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1.
Inhomogeneities in the daily mean/maximum/ minimum temperature （Tm/Tmax/Tmin） series from 1960- 2008 at 549 National Standard Stations （NSSs） in China were analyzed by using the Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization （MASH） software package. Typical biases in the dataset were illustrated via the cases of Beijing （B J）, Wutaishan （WT）, Urumqi （UR） and Henan （HN） stations. The homogenized dataset shows a mean warming trend of 0.261/0.193/0.344℃/decade for the annual series of Tm/Tmax/Tmin, slightly smaller than that of the original dataset by 0.006/0.009/0.007℃/decade. However, considerable differences between the adjusted and original datasets were found at the local scale. The adjusted Tmin series shows a significant warming trend almost everywhere for all seasons, while there are a number of stations with an insignificant trend in the original dataset. The adjusted Tm data exhibit significant warming trends annually as well as for the autumn and winter seasons in northern China, and cooling trends only for the summer in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and parts of central China and for the spring in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at several stations for the annual and seasonal scales in the Qinghai, Shanxi, Hebei, and Xinjiang provinces. The adjusted Tmax data exhibit cooling trends for summers at a number of stations in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and for springs and winters at a few stations in southwestern China, while the original data show cooling trends at three/four stations for the annual/autumn periods in the Qinghai and Yunnan provinces. In general, the number of stations with a cooling trend was much smaller in the adjusted Tm and Tmax dataset than in the original dataset. The cooling trend for summers is mainly due to cooling in August. The results of homogenization using MASH appear to be robust; in particular, different groups of stations with consideration of elevation led to minor effects i 相似文献
2.
青藏高原气温变化及其异常类型的研究 总被引：47，自引：16，他引：31
利用青藏高原81个气象台站近30年年平均气温、午平均最高、最低气温资料,采用EOF、REOF、气候线性趋势分析以及累积距平法等方法对青藏高原气温的时空分布特征及其异常类型进行了分析。结果表明：青藏高原年平均气温、年平均最高、最低气温空间变化在具有很好的主体一致性的同时,存在着南北及东西分布的差异,大地形特别是高原主要山脉走向对气温的空间分布具有十分明显的影响;其年际波动呈现出明显的上升趋势,并在20世纪80年代中后期发生过突变;其空间异常类型主要受地形和冷空气活动的影响较为显著。 相似文献
3.
Accurate surface air temperature (T2m) data are key to investigating eco-hydrological responses to global warming. Because of sparse in-situ observations, T2m datasets from atmospheric reanalysis or multi-source observation-based land data assimilation system (LDAS) are widely used in research over alpine regions such as the Tibetan Plateau (TP). It has been found that the warming rate of T2m over the TP accelerates during the global warming slowdown period of 1998–2013, which raises the question of whether the reanalysis or LDAS datasets can capture the warming feature. By evaluating two global LDASs, five global atmospheric reanalysis datasets, and a high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulation driven by one of the global reanalysis, we demonstrate that the LDASs and reanalysis datasets underestimate the warming trend over the TP by 27%–86% during 1998–2013. This is mainly caused by the underestimations of the increasing trends of surface downward radiation and nighttime total cloud amount over the southern and northern TP, respectively. Although GLDAS2.0, ERA5, and MERRA2 reduce biases of T2m simulation from their previous versions by 12%-94%, they do not show significant improvements in capturing the warming trend. The WRF dynamical downscaling dataset driven by ERA-Interim shows a great improvement, as it corrects the cooling trend in ERA-Interim to an observation-like warming trend over the southern TP. Our results indicate that more efforts are needed to reasonably simulate the warming features over the TP during the global warming slowdown period, and the WRF dynamical downscaling dataset provides more accurate T2m estimations than its driven global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim for producing LDAS products over the TP. 相似文献
4.
Previous studies suggested that there are large discrepancies in the intensity trend of the zonally averaged Hadley circulation (ZAHC) among different reanalyses. As the land, ocean, and topography are not evenly distributed, the ZAHC may mask the regional variability. Changes in the regional HC have important implications for regional climate change. Here, we detect the long-term trend of the boreal spring regional Hadley circulation intensity over the western Pacific (WPHC) since 1979 in both hemispheres using six reanalysis datasets. Unlike the ZAHC, we find that the trend of the spring WPHC intensity is consistent among various reanalysis datasets. All reanalyses show pronounced strengthening trends for the WPHC in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, which may be partly attributable to the robust warming trends of sea surface temperature in the tropical western Pacific. The result could improve our understanding of Hadley circulation variability at the regional scale and has implications for regional climate changes. 相似文献
5.
