共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
N.R. Rigozo M.P. Souza Echer H. Evangelista D.J.R. Nordemann E. Echer 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2011,73(11-12):1294-1299
The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23. 相似文献
2.
The observations of solar activity (average monthly values of the international sunspot numbers and areas, solar radioemission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity (average monthly values of the count rate of an omnidirectional Geiger counter at a maximum of the transition curve in the regions of Moscow and Murmansk and differences between these values) have been studied. The main aim of the studies was to assess the possibility of using the series of GCR values as an additional type of instrumental observations to predict solar activity. The results of an analysis made it possible to assess the degree of interrelation between the studied time series and, thereby, to confirm that GCRs, together with the characteristics of sunspot formation and solar radioemission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, can be used to predict solar activity. The development of the current solar cycle has been predicted. It is assumed that the duration of this cycle will exceed the average value. 相似文献
3.
Data from three solar observatories (Learmonth, Holloman, and San Vito) are used to study the variations in the average number of sunspots per sunspot group. It is found that the different types of sunspot groups and the number of sunspots in these groups have different solar cycle and cycle to cycle variations. The varying ratio between the average number of sunspots and the number of sunspot groups is shown to be a real feature and not a result of changing observational instruments, observers’ experience, calculation schemes, etc., and is a result of variations in the solar magnetic fields. Therefore, the attempts to minimize the discrepancies between the sunspot number and sunspot group series are not justified, and lead to the loss of important information about the variability of the solar dynamo. 相似文献
4.
5.
It has been indicated that special moments (turning points), when certain characteristics of the latitudinal (equatorward) drift of the sunspot drift zone suddenly change, exist in each 11-year solar cycle. The moment when a sunspot formation low-latitude boundary minimum (T2), coordinated in time with the end of a polar magnetic field polarity reversal, exists has a special place among these points. A conclusion has been drawn that it is impossible to reconstruct polarity reversal moments in the past based on information about turning points T2. The average velocities of the latitudinal drift of the minimal, average, and maximal sunspot group latitudes have been calculated. It has been indicated that the closeness of the relationship between the first two velocities and the maximal activity amplitudes in the cycles differ substantially for the first (before point T2) and second (after point T2) cycle parts. The corresponding values of the correlation coefficients increase substantially in the second cycle (after point T2). It has been established that a relationship exists between some velocities calculated in these cycles and the activity amplitudes at maximums of the next cycles. A model for predicting future cycle maximums has been constructed based on this conclusion. The probable average annual Wolf number at a maximum of cycle 24 has been determined (W(24) = 93). 相似文献
6.
D. R. K. Rao 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1972,98(1):146-152
Summary Results of sunspot cycle influence on solar and lunar ranges at a low latitude station, Alibag, outside the equatorial electrojet belt, show that the sunspot cycle association in solar ranges is three times that of the lunar ranges in thed- andj-seasons. This is in general agreement with the earlier results for non-polar latitude stations. The association with sunspot number of individual lunar amplitudes is greatest for lunar semidiurnal harmonic in thej-season. During this season, the sunspot cycle influence on lunar variations is more than that on solar variations, thereby indicating that the lunar current is situated at a level more favourable for sunspot cycle influence than the level of the current associated with solar variations. With the increase in solar activity a shift appears in the times of maxima of semidiurnal lunar variation towards a later lunar hour ine- andj-seasons and in the year. 相似文献
7.
We study the mutual relation of sunspot numbers and several proxies of solar UV/EUV radiation, such as the F10.7 radio flux, the HeI 1083 nm equivalent width and the solar MgII core-to-wing ratio. It has been noted earlier that the relation between these solar activity parameters changed in 2001/2002, during a large enhancement of solar activity in the early declining phase of solar cycle 23. This enhancement (the secondary peak after the Gnevyshev gap) forms the maximum of solar UV/EUV parameters during solar cycle 23. We note that the changed mutual relation between sunspot numbers and UV/EUV proxies continues systematically during the whole declining phase of solar cycle 23, with the UV/EUV proxies attaining relatively larger values for the same sunspot number than during the several decennia prior to this time. We have also verified this evolution using the indirect solar UV/EUV proxy given by a globally averaged f0(F2) frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer. We also note of a simultaneous, systematic change in the relation between the sunspot numbers and the total solar irradiance, which follow an exceptionally steep relation leading to a new minimum. Our results suggest that the reduction of sunspot magnetic fields (probably photospheric fields in general), started quite abruptly in 2001/2002. While these changes do not similarly affect the chromospheric UV/EUV emissions, the TSI suffers an even more dramatic reduction, which cannot be understood in terms of the photospheric field reduction only. However, the changes in TSI are seen to be simultaneous to those in sunspots, so most likely being due to the same ultimate cause. 相似文献
8.
