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1.
Tiodora Hadumaon Siagian Purhadi Purhadi Suhartono Suhartono Hamonangan Ritonga 《Natural Hazards》2014,70(2):1603-1617
Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and situated at the joining point of four major world tectonic plates. Regions of Indonesia are highly prone to various natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Some recent major natural hazard events are the 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Nias and the 2010 Mount Merapi volcanic eruptions in Central Java. In parallel with advancement in knowledge of the existing hazards, the importance of social aspects of vulnerability in mitigating natural hazards has been acknowledged by the Indonesian government. However, to date, there is no institutionalized effort for assessing social vulnerability to natural hazards that would cover all the districts of Indonesia. Accordingly, no comprehensive profile of social vulnerability is available as basis information for developing strategies to prevent larger risk and losses and reduce vulnerability of communities in Indonesia. Only a few studies have been conducted in Indonesia on this field. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the social vulnerability of Indonesian districts to natural hazards, determining its driving factors and mapping its variations. The social vulnerability index (SoVI) approach is utilized in this study. Three main driving factors affecting social vulnerability in Indonesia are found: ‘socioeconomic status and infrastructure,’ ‘gender, age and population growth’ and ‘family structure.’ The combination of SoVI with thematic map utilizing ArcView GIS can be used to identify districts with relative high social vulnerability level. The results can support the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs of the impacts of natural hazards in Indonesia. 相似文献
2.
J. Zeng Z. Y. Zhu J. L. Zhang T. P. Ouyang S. F. Qiu Y. Zou T. Zeng 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,65(1):173-182
Social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards aims to identify vulnerable populations and provide decision makers with
scientific basis for their disaster prevention and mitigation decisions. A new method based on remote sensing is presented
here to establish a model of social vulnerability for county-scale regions that lack of relative data. To calculate population
density, which is the most important indicator in social vulnerability assessment, first, a statistical model is established
to estimate the population on village level. Then a new concept defined as “population density based on land use” is created
to replace the arithmetic population density. The former has taken the dynamic human distribution related to land use into
account; thus, it can map the population distribution more realistically. The other two indicators are age structure and distance
to hospital. The application of this method to the Luogang District of Guangzhou, South China demonstrated its capability
of providing high spatial resolution and reasonable social vulnerability for social vulnerability assessment of natural hazards. 相似文献
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三峡库区地质灾害易损性模糊综合评价 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
地质灾害是灾害危险性对承灾体易损性综合作用的结果,减灾应从减少地质灾害的发生频率和降低其易损性入手,限于目前的科学水平,人们难以改变地质灾害的发生过程,那么降低地质灾害易损性就成为减灾的重要措施,因此进行灾害易损性评价就显得尤为重要。本文以三峡库区为研究区,选取人口密度、国内生产总值密度等指标,运用模糊综合评判对其进行了定量评估。由于各指标因子在地质灾害易损性中的作用具有模糊性,因此运用模糊模型进行评价具有一定的意义。将库区地质灾害易损性程度划分为4个等级,研究结果表明,三峡库区地质灾害易损性程度总体较高。易损度较高的地区应强化减灾意识、调整人口结构以及加大防灾投入,以降低本地区的地质灾害易损性。 相似文献
5.
This paper presents a new method for quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in China. As an important area of vulnerability research, quantitative assessment of vulnerability has raised much focus in academia. Presently, scholars have proposed a variety of methods for quantitative assessment, which usually create an index of overall vulnerability from a suite of indicators, based on the understanding of the cause or mechanism of vulnerability. However, due to the complex nature of vulnerability, this approach caused some arguments on the indicator selection and the weight set for subindices. A data envelopment analysis?Cbased model for the assessment of the regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional methods, and a new approach for the classification of vulnerability is proposed. The vulnerability to natural hazards in China??s mainland is illustrated as a case study. The result shows that the overall level of vulnerability to natural hazards in mainland China is high. The geographic pattern shows that vulnerability is highest in western China, followed by diminishing vulnerability in central China, and lowest vulnerability levels in eastern China. There is a negative correlation between the level of vulnerability and the level of regional economic development. 相似文献
6.
Risk assessment of earth fracture hazards is particularly useful for regulatory, managerial, and decision-making purposes at all levels of government. A three-map method that includes intrinsic vulnerability, specific vulnerability, and hazard maps is developed to assess the earth fracture hazards in Yuci City, Shanxi, China. The intrinsic (natural) vulnerability map is based on the assessment of various natural factors by coupling the technologies of a Geographical Information System (GIS) to an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The specific vulnerability map is generated by coupling the technologies of a GIS and an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to the overlapping principles of multiple geo-information systems, the hazard map is therefore defined by overlapping the intrinsic and specific vulnerability maps using a spatial-operation function in the GIS. Unlike the intrinsic vulnerability map, the hazard map takes into account human activities and the importance of the area to be assessed. The proposed three-map approach is not only scientifically valuable, but provides a more realistic assessment of earth fracture hazards as well. 相似文献
7.
