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1.
Land-use planners have a critical role to play in building vibrant, sustainable and hazard resilient communities in New Zealand. The policy and legal setting for natural hazards planning provides a solid foundation for good practice. But there are many examples of ‘bad practice’ that result in unnecessary risks and, in some cases, exposure to repeat events and potentially devastating impacts. Much, therefore, remains to be done to improve hazards planning policy and practice in New Zealand. This article explores the questions: What role does land-use planning play in managing hazard risks in New Zealand; and what needs to be done to reduce hazard risks and build community resilience? The article starts by describing the milieu within which natural hazards planning takes place. It goes onto outline the stakeholders and institutional and legal setting for natural hazards planning in New Zealand, including barriers to realising the potential of natural hazards planning. This synthesis reveals a number of ‘burning issues’, including the need to: (a) Improve understanding about the nature of hazards; (b) Prioritise risk avoidance (reduction) measures; (c) Provide national guidance for communities exposed to repeat events and address the relocation issue and (d) Mainstream climate change adaptation. Each ‘burning issue’ is discussed, and priority actions are recommended to realise the potential of land-use planning to reduce natural hazard risks and build community resilience in New Zealand. Ultimately, the challenge is to develop a cooperative hazards governance approach that is founded on coordinated policies, laws and institutions, cooperative professional practice and collaborative communities.  相似文献   

2.
Mountain regions are subject to a variety of hazardous processes. Earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, floods, debris flows, epidemics and fires, among other processes, have caused injury, death, damage and destruction. They also face challenges from increased populations, and expansion and intensification of␣activities, land uses and infrastructure. The combination of a dynamic bio- geophysical environment and intensified human use has increased the vulnerability of mountain social–ecological systems to risk from hazards. The ability of social–ecological systems to build resilience in the context of hazards is an important factor in their long-term sustainability. The role of resilience building in understanding the impact of hazards in mountain areas is examined and illustrated, in part, through examples from Canada and India. Resilient social–ecological systems have the ability to learn and adjust, use all forms of knowledge, to self-organize and to develop positive institutional linkages with other social–ecological systems in the face of hazards. The analysis suggests that traditional social–ecological systems built resilience through avoidance, which was effective for localized hazards. The more recent development and implementation of cross-scale institutional linkages is shown to be a particularly effective means of resilience building in mountain social–ecological systems in the face of all hazards.  相似文献   

3.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First, it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction potential, building damage and casualty.  相似文献   

4.
Organizational scholars increasingly use the term “resilience” to analyze options of dealing with uncertain context conditions. What do these scholars have to offer to researchers in the field of natural hazards? This research note makes three suggestions. First, the research note frames social resilience—in contrast to a rigid response to radical change—as a process of broadening information-based activities, loosening formal controls, and using slack resources of organizational members. Second, the research note argues to leave the meaning of social resilience undefined at the outset of a research project with the aim of building theory about resilience. It is expected that a useful definition emerges in empirical research. Third, organizational studies highlight specific social structures and processes of social resilience, for instance, small groups of individuals in organizational and interorganizational contexts. Organizing becomes a crucial factor for dealing with natural hazards.  相似文献   

5.
Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework   总被引：9，自引：7，他引：2  
The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.  相似文献   

6.
Over the last 50?years, the cost of natural disasters has increased globally and in Indonesia (EM-DAT 2012). We therefore need more systematic efforts in trying to reduce disaster risks. In 2005, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005?C2015: ??Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities??, in order to enable a more systematic planning, implementation and evaluation of disaster risk reduction (DRR) activities. In this paper, we examine Indonesia??s success in improving DRR by reviewing the country??s progress in implementing the HFA Priorities for Actions. This includes an analysis of the drivers, challenges and emerging issues in building resilience to natural hazards. The study is undertaken through literature reviews and interviews with 26 representatives of key organisations in DRR and climate change adaptation (CCA) in Indonesia. Our findings indicate that the building disaster resilience in Indonesia has been, to a large extent, driven by the existence of the necessary regulatory policies and frameworks and the participation of various non-government stakeholders. Impediments to process include a lack of capacity and capability for DRR at the local government level, a lack of systematic learning and a lack of commitment from government to mainstream DRR into broader development agendas. Emerging pressing issues that are likely to challenge future resilience building activities include the integration of DRR and CCA and urban risk governance.  相似文献   