H. Schreiber 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(5):510-517
Yearly averages of geomagnetic activity indices Ap for the years 1967–1984 are compared to the respective averages of v2 · Bs, where v is the solar wind velocity and Bs is the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) component. The correlation of both quantities is known to be rather good. Comparing the averages of Ap with v2 and Bs separately we find that, during the declining phase of the solar cycle, v2 and during the ascending phase Bs have more influence on Ap. According to this observation (using Fourier spectral analysis) the semiannual and 27 days, Ap variations for the years 1932–1993 were analysed separately for years before and after sunspot minima. Only those time-intervals before sunspot minima with a significant 27-day recurrent period of the IMF sector structure and those intervals after sunspot minima with a significant 28–28.5-day recurrent period of the sector structure were used. The averaged spectra of the two Ap data sets clearly show a period of 27 days before and a period of 28–29 days after sunspot minimum. Moreover, the phase of the average semiannual wave of Ap is significantly different for the two groups of data: the Ap variation maximizes near the equinoxes during the declining phase of the sunspot cycle and near the beginning of April and October during the ascending phase of the sunspot cycle, as predicted by the Russell-McPherron (R-M) mechanism. Analysing the daily variation of ap in an analogue manner, the same equinoctial and R-M mechanisms are seen, suggesting that during phases of the solar cycle, when ap depends more on the IMF-Bs component, the R-M mechanism is predominant, whereas during phases when ap increases as v increases the equinoctial mechanism is more likely to be effective. 相似文献
9.
Gui-Qing Zhang 《地震学报(英文版)》1998,11(4):495-500
The relations between sunspot numbers and earthquakes (M≧6), solar 10.7 cm radio flux and earthquakes, solar proton events and earthquakes have been analyzed in this paper. It has
been found that: (1) Earthquakes occur frequently around the minimum years of solar activity. Generally, the earthquake activities
are relatively less during the peak value years of solar activity, some say, around the period when magnetic polarity in the
solar polar regions is reversed. (2) the earthquake frequency in the minimum period of solar activity is closely related to
the maximum annual means of sunspot numbers, the maximum annual means of solar 10.7 cm radio flux and solar proton events
of a whole solar cycle, and the relation between earthquake and solar proton events is closer than others. (3) As judged by
above interrelationship, the period from 1995 to 1997 will be the years while earthquake activities are frequent. In the paper,
the simple physical discussion has been carried out.
These results supported the exploration and studies of some researchers to a certain extent.
This work is supported by Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (major item). 相似文献
10.
A. G. Tlatov 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2013,53(8):953-956
Relative variations in the number of sunspots and sunspot groups in activity cycles have been analyzed based on data from the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station and international indices. The following regularities have been established: (1) The relative fraction of small sunspots decreases linearly and that of large sunspots increase with increasing activity cycle amplitude. (2) The variation in the average number of sunspots in one group has a trend, and this number decreased from ～12 in cycle 19 to ～7.5 in cycle 24. (3) The ratio of the sunspot index (Ri) to the sunspot group number index (G gr) varies with a period of about 100 years. (4) An analysis of the sunspot group number index (G gr) from 1610 indicates that the Gnevyshev-Ohl rule reverses at the minimums of secular activity cycles. (5) Ratio of the total area to area of Ssp/Sum nuclei has long-term variation with a period approximately 8 cycles. Minimum ratio falls on 16–17 cycles of activity. (6) It has been indicated that the magnetic field intensity and sunspot area in the current cycle are related to the amplitude of the next activity cycle. 相似文献
11.
对比分析1957--2008年间Dst≤-100nT的强磁暴数与太阳黑子数的变化趋势,发现太阳黑子数和Dst≤-100nT的强磁暴数的变化趋势有很好的一致性。进一步统计强磁暴在太阳周不同阶段的分布后发现,同一太阳周内60％以上的强磁暴出现在下降年,但从太阳周各个阶段的平均磁暴年发生率来看,强磁暴平均年发生率最高的年份仍然是太阳活动极大年。 相似文献
12.
