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1.
Vegetation and lake-level data from the sites of Lake Morat (Switzerland) and Lake Annecy (eastern France) are used to provide quantitative estimates of climatic variables over the period 6600-5500 cal. yr BP in the northern Subalpine zone, and to test the method of climate reconstruction based on modern pollen analogues constrained by lake-level data. The results obtained from both sites suggest: (1) that phases of higher lake level coincided with a cooling and a shortening of the growing season and an increase in annual precipitation, and (2) that during climatic reversals summer was more affected than winter. They also provide evidence of a sensitive method of reconstruction of climatic variables capable of capturing minor climatic oscillations such as reflected by weakly pronounced lake-level fluctuations. However, comparison of results obtained at Lake Morat and Lake Annecy, with each other and with results from other sites in central Europe, also clearly indicates that either anthropogenic disturbances of the vegetation cover or an overrepresentation of taxa due to particular site exposition can bias the reconstruction of variations in climatic parameters. In addition to pluri-centennial climatic oscillations, both the Lake Morat and Lake Annecy records show a general trend toward temperature cooling over the period considered. This may be related to a reduction in summer insolation induced by orbital factors. Finally, the quantitative estimates of climatic parameters reconstructed at Lake Morat and Lake Annecy help to increase our understanding of the possible impact of climatic oscillations on ancient agricultural communities.  相似文献   

2.
Ji  Yuhe  Zhou  Guangsheng  Wang  Lixia  Wang  Shudong  Li  Zongshan 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(3):1213-1222

A long time series in crop yield is usually expressed as a long-term trend and a short-term fluctuation due to agricultural technological advance and climatic anomaly. The real climate risk is related to the short-term fluctuation in crop yield. In the paper, the climate risk of maize yield response to long-term climate variables is tested with the long time series (1961–2015) by a trend base line method. The long time series of maize yield is divided into short-term fluctuating meteorological yield and long-term trend yield. The long time series of climate variables are also divided into fluctuating variables and trend variables. After that, Pearson correlation analysis between fluctuating maize yield and fluctuating climate variables is used to identify risk factor causing maize yield fluctuation. Our results reveal that the main risk factors are night-time precipitation and extreme high temperature in growing season. Comparing climate risks in maize-producing provinces, much more climate risks are identified in some regions such as Liaoning province. The results provide useful information for reducing maize yield loss under climatic change.

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3.
In the present context of climate change and preservation of biodiversity, the appreciation of the vulnerability of the natural ecosystems and their capacity of adaptation appears among the main preoccupations to the world level (GIEC, 2007). This assessment of the ecosystems requires the availability of climatic data, what is often made difficult by the weak density or even the absence of meteorological stations notably, to the level of the mountains zones. In order to study the climate–vegetation relationship in North Algeria, we use an automatic interpolation method, the neural network method, for the reconstitution of climatic data of the sampled sites, (1035 phytoecological samples), from the existing meteorological network (269 stations). This method is characterized by a great suppleness of non-linearity and by its capacity for reconstituting information from partial and not well-defined indications such as the case of data provided from meteorological networks. In order to reconstitution of climatic data, we use the explicate variables, longitude, latitude and altitude, the variables to explain being the rainfall and temperatures. To define the best approach, the network calibration has been activated on climatic parameters taken globally or solely, for the whole of study zone, and by geographical sector. The results of the interpolation are expressed through a climatic parameter cartography, released automatically by the MapInfo software. The reliability results obtained by this method can be appreciated by elaboration of errors maps comparing to reference data.  相似文献   

4.
海河流域ET0演变规律及灵敏度分析   总被引：10，自引：3，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文
根据国家气象站1956-2000年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith公式和灵敏指数法,分析了海河流域潜在蒸发蒸腾(ET0)的演变规律及与气象要素的灵敏关系。结果表明:全流域45年ET0呈下降趋势,但年际间呈现4个阶段;逐旬呈倒"V"字型,61.6%集中于4月中旬到8月上旬。在空间上,年和旬值呈现上游小下游大。通过ET0与气象要素演变的比较及灵敏性分析发现,全流域年ET0演变与年均风速、日照时数以及短波辐射相似,与温度相反。旬ET0演变与旬平均温度、实际水汽压、日照时数以及短波辐射相似,但对各要素的灵敏系数以短波辐射最大,其它要素则随时空变化,且彼此的灵敏系数相差较大。分析表明在气象要素的综合作用下,造成全流域ET0降低的主要原因可能在于短波辐射、日照时数的变化。  相似文献   