7.
Nature-triggered hazards and disasters have traditionally been treated only from the lens of geophysical and biophysical processes, implying that the root cause of large-scale death and destruction lies in the natural domain rather than in a coupled human–environment system. Conceptually, the physical domain has been seen as discrete and separate from human entities, and solutions were sought in the technological intervention and control of the physical environment—solutions that often ended up being less effective than hoped for and sometimes even counter productive. At all levels, institutions have directed and redirected most of their financial and logistical resources into the search for scientific and engineering solutions without allocating due attention and resources towards the assessment of effects and effectiveness of the applications of such technological outcomes. However, over the last two decades, forceful criticisms of the ‘dominant’ technocratic approach to hazards analysis have appeared in the literature and consequently there has not only been a shift in thinking of causation of disaster loss in terms of human vulnerability, but also newer questions have arisen regarding distinguishing between the ‘physical exposure’ of people to threats and societal vulnerability, and linking them with propensity to hazards loss. Though the vulnerability/resilience paradigm has largely replaced the hazards paradigm within the social sciences and much of the professional emergency and disaster management communities, this shift of thinking has not progressed to much of the physical science community, decision-makers and the public, who have not yet accepted the idea that understanding and using human and societal dimensions is equally or more important than trying to deal and control nature through the use of technology. This special issue is intended to further the idea that the aspects of community and peoples’ power to mitigate, to improve coping mechanisms, to respond effectively, and recover with vigor against the environmental extremes are of paramount conceptual and policy importance.  相似文献   

8.
The discussion on the social-ecological dimensions of hazards is constantly evolving. This paper explores the trajectory of research relating to hazards and their impact on vulnerable human populations. Interpretations of disaster risk have included estimating losses in terms of human life and property, and analyzing the social mechanisms in place that exacerbate or mitigate a population’s sensitivity to hazard events. In keeping with recent trends in research relating to disaster risk, the paper focuses on the social dimension of vulnerability and the contribution of social structures and relationships in building community resilience. Institutional frameworks and policies in particular determine the quantity and quality of resources and services available to people that contribute to resilience over time. The hazard-risk-location-model (HRLM) is proposed that is based on re-specifying disaster risk in terms of exposure and coping ability to capture the focus on social vulnerability and resilience. The framework of the HRLM incorporates the following components: (1) linkages within existing social capital; (2) spatial variation in social and institutional frameworks; (3) positive and negative feedbacks; and (4) characteristics of the hazard event. The model contributes to the range of place-based assessments designed to address the human-environmental impacts of hazards and disasters.  相似文献   

9.
The article decodes and analyzes the standard functions of social and social-ecological systems when they manage their own vulnerability. The author acknowledges these as “Resilience functions” or “Operational Resilience”. For this purpose, she follows a “Vulnerability Actor” (V Actor)-based approach. V Actor is considered as a system faced with multiple hazards, carrying various vulnerability facets (physical, economic, institutional, etc.) and attempting to transform, transfer, rearrange them in time and space so as to achieve Actor’s own persistence. It is these processes of vulnerability re-arrangement that are identified by the author as Resilience functions and which change the vulnerability not only of the V Actor performing resilience but also others’. Performance of Resilience functions presupposes attraction and employment of resources by the Actor, not only own, current and inherent but also other resources to be found in spatial and temporal scales external to or beyond the Actor but which the Actor can appeal to. This attraction most probably leads to deprivation of others of the necessary resources for their persistence, recovery, etc. When somebody’ vulnerability is reduced sometimes somewhere, it is most probable that others elsewhere are encumbered with extra vulnerability, currently or in the future. Hence, what resilience can only do is vulnerability re-arrangement, re-setting and management. The proposed systemic approach is documented on current state of art regarding interactions between vulnerability and resilience to hazards and on empirical evidence from the international experience of responses to natural hazards.  相似文献   