自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展 总被引：12，自引：2，他引：10
在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。 相似文献
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Assessing multifaceted vulnerability and resilience in order to design risk-mitigation strategies 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
Scira Menoni Daniela Molinari Dennis Parker Francesco Ballio Sue Tapsell 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(3):2057-2082
Vulnerability studies have evolved significantly in recent decades. Although not overly theoretical compared with some other fields of science, some important conceptual progress has been made. At the practical level, vulnerability indicators have been used either at a generic level or for particular hazard contexts. However, these indicators are often predictably too narrow in their coverage of aspects of vulnerability. An important need remains to produce more conceptually informed vulnerability indicators or parameters and more satisfactory operational tools to assess weaknesses and resilience in coping with natural risks. In this paper, we present the methodology developed in the context of a recently concluded EU funded project, ENSURE (Enhancing resilience of communities and territories facing natural and na-tech hazards). The resulting vulnerability and resilience assessment framework tool adopts a systemic approach embedding and integrating as much as possible the multifaceted and articulated nature of concepts such as vulnerability and resilience. The tool guides evaluators towards a comprehensive and context-related understanding of strengths and fragilities of a given territory and community with respect to natural extremes. In this paper, both the framework tool and its application to Sondrio in Italy, which is exposed to flash floods, are presented and discussed. The merits and demerits of the new tool are discussed, and the results of the application to Sondrio indicate where data are currently missing, suggesting the kind of data, which will need to be gathered in future to achieve more complete assessments. The results also suggest vulnerability reduction policies and actions and further ways of revising the existing framework tool in the future. 相似文献
9.
在地下水水质现状、地下水污染趋势、含水层固有脆弱性、污染源荷载风险、地下水污染危害性五个要素的基础上建立了地下水污染预警评价指标体系,利用GIS组件开发技术,与地下水污染预警模型相结合,采用VB.NET+Arc GIS和Engine+Access集成的组件式GIS二次开发模式,开发可脱离GIS平台独立运行的地下水污染预警系统。系统可分别进行研究区域的水质评价、水质预测、含水层固有脆弱性评价、污染源荷载风险计算、污染风险评价、污染预警分析。对典型水源地地区地下水环境污染的警度进行识别,对即将可能出现的警情进行预报,并依据警度划分了防护治理区、重点防护区和一般防护区,提出了相应的防治措施,为政府部门制定地下水污染防治规划服务。 相似文献
10.
Christian Kuhlicke Anna Scolobig Sue Tapsell Annett Steinführer Bruna De Marchi 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(2):789-810
Social vulnerability is a term that has been widely used in the natural hazards literature for quite a few years now. Yet, regardless of how scholars
define the term, the approaches and indicators they use remain contested. This article presents findings from social vulnerability
assessments conducted in different case studies of flood events in Europe (Germany, Italy and the UK). The case studies relied
upon a common set of comparable indicators, but they also adopted a context-sensitive, qualitative approach. A shared finding
across the case studies was that it was not possible to identify a common set of socio-economic–demographic indicators to
explain social vulnerability of groups and/or individuals for all phases of the disastrous events. Similarly, network-related
indicators as well as location- and event-specific indicators did not have the relevance we expected them to have. The results
underline that vulnerability is a product of specific spatial, socio-economic–demographic, cultural and institutional contexts
imposing not only specific challenges to cross-country research concerning social vulnerability to flooding but also to attempts
at assessing social vulnerability in general. The study ends with some reflections upon the methodological, practical and
theoretical implications of our findings. 相似文献
11.
DRASTIC模型评价地下水系统脆弱性中的GIS应用——以河北沧州地区为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
地下水是水资源的重要组成部份,地下水污染危害人的健康,影响人们的生产和生活,查明某一地区地下水容易受污染的可能性即地下水脆弱性,能为管理决策部门提供合理开发地下水资源,防治地下水污染的科学规划和管理依据。在脆弱性评价工作中,应用GIS技术完成地下水系统脆弱性编图,并进行地下水环境保护功能分区,是查明某一示范区地下水脆弱性的可靠手段和科学依据。本文以河北省沧州地区为例,以DRASTIC模型的七项评价因子为脆弱性评价指标,利用MAPGIS为平台实现地下水脆弱性编图,方便从事地下水工作的管理人员及时掌握地下水污染动态、空间分布及演化趋势。 相似文献
12.
