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1.
北大西洋涛动变率研究进展   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  
介绍了近年来北大西洋涛动研究的最新进展。 NAO指数序列的建立取得了很多成果 ,包括一些观测气象记录的序列以及利用树木年轮、冰芯等代用资料建立的近 30 0多年的序列 ,这些长的序列显示 NAO不仅有突出的年际变率 ,也有显著的年代际变率。总结了 NAO对地面温度、降水、北大西洋飓风和北半球臭氧等影响的一些研究成果。NAO的低频变率可能与气候系统内部的相互作用以及外部强迫有关。许多模拟研究发现 NAO与温盐环流有密切的联系 ,但是这种关系还有待观测资料的证实。全球气候变暖也可能是影响 NAO变率的一个不可忽视的因素。  相似文献   

2.
杨梅学  姚檀栋 《冰川冻土》2004,26(3):289-293
利用古里雅冰芯近2 000 a来的温度代用资料, 用奇异谱分析方法对气候变化的趋势及人类活动造成的影响进行了分析, 指出近2 000 a来气候一直在变暖, 这是气候的自然变暖过程. 同时分析结果显示, 工业革命以来, 人类活动对气候的增暖十分明显. 正是因为气候的自然变暖和人类活动影响的叠加, 才使得20世纪成为过去2 000 a来最温暖的100 a.  相似文献   

3.
Based on proxy records from western Black Sea cores, we provide a comprehensive study of climate change during the last glacial maximum and late-glacial period in the Black Sea region. For the first time we present a record of relative changes in precipitation for NW Anatolia based on variations in the terrigenous supply expressed as detrital carbonate concentration. The good correspondence between reconstructed rainfall intensity in NW Anatolia and past western Mediterranean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) implies that during the glacial period the precipitation variability was controlled, like today, by Mediterranean cyclonic disturbances. Periods of reduced precipitation correlate well with low SSTs in the Mediterranean related to Heinrich events H1 and H2. Stable oxygen isotopes and lithological and mineralogical data point to a significant modification in the dominant freshwater/sediment source concomitant to the meltwater inflow after 16.4 cal ka BP. This change implies intensification of the northern sediment source and, with other records from the Mediterranean region, consistently suggests a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation pattern affecting the hydrology of the European continent. The early deglacial northward retreat of both atmospheric and oceanic polar fronts was responsible for the warming in the Mediterranean region, leading simultaneously to more humid conditions in central and northern Europe.  相似文献   

4.
青藏高原地区过去2000年来的气候变化   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14  
杨保 《地球科学进展》2003,18(2):285-291
依据冰芯、树轮、沉积物分析和冰川波动等各单点古气候代用资料,以及重建的综合温度变化曲线,分析了近 2000年青藏高原温度变化的整体性和区域性特征。全青藏高原综合温度曲线显示中世纪暖期（1150-1400年）、小冰期（1400-1900年）以及公元 3～5世纪冷期的存在。青藏高原温度变化具有明显的区域性特征。在 9～11世纪,青藏高原东北部以温暖为特征,而青藏高原南部和西部表现为寒冷。青藏高原南部和西部分别于1150-1400年（此时段在高原东北部表现为弱暖期）和1250-1500年经历了气候变暖。与中国东部文献记录的最新综合研究结果比较,高原东北部与中国东部的温度变化最为一致。而且,许多重大气候事件,如1100-1150年、1500-1550年、1650-1700年和1800-1850年的冷事件在高原和中国东部同时出现,而后 3次冷期与小冰期期间中国西部发生的冰川前进相匹配。  相似文献   

5.
The sediment profile from Lake Gościąż in central Poland comprises a continuous, seasonally resolved and exceptionally well-preserved archive of the Younger Dryas (YD) climate variation. This provides a unique opportunity for detailed investigation of lake system responses during periods of rapid climate cooling (YD onset) and warming (YD termination). The new varve record of Lake Gościąż presented here spans 1662 years from the late Allerød (AL) to the early Preboreal (PB). Microscopic varve counting provides an independent chronology with a YD duration of 1149+14/–22 years, which confirms previous results of 1140±40 years. We link stable oxygen isotopes and chironomid-based air temperature reconstructions with the response of various geochemical and varve microfacies proxies especially focusing on the onset and termination of the YD. Cooling at the YD onset lasted ~180 years, which is about a century longer than the terminal warming that was completed in ~70 years. During the AL/YD transition, environmental proxy data lagged the onset of cooling by ~90 years and revealed an increase of lake productivity and internal lake re-suspension as well as slightly higher detrital sediment input. In contrast, rapid warming and environmental changes during the YD/PB transition occurred simultaneously. However, initial changes such as declining diatom deposition and detrital input occurred already a few centuries before the rapid warming at the YD/PB transition. These environmental changes likely reflect a gradual increase in summer air temperatures already during the YD. Our data indicate complex and differing environmental responses to the major climate changes related to the YD, which involve different proxy sensitivities and threshold processes.  相似文献   

