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1.
Midstream of the Keelung River Basin in Northern Taiwan has become highly urbanized and densely populated area. Flood inundation
along riversides frequently occurred during typhoons or rainstorms. Three protection measures, including constructions of
high-level protection levees, a diversion channel, and a detention reservoir, were proposed for flood mitigation. The main
purpose of this study is to evaluate the flood mitigation performance of the three proposed structural measures by using combined
hydrologic analyses and hydraulic routings. A semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoirs rainfall-runoff model was used
for estimating the surface runoff. Furthermore, a 1-D dynamic channel routing model was coupled with a two-dimensional inundation
model to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of river flooding and overland flow. Simulation results of flood stages, runoff
peak discharges, and inundation extent under design rainfall scenarios were chosen as the criteria for evaluation. The results
showed a diversion channel is superior to the other two measures for flood mitigation of the study area. After the process
of environmental impact assessment, a revised diversion channel approach has been approved for construction as the major structural
measure. 相似文献
2.
Flash flood routing modeling for levee-breaks and overbank flows due to typhoon events in a complicated river system 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
There has been a yearly increase in precipitation in Taiwan, consistent with trends seen across the world. In the summer and
fall, typhoons or tropical cyclones with torrential rainfall frequently occur as a result of Taiwan’s subtropical climate.
Flash floods may cause a levee-break and/or the overtopping of banks at narrow neck locations in a river system, which may
in turn produce inundation in urban areas. Therefore, a model that predicts flash floods is of vital importance for river
management. The present study is based on a flash flood routing model, which incorporates levee-break and overbank functions
to calculate the discharge hydrographs in the complicated Danshuei River system of northern Taiwan. The numerical model was
calibrated and verified against observed water stages using three typhoon events. The results indicate reasonable agreement
between the model simulations and the observed data. The model was then used to calculate the levee-break and overbank flow
hydrographs due to Typhoon Talim (2005) and Typhoon Nari (2001), respectively. The simulated results indicate that several
parameters significantly affect the flow hydrograph during a levee-break and should be carefully monitored when levee-break
events occur in the river system. The simulated water stages at several stations are consistent with observed data from Typhoon
Nari. The simulated overbank flow results quantitatively agree with reported information. The data also confirm that most
of the overbank events occurred at the upper reaches of the Keelung River, consistent with the low levee height protection. 相似文献
3.
施工期导流动态风险不仅与水文不确定性、水力不确定性有关,而且与坝体施工进度及其完工工期的不确定性有关。以风险分析为核心,将各种不确定性因素耦合起来研究施工导流系统的综合风险,提出施工进度计划风险分析模型和假定坝体施工进度确定条件下的施工导流风险分析模型,在此基础上,建立基于Monte-Carlo方法全面考虑水文水力不确定性以及施工进度不确定性的施工导流系统综合风险分析模型。实例分析说明,该施工导流系统综合风险研究方法和分析模型是可靠的、适用的。 相似文献
4.
Farshid Vahedifard Sona Sehat James V. Aanstoos 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(3):257-271
This study investigated the importance of rainfall and various geomorphological and geometrical factors to the vulnerability of earthen levees to slump slides. The study was performed using a database including 34 slump slides that occurred in the lower Mississippi River levee system from 2008 to 2009. The impact of rainfall within the six months prior to slide occurrence was studied for 23 slides for which an accurate occurrence date was available. Several variables were used to develop a logistic regression model to predict the probability of slump slide occurrence. The proposed model was verified for both slide and non-slide cases. The regression analysis depicts the impact of channel width, river sinuosity index, riverbank erosion, channel shape condition and distance to river. Excluding the sinuosity index, the impact of the other independent variables examined was found to be significant. Occurrence of riverbank erosion around the slide locations was the most significant predictor factor. A channel width of less than 1000?m was ranked as the second most significant variable. The proposed model can aid in locating high-risk areas on levees in order to take prompt protective measures, increase monitoring efforts and enable early response under emergency conditions. 相似文献
5.
