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1.
西藏扎布耶盐湖水位Winters和ARIMA模型分析   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
齐文  郑绵平 《湖泊科学》2006,18(1):21-28
由于温室效应,气温加速上升,我国西部干旱一半干旱盐湖区盐湖水位出现加速下降或上升等变化.藏北高原湖泊众多,但都缺少湖水位的人工观测记录.中国地质科学院盐湖中心自1990年始在西藏扎布耶盐湖建立了长期科学观测站,进行水位动态观测,积累了连续13年珍贵的数据.如何根据湖泊水位历史记录数据,准确的定量预测水位中短期变化,是关系着盐湖资源开发命运的大事.本文用Winters线性和季节性指数平滑法、ARIMA乘积季节模型两种时间序列分析方法,根据西藏扎布耶盐湖1991年1月-2003年12月水位变化的时间序列数据,探讨了两种时间序列数据的预测方法在盐湖水位动态变化预测中的应用.  相似文献   

2.
Özgür Kişi 《水文研究》2009,23(14):2081-2092
This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
梁新歌  王涵  赵爽  宋春桥 《湖泊科学》2023,35(6):2111-2122
在全球气候变暖和极端气候事件增加的背景下,流域水文循环过程受到的影响越来越强烈,导致湖泊水位变化表现出复杂的时空特征。而泛北极地区是地球上湖泊数量与面积分布最为集中的区域之一,该地区湖泊对气候变化响应非常敏感。因此,了解这些湖泊近期水文变化特征十分必要。本研究共搜集了36个泛北极大型湖泊(>500 km2)基于遥感或站点观测的近20年水位数据,分析其时空变化特征。本文使用线性回归模型来估算湖泊水位的变化趋势,进而利用皮尔逊相关分析了其主要水文影响变量和大气环流机制,并运用Mann-Kendall突变检验法探讨了水位突变的原因。结果表明,泛北极湖泊的水位整体上呈现不同程度上升(平均速率为0.013 m/a),有23个(64%)湖泊的水位呈上升趋势;研究湖泊中有10个通过90%统计显著性检验。其中,水位上升速率最大的湖泊是位于哈萨克斯坦的腾吉兹湖,上升速率为0.078 m/a。泛北极湖泊水位的波动主要与径流有关,有19个(53%)湖泊的水位波动与径流的增加更为相关;相比而言,位于亚洲的极地湖泊水位的上升与流域蒸发的降低显著相关,尤其是库苏古尔湖。从区域大气环流影响来看,泛北极湖泊水位变化主要与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动有关,其次是北极涛动和北大西洋涛动。本研究有助于加深对泛北极湖泊近20年水位变化规律及气候影响特征的科学理解。  相似文献   

4.
Lozovik  P. A.  Zobkov  M. B.  Borodulina  G. S.  Tokarev  I. V. 《Water Resources》2019,46(1):94-102
Water Resources - External water exchange of bays of the lakes Onega (Kondopoga and Petrozavodsk bays) and Ladoga (Hiidenselkä Bay), considering the exchange with the lake water, was assessed...  相似文献   