6.
The Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO), which occurred at about 15 Ma, is the most recent global warming episode. Given the fact that no dramatic tectonic movement had taken place, this historical warming episode mirrors the present warming event induced mostly by human activities. Proxy data indicate that the MMCO had a global mean surface temperature of ～3–4°C higher than the present, equivalent to the warming predicted for the next century by the mid-range scenarios of the IPCC Fourth Report (AR4). With this comparable magnitude of warming, it is therefore of scientific interest to examine whether or not the present warming is similar to the MMCO warming. Since the MMCO boundary conditions such as paleogeography and paleobathymetry were not greatly different from today, contentious scientific issues on possible forcing mechanisms can be assessed. The MMCO climate was simulated using the latest National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model CAM3.1 and Land Model CLM3.0 coupled to a slab ocean model. Two simulations were conducted, the MG700 with a near-present equator–pole meridional sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient and a CO2 level of 700 ppmv and the HG350 with a higher equator–pole meridional SST gradient and a CO2 level of 350 ppmv. These two simulations give the closest proxy global mean surface temperature of 18.4°C with a difference of ±0.6°C. This study analyses these two simulations and provides an insight into possible mechanisms of the MMCO. Results show that the north and south poles respond differently to a 50% reduction in CO2 from the upper bound value of 700 ppmv (an approximate doubling of the present CO2) and a change in equator–pole meridional SST gradient. The Arctic response to a 50% reduction in CO2 is balanced by a 50% decrease in surface temperature but shows no response to the increase in equator–pole meridional SST gradient. The Antarctic situation is opposite to the Arctic: the western Antarctic's response to the increase in the equator–pole meridional SST gradient is nearly balanced by a doubling of the maximum surface temperature, but shows no response to a 50% reduction in CO2; the eastern Antarctic shows a weak response to either a 50% reduction in CO2 or to an increase in the equator–pole meridional SST gradient. This may explain why the Arctic warms much more than the Antarctic in the MMCO and the decoupling of CO2 with temperature as determined by the proxy SST.  相似文献   

7.
全球气候变暖研究中的不确定性   总被引：40，自引：0，他引：40  
龚道溢  王绍武 《地学前缘》2002,9(2):371-376
讨论了有关全球变暖研究中存在的一些不确定性 ,主要包括 3个方面 ,即资料方面的不确定性 ,气候变化机制方面的不确定性和预测方面的不确定性。城市热岛效应是资料中最大的误差来源 ,特别是一些最近几十年快速发展的城市 ,其热岛效应的误差没有很好地得到检查和排除。资料覆盖面也很不完善。地面观测温度在 1979— 1999年的趋势是 0 19℃ / 10a ,但覆盖全球的卫星观测资料(反映对流层低层到中层 )趋势只有 0 0 6℃ / 10a。北极地区的温度变化也没有设想的那样强烈。使用海表温度比使用海表气温得到的变暖估计值偏高。 1979年以来 ,用气温代替海温 ,趋势只有0 13℃ / 10a。海洋在气候变化中的作用需要更深入地研究。利用代用资料来估计全球温度的变化 ,带来的不确定性较大 ,特别是树木年轮 ,因为CO2 浓度的增加可以加速植物的生长 ,其年轮宽度并不一定主要反映与温度的关系。未来气候变化的预测有很大的不确定性 ,到 2 10 0年全球平均气温达+1 4℃～ +5 8℃的估计很可能偏高。  相似文献   

