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1.
用证实１９６０年智利大地震存在低频前驱坜的方法处理了国际加速度仪布设台站的１－６ｍＨｚ段的数据，以确定近期２２个大震和巨震的地震矩和矩心时间。这２２个地震包括１９８９年马阔里海岭地震，据报道，该地震有低频前驱震。结果显示，给定断层类型的单破裂大地震的地震矩大致与持续时间的平方成正比，这个关系能很好地拟合这些数据。 相似文献
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巴基斯坦曼塞赫拉7.8级地震对中国大陆大震趋势影响的初步研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
讨论了喜马拉雅弧型地震构造带西反射弧地带(简称“西触角区”),大地震活动的基本特征及2005年10月巴基斯坦曼塞赫拉7.8级地震发生后,对中国大陆地震趋势的可能影响。西触角区(N30~45°,E61~80°)大震活动存在显著的时间上10年左右成组性及两次大震时间间隔小于1个月的爆发性,地点上的成丛性,兴都库什深震区的地震有一定先兆意义,与东触角区(N20~29°,E95~102°)大地震也存在较好的相关性。沿欧亚大陆与印度洋、澳州板块碰撞带上印尼苏门答腊8.9级地震后,再次发生巴基斯坦7.8级大地震,显示出这一板缘地震带正处于活跃状态。研究认为未来1~2年应注意西触角区尤其是天山地震带的大震连发的危险性及东触角区(缅甸及川、滇为主)发生响应性大地震的可能性。对中国大陆内部其他地区大震形势的影响可能不大。 相似文献
3.
地震矩张量反演在地震观测报告中的应用 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
针对我国地震工作的实际需要,从１９９５年起,《中国地震台网目录和地震矩张量解》刊登了国内较大地震和全球大震的地震矩张量解和震源机制解。同时在《中国地震年报》上也刊登国内及邻区较大地震的地震长张量解和震源机制解。为了方便用户使用,本文对有关参数进行了说明。 相似文献
4.
确定影响大地震周期性复发的干扰因素和原因对活动断裂强震危险性评价具有非常重要的意义。文中基于弹性回跳理论,介绍了活动断裂上中强地震活动对大震复发的影响,提出了利用地震矩释放率法和库仑应力改变分别来计算同一断层和周边断层上发生的强震扰动对断层大地震复发的影响时间Δt,并以鲜水河断裂带中-北段为例进行研究。结果表明1904年、1981年道孚段发生的M7.0和M6.9地震导致道孚—乾宁段大地震复发分别延迟约80a和45a;1923年倡促M7.3级和1967年侏倭M6.8级2次强震使得甘孜—炉霍段的大地震复发时间提前约35a。 相似文献
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我国板内大地震之间的一种联系——诱发作用 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
本文讨论了板内大地震之间的诱发作用。以唐山地震等实例分析了与诱发有关的异常地震活动和前兆变化。先发大震可以激发后继大震孕育区内发生一系列中小地震——前兆地震。一个地震带内,先发大地震后,首先发生中小地震的地方是最可能发生后继大震的地区。由先发大震、前兆地震和后继大震构成了AFB诱发链。为研究大范围应力场和大震预报提供一些线索。 相似文献
7.
