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1.
We examine the effects of natural disasters on income and investment in China. Using macroeconomic province-level data and the provincial history of disaster exposure over the past two decades, we describe the relationship between disaster mortality and morbidity, disasters’ economic damages, government investment and regional economic activity, and infrastructure development. The Chinese government’s aggressive investment in post-disaster reconstruction is discussed, and the implications of this investment for post-disaster private sector economic activity are analyzed empirically. We further investigate the differential effects of natural disasters on economic activity in China’s diverse geographical regions. 相似文献
2.
Climate- and weather-related disasters have become increasingly frequent and costly, resulting in substantial government spending on disaster assistance. Yet less is known about the effectiveness of disaster aid in enhancing community resilience to future disaster risks. This study examines multiple post-disaster aid programs implemented by the US federal government to support state and local governments as well as households and private businesses. Specifically, we estimate the risk-mitigating effects of these disaster-related programs by linking program spending with reported economic losses from flooding. Our empirical analysis utilizing panel data at the county level finds that low-interest disaster loans lead to the largest reduction in subsequent flooding damage, and grants targeting public infrastructure restoration and flood control measures also reduce future flooding losses. Results suggest a limited loss-mitigating effect of disaster cash aid given to private individuals. These findings provide important implications for federal disaster policy design and suggest that more efficiency gains could be realized by redistributing funds and streamlining processes across programs and agencies.
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3.
舟曲“8．8”特大山洪泥石流灾害损失惨重,举世瞩目,灾难发生后泥石流隐患依然存在,灾后重建中面临的第一个难题便是灾后重建工程设防标准的确定问题。通过分析激发“8．8”舟曲特大山洪泥石流灾害降水的时间与空间分布特征,认为本次降水具有强度大、历史短,局地性强的特征。基于此,建议灾后重建工程的泥石流综合治理工程设计中应充分根据本次降水的特征,考虑最不利的极端条件下即按此次降水雨强涵盖整个三眼峪流域范围所产生的最大流量。 相似文献
4.
采用灰色关联分析,计算全省各市2011—2017年洪涝灾情指数;运用熵权法估算洪涝风险指标权重,评估各市2005—2018年综合洪涝风险.主要结果表明:选取的灾情指标能有效地反映区域洪涝灾情,扬州是全省历史灾情较为严重的城市,全省大部分城市在2012年和2015年的灾情指数较高,2016年苏南和苏中的灾情较严重;各市在... 相似文献
5.
Transport infrastructure is at significant risk of direct damage from extreme climate events such as flooding, where the cost implications of delayed recovery are generally significant. Previous research in this regard has focused on the technical and engineering aspects of infrastructure construction. The risk management of resilient transport infrastructure is poorly considered, and little has been done to quantify the capacity of transport infrastructure to recover from the impact of natural disasters under varying conditions. This paper applies Cox’s proportional hazards regression model to determine the rate of recovery and cumulative probability that recovery occurs for transport infrastructure across regional areas in New South Wales, Australia. Data for post-disaster reconstruction projects over the period 1992–2012 are used to analyze recovery rate against geographic region, natural disaster type and post-disaster transport infrastructure reconstruction cost. Results demonstrate that transport infrastructure recovered slowest when the failure is the result of a flood rather than bushfire or storm, and in regions with a riverine geography. To validate the accuracy of the model, a bootstrap resampling technique is used. The bootstrap result confirms that the model is robust and reasonable. 相似文献
6.
In this study, we tracked and analyzed the reconstruction process in Bam, Iran, after the city was struck by an earthquake with a M w of 6.6 on December 26, 2003. We adopted three approaches to comprehensively assess the city’s post-earthquake reconstruction and to shed light on the progress and sustainability of disaster recovery projects. We applied the following methodology. First, we obtained official statistics and reports that included quantitative and qualitative evaluations of the reconstruction process to evaluate the overall outcome of the government’s reconstruction projects. Second, we examined photographs taken during field surveys conducted in 2004, 2007, and 2014 to assess changes within the city. Last, we analyzed three satellite images of Bam—the first taken 3 months before the earthquake, the second immediately after the earthquake, and the third 8 years after the earthquake—to assess the progress of reconstruction work and changes in land cover and land use. The results indicated that considerable progress had been made in reconstructing some of the damaged areas. However, progress was relatively slow in severely damaged areas. 相似文献
7.