8.
在末次冰消期总体持续增温的过程中,全球气候经历了一系列以"快速增温/降温"为主要特征的千-数十年尺度的突变事件.由于这些气候突变事件具有明显的高频特性,需要在全球范围不同地区开展更多高分辨率的古气候研究,用于进行突变事件的对比和机制的探讨.本研究对比滇西南腾冲青海湖、滇西北泸沽湖和高山湖泊天才湖约2万以来的孢粉、炭屑记录,揭示了中国滇西地区末次冰消期的植被演替与气候变化历史,探讨了末次冰消期存在的气候突变事件.结果表明,滇西地区末次冰消期开始转暖发生在约19 ka(1 ka=1000 cal. a B. P.);冰消期开始以后,滇西地区气候普遍依次在 17. 5±0. 5~15. 2±0. 1 ka期间、 15. 2±0. 1~14. 3±0. 1 ka期间、 14. 3± 0. 1~12. 9±0. 1 ka期间和12. 9±0. 1~11. 7±0. 2 ka期间存在冷干-逐渐变暖变湿-明显更暖湿-温度湿度略有下降等这几个突变事件,它们在时间上分别对应于H1冷事件、波令前增暖期、 B/A暖期和YD冷事件;滇西地区比较一致地在 11. 7±0. 2 ka进入全新世.除此之外,滇西北地区在约17. 7~17. 0 ka期间可能还存在一次短暂的较明显的暖湿期.对末次冰消期气候变化机制的探讨认为,末次冰消期开始转暖及以后逐渐增温的趋势主要受夏季太阳辐射量从约20 ka逐渐增加,到11 ka左右达到峰值的控制;而末次冰消期发生的气候突变事件如H1冷事件、波令前增暖期、 B/A暖期和YD冷事件主要是受大西洋温盐环流的影响,同时温室气体浓度的变化也起了重要的调制作用.  相似文献   

9.
气候变暖成因研究的历史、现状和不确定性   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  
任国玉 《地球科学进展》2008,23(10):1084-1091
简要回顾了关于气候变暖成因研究的历史和现状,重点评述了当前气候学界对全球和中国气候变暖原因的认识及其仍存在的不确定性。气候学者对气候变暖与大气中温室气体浓度关系的认识,目前比过去任何时候似乎都更加清晰,但他们眼前仍然弥漫着重重迷雾。引起观测到的气候变暖的因子十分复杂,相关问题的研究仍存在大量不确定性。未来气候变化科学的进步依赖于对这些尚存不确定性的认识水平和削减程度。  相似文献   

10.
A few studies from the western Arabian Sea indicate that the Indian summer (or southwest) monsoon (ISM), after attaining its maximum intensity at ca. 9 ka, declined during the Holocene, as did insolation. In contrast, earlier and later observations from both the eastern and the western Arabian Sea do not support this inference. Analysis of multiple proxies of productivity in a new sediment core from the western Arabian Sea fails to confirm the earlier, single‐proxy (e.g. abundance of Globigerina bulloides) based, inference of the Holocene weakening of ISM, following insolation. The reason for the observed decreasing trend in foraminiferal abundance – the basis for the earlier inference – could be the favouring of silicate rather than carbonate productivity by the increased ISM wind strength. Although ISM exhibits several multi‐millennial scale fluctuations, there is no evidence from several multi‐proxy data to conclude that it declined during the Holocene; this is consistent with the phase lag analysis of longer time series of monsoon proxies. Thus, on sub‐Milankovitch timescales, ISM did not follow insolation, highlighting the importance of internal feedbacks. A comparison with East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) records suggests that both ISM and EASM varied in unison, implying common forcing factors on such longer timescales. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2004,23(5-6):529-560
The spatio-temporal pattern of peak Holocene warmth (Holocene thermal maximum, HTM) is traced over 140 sites across the Western Hemisphere of the Arctic (0–180°W; north of ∼60°N). Paleoclimate inferences based on a wide variety of proxy indicators provide clear evidence for warmer-than-present conditions at 120 of these sites. At the 16 terrestrial sites where quantitative estimates have been obtained, local HTM temperatures (primarily summer estimates) were on average 1.6±0.8°C higher than present (approximate average of the 20th century), but the warming was time-transgressive across the western Arctic. As the precession-driven summer insolation anomaly peaked 12–10 ka (thousands of calendar years ago), warming was concentrated in northwest North America, while cool conditions lingered in the northeast. Alaska and northwest Canada experienced the HTM between ca 11 and 9 ka, about 4000 yr prior to the HTM in northeast Canada. The delayed warming in Quebec and Labrador was linked to the residual Laurentide Ice Sheet, which chilled the region through its impact on surface energy balance and ocean circulation. The lingering ice also attests to the inherent asymmetry of atmospheric and oceanic circulation that predisposes the region to glaciation and modulates the pattern of climatic change. The spatial asymmetry of warming during the HTM resembles the pattern of warming observed in the Arctic over the last several decades. Although the two warmings are described at different temporal scales, and the HTM was additionally affected by the residual Laurentide ice, the similarities suggest there might be a preferred mode of variability in the atmospheric circulation that generates a recurrent pattern of warming under positive radiative forcing. Unlike the HTM, however, future warming will not be counterbalanced by the cooling effect of a residual North American ice sheet.  相似文献   

