共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes,floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Elisabeth Krausmann Elisabetta Renni Michela Campedel Valerio Cozzani 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(1):285-300
Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents
can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the
dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases
were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event
impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived.
The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning,
calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent
on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence
of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are
water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters.
The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed
databases. 相似文献
2.
Kirsten Halsnæs Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen Per Skougaard Kaspersen 《Natural Hazards》2018,94(1):261-278
Least developed countries are generally regarded as particularly sensitive to climate change due to among other vulnerable locations and low adaptation capabilities. In the present study, we address climate change hazards in least developed countries by presenting a methodological framework, which is suitable for the estimation damage costs as a function of risk aversion, equality, income distribution and climate scenario using state-of-the-art climate model projections. As a case study, the methodology is applied to study severe storms in Cambodia based on two future climate scenarios and data on historical damages from storm events, which are used as a proxy in performing a sensitivity analysis on all input parameters. For the assumptions and parameter ranges used here, the study shows a high sensitivity to the income distribution (reflected by discount rates) and risk aversion and smaller effects from equality measures and extreme wind climate scenario. We emphasize that the assumptions on risk aversion reflecting consumption smoothing possibilities of low-income households clearly depicts that climate risks can be particularly high as a consequence of poverty and therefore recommend that context-specific vulnerabilities and equity concerns in climate risk studies should be included when making assessments for least developed countries. 相似文献
3.
Based on the classification results of marine structure accidents induced by sea ice, the risk assessment index system of sea ice disasters was established. The possibility coefficient of risks was proposed based on risk factors of sea ice disasters, including sea ice conditions, ice risk status, ice resistance in the design phase, the current defense ability in the operation phase, and management behaviors in the freezing period. The severity index should be determined according to the affected scope, the distribution of affected personnel, and the monitoring ability in emergency. According to the case study and expert evaluation method, the scores and levels of sea ice disaster risk assessment indices were determined. Finally, the sea ice disaster risks of two offshore oil platforms and a coastal nuclear power plant were assessed.
相似文献4.
In this study, evacuees from the path of Hurricane Gustav were surveyed to determine which meteorological hazards most influenced
their decision to leave. Surveys were conducted along two major evacuation routes on August 30 and 31, 2008, to collect time-sensitive
data on individual evacuation decisions related to the meteorological hazards from Hurricane Gustav. The regions of New Orleans,
Houma, and Lafayette were represented most frequently, as determined by zip code data collected from the surveys. Responses
were evaluated first by meteorological hazard for the entire dataset and then by three-digit zip code region. Overall, storm
surge was the most important meteorological variable, followed by the size of the storm, wind, rain, and tornadoes. When separated
into three-digit zip code regions, analyses revealed evacuees from in and around New Orleans were driven to evacuate as a
result of the perceived threat from storm surge and storm size; residents in the Houma, Louisiana region were motivated to
leave due to the threat from storm surge; and Lafayette and the surrounding areas were most-concerned with the threats posed
by hurricane-force winds. Given the forecast track and intensity, survey respondents understood the meteorological hazards
from Gustav and were motivated to leave based on personal evaluations of risk associated with the storm. 相似文献
5.
Kerry Emanuel 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(2):779-796
Robust estimates of tropical cyclone risk can be made using large sets of storm events synthesized from historical data or from physics-based algorithms. While storm tracks can be synthesized very rapidly from statistical algorithms or simple dynamical models (such as the beta-and-advection model), estimation of storm intensity by using full-physics models is generally too expensive to be practical. Although purely statistical intensity algorithms are fast, they may not be general enough to encompass the effects of natural or anthropogenic climate change. Here we present a fast, physically motivated intensity algorithm consisting of two coupled ordinary differential equations predicting the evolution of a wind speed and an inner core moisture variable. The algorithm includes the effects of ocean coupling and environmental wind shear but does not explicitly simulate spatial structure, which must be handled parametrically. We evaluate this algorithm by using it to simulate several historical events and by comparing a risk analysis based on it to an existing method for assessing long-term tropical cyclone risk. For simulations based on the recent climate, the two techniques perform comparably well, though the new technique does better with interannual variability in the Atlantic. Compared to the existing method, the new method produces a smaller increase in global tropical cyclone frequency in response to global warming, but a comparable increase in power dissipation. 相似文献
6.