图象识别是近二十年来发展起来的一门学科,它已广泛应用于许多领域中。盖尔芬德(I.M.Gelfand)、普雷斯(F.Press)等人将它用于地震危险区的划分。本文将图象识别方法用于地震预测中,以识别强震发生的时间。 按一定标准将所研究的全部时间划分为危险时间段D和不危险时间段N。以问题表的形式提出大地震前中等地震活动的特性,然后分两步进行图象识别: 1.学习。对P个时间段m个问题的回答是mp的矩阵,回答以二进制(是或非)表示。通过学习,识别出一个、两个或三个问题组合的新特征,称之为D和N的性质。 2.投票。D和N性质数目的差是△,当△大于或等于某阈值时,则识别为危险段D,否则为N。 结果表明,大地震发生前的一定时期内,中等地震活动增至一定水平、相差半级的中等地震活动水平的比值较正常情况增高以及大震前中等地震活动随时间增强等性质的综合,表明未来时间段內可能发生大地震。 此外还作了控制试验,说明图象识别结果是稳定的。 相似文献
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汶川MS8.0地震发生在青藏高原东缘著名的龙门山断裂带上,造成了从映秀、北川至南坝长约240km的同震地表破裂带．然而目前关于龙门山断裂带的大震复发特征研究较少．通过地震地质科学考察和断层断错地貌的差分GPS测量,发现第一级河流阶地、河床和河漫滩上的垂直断距大致相当,均代表汶川地震的位错,而第二级河流阶地上的累计位移大致是最新地震垂直位移的2倍．利用断错地貌、地震矩率和滑动速率3种方法,分别估算了龙门山断裂带大地震的复发间隔．结果表明:龙门山断裂带中北段可能发生与汶川大地震相当的地震,大震复发符合特征地震模型;大震复发间隔为3000——6000a．该结果可为龙门山断裂带的大震预测和地震危险性评价等研究提供重要的定量数据． 相似文献
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Noureddine Beghoul Jean-Luc Chatelain Mohamed-Salah Boughacha Hadj Benhallou Rida Dadou Amira Mezioud-Saïch 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(3):277-321
Seismic events that occurred during the past half century in the Tellian Atlas, North Africa, are used to establish fundamental seismic empirical relations, tying earthquake magnitude to source parameters (seismic moment, fault plane area, maximal displacement along the fault, and fault plane length). Those empirical relations applied to the overall seismicity from 1716 to present are used to transform the magnitude (or intensity) versus time distribution into (1) cumulative seismic moment versus time, and (2) cumulative displacements versus time. Both of those parameters as well as the computed seismic moment rate, the strain rate along the Tellian Atlas strike, and various other geological observations are consistent with the existence, in the Tellian Atlas, of three distinct active tectonic blocks. These blocks are seismically decoupled from each other, thus allowing consideration of the seismicity as occurring in three different distinct seismotectonic blocks. The cumulative displacement versus time from 1900 to present for each of these tectonic blocks presents a remarkable pattern of recurrence time intervals and precursors associated with major earthquakes. Indeed, most major earthquakes that occurred in these three blocks might have been predicted in time. The Tellian Atlas historical seismicity from the year 881 to the present more substantially confirms these observations, in particular for the western block of the Tellian Atlas. Theoretical determination of recurrence time intervals for the Tellian Atlas large earthquakes using Molnar and Kostrov formalisms is also consistent with these observations. Substantial observations support the fact that the western and central Tellian Atlas are currently at very high seismic risk, in particular the central part. Indeed, most of the accumulated seismic energy in the central Tellian Atlas crust has yet to be released, despite the occurrence of the recent destructive May 2003 Boumerdes earthquake (M w = 6.8). The accumulated seismic energy is equivalent to a magnitude 7.6 earthquake. In situ stress and geodetic measurements, as well as other geophysical field data measurements, are now required to practically check the validity of those observations. 相似文献
12.
Kunihiko Shimazaki 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1974,9(4):314-327
P-wave first motions, radiation patterns and amplitudes of long-period surface waves, relocated aftershock distributions, leveling and tsunami data indicate that the 1973 Nemuro-Oki earthquake is caused by a low-angle thrust-faulting, representing a rebound at the upper 50 km of the interface between the continental and oceanic lithospheres. Rebound, most likely aseismic, at depths below 50 km, is suggested to take place in the near future from a comparison of recent geologic crustal deformation with pre-seismic and co-seismic data. The estimated seismic moment is about of that for the neighboring great earthquakes. The macro-seismic data suggest that the 1973 earthquake is smaller than the 1894 Nemuro-Oki earthquake, the last great earthquake in this region.The 1973 earthquake had been predicted on the basis of a seismic gap. Although the prediction was successful as to the location and nature of the faulting and partly as to the occurrence time, it is smaller than the predicted one. A part of the seismic gap may still remain. The difference between the observed seismic slip (1.6 m) and that predicted on the basis of the pre-seismic crustal deformation (3.0 m) indicates either (1) the 1973 earthquake relieved only a part of the strain accumulated in the upper 50 km, or (2) a significant amount of aseismic slip took place on the seismic fault and completely relieved the accumulated strain in the focal region of the 1973 earthquake. If the former is the case, the remaining strain, not only in the focal region, but also in the remaining seismic gap adjoining it, may be relieved in a larger earthquake in the future.The source parameters obtained are as follows: fault plane, dip direction = N40°W, dip angle = 27°; seismic moment = 6.7 · 1027 dyn cm; average slip dislocation, 1.6 m in N63°W direction; stress drop = 35 bars. In these calculations, the fault dimension and the rigidity are assumed to be 100 · 60 km2 and 7.0 · 1011 dyn/cm2, respectively. 相似文献
13.
