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1.
Extremely cold weather has an important influence on winter production and life in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. This paper uses the daily minimum temperature data of ground observation stations during extreme cold weather from 1974 to 2021 in the Greater Khingan Mountains region, monthly circulation index data, the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperature were analyzed by climate statistical method; The abrupt changes and periods of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperature were tested by Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis; calculating the recurrence period of extreme minimum temperature by empirical frequency method; correlation method was used to analyze the circulation factors which had significant influence on the number of extremely cold days. The results are followed: (1) The spatial distribution of extreme cold days in the Greater Khingan Mountains region was not uniform, and gradually decreasing from northwest to south. The extreme cold days was at most 717 d in Huzhong, and at least 29 d in Gagadaki, the extreme cold days in the whole region mutated in 1979, and the average annual extreme cold days decreased 14.2 d after the mutation compared with that before the mutation, and the annual extremely cold days have a significant cycle of 2 to 4 years. (2) The extreme minimum temperature in the whole region mutated in 1990, before the mutation the extreme minimum temperature was low and after the mutation began to rise, the significant cycle of annual extreme minimum temperature was 4 to 5 years, the extreme lowest temperature was -49.6 ℃ in Mohe, followed by -49.2 ℃ in Huzhong; the extreme lowest temperature occurs once every 2 years, once every 5 years and once every 10 years in Huzhong, while the extreme lowest temperature occurs once in 20 years, once in 50 years and once in 100 years in Mohe. (3) SCAND teleconnection patterm has a good correlation with extreme cold days in winter(January, February and December)in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. Positive growth of the circulation mode, it has great influence on the extreme cold weather in winter in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. © 2022 Science Press (China).  相似文献   

2.
Zheng, J., Ding, L., Hao, Z. & Ge, Q. 2012 (January): Extreme cold winter events in southern China during AD 1650–2000. Boreas, Vol. 41, pp. 1–12. 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2011.00225.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. We defined extreme cold winter events as those with occurrence probabilities lower than the 10th percentile of the probability density function, based on observed winter temperatures in southern China since 1951. Subsequently, we constructed impact severity levels using documentary evidence for those events during 1951–2000, considering three indexes for the freezing of rivers/lakes, widespread snow/ice storms, and cold damage to subtropical/tropical crops. Using these criteria we identified 50 extreme cold winters for the period AD 1650–1949 based on ～4000 pieces of comparable information extracted from local gazettes in southern China, after verification using data from three weather stations with long records. It was found that the frequencies of the extreme cold winter events since 1650 varied over time. The most frequent occurrences were found during AD 1650–1699 and in the first and second halves of the 19th century, with frequencies twice as high as in the second half of the 20th century. In contrast, the frequencies of extreme winters during the 18th century were close to that in the second half of the 20th century. High frequencies of extreme cold winters in AD 1650–1720 and AD 1795–1835 occurred during the sunspot Maunder and Dalton Minima. The intensities of some historical cold events, such as those during 1653–1654, 1670, 1690, 1861, 1892 and 1929, exceeded those of the coldest winter events since 1951.  相似文献   

3.
青海省冬季气温变化成因及其预测方法探讨   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
利用青海省1961-2012年冬季气温观测资料、美国环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)月平均高度场再分析资料、国家气候中心和美国国家海洋局和大气管理局提供的126项环流指数, 探讨青海冬季气温变化特征及成因. 结果表明: 1961-2012年青海冬季气温呈显著上升趋势并具明显的年代际变化特征, 于1986年出现由冷向暖的明显转折; 西伯利亚高压、东亚冬季风是影响青海冬季气温的主要系统. 当冬季北半球500 hPa高度场出现欧亚(EU)遥相关型时, 青海冬季易于偏冷, 同时发现大西洋欧洲区极涡强度和赤道太平洋海域海温与东亚冬季风的强弱有密切关系. 采用主成分回归集成方法初步建立青海冬季气温预测模型, 经历史回报检验其距平符号一致率为87%, 具备一定预报技巧和能力.  相似文献   

4.
关于平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的研究进展   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  
人们传统上认为大气平流层很少能对对流层产生重要影响,但是,最近几年的观测研究表明这种自上而下的影响是显著的和非常重要的,特别地,近几年关于北极涛动的研究极大推动了这一问题的研究进展。这方面的研究发现平流层异常可以对对流层天气系统产生重要影响,也就是冬季平流层北极涛动（AO）的负异常可以诱发中高纬度地区寒潮天气,而AO的正异常则导致中高纬度地区的温暖晴朗天气。由于观测分析表明平流层AO的异常信号总是领先对流层AO异常,一些学者甚至建议冬季北半球平流层的异常信号可以作为预报对流层天气变化的先行指标,并可以把对流层天气预报的时限提高到3个星期以上。综述这一领域在最近几年的研究进展、阐述平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的物理机制和总结各种不同的学术观点,并对将来研究中应注意的问题提出了建议。  相似文献   

