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Fragility curves constitute the cornerstone in seismic risk evaluations and performance-based earthquake engineering. They describe the probability of a structure to experience a certain damage level for a given earthquake intensity measure, providing a relationship between seismic hazard and vulnerability. In this paper a numerical approach is applied to derive fragility curves for tunnel shafts built in clays, a component that is found in several critical infrastructure such as urban metro networks, airport facilities or water and waste water projects. The seismic response of a representative tunnel shaft is assessed using tridimensional finite difference non-linear analyses carried out with the program FLAC3D, under increasing levels of seismic intensity. A hysteretic model is used to simulate the soil non-linear behavior during the seismic event. The effect of soil conditions and ground motion characteristics on the soil-structure system response is accounted for in the analyses. The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces. The fragility curves are estimated in terms of peak ground acceleration at a rock or stiff soil outcrop, based on the evolution of damage with increasing earthquake intensity. The proposed fragility models allows the characterization of the seismic risk of a representative tunnel shaft typology and soil conditions considering the associated uncertainties, and partially fill the gap of data required in performing a risk analysis assessment of tunnels shafts. 相似文献
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How to improve the representation of hydrological processes in SWAT for a lowland catchment – temporal analysis of parameter sensitivity and model performance 
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下载免费PDF全文 Model diagnostic analyses help to improve the understanding of hydrological processes and their representation in hydrological models. A detailed temporal analysis detects periods of poor model performance and model components with potential for model improvements, which cannot be found by analysing the whole discharge time series. In this study, we aim to improve the understanding of hydrological processes by investigating the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity and of model performance for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model applied to the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. The temporal analysis shows that the parameter sensitivity varies temporally with high sensitivity for three groundwater parameters (groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient) and one evaporation parameter (soil evaporation compensation factor). Whereas the soil evaporation compensation factor dominates in baseflow and resaturation periods, groundwater time delay, baseflow recession constant and aquifer fraction coefficient are dominant in the peak and recession phases. The temporal analysis of model performance identifies three clusters with different model performances, which can be related to different phases of the hydrograph. The lowest performance, when comparing six performance measures, is detected for the baseflow cluster. A spatially distributed analysis for six hydrological stations within the Treene catchment shows similar results for all stations. The linkage of periods with poor model performance to the dominant model components in these phases and with the related hydrological processes shows that the groundwater module has the highest potential for improvement. This temporal diagnostic analysis enhances the understanding of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and of the dominant hydrological processes in the lowland catchment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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高精度频率衰减分析技术及其应用(英文) 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
本文从含流体孔隙介质中的地震波场的衰减理论出发,对常规的频率衰减分析技术中的"低频阴影"和"频率衰减梯度"分析方法进行了改进,提出了一种高精度的频率衰减分析技术。首先,通过引入三参数小波变换和时频聚焦准则,发展了一种基于自适应三参数小波变换的高精度时频分析方法,其不仅具有很高的时—频分辨率(有利于"低频阴影"分析),而且其频谱只有一个峰,旁瓣比较小(有利于"频率衰减梯度"分析)。其次,采用基于最小二乘法的Nelder-Mead非线性算法对频谱的衰减部分进行拟合计算,可以准确地计算衰减系数,提高了"频率衰减梯度"的计算精度。实际资料的计算结果表明,本文提出的综合"低频阴影"和"频率衰减梯度"方法的频率衰减分析技术能够有效地圈定碳酸盐岩鲕滩储层的发育区域,且两种方法具有很好的一致性,有效地提高了储层预测的可靠性,从而降低了勘探风险。 相似文献
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ABSTRACTAn adaptive multilevel correlation analysis, a kind of data-driven methodology, is proposed. The analysis is done by subdividing the time series into segments such that adjacent segments have significantly different mean values. It is shown that the proposed methodology can provide multilevel information about the correlation between two variables. An integrated coefficient with its significance testing is also proposed to summarize the correlation at each level. Using the adaptive multilevel correlation analysis methodology, the correlation between streamflow and water level is investigated for a case study, and the results indicate that real correlation might be far more complicated than the empirically constructed picture.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis ASSOCIATE EDITOR E. Volpi 相似文献
