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1.
Niels Schütze Sebastian Kloss Franz Lennartz Ahmed Al Bakri Gerd H. Schmitz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(5):1511-1521
In this contribution, we introduce a stochastic framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water
supply in irrigation. This consists of (1) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change on the basis
of IPCC scenarios, (2) a tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water
supply, (3) a mechanistic model for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner, and (4) a kernel density
estimator for estimating stochastic productivity, profit, and demand functions by a nonparametric method. As a result of several
simulation/optimization runs within the framework, we present stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different
crops which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield
for specific crops and specific agricultural areas. A case study for an agricultural area in the Al Batinah region of the
Sultanate of Oman is used to illustrate these methodologies. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the
vulnerability of the agro-ecological system are discussed. 相似文献
2.
Consolidating measurement data for use by data models or in inter-comparison studies frequently requires transforming the data onto a common grid. Standard methods for interpolating multidimensional data are often not appropriate for data with non-homogenous dimensionality, and are hard to implement in a consistent manner for different datastreams. These challenges are increased when dealing with the automated procedures necessary for use with continuous, operational datastreams. In this paper we introduce a method of applying a series of one-dimensional transformations to merge data onto a common grid, examine the challenges of ensuring consistent application of data consolidation methods, present a framework for addressing those challenges, and describe the implementation of such a framework for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. 相似文献
3.
Making use of the homogenization method for periodic media, developed in the context of elastoplasticity, a simplified constitutive law is proposed for a stone column-reinforced soil, regarded as a homogeneous but anisotropic medium. The closed-form expressions derived for such a constitutive law allow for its implementation into a f.e.m-based numerical procedure. The computational code so obtained is then applied to simulating the response of a foundation soil reinforced by a group of floating columns, expressed in terms of load–settlement curves drawn up to the ultimate bearing capacity. 相似文献
4.
初论地质异常数字找矿模型 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
数字找矿模型是实施数字找矿工程的强有力工具.根据地质异常致矿原理初步论述了数字找矿模型的理论基础; 地质、地球化学、地球物理和遥感信息的特征及其找矿功能; 致矿信息提取、关联、转换与综合以及地质异常数字找矿模型的建立方法.事实上致矿信息提取与综合的过程亦是数字找矿模型建立的过程. 相似文献
5.
An analytical model for the constant-head pumping test is developed for a partially penetrating well that has a finite thickness skin, and intersects a single vertical fracture. In the model, the fracture is fully confined and flow occurs only in the fracture. The model is developed using Laplace transform and finite Fourier transform methods. The model is to be used for analysing well test data from vertically fractured media and for verifying numerical models. Dimensionless curves are used to study the effects of a finite thickness skin and a partially penetrating wellbore. In the presence of a finite thickness skin, or a partially penetrating wellbore, a typical flow response for the constant-head pumping test has three distinct periods of flow corresponding to small-, intermediate- and large-time. Small- and large-time approximations are presented for the model. For tests where the wellbore is fully penetrating, or the partial penetration ratio is known, these approximations can be used to analyse field data. 相似文献
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8.
Guocheng Pan 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(5):603-631
This paper presents a regionalized method for the estimation of a favorability function through generalization of all relevant variables (explanatory and target) into random functions. The new method allows the use of cross-covariance functions in addition to ordinary covariances for extracting spatial joint information, which is virtually overlooked in the conventional analyses. The optimal weights for a favorability equation are derived from solving a generalized eigen-system established by the maximization of covariances between a favorability function and the principal components of a set of pre-selected target variables. Various correlation coefficients may be computed to assist in interpretation of the favorability estimates. Both favorability functions and correlation coefficients may be estimated for a point or a block. The regionalized favorability theory can be compared to cokriging in that both use the sample-sample covariances to account for the sample-sample relations and the point-sample covariances to account for the point-sample configurations. The new technique is demonstrated on a test case study, which involves the integration of geochemical, airborne-geophysical, and structural data sets for the target selection of hydrothermal gold-silver deposits. 相似文献
9.
Present and future demand for natural resources has received increasing interest in local planning in Norway. Reliable geological data are a precondition for responsible management of these resources.
Available geological material, of all types, should be evaluated and compiled selectively in a form adapted for use by local planners not versed in the geosciences.
The Royal Norwegian Ministry for the Environment has initiated a project to establish a modelresource management plan in Ullensaker commune. The Geological Survey of Norway has developed a system for the presentation of geological data to be used for the management of geological resources like sand, gravel, rock aggregate and groundwater within Ullensaker commune. 相似文献
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Although first-order reliability method is a common procedure for estimating failure probability, the formulas derived for bimodal bounds of system failure probability have not been widely used as expected in present reliability analyses. The reluctance for applying these formulas in practice may be partly due to the impression that the procedures to implement the system reliability theory are tedious. Among the methods for system reliability analysis, the approach suggested in Ditlevsen 1979 is considered here because it is a natural extension of the first-order reliability method commonly used for failure probability estimation corresponding to a single failure mode, and it can often provide reasonably narrow failure probability bounds. To facilitate wider practical application, this paper provides a short program code in the ubiquitous Excel spreadsheet platform for efficiently calculating the bounds for system failure probability. The procedure is illustrated for a semi-gravity retaining wall with two failure modes, a soil slope with two and eight failure modes, and a loaded beam with three failure modes. In addition, simple equations are provided to relate the correlated but unrotated equivalent standard normals of the Low and Tang 2007 FORM procedure with the uncorrelated but rotated equivalent standard normals of the classical FORM procedure. Also demonstrated are the need for investigating different permutations of failure modes in order to get the narrowest bounds for system failure probability, and the use of SORM reliability index for system reliability bounds in a case where the curvature of the limit state surface cannot be neglected. 相似文献
12.
Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276
The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring
system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks
for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics,
which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the
financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for
measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements.
This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement,
GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system
for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone
developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify
the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty
due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered
by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion
is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction.
A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective
validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This
proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises
to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer. 相似文献
13.
T. M. Rachkovskaya 《Astronomy Reports》2000,44(4):227-234
Using high-resolution spectra, we have determined the abundances of carbon (logε(C)), nitrogen (logε(N)), oxygen (logε(O)), silicon (logε(Si)), sulphur (logε(S)), and some other elements for three δ Scuti stars. Logε(C) for all three stars and logε(N) for δ Sct and HD 127986 are close to the solar values, while there appears to be a slight (0.15 dex) nitrogen deficiency for 14 Aur. The logε(O) values correspond to a 0.30-dex deficiency for 14 Aur and δ Sct and a 0.20-dex deficiency for HD 127986. The values of logε(Si) for the three stars are close to solar, and the logε(S) values indicate a slight deficiency (0.10 dex) for 14 Aur and HD 127986 and a 0.20-dex excess for δ Sct. Comparison of the elemental abundances for seven δ Scuti stars with those for Am stars shows that the mean deficiencies of C, N, and O are smaller for pulsating δ Scuti stars than for Am stars with similar effective temperatures. The sulphur abundances are virtually the same for both types of stars. 相似文献
14.
J. J. Bezuidenhout D. Liebenberg S. Claassens L. Van Rensburg 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(7):3267-3275
Asbestos mining has left a legacy of pollution in former mining areas that continues to negatively affect both the environment and local communities. In 2007, the Rehabilitation Prioritisation Index was developed as a scientific tool to indicate the preferred sequence for mine site rehabilitation and served as a departure point for the present investigation in which a database for the rehabilitation success of asbestos sites was developed. Broad-based quantitative and qualitative data, typically used for monitoring rehabilitation success, including amongst others, soil cover depth, physical and chemical soil properties, microbial activity, vegetation properties and small mammal abundance were analysed using multivariate statistics, specifically a redundancy analysis. The most representative model was subsequently selected for the classification of the rehabilitated sites. The multivariate analysis revealed those factors typically associated with rehabilitation success or failure, as well as essentials to be addressed. The feasibility of development of a rule set for rehabilitated site classification was firstly investigated using neural networks which also assisted in the selection of significant parameters. Results from the neural network approach were then used to guide parameter selection for the evolutionary algorithm software. The coordinate scores for the first two axes of the redundancy analysis served as targets for the evolutionary algorithms. Overall, a targeting match of 71 % for the first axis coordinates and 38 % for the second axis coordinates were obtained. Contributing parameters for the rule set included: Cl, K, pH, percentage organic carbon, Zn, NH4 and SO4 content of the sites. 相似文献
15.
Understanding a quarry in terms of its potential for breakwater construction materials presents a special challenge for the engineering geologist. Unlike blasting in aggregates and mining operations, optimisation of the extraction process has a focus on the potential for production of large blocks for armourstone. These blocks weighing many tonnes are used for cover layers to resist wave action. The quarry-run is used for breakwater core. If the quarry has been developed as a source of materials dedicated to a breakwater construction project, the success of the project depends greatly on the blasting and production of rock sizes that are required and the avoidance of leaving a massive quantity of unused materials behind in the quarry after project completion. Prediction of in-situ block sizes such as from joint spacing data, provides the most critical input for the prediction of the blast pile block size distribution (BBSD), which in turn is a vital early design input if the constructed breakwater is to be economical as well as effective.This paper is part of a series of papers that introduces the coastal engineering motivation for this work on engineering geology, giving reasons why the prediction of the fragmentation curve of the blast products in a dedicated quarry is of such economic importance for breakwater projects. The first step towards blasted block size distribution (BBSD) prediction is the prediction of the in-situ block sized distribution (IBSD), the main subject of this paper. Drawing together research methods from the 1990s and the rock mechanics principles of discontinuity analysis, a practical step by step methodology for IBSD assessment that includes approaches that are not reliant on specialised computer software is presented. Continuing on the practical theme, a new extension of the volumetric joint count approach is suggested for IBSD prediction for the case when sparse borehole data is all that is available. A case study of IBSD assessment and the associated BBSD and blast assessment is presented from a Carboniferous limestone quarry. For clarity, details of blast design and yield curve prediction that are recommended for use in the context of armourstone production, have been presented in a companion paper. The Rosin-Rammler equation is used as an example form for the BBSD prediction of a dedicated quarry and the potential for breakwater project optimisation is illustrated. The final section sets out a method for directly comparing yield curves together with the demand for materials set by the breakwater design. On the same plot, sizes where there is a relative shortfall in production can be identified. The dependence of effective breakwater design on accurate quarry yield prediction and quarry blasting performance is discussed. 相似文献
16.
