首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
The precipitation and low-level air temperature in East Asia from a regional climate model (RCM) hindcast for the 22-year period 1979–2000 is evaluated against observational data in preparation for the model use in regional climate change research. Emphasis of the evaluation is placed on the RCM capability in capturing the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation and low-level temperature, especially in conjunction with important climatological events such as, ENSO and East Asian monsoon, at three spatial scales of continental, subcontinental, and river basins.Spatial anomaly correlation time series of geopotential height and temperature show that the simulated upper-air fields remain consistent with the driving large-scale fields, NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R2), throughout the period. The simulated seasonal shifts in 850 hPa winds also agree well with R2 over eastern China and the western Pacific Ocean although the magnitudes of the shifts are overestimated, especially over the eastern slope of the Tibetan Plateau and in northern Manchuria. The simulated precipitation climatology agrees reasonably with that from two analysis datasets based on station- and remote-sensing data. Outstanding characteristics of precipitation including the location of the main rainband, climatological means, and the spatiotemporal variability in association with East Asian Monsoon, ENSO, and extreme events, are well represented in the hindcast. The most notable bias in the simulated precipitation is an overestimation of winter rainfall in southwestern coast of China, near the border with Vietnam. The simulation overestimates the interannual variability of seasonal precipitation especially in southern China, however, the corresponding coefficients of variation agree reasonably with observations except in very dry regions. This suggests that climate sensitivity of scaled precipitation can be useful for projecting climate change signals. The simulated low-level temperature climatology agrees reasonably with observational data as well. The most noticeable biases in the simulated low-level temperature are the warm (cold) biases in southern Siberia (northeastern China) during winter (summer) and the systematic underestimation of low-level temperature in the Tibetan Plateau for all seasons. The daily maximum temperature is underestimated for all seasons by 2−3 K with the largest biases in spring and fall except in the northwestern Mongolia region where it has been overestimated during winter. The daily minimum temperature biases ranges from 0.3 K in spring to 2 K in winter, and are much smaller than those in daily maximum temperature. The evaluation of the multidecadal hindcast shows that model errors mostly confined in the region near the lateral boundaries of the model domain with only minor biases in eastern China. This allows us to be cautiously optimistic about the RCM usefulness for studies of precipitation and low-level temperature changes in East Asia induced by increased emissions of greenhouse gases.  相似文献   

2.
Geothermal observations from a suite of boreholes in western Utah, USA, combined with meteorologic data at nearby weather stations are used to test the hypothesis that temperatures in the earths subsurface contain an accurate record of recent climate change. The change in air temperature over the last hundred years successfully predicts detailed subsurface temperature profiles to better than ±0.05°C, indicating that ground temperatures tract air temperatures over long periods and that climate change signals are conducted into, and recorded in, the solid earth by the process of heat conduction. We combine borehole temperature data with meteorologic data from the nearest weather station to determine the time averaged difference between surface ground temperature and surface air temperature for borehole-weather station pairs and to infer the long term mean air temperature prior to the observational record. For our western Utah sites the preobservational mean temperature is close to the average surface air temperature for this century suggesting that up to 0.5°C of warming deduced from the last 100 years of weather station data may be attributed to recovery from a cool period at the turn of the century.  相似文献   

3.
Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. It is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5° resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m−2 year−1. By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people.  相似文献   

4.
This study describes surface cyclone activity associated with the interannual variability in summer precipitation in northern Eurasia and how that activity may be connected to other climate signals. An east–west seesaw oscillation of precipitation across Siberia is the primary mode of interannual variability in the summer hydrological cycle over northern Eurasia. This variation occurs at sub-decadal timescales of about 6–8 years. The spatial characteristics of cyclone frequency and cyclone tracks at the two poles in variability [eastern Siberia (ES)-wet–western Siberia (WS)-dry and WS-wet–ES-dry] were examined, and temporal variability in regional cyclone frequency was compared to basin-scale precipitation variability. The analysis period was from 1973 to 2002, when the precipitation variability signal was predominant.Cyclone behavior suggested that the regions of enhanced (reduced) cyclone activity coincided with regions of increased (decreased) precipitation in each phase of the oscillation. Such behavior reflects the zonal displacement of the track of frequent storm activity that accompanies the changes in precipitation. Comparisons of the temporal characteristics confirmed the importance of regional cyclone frequency on precipitation variability in both eastern and western Siberia. Low-frequency changes in regional cyclone activity may produce the precipitation oscillation. We used various climate signals to explore connections between regional precipitation and cyclone activity in Siberia. Results suggest that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from the preceding winter is significantly and negatively correlated with summer surface cyclone frequency and precipitation over western Siberia. Enhanced (reduced) summer cyclone activity and precipitation in western Siberia follows low- (high-) winter NAO. However, the physical mechanisms linking summer cyclone activity and precipitation over western Siberia with the preceding climate conditions associated with the winter NAO remain unclear.  相似文献   