5.
For the 1993–2009 period, we analyzed the relationship between almond yield and three climatic variables (mean annual temperature, soil water reserve, and precipitation), and four bioclimatic variables (annual ombrothermic index, water deficit, simple continentality index, and compensated thermicity index), for one major Hebron crop (soft and hard almonds). Moreover, we obtained data almond production from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, while the climate data from the Palestinian meteorological station during the study period from 1993 to 2009, and analysis is it by using bioclimatic classification of the Earth of Salvador Rivas-Martinez to study the relationship between the almond yield and climate and bioclimate factors (variables). The climatic and bioclimate variables of greatest importance to almond were used to develop regressions analysis relating yield to climatic conditions. Hebron was positively affected by annual ombrothermic index, simple continentality index, precipitation, water soil reserve, and mean annual temperature, but negatively affected by water deficit, with a large proportion of the variance explained by axis F1 (72.48%), F2 (22.38%), and axes F1and F2 (94. 86%). However, in order to produce a high amount of almonds and quality, it can be grown in the regions of the mesomediterranean region, with the value of annual ombrothemic index more than 3, compensated thermicity index between 220/220 to 350/350, simple continentality index between 14 and 20, and in areas where the average annual temperature is between 15 and 20 °C.  相似文献   

6.
When properly calibrated, Holocene pollen data provide an important source of quantitative information about Holocene climates. Multiple linear regression of modern climate and pollen data allows the development of statistical calibration functions that transform percentages of certain pollen types into quantitative estimates of climatic variables, and these functions, when applied to Holocene pollen data, yield estimates of climatic variables for past times. Confidence intervals for the climatic variables provide estimates of the statistical errors. These interval estimates are based upon the following statistical assumptions: (1) the regression model is appropriate; (2) the errors in measuring the climate variables are independent, normally distributed and have constant variance; and (3) no outliers are present. We outline the steps to be followed in calculating calibration functions, including (1) selecting the calibration region; (2) selecting a pollen sum; (3) analyzing scatter diagrams of a given climate variable against each pollen type; (4) deleting outliers and transforming pollen data; (5) performing the regression; and (6) testing the appropriateness of the statistical assumptions. We used available computer programs for most of this study. In addition, we developed new software to compute the Moran statistic to test for spatial autocorrelation among the regression residuals, using the dual of the Voronoi diagram to describe the spatial relationships among the sites. In order to illustrate the sequence of procedures, we used data from the lower peninsula of Michigan to develop a calibration function for July mean temperature and then used Holocene pollen data from central lower Michigan to estimate past temperatures.  相似文献   

7.
An analytical method has been developed for evaluating the dependence of historical fish stock levels on estuarine pollutant loadings. Categorical time series regressions were used to derive preliminary relationships among previous levels of stock size, climatic variables, and pollution indicators. The analysis technique is used here to evaluate hypotheses on the effects of human population changes and dredging activity on stock histories of the Potomac estuary’s striped bass and American shad, for the period 1929 through 1976. Whereas climatic factors dominate striped bass dynamics compared to the two pollution variates tested, the American shad stock shows strong dependence on human population levels (but not on dredging activity) compared to climatic factors. Analyses of this type will be extended for examining the effects of specific pollutants on other important exploited stocks in five northeastern eatuaries.  相似文献   