Catastrophic disasters can change the course of urban development and challenge the long-run sustainability of cities and regions. How to rapidly reconstruct communities impaired by catastrophic disaster is a world-wide challenge. The reconstruction after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China was an unusual case of very rapid reconstruction after a catastrophic disaster. Over US$147 billion was invested to rebuild the damaged areas within 3 years. The reconstruction was not simply building back what was destroyed, but was used as an opportunity to advance national goals for urbanization, rural transformation, and poverty reduction. In this article, we review how the reconstruction was planned, budgeted, and financed in the sociopolitical context of 2008 China. Particularly, we discuss two innovative programs, namely pair assistance and land-based financing. Despite the unique circumstances of China, lessons can be learned to speed up post-disaster reconstruction and urban development in other countries. Conversely, this case illustrates that a narrow focus on physical reconstruction may overlook broader economic and social issues. 相似文献
8.
巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。 相似文献
9.
Disaster loss estimates are helpful for managing post-disaster reconstruction and for designing disaster-risk mitigation strategies.
However, most of these estimates in China merely consider direct losses, and only a few include indirect economic losses.
As the most destructive earthquake since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Wenchuan Earthquake that
occurred in 2008 resulted in direct economic damages reached Chinese Yuan (CNY) 845 billion (US $124 billion). The aim of
the study was to estimate indirect economic losses caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake in Sichuan Province through the Adaptive
Regional Input–Output (ARIO) model, which can reflect disaster-related changes in production capacity, ripple effects within
the economic system, and adaptive behaviors of economic actors. The results showed that indirect economic losses in the production
and housing sectors were estimated at 40% of the direct economic losses, i.e., approximately CNY 300 billion; moreover, the
model predicted an 8-year reconstruction period. Several factors contributed to these losses, including significant damages
to key sectors, financial constraints on reconstruction, post-earthquake investment instability, and limits in reconstruction
capacity. Active government support policies post-earthquake are a useful strategy to mitigate the adverse economic impact
of an earthquake in developing countries. 相似文献
10.
Landslides are the fourth most common natural disasters in the world, with Costa Rica and southern Mexico being the most affected regions of Central America (Froude and Petley, 2018). In this work, we propose a semi-automated method to detect earthquake-triggered landslides for rapid mapping after a disaster event using open Sentinel-1 data. We used high-resolution TerraSAR-X data and very high-resolution Spot-7 images to compare and evaluate the accuracy of landslide distribution maps generated from the semi-automated method, applied to the M 7.1 earthquake on June 23, 2017, in Oaxaca, Mexico. The outcomes showed better accuracy in descending orbits due to ‘windward-leeward’ physiographic conditions, with a 50.56% quality percentage. This shows a reasonably good capacity to detect co-seismic landslides. However, the breaching factor was also high because several features, such as bare soils and agricultural areas, were incorrectly identified as co-seismic landslides. Finally, this semi-automated method establishes a basis for future improvements in methodologies applied to construct rapid mapping inventories using medium SAR scales. 相似文献
11.
The direct damage caused by earthquakes, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operations and disrupt
the function of the industrial chain. Such economic impacts can be evaluated using the input–output analysis developed by
Leontief. In this paper, two scenario earthquakes in northern Taiwan both with a return period of 475 years—the Hsinchu Hsincheng
and the Yilan Nan-ao earthquakes—are simulated. The results show that the economic impact caused by the Hsincheng earthquake
is greater than that resulting from the Nan-ao earthquake, which should be the major scenario considered for the disaster
reduction plan. The industries affected the most are the manufacturing, food services and entertainment, storage and retail
trade, and public and construction industries. The Nan-ao earthquake causes relatively more losses in the food services and
entertainment industries. Most of the repercussion effects of these industries are in the central and southern parts of Taiwan.
