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利用欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF)、美国大气环境预报中心 (NCEP) 集合预报系统 (EPS) 降水量预报资料,CMORPH (NOAA Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method) 卫星与全国3万个自动气象站降水量融合资料,基于技巧评分、ROC (relative operating characteristic) 分析等方法,对比两个集合预报系统对秦岭及周边地区的降水预报性能。结果表明:两个系统均能较好表现降水量的空间形态,对于不同量级降水,ECMWF集合预报系统0~240 h控制及扰动预报优于NCEP集合预报系统,但NCEP集合预报系统264~360 h预报时效整体表现更好; ECMWF集合预报系统0~120 h大雨集合平均优于NCEP集合预报系统,两个系统集合平均的预报技巧整体低于其控制及扰动成员预报,这种现象ECMWF集合预报系统表现更为显著; ECMWF集合预报系统降水预报概率优于NCEP集合预报系统。ROC分析显示,随着预报概率的增大,ECMWF集合预报系统在命中率略微下降的情况下,显著减小了空报率,NCEP集合预报系统则表现出高空报、高命中率。 相似文献
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利用气象和环保资料详细分析了武威市空气质量的特点,针对不同季节、不同时次分别建立了沙尘暴短时、短期预报模式及空气质量统计预报、潜势预报模式,经检验效果良好。应用Fortran和VB语言设计编程,建立了武威市空气质量预报系统,该系统包括沙尘暴预报预警服务系统、空气质量统计预报系统和空气质量潜势预报系统,直接和MICAPS系统接口,具有资料处理、动力统计预报、潜势预报等模式计算及资料采集、处理、模式运行、预报显示、产品分发、资料查询、预报评分等多种功能,在业务应用中效果良好。 相似文献
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采用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和T63谱模式月动力延伸预报产品资料,对200、500hPa高度场及200hPa、700hPaU、V风场进行相关系数、距平、距平同号率、距平相关系数的分析,得出如下结论:月动力延伸预报产品对极涡、南亚高压、副热带高压预报能力较强,夏季副热带系统预报偏强,西风带系统预报偏弱;冬季西风带系统预报偏强,副热带系统预报偏弱。西风带和副热带系统的距平误差基本反映出影响我国年季气候变化主导系统的进退及预报误差。 相似文献
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针对“23·7”华北特大暴雨过程,采用天气学检验及TS(thrcat scorc)评分和MODE(mcthod for objcct-bascd diagnostic cvaluation)方法对中国气象局高分辨率全球同化预报系统(CMA-GFS)、较低分辨率全球集合预报系统(CMA-EPS)、欧洲中期数值预报中心集合预报系统(EC-EPS)和业务预报模式(EC-HR)、美国环境预报中心全球预报系统(NCEP-GFS)等全球模式和中国气象局区域台风数值预报系统(CMA-TYM)、中尺度天气数值预报系统(CMA-MESO)和区域数值预报系统(CMA-BJ)等进行中短期预报效果检验评估。结果表明:EC-EPS提前14 d预报京津冀一带有过程累积降水量超过100 mm强降水的发生概率,CMA-EPS可提前12 d报出,但预报欠稳定且落区偏东偏南。EC-HR对100 mm以上过程累积降水量及2 d以上暴雨日的位置预报提前时效均达8 d左右,CMA-GFS的过程累积降水量预报显著偏小、强降水落区明显偏东,可用预报时效短;NCEP-GFS预报性能介于二者之间。各模式均可提前36 h预报强降水落区和... 相似文献
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2011年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
本文对2011年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)业务定位和预报精度进行评定,内容包括TC定位、确定性路径和强度预报以及路径集合预报。结果表明:业务定位总平均误差为24.9 km;国内各综合预报方法24、48和72 h的总体平均距离误差分别为112.6、209.7和333.6 km;国内各业务数值模式24、48和72 h预报的总体平均距离误差分别为121.4、220.1和380.5 km,均比2010年有所减小,但各模式的强度预报能力仍不如客观预报方法。对7个集合预报系统的TC路径预报能力进行评估,发现ECMWF集合预报系统的整体表现最好,其次是NCEP集合预报系统,这两个系统在某些时效的集合平均预报接近或超过综合预报水平。国家气象中心集合预报系统处中游水平。 相似文献
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Native Trees as Biomonitors of Chemical Elements in the Biodiversity Conservation of the Atlantic Forest 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Elvis J. De França Elisabete A. De Nadai Fernades Márcio A. Bacchi Mitiko Saiki 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2004,49(1-3):579-592
The Atlantic Forest, a hotspot in the world with a great diversity of plants and animals, is located in the most industrialized area of Brazil, a potential source of chemical elements for the atmosphere. From its original area about 10% has been preserved mainly through the implementation of conservation units, among which the Parque Estadual Carlos Botelho (PECB) is one of the most representative. Here, leaves of the predominant species in the PECB were analyzed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) for the establishment of natural backgrounds of As, Ba, Br, Ca, Cd, Ce, Co, Cs, Fe, Hg, K, Na, Rb, Sc, Se, Sr and Zn. Biomonitoring of the Atlantic Forest was realized through the tree community study taking in account the interspecies and the intraspecies variability of chemical concentrations. Results pointed out the low status of pollution based on the concentrations of chemical elements of environmental concerning. However, Br concentrations were higher in the understory species, which could be related to the possible effects of atmospheric pollution or sea influence. In addition, some Hyeronima alchorneoides trees showed to be hyperaccumulators of Co. 相似文献