10.
With the recent transition to a more risk-based approach in flood management, flood risk models—being a key component in flood risk management—are becoming increasingly important. Such models combine information from four components: (1) the flood hazard (mostly inundation depth), (2) the exposure (e.g. land use), (3) the value of elements at risk and (4) the susceptibility of the elements at risk to hydrologic conditions (e.g. depth–damage curves). All these components contain, however, a certain degree of uncertainty which propagates through the calculation and accumulates in the final damage estimate. In this study, an effort has been made to assess the influence of uncertainty in these four components on the final damage estimate. Different land-use data sets and damage models have been used to represent the uncertainties in the exposure, value and susceptibility components. For the flood hazard component, inundation depth has been varied systematically to estimate the sensitivity of flood damage estimations to this component. The results indicate that, assuming the uncertainty in inundation depth is about 25 cm (about 15% of the mean inundation depth), the total uncertainty surrounding the final damage estimate in the case study area can amount to a factor 5–6. The value of elements at risk and depth–damage curves are the most important sources of uncertainty in flood damage estimates and can both introduce about a factor 2 of uncertainty in the final damage estimates. Very large uncertainties in inundation depth would be necessary to have a similar effect on the uncertainty of the final damage estimate, which seem highly unrealistic. Hence, in order to reduce the uncertainties surrounding potential flood damage estimates, these components deserve prioritisation in future flood damage research. While absolute estimates of flood damage exhibit considerable uncertainty (the above-mentioned factor 5–6), estimates for proportional changes in flood damages (defined as the change in flood damages as a percentage of a base situation) are much more robust.  相似文献   

11.

This paper presents a methodology to deaggregate the results of a multi-hazard damage analysis by extending the traditional multi-hazard damage analysis to consider both population characteristics and independent hazards. The methodology is applied to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon, considering four infrastructure systems: (1) buildings, (2) transportation network, (3) electric power network and (4) water supply network. Damages to all infrastructure systems are evaluated, and the networked infrastructures are used to inform parcel connectivity to critical facilities. US Census data and a probabilistic housing unit allocation method are implemented to assign detailed household demographic characteristics at the parcel level. Six dimensions of deaggregation are introduced: (1) spatial, (2) hazard type, (3) hazard intensity, (4) infrastructure system, (5) infrastructure component, and (6) housing unit characteristics. The damages, economic losses and risks, and connectivity to critical facilities are deaggregated across these six dimensions. The results show that deaggregated economic loss and risk plots can allow community resilience planners the ability to isolate high-risk events, as well as provide insights into the underlying driving forces. Geospatial representation of the results allows for the identification of both vulnerable buildings and areas within a community and is highlighted by the spatial pattern of parcel disconnection from critical facilities. The incorporation of population characteristics provides an understanding of how hazards disproportionately impact population subgroups and can aide in equitable resilience planning.

  相似文献   

12.
Despite a recent increase in the number of vulnerability analyses there has been relatively little discussion of vulnerability assessment of social–environment system, especially when they face multiple hazards. In this study, we developed an applicable and convenient method to assess vulnerability of social–environment system at a regional scale. Vulnerability is quantified by measuring three critical elements (i.e. hazards, sensitivity, and resilience) through some key variables. The results showed that vulnerability is high in Miaofeng Mountain in Mengtougou District, the hills of Pinggu County and the riparian zones of the lower courses of the Beiyun and Yongding Rivers; but low in the city of Beijing and the southwestern part of the Fangshan District. Areas of very high, high, medium, and low-vulnerability account for 6.19, 25.48, 33.06, and 35.27% of the total area, respectively. The degree of vulnerability decreases in a northwest direction in mountainous areas and declines from watercourses to riparian zones along a lateral direction in the plain. Some adaptive strategies are also proposed.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper a methodology for a multi-risk assessment of an urban area is introduced and performed for the city of Cologne, Germany, considering the natural hazards windstorm, flooding and earthquake. Moreover, sources of the uncertainty in the analysis and future needs for research are identified. For each peril the following analyses were undertaken: hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and estimation of losses. To compare the three hazard types on a consistent basis, a common economic assessment of exposed assets was developed. This was used to calculate direct economic losses to buildings and their contents. The perils were compared by risk curves showing the exceedence probability of the estimated losses. In Cologne, most of the losses that occur frequently are due to floods and windstorms. For lower return periods (10–200 years) the risk is dominated by floods. For return periods of more than 200 years the highest damage is caused by earthquakes.  相似文献   

