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1.
《翁心存日记》是迄今为止发现的记录天气现象最为详细的历史天气日记,保留了难得的19世纪中叶北京的沙尘天气记录。归纳了对历史文献记录中的沙尘天气进行分类的方法,通过《翁心存日记》,重建了19世纪中叶北京沙尘天气情况。分析发现当时北京年平均沙尘日多达31.36天,高于近60年来北京沙尘天气的平均水平。而19世纪中叶的北京沙尘天气中扬沙、浮尘和沙尘暴天气的构成和现代基本相似,年内分布特征也较相似。但19世纪中叶夏季沙尘比例较现代明显偏多46％,而冬季沙尘比例仅为现代比例的75％,这说明古今间沙尘天气的季节分布可能存在较大差异。另外,19世纪的沙尘天气同样存在明显的年际变化,且本地降水是影响年际变化的因素之一。 相似文献
2.
Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations
in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset
of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain
range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance.
The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir
Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003–2004 to 2006–2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest
that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over
different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction
of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather
forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of
the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position
and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast
for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast
model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges
in NW-Himalaya. 相似文献
3.
《Earth》2009,94(3-4):77-84
In this paper, the history of surface weather observations in the United States is reviewed. Local weather observations were first documented in the 17th Century along the East Coast. For many years, the progression of a weather observation from an initial reading to dissemination remained a slow and laborious process. The number of observers remained small and unorganized until agencies including the Surgeon General, Army, and General Land Office began to request regular observations at satellite locations in the 1800s. The Smithsonian was responsible for first organizing a large “network” of volunteer weather observers across the nation. These observers became the foundation for today's Cooperative Observer network. As applications of weather data continued to grow and users required the data with an ever-decreasing latency, automated weather networks saw rapid growth in the later part of the 20th century. Today, the number of weather observations across the U.S. totals in the tens of thousands due largely to privately-owned weather networks and amateur weather observers who submit observations over the internet. 相似文献
4.
近年来随着极端天气/气候事件的频发,应对极端天气/气候事件的要求极其紧迫。目前气象资料对极端天气/气候事件的研究相对较短,由此作者提出利用石笋记录重建历史年际、年代际极端天气/气候事件的构想。通过对目前已有的石笋极端天气/气候事件研究实例分析总结,认为洞穴石笋沉积速率相对较快,石笋中标志性结构构造特征的存在,有利于石笋记录到极端天气/气候事件。同时就目前的研究现状,作者提出建立准确年代标尺、选择生长速率相对较快和存在标志性结构构造特征、能记录到极端气候的石笋,以及提高采样分辨率和与其他记录相互验证等作为石笋极端气候研究的工作要求,同时就文石笋研究极端天气/气候事件提出文石笋可能更加容易记录到极端天气/气候事件的个人新认识。 相似文献
5.
近年来随着极端天气/气候事件的频发,应对极端天气/气候事件的要求极其紧迫。目前气象资料对极端天气/气候事件的研究相对较短,由此作者提出利用石笋记录重建历史年际、年代际极端天气/气候事件的构想。通过对目前已有的石笋极端天气/气候事件研究实例分析总结,认为洞穴石笋沉积速率相对较快,石笋中标志性结构构造特征的存在,有利于石笋记录到极端天气/气候事件。同时就目前的研究现状,作者提出建立准确年代标尺、选择生长速率相对较快和存在标志性结构构造特征、能记录到极端气候的石笋,以及提高采样分辨率和与其他记录相互验证等作为石笋极端气候研究的工作要求,同时就文石笋研究极端天气/气候事件提出文石笋可能更加容易记录到极端天气/气候事件的个人新认识。 相似文献
6.