5.
Millennial-scale variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) remain elusive due to sparse and controversial reconstructions. By compiling a variety of alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) estimates, we find that the west-east SST gradient in the southern South China Sea (SCS) well documents the temporal dynamics of the winter “cold tongue” off the southern Vietnam and by inference, variations in the EAWM intensity over the past 26 ka. Our results reveal that the winter “cold tongue” SSTs were significantly colder during Heinrich event 1 and the Younger Dryas event, resulting in an increased west-east SST gradient in the southern SCS due to a strengthened EAWM. Within dating uncertainties, an intensified EAWM during cold stadials was coeval with the shutdown or a reduction in strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), exhibiting a strong linkage between the AMOC and the EAWM system. The west-east SST gradient also indicates an enhanced EAWM during the early Holocene, which may be induced by postglacial ice-sheet dynamics and a strong seasonal contrast in solar insolation. Our findings suggest that the EAWM was probably modulated by a complex interplay between the AMOC, solar insolation and ice-sheet dynamics on sub-orbital time scales.  相似文献   

6.
气候变暖背景下,极端寒冷事件仍有发生且常伴随严重的经济、社会影响,需要更为深入的研究。1929—1930年极端冷冬事件作为增暖背景下的极端冷事件,对其研究相对缺乏。通过收集并分析民国时期的气象器测资料和报刊资料,对1929—1930年中国极端冷冬事件进行探讨。结果表明: (1)本次冷冬的空间范围包括华北地区、长江流域(重庆至入海口段)和北疆地区,西北地区可能存在冷冬;寒冷的核心时段为1929年12月到次年1月。(2)本次冷冬时空范围内的地区月平均气温极端性强,华北、长江流域的12月份均温都超过十年一遇的冷事件水平,长江流域、北疆地区的1月份均温均超过五十年一遇水平;但月最低气温的极端性较弱,大部分站点月的最低温达到五年一遇水平,部分站点月超过十年一遇水平。(3)本次冷冬至少经历了7次区域性或全国性的降温事件,其中有3次降温事件达到全国性寒潮事件标准,时段分别为12月1—5日、12月16—20日和1月1—5日;其中第1次和第3次是影响中国的典型中路寒潮路径,第2次降温过程的时空特征不显著。(4)综合本次冷冬前旱后涝气候特点、该时段内ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)指数的变化以及前人对ENSO和中国气候变异的关系研究,推测1920s末到1930s初期的气象灾害很大程度受影响于ENSO事件。  相似文献   

7.
华北地区大气降水稳定同位素特征与水汽来源   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
选取华北地区的包头,石家庄,天津,太原IAEA/WMO/GNIP大气降水的氢氧同位素组成的资料,分析了华北地区降水稳定同位素的时空分布特征及其影响因素.研究表明:华北地区降水中的δ18O值都表现出明显的“夏高冬低”的季风气候特征,夏季表现雨量效应,冬季温度效应明显;华北各地区降水线方程与全国及全球降水线相比,斜率和截距都偏小,揭示了华北地区降水是在非瑞利条件下进行的,并且除天津外,其他地区稳定同位素特征还受到降水过程中局地水汽循环的影响;d值总体表现出冬高夏低的季节变化特征,说明了冬季风和夏季风期间降水的水源区蒸发条件不同.  相似文献   

8.
东南极中山站-昆仑站断面最高和最低气温变化特征   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  
利用中山站-昆仑站断面自动气象站2 m气温和同期再分析资料分析了南极沿海到内陆高原的最高和最低气温的变化特征, 并通过个例讨论了气温出现极端过程的天气背景. 结果表明: 南极中山站-昆仑站断面最高和最低气温季节变化趋势基本相似, 年际变化不明显. 最高气温标准偏差大于最低气温, 冬季气温标准偏差明显大于夏季, 且夏季气温变化幅度远小于冬季. 随海拔的增加, 最高气温年较差逐渐增大, 最低气温年变化的无芯率(气温没有明显的最小值程度)呈增大趋势, 夏季气温变化幅度逐渐增大, 冬季气温变化幅度的区域性差异不明显; 2005年7月25-31日的极端降温过程主要受到极涡、地面冷高压及下降风的共同影响.  相似文献   