8.
In this paper, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is introduced to analyze the input–output efficiency of energy consumption and economic indicators in Beijing city under the influence of short-term climatic factors. Total energy consumption, fixed asset investment, average temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours, average wind velocity and the average pressure being employed as the input variables, gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita disposable income being employed as the output variables, effective technology and the validity of the scale of DEA of 31 decision-making units (DMUs) under the influence of the short-term climatic factors are analyzed, and the inefficient DMUs are improved. Empirical analysis shows that both energy consumption and economic growth are sensitive to short-term climate condition, and the reasonable employing of extreme climatic conditions is a question worthy of consideration. This study provides effective basis for the scientific and reasonable arrangement of Beijing city’s short-term climatic resources and energy–economic development.  相似文献   

9.
The continental climatic evolution of Anatolia has been reconstructed quantitatively for the last 45 million years using the coexistence approach. Although there were some regional effects, the Anatolian Cenozoic continental climate record correlated with the European climatic condition and the global oxygen isotope record from marine environments. From middle Eocene to late Miocene, continental warming in Anatolia was pronounced for inferred winter temperature and mean annual temperature as in Europe. Generally, the palaeoclimatic property of Anatolia resembles the European climatic changing and marine temperature changing based on the oxygen isotope record; however, climatic values of the terrestrial area in Anatolia are higher from Lutetian to Aquitanian and these values are lower than European values from Aquitanian to Tortonian. Correspondingly, Cenozoic climatic cooling in Anatolia is directly associated with an increase of seasonality, palaeogeographic position and terrestrial condition. Furthermore, mean annual precipitation values of Anatolia remained relatively stable during the Eocene–Oligocene; however, these values indicated changing throughout middle–late Miocene. Moreover, in this study, decline of abundance and variables for the mangrove and back mangrove palaeocommunities during the last 45 million years is recorded because of the decreasing of humidity, temperature and increasing of terrestrial condition.  相似文献   

10.
The flood events observed during last years in the urban areas are subject of main interest for quantification of the hydro-climatic risks and climatic change to the regional scales. The establishment of a statistical relationship between the intensities of intense rains and the recurrence of these events allows us to determine the dimensions of the works according to a previously defined level of risk. They constitute today a leading tool for various users. This work concerns the study of the maximum annual rains, recorded at 49 stations in the northern Algeria. The objectives of this work are to determine the estimators who are the “intensity-duration-frequency” curves and to extract from these whole of information the b Montana climatic parameter to be regionalized for the calculating the river flow and for the dimensioning of the networks of cleansing in the event of insufficiency of data. Different durations going from 15 min to 24 h are studied. We utilised the collocated co-kriging as multivariate estimation method for interpolation in order to yield the space distribution maps of b Montana climatic parameter, with the benefit of using spatially correlated secondary variables, such as the digital elevation model and the distance from the coastline that are known at any localisation. All features led to choose the digital elevation model as covariate for interpolating b Montana values, yielding a better regionalisation of the studied climatic parameter. The geostatistical handling of b Montana values strictly related to auxiliary variables that constitute physical factors overcomes the data shortage in planning, managing and preventing the rain flood risk.  相似文献   

11.
Assessing the climatic characteristics and identifying the climatic parameters of a specific region can play a major role in human welfare. Thermal comfort conditions are among the most significant factors of climatic variables in the northwestern regions of Iran due to the considerable spatial and temporal variations and are vital for environmental, energy and economic management. It is therefore necessary to advance our knowledge of the climatic conditions in order to provide an appropriate tool for managing climatic extremes. This requires charting of the range of clusters of the thermal comfort conditions in this region. In this study, the general atmosphere circulation model HADCM3 and the A1 scenario, downscaled by the LARS-WG model, were employed to simulate the climatic conditions in Iran during the period 2011–2040. The data obtained were compared with sampled data from six Iranian climatic stations for the 30-year period (1961–1990). In order to tabulate this comparison, six clusters per climatic station were defined based on intrinsic similarity of data. Results show an increase in the annual average temperature of these six stations by 1.69 °C for the predicted years, projected from the base years 1961–1990. This factor has resulted in an increment of the annual average thermal comfort temperature inside buildings by a magnitude of 0.52 °C in future decades. When the thermal requirements of the studied region were evaluated based on the real temperature difference and the degree of thermal comfort, it becomes clear that apart from cluster 1, the energy required to reach thermal comfort inside buildings will increase in the future. As a result of this temperature increase, an increase of the energy required to reach the thermal comfort is expected. This new methodology is an interesting tool and needs to be seriously considered by engineers and architects in designing buildings of the future.  相似文献   