5.
Lake studies play an important role in water management, ecology and other environmental issues. Monitoring lake stages is typically the first step on the lake studies. However, for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America with millions of small lakes and potholes, onsite measurements for lake stages are almost impossible with the conventional gage stations due to the limited accessibility to lakes and the requirement of economical and human resources. To overcome this limitation, we employed the remote‐sensing approach to extract lake stages in PPR for bulk processing. To estimate lake stages, several image‐processing techniques were used with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data in January, 2000, a one‐time snapshot useful in historic lake level reconstruction. In this research, image processing techniques, for example, averaging, Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), Lee‐Sigma filtering were applied and masking with Canny Edge Detector (CED) and semi‐automated contouring were developed for lake stage estimation. In terms of simplicity, averaging might be useful if 1·5 m of the local bias for the study area in stage estimates. However, the FFT and Lee‐Sigma methods were slightly better than averaging. Masking with CED and semi‐automated contouring provided outstanding accuracy in the estimation. The masking and contouring methods provided ± 0·5 m of stage differences for relatively large lakes greater than 10 km2 when compared with stage reading in spite of their calculation complexities and was shown as the best approaches among implemented methods in this study. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Despite significant research advances achieved during the last decades, seemingly inconsistent forecasting results related to stochastic, chaotic, and black-box approaches have been reported. Herein, we attempt to address the entropy/complexity resulting from hydrological and climatological conditions. Accordingly, mutual information function, correlation dimension, averaged false nearest neighbor with E1 and E2 quantities, and complexity analysis that uses sample entropy coupled with iterative amplitude adjusted Fourier transform were employed as nonlinear deterministic identification tools. We investigated forecasting of daily streamflow for three climatologically different Swedish rivers, Helge, Ljusnan, and Kalix Rivers using self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR), k-nearest neighbor (k-nn), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The results suggest that the streamflow in these rivers during the 1957–2012 period exhibited dynamics from low to high complexity. Specifically, (1) lower complexity lead to higher predictability at all lead-times and the models’ worst performances were obtained for the most complex streamflow (Ljusnan River), (2) ANN was the best model for 1-day ahead forecasting independent of complexity, (3) SETAR was the best model for 7-day ahead forecasting by means of performance indices, especially for less complexity, (4) the largest error propagation was obtained with the k-nn and ANN and thus these models should be carefully used beyond 2-day forecasting, and (5) higher number input variables except for the dominant variables made insignificant impact on forecasting performances for ANN and k-nn models.  相似文献   

7.
巴丹吉林沙漠气候干旱,蒸发强烈,与之形成鲜明对比的是沙漠腹地湖泊群的长久不衰,目前对于湖泊水分的补给来源仍存在争议.本文以水量均衡为基础,在苏木吉林湖区开展了降水、蒸发及湖水位和地下水位的动态监测,结合已有的水文地质资料建立地下水流动三维模型,重现湖区地下水位的季节动态变化,并基于模型进行水均衡分析.结果表明:苏木吉林湖区降水入渗补给量不足以平衡湖泊蒸发量,湖泊需要深层承压水的越流补给;湖水位和地下水位均呈现正弦曲线形态,11月最低,4月达到峰值,水位变幅分别为22和18 cm;湖区地下水多年平均总补给量为11620 m3/d,其中降水和承压水越流分别约占13%和87%,降水补给量夏季高、冬季低,承压水越流补给量季节变化不明显;承压水越流补给量可能主要来源于沙漠周边山区降水,未发现明显的水量亏空需要断裂导水来弥补.研究结果为巴丹吉林沙漠地下水资源分析及合理利用提供科学依据.  相似文献   

8.
湖泊水情遥感研究进展   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
宋春桥  詹鹏飞  马荣华 《湖泊科学》2020,32(5):1406-1420
湖泊作为最直接的淡水资源之一,在人类的生产、生活各方面都占据至关重要的地位.受到全球气候变化与人类活动的影响,湖泊正在发生急剧变化,因而有必要对其进行快速、准确的时空变化监测,从而为水资源管理与保护、未来气候变化预警提供依据.遥感技术的产生与发展为大范围、实时动态的湖泊变化监测提供了难得的契机,它克服了人类对湖泊实地考察的局限性.本文对现有国内外湖泊水情遥感监测技术与方法进行了综合梳理,主要综述了国内外在湖泊水域范围提取、湖泊水位提取、湖泊水量估算、流域水文过程等方面的遥感研究进展情况,重点总结了该领域近年来提出的新方法和新技术.最后,结合当前遥感技术的发展,对未来遥感在湖泊动态变化监测中的应用潜力和趋势进行了简要论述,并对多源遥感数据融合与云计算平台的结合在地表水体连续变化监测中的应用进行了展望.  相似文献   