Progress in Researches on Ensemble Forecasting of Extreme Weather Based on Numerical Models 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Under the background of climate change, extreme weather events (e.g., heavy rainfall, heat wave, and cold damage) in China have been occurring more frequently with an increasing trend of induced meteorological disasters. Therefore, it is of great importance to carry out research on forecasting of extreme weather. This paper systematically reviewed the primary methodology of extreme weather forecast, current status in development of ensemble weather forecasting based on numerical models and their applications to forecast of extreme weather, as well as progress in approaches for correcting ensemble probabilistic forecast. Nowadays, the forecasting of extreme weather has been generally dominated by methodology using dynamical models. That is to say, the dynamical forecasting methods based on ensemble probabilistic forecast information have become prevailing in current operational extreme weather forecast worldwide. It can be clearly found that the current major directions of research and development in this field are the application of ensemble forecasts based on numerical models to forecasting of extreme weather, and its improvement through bias correction of ensemble probabilistic forecast. Based on a relatively comprehensive review in this paper, some suggestions with respect to development of extreme weather forecast in future were further given in terms of the issues of how to propose effective approaches on improving level of identification and forecasting of extreme events. 相似文献
7.
Leiming Ma 《地球科学进展》1986,35(6):551-560
Numerical weather prediction, which is the major basis of current weather forecast, has some shortcomings, such as the understanding of the law of atmospheric motion, the assimilation and application of observation data, the expression of model physics, etc., leading to the forecast error of weather. The rapid development of artificial intelligence technology in recent years provides a new possibility for the advancement and innovation of weather forecast. In this paper, the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the current situation of the application of artificial intelligence technology to weather forecast and the future development trend are mainly described to account for this possibility. After that, the idea for development of weather forecast technology based on the integration of artificial intelligence and numerical forecast is put forward. Particularly, this study stresses that, in order to advance the AI algorithm of weather forecast in the future, it is requested to focus on the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of atmospheric motion leading to the uncertainty of forecast. Starting from the essence of mathematics and physics, we need to realize the hybrid modeling of mathematics and physics, not only to establish the framework of input-output mapping, but also to provide solutions to the bottleneck problems of weather forecast. 相似文献
8.
Chandra Sagarika Kumar Praveen Siingh Devendraa Roy I. Victor N. Jeni Kamra A. K. 《Natural Hazards》2022,110(1):57-68
Physical phenomena observed before strong earthquakes have been reported for centuries. Precursor signals, which include radon anomalies, electrical signals, water level changes and ground lights near the epicenter, can all be used for earthquake prediction. Anomalous negative signals observed by ground-based atmospheric electric field instruments under fair weather conditions constitute a novel earthquake prediction approach. In theory, the abnormal radiation of heat before an earthquake produces fair weather around the epicenter. To determine the near-epicenter weather conditions prior to an earthquake, 81 global earthquake events with magnitudes of 6 or above from 2008 to 2021 were collected. According to Harrison's fair weather criteria, in 81.48% of all statistical cases, the weather was fair 6 h before the earthquake; in 62.96% of all cases, the weather was fair 24 h before the event. Moreover, most of these cases without fair weather several hours before the earthquake were near the sea. Among the 37 inland earthquakes, 86.49% were preceded by 6 h of fair weather, and 70.27% were preceded by fair weather for 24 h. We conclude that the weather near the epicenter might be fair for several hours before a strong earthquake, especially for inland events.
相似文献9.
H N Bhalme R S Reddy D A Mooley Bh V Ramana Murty 《Journal of Earth System Science》1981,90(3):245-262
The literature on influences of solar activity on the Indian weather and climate is reviewed since the discovery of sunspot cycle. Fluctuations in solar activity are undoubtedly a factor affecting weather and climate. Although the results of some of the studies are conflicting, Indian weather and climate is, in general, inversely related to sunspots. However, the areal extent of floods in India seems to expand and contract in phase with the Hale double sunspot cycle, suggesting that the flood rhythm is in some manner controlled by long-term solar activity related to solar magnetic effects. All the evidences of solar influences on weather and climate may have practical implications in improving long-range forecasting of weather and climate, once the physical coupling mechanisms and their modification by other factors are clearly understood. Some of the promising plausible physical mechanisms for explaining solar effects on weather and climate are also discussed. 相似文献
10.