14.
The Andaman–Nicobar (A–N) Islands region has attracted many geo-scientists because of its unique location and complex geotectonic settings. The recent occurrence of tsunamis due to the megathrust tsunamigenic north Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) with a series of aftershocks in the A–N region caused severe damage to the coastal regions of India and Indonesia. Several pieces of evidence suggest that the occurrence of earthquakes in the A–N region is related to its complex geodynamical processes. In this study, it has been inferred that deep-seated structural heterogeneities related to dehydration of the subducting Indian plate beneath the Island could have induced the process of brittle failure through crustal weakening to contribute immensely to the coastal hazard in the region. The present study based on 3-D P-wave tomography of the entire rupture zone of the A–N region using the aftershocks of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.3) clearly demonstrates the role of crustal heterogeneity in seismogenesis and in causing the strong shakings and tsunamis. The nature and extent of the imaged crustal heterogeneity beneath the A–N region may have facilitated the degree of damage and extent of coastal hazards in the region. The 3-D velocity heterogeneities reflect asperities that manifest what type of seismogenic layers exist beneath the region to dictate the size of earthquakes and thereby they help to assess the extent of earthquake vulnerability in the coastal regions. The inference of this study may be used as one of the potential inputs for assessment of seismic vulnerability to the region, which may be considered for evolving earthquake hazard mitigation model for the coastal areas of the Andaman–Nicobar Islands region.  相似文献   

15.
The Kali-Hindon is a watershed in the most productive central Ganga plain of India. The whole area is a fertile track with sugarcane being the principal crop. Systematic sampling was carried out to assess the source of dissolved ions, impact of sugar factories and the quality of groundwater. Thirty-six samples were collected covering an area of 395 km2. The quality of groundwater is suitable for irrigational purposes but is rich in SO4 which is not best for human consumption. Graphical treatment of major ion chemistry helps identify six chemical types of groundwater. All possible species such as Na–Cl, K–Cl, Na–HCO3, Na–SO4, Ca–HCO3, Mg–HCO3, Ca–SO4 and Mg–SO4 are likely to occur in the groundwater system. The most conspicuous change in chemistry of groundwater is relative enrichment of SO4. The interpretation of data reveals that SO4 has not been acquired through water–rock interaction. The source of SO4 is anthropogenic. Sugar factories alone are responsible for this potential environmental hazard.  相似文献   

16.
This paper advocates the use of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory as a framework to analyse resilience at diverse scales. Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory can be employed to (a) benchmark social resilience, (b) target the priority interventions required and (c) measure progress arising from these interventions to enhance resilience to natural disasters. First, the paper explores resilience to natural disasters in the context of climatic change as building resilience is seen as a way to mitigate impacts of natural disasters. Second, concepts of resilience are systematically examined and documented, outlining resilience as a trait and resilience as a process. Third, issues arising in relation to the measurement of resilience are discussed. Fourth, Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory is described and proffered to model and assess resilience at different scales. Fifth, studies are described which have supported the use of the bioecological systems theory for the study of resilience. Sixth, an example of the use of Bronfenbrenner’s theory is offered and the paper concludes with suggestions for future research using Bronfenbrenner’s theory.  相似文献   

17.
About 127 debris flow gullies have been identified, and debris flows have been an important type of geological hazards in Luding County, affecting cities, towns, rural areas, scenic spots and human’s engineering projects, such as mining and waterpower utilizing equipments. In this summary paper, recent two catastrophic debris flow events occurred on June 30, 2005, in Chuni town, in the central of the county, and on August 11, 2005, in Hailuogou scenic spot, in the southwest of the county, respectively, are reviewed. The debris flow events are introduced on the basis of field investigation and RS interpretation and the triggering factors for flow occurrence are identified. Furthermore, the rainfall related to flow occurrence including antecedent rainfall and intraday rainfall is analyzed, and a power-law function which can be used as a basic warning line is established based on both antecedent effective rainfall and intraday rainfall. Then dynamic parameters such as flow velocity and flow discharge are calculated, respectively. Through comparison and discussion, some conclusions are made including (1) The antecedent rainfall played an important role for debris flows which generated predominately based on the slope-instability due to the saturated loose sediments; (2) Despite slower flow velocity and smaller magnitude, the slope-type debris flows just like 2005-6-30 debris flows usually lead to serious damages for the difficulty to forecast and to prevent; (3) The mistaken recognition on debris flow hazards and lack of prevention consciousness strengthen the hazard and damage degree. This research is of certain significance for the prevention and mitigation of debris flow hazards and for the planning of the town building and tourism development in the future.  相似文献   