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Forest-driven water and energy cycles are poorly integrated into regional, national, continental and global decision-making on climate change adaptation, mitigation, land use and water management. This constrains humanity’s ability to protect our planet’s climate and life-sustaining functions. The substantial body of research we review reveals that forest, water and energy interactions provide the foundations for carbon storage, for cooling terrestrial surfaces and for distributing water resources. Forests and trees must be recognized as prime regulators within the water, energy and carbon cycles. If these functions are ignored, planners will be unable to assess, adapt to or mitigate the impacts of changing land cover and climate. Our call to action targets a reversal of paradigms, from a carbon-centric model to one that treats the hydrologic and climate-cooling effects of trees and forests as the first order of priority. For reasons of sustainability, carbon storage must remain a secondary, though valuable, by-product. The effects of tree cover on climate at local, regional and continental scales offer benefits that demand wider recognition. The forest- and tree-centered research insights we review and analyze provide a knowledge-base for improving plans, policies and actions. Our understanding of how trees and forests influence water, energy and carbon cycles has important implications, both for the structure of planning, management and governance institutions, as well as for how trees and forests might be used to improve sustainability, adaptation and mitigation efforts. 相似文献
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基于WebGIS技术采用服务即是软件、软件即是服务的建设思路,结合可扩展框架技术,实现基于服务集成的气象服务产品在线制作系统的建设,从一定程度上解决了系统产品制作面临的不能集中部署、规范不统一、效率低下、更新复杂等问题。系统分为服务器端和客户端两部分,服务器端负责服务接口的开发和发布,客户端负责各级调度管理和运行。该系统解决了服务的注册、标准化、流水线化、参数序列化、多级任务调度等多个关键技术,系统具备可扩展性、产品标准化、流程规范化、跨平台等特点,系统建设的完成增加了气象服务产品制作的规范性、接口化,产品制作时间由原来的1~2 min降至10 s以内。 相似文献
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S. Augusto P. Pinho C. Branquinho M. J. Pereira A. Soares F. Catarino 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2004,49(1-3):53-65
Polychlorodibenzeno-dioxins and polychlorodibenzeno-furans (PCDD/Fs) are considered among the most toxic compounds on earth. The aim of the present study was to evaluate atmospheric PCDD/F deposition and identify the areas with greater deposition of these compounds in an important industrialized and urbanized region of Portugal, using lichens as biomonitors. For this purpose, samples of the lichen Xanthoria parietina were collected at 60 sampling sites, covering urban, industrial, forestry and agriculture areas, and analyzed for PCDD/Fs, sulfur, nitrogen, zinc, iron, chromium, lead, cobalt, nickel, copper, calcium, manganese, magnesium and potassium. The concentrations of PCDD/Fs in lichens were compared with the other elements and related to land-use and population density. The results obtained through the geostatistical interpolations and after principal component analysis have shown that PCDD/F deposition estimated by lichens is greater near industrial and highly populated urban areas. We found that lichens are suitable biomonitors of PCDD/F atmospheric deposition and can contribute to a better knowledge of air quality in a region, enabling identification of critical pollutant deposition areas. 相似文献