12.
Topography as a fundamental element of glacial systems   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
The equilibrium line of glaciers as a climate-sensitive parameter is indispensable for the assessment of changes in climate through time. The methods previously developed for calculating the equilibrium line do not obtain, however, satisfactory accuracy. Using the statistical evaluation of data collected from 223 glaciers it is shown here that the inaccuracy of the prevailing methods results from the negligence of the specific glacier geometry.In calculating realistic ELAs glaciers must be understood as dynamic systems whose variables, climatic environment and topography, are linked through feedback. The accompanying transformation in this dynamic system, which is expressed by the difference between a mathematical index and the ELA, can be exactly determined with a regression line. The climatically induced change in glacier geometry is the controlling factor, i.e. operator. The behaviour of glacial systems in view of long-term climatic variations can first be understood when the details of the interdependency between topographical and climatic parameters are fully known, as will be demonstrated here.ELA = Equilibrium Line Altitude  相似文献   

13.
Guidelines are determined for the spatial density and location of climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) that are appropriate for estimating the continental- to hemispheric-scale pattern of atmospheric circulation (sea-level pressure). Because instrumental records of temperature and precipitation simulate the climatic information that is contained in certain paleoenvironmental records (tree-ring, pollen, and written-documentary records, for example), these guidelines provide useful sampling strategies for reconstructing the pattern of atmospheric circulation from paleoenvironmental records. The statistical analysis uses a multiple linear regression model. The sampling strategies consist of changes in site density (from 0.5 to 2.5 sites per million square kilometers) and site location (from western North American sites only to sites in Japan, North America, and western Europe) of the climatic data. The results showed that the accuracy of specification of the pattern of sea-level pressure: (1) is improved if sites with climatic records are spread as uniformly as possible over the area of interest; (2) increases with increasing site density-at least up to the maximum site density used in this study; (3) is improved if sites cover an area that extends considerably beyond the limits of the area of interest. The accuracy of specification was lower for independent data than for the data that were used to develop the regression model; some skill was found for almost all sampling strategies.  相似文献   

14.
Al-Taher  Abdulla Ahmed 《GeoJournal》1992,26(3):371-379
An accurate estimation of the potential evapotranspiration can be achieved ba applying empirical evapotranspiration coefficients which are determined under Al-Hassa prevailing climatic conditions. Correlation coefficient results indicate that most of the climatological variables have a strong relationship with potential evapotranspiration except wind speed and precipition variables which have a weak relationship. Multiple regression results also indicate that there is a significant effect of some of the climatologiecal variables in the potential evatranspiration and there is no significant effect of the others at the significant level of 0.05. The results of the stepwise regression indicate that evaporation class “A” pan, air temperature, sunshine hours, radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed variables have a significant effect at the significant level of 0.05 on the overall mean monthly potential evapotranspiration of the Blaney-Criddle, Pan Evaporation, and Jensen-Haise, therefore, the equation which has developed for estimating potential evapotranspiration in Al-Hassa is based on these six variables (evaporation class “A” pan, air temperature, sunshine hours, radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed).  相似文献   

15.
The potential impact of climate change on Astragalus gossypinus in Central Iran based on grid map 2.5 arc min was analyzed. A stratified sampling was applied through a geographic information system to pick up 587 sample sites (prevalence 0.39). For each sampling site, the presence or absence of given species together with environmental variables was recorded. Two novel statistical techniques, logistic regression tree (LRT) and nonparametric multiplicative regression (NPMR), were used to examine environmental variables related to the current species distribution. Using these models, maps of current potential distribution and potential distribution for a climatic change scenario (2CO2) were generated. Both statistical techniques produced strong and useful models, but NPMR identified a much smaller subset of relevant predictor variables. The model demonstrated that the occurrence of A. gossypinus is highly probable when the precipitation of the wettest month is between 30 and 50 mm and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter is between ?2 and +4 °C, but much lower outside this range. Under double-CO2 climatic scenario, predicting a moister and slightly warmer climate in Central Iran, A. gossypinus is expected to move north-eastwards with a decreasing area of distribution.  相似文献   