9.
Based on long-term PM2.5 data observed at high temporal and spatial resolution, the relationships between PM2.5, primary emission, and weather factors in China during four seasons were examined using statistical analysis. The results reveal that primary emission plays a decisive role in the spatial distribution and seasonal variability of PM2.5, except in western China, where PM2.5 is controlled by dust weather. In addition to the accumulation of primary emissions, unfavorable meteorological conditions for the diffusion of air pollution lead to the occurrence of PM2.5 pollution. The significant dynamic factors affecting PM2.5 concentration are surface wind speed, planet boundary layer height, and ventilation coefficient, especially in winter. The ventilation coefficient is inversely correlated with PM2.5. Better ventilation is more favorable for the dilution and outflow of local PM2.5. However, in spring and autumn, ventilation coefficient and PM2.5 are positively correlated over the southern regions with low emission, indicating that ventilation also affects the inflow of PM2.5 from outside the region. Wind shear, 850 hPa divergence, and vertical velocity have insignificant effects on the long-term variations in PM2.5. The significant thermal factor is 850 hPa temperature in winter, except in the Pearl River Delta and Xinjiang regions. In spring, the influence of each thermal factor is weak. In summer, the influences of temperature and humidity are more significant than in spring. In autumn, the influence of humidity is relatively obvious, compared with other thermal factors. The correlation coefficients between multi-factors regressed and observed PM2.5 concentrations pass the 95% confidence test, and are higher than that of single-factor regression over most regions. The observed data from December 2016 to February 2017 were chosen to test the regression equation. The test result reveals that the regression equation is effective for predicting PM2.5 concentrations over regions with high primary emission.  相似文献   

10.
刘美娇  李颖  孙美平 《冰川冻土》2020,42(3):801-811
寒潮是我国北方地区冬、 春、 秋季节常见气象灾害之一, 产生的危害严重影响社会经济发展和人们生产生活。河西走廊生态环境脆弱且处于寒潮影响的重要区域, 揭示河西走廊寒潮频次时空变化特征可以为农牧业防灾减灾提供参考。基于1961 - 2018年河西走廊12个气象站逐日最低气温数据, 采用数据统计和空间可视化表达方法, 分析近60 a河西走廊寒潮频次时空变化特征, 并探讨北极涛动（AO）异常与寒潮频次的响应关系。结果表明： 从时间上看, 河西走廊的寒潮主要发生在10月至4月, 其中11月、 12月、 4月为寒潮高发时期, 近60 a河西走廊寒潮频次呈现出下降的趋势, 其中在20世纪80年代出现明显的低值, 下降趋势在季节上表现为秋季>春季>冬季; 河西走廊寒潮发生频次具有显著的空间差异, 其中西部地区最多, 东部地区居中, 中部地区最少; 北极涛动（AO）强弱与河西走廊寒潮频次变化具有时空响应关系, 当AO处于负相位时, 河西走廊各气象站寒潮发生频次较多, 并且在河西走廊东部和西部表现的较为明显。  相似文献   

11.
A 16-yr (1985–2000) time series of calanoid copepod (Acartia tonsa andEurytemora affinis) abundance in the upper Chesapeake Bay was examined for links to winter weather variability. A synthesis of sea level pressure data revealed ten dominant, winter weather patterns. Weather patterns differed in frequency of occurrence as well as associated precipitation and temperature. The two dominant copepod species responded differently to winter weather variability.A. tonsa abundance showed little response to winter weather and did not vary in abundance during wet or dry springs.E affinis responded strongly to winter weather patterns that produced springs with high freshwater discharge and low salinities. During wet springs,E. affinis abundance increased overall and its area of dominance extended further down estuary. The different response of the two species is likely related to several factors including residence time, development time, salinity tolerance, food limitation, and life history strategy. Important fish species that rely on zo oplankton as food resources were also related to winter weather variability and spring zooplankton abundance.Morone saxatilis (striped bass) andAnchoa mitchilli (bay anchovy) juvenile indices were positively and negatively correlated toE. affinis abundance, respectively. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A02BY003 00004  相似文献   