12.
Chlachula, J. & Serikov, Y. B. 2010: Last glacial ecology and geoarchaeology of the Central Trans‐Ural area: the Sosva River Upper Palaeolithic Complex, western Siberia. Boreas, 10.1111/j.1502‐3885.2010.00166.x. ISSN 0300‐9483. Quaternary and geoarchaeology studies from the eastern limits of the Ural Mountains provide multiple lines of evidence of the Palaeolithic peopling of this geographically marginal and still poorly explored territory of western Siberia following the mid‐last glacial (MIS 3) warming. A complex of investigated open‐air localities in the Sosva River basin (the north‐central Trans‐Ural area) at the periphery of the western Siberian Plain, distinguished by very high concentrations of Pleistocene megafaunal remains previously regarded as ‘mammoth cemeteries’, indicate, in conjunction with the associated diagnostic ivory/bone and stone industry, open occupation sites during the Last Glacial (MIS 2). Fossil faunal remains, dominated by mammoth (98%) together with bird and fish species, indicate various methods of exploitation of the Late Pleistocene natural resources and successful behavioural adaptation to the last glacial sub‐polar tundra‐steppe environment. The taphonomy and composition of the well‐preserved skeletal remains from the main occupation sites suggest both active hunting and anthropogenic ‘scavenging’ practices. The contextual geology and the cultural and biotic multi‐proxy records from the Trans‐Ural Upper Palaeolithic Complex provide new insights into the timing and palaeoecological conditions of the Pleistocene human occupation of north‐central Asia.  相似文献   

13.
A highly significant correlation was calculated between French wine harvest dates and central England summer temperature from 1659 to 1879 which harvest dates might be used to approximate western European summer temperatures for the pre-instrumental period. A proxy summer temperature index was thereby constructed which combined French and German wine harvest and central England temperature data. This index was significantly correlated with a tree-ring density prealpine Swiss summer temperature index from 1484 to 1973 and also with Northern Hemisphere annual temperatures from 1579 to 1973. Comparison of the proxy index with Alpine glaciation summaries showed highly significant relationships between glacial advance and intervals of below- median proxy temperature for all glacial studies combined and for the two most complete individual studies allowing a, even-year lag between temperature decline and glacial advance. The initial Little Ice Age glacial expansion around A.D. 1600 occurred towards the close of the longest below-median proxy temperature sequence which lasted from A.D. 1569 to 1604. Subsequent to this, glacial readvances were related to summer temperature declines of lesser duration or magnitude.  相似文献   

14.
《Quaternary Science Reviews》2007,26(13-14):1810-1817
Long high-resolution proxy records are valuable for understanding Asian Southwest Monsoon (ASM) dynamics on decadal to centennial timescales. A millennium long δ18O ice core record from the central Himalayas provides an opportunity to study the ASM variability on decadal to centennial timescales. The Dasuopu ice core δ18O record indicates that a relatively warm period corresponding with the Medieval Warm Period lasted from AD 1140s to 1390s, a notable warming trend is apparent from 1800s to 1990s, and several cool periods occurred between AD 1010–1130s, 1290–1330s, 1400–1460s, 1520s, 1590–1630s, 1740s, and 1770–1790s. Comparisons with other high-resolution monsoon proxy records from the Arabian Sea, south Oman, and southern China reveal a high correspondence between temperature changes in the central Himalayas and the ASM variability during the last 1000 years. A pronounced warming trend since AD 1670 coincides with an abrupt transition from a weak to a strong intensity of the ASM. The thermal conditions in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau and associated glacial boundary conditions may have been predominantly responsible for variations of the ASM intensity and for a latitudinal movement in the mean position of the ITCZ on decadal to centennial timescales.  相似文献   

15.
使用标准化壳体重量法和传统壳体重量法分别对中国南海(South China Sea,简称SCS)站表层沉积物和MD06-3052岩心沉积物样品进行了测试,获得了浮游有孔虫种属Globigerinoides ruber(G. ruber)的标准化壳体重量和传统壳体重量.通过对SCS站表层沉积物中G. ruber标准化壳体重量与传统壳体重量的比较,认为在该海域使用标准化壳体重量替代性指标能够更好的排除壳体粒径的干扰.通过对MD06-3052岩心中G. ruber标准化壳体重量与南极Vostok冰心的CO2浓度(pCO2)曲线进行对比,认为标准化壳体重量方法能够较好的反映出表层海水[CO32-]的变化.标准化壳体重量方法快速简便,指示性好,在探讨晚更新世以来表层海水在全球碳循环的重要作用中,是一个很有潜力的指标.   相似文献   