以板桥河左岸堤防加固工程为背景,提出了一条基于确定性渗流有限元进行堤防渗透破坏风险分析的途径,并对板桥河堤防渗透破坏风险进行了分析研究,根据分析结果对堤防渗透稳定性进行了评价。所采用研究方法发挥了有限元的优点,能够模拟堤防场地土层实际分布情况,较准确地计算洪水位下运行堤防背水面水力坡降。根据“端点组合-单调性法”理论和“3?”法则,通过1995年堤防典型破圩实例建立起整个堤防的抗渗临界水力坡降、渗透破坏风险率的临界值以及堤防汛期防渗的警戒水位,对整个板桥河堤防渗透稳定性评价工作具有非常重要的意义,其分析方法以及研究思路可供同类堤防工程的渗透稳定性评价工作借鉴。 相似文献
6.
Slope Stability Analysis of Earthen Levee Strengthened by High Performance Turf Reinforcement Mat under Hurricane Overtopping Flow Conditions 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The slope stability of levees during hurricane overtopping conditions involving storm surge and wind generated wave action is an important aspect to assess the safety of earthen levees. A comprehensive slope stability investigation was conducted in this study for an earthen levee subjected to full-scale overtopping scenarios, including storm surge only overflow, wave only overtopping, and combined wave and surge overtopping conditions. The crest and the landside of the levee were strengthened by high performance turf reinforcement mat (HPTRM) to protect against overtopping erosion. A conceptual model for HPTRM strengthened levee as well as a methodology for analysis and incorporation of various overtopping flow conditions in levee slope stability is presented. The findings of this study indicate that HPTRM strengthening of the levee improves the stability of the levee significantly during wave only as well as combined storm surge and wave overtopping conditions. However, during the storm surge conditions, the factor of safety is only improved slightly as a result of strengthening of the levee by HPTRM. 相似文献
7.
《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2013,8(2):76-85
Although an important aspect of the assessment of safety of earthen levees is the consideration for its global stability, little is known regarding the slope stability of levees during hurricane overtopping conditions involving storm surge and wind generated wave action. In this study, a comprehensive slope stability investigation was undertaken where an earthen levee, representing full-scale overtopping conditions, was subjected to storm surge only overflow, wave only overtopping and combined wave and surge overtopping conditions. The crest and the landside of the levee were strengthened by roller-compacted concrete (RCC) to protect against overtopping. This paper presents a conceptual model for an RCC strengthened levee as well as a methodology for analysis and incorporation of various overtopping flow conditions in levee slope stability. The findings of this study indicate that RCC strengthening of the levee improves the stability of the levee significantly during wave only as well as combined storm surge and wave overtopping conditions. However, strengthening of the levee by RCC does not increase the factor of safety during the storm surge conditions. 相似文献
8.
Abdolreza Osouli Parham Safarian Bahri 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2018,36(5):2823-2838
Characterizing soil erosion and predicting levee erosion rates for various levee soils and storm conditions during floodwall overtopping events is necessary in designing levee-floodwall systems. In this study, a series of laboratory scaled levee-floodwall erosion tests were conducted to determine erosion characteristics of fine grained soils subject to overtopping from different floodwall heights with variable flow-rates. A decreasing rate of erosion was observed as a pool of water was generated in the created scour hole at the crest of the levee model. The erosion rates were also assessed using jet erosion test (JET) and erosion function apparatus (EFA) tests. The results of levee-floodwall overtopping along with soil geotechnical characteristics such as plasticity index, compaction level, and saturation level of the levee soils as well as hydraulic parameters such as water overtopping velocity were used to develop a levee-floodwall erosion rate prediction model. Then, the results of JET and EFA were integrated to develop another prediction model for levee-floodwall erosion rate estimation. Consequently, the prediction models were evaluated by conducting additional tests and comparing the prediction results with the actual measured erosion rates. 相似文献
9.
临界雨量是一个关键的山洪灾害预警指标。按其技术原理将临界雨量推求方法划分为数据驱动的统计归纳法和基于灾变物理机制的水文水力学法分别进行评述,并介绍了临界雨量指标的两个拓展:动态临界雨量和暴雨临界曲线,综述了临界雨量不确定性分析的研究进展。通过综述发现:中国目前主要应用的是较简单的统计归纳法;临界雨量推求主要考虑前期降雨量（前期土壤饱和度）和时段累积降雨量两个因素的影响或仅后者一个;临界雨量指标难以反映山洪灾害的规模;考虑临界雨量不确定性有助于提高预警质量,但如何充分考虑其影响仍然是一个挑战。 相似文献
10.