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This study assesses the performance of temperature extremes over China in two regional climate models(RCMs),RegCM4 and WRF, driven by the ECMWF's 20 th century reanalysis. Based on the advice of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices(ETCCDI), 12 extreme temperature indices(i.e., TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, TX90 p, TN90 p,TX10 p, TN10 p WSDI, ID, FD, and CSDI) are derived from the simulations of two RCMs and compared with those from the daily station-based observational data for the period 1981–2010. Overall, the two RCMs demonstrate satisfactory capability in representing the spatiotemporal distribution of the extreme indices over most regions. RegCM performs better than WRF in reproducing the mean temperature extremes, especially over the Tibetan Plateau(TP). Moreover, both models capture well the decreasing trends in ID, FD, CSDI, TX10 p, and TN10 p, and the increasing trends in TXx, TXn, TNx, TNn, WSDI, TX90 p,and TN90 p, over China. Compared with observation, RegCM tends to underestimate the trends of temperature extremes,while WRF tends to overestimate them over the TP. For instance, the linear trends of TXx over the TP from observation,RegCM, and WRF are 0.53?C(10 yr)-1, 0.44?C(10 yr)-1, and 0.75?C(10 yr)-1, respectively. However, WRF performs better than RegCM in reproducing the interannual variability of the extreme-temperature indices. Our findings are helpful towards improving our understanding of the physical realism of RCMs in terms of different time scales, thus enabling us in future work to address the sources of model biases. 相似文献
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本文试图从经典的大众传播学基本理论和模式入手,梳理现有气候变化知识产品的编制方式、主要传播途径和相关实践经验,以期为未来气候变化信息传播研究和实践提供参考。分析表明,气候变化知识传播过程应遵循信息传播的基本规律,并充分考虑气候变化知识自身所具有的复杂性和交叉性特点;在信息采集方面,应注重知识的科学性、系统性、准确性和权威性;在展示方式方面,应注重内容的可读性、趣味性、精练性和通俗性;在传播途径方面,除传统的大众媒介外,还需要注重利用新兴的互联网、社交媒体等平台,发挥人际关系网络作用;在国家经济社会发展的新形势下,需要进一步加强气候变化知识传播的理论、模式和实践等方面的创新性研究。 相似文献
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Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC): An Overview on Emission, Physiology and Ecology 总被引：50，自引：0，他引：50
This overview compiles the actual knowledge of the biogenic emissions of some volatile organic compounds (VOCs), i.e., isoprene, terpenes, alkanes, alkenes, alcohols, esters, carbonyls, and acids. We discuss VOC biosynthesis, emission inventories, relations between emission and plant physiology as well as temperature and radiation, and ecophysiological functions. For isoprene and monoterpenes, an extended summary of standard emission factors, with data related to the plant genus and species, is included. The data compilation shows that we have quite a substantial knowledge of the emission of isoprene and monoterpenes, including emission rates, emission regulation, and biosynthesis. The situation is worse in the case of numerous other compounds (other VOCs or OVOCs) being emitted by the biosphere. This is reflected in the insufficient knowledge of emission rates and biological functions. Except for the terpenoids, only a limited number of studies of OVOCs are available; data are summarized for alkanes, alkenes, carbonyls, alcohols, acids, and esters. In addition to closing these gaps of knowledge, one of the major objectives for future VOC research is improving our knowledge of the fate of organic carbon in the atmosphere, ending up in oxidation products and/or as aerosol particles. 相似文献
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通过系统梳理日本适应气候变化法律政策的发展历程,分析日本多主体适应气候变化的框架机制,结合其目前具体的适应实践进展,总结出可供中国借鉴的经验启示。研究发现,日本适应气候变化法律政策的发展经历了由重减缓、轻适应,到上升至国家战略,再到立法这3个阶段,形成了以国家、国立环境研究所、地方公共团体、地区气候变化适应中心、企业和居民为主体的多主体适应框架,从科研成果与决策应用转化、适应信息“共享—反馈—更新”有效循环、建立跨地区合作平台、适应资金支持、实施进度监测管理等5个方面构建了多主体适应气候变化机制。目前日本各适应主体逐步开展适应气候变化实践,但适应工作仍处于初期阶段,适应信息共享体系、跨地区合作细则以及适应政策实施效果评价体系有待进一步完善。结合日本的法律政策经验和中国具体情况,提出了中国应科学定位适应气候变化法律地位、加快立法进程,完善“监测评估—信息共享—适应行动—效果评价”多主体适应框架的机制体制,引导企业采取气候风险管理和适应性商业活动,提高居民的适应认知和适应能力的政策建议。 相似文献