Indu Jain P. Chittibabu Neetu Agnihotri S. K. Dube P. C. Sinha A. D. Rao 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(1):71-82
Coastal flooding induced by storm surges associated with tropical cyclones is one of the greatest natural hazards sometimes
even surpassing earthquakes. Although the frequency of tropical cyclones in the Indian seas is not high, the coastal region
of India, Bangladesh and Myanmar suffer most in terms of life and property caused by the surges. Therefore, a location-specific
storm surge prediction model for the coastal regions of Myanmar has been developed to carry out simulations of the 1975 Pathein,
1982 Gwa, 1992 Sandoway and 1994 Sittwe cyclones. The analysis area of the model covers from 8° N to 23° N and 90° E to 100° E.
A uniform grid distance of about 9 km is taken along latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The coastal boundaries in the
model are represented by orthogonal straight line segments. Using this model, numerical experiments are performed to simulate
the storm surge heights associated with past severe cyclonic storms which struck the coastal regions of Myanmar. The model
results are in agreement with the limited available surge estimates and observations. 相似文献
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9.
Rapid analysis of risk assessment using developed simulation of chemical industrial accidents software package 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
M. El Harbawi Ph.D. S. Mustapha Ph.D. T. S. Y. Choong Ph.D. S. Abdul Rashid Ph.D. S. A. S. A. Kadir Ph.D. Z. Abdul Rashid M.Sc. 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2008,5(1):53-64
The environmental consequences are defined as consequences of accidental release of hazardous substances to the natural environment. This release can lead to many hazards depending on the material stored. The consequences of these hazards to the environment are widespread and have significant importance to human communities living in the surroundings. The mathematical models are extremely useful tools to predict the impacts of chemical process accidents. The objective of this paper is to develop a software package for accident simulation and damage potential estimation. The software is coded in visual basic and is compatible with windows working environments. The software is called Simulation of chemical industrial accident. This application is a comprehensive software package which can be integrated with geographical information system to predict and display the consequence of chemical hazards. The software is a user-friendly and effective tool for evaluating the consequences of major chemical accidents, process decision making for land-use planning, namely locating suitable hazardous installations, hazardous waste disposal areas and emergency response plan. 相似文献
10.
The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta. 相似文献
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12.
In the context of natural hazard-related risk analyses, different concepts and comprehensions of the term risk exist. These differences are mostly subjected to the perceptions and historical backgrounds of the different scientific disciplines and results in a multitude of methodological concepts to analyse risk. The target-oriented selection and application of these concepts depend on the specific research object which is generally closely connected to the stakeholders’ interests. An obvious characteristic of the different conceptualizations is the immanent various comprehensions of vulnerability. As risk analyses from a natural scientific-technical background aim at estimating potential expositions and consequences of natural hazard events, the results can provide an appropriate decision basis for risk management strategies. Thereby, beside the preferably addressed gravitative and hydrological hazards, seismo-tectonical and especially meteorological hazard processes have been rarely considered within multi-risk analyses in an Alpine context. Hence, their comparative grading in an overall context of natural hazard risks is not quantitatively possible. The present paper focuses on both (1) the different concepts of the natural hazard risk and especially their specific expressions in the context of vulnerability and (2) the exemplary application of the natural scientific-technical risk concepts to analyse potential extreme storm losses in the Austrian Province of Tyrol. Following the corresponding general risk concept, the case study first defines the hazard potential, second estimates the exposures and damage potentials on the basis of an existing database of the stock of elements and values, and third analyses the so-called Extreme Scenario Losses (ESL) considering the structural vulnerability of the potentially affected elements at risk. Thereby, it can be shown that extreme storm events can induce losses solely to buildings and inventory in the range of EUR 100–150 million in Tyrol. However, in an overall context of potential extreme natural hazard events, the storm risk can be classified with a moderate risk potential in this province. 相似文献
13.
Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the
boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone
areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and
increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still
treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific
natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the
current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies
aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with
fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial
units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing
them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The
method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard
maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical
territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable
maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban
systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as
2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major
accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core. 相似文献
14.
M. B. Danard M. C. Rasmussen T. S. Murty R. F. Henry Z. Kowalik S. Venkatesh 《Natural Hazards》1984,2(2):153-171
Storm surges in the Beaufort Sea present a severe problem for navigation as well as for offshore oil drilling activities. Influence of ice cover on storm surges in the Beaufort Sea is examined making use of a numerical model as well as a set of observations.The automated shallow-water model of Henry has been modified to incorporate ice cover and is adapted to the Beaufort Sea. The leading edge of the permanent ice is calculated from the loci of identifiable points. Generalized similarity theory is employed to compute wind stresses. Simulations are made using model-predicted ice concentrations and observed ice concentrations. Ice motion is relatively small in units of model grid distance (approximately 18 km) during surges. Spherical effects are important and should be included in future adaptations of the model. Comparison of the computed surges with observed surges for eight different events showed reasonable agreement. 相似文献
15.