Validation and Application of Reanalysis Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1 
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下载免费PDF全文 The Tibetan Plateau has substantial impacts on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere,due in large part to the thermal effects of the plateau surface.Surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau is the most important parameter in determining these thermal effects.We present a method for verifying widely used reanalysis temperature products from NCEP-R2,ERA-Interim,and JRA-25 over the Tibetan Plateau,with the aim of obtaining a reliable picture of surface temperature and its changes over the plateau.Reanalysis data are validated against the topography elevation,satellite observations,and radiosonde data.ERA-Interim provides the most reliable estimates of Tibetan Plateau surface temperature among these three reanalyses.We therefore use this dataset to study the climatology and trends of surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau.ERA-Interim data indicate a dramatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to2010,with warming rates of 0.33℃ per decade in annual mean temperature,0.22℃ per decade in summer and0.47℃ per decade in winter mean temperatures.Comparison with the results of previous studies suggests that surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated during the past 30 years.This warming is distributed heterogeneously across the Tibetan Plateau,possibly due to topographic effects. 相似文献
6.
Snowfall trends and variability in Qinghai, China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Chang-Qing Ke Ting Yu Kan Yu Guo-Dong Tang Lorenz King 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(3-4):251-258
Snow is an important component of a climate system, and very sensitive to climate change, and it can be an indicator of checking and monitoring global change. This paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of snowfall in Qinghai, located in western China. We used the Mann-Kendall test to evaluate the annual and monthly trends in snowfall in Qinghai during the periods 1957/58–2006/07 based on data obtained from 25 stations. Significant positive and negative trends at the 90, 95, and 99 percent confidence levels were detected for numerous stations. In order to understand the regional pattern of snowfall in Qinghai, the detected trends are spatially interpolated using the inverse distance weighted interpolation method in a GIS environment. The results indicate that in January snowfall in the most area of Qinghai shows a significant upward trend, especially in the Delingha and Nomhon area in northern Qaidam Basin, as well as southeastern Qinghai, however, there is no significant downward trend area. The trend analysis indicates that annual snowfall has a significant upward trend in Delingha and Nomhon area in northern Qaidam Basin, and the downward trends occurred in the Qilian mountain area and Gonghe Basin. This is especially the case for highlighting the spatial structure of snowfall trends. The research results help in further understanding the regional pattern of snowfall in Qinghai and its response to global climatic warming. 相似文献
7.
High spatial resolution of precipitation (P) and average air temperature (Tavg) datasets are ideal for determining the spatial patterns associated with large-scale atmospheric and oceanic indexes, and climate change and variability studies, however such datasets are not usually available. Those datasets are particularly important for Central America because they allow the conception of climate variability and climate change studies in a region of high climatic heterogeneity and at the same time aid the decisionmaking process at the local scale (municipalities and districts). Tavg data from stations and complementary gridded datasets at 50 km resolution were used to generate a high-resolution (5 km grid) dataset for Central America from 1970 to 1999. A highresolution P dataset was used along with the new Tavg dataset to study climate variability and a climate change application. Consistently with other studies, it was found that the 1970-1999 trends in P are generally non-significant, with the exception of a few small locations. In the case of Tavg, there were significant warming trends in most of Central America, and cooling trends in Honduras and northern Panama. When the sea surface temperature anomalies between the Tropical Pacific and the Tropical Atlantic have different (same) sign, they are a good indicator of the sign of P (Tavg) annual anomalies. Even with non-significant trends in precipitation, the significant warming trends in Tavg in most of Central America can have severe consequences in the hydrology and water availability of the region, as the warming would bring increases in evapotranspiration, drier soils and higher aridity. 相似文献
8.
基于青藏高原地区高质量、均一化的气象站点观测资料,研究1981—2010年青藏高原地区气温变化趋势特征。结果表明:1981—2010年青藏高原地区整体呈升温趋势,平均升温率为0.40℃/10a,冬春季升温率大于夏秋季节,以三江源区、西藏中西部和青海北部升温趋势最为显著。青藏高原地区年和冬、春、秋三季的升温率随海拔高度的升高而增大,海拔每升高1000 m,站点年平均气温倾向率增加0.1℃/10a,冬季更为显著。青藏高原地区夏季气温倾向率的空间分布具有显著的经向差异,纬度每增加10°,气温倾向率增加0.33℃/10a。 相似文献
9.