5.
An investigation is made of the “white earth” scenario, wherein the positive feedback mechanism, involving temperature, snow/ice cover,and albedo, renders the earth's surface covered with permanent snow freezes the oceans when the solar input is sufficiently low. A three-dimensional energy budget climate model is used to stimulate the earth's response to a 30% decrease in the solar constant. The decrease occurs over a period of 90 years. The model simulates an additional 100 years to allow conditions to stabilize. At the end of the model run, the planetary mean surface temperature is 204.8°K, the oceans are completely frozen over, and the maximum seasonal mean temperature any grid point of the planet is 251.6°K in the western Gobi Desert in JJA. The highest average annual temperature is 238.7°K in western Zaire. A significant portion of the planet's land surface is free of permanent snow cover. The result of this model run suggest that the hydrologic balance may provide a significant negative feedback mechanism to counter the snow/ice-albedo positive feedback mechanism and that the earth's climate may be less sensitive to variations in the solar constant than previously believed.  相似文献   

6.
Today, most land surface process models have prescribed seasonal change of vegetation with regard to the exchange processes between land and the atmosphere. However, in order to consider the real interaction between vegetation and atmosphere and represent it best in a climate model, the vegetation growth process should be included. In other words, “life” should be brought into climate models. In this study, we have coupled the physical and biological components of AVIM (Atmosphere–Vegetation Interaction Model), a land surface model including plant ecophysiological processes, into the IAP/LASG L9 R15 GOALS GCM. To exhibit terrestrial vegetation information, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere, which is 7.5° longitude and 4.5° latitude. The simulated monthly mean surface air temperature and precipitation is close to the observations. The monthly mean Leaf Area Index (LAI) is consistent with the observed data. The global annual mean net primary production (NPP) simulation is also reasonable. The coupled model is stable, providing a good platform for research on two-way interaction between land and atmosphere, and the global terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle.  相似文献   

7.
The anticipated change of climatic conditions within the next decades is thought to have far reaching consequences for agricultural cropping systems. The success of crop production in China, the world's most populous country, will also have effects on the global food supply. More than 30% of the cropping area in China is irrigated producing the major part of the agricultural production. To model the effects of climate change on irrigation requirements for crop production in China a high-resolution (0.25°, monthly time series for temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) gridded climate data set that specifically allows for the effects of topography on climate was integrated with digital soil data in a GIS. Observed long-term trends of monthly means as well as trends of interannual variations were combined for climate scenarios for the year 2030 with average conditions as well as ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenarios.Regional cropping calendars with allowance for multiple cropping systems and the adaptation of the begin and length of the growing season to climatic variations were incorporated in the FAO water balance model to calculate irrigation amounts to obtain maximum yields for the period 1951–1990 and the climate scenarios.During the period 1951–1990 irrigation demand displayed a considerable variation both in temporal and spatial respects. Future scenarios indicate a varied pattern of generally increasing irrigation demand and an enlargement of the subtropical cropping zone rather than a general northward drift of all zones as predicted by GCM models. The effects of interannual variability appear to have likely more impact on future cropping conditions than the anticipated poleward migration of cropping zones.  相似文献   