12.
The winter–spring transition is a dynamic time within the glacier system, because it marks a period of instability as the glacier undergoes a change in state from winter to summer. This period is normally associated with sudden pressure fluctuations resulting in hydrological instabilities within the subglacial drainage system. New data are presented from wireless multi-sensor subglacial probes incorporated within the till at Briksdalsbreen, Norway. Water pressure readings recorded a two-phase winter–spring transition. Event 1 occurred early in the year (December–January) and marked the start of activity within the subglacial environment following the winter. However, this did not result in any permanent changes in subglacial activity and was followed by a period of quiescence. Event 2 occurred later in the year in accordance with changing external weather conditions and the retreat of the snow pack. It was characterized by high-magnitude pressure peaks and diurnal oscillations in connected regions. The variations in sensor trends that followed this event suggested that a transition in the morphology of the subglacial drainage system had occurred in response to these pressure fluctuations. Event 2 also showed some similarities with spring events recorded at valley glaciers in the Alps. A conceptual model is presented associating the form of the winter–spring transition with respect to the location of the probes within connected and unconnected regions of the subglacial drainage system. These data provide further evidence for temporal and spatial heterogeneous subglacial drainage systems and processes. The identification and analysis of subglacial activity during the winter–spring transition can contribute to the interpretation of hydro-mechanical processes occurring within the subglacial environment and their effect on glacier dynamics.  相似文献   

13.
The growth of early rice is often threatened by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperatures during the booting and flowering stage. As a high yield loss due to Grain Buds Cold will lead to increasing insurance premiums, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is crucial to the design of weather index insurance. In this study, we propose a new approach to the estimation of premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance. A 2-year artificial controlled experiment was utilized to develop logarithmic and linear yield loss models. Additionally, incorporating 51 years of meteorological data, an information diffusion model was used to calculate the probability of different durations of Grain Buds Cold, ranging from 3 to 20 days. The results show that the pure premium rates determined by a logarithmic yield loss model exhibit lower risk and greater efficiency than those determined by a linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold weather index insurance were found to fluctuate between 7.085 and 10.151% at the county level in Jiangxi Province, while the premium rates based on the linear yield loss model were higher (ranging from 7.787 to 11.672%). Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment presented below provides a more robust, reliable and accurate way of analyzing the relationship between yield and a single meteorological factor. At the same time, the minimal data requirements of this experimental approach indicate that this method could be very important in regions lacking historical yield and climate data. Estimating weather index insurance accurately will help farmers address extreme cold weather risk under changing climatic conditions.  相似文献   

14.
Temporal and spatial changes of the hydrological cycle are the consequences of climate variations. In addition to changes in surface runoff with possible floods and droughts, climate variations may affect groundwater through alteration of groundwater recharge with consequences for future water management. This study investigates the impact of climate change, according to the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B, A2 and B1, on groundwater recharge in the catchment area of a fissured aquifer in the Black Forest, Germany, which has sparse groundwater data. The study uses a water-balance model considering a conceptual approach for groundwater-surface water exchange. River discharge data are used for model calibration and validation. The results show temporal and spatial changes in groundwater recharge. Groundwater recharge is progressively reduced for summer during the twenty-first century. The annual sum of groundwater recharge is affected negatively for scenarios A1B and A2. On average, groundwater recharge during the twenty-first century is reduced mainly for the lower parts of the valley and increased for the upper parts of the valley and the crests. The reduced storage of water as snow during winter due to projected higher air temperatures causes an important relative increase in rainfall and, therefore, higher groundwater recharge and river discharge.  相似文献   

15.
Spatial and temporal variability of pigments was studied from the CZCS satellite data and fromin situ chlorophyll and transparency for the period 1979-1985. The three Adriatic sites, Northern, Middle, and Southern Adriatic are differently influenced by meteorological, hydrological and oceanographic parameters. The differences between seasonalin situ chlorophyll and remotely sensed pigment concentrations (from CZCS satellite data) from the Adriatic are large in winter. Through the correlation analysis, pigments were compared to meteo-oceanographic and hydrological parameters from different Adriatic sites. The PCA (principal component analysis) was applied to the pigment data series and significant components were compared. Different correlations are obtained for warm and cold periods of the year pointing to seasonal differences in the underlying mechanism of pigment variability. The first PC is influenced mainly by temperature. In the warm period more parameters seem to influence the pigment field, than in the cold period. The pigments in the Adriatic are in good correlation to a number of hydrologic and meteo-oceanographic factors.  相似文献   

16.
Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes were measured in wood cellulose and cellulose-nitrate from trees that grew in different hydrologic settings in southwestern Ontario, Canada. An isotope model that accounts for isotopic fractionations associated with photosynthesis in plants was applied to the stable isotope data to infer past meteoric water isotopic composition and seasonal air moisture variations. The model-inferred climate data was rationalized in terms of the trees' hydrologic environment and weather characteristics of the Great Lakes region. The result is an account of summer and winter conditions in southwestern Ontario for 275 years (1610 to 1885) prior to instrumental climate records. Conditions between 1610 and 1750 are inferred to have been cooler and drier than present. This was followed by a warm-moist climate interval between 1750 and 1885 during which there was an increase in winter precipitation. Cool-dry conditions were recorded instrumentally in this region at the end of the nineteenth century.  相似文献   