18.
In Canada, Montreal is the second city with the highest seismic risk. This is due to its relatively high seismic hazard, old infrastructures and high population density. The region is characterised by moderate seismic activity with no recent record of a major earthquake. The lack of historical strong ground motion records for the region contributes to large uncertainties in the estimation of hazards. Among the sources of uncertainty, the attenuation function is the main contributor and its effect on estimates of risks is investigated. Epistemic uncertainty was considered by obtaining damage estimates for three attenuation functions that were developed for Eastern North America. The results indicate that loss estimates are highly sensitive to the choice of the attenuation function and suggest that epistemic uncertainty should be considered both for the definition of the hazard function and in loss estimation methodologies. Seismic loss estimates are performed for a 2% in 50 years seismic threat, which corresponds to the design level earthquake in the national building code of Canada, using HAZUS-MH4 for the Montreal region over 522 census tracts. The study estimated that for the average scenario roughly 5% of the building stock would be damaged with direct economic losses evaluated at 1.4 billion dollars for such a scenario. The maximum number of casualties would result in approximately 500 people being injured or dead at a calculated time of occurrence of 2?pm.  相似文献   

19.
In this paper, we present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for mainland Spain that takes into account recent new results in seismicity, seismic zoning, and strong ground attenuation not considered in the latest PSHA of the Spanish Building Code. Those new input data have been obtained as a three-step project carried out in order to improve the existing hazard map for mainland Spain. We have produced a new earthquake catalogue for the area, in which the earthquakes are given in moment magnitude through specific deduced relationships for our territory based on intensity data (Mezcua et al. in Seismol Res Lett 75:75–81, 2004). In addition, we included a new seismogenetic zoning based on the recent partial zoning studies performed by different authors. Finally, as we have developed a new strong ground motion model for the area García Blanco (2009), it was considered in the hazard calculation together with other attenuations gathered from different authors using data compatible with our region. With this new data, a logic tree process is defined to quantify the epistemic uncertainty related to those parts of the process. A sensitivity test has been included in order to analyze the different models of ground motion and seismotectonic zonation used in this work. Finally, after applying a weighting scheme, a mean hazard map for PGA, based on rock type condition for 10% exceedance probability in 50 years, is presented, including 15th and 85th percentile hazard maps. The main differences with the present official building code hazard map are analyzed.  相似文献   

20.
This paper presents a neural network (NN) based model to assess the regional hazard degree of debris flows in Lake Qionghai Watershed, China. The NN model was used as an alternative for the more conventional linear model MFCAM (multi-factor composite assessment model) in order to effectively handle the nonlinearity and uncertainty inherent in the debris flow hazard analysis. The NN model was configured using a three layer structure with eight input nodes and one output node, and the number of nodes in the hidden layer was determined through an iterative process of varying the number of nodes in the hidden layer until an optimal performance was achieved. The eight variables used to represent the eight input nodes include density of debris flow gully, degree of weathering of rocks, active fault density, area percentage of slope land greater than 25° of the total land (APL25), frequency of flooding hazards, average covariance of monthly precipitation by 10 years (ACMP10), average days with rainfall >25 mm by 10 years (25D10Y), and percentage of cultivated land with slope land greater than 25° of the total cultivated land (PCL25). The output node represents the hazard-degree ranks (HDR). The model was trained with the 35 sets of data obtained from previous researches reported in literatures, and an explicit uncertainty analysis was undertaken to address the uncertainty in model training and prediction. Before the NN model is extrapolated to Lake Qionghai Watershed, a validation case, different from the above data, is conducted. In addition, the performances of the NN model and the MFCAM were compared. The NN model predicted that the HDRs of the five sub-watersheds in the Lake Qionghai Watershed were IV, IV, III, III, and IV–V, indicating that the study area covers normal hazard and severe hazard areas. Based on the NN model results, debris flow management and economic development strategies in the study are proposed for each sub-watershed.  相似文献   

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