The loss to the manufacturing sector and its repercussion effects are enormous. Therefore, the government should make it a
first priority to encourage the manufacturing sector to implement earthquake mitigations, such as a seismic retrofit, or to
provide a seismic evaluation, which can enable firms to engage in mitigation voluntarily. The measure needed to reduce the
loss in agriculture is that the government can purchase agricultural products in central and southern Taiwan following the
disaster and offer them to survivors in northern Taiwan. 相似文献
12.
The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance. 相似文献
13.
Engineering geology, in 1996, worldwide, was experiencing considerable turmoil due to the uncertain nature of national economies and the general situation of inadequate funds to meet the demands of failing of the national infrastructures that serve citizens. Aside from the previously war-damaged cities of Western Europe, new public service systems of transportation and utilities elsewhere often lagged well behind growth. It will be some time before international aid and civil engineering contracts are initiated for anything other than humanitarian and basic emergency aid work in these areas. Many countries in the western hemisphere, eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union and developing nations in particular are still in need of basic water and sewage services as well as repair and replacement of old existing systems. Continued partisan warfare in the Balkan states of Albania, Bosnia, Croatia and Serbia forecast the eventual need for redevelopment. Rumblings of broad-scale economic problems in Far-Eastern economies did little to make overseas contract opportunities in these areas very attractive. Large consulting firms were challenged by an increasing number of individual and small practices who are prepared to operate on 1970's rates and prices for services and government and industry was taking advantage of that situation. More and more individuals were offering services in engineering geology and associated engineering fields and there was a sense of not having enough work to go around. Hence, price competition was again being promoted. Consequently in both Europe and the Americas, the variability of competence was enlarging and a significant amount of so-called ‘professional ’ work was lacking in overall quality. This was especially evident in ‘Environmental’ areas of work. This begs the question: ‘Is not engineering geology, or any other aspect of applied geosciences, not environmental in nature and essence, fundamentally and in entirety?’ Environmental restoration demands were still being made by governments, but the pressure to complete such work was being relaxed on account of economics. Our clients were asking for more service at lower fees. Clients were still largely unwilling to openly acknowledge that less money spent on competent engineering geologic consultation means that more risk should be accepted by the owner or operator of projects. 相似文献
14.
Despite the occurrence of fatal landslides in Malawi, literature is not available on their socio-economic and environmental
effects. Limited or no research is being carried out in this area except for technical reports commissioned by the government.
Landsliding does not appear on the ten environmental concerns affecting the nation. This paper attempts to examine the socio-economic
and environmental effects of landslides that struck parts of Ntcheu district of central Malawi and Rumphi district of northern
Malawi in 2003. This paper asserts that poor rural people are more vulnerable to landslides and their resilience is low. Unsustainable
production systems, inappropriate location of settlements, low incomes coupled with lack of government support aggravates
the situation. Mitigation measures, which were in conflict with people’s production systems, prevented them from participating
in the rehabilitation of the areas. Lack of support from government for the reconstruction and regeneration of local production
had economic effects such as loss of livelihood, unemployment, decreased productivity and out migration to urban centers.
The study recommends the participation of all stakeholders in reducing the impacts of landslides and the development of disaster
management plans to achieve timely response to landslide hazards. 相似文献
15.
The problems of mass-homelessness created by the earthquake of 23 November 1980 in southern Italy were tackled by the Italian government in two phases, respectively involving resettlement of the survivors in temporary prefabricated homes and reconstruction of permanent housing. This paper firstly describes and evaluates the programme of temporary shelter provision, showing that, although it was successful in rehousing survivors, it has helped to alter the urban layout and architectural style of villages in the disaster area and, coupled with indiscriminate demolition of damaged buildings, has reduced the emphasis on permanent reconstruction. Special powers adopted by the government to achieve the resettlement are also evaluated. Next, the main reconstruction laws, which were passed about 6 months after the disaster, are examined. Large-scale financial provision for the reconstruction process is shown to have been tempered by bureaucratic delays, legal complexities and a certain amount of inequity in the distribution of funds. Aftershocks and subsequent earthquakes are described in terms of how they prolonged the psychological and physical emergency and helped to stimulate official preparedness for disaster relief. Finally, landslides, floods and other natural disasters occurring during the aftermath of the 1980 earthquake are shown to have had a cumulative effect that resulted in the formation, in 1982, of a Ministry for Civil Protection and the belated strengthening of national measures for disaster relief and prevention. 相似文献
16.
