of priority for responses to hazards of equal risk value better. In Pingyang County, the 50-year flood risk for Kunyang, Aojiang, Qiancang and Xiaojiang is greater than that of 100-year events for the next 50 years. However, these areas should give priority to their responses to 100-year disaster events during the next 100 years. In addition, the attention of disaster risk should vary in different spatial regions. 相似文献
17.
四川省暴雨过程综合评估模型的研究及建立 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用1961-2013年四川省156个国家级气象观测站的逐日降水资料,按照暴雨过程的识别标准,统计得到851次暴雨过程。选取了4项适用于四川省天气气候特征的暴雨过程评价指标,依据历史重现期划分出各指标的等级标准,并利用欧氏距离函数建立了暴雨过程等级评估模型。为能全面反映整个暴雨过程的强度,构建了一个物理意义清晰的暴雨过程综合强度评估模型。该模型客观地考虑了4项指标的权重及其自身变率,对暴雨过程的描述更加科学。通过对历史暴雨过程进行评估分析,发现评估结果与历史灾害事件的记载在时间和强度上具有较好的一致性,评估效果理想,可满足四川省暴雨天气过程定量评估业务的需求。 相似文献
18.
牛眠沟研究区位于2008-05-12汶川大地震线性震源的南端,受强烈地震力作用,区内山体遭受严重破坏,发生多处滑坡和泥石流灾害。根据已建立的暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测概念模型,暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测可视为判断滑坡形成的地质环境和确定触发滑坡的降雨特征。查明研究区地质环境及灾害特征,确定了产生滑坡、泥石流的必要地质环境因子,以数字滑坡技术获取这些因子数据,代入模型,即可评价研究区各处、各沟谷发生滑坡、泥石流的危险程度;与相似地质环境及气候条件进行类比,确定研究区触发滑坡、泥石流的降雨特征及降雨量阈值后,最终建立暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测模型。据此模型进行研究区暴雨滑坡、泥石流预测,实地验证表明滑坡、泥石流发生位置的准确率>90%。 相似文献
19.
This paper deals with the problem of the estimation of rainstorm floods disaster. Based on the relevant historical disaster data of Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China (2005–2010), the initial disaster data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China (Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan excluded) are processed into evaluation indices values. And then, the incidence degrees of disaster data are calculated. The disaster situation of rainstorm floods disaster for each region in mainland China from 2004 to 2009 is estimated by applied the grey incidence decision model of the dynamic multiple attribute. Simultaneously, the comprehensive quantitative assessment of the rainstorm and flood disaster of each region in mainland China nearly 6 years is conducted. According to the assessment results of 2004–2009 torrential rain and flood disaster in Chinese mainland, the level division of disaster loss is investigated. And the disaster loss of mainland China’s 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is divided into five levels in which the national flood disaster situation zoning maps are constructed. The results demonstrate that the evaluation method of rainstorm floods disaster is practical and effective. 相似文献
20.
基于二维运动波模型,建立了一个适用于小流域场次降雨产汇流过程的动力学模型。通过对典型小流域内不同区域(坡顶、坡中及坡底区域及距离流域出口的远近)种植植被时产流过程的数值模拟,分析了小流域内植被分布对产流过程的影响。结果表明:植被分布及其特性对小流域场次降雨产流有较明显的影响;下游区域种植植被的减水效果和延滞洪峰作用优于上游区域,陡坡区域减水效果优于缓坡区域,且郁闭度越大,这种差别越明显;在该研究条件下,下游区的减水效果可达到上游区的3倍;30%郁闭度条件下减水效果可达10%和20%郁闭度条件下的3倍和1.4倍。 相似文献