In the last decades, floods have increased in frequency all over the world due to diverse phenomena such as climate change, extended urbanization, land use, etc. Their social, cultural, economic and environmental impacts have also grown significantly, highlighting the need for the development of further studies and improved methods to manage and mitigate flood risk, mainly in urban areas. Historic sites need particular attention in this field, not only because the high and irreplaceable cultural value of these areas, but also taking into account that the constructive typologies that they host are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards. In consequence of that, the analysis of the phenomena, the evaluation of their consequences and the adoption of adequate mitigation and preparedness measures are presently a fundamental societal challenge. Having this in mind, the present paper aims at proposing an innovative methodology focused on the assessment of flood vulnerability in historic sites through the evaluation of a set of exposure and sensitivity indicators. From the analysis of these indicators, it is possible to obtain a Flood Vulnerability Index capable of measuring the spread of flood vulnerability over an extended area. The historic centre of Guimarães, in Portugal, declared by UNESCO as a World Heritage Site in 2001, is used here as a pilot case study to apply and discusses the preliminary version of the approach. Although some improvements are still needed, this approach can be already used to provides preliminary vulnerability scenarios and to point the way to the definition of more efficient and customized strategies for managing and mitigating flood risk in historic sites. Moreover, with further improvements and calibrations resorting to larger and more diverse data, it will be possible to reduce some of the uncertainties currently involved in the assessment process and to make its application wider and more robust.
相似文献13.
岩溶地下水系统防污性能评价方法 总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9
岩溶水系统结构复杂,不同类型岩溶区具有不同的岩溶水文地质特征,其地下水系统防污性能评价必须采用不同指标体系的评价模型。本文在对不同类型岩溶区发育特征分析基础上,分别就现有评价模型在不同类型岩溶区的适应性进行了分析,认为:埋藏型岩溶区可采用专门用于承压含水层防污性能评价的PTHQET模型进行评价,而对于补给区局部裸露的浅埋藏性岩溶区建议采用COP模型进行评价;EPIK模型适用于南方裸露岩溶区;北方裸露型岩溶区因表层岩溶带发育程度弱,亦可采用COP模型进行评价。针对覆盖型岩溶的特殊性,在欧洲模型基础上提出了PLEIK评价模型,评价因子包括保护性盖层(P)、土地类型与利用程度(L)、表层岩溶带发育强度(E)、补给类型(I)和岩溶网络发育情况(K);突出了P(保护性盖层)和L(土地利用类型)两个因子的作用,并赋予各因子比欧洲模型更丰富的内涵,同时采用多种可替代参数确定各因子量值,最后给出了防污性能指数计算方法与分级标准。 相似文献
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The impacting factors of vulnerability to natural hazards in China: an analysis based on structural equation model 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Le–Le Zou 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(1):57-70
The vulnerability to natural hazard is one of the inner characteristics of social economic system, which is determined and
impacted by various factors from almost all the aspects of the system. Although it is widely agreed that the economic development,
the migration, and the equity of resource allocation are among the most important impacting factors in forming and developing
of the vulnerability, their interrelationship is still unclear enough. The study in this paper employs the method of structural
equation model to discover the interrelationship between different latent impacting factors, as well as their contributions
to the vulnerability of the system to natural hazards. It is found that, among the factors relating social and economic development,
the equity of income allocation is a key point. Also the impacts from industrialization are different for different development
levels. The conclusions are expected to be helpful references for the decision consideration of the local development strategies. 相似文献
15.
利用GIS技术有效地管理城市地下管线 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
随着城市现代化建设步伐不断加快，城区内的各类基础设施也在不断地扩建和改造，为避免在建设过程中可能发生的意外，以及最大限度地降低各种因自然灾害造成的城市基础设施损害。采用现代化的信息管理手段。利用GIS技术管理城市地下管线，正受到城市规划和建设部门的普遍重视。介绍了舍肥测绘设计研究院利用CIS技术建立舍肥市地下管线信息系统中的一些技术方法和经验。 相似文献
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Prioritization of disaster risk was carried out for a community in Toronto, Canada. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used for spatial analysis, including spatial overlays and clipping for extracting spatial and attribute information related to people’s vulnerability, critical infrastructure and landuse. In order to determine disaster risk, the overall community vulnerability was evaluated by combining social, economic, physical and environmental vulnerabilities. This paper uses the propane explosion incident as the case in point to demonstrate the methodology and procedure used to evaluate risk using GIS techniques. City of Toronto spatial data have been integrated with the study area to gather landuse information, identify risk zones based on the propane storage facility location and evaluate risks. Statistics Canada 2006 census data have been used for area demographics and people’s social and economic status. Vulnerability indicators were determined based on the GIS-derived spatial and attribute data for the hazard and evacuation zones followed by a quantitative spatial risk estimation and ranking. The methodology of this study, based on the risk evaluation and prioritization conducted, can be applied to future decision making in effective landuse planning and the development of risk management strategies. 相似文献
18.