The change in the zonal sea surface temperature gradient (ZSSTG) across the equatorial Pacific plays an important role in the global climate system. However, there has not yet been a consensual conclusion about the changing ZSSTG at either a short-term (from 20 to 90 years) or a long-term time scale (longer than 90 years) in the literature. In this study, the uncertainty of the trend in ZSSTG for different sub-periods since 1881 was examined using four interpolated datasets and four un-interpolated datasets. It was found that the trend in ZSSTG on the short-term time scale could be significantly influenced by internal variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. On the long-term time scale, the sign of the ZSSTG trend depends on the dataset used. In particular, it was not possible to draw a uniform conclusion about the secular trends in ZSSTG in recent history, given the high sensitivity of the ZSSTG trends to the period, dataset, and regions used to calculate the trends. Our results imply that it may not be possible to detect the response of ZSSTG to global warming until a longer data record becomes available in the future. 相似文献
10.
The climatic warming and humidification observed in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC) and their impacts on the ecological environment have become an issue of concern. The associated multi-scale characteristics and environmental responses are currently poorly understood. Using data from satellite remote sensing, field observations, and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6, this paper systematically analyzes the process and scale characteristics of the climatic warming and humidification in the ARNC and their impacts on ecological vegetation. The results show that not only have temperature and precipitation increased significantly in the ARNC over the past 60 years, but the increasing trend of precipitation is also obviously intensifying. The dryness index, which comprehensively considers the effects of precipitation and temperature, has clearly decreased, and the trend in humidification has increased. Spatially, the trend of temperature increase has occurred over the entire region, while 93.4% of the region has experienced an increase in precipitation, suggesting a spatially consistent climatic warming and humidification throughout the ARNC. Long-term trends and interannual changes in temperature and precipitation dominate the changes in climatic warming and humidification. Compared to interannual variations in temperature, the trend change of temperature contributes more to the overall temperature change. However, the contribution of interannual variations in precipitation is greater than that of the precipitation trend to the overall precipitation change. The current climatic warming and humidification generally promote the growth of ecological vegetation. Since the 1980 s,82.4% of the regional vegetation has thrived. The vegetation index has a significant positive correlation with precipitation and temperature. However, it responds more significantly to interannual precipitation variation, although the vegetation response varies significantly under different types of land use. The warming and humidification of the climate in the ARNC are probably related to intensifications of the westerly wind circulation and ascending air motions.They are expected to continue in the future, although the strength of the changes will probably be insufficient to significantly change the basic climate pattern in the ARNC. The results of this study provide helpful information for decision making related to China's "Belt and Road" development strategies. 相似文献
11.
Climate change trend in China, with improved accuracy 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Tian-Xiang Yue Na Zhao R. Douglas Ramsey Chen-Liang Wang Ze-Meng Fan Chuan-Fa Chen Yi-Min Lu Bai-Lian Li 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):137-151
We have found that a spatial interpolation of mean annual temperature (MAT) in China can be accomplished using a global ordinary least squares regression model since the relationship between temperature and its environmental determinants is constant. Therefore the estimation of MAT does not very across space and thus exhibits spatial stationarity. The interpolation of mean annual precipitation (MAP), however, is more complex and changes spatially as a function of topographic variation. Therefore, MAP shows spatial non-stationarity and must be estimated with a geographically weighted regression. A statistical transfer function (STF) of MAT was formulated using minimized residuals output from a high accuracy and high speed method for surface modeling (HASM) with an ordinary least squares (OLS) linear equation that uses latitude and elevation as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-OLS. The STF of MAP under a BOX-COX transformation is derived as a combination of minimized residuals output by HASM with a geographically weighted regression (GWR) using latitude, longitude, elevation, impact coefficient of aspect and sky view factor as independent variables, abbreviated as HASM-GWR-BC. In terms of HASM-OLS and HASM-GWR-BC, MAT had an increasing trend since the 1960s in China, with an especially accelerated increasing trend since 1980. Overall, our data show that MAT has increased by 1.44 °C since the 1960s. The warming rates increase from the south to north in China, except in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Specifically, the 2,100 °C?·?d contour line of annual accumulated temperature (AAT) of ≥10 °C shifted northwestward 255 km in the Heilongjiang province since the 1960s. MAP in Qinghai-Xizang plateau and in arid region had a continuously increasing trend. In the other 7 regions of China, MAP shows both increasing and decreasing trends. On average, China became wetter from the 1960s to the 1990s, but drier from the 1990s to 2000s. The Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Northern China experienced more climatic extremes than Southern China since the 1960s. 相似文献
12.