本文基于Lomnitz提出的MRI理论,用"累积地震矩(CSM)"算法对全球1900—1999年7级以上的地震进行了处理,试图通过分析大震前CSM图像的变化,来判断地震发生的可能性。对不同地区的6个地震震前CSM图像的分析表明:7级以上地震的CSM图像在震前5到10年内会改变,大部分地震发生在CSM的高值区或次高值区。通过实际运算发现:在不同的地区应使用不同的值可获得较好的结果,用于计算的地震数越多,获得的结果越好。有些大地震前CSM异常区域不是唯一的,往往会出现几个,这可能与研究区域的地震活动性有关。因此,笔者认为:若要获得可靠的CSM图像,除应当考虑不同地区的小震活动水平外,还应考虑地震断层对震后能量分布影响。统计结果表明:在目标地震发生后,下一次地震在空间上发生在原地及2度距离范围内的概率较大,在3度以外区域发生的概率相差不大;在时间上,发生在原地区震后1年内的概率最高,这可能与余震活动有关;在5年的时间里,下一次地震发生的次数占到全部地震的70%以上。因此,要注意大地震后,目标地震附近有地震能量进一步释放的危险性。 相似文献
14.
The Harvard CMT catalogue contains 481 shallow earthquakes that occurred between 1 January 1977 and 30 November 2005 within
a broad region defined by the geographical latitude from 3°S to 14°N and by the longitude from 91°E to 102°E. There are 230
events that occurred before the great earthquake of 26 December 2004. Their surface distribution is not uniform and the source
area of the 2004 great event appears as an area of seismic quiescence with a radius of about 100 km. There are 186 events
that occurred between the two great earthquakes of 26 December 2004 and 28 March 2005. Practically all of them are located
to the northwest from the great earthquake of 2005, that in turn was followed by 63 events, mostly located to the southeast.
The cumulative seismic moment from earthquakes before the occurrence of the great event of 2004 increased rather regularly
with time, with sudden increase about twenty years and two years before the occurrence of the great event. The seismic moment
of earthquakes between the two great events increased rapidly during the first ten-fifteen days, then flattened out and increased
slowly with time. After the great event of 2005 the seismic moment shows quiet increase during some 115 days, then sudden
jump, followed by very small activity till the end of our observations. From the spatial distribution of seismic moment of
earthquakes that occurred before the great event of 2004 it follows that its largest release appeared to the southeast from
the great event, around the rupture area of the great earthquake of 2005. The largest release of seismic moment from earthquakes
between the two great events is observed in the vicinity of the 2004 event and further up to the north. The seismic moment
from earthquakes that occurred after the great event of 2005 was mostly released in its vicinity and further down to the south. 相似文献
15.
Jean M. Johnson Yuichiro Tanioka Larry J. Ruff Kenji Satake Hiroo Kanamori Lynn R. Sykes 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1994,142(1):3-28
The 9 March 1957 Aleutian earthquake has been estimated as the third largest earthquake this century and has the longest aftershock zone of any earthquake ever recorded—1200 km. However, due to a lack of high-quality seismic data, the actual source parameters for this earthquake have been poorly determined. We have examined all the available waveform data to determine the seismic moment, rupture area, and slip distribution. These data include body, surface and tsunami waves. Using body waves, we have estimated the duration of significant moment release as 4 min. From surface wave analysis, we have determined that significant moment release occurred only in the western half of the aftershock zone and that the best estimate for the seismic moment is 50–100×1020 Nm. Using the tsunami waveforms, we estimated the source area of the 1957 tsunami by backward propagation. The tsunami source area is smaller than the aftershock zone and is about 850 km long. This does not include the Unalaska Island area in the eastern end of the aftershock zone, making this area a possible seismic gap and a possible site of a future large or great earthquake. We also inverted the tsunami waveforms for the slip distribution. Slip on the 1957 rupture zone was highest in the western half near the epicenter. Little slip occurred in the eastern half. The moment is estimated as 88×1020 Nm, orM
w
=8.6, making it the seventh largest earthquake during the period 1900 to 1993. We also compare the 1957 earthquake to the 1986 Andreanof Islands earthquake, which occurred within a segment of the 1957 rupture area. The 1986 earthquake represents a rerupturing of the major 1957 asperity. 相似文献
16.