16.
Vegetation and lake-level data from the archaeological site of Tresserve, on the eastern shore of Lake Le Bourget (Savoie, France), are used to provide quantitative estimates of climatic variables over the period 4000–2300 cal BP in the northern French Pre-Alps, and to examine the possible impact of climatic changes on societies of the Bronze and early Iron Ages. The results obtained indicate that phases of higher lake level at 3500–3100 and 2750–2350 cal BP coincided with major climate reversals in the North Atlantic area. In west-central Europe, they were marked by cooler and wetter conditions. These two successive events may have affected ancient agricultural communities in west-central Europe by provoking harvest failures, more particularly due to increasing precipitation during the growing season. However, archaeological data in the region of Franche-Comté (Jura Mountains, eastern France) show a general expansion of population density from the middle Bronze Age to the early Iron Age. This suggests a relative emancipation of proto-historic societies from climatic conditions, probably in relation to the spread of new modes of social and economic organisation.  相似文献   

17.
On the basis of study of fossil plants, the climate in southwestern Siberia in the Early Senonian was reconstructed to be warm temperate humid with the mean annual temperature of about 13°C. The CLAMP analysis (Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program) was applied for the first time to Cretaceous floras of Western Siberia. The comparison results of climatic variables estimated show that the climate in Western Siberia in the Early Senonian was more humid and warmer than in Northeast Asia.  相似文献   

18.
The sea nettle shows variable seasonal infestation in the Chesapeake Bay. Public interest in the medusal population prompted an examination of the effect of climatic, hydrographic, and biological variables on such changes. Visual medusal counts since 1960 were regressed in a stepwise fashion against the suite of variables, to produce an abundance model which allows a reasonable prediction of the forthcoming summer’s infestation. Streamflow in the entire Chesapeake watershed for the months of January through June and the water temperature for May were most important. Lower streamflow apparently provides a salinity regime which supports the sessile stages early in the year and allows the survival and rapid growth of ephyrae in early summer. The water temperatures in May furnishes the trigger for strobilation at a propitious time.  相似文献   

19.
We present an extensive new network of ring-width chronologies, comprising data from 100 sites within the Austrian Eastern Alps, made up of multiple tree species. Principal components analysis and cluster analysis were used to identify five separate high-frequency tree-growth signals from these data. Tree-growth variability at these sites is explained by site altitude and species differences that moderate the effects of the annually varying climatic forcing on tree growth. Recently developed, two-century long gridded climate data sets for the Greater Alpine Region were used to assess the relationship between climate and tree growth. Tree growth at low altitudes is controlled mainly by spring-summer moisture availability. At high altitudes precipitation is no longer a limiting factor and growth is mostly determined by summer temperature. In the intermediate altitudinal range, we did not find any direct relationships with specific climatic variables. High-altitude chronologies suitable for reconstructing past temperatures and low-altitude chronologies suitable for reconstructing past precipitation were identified.  相似文献   

20.
大气环流模式在松花江流域的适用性评价   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
不同GCMs的输出变量在区域上的表现差异较大。以11个统计特征量为基础,构建了基于秩评分的评价方法,分别对比分析了21个GCMs的17个输出变量在松花江流域与ERA-40再分析资料的吻合程度,以秩评分进行了定量评价。结果显示:不同GCMs对高空气象变量的模拟表现与地面气候要素的模拟表现并不一致,IPSL:CM4、GISS:ER、HadCM3和CSIRO:MK30在松花江流域高空气象变量模拟方面表现相对较好,而CSIRO:MK30、CGCM3.1_T63、GFDL:CM21和BCCR:BCM20在地面气候要素的模拟方面表现相对较好。综合评分结果显示,IPSL:CM4、CSIRO:MK30、GISS:ER和BCCR:CM20在松花江流域的综合表现相对较好。  相似文献   

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