汛期地质灾害气象预报预警工作是一项系统工程,应建立完善的省级国土、气象专门管理机构——地质灾害气象预警中心。本文介绍了河南省汛期地质灾害气象预报预警系统的组织结构及管理体系、技术支持、硬件设施等3个层面。同时介绍了预报级别划分及预报信息发布方式。 相似文献
11.
依据甘肃兰州市1955-2010年沙尘暴、 浮尘天气事件年变化资料, 划分年强度分级, 应用Markov模型对其不同强度发生概率进行分析, 在此基础上预测和检验了2011年兰州沙尘暴浮尘天气事件的发生概率.结果显示: 2011年沙尘暴发生的特强年、 强烈年、 强发生年、 一般发生年和少发年的概率为,而事实上2011年发生沙尘暴0次,属于少发年, 符合预测结果; 2011年浮尘天气发生的特强年、 强烈年、 强发生年、 一般发生年和少发年的概率为,而事实上2011年发生浮尘9次,介于平常年和少发年范围, 符合预测结果.随着时间序列的延长, Markov模型可成为短期沙尘暴浮尘天气变化预测的有效途径. 相似文献
12.
Stanley A. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》2007,43(3):295-301
A market place designed to provide a variety of weather-sensitive institutions with products for dealing with their risks
from weather-climate hazards has been developing in recent years. Shifts in demographics, growing population, and greater
wealth across the U.S., coupled with de-regulation of utilities and expansion of global economics, have increased corporate
vulnerability to weather/climate extremes. Availability of long-term quality climate data and new technologies have allowed
development of weather-risk products. One widely used by electric-gas utilities is weather derivatives. These allow a utility
to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold and for a price paid to a provider, to get financial payments
if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather risk models. These
define the potential risks of severe weather losses across a region where little historical insured loss data exists. Firms
develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and
physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. These various endeavors
of the new weather market exhibit the potential for dealing with shifts in weather risks due to a change in climate. 相似文献
13.
利用最小二乘支持向量机(LS-SVM)方法,建立了基于天气预报的参考作物腾发量(ET0)的预测模型.对广利灌区1997~2006年逐日气象信息中的天气类型和风速等级进行量化后,以不同天气预报信息作为输入量,建立10种验证方案,对2007年的逐日ET0进行预测.经验证,方案1~方案7精度均令人满意,其中方案1精度最高.方案1的输入量为气温、天气类型、风速等级3项的预测值,该方案的模型预测值与计算值的统计参数分别为:均方根偏差ERMS为0.5182 mm,相对偏差ER为0.1878,决定系数R2为0.864 8,认同系数IA为0.966 9,回归系数RC为0.9867;方案7精度亦较好,且以上指标统计参数依次为0.6576 mm、0.2332、0.986 6、0.774 7及0.986 6,该方案输入量只有气温项,实用性很强. 相似文献
14.
关于平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的研究进展 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
人们传统上认为大气平流层很少能对对流层产生重要影响,但是,最近几年的观测研究表明这种自上而下的影响是显著的和非常重要的,特别地,近几年关于北极涛动的研究极大推动了这一问题的研究进展。这方面的研究发现平流层异常可以对对流层天气系统产生重要影响,也就是冬季平流层北极涛动（AO）的负异常可以诱发中高纬度地区寒潮天气,而AO的正异常则导致中高纬度地区的温暖晴朗天气。由于观测分析表明平流层AO的异常信号总是领先对流层AO异常,一些学者甚至建议冬季北半球平流层的异常信号可以作为预报对流层天气变化的先行指标,并可以把对流层天气预报的时限提高到3个星期以上。综述这一领域在最近几年的研究进展、阐述平流层异常影响对流层天气系统的物理机制和总结各种不同的学术观点,并对将来研究中应注意的问题提出了建议。 相似文献
15.
16.