9.
适宜生态水位作为反应湖泊水文情势的重要指标,是维持湖泊生态系统稳定的关键要素。已有研究大多集中于水文过程对生态系统影响,缺乏耦合考虑湖泊营养负荷的全季节生态水位阈值研究。本研究在刻画恢复天然水位情势的基础上,综合考虑了人类活动导致湖泊营养负荷的季节性波动以及冰封期的最小生态水位,构建了适用于季节性冰封湖泊全季节的适宜生态水位阈值获取的综合框架,确定了年内不同时期适宜生态水位阈值。结果表明,查干湖入湖口非冰封期的总氮(TN)浓度与平均水位均呈上升趋势,总磷(TP)浓度呈下降趋势;6月湖内TN和TP滞留量最高,分别达到1044.36和23.61 t;确定了查干湖全季节不同时期的适宜生态水位,冰封期(11月—次年4月)为129m,汛期(6—9月)为130.15~130.86 m,非汛期(5和10月)为130.08~130.57 m。研究结果可为季节性冰封湖泊的适宜生态水位研究提供方法支撑,也可为湖泊的水环境管理提供理论支撑。  相似文献   

10.
湖泊生态水位计算新方法与应用   总被引:6,自引:4,他引:2  
淦峰  唐琳  郭怀成  高伟 《湖泊科学》2015,27(5):783-790
水位是湖泊水文情势的主要特征指标,对湖泊的水量、水质和生物的栖息地等有直接或间接的影响,被认为是湖泊生态系统健康的关键影响因素.如何确定合理的湖泊水位以保证生态系统健康成为湖泊科学研究的重要科学问题.根据湖泊天然水位情势,从天然水文变化中识别多项反映完整水位过程的指标,构建了湖泊生态水位的计算方法.从湖泊天然水位情势中提取出高、低水位的历时、发生时间和变化率等水位指数来表征其生态水位.该方法弥补了传统湖泊生态水位计算方法仅给出最小生态水位的不足,体现了湖泊生态系统健康对水位过程的要求.基于提出的生态水位计算方法和鄱阳湖都昌水位站1952-2000年共49年的日均监测数据,计算了鄱阳湖的生态水位目标值区间,以期为鄱阳湖水利工程生态调度提供决策依据.  相似文献   

11.
The effects of a single lake on downstream water chemistry may be compounded by the presence of additional lakes within the watershed, augmenting or negating the effects of the first lake. Multiple, linked lakes are a common feature of many watersheds and these resemble reactors in series often studied in engineering. The effects of multiple lakes in series on nutrient transport are largely unexplored. We populated and calibrated a simple lake model to investigate the role of a sub-alpine lake (Bull Trout Lake (BTL), Rocky Mountains, USA) on the transport of the macronutrients during the summer of 2008. Further, we developed a sequential model in which four identical lakes (copies of the BTL model) were connected in series. All lakes in the sequence retarded the flux of nutrients, thus slowing their transport downstream. The first lake in the sequence dramatically altered stream water chemistry and served as a sink for C and P and a source of N, while additional lakes downstream became sources of C, N and P. Although additional downstream lakes resulted in important changes to water chemistry and nutrient transport, the nature of the changes were similar from Lakes 2 to 4 and the magnitude of the changes diminished with distance downstream. Our lake model served as an effective tool for assessing the nutrient budget of the lake and the hypothetical effect of multiple lakes in sequence in a landscape limnology framework.  相似文献   