16.
晚第四纪风尘物质成分的变化及其环境意义   总被引：25，自引：0，他引：25       下载免费PDF全文
对长武和宜川晚第四纪黄土-古土壤序列的高分辨率铁含量分析表明,不同时期的风尘在化学成分上具有较明显的区别。在排除成壤过程中CaCO3淋溶和淀积的相对影响后,研究剖面的铁含量基本反映了原始风尘的铁含量。已有研究表明,西部源区的气溶胶和现代地表流沙中铁的相对含量显著高于东部源区。本文认为,风尘铁含量的变化反映了西部沙漠风尘对黄土堆积的相对贡献。由于西风带北支是西部源区风尘的主要搬运者,风尘中全铁含量可能反映了西风带北支气流的强度,并明显存在着千年尺度的变化。  相似文献   

17.
从钻孔温度看气候变化──方法介绍及实例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
地壳浅层的地温分布与过去一定时期的地表温度变化之间有着内在的联系，地温场记录着地表温度变化的历史。由于地表温度是描述气候变化的重要参数，通过对钻孔地温数据进行分析处理，可以达到研究古气候变化的目的。美国东北部、加拿大东南部和中国四川攀西地区若干钻孔地温剖面的反演结果一致表明，这些区域在过去数百年间地表温度均有不同程度的升高。与研究古气候的其他方法相比，地热方法具有理论基础牢固和现成数据基础庞大的突出特点，这一研究方法在世界范围的广泛应用必将有助于揭开全球气候变化的奥秘。  相似文献   

18.
In the temperate North Atlantic Ocean the ecological changes in coastal waters associated with a warming period in the 1930s were compared with the past couple of decades when the North Atlantic Oscillation was also positive. Long-term monitoring data sets from Rhode Island and nearby coastal waters were used to identify trends in the recent warming period. During both events winter water temperatures warmed above a mean value of 2.9°C from 1°C to 3°C. There was no apparent trend in the annual salinity cycle correlated with the increased temperature. During both periods boreal species declined, southern species increased, and widespread declines in eelgrass occurred. Estuaries on the western Atlantic Ocean during the recent warming period had phytoplankton biomass during the winter-spring bloom decrease, zooplankton number increase, and nutrients remain elevated due to enhanced zooplankton grazing. Zooplankton numbers decreased in summer due to enhanced ctenophore predation. In these waters the loss of boreal demersal fish has been compensated by an increase in demersal decapods. The very large ecological changes caused by small increases in seasonal temperature provide an insight to the large alterations that may be associated with global warming.  相似文献   

19.
The Himalayas are a key location for understanding centennial‐ to millennial‐scale variations in the Asian monsoon, yet few studies of the late Holocene have been conducted in this sensitive area. Direct evidence for shifts in monsoonal wind strength is often limited to marine proxy records, while terrestrial reconstructions (e.g. lake levels and spleothems) focus on precipitation. Here, we present the first evidence of terrestrial summer monsoon wind strength changes from Lake Rara, western Nepal, based on Mn/Ti ratios, a proxy for lake stratification. These data indicate a link between the Arabian Sea and the Himalayas, suggesting that centennial‐ to millennial‐scale changes in wind strength occurred synchronously. Distinct similarity is also observed between Lake Rara and the southern part of China, which may support previous suggestions that the southern part of China is influenced by Indian summer monsoon. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Several proxy data indicate an aridification of the East African climate during the Neogene, which might be influenced by the orographic changes of the East African Rift System (EARS) induced by tectonic forcing during the last 20 million years. To investigate the impact of the orography and especially of the rifts, the regional climate model CCLM is used, covering the EARS with Lake Victoria in the centre of the model domain. CCLM is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis and applied with a double-nesting method resulting in a very high spatial resolution of 7 km. The resolution clearly shows the shoulders and rifts of the western and eastern branch of the EARS and the Rwenzoris within the western branch. To analyse the orographic influence on climate, a new technique of modifying the orography is used in this sensitivity study. The shoulders of the branches are lowered and the rifts are elevated, resulting in a smoothed orography structure with less altitude difference between the shoulders and rifts. The changes in 2 m-temperature are very local and associated with the changes in the orography. The vertically integrated moisture transport is characterised by less vortices, and its zonal component is increased over the branches. The resulting amount of precipitation is mainly decreased west of the western branch and increased in the rift of the western branch. In the eastern branch, however, the changes in the amount of precipitation are not significant. The changes in the precipitation and temperature patterns lead to a shift of biomes towards a vegetation coverage characterised by more humid conditions in the northern part of the model domain and more arid conditions in the South. Thus, the aridification found in the proxy data can be attributed to the orographic changes of the rifts only in the northern model domain.  相似文献   

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