Without any omen, massive landslides induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake blocked up gorges of Ching-Shui creek, and produced a new landslide lake.Although emergency spillways have been constructed to prevent dam failures,overtopping and possible breaching may still occur due to excessive inflows in raining seasons. As a result, the downstream valleys will have serious inundation and the safety of people and properties will be in immediate danger. The purpose of this work is to simulate and to analyze the inundation potentials downstream of Tsao-Ling landslide lake using a hydrologic/hydraulic approach and GIS (Geographic Information System) technology. Hydrologic analysis is employed to describe regional rainfall-runoff characteristics andto design rainfall/runoff scenarios. One-dimensional dam break flood routings are performed with different return periods of rainfall events and dam failure durations for downstream creeks. The depletion hydrographs of dam break routings are applied into two-dimensional overland flow simulations for downstream lowlands. The results of hydraulic computations are evaluated with GIS maps for inundation potentials analysis, which can be usedto assist the planning of emergency response measures. 相似文献
11.
利用热带降雨观测计划(TRMM)卫星雷达降雨数据驱动分布式陆面水文模型,研究流域尺度陆面水文过程,评估该数据在水文模拟与预报等研究领域的性能。通过与实测雨量资料比较,验证TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据的质量。分别将TRMM卫星雷达降雨与观测降雨作为耦合模型的气象输入,模拟和研究淮河流域1998~2003年的陆面水文过程时空变化。结果表明,TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据能够很好地描述降雨的时空分布,利用TRMM降雨模拟的结果与利用观测降雨模拟的结果精度相当;模拟流量与实测资料基本吻合。卫星雷达降雨数据在陆面水文过程研究中具有广泛的应用前景。 相似文献
12.
Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin
is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless
changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing significant damage in the
area. In this study, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the basin and the riverbed are determined by calibrating the hydraulic
module of the MIKE 11 modeling system with the observed 1991 flood. Then, for the 25-, 50- and 100-year floods the highest
water levels in the river are forecasted by integration of the MIKE 11 hydrologic and hydraulic modules. Afterwards, inundation
maps are obtained by using together the hydraulic and GIS modules of the MIKE 11 system. 相似文献
13.
14.
Typhoon Aere swept over Taiwan with heavy rain, which induced huge discharge in the Danshuei River in August 2004. The flood
in the Danshuei River intruded Sanchung through a culvert that was under construction. The deluge inundated thousands of premises
and resulted in severe damage. This study reconstructs the event scenario using hydrologic and hydraulic methods to analyse
the causes of the disaster. We integrated the radar rainfall estimations and rain gauge observations to recreate the temporal
and spatial varied precipitation inputs; estimated the influent volume from the culvert using hydrologic equations; and simulated
the flood dynamic within the study area during the event with a coupled overland and sewer flow model. The evidence showed
that both the rainfall and the culvert flow contributed similar flood volume to the study area, but culvert discharge concentrated
at single location within short time period such that the local drainage system could not cope with and notable damage was
incurred. 相似文献
15.
为研究梯级水库漫坝连溃的风险,并探索贝叶斯网络在水库连溃风险分析中的可行性,通过构建洪水作用下双库连溃的贝叶斯网络模型,并选取四川省大渡河上两相邻梯级水库进行分析,以推求水库漫（溃）坝概率及评估连溃风险。分析过程表明贝叶斯网络方法能直观、简便地分析多风险源共同作用下的水库群连溃风险问题。结果表明,两水库天然洪水漫坝条件概率的数量级均为10-6,洪水引发单库漫坝风险较小;正常蓄水位以上,上游水库溃坝洪水致下游水库漫坝条件概率超0.8,即上游水库溃坝导致水库连溃的风险很大。 相似文献
16.