The properties of the sunspot latitudinal distributions related to skewness have been studied based on the data of the extended Greenwich catalog for 1874–2011. The results of the performed analysis indicate that a significant skewness is present in most annual latitudinal distributions of the sunspot index. In this case, the distribution skewness increases near the 11-year cycle maximum phase. An increase in the sunspot group number is also accompanied by an increase in skewness. In particular, when the sunspot index is large, the number of groups located below midlatitudes is mostly larger than the number of groups above these latitudes and this imbalance increases with increasing total sunspot activity level. In medium and large 11-year cycles, the average distribution skewness for a cycle is always positive and its value is related to the cycle amplitude. This results agree with the theoretical models of the 11-year cycle, where the specific features of the low-latitude meridional circulation are related to the sunspot activity level. 相似文献
13.
Two parameters,the smoothed sunspot numbers in the eleventh month during
rising phase of the current cycle and the length month of the minimum period (R<14),are selected to predict the
maximum-value of sunspot number of cycle 23 in this paper. The predicted maximum-values of
smoothed sunspot number are 115<Ri<149 and 114<Ri<146 also predicted by
statistical method. The peak-time will be from September,1999 to March,2000,and the end-time will be from August,2006 to April,2008. 相似文献
14.
We have determined the correlation coefficient between tree-ring index values and the sunspot cycle length for 69 tree-ring data sets from around the world of greater than 594 years duration. A matrix of correlation coefficients is formed with varying delay and smoothing parameters. Similar matrices, formed from the same data, but randomly scrambled, provide a control against which we can draw conclusions about the influence of the solar cycle length on climate with a reasonable degree of confidence. We find that the data confirm an association between the sunspot cycle length and climate with a negative maximum correlation coefficient for 80% of the data sets considered. This implies that wider tree-rings (i.e. more optimum growth conditions) are associated with shorter sunspot cycles. Secondly, we find that the climatic effect of the solar cycle length is smoothed by several decades and the degree of smoothing is dependent on the elevation and the geographical location of the trees employed. Thirdly, we find evidence for a cyclic variation of ∼200 years period in either solar cycle length or tree ring index. © 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 相似文献
15.
The correlation between geomagnetic activity and the sunspot number in the 11-year solar cycle exhibits long-term variations due to the varying time lag between the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity, and the varying relative amplitude of the respective geomagnetic activity peaks. As the sunspot-related and non-sunspot related geomagnetic activity peaks are caused by different solar agents, related to the solar toroidal and poloidal fields, respectively, we use their variations to derive the parameters of the solar dynamo transforming the poloidal field into toroidal field and back. We find that in the last 12 cycles the solar surface meridional circulation varied between 5 and 20 m/s (averaged over latitude and over the sunspot cycle), the deep circulation varied between 2.5 and 5.5 m/s, and the diffusivity in the whole of the convection zone was ～108 m2/s. In the last 12 cycles solar dynamo has been operating in moderately diffusion dominated regime in the bulk of the convection zone. This means that a part of the poloidal field generated at the surface is advected by the meridional circulation all the way to the poles, down to the tachocline and equatorward to sunspot latitudes, while another part is diffused directly to the tachocline at midlatitudes, “short-circuiting” the meridional circulation. The sunspot maximum is the superposition of the two surges of toroidal field generated by these two parts of the poloidal field, which is the explanation of the double peaks and the Gnevyshev gap in sunspot maximum. Near the tachocline, dynamo has been operating in diffusion dominated regime in which diffusion is more important than advection, so with increasing speed of the deep circulation the time for diffusive decay of the poloidal field decreases, and more toroidal field is generated leading to a higher sunspot maximum. During the Maunder minimum the dynamo was operating in advection dominated regime near the tachocline, with the transition from diffusion dominated to advection dominated regime caused by a sharp drop in the surface meridional circulation which is in general the most important factor modulating the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. 相似文献
16.
Using the annual number of geomagnetically quiet days (aa < 20 γ) for the year after the solar minimum, this precursor method predicts that the maximum sunspot number for cycle 23 will be 140 + 32, indicating that cycle 23 will be similar to cycles 21 and 22. 相似文献
17.