M. B. Danard M. C. Rasmussen T. S. Murty R. F. Henry Z. Kowalik S. Venkatesh 《Natural Hazards》1989,2(2):153-171
Storm surges in the Beaufort Sea present a severe problem for navigation as well as for offshore oil drilling activities. Influence of ice cover on storm surges in the Beaufort Sea is examined making use of a numerical model as well as a set of observations. The automated shallow-water model of Henry has been modified to incorporate ice cover and is adapted to the Beaufort Sea. The leading edge of the permanent ice is calculated from the loci of identifiable points. Generalized similarity theory is employed to compute wind stresses. Simulations are made using model-predicted ice concentrations and observed ice concentrations. Ice motion is relatively small in units of model grid distance (approximately 18 km) during surges. Spherical effects are important and should be included in future adaptations of the model. Comparison of the computed surges with observed surges for eight different events showed reasonable agreement. 相似文献
16.
Natural Hazards - Nuclear power plants in France are designed to withstand natural hazards. Nevertheless, some exceptional storm surges, considered as outliers, are not properly addressed by... 相似文献
17.
车载钻机是矿山事故地面钻孔救援的核心装备,在国内外历次成功救援中发挥了重要作用,给进系统是车载钻机的主要执行机构,使用过程中暴露出长工作行程制约整机通过性、定位轮系维护困难、双油缸运动同步性不强、动力头偏载引起导轨磨损、液压表显示起拔力延时等问题。研制的ZMK5550TZJF50/120型救援车载钻机采用基于油缸—钢丝绳倍速传动机构的伸缩桅杆式结构,实现了长工作行程和短运输尺寸;设计快换式轮系、钢丝绳防扭转张紧系统,解决一二级给进机身的辅助定位系统安全保护和维护困难的难题;采用给进系统油路同步补偿和先导控制技术,解决给进装置双油缸同步的难题;研发抽屉式调平体和测力销轴结构,实现动力头钻进过程中自平衡式调节及起拔力监测。经过静态、模态分析、应变测试和现场工业性应用,给进系统最大起拔力达1 205 kN,能够有效处理大直径救援井施工过程中卡钻、埋钻等孔内事故,配合动力头、钻杆加卸系统,具有快速起下钻具功能,可大幅度提高倒杆效率,单根起下钻效率小于3 min/根。研究结果表明:救援车载钻机伸缩桅杆式给进装置运输尺寸短,钻机机动性强,道路通过性好;现场试验中处理了多次孔内卡钻、埋钻事故隐患,稳定和可靠性较高、可维护性好、起拔力监测准确、倒杆效率高,可以满足600 m深度救援井施工需求。给进装置轻量化,以及执行系统、传动系统、动力系统之间的响应匹配优化研究是今后的重点方向。 相似文献
18.
为解决矿井水灾事故应急快速反应、高效决策的现场需求,针对矿井水灾事故的不确定性、复杂性和紧迫性等特点,运用多案例分析法,解析了11起典型矿井水灾事故,提出了判别“情景”和事故“情景”两个关键概念,定义了集合{突水水源,突水通道,采掘方式,出水量,淹没范围,生存空间}为矿井水灾事故的情景,并运用AHP分析法计算了6个情景要素各自的权重。确立了“情景-应对”应用在矿井水灾应急决策领域的实现途径,详细阐述了构建情景库、案例库、对策库的方法以及“情景-应对”型矿井水灾应急决策方案的生成过程,并提出了以“黄金72小时” “8天8夜”为时间节点的多阶段矿井水灾事故应急决策机制,案例推演应用表明,该应急决策机制不仅规范了事故应急流程,而且实现了精准、快速、高效的目标。 相似文献
19.
Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Jochen Schmidt Iain Matcham Stefan Reese Andrew King Rob Bell Roddy Henderson Graeme Smart Jim Cousins Warwick Smith Dave Heron 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1169-1192
This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand. 相似文献
20.
Heidi Kreibich Philip Bubeck Michael Kunz Holger Mahlke Stefano Parolai Bijan Khazai James Daniell Tobia Lakes Kai Schröter 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(3):2279-2304
Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions. 相似文献