8.
This paper examines the cloud radiative forcing and its impacts on the surface climate for global climate model simulations that use reduced ozone concentrations and land fractions as boundary conditions. In one simulation using present-day land continents, ozone concentrations are reduced to zero and compared to the present-day climate simulation. In the second set of simulations under global ocean conditions, the implied poleward transport of heat by the ocean is varied. The removal of ozone causes an increase in longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. The increase in longwave forcing melts sea-ice and snow at high latitudes leading 10–14°C warmer temperatures and globally a 2°C increase. The global ocean simulations lead to higher cloud fractions than present-day simulation. Without poleward transport of heat by the ocean, surface temperatures cool as a result of higher cloud fractions. Increasing the ocean heat transport by a factor of 3.33 brings about ice-free conditions. An 11°C difference in globally averaged surface air temperatures is found between the enhanced and zero poleward oceanic heat transport simulations. The longwave cloud radiative forcing from high cloud fractions enhance the surface warming in the polar regions during the winter season. Conversely, during the summer season, a high cloud fraction increases the shortwave cloud radiative forcing producing only moderately warm temperatures in the polar regions. High cloud fractions in polar regions during warm periods throughout geologic times may help to explain the reduced equator to pole temperature gradient.  相似文献   

9.
Michael D Smith 《Icarus》2004,167(1):148-165
We use infrared spectra returned by the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) to retrieve atmospheric and surface temperature, dust and water ice aerosol optical depth, and water vapor column abundance. The data presented here span more than two martian years (Mars Year 24, Ls=104°, 1 March 1999 to Mars Year 26, Ls=180°, 4 May 2003). We present an overview of the seasonal (Ls), latitudinal, and longitudinal dependence of atmospheric quantities during this period, as well as an initial assessment of the interannual variability in the current martian climate. We find that the perihelion season (Ls=180°-360°) is relatively warm, dusty, free of water ice clouds, and shows a relatively high degree of interannual variability in dust optical depth and atmospheric temperature. On the other hand, the aphelion season (Ls=0°-180°) is relatively cool, cloudy, free of dust, and shows a low degree of interannual variability. Water vapor abundance shows a moderate amount of interannual variability at all seasons, but the most in the perihelion season. Much of the small amount of interannual variability that is observed in the aphelion season appears to be caused by perihelion-season planet-encircling dust storms. These dust storms increase albedo through deposition of bright dust on the surface causing cooler daytime surface and atmospheric temperatures well after dust optical depth returns to prestorm values.  相似文献   

10.
The requirement to increase understanding of the complex interaction between society and the environment is well documented. Dramatic evidence of the vulnerability of anthropogenic systems to short-term weather fluctuations abounds. Taking an historical perspective provides an equally impressive picture of the potential upheaval caused by longer term climate changes. However, the past (and present) may not provide an adequate analoque for the future. The greenhouse theory of climate change suggests that the changes in climate regime to be expected from enhanced atmospheric CO2 will be of similar magnitude to the glacial-interglacial mean temperature difference, but will occur in a fraction of the time. Consequently, considerable emphasis is being placed on the role of physical climate models in determining projections of future global and regional temperature and precipitation patterns. The latter climate changes will have important implications for the distribution (in time and space) of water, a principal natural resource and basic requirement for a variety of human activities. Consequently, climate models are being applied to the question of determining the regional hydrologic response to global climate change. The latter objective is a prerequisite to assessing the likely impacts on the water resources sector. This paper reviews current progress in achieving this aim and outlines some future research directions.  相似文献   

11.
In the western United States, more than 79 000 km2 has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land–atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) – RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM – to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (− 1.4 to − 3.1 °C) and maximum (− 2.9 to − 6.1 °C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest.  相似文献   