Vladimir A. Alexeev Igor Esau Igor V. Polyakov Sarah J. Byam Svetlana Sorokina 《Climatic change》2012,111(2):215-239
Spatiotemporal patterns of recent (1979–2008) air temperature trends are evaluated using three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde
data. Our analysis demonstrates large discrepancies between the reanalysis datasets, possibly due to differences in the data
assimilation procedures as well as sparseness and inhomogeneity of high-latitude observations. We test the robustness of arctic
tropospheric warming based on the ERA-40 dataset. ERA-40 Arctic atmosphere temperatures tend to be closer to the observed
ones in terms of root mean square error compared to other reanalysis products used in the article. However, changes in the
ERA-40 data assimilation procedure produce unphysical jumps in atmospheric temperatures, which may be the likely reason for
the elevated tropospheric warming trend in 1979–2002. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data show that the near-surface upward temperature
trend over the same period is greater than the tropospheric trend, which is consistent with direct radiosonde observations
and inconsistent with ERA-40 results. A change of sign in the winter temperature trend from negative to positive in the late
1980s is documented in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere with a maximum over the Canadian Arctic, based on radiosonde
data. This change from cooling to warming tendency is associated with weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and shift
of its center toward the Siberian coast and possibly can be explained by the changes in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation.
This temporal pattern is consistent with multi-decadal variations of key arctic climate parameters like, for example, surface
air temperature and oceanic freshwater content. Elucidating the mechanisms behind these changes will be critical to understanding
the complex nature of high-latitude variability and its impact on global climate change. 相似文献
13.
利用1961—2007年青藏高原66个气象台站气温和降水量资料,通过典型气候分区,系统研究了近47年来青藏高原气温、降水量等气候因子时空演变规律,揭示了青藏高原不同区域气候变化的差异性。研究表明:近47年来,青藏高原的气候呈现出显著增暖趋势,年平均气温以0.37℃/10a的速率上升,气候变暖在夜间要较日间明显。冬季较其他季节明显,2月气温由冷向暖的转变最为显著,8月最不显著,且在某些区域有变冷迹象;高原边缘地区气候变暖要明显于高原腹地,青海北部区特别是柴达木盆地是青藏高原气候变化的敏感区。降水量总体表现出增多态势,气候倾向率达9.1mm/10a,但区域性差异较为明显,藏东南川西区是青藏高原降水量增多最显著的地区;12月至次年5月即冬春季整个青藏高原降水量随着气候变暖而增多,7月和9月黄河上游区1987年后干旱化趋势明显。 相似文献
14.
Climate change in Hispañola is studied since 1900 using a variety of datasets. The longer station-observed temperature record has a significant trend of 0.012 °C/year, while the shorter reanalysis datasets exhibit faster warming, suggesting accelerating greenhouse radiative absorption and Hadley circulation. Rainfall trends are insignificant in the observed period, but a CMIP5 model simulation predicts a significant drying trend. The spatial pattern of climate trends was mapped with reanalysis fields and indicates a faster rate of warming over the eastern half of the island, where observations are dense and the drying trend is greatest. Northeasterly trade winds strengthen on the Atlantic side of the island. While trends intensify in the satellite era compared to the earlier 20th century, part of that effect is ascribed to an upturn in the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation. 相似文献
15.
近44 a中国冬夏气温变率及其对区域变暖性的影响 总被引：6，自引：2，他引：4
利用近44a中国85个测站冬夏季逐日平均、最高和最低气温序列,研究冬夏季温度季节变率及其时空演变特征,探讨其对区域变暖稳定性的影响。结果表明：冬季,除高原、西南、东北以外的中国大部分地区,温度的季节变率存在显著下降趋势,是近期变暖的稳定区,其中变暖最为稳定、显著的区域是西北、华北地区,东北北部虽变暖幅度很大,但稳定性最差;夏季,长江中下游及其江南地区温度变率存在显著上升趋势,20世纪70年代后年际变幅明显增大,表明该地区80年代降温的稳定性差。 相似文献
16.
基于中国均一化气温数据集CN05.1的观测数据,结合暖昼指数（TX90）、冷昼指数（TX10）、暖夜指数（TN90）、冷夜指数（TN10）、暖日持续指数（WSDI）和冷日持续指数（CSDI）6个极端温度指数,从气候平均、概率分布、年际变率和年际趋势方面,系统评估区域气候模式（Climate–Weather Research and Forecasting model, CWRF）对1980～2015年间我国极端温度指数区域分布和年际变化的模拟能力,为改进并利用模式研究我国未来区域极端温度的预测提供科学依据。结果显示:观测的冷暖指数在北方的年际变率幅度高于南方,其中暖指数在我国大部分地区为增暖趋势,冷指数在北方地区的变冷趋势显著,尤其暖夜增暖、冷夜变冷,极端暖事件（WSDI）的持续性比冷事件（CSDI）显著。CWRF模式较好再现了极端温度指数的年均分布和年际变化趋势特征,尤其对暖日和冷日持续指数的模拟优势显著,但仍存在系统性的区域偏差,如低估暖昼和冷夜的极值强度;对华东地区暖（冷）指数变暖（冷）的趋势存在低（高）估;尤其是低估青藏高原地区暖、冷指数的强度,并且高估其暖昼变冷、暖夜变暖的年际变化趋势。因此,该模式对华东及高原地区极端温度的强度和年际变率的模拟仍亟需改善。 相似文献
17.