Hiroko Miyahara Kentaro Nagaya Kimiaki Masuda Yasushi Muraki Hiroyuki Kitagawa Toshio Nakamura 《Quaternary Geochronology》2008,3(3):208-212
In this paper, we review the variation of the 11-year solar cycle since the 15th century revealed by the measurement of radiocarbon content in single-year tree-rings of Japanese cedar trees. Measurements of radiocarbon content in absolutely dated tree-rings provide a calibration curve for accurate dating of archaeological matters, but at the same time, enable us to examine the variations of solar magnetic activity in the pre-historical period. The Sun holds several long-term quasi-cyclic variations in addition to the fundamental 11-year sunspot activity cycle and the 22-year polarity reversal cycle, and it is speculated that the property of the 11-year and the 22-year solar cycle varies in association with such long-term quasi-cycles. It is essential to reveal the details of solar variations around the transition time of solar dynamo for illuminating the mechanisms of the long-term solar variations. We therefore have investigated the property of the 11-year and 22-year cycles around the two grand solar minima; the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD) and the Spoerer Minimum (1415–1534 AD), the periods of prolonged sunspot minima. As a result, slight stretching of the “11-year” and the “22-year” solar cycles was found during these two grand solar activity minima; continuously during the Maunder Minimum and only intermittently during the Spoerer Minimum. On the contrary, normal or slightly shortened 11-year cycles were detected during the interval period of these two minima. It suggests the inverse correlation between the solar cycle length and solar magnetic activity level, and also the change of meridional flow during the grand solar activity minima. Further measurements for the beginning of the grand solar minima will provide a clue to the occurrence of such prolonged sunspot disappearance. We also discuss the effect of solar variations to radiocarbon dating. 相似文献
18.
Solar variability is controlled by the internal dynamo which is a non-linear system. We develop a physical–statistical method for forecasting solar activity that takes into account the non-linear character of the solar dynamo. The method is based on the generally accepted mechanisms of the dynamo and on recently found systematic properties of the long-term solar variability. The amplitude modulation of the Schwabe cycle in dynamo's magnetic field components can be decomposed in an invariant transition level and three types of oscillations around it. The regularities that we observe in the behaviour of these oscillations during the last millennium enable us to forecast solar activity. We find that the system is presently undergoing a transition from the recent Grand Maximum to another regime. This transition started in 2000 and it is expected to end around the maximum of cycle 24, foreseen for 2014, with a maximum sunspot number Rmax=68±17. At that time a period of lower solar activity will start. That period will be one of regular oscillations, as occurred between 1730 and 1923. The first of these oscillations may even turn out to be as strongly negative as around 1810, in which case a short Grand Minimum similar to the Dalton one might develop. This moderate-to-low-activity episode is expected to last for at least one Gleissberg cycle (60–100 years). 相似文献
19.
Blanca Mendoza Víctor Manuel Mendoza René Garduño Julián Adem 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(14-15):1122-1128
It is uncertain whether the solar cycle 24 will have a high or a low sunspot maximum number. In its last revision the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel indicates that the low prediction is the most likely. Also, solar cycle 25 is considered to present an equal or lower activity than cycle 24. In order to assess the possible effect of the solar activity on temperature, in the present work we attempt to model the tendency of the Northern Hemisphere temperature for the years 2009–2029, corresponding to solar cycles 24 and 25, using a thermodynamic climate model. We include as forcings the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and the solar activity by means of the total solar irradiance, considering that the latter has not only a direct effect on climate, but also an indirect one through the modulation of the low cloud cover. We use two IPCC-2007 CO2 scenarios, one with a high fossil consumption and other with a low use of fossil sources. Also we consider higher and lower solar activity conditions. We found that in all the performed experiments the inclusion of the solar activity produces a noticeable reduction in warming respect to the IPCC-2007 CO2 scenarios. Such reduction goes between ～14% and ～44%. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the TCM, we use the root mean square (RMS) between the observed and model temperatures for the period 1980–2003. We find that the RMS for the experiment using the CO2 as the only forcing is 0.06 °C,while for the experiment that includes also the solar activity it is higher, 0.13 °C. 相似文献
20.
The following results have been achieved in this work. The distribution of the recurrence times of solar flare events is generally lognormal. The typical flare recurrence times at the cycle 23 minimum and maximum are different: the average times (100–200 min) are most typical of the maximum; at the same time, the minimum is simultaneously characterized by short (several tens of seconds) and long (from several hundreds to a thousand of minutes). The minimal flare recurrence time tends to decrease in an active region with increasing sunspot group area in this region. The average flare recurrence times in an active region have typical values of 120m, 210m, 300m, 400m, and 530m, which is close to the typical periods of long-period sunspot oscillations. The total number of flares in an active region depends on the sunspot area in this region and the flare energy release rate. 相似文献