The objectives of the interdisciplinary pilot project "Development of a municipal environmental information system" in Hannover
encompassed the development, modification and improvement of data acquisition methods and methods for describing the environment
on the basis of this data, as well as methods for evaluating the data as a basis for measures affecting the environment taken
by the community.
The subproject "Urban Soils" had the following two main objectives: (i) development of a data acquisition method for soils
in municipal areas and a method for evaluating this data, and (ii) development of methods for making this information available
to local government in the form of a "soil information system" for urban areas.
To achieve these objectives, the following work was carried out: (1) a factor analysis to determine which factors affect the
soil in an urban area; (2) study of methods for mapping soils in cities; (3) development of a concept for a soil information
system; and (4) evaluation of environmental problems of the municipality using the soil information system.
Data acquisition was done in two steps: First, soil-relevant data was selected, standardized, digitized and stored in an alphanumeric
and a graphic database for a factor analysis. By intersection of the eight information levels, the factors affecting the soil
were determined for the city of Hannover (200 km2). To test the hypothesis that the results for one site can be transferred to another site with the same combination of factors,
43 test sites typical of urban land use were selected. These test sites were mapped in a way to fulfill geostatistical requirements;
physical and chemical analyses of the soils were made. A prognosis of soil distribution and properties was made on the basis
of the factor analysis. and compared with the actual conditions.
Concurrent with the pedological research, a prototype soil information system was developed. The system consists of databases,
a methodbase, a geometrical tool, and a control system. Alphanumeric data is stored in a relational database, the geometric
data in ISAM files. Methods for determining soil parameter values were selected and tested for their applicability.
Using the pedological data and the soil information system, information can be obtained about soil conditions in Hannover
as well as about soil processes (e.g. infiltration rates) and interaction with the atmosphere, hydrosphere, etc. This information
can be obtained in the form of thematic maps and statistical representations, which can be used by decision-makers at the
municipal level.
Received: 3 September 1994 · Accepted: 19 December 1995 相似文献
17.
In an earlier paper (1978), Gottfried presented a method for combining distribution data for float-sink coal-cleaning devices into a single generalized distribution curve which, for a given device and feed size, is independent of specific gravity of separation. A non-linear, exponential-type equation was utilized to represent the generalized distribution curve, along with the corresponding generalized probable error. Distribution data for six common coal-cleaning devices have previously been treated by this method.This paper is an extension of two previous studies (Gottfried, 1978, 1980). The method described above is applied to three different float-sink coal-cleaning devices: Baum jig (replacing previously reported results), Batac jig and Dynawhirlpool separator. Results for the Baum jig and Batac jig reflect a two-stage separation process, with a set of generalized distribution curves obtained for each stage and another set for the overall separation. Several different feed size fractions are given for each vessel. 相似文献
18.
In this paper, numerical methods for flow simulation in the well vicinity are discussed. Flux truncation errors are analyzed on gridblocks near the well. Due to the singularity of the well, standard numerical schemes are not efficient for near well flow simulations. To improve simulation accuracy, a new methodology, using a change of coordinates to make near well pressure linear, is presented for the singularity modelling. Based on this new approach, two numerical schemes, a two-point flux approximation scheme and a multi-point one, are proposed. These schemes are accurate for the near well modelling and are suitable for any kinds of gridblocks. 相似文献
19.
The results are presented of a survey of mercury concentrations in various parts of the Icelandic environment. Values for air and gas samples include: <0.03 μg/m3 for Reykjavík, 15–20 km away from a hydrothermal area; 1–3 μg/m3 for air in a hydrothermal area near Lake Mývatn; 12–30 μg/m3 for air in Heimaey during the 1973 eruption; and 16 μg/m3 for a sample of fumarole gas. Values for fresh igneous rocks, of various compositions, extrusive (subaerial), subaqueous (up to 3000 m depth), and intrusive, range between 2 and 9 ppb. Highest values obtained for uncontaminated samples are 37 ppb for a pyrite-bearing zone in a hydrothermal drill hole, and 125 ppb for a volcanic sublimate. The sources of the mercury levels observed are briefly discussed. 相似文献
20.
This paper deals with the design of a system for decisional support dedicated to an anti-hail system. It is proposed a specific system for Romania anti-hail network, which completes the existing systems with specific information in order to identify the best solutions for both coordination and launch. The main topics refer to the system structure, information handled in the system and reconstruction of a signal based on Bayes criterion. The system comprises two main components: a subsystem of launch decision and a subsystem for assisting the launch decision. In order to achieve this system, the following important issues are considered: the use of communication via GPRS, monitoring the parameters throughout all operating period, log-values, status and alarms, operator actions logs, friendly graphical interface and the generation of tabular and graphical reports for any period. The system enables an increased efficiency by shortening the time for action, a good organization and a high degree of security. 相似文献