12.
The possible effects of trace-gas induced climatic changes on Pyramid and Yellowstone Lakes are assessed using a model of lake temperature. The model is driven by years of hourly meteorological data obtained directly from the output of double-CO2 experiments (2 × CO2) conducted with a regional climate model nested in a general circulation model. The regional atmospheric model is the climate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model, MM4.Average annual surface temperature of Pyramid Lake for the 2 × CO2 climate is 15.5 ± 5.4°C (±1 σ), 2.8°C higher than the control. Annual overturn of the lake ceases as a result of these higher temperatures for the 2 × CO2 climate. Evaporation increases from 1400 mm yr−1 in the control to 1595 mm yr−1 in the 2 × CO2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Pyramid Lake basin increases from −6 mm yr−1 in the control to +27 mm yr−1 in the 2 × CO2 simulation due to increased precipitation.For the open water periods, the average annual surface temperature of Yellowstone Lake is 13.2 ± 5.1°C for the 2 × CO2 climate, a temperature 1.6°C higher than the control. The annual duration of ice cover on the lake is 152 days in the 2 × CO2 simulation, a reduction of 44 days relative to the control. Warming of the lake for the 2 × CO2 climate is mostly confined to the near-surface. Simulated spring overturn for the 2 × CO2 climate occurs earlier in the year and fall overturn later than in the control. Evaporation increases from 544 mm yr−1 to 600 mm yr−1 in the 2 × CO2 simulation, but net water supplied to the Yellowstone Lake basin increases from +373 mm yr−1 in the control to +619 mm yr−1 due to increased precipitation. The effects of these climatic changes suggest possible deterioration of water quality and productivity in Pyramid Lake and possible enhancement of productivity in Yellowstone Lake.  相似文献   

13.
Three types of models are frequently applied to problems of present or past climates: (1) the energy balance model (EBM), which can be solved for the mean thermal state of the climate system based only on thermodynamical considerations, (2) the statistical dynamical model (SDM), which includes momentum considerations from which one can solve for climate statistics on a monthly or seasonal time scale including mean poloidal motions and the hydrologic cycle, and (3) the general circulation model (GCM), which can be solved for the evolving daily weather patterns that are then post-processed to yield all the climate statistics in much the same manner as synoptic data are processed. One major drawback of nearly all these models is that they typically do not consider the subsurface vertical heat fluxes (e.g., the effect of deep ocean temperatures and circulation). We present results froman SDM developed in the late 1960's that includes the parameterized effects of subsurface heat fluxes, and then use these results to demonstrate the importance that deep ocean temperatures can have in determining the climatic state. In this SDM, the ratio of the surface short wave absorption to the surface conductive capacity emerges as a quantity that competes with the subsurface (e.g., deep ocean) temperature in determining surface temperatures. For land, the conductive capacity is small and short wave absorption plays an important role; however, for the ocean the conductive capacity is large and the subsurface (deep ocean) temperature is the dominant influence on the surface temperature for the time scale over which the model is valid. This SDM also includes several of the most important features absent in an EBM, namely, an explicit dependence on the intrinsic physical nature of the earth's surface, the mean poloidal motions in the atmosphere that lead to the climate zonation, and a representation of the hydrologic cycle.When deep ocean temperatures in the model are increased to levels suggested by geologic data for the Cretaceous, surface temperatures at mid to high latitudes become much warmer and the circulation of the atmosphere becomes much subdued, especially as indicated by eddy statistics. These results hold for both present-day and Cretaceous land-ocean distributions, indicating that deep ocean temperature, not geography, is the key model boundary condition. The results also agree with interpretations of geologic data, but disagree in part with earlier interpretations of GCM studies of the Cretaceous. Removal of sea ice (with resultant change from a land-like to an ocean surface) accounts for much of the high latitude warming.  相似文献   

14.
A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems from 1982 to 1998. The NASA–CASA model was driven by vegetation properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). For the terrestrial biosphere, predicted net ecosystem production (NEP) flux for atmospheric CO2 has varied widely between an annual source of −0.9 Pg C per year and a sink of +2.1 Pg C per year. The southern hemisphere tropical zones (SHT, between 0° and 30°S) have a major influence over the predicted global trends in interannual variability of NEP. In contrast, the terrestrial NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 on the North American (NA) continent has been fairly consistent between +0.2 and +0.3 Pg C per year, except during relatively cool annual periods when continental NEP fluxes are predicted to total to nearly zero. The predicted NEP sink for atmospheric CO2 over Eurasia (EA) increased notably in the late 1980s and has been fairly consistent between +0.3 and +0.55 Pg C per year since 1988. High correlations can be detected between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and predicted NEP fluxes on the EA continent and for the SHT latitude zones, whereas NEP fluxes for the North American continent as a whole do not correlate strongly with ENSO events over the same time series since 1982. These observations support the hypothesis that regional climate warming has had notable but relatively small-scale impacts on high latitude ecosystem (tundra and boreal) sinks for atmospheric CO2.  相似文献   