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对白银形变观测站2008年以来观测资料的运行、变化和噪声水平做初步分析,结果表明：DSQ 型水管倾斜仪观测资料连续、稳定、可靠具有明确的正常背景---夏高冬低,为今后地震前兆异常的判断打下基础;水管倾斜仪 EW 分量在2013年7月22日 MS 6．6地震前出现破年变变化,说明白银地震台水管倾斜仪具有一定的地震前兆异常监测能力。 相似文献
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Analysis of data characterizing the chemical composition of atmospheric precipitation was presented, with an emphasis on components responsible for neutralization of rain acidity. For this purpose, chemometric methods were applied. Based on a principal component analysis (PCA) a strong correlation between precipitation pH and potassium and ammonium ions in the heating period (October–March) and potassium and sodium ions in the non‐heating period (April–September) was observed. Additionally, a classification of eight variables, i.e., Na+, K+, Mg2+, Ca2+, , , Cl?, and according to their similarities was made using a cluster analysis. Based on this study, two ions, potassium and ammonium, together with the pH value were classified into one group (cluster) in the heating period while in the non‐heating period ions of potassium and sodium were clustered together with the pH. The results of the cluster analysis indicated that the selected ions contributed the most to the neutralization of the atmospheric precipitation acidity. This relationship was confirmed by a discriminant analysis in which potassium and ammonium ions were selected as components of the highest potential for precipitation classification according to its acidity degree. The relationship between the precipitation pH and the number of non‐precipitation days preceding the precipitation was also analyzed. It was found that although the observed an increase of the pH value was not very high, nevertheless, the effect of the duration of the period preceding the precipitation on the pH value recorded on the day of the precipitation occurrence was quite evident. 相似文献
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概述四川7.0级以上大震前观测场地的异常情况。在核实2个大震震前异常的基础上,将传统异常判别方法进行汇总。总结近年来针对跨断层监测数据进行分析进而识别异常的方法:原始数据反映的断层活动速率异常以及转折异常。在此基础上,引入小波分析的方法对大震前的异常进行判别。对小波分解得到的两个趋势项进行分析,发现了大震与小波分解项异常的对应性。最后,基于对原始数据和小波分解项的分析,提出利用跨断层数据分析大震前兆的参考意见,为以后的震前异常研究工作提供了基础。 相似文献
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Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared. 相似文献
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Spectral analysis of climate data 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The complexity of climate variability on all time scales requires the use of several refined tools to unravel its primary dynamics from observations. Indeed, ideas from the theory of dynamical systems have provided new ways of interpreting the information contained in climatic time series.We review the properties of several modern time series analysis methods. Those methods belong to four main classes: Fourier techniques (Blackman-Tukey and Multi-Taper), Maximum Entropy technique, Singular-spectrum techniques and wavelet analysis. Their respective advantages and limitations are illustrated by numerical experiments on synthetic time series. As climate data can be irregularly spaced in time, we also compare three interpolating methods on those time series. Those tests are aimed at showing the pitfalls of the blind use of mathematical or statistical techniques on climate data.We apply those methods to real climatic data from temperature variations over the last century, and the Vostok ice core deuterium record over the last glacial cycle. Then we show how interpretations on the dynamics of climate can be derived on those time scales. 相似文献
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An overview of the applicability of a typical single‐mode pushover method (the N2 method) and two typical multi‐mode pushover methods (the modal pushover analysis (MPA) and incremental response spectrum analysis (IRSA) methods) for the analysis of single column bent viaducts in the transverse direction is presented. Previous research, which was limited to relatively short viaducts supported by few columns, has been extended to longer viaducts with more bents. The single‐mode N2 method is accurate enough for bridges where the effective modal mass of the fundamental mode is at least 80% of the total mass. The applicability of this method depends on (a) the ratio of the stiffness of the superstructure to that of the bents and (b) the strength of the bents. In short bridges with few columns, the accuracy of the N2 method increases as the seismic intensity increases, whereas in long viaducts (e.g. viaducts with lengths greater than 500 m) the method is in general less effective. In the case of the analyzed moderately irregular long viaducts, which are common in construction design practice, the MPA method performed well. For the analysis of bridges where the modes change significantly, depending on the seismic intensity, the IRSA method is in principle more appropriate, unless a viaduct is torsionally sensitive. In such cases, all simplified methods should be used with care. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Y-K. Tung K. -C. Yeh 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1993,7(2):131-145
Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared. 相似文献
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D. Labat C. T. Hoang J. Masbou A. Mangin I. Tchiguirinskaia S. Lovejoy D. Schertzer 《水文研究》2013,27(25):3708-3717
Karstic watersheds are highly complex hydrogeological systems that are characterized by a multiscale behaviour corresponding to the different pathways of water in these systems. The main issue of karstic spring discharge fluctuations consists in the presence and the identification of characteristic time scales in the discharge time series. To identify and characterize these dynamics, we acquired, for many years at the outlet of two karstic watersheds in South of France, discharge data at 3‐mn, 30‐mn and daily sampling rate. These hydrological records constitute to our knowledge the longest uninterrupted discharge time series available at these sampling rates. The analysis of the hydrological records at different levels of detail leads to a natural scale analysis of these time series in a multifractal framework. From a universal class of multifractal models based on cascade multiplicative processes, the time series first highlights two cut‐off scales around 1 and 16 h that correspond to distinct responses of the aquifer drainage system. Then we provide estimates of the multifractal parameters α and C1 and the moment of divergence qD corresponding to the behaviour of karstic systems. These results constitute the first estimates of the multifractal characteristics of karstic spingflows based on 10 years of high‐resolution discharge time series and should lead to several improvements in rainfall‐karstic springflow simulation models. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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地震时间序列的周期图分析方法和极大熵谱分析方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用华北地震区的地震资料（1000～1977）,对地震时间序列进行了周期图分析和极大熵谱分析,提取了隐含在随机噪声中的隐含周期。结果表明,这两种方法所得结果很接近,地震应变能√Ei;释放的隐含周期利用周期图分析提取的主要周期是30年、245年和305年,极大熵谱分析方法提取的主要周期是30年、240年和300年。这三个主要周期存在“倍30”的关系,240年和300年周期是30年周期的整数倍。30年周期反映了各活跃幕中的幕式活动规律,300年周期同各活跃期高潮时段之间的时间差的平均值相符,华北自1000年以来的四个活跃期高潮时段之间的时间差平均值是300年。 相似文献
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Size and Fourier-shape characteristics of quartz sand grains were determined by computerized image analysis in order to distinguish between aeolian and fluvial soil parent materials in the Dallol Bosso in Niger. Factor analysis of grain-size distributions gave four sand end-members that can be related to fluvial transport dynamics operating when the sediments were initially deposited. The medium to fine (and more angular shaped) sand fractions are being reworked by wind. Aeolian deposits were well sorted whereas fluvial deposits were poorly sorted in both size and shape. Although gross-shape characteristics (lower harmonics of Fourier series expansion) indicated a common source rock for all sands, the aeolian sands were well rounded whereas the fluvial sands tended to be more angular (upper harmonics of Fourier series). 相似文献
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1990年以来北京密云水库主要水环境因子时空分布特征 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
根据19902011年密云水库共12个监测点的月监测资料,采用聚类分析研究各监测点水环境相似性及空间分布特征,采用因子分析识别影响水质的主要因子并评价各采样点的综合水质.通过绝对主成分多元回归分析,获得汛期和非汛期各因子对各水质指标的贡献率.利用季节性Kendall检验及流量调节检验对密云水库库区水化学特征和水质状况时空分布特征进行了研究.结果表明：汛期水质主要受到农业营养物质的影响,其次为生物化学因素和有机物的影响.非汛期水质主要受到农牧业排放因素的影响,其次为人类活动和生物化学因素的影响.因子得分综合评价显示,汛期辛庄桥、内湖和大关桥综合水质较差,潮河、库西和白河综合水质较好.非汛期辛庄桥、石佛桥和大关桥综合水质较差,库东、套里和恒河综合水质较好.主要水质指标的年际变化规律不同,但最终都趋于平稳.与潮河、白河入库水质变化相比,库区水质变化趋势较小,上游入库水质和库区水质都整体趋好.除白河入库的总氮和总磷外,其他监测指标的变化趋势经流量调节前后基本一致,表明流量并不是引起水质趋势变化的主要因素,水质的变化主要是由于污染源变化而引起. 相似文献
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Similarity and scaling theory are applied to soil physics, specifically to several parameters of unsaturated soil water movement. Following a dimensional analysis of Richards' equation, a mechanical similarity criterion of the hydraulic parameters is developed. Dimensionless factors which conform to assumptions of kinematic and dynamic mechanical similarity in the flow system are converted to relations using the scale factor a derived under the assumption of geometric similarity. As an example, the infiltration process is assessed through scaling of the parameters in Philip's equation, using experimental data from double-ring infiltration measurements at 54 locations in a study catchment as the scaling test. 相似文献
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泰安台压容差应变仪１９９１年投入观测以来，为确保资料正常、连续，对井上仪器，探头引线及井下探头３个环节的干扰因素进行了排除工作。整点值资料已连续４年，缺数不超过４８小时，采用多种方法判定异常，发现改进的多道维纳滤波方法处理的资料，对４００ｋｍ范围内的中旨地震有明显的异常显示。 相似文献