12.
Hydrologic regime plays an important role in maintaining aquatic ecosystem structures and biogeochemical processes of endorheic salt lakes. Due to joint influences of regional climate change, runoff regulation and water withdrawal, ecological water deficiency has been increasingly prominent in endorheic salt lakes in Northwest China, especially in the Inner Mongolian Plateau. Previous studies mainly focused on establishing and applying methods to determine ecological water levels of lakes, while much less attention was paid to a more important problem – how such water levels could be reached under changed watershed hydrological processes. Solutions of this gap were explored in this study using the Dalinuoer Lake as an example. This lake is a typical endorheic salt lake located in the Inner Mongolian Plateau. It is a critical source to provide important ecological services and economic values for locals. Its ecological water level to maintain the optimum salinity threshold was first calculated by applying a statistical analysis of relationships between the phytoplankton biomass, salinity and water level of the lake. Potential measures to preserve the ecological water level of the lake were subsequently evaluated based on a hydrological process analysis of the watershed. The results indicated that the optimum salinity threshold was 5.7 g/L. This value should be also valid for other endorheic salt lakes in this region. According to a function between the water storage and the mean water depth of this lake, the ecological water level was determined to be 10.28 m with an ecological water deficit of 2.5 × 108 m3. A basin water balance analysis using the results proposed measures to maintain a sustainable ecological water level, including controlling local water consumption and infusing ecological water. The results of this study could be extrapolated to other similar conditions to provide guidance for policy-makers, so that better decisions could be hopefully forged to protect eco-hydrological processes of endorheic salt lakes in the Mongolian Plateau, as well as other comparable scenarios.  相似文献   

13.
水是人类生存之源,而湖荡被称为地球之“肾”,是河湖水系连接的关键缓冲节点,与人类生存和发展息息相关。长三角平原水系众多,河流纵横,天然湖泊与人工沟渠遍布,平原湖荡湖水与周边地下水的水力联系较为频繁,而地下水对湖泊水均衡贡献尚不明确,对平原湖荡地下水赋存和运移规律的认识不足。本研究以苏州吴江区元荡湖为研究对象,选取氡同位素作为湖水和地下水水力交换过程的示踪剂,建立氡箱模型,揭示元荡湖不同区段与地下水的水力联系过程和补给关系,并通过水位动态验证分析湖水—地下水交互关系。枯水期元荡湖水位和氡浓度空间分布特征指示研究区内地下水向湖水排泄,其中以湖泊西侧较为明显,地下水入流补给的氡为7.137×106 Bq/d,输入量源项占比为90%,地下水流入量为4540.801 m3/d,地下水每日流入量对元荡湖水量的贡献率为2.551%。参数敏感性分析结果表明,风速与地下水222Rn活度为特别敏感参数,取值差异较大时会导致计算误差急剧增大,改善测点布置和提高模型参数精度能有效提高模型计算结果的准确性和可靠程度。借助氡同位素示踪方法,建立湖泊...  相似文献   

14.
Both the inflow and outflow of supra‐permafrost water to lakes play important roles in the hydrologic process of thermokarst lakes. The accompanying thermal effects on the adjacent permafrost are required for assessing their influences on the development of thermokarst lakes. For these purposes, the lake water level, temperature dynamics, and supra‐permafrost water flow of a lake were monitored on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. In addition, the spatial and temporal variation of the active layer thickness and permafrost distribution around the lake were investigated by combining ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography, and borehole temperature monitoring. The results revealed that the yearly unfrozen supra‐permafrost water flow around the lake lasted approximately 5 months. The temperature and water level measurements during this period indicate that the lake water was recharged by relatively colder supra‐permafrost water from the north‐western lakeshore and was discharged through the eastern lakeshore. This process, accompanied by heat exchange with the underlying permafrost, might cause a directional difference of the active layer thickness and permafrost characteristics around the lake. Specifically, the active layer thickness variation was minimal, and the ice‐rich permafrost was found adjacent to the lakeshore along the recharge groundwater pathways, whereas a deeper active layer and ice‐poor permafrost were observed close to the lakeshore from which the warm lake water was discharged. This study suggests that the lateral flow of warm lake water can be a major driver for the rapid expansion of thermokarst lakes and provides clues for evaluating the relationships between the thermokarst expansion process and climate warming.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract

Abstract This work applies a fuzzy decision method to compare the performance of the grey model with that of the phase-space model, in forecasting rainfall one to three hours ahead. Four indices and two statistical tests are used to evaluate objectively the performance of the forecasting models. However, a trade-off must be made in choosing a suitable model because various indices may lead to different judgements. Therefore, a fuzzy decision model was applied to solve this problem and to make the optimum decision. The results of fuzzy decision making demonstrate that the grey model outperforms the phase-space model for forecasting one hour ahead, but the phase-space model performs better for forecasting two or three hours ahead.  相似文献   