15.
We present simulations of the interannual variability of martian global dust storms (GDSs) with a simplified low-order model (LOM) of the general circulation. The simplified model allows one to conduct computationally fast long-term simulations of the martian climate system. The LOM is constructed by Galerkin projection of a 2D (zonally averaged) general circulation model (GCM) onto a truncated set of basis functions. The resulting LOM consists of 12 coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics and dust transport within the Hadley cell. The forcing of the model is described by simplified physics based on Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. The atmosphere and surface are coupled: atmospheric heating depends on the dustiness of the atmosphere, and the surface dust source depends on the strength of the atmospheric winds. Parameters of the model are tuned to fit the output of the NASA AMES GCM and the fit is generally very good.Interannual variability of GDSs is possible in the LOM, but only when stochastic forcing is added to the model. The stochastic forcing could be provided by transient weather systems or some surface process such as redistribution of the sand particles in storm generating zones on the surface. The results are sensitive to the value of the saltation threshold, which hints at a possible feedback between saltation threshold and dust storm activity. According to this hypothesis, erodable material builds up as a result of a local process, whose effect is to lower the saltation threshold until a GDS occurs. The saltation threshold adjusts its value so that dust storms are barely able to occur.  相似文献   

16.
The impacts of dynamic vegetation on interannual and interdecadal variability of Asian summer monsoon in modern (0 kyr) and mid-Holocene (6 kyr) climates are investigated by contrasting simulations with and without dynamic vegetation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model.According to a dynamic index of South Asian summer monsoon, it has been found that the strengths of interannual and interdecadal westerly wind tend not to be affected by the dynamic vegetation over South Asia in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. However, based on a dynamic index of western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon, the strengths of tropical westerly wind and south–north cross-equatorial transport are weakened over the tropical western Pacific in the lower troposphere for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests the impact of dynamic vegetation is more obvious for the WNP monsoon than for the South Asian monsoon. Also, it implies the impact of dynamic vegetation on the interannual and interdecadal circulations is distinctly regional.Singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis shows that the impact of dynamic vegetation can remodel the leading correlation mode (SVD1) between precipitation and surface temperature. All of the interannual and interdecadal precipitation patterns with and without the impact of dynamic vegetation are associated with positive anomalies over India and southeastern China. However, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (keep) the positive interannual temperature anomalies of SVD1 over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce the anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and WNP for 6 kyr. Furthermore, the La Niña-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies always dominate the tropics for 0 kyr and 6 kyr. It suggests La Niña-like SST anomalies are the important mechanism to induce the above-mentioned precipitation pattern no matter whether for 0 kyr or for 6 kyr. For the interdecadal surface temperature pattern of SVD1, the impact of dynamic vegetation tends to enhance (reduce) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 0 kyr, but to reduce (keep) positive anomalies over the midlatitudinal Eurasia (WNP) for 6 kyr. Also, all of the above implies the impact of dynamic vegetation is a mechanism to induce the long-term change of leading interannual and interdecadal surface temperature pattern over the midlatitudinal Eurasia and/or WNP.  相似文献   

17.
Based on the Global Land Cover Characteristics Database (GLCCD) generated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), a new land cover dataset within a domain of 14.1–49.6°N, 84.6–140.5°E is extracted. This dataset is used to identify the achievements of constructing 3N (Northeast, North and Northwest of China) Shelterbelt in North China and to update the lower boundary conditions of the mesoscale model (MM5), a widely used mesoscale meteorological model. The model is then used to simulate the regional climate effects of the 3N Shelterbelt, the largest forestation engineering in the world. The simulation shows that the construction of the 3N Shelterbelt and the corresponding land use and land cover (LULC) variations in China have changed the roughness length in the cited model domain significantly. Consequently, the surface layer wind speed, air temperature, humidity, and the precipitation are all changed. As compared with the control run without the 3N Shelterbelt, the regional climate in North China is improved shown by the decreased wind speed, increased air humidity and precipitation. The paper also stresses that, in meteorological or climatic simulations, the lower boundary conditions related to the land cover has to be updated frequently by the satellite observed database since the LULC vary fast due to the increasing world population and human activities, this is especially true in developing countries like China.  相似文献   