文中给出了根据地震释放的总地震矩求解平均应力场的方法,并使用加入随机误差的人工合成震源机制解数据和唐山余震区震源机制解数据对其进行检验。由检验结果可知,该方法可以应用于区域平均应力场的求解。使用的震源机制解资料越多,所得结果越稳定,且更接近真实的区域应力场。该方法的优点是: 用每个地震的震级作为权重,能够较好地反映出大小地震在应力场反演中的不同贡献; 并且在计算过程中不需要知道震源机制解2个节面中哪个节面为地震断层面。 相似文献
17.
We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes. 相似文献
18.
Katsuyuki Abe 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1985,39(3):157-166
The large deep earthquake of January 21, 1906 is re-evaluated using old seismogram data and updated analysis techniques. From the P and pP-P time data the hypocentre parameters are determined as follows: origin time, 13h 49min 35s; latitude, 33.8°N; longitude, 137.5°E; depth, 340 km. The body-wave magnitude mB is re-evaluated from the amplitude and periods of P, PP and S waves. The average value of 7.4 is obtained. This value is the smallest among any values assigned previously to this shock, and it is denied that the earthquake is the world's largest deep shock in this century. The focal mechanism is estimated from the P-wave first motions and amplitude distribution of P and S waves. Synthetic body waves are used to constrain the mechanism and to determine the seismic moment. The mechanism solution suggests the down-dip compression typical of this region. A seismic moment of 1.5 × 1027 dyn · cm is obtained. This value and the re-evaluated value of mB are consistent with the moment-B relation obtained for other deep earthquakes. 相似文献
19.
Masataka Ando 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1982,28(4):320-336
A fault model of the 1946 Nankaido earthquake (M = 8.2) is determined by the use of tsunami records of Uwajima, Shimotsu and Hososhima which were located within or near the area of major coseismic crustal deformation. Synthetic tsunamis computed for various fault models are matched with the observed tsunamis to determine the fault parameters. A low-angle thrust model slightly revised from a previous model by Ando is consistent with the observed tsunamis. The duration of faulting is constrained as less than 10 min based upon the tsunami. The fault is divided into an eastern and a western segment corresponding to areas associated with and without aftershocks, respectively. The fault area and dislocation for the western segment are 150 × 70 km2 and 6 m, and those for the eastern segment are 150 × 70 km2 and 3 m, respectively. The total seismic moment is 4.7 × 1028 dyn·cm, significantly smaller than that obtained from a geodetic model by Fitch and Scholz, but still larger than that of the seismic model by Kanamori. The discrepancy in seismic moment between the seismic and the present models (RAN2) could be interpreted in terms of a slow dislocation on the fault, but this interpretation does not match the seismic intensity distribution and damage pattern, and the slow-slip model for the Nankaido earthquake is rejected. The discrepancy between the two seismic moments is considered insignificant within error involved in data and modeling assumptions. If the revised geodetic model (RAN2) is modified, the seismic moment required to explain the observed tsunamis would be reduced further by ～30%. If we consider the uncertainties involved in the fault model of Kanamori and the fault-finiteness effect affecting the amplitude of seismic waves, the seismic moment required to interpret the seismic-wave data could be increased, possibly being more than twice that of Kanamori. Thus, the two seismic moments from the different data sets could be close to each other within allowable tolerance. This implies that the rise time of the Nankaido earthquake was short enough to generate short-period seismic waves from both the western and the eastern fault segments. 相似文献
20.
利用遗传算法,搜索符合Brune ω^2模型的拐角频率（fc）及零频幅值（Ωc）的最佳值,测定浙江珊溪水库震区88条小震（1．5≤ML≤4．6）的地震矩（M0）、震源尺度（r）及静态应力降（△σ）。地震矩M0在10^10～10^14N·m范围内,与拐角频率fc遵循Mo∝fc^-3的规律;震源尺度和地震矩、应力降之间呈现多重标度特征,地震矩大于临界值2．3×10^12N·m（相应的震源尺度特征值约160m）时,震源尺度与地震矩的关系较强;而应力降（△σ）在震源尺度大于160m后基本趋向恒定,不随震源尺度的增大而增大。浙江珊溪水库震区自2002年7月以来,经历2次大规模的震群活动。震群释放的应力降大小与该震群的规模成正比关系,大的应力降集中在发震断层中段5～6km深度的区域,其发生时间既可以在主震之前,也可以在主震之后。 相似文献