This paper presents panel-developed, expert opinion-based suggestions, and a Delphi process for the development of an earthquake damage assessment and recovery model. The model was specifically designed for the disaster relief of the damaged bridges of the 921 earthquake in Taiwan and uses four major indices: emergency handling ability, administrative capability, budget execution responsibility, and law enforcement reliability. The 921 earthquake, which occurred on September 21, 1999, forced the Taiwanese government into an unprecedented relief operation consisting of emergency rescue and reconstruction. However, some of the relief measures reflected possible inefficiency in intergovernmental cooperation. Regarded as one of the most decisive relief measures in Taichung County before it was consolidated and upgraded to a municipality on 25 December, 2010, the rescue and reconstruction of the majorly damaged bridges in the county were taken as an example to analyze the differences in the earthquake relief policies between the central and local governments. Based on experts’ experiences in government affairs and the four major indices of the damage assessment and recovery model, the ongoing governmental restructuring policy is considered retrospectively not only at the central government level but also at the local government level; this would serve to improve preparedness for catastrophes and to solve possible problems in earthquake-related intergovernmental cooperation. 相似文献
17.
We examine the effects of natural disasters on income and investment in China. Using macroeconomic province-level data and the provincial history of disaster exposure over the past two decades, we describe the relationship between disaster mortality and morbidity, disasters’ economic damages, government investment and regional economic activity, and infrastructure development. The Chinese government’s aggressive investment in post-disaster reconstruction is discussed, and the implications of this investment for post-disaster private sector economic activity are analyzed empirically. We further investigate the differential effects of natural disasters on economic activity in China’s diverse geographical regions. 相似文献
18.
Pacific Island countries are among the list of countries that face the highest disaster risk globally—in per capita terms. In recent years, governments in the region have been confronted by a rise in damages from extreme catastrophic events, many increasingly linked to climate change. These events pose significant challenges to Pacific governments in terms of maintaining fiscal stability and the operation of their limited and under-diversified economies and shallow financial sectors. Governments in the region generally play a leading role in domestic economies and are responsible for leading disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery efforts. Accordingly, measures to improve financial sustainability and the public sector’s ability to provide public services in the aftermath of major disasters must be prioritized. This paper examines the literature on fiscal resilience to disasters, the estimated impacts of major events in the Pacific, and analyses the applicability of available financial instruments to facilitate both ex ante and ex post disaster fiscal risk management in the region. The paper also discusses policies that can improve resilience against fiscal risks.
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19.
Households’ links with local Government provide important support for disaster resilience and recovery on the Bangladeshi coast. Few previous studies of disaster resilience and recovery have explored how linking social networks—and in particular local government—contribute. Using household surveys, focus groups, and key informant interviews, we examine strengths and weaknesses of local government’s contribution, using two cyclone-affected coastal villages as case studies. The findings show that local government provides important support, for example relief distribution, livelihood assistance, and reconstruction of major community services. However, patronage relationships (notably favouring political supporters) and bribery play a substantial role in how those responsibilities are discharged. The equity and efficiency of these contributions to recovery are markedly diminished by corruption. Reducing corruption in UP’s contributions to disaster recovery could significantly improve resilience; however, general reform of governance in Bangladesh would needed to bring this about. 相似文献
20.
This paper studies the long-run economic effects of severe weather on regional economies. A catastrophic event, such as a
hurricane, will have an effect on both the directly impacted region and adjacent regions. With dramatically increasing damage
from catastrophic weather events over the past few decades, comprehensive assessment of the long-run economic impact of natural
disasters across the broader region becomes more important than ever for planning for post-disaster recovery. We estimate
the long-run effect of Hurricane Katrina on the unemployment rate of Houston, TX by employing time-series and fixed-effect
models. Using Dallas as a control, we find that Katrina is associated with a higher long-run unemployment rate in Houston
than would otherwise have been expected. This implies that the hurricane-generated adverse relative effects on Houston. Our
findings suggest that areas that are geographically proximate to the directly impacted region can sustain lasting negative
economic consequences. 相似文献
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