《Geoforum》2017
Weather modification operations are the intentional alteration of weather and cloud water conditions using technologies such as cloud seeding. Post-socialist authoritarian China is the world’s leading user of state power for rainfall enhancement through weather modification, with diverse purposes including agriculture production, water security, ecological preservation, and mega events. We argue that weather modification in China needs to be understood as a facet of ecological modernization, in which the authoritarian state believes that precipitation can be controlled through the use of advanced technologies, thus transforming clouds into a kind of cloud water resource. Two political dimensions are highlighted to understand precipitation control and utilization of cloud water: the first is a new ideological politics of the changing human-weather relationship from ‘adaptation to the weather’ to ‘taming the weather”; the second is volume politics that presents unique characteristics of airborne water as opposed to terrestrial and groundwater. 相似文献
17.
Krisanadej Jaroensutasinee Wittaya Pheera Mullica Jaroensutasinee 《Earth Science Informatics》2014,7(3):205-213
As large quantities of physical data are always collected for Ecoinformatics research, it is difficult for them to be cleaned, shared, visualized, and analyzed by research collaborators. To resolve this difficulty, this study presents online weather data analysis and visualization cyber-infrastructures consisting of (1) online weather data analysis and visualization tools and (2) near real-time online weather data portal. Firstly, these online tools at www.twibl.org/weather provide data sharing in three web pages: information on instruments and site; data access protected by simple password security; data analysis and visualization services so-called “Ecoinfows”. Secondly, the near real-time online weather data portal for visualizing and forecasting weather data from cloud storage of many automatic weather stations is online at www.twibl.org/aaportal. To overcome speed and accessibility problems, we developed these tools with many technologies - i.e. cloud computing, online computing XML (webMathematica), and binary access data conversion. 相似文献
18.
In previous research, winter weather conditions like precipitation and cold were recognized as factors affecting the change in traffic volume, and a simulation has been conducted to model the effect of weather factor on variations in traffic flow. A winter weather hazard model considering natural chronic hazards in the winter season has been proposed. To achieve this purpose, this research formulated a dummy variable winter weather traffic model while considering explanatory variables such as expected daily volume, snowfall, and temperature. This model was derived using six-year traffic data that were collected on a weigh-in-motion site on Highway 44, in Alberta, Canada. Precipitation and cold data collected from a weather station were linked with traffic data to model traffic variations caused by weather factors. The performance of the model, on the ground of temporal transferability and model specification, was tested using data from different years. The temporal transferability test confirmed that the model can be successfully applied regardless of the year. It was also revealed that each vehicle class prefers a different model specification in estimating correct traffic volume.
相似文献19.
陆面作为大气运动的下边界,通过动量、热量及物质交换与大气发生复杂的相互作用。陆面过程被认为是影响天气气候的关键过程之一。关于陆面过程对气候的影响已经开展了大量较为深入的研究,相比之下,针对陆面过程对天气的影响研究并没有受到足够的重视。近年来,陆面过程与天气研究也开始受到了越来越多的关注。本文从陆面基本要素、下垫面构成、陆面诱发的局地环流3个方面,回顾了土壤湿度、地形、土地利用、山谷-平原环流等要素和过程对强对流、暴雨、台风、高温热浪等天气事件影响研究的相关进展,以期为今后的研究提供参考。需要指出,尽管此方面的研究已取得了一定进展,但关于陆面过程对天气,尤其是极端(高影响)天气的影响及机制还有待深入研究,进而从陆面过程的角度来理解重要天气形成、发生和发展的机理,从而为数值模式发展和天气预报业务提供更有力的科学支撑。 相似文献
20.
南京市强降水天气长期动态及变异性规律 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
基于南京市1951～2016年汛期(6～9月)各月降水资料,分析研究区强降水天气的长期动态及变异性规律。长期动态结果表明,近66年来南京市强降水天气发生频率显著增加,平均每10年增加0.31次;不同规模强降水中,暴雨、大暴雨天气发生频率均呈增加趋势,其中暴雨天气呈显著增加。多年(7a、10a、15a)月际排序值滑动标准差均通过置信度99%显著性检验,强降水天气变异性呈显著下降趋势;强降水天气汛期盛行月份趋于集中(7月),月间格局趋于稳定,与多年的月际排序值滑动标准差得出强降水天气变异性呈下降趋势的结论相吻合。 相似文献