18.
A previous study of Fox [Fox, A.N. 1993. Snowline altitude and climate at present and during the Last Pleistocene Glacial Maximum in the Central Andes (5°–28°S). Ph.D. Thesis. Cornell University.] showed that for a fixed 0 °C isotherm altitude, the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of the Peruvian and Bolivian glaciers from 5 to 20°S can be expressed based on a log–normal expression of local mid-annual rainfall amount (P). In order to extrapolate the function to the whole Andes (10°N to 55°S) a local 0 °C isotherm altitude is introduced. Two applications of this generalised function are presented. One concerns the space evolution of mean inter-annual ELA for three decades (1961–1990) over the whole South American continent. A high-resolution data set (grid data: 10′ for latitude/longitude) of mean monthly air surface temperature and precipitation is used. Mean annual values over the 1961–1990 period were calculated. On each grid element, the mean annual 0 °C isotherm altitude is determined from an altitudinal temperature gradient and mean annual temperature (T) at ground level. The 0 °C isotherm altitude is then associated with the annual precipitation amount to compute the ELA. Using computed ELA and the digital terrain elevation model GTOPO30, we determine the extent of the glacierised area in Andean regions under modern climatic conditions. The other application concerns the ELA time evolution on Zongo Glacier (Bolivia), where inter-annual ELA variations are computed from 1995 to 1999. For both applications, the computed values of ELA are in good agreement with those derived from glacier mass balance measurements.  相似文献   

19.
We have analyzed 17 yr (1982–1998) of net carbon flux predictions from a simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation cover. The NASA-CASA model was driven by vegetation cover properties derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and radiative transfer algorithms that were developed for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We report that although the terrestrial ecosystem sink for atmospheric CO2 for the Eurasian region has been fairly consistent at between 0.3 and 0.6 Pg C per year since 1988, high interannual variability in net ecosystem production (NEP) fluxes can be readily identified at locations across the continent. Ten major areas of highest variability in NEP were detected: eastern Europe, the Iberian Peninsula, the Balkan states, Scandinavia, northern and western Russia, eastern Siberia, Mongolia and western China, and central India. Analysis of climate anomalies over this 17-yr time period suggests that variability in precipitation and surface solar irradiance could be associated with trends in carbon sink fluxes within such regions of high NEP variability.  相似文献   

20.
This study simulates water resources in the Tien Shan alpine basins to forecast how global and regional climate changes would affect river runoff. The model employed annual mean values for the major characteristics of the water cycle: annual air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration and river runoff. The simulation was based on 304 hydro-meteorological stations, 23 precipitation sites, 328 high altitudinal points with glaciological measurements, 123 stream-gauges, and 54 evaporation sites, and it took into account topography. The findings were simulated over Tien Shan relief using a 1:500,000 scale 100 m grid resolution Digital Elevation Model. An applicable GIS-based distributed River Runoff Model was implemented in regional conditions and tested in the Tien Shan basins. The annual evapotranspiration exceeds the river runoff in the Tien Shan watersheds particularly up to 3700 m. Hypothetical climate-change scenarios in the Tien Shan predict that by 2100 river runoff will increase by 1.047 times with an increase in air temperature averaging 3 °C and an increase in precipitation averaging 1.2 times the current levels. Change in precipitation, rather than temperature, is the main parameter determining river runoff in the Tien Shan. The maximum ratio for predicted river runoff could reach up to 2.2 and the minimum is predicted to be 0.55 times current levels. This possibly dramatic change in river runoff indicates on non-linear system response caused mainly by the non-linear response of evapotranspiration from air temperature and precipitation changes. In the frame of forecasted possible climate change scenarios the probability of river runoff growth amounts 83–87% and probability of this decline is 17–13% by 2100 in the Tien Shan River basins.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号