17.
We investigated the atmospheric processes and physics that were active during a tsunami-like event hitting Boothbay Harbor area (Maine, USA) on 28 October 2008. The data collected by tide gauges, ground and sounding stations and meteo–ocean buoys in the area were analyzed, together with satellite and radar images. The atmospheric processes were reproduced by the weather research and forecasting model, verified by in situ and remote sensing data. A cold front moved over the area at the time of the event, with embedded convective clouds detected by satellite and radar data and the internal gravity waves (IGWs) detected by radar and reproduced by the model at the rear of the frontal precipitation band. According to the model, the IGWs that passed over Boothbay Harbor generated strong ground air-pressure oscillations reaching 2.5 hPa/3 min. The IGWs were ducted towards the coast without significant dissipation, propagating in a stable near-surface layer capped by an instability at approximately 3.5 km height and satisfying all conditions for their maintenance over larger areas. The intensity, speed and direction of the IGWs were favourable for generation of a meteotsunami wave along the Gulf of Maine shelf. Operational observation systems were not capable of sufficiently capturing the ground disturbance due to a too coarse sampling rate, while the numerical model was found to be a useful tool in eventual future detection and warning systems.  相似文献   

18.
我国寒区输水工程研究进展与展望   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  
何鹏飞  马巍 《冰川冻土》2020,42(1):182-194
由于极端寒冷和其他复杂环境条件, 寒区输水工程容易发生冻害, 威胁其供水能力和安全保障。通过综述寒区输水工程研究的文献和进展, 概括冻害现象、 冻害原因、 研究方法以及防治措施, 提出未来需要研究和应对的问题。寒区输水工程冻害现象主要表现为衬砌破坏, 防渗保温层破坏, 接缝止水材料脱落, 渠道基土流失、 滑塌、 冰塞和漫堤等; 引起冻害的原因主要为冻胀、 冻融循环、 不良地质条件、 不合理施工和管理等; 研究方法方面通常从衬砌优化设计和基土水热力分析展开; 防治措施主要有基土换填, 铺设防渗保温层和排水等。目前研究中的不足主要表现在衬砌受力分析模型过于简化, 对不同防渗保温措施缺乏定量研究, 水热力分析时未考虑输水渠道特殊条件以及缺乏冬季延长输水时间管理的科学方法等问题。  相似文献   

19.
长江三角洲千年冬温序列与古里雅冰芯比较   总被引：9，自引：5，他引：4  
利用长江三角洲史料优势,重建公元820年代以来,年代级冬温序列.为测试古里雅冰芯记录的影响力,与之作比较研究.结果显示:其年代级变化背景有很好的对应关系,年代级变化有大同小异的复杂情况.舍弃量级,就年代级温度,降水升降,约有一半是同步的,且有大致对应的温湿组合.说明两地虽远隔数千公里,环境生态条件悬殊,年代级气候变化仍有响应.最后就形成响应的成因机制作初步分析。  相似文献   

20.
In recent years, measurements of total electron content (TEC) have gained importance with increasing demand for the GPS-based navigation applications in trans-ionospheric communications. To study the variation in ionospheric TEC, we used the data obtained from GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitoring (GISTM) system which is in operation at SVNIT, Surat, India (21.16°N, 72.78°E) located at the northern crest of equatorial anomaly region. The data collected (for the low sunspot activity period from August 2008–December 2009) were used to study the diurnal, monthly, seasonal semi-annual and annual variations of TEC at Surat. It was observed that the diurnal variation at the region reaches its maximum value between 13:00 and 16:00 IST. The monthly average diurnal variations showed that the TEC maximizes during the equinox months followed by the winter months, and are lowest during the summer months. The ionospheric range delay to TEC for the primary GPS signal is 0.162 m per TECU. The diurnal variation in TEC shows a minimum to maximum variation of about 5 to 50 TECU (in current low sunspot activity periods). These TEC values correspond to range delay variations of about 1 to 9 m at Surat. These variations in the range delay will certainly increase in high sunspot activity periods. Detected TEC variations are also closely related to space weather characterizing quantities such as solar wind and geomagnetic activity indices.  相似文献   

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