16.
 Volcanic lakes have a wide range of characteristics, and we make an attempt to delineate the limiting physical conditions for several lake classes. The ratio between heat input and heat dissipation capacity of a lake constrains the temperature for perfectly mixed steady-state volcanic lakes. Poorly mixed lakes are also conditioned by this ratio, but their temperature structure is also strongly influenced by the hydrodynamics resulting from different mechanisms of heat transfer. The steady-state temperatures of volcanic lakes are largely determined by the magnitude of the volcanic heat influx relative to the surface area of the lake. Small lakes have only a small capacity for heat dissipation and their temperature rises quickly with only small heat inputs; large lakes are buffered against variations in heat input. Both the heat dissipation and meteoric water input into a lake are functions of lake surface area and therefore each lake water temperature demands a certain precipitation rate for mass conservation, independent of lake size. The results of energy/mass-balance modeling shows that under common atmospheric conditions, most steady-state volcanic lakes are unlikely to maintain a temperature in excess of 45–50  °C. Validation of the volcanic lake model was performed using published data from Yugama Lake (Japan) and the Keli Mutu lakes (Indonesia). Also, the model was applied to 24 natural systems to provide a baseline assessment of energy fluxes under the model assumptions so future work on those systems can identify nuances in individual systems that deviate from the simple model conditions. We recommend the model for use in assessing temperature variations and volcanic lake stability in settings with known physical and atmospheric conditions. Application of the energy/mass balance calculations of model lakes provides a genetic classification scheme largely based on physical process parameters. Received: 28 February 1996 / Accepted: 23 November 1996  相似文献   

17.
城市湖泊作为城市与自然之间进行水气交换的蓝色空间,具有供水、防洪、休闲、气候调节以及改善城市生态环境等诸多生态服务功能。中国地域辽阔、城市众多,不同区域的城市湖泊受自然地理环境和社会经济发展等因素的影响而具有显著的空间差异特征。目前已有研究对我国省会城市和个别大型城市的湖泊空间分布及变化特征等开展研究,但全国范围内各行政等级单元内城市湖泊分布的空间格局及其影响因素仍缺乏综合分析。本研究基于中国城市湖泊数据集,从城市分布的地域单元、行政等级、城市规模3个方面对城市湖泊分布特征进行统计分析和比较,并结合自然和人类活动要素,初步探讨影响城市湖泊分布规模和丰度的主控因子。结果表明,2020年全国共有约11万个面积大于0.001km2城市湖泊(不包括太湖、滇池等大型湖泊),总面积约2112 km2,约占全国城市(遥感城市不透水层区域)面积的1.1%。城市湖泊的分布具有显著的集聚和分异特征,数量超过70%的城市湖泊分布在约20%的县(区)级行政单元,约21%的县(区)级行政单元基本没有(<10 m遥感影像分辨率下10个像元)城市湖泊分布。城市湖泊数...  相似文献   