由于城市轨道交通建设逐年增多,新建隧道与既有桥梁间冲突愈发明显。针对盾构隧道穿越既有桥梁施工风险问题,基于系统思想引入C-V-T模型将待评工程风险划为后果严重性（C）、既有桥梁系统脆弱性（V）与新建隧道系统威胁性（T）,构建致灾-承灾-灾后三系统风险评估流程。引入双因素突变理论并建立三级指标体系,得出既有桥梁突变级数,以定量表达脆弱性。采用交互矩阵衡量新建隧道指标间交叉影响,给出指标-系统权法,并利用多维云及正向发生器优化算法,客观表达多定量指标与定性概念间复杂映射关系及转换态势,以提升T值准确性。明确了后果严重性分级标准,给出三系统风险评估结果耦合方法,由此构建盾构穿越既有桥梁施工风险综合评估模型。将该模型应用于昆明地铁5号线穿越怡心桥工程风险评估中,评估结果与工程实际情况吻合,施工监测数据验证了评估模型的合理性、规范性与适用性。该研究成果有效保证了施工期间桥梁安全与正常使用,可为近似工程提供借鉴与参考。 相似文献
19.
Agriculture communities in the Himalayas are disproportionately vulnerable due to the emerging challenges from climatic and non-climatic stressors. In this study, we systematically review peer-reviewed literature focused on vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities (n = 26) in the five Himalayan countries (Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan). We examine the yearly distribution, geographical scale, methodological approach, stress in consideration, indicators used, and assessment communication methods of the reviewed papers. Our findings indicate that vulnerability assessment of agriculture communities in the Himalayas is a recent practice, as all of the reviewed articles were published after 2007. About 62% of the assessments were conducted at local (household, community, and village) level, and few assessments at sub-national (19%) and basin (12%) levels. Indicator-based methods using primary quantitative data were most common (54%). Further, 90% of the studies addressed vulnerability to a single stressor with 50% of papers dealing with the vulnerability of agriculture communities to climate change and/or climate variability. From the analysis of the literature, it was found that multi-level, multi-stress, and comprehensive socio-ecological assessments were seldom attempted. Mostly the studies were done in isolated pockets and failed to identify the patterns of vulnerability. We advocate that to holistically understand the vulnerability-creating and differentiating mechanisms in agriculture communities, vulnerability assessment should adopt a multi-level approach by integrating both social and ecological determinants, firstly to identify the hotspots of vulnerability and then to deeply understand the root causes in the identified hotspots through integrated analysis. 相似文献
20.
Hazardous industrial sites have always represented a threat for the community often provoking major accidents overcoming the
boundaries of the plants and affecting the surrounding urban areas. If the industrial sites are located in natural hazard-prone
areas, technological accidents may be triggered by natural events, generating so-called na-tech events which may modify and
increase the impact and the overall damage in the areas around them. Nevertheless, natural and technological hazards are still
treated as two separate issues, and up to now the methods for na-tech risk assessment have been developed mainly for specific
natural hazards, generally restricted to some plant typologies and to the area of the plant itself. Based on a review of the
current na-tech literature, this article illustrates a risk assessment method as a supporting tool for land use planning strategies
aimed at reducing na-tech risk in urban areas. More specifically, a multi attribute decision-making method, combined with
fuzzy techniques, has been developed. The method allows planners to take into account, according to different territorial
units, all the individual na-tech risk factors, measured through both quantitative and qualitative parameters, while providing
them with a na-tech risk index, useful to rank the territorial units and to single out the priority intervention areas. The
method is designed to process information generally available about hazardous plants (safety reports), natural hazards (hazard
maps) and features of urban systems mainly influencing their exposure and vulnerability to na-tech events (common statistical
territorial data). Furthermore, the method implemented into a GIS framework should easily provide planners with comparable
maps to figure out the hazard factors and the main territorial features influencing the exposure and vulnerability of urban
systems to na-tech events. The method has been tested on a middle-sized Municipality in the Campania Region, identified as
2nd class seismic zone, according to the Ordinance 3274/2003, in which a LPG storage plant, classified as a plant with major
accident potential by the Seveso II Directive (art. 9), is located just within the city core. 相似文献