Yan Yuping You Qinglong Wu Fangying Pepin Nick Kang Shichang 《Climate Dynamics》2020,55(9-10):2405-2419
The Tibetan Plateau (TP), also called the “Third pole”, is sensitive to climate change due to extensive areas at high elevation presently dominated by snow and ice. In this study, observed surface temperature trends at 150 stations over the TP during 1979–2018 are analyzed and compared with surface temperatures from multiple reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-Interim, MERRA, JRA55). Observed warming at the stations has a mean annual rate of 0.46 °C/decade during 1979–2018. Although all reanalyses underestimate observed temperatures (cold bias), most reproduce much of the inter-decadal variations of surface temperature shown in the observations. Absolute errors of mean surface temperature (reanalysis minus observation) are closely correlated with elevation errors, suggesting that parts of the cold bias can be interpreted by elevation errors of reanalysis. After elevation-temperature correction, about half of the cold bias is typically eliminated, more for both ERA-Interim and JRA55. Compared with the observations, corrected NCEP2 surface temperatures still have larger cold biases, and fail to capture the overall warming over the TP. Since the elevation-temperature correction fails to improve trend magnitudes even when a significant proportion of the bias has been removed, this suggests that a more sophisticated modeling of the lapse rate in each reanalysis is required to realistically model warming trends across complex topography.
相似文献18.
Based on two field surveys of permafrost distribution, conducted 26 years apart, along the Mackenzie Highway south of Great Slave Lake, Canada, the southern limit of the sporadic discontinuous permafrost zone in the region has migrated northward by about 120 km. To substantiate that the disappearance of perennial frozen ground is largely caused by climatic warming, a detailed trend analysis of monthly air temperature records from nine weather stations was performed using the non-parametric Kendall's test. The results show that the region experienced a general warming trend for the period 1949–1989 and warming is more prominent in the minimum than the maximum temperature series. From estimates of the magnitude of warming trends on a monthly basis, the resultant increase in mean annual air temperature could readily lead to the observed northward migration of permafrost. 相似文献
19.
利用西南地区135个站1961—2005年的年、月气温资料,按海拔高差及地形气候特征划分成不同的三级地形台阶及4个分区,分析了不同分区的气温时空变化特征。结果表明：西南地区大部年平均气温表现出明显的增温趋势,上升趋势最显著的地区在西藏高原等高海拔地区,而在四川的东北部及云南北部存在降温中心。各分区四季的增温速率排序与全国平均情况有所不同,依次为冬季、秋季、夏季或春季,且均表现出冬季增温趋势明显大于其他季节的特性。各分区年平均气温20世纪60年代至80年代中期基本表现为明显的下降趋势或无明显的增减趋势,但自1997年以来,均表现出显著的增温趋势。突变检测的结果也表明,各分区年平均气温突变的区域或突变点大部分发生在90年代后期以后,且高海拔地区增温突变启动时间早于其他低海拔地区。 相似文献
20.
Ahmed M. El Kenawy Juan I. López-Moreno Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano Mohammed S. Mekld 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(1-2):1-8
This paper investigates spatial variability of temperature trends over Libya in the second half of the 20th century. The study is based on complete and homogeneous time series of minimum, maximum, and mean temperature for ten observatories. During the investigated period (1951–1999), temperature trend analyses have experienced a downward trend in the maximum surface temperature (about –0.06°C decade–1) and an upward trend in the minimum surface temperature (about 0.23°C decade–1). Cooling tendency in maximum temperature is spatially more pronounced in inland stations compared to coastal stations. At the seasonal scale, maximum temperature cooling is more obvious in winter and spring, meanwhile minimum temperature warming is more pronounced in summer and fall. In accordance with global trends, the surface mean temperature has moderately risen at an average rate of 0.09°C decade–1. However, this trend has shown considerable temporal variability considering a more pronounced upward trend in summer and fall. In conjunction with other regional and global investigations, clear trends towards smaller diurnal range are presented (–0.28°C decade–1). 相似文献