Hydraulic and flood-loss modeling of levee,floodplain, and river management strategies,Middle Mississippi River,USA 总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2
In this investigation, four scenarios were used to quantify the balance between the benefits of levees for flood protection
and their potential to increase flood risk using Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard flood-loss software and hydraulic modeling of the
Middle Mississippi River (MMR). The goals of this study were (1) to quantify the flood exposure under different flood-control
configurations and (2) to assess the relative contributions of various engineered structures and flood-loss strategies to
potential flood losses. Removing all the flood-control structures along the MMR, without buyouts or other mitigation, reduced
the average flood stages between 2.3 m (100-year flood) and 2.5 m (500-year), but increased the potential flood losses by
$4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region
by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by $4.3–6.7 billion. Removing the agricultural levees downstream of St. Louis decreased the flood stages through the metro region
by ~1.0 m for the 100- and 500-year events; flood losses, without buyouts or other mitigation, were increased by 155 million
for the 100-year flood, but were decreased by $109 million for the 500-year flood. Thus, agricultural levees along the MMR
protect against small- to medium-size floods (up to the ~100-year flood level) but cause more damage than they prevent during
large floods such as the 500-year flood. Buyout costs for the all the buildings within the 500-year floodplain downstream
of urban flood-control structures near St. Louis are ~40% less than the cost of repairing the buildings damaged by the 500-year
flood. This suggests large-scale buyouts could be the most cost-effective option for flood loss mitigation for properties
currently protected by agricultural levees. 相似文献
17.
为防治漫顶引起侵蚀造成堤坝破坏,将微生物诱导碳酸钙沉淀即MICP技术应用于加固堤坝表层。通过向堤坝表层喷洒微生物细胞以及营养盐,最终在砂土孔隙中快速析出碳酸钙胶凝结晶,以改善堤坝表层砂的力学性能。首先,采用喷洒法处理堤坝表层;其次,对处理好的堤坝模型进行水槽试验,研究其抗侵蚀性;最后,对堤坝表层的试样进行强度与渗透试验。试验结果表明,采用MICP技术加固堤坝模型表层可有效提高其抗侵蚀力,防治由漫顶引起的堤坝破坏。对加固后的表层取样进行测试,结果表明：无侧限抗压强度可高达9 MPa,渗透系数从4×10?4 m/s 降低至7.2×10?7 m/s。试验说明,微生物胶结技术在加固堤坝表层方面具有潜在的工程实用价值和广阔的应用前景。 相似文献
18.
为了解决由降雨强度引起的径流汇流的非线性问题,提出一种基于SCS(United States Department of Agriculture-Soil Conservation Service)流速公式的时变分布式单位线计算方法。引入参考雨强表征SCS公式中流速系数对应的水力条件。由降雨过程的时段雨强与参考雨强的比值构成一个量纲一因子,将该因子加入SCS公式后使其能够考虑降雨对流速的影响。改进后的流速公式用于计算一次降雨过程中不同降雨时段对应的时变分布式单位线,时变分布式单位线与新安江模型的产流模块构成降雨径流模型,将模型用于裴河流域率定参考雨强。率定后的模型用于谭家河流域进行应用检验,结果显示,确定性系数大于等于0.9的洪水场次,由时不变单位线的42%增大为83%。提出的方法能够显著提高流域水文模型的降雨径流模拟能力。 相似文献
19.
降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测模型 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
通过分析SHALSTAB和TRIGRS等浅层滑坡物理确定性模型存在的问题,提出了基于降雨入渗动态守恒的瞬态降雨入渗模型,该模型考虑了初期降雨过程、降雨历程以及饱和非饱和入渗过程,证明了SHALSTAB模型是该模型的特殊形式,并克服了TRIGRS模型参数繁多及一维入渗路径的问题.将无限边坡模型、瞬态降雨入渗模型和GIS进行耦合,研发了可用于大范围降雨型浅层滑坡危险性预测的集成系统,根据边坡的地质条件、地形参数和降雨特征即可对降雨条件下浅层滑坡的危险性进行评估. 相似文献
20.
We investigate the uncertainty in bedrock depth and soil hydraulic parameters on the stability of a variably-saturated slope in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We couple Monte Carlo simulation of a three-dimensional flow model with numerical limit analysis to calculate confidence intervals of the safety factor using a 22-day rainfall record. We evaluate the marginal and joint impact of bedrock depth and soil hydraulic uncertainty. The mean safety factor and its 95% confidence interval evolve rapidly in response to the storm events. Explicit recognition of uncertainty in the hydraulic properties and depth to bedrock increases significantly the probability of failure. 相似文献