18.
High‐altitude inland lakes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) are key indicators to climate change and variability as a result of mostly closed watersheds and minimal disturbance by human activities. However, examination of the spatial and temporal pattern of lake changes, especially for water‐level variations, is usually limited by poor accessibility of most lakes. Recently, satellite altimeters have demonstrated their potential to monitor water level changes of terrestrial water bodies including lakes and rivers. By combining multiple satellite altimetry data provided by the Laboratoire d'Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS) and Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument on the NASA Ice, Cloud and land Elevation satellite (ICESat), this study examined water level changes of typical lakes in HMA at a longer timescale (in the 1990s and 2000s) compared with earlier studies on Tibetan lakes. Cross‐evaluation of the radar altimetry data from LEGOS and laser altimetry data from ICESat/GLAS shows that they were in good agreement in depicting inter‐annual, seasonal and abrupt changes of lake level. The long‐term altimetry measurements reveal that water‐level changes of the 18 lakes showed remarkable spatial and temporal patterns that were characterized by different trends, onsets of rapid rises and magnitudes of inter‐annual variations for different lakes. During the study period, lakes in the central and northern HMA (15 lakes) showed a general growth tendency, while lakes in South Tibet (three lakes) showed significant shrinking tendency. Lakes in Central Tibet experienced rapid and stable water‐level rises around mid‐1990s followed by slowing growth rates after 2006. In contrast, the water‐level rises of lakes in the northern and north‐eastern Tibetan Plateau were characterized by abrupt increases in specific years rather than gradual growth. Meteorological data based on station observations indicate that the annual changes of water level showed strongly correlated with precipitation and evaporation but may not evidently related to the glacier melting induced by global warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
福建闽江水口库区飘浮植物覆盖对水体环境的影响   总被引:18,自引:0,他引:18  
蔡雷鸣 《湖泊科学》2006,18(3):250-254
为了探索城市富营养化湖泊生态修复技术,2000年9月在南京市莫愁湖物理生态工程试验区内,开展了隔离外源污染、覆盖底泥和种植水生植物对湖泊水质平均水平和水体脉动强度影响的比较研究.试验结果表明,通过围隔隔离外源污染可在较短时间内迅速改善湖泊TN的平均水平,但难以提高湖泊生态系统的稳定性;通过覆盖底泥控制内源污染难以改善湖泊水质的平均水平,并且难以提高湖泊生态系统的稳定程度;种植水生植物不仅能够全面改善湖泊水质的平均水平,而且可以提高湖泊生态系统的稳定性.此外,富营养化湖泊中,藻类生长与湖水营养盐浓度并不存在正相关的关系.因此,对城市湖泊富营养化的防治,在控制外源污染降低营养盐浓度的同时,应恢复湖泊原有的以水生高等植物为主的生态系统.  相似文献   

20.
郑丙辉  曹晶  王坤  储昭升  姜霞 《湖泊科学》2022,34(3):699-710
目前,我国湖泊富营养化及蓝藻水华问题十分突出,国家高度重视湖泊的生态环境保护.自“九五”以来,国家就投入太湖、巢湖、滇池“老三湖”等重污染湖泊的治理,但成本巨大,且历经近30年才初见成效.按照湖泊污染程度,湖泊治理与保护可分为“污染治理型”“防治结合型”“生态保育型”3大类.“老三湖”的治理是典型的“先污染、后治理”的模式,水质较好湖泊主要属于生态保育型湖泊,因此,“老三湖”治理模式不适用于水质较好湖泊的保护.本文系统总结了我国水质较好湖泊优先保护理念的形成和水质较好湖泊专项实施的历程.根据水质较好湖泊的特点,及其生态系统退化与修复的一般过程,提出了水质较好湖泊保护的基本思路.从热力学角度,阐明了氮磷营养盐输入湖泊生态系统中是熵增过程,也是湖泊生态系统退化的根本原因,湖泊氮磷污染负荷源头控制是关键.湖泊流域生态安全格局是确保湖泊生态系统健康的基础,从景观生态学角度,阐明了优化湖泊流域水土资源利用、优化发展模式是减轻湖泊环境压力的重要途径.在浅水湖泊生态系统,以沉水植物占优势的“清水态”和以浮游植物占优势的“浊水态”转换过程不是沿着同一条途径,存在上临界阈值和下临界阈值,水生态修复过程表现出一种迟滞的现象.从湖泊水生态系统稳态转换理论角度,阐明了湖泊生态修复工程应在湖泊生态系统发生退化转变之前实施,才能获得较高的环境效益.通过国家财政专项对81个水质较好湖泊的支持,既能促进湖泊流域经济社会发展,又能确保湖泊水环境质量变好,湖泊水生态系统逐步改善.建议加强不同类型湖泊保护模式的总结,深入对水质较好湖泊生态系统演替理论和保护技术研究,支撑国家系统开展水质较好湖泊保护.  相似文献   

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