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Global warming is expected to affect both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, though projections of the response of these events to climate warming remain highly uncertain. The range of changes reported in the climate modelling literature is very large, sometimes leading to contradictory results for a given extreme weather event. Much of this uncertainty stems from the incomplete understanding of the physics of extreme weather processes, the lack of representation of mesoscale processes in coarse-resolution climate models, and the effect of natural climate variability at multi-decadal time scales. However, some of the spread in results originates simply from the variety of scenarios for future climate change used to drive climate model simulations, which hampers the ability to make generalizations about predicted changes in extreme weather events. In this study, we present a meta-analysis of the literature on projected future extreme weather events in order to quantify expected changes in weather extremes as a function of a common metric of global mean temperature increases. We find that many extreme weather events are likely to be significantly affected by global warming. In particular, our analysis indicates that the overall frequency of global tropical cyclones could decrease with global warming but that the intensity of these storms, as well as the frequency of the most intense cyclones could increase, particularly in the northwestern Pacific basin. We also found increases in the intensity of South Asian monsoonal rainfall, the frequency of global heavy precipitation events, the number of North American severe thunderstorm days, North American drought conditions, and European heatwaves, with rising global mean temperatures. In addition, the periodicity of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation may decrease, which could, in itself, influence extreme weather frequency in many areas of the climate system. 相似文献
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DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2-D COUPLED STRATOSPHERICTROPOSPHERIC DYNAMICAL-RADIATIVE-CHEMICAL MODEL—PART Ⅱ:THE RESULTS AND DISCUSSION OF SENSITIVITY EXPERIMENTS 
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下载免费PDF全文 By using the 2-D stratospheric-tropospheric dynamic-radiative-chemical coupled model,somesensitivity experiments have been done,which are interactions among ozone,radiation andtemperature,vapor effects,as well as effects of source and sink.The result of temperatureexperiment shows that feedback interaction among ozone,radiation and temperature,mainlyoccurs in the upper and middle stratosphere,the maximum of ozone concentration decrease is 1ppm,the maximum of temperature change is 6 K,and the maximum of total ozone change is 20DU.From the experiment of water vapor,we can see that the area of the middle and high latitudesof the Northern Hemisphere is sensitive to vapor change.When the maximum difference betweenboth surface sources is in the Antarctic,the maximum of ozone change is also there.Because thecharacter of surface varies with latitude,dry deposition is different in different latitudes.Thechange of dry deposition makes ozone in boundary layer quite obvious,especially in both poles.The maximum change of total volume ozone in experiments of vapor,